Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

niran
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 05 Apr 2014 12:43

Mathura seat:
Hema malini is contesting as BJP contestant
against her is RLD chief's son and sitting MP Jayant Chowdhari
point to note in 2009 RLD and BJP together fought the elections and Jayant won on the works of
BJP cadres, the information is mine inferences are yours.

Singha
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 05 Apr 2014 13:04

on the vote bank of converted christians, original christians scared by anti BJP psyops, mushrooming high growth IM "liberated areas" ruled by shahi imams and maulvis and urban spoilt brat sickular Hindus, the congis actually have a very sound plan to remain a very strong national player in the decades to come if it remains united and intact under a Supreme Leader.
there are also states where INC has genuinely strong local orgs like karnataka separate from the above issues.
there are states where the people are sheeple and will vote in INC despite INC burning the house down - assam.

Kerala, TN, Karnataka, Assam, Seemandhra, Telengana, Chattisgarh, UP, Bihar, Assam , Punjab, Haryana... 12 major states plus Cashemere

think long term. avoid gloating over whatever calamity is in store for the INC probably in 2014 and think of 2019, 2024 , 2029 how the dynamics will change as we age and our kids generation has to try and prosper in this country.


think how these broad secular trends of increasing congi vote bank can be split or turned back. by middle of this century couldnt it happen that assam is 75% IM and so too UP and Bihar?

think of 2014 as potentially just a stalingrad moment where the momentum of the war could change....but its a long way to Kiev ... let alone warsaw and Berlin reichstag.

member_28468
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28468 » 05 Apr 2014 13:21

I saw amit shah statement and he is right i say moderate

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby VikramS » 05 Apr 2014 13:23

Singha,
Very well said. The dynasty needs to be buried, so that it never comes back.
Then the rats will eat each other; and the battle lines will be drawn in black and white.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby niran » 05 Apr 2014 14:05

rumor mill overheating
it is being said that Veejay bahuguna the just sacked
Uttarakhand congress chief minister has refused tikit and
has left for faaren with his wife.

word also abound that he has requested a tikit for his son or else
will join BJP.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Paul » 05 Apr 2014 14:07

To defeat the Congress consistently, they need to strengthen and give higher importance to state level organization. State elections should be given higher importance than Lok Sabha. BJP Parliamentry board stuffed with rootless wonders like Jaswant, SS and MMS should not be making decisions at central level for entire party.

NM has been taking some steps in this direction. After this election the next focus should be on winning Bihar state in 2015 to keep entire North India out of CongI claws.

NM is the first Post Nehruvian era PM. He was born after 1947. He is not burdened with the baggage that other PMs carried before him. That is why this election is a watershed election.

Also they need to attack the dynasty remorsely...without any pity. The campaign on bringing black money back should start with the dynasty. If they can bring the dynasty down, half the job.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 05 Apr 2014 14:21

Surjit Bhalla in a detailed article gives BJP alone as many seats as rrNDTV is giving all of NDA.

http://epaper.financialexpress.com/c/2661457

Good read, IMHO. Take some salt along for the ride, however...

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 05 Apr 2014 14:41

More numbers based speculation. This time by Minhaz Merchant (of death?) in TOI

http://author.blogs.economictimes.com/h ... since-1977

Gives lotus 232 (seemed overly optimistic in about 10 seats, IMO) and INC 78.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kapilrdave » 05 Apr 2014 16:28

amdavadi wrote:Mortji,

I am not too sure about GDF, but there are atleast 5-6 minister in Guj govt visit & read brf regularly........

And I'm too sure that some of the members are already calling the shots. They are only going to get bigger.

@SoonToBeDarkLords don't you forget our dharmik demands or else I will re-start posting in 'making fun' thread :twisted: .

Image

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 05 Apr 2014 16:45

Shahi imam is not different than Congi. For him, like a true secularist, muslims are just a vote bank. Only the muslims can get destroy this secularism which is basically a gun at their head which prevents them from joining the national mainsteam and enjoying the fruits of development and progress!

subhamoy.das
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 05 Apr 2014 16:46

paid media is already started to bay for Amit Shah's head for showing the true colors of "communalism" while they remain silent when congi munro openly asks muslims to vote for her.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 05 Apr 2014 17:27

Even the kerala churches are openly endorsing their picks it seems?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 05 Apr 2014 17:38

Hari Seldon wrote:Surjit Bhalla in a detailed article gives BJP alone as many seats as rrNDTV is giving all of NDA.

http://epaper.financialexpress.com/c/2661457

Good read, IMHO. Take some salt along for the ride, however...

In the IBN Live tracker, when Rajdeep posed a question, Surjit started his reply with his point of BJP alone getting 250+, Rajdeep immediately cut him off and reminded viewers that the tracker gives BJP only 208-2016.

Gosh, why did Karan thapar move to HT, cannot watch him for more than 2 mins. Rahul kanwal wa so watchable.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 05 Apr 2014 18:20

Singha wrote:on the vote bank of converted christians, original christians scared by anti BJP psyops, mushrooming high growth IM "liberated areas" ruled by shahi imams and maulvis and urban spoilt brat sickular Hindus, the congis actually have a very sound plan to remain a very strong national player in the decades to come if it remains united and intact under a Supreme Leader.
there are also states where INC has genuinely strong local orgs like karnataka separate from the above issues.
there are states where the people are sheeple and will vote in INC despite INC burning the house down - assam.

Kerala, TN, Karnataka, Assam, Seemandhra, Telengana, Chattisgarh, UP, Bihar, Assam , Punjab, Haryana... 12 major states plus Cashemere

think long term. avoid gloating over whatever calamity is in store for the INC probably in 2014 and think of 2019, 2024 , 2029 how the dynamics will change as we age and our kids generation has to try and prosper in this country.


think how these broad secular trends of increasing congi vote bank can be split or turned back. by middle of this century couldnt it happen that assam is 75% IM and so too UP and Bihar?

think of 2014 as potentially just a stalingrad moment where the momentum of the war could change....but its a long way to Kiev ... let alone warsaw and Berlin reichstag.



You are absolutely right. What needs to be pointed out is that Indic civilization is inherently democratic where minorities such as Christians and Muslims have nothing to fear and their lives will improve dramatically in the combined pursuit of liberty, justice and happiness. Our civilization is not marked by endless wars, the mass slaughter of animals, and vast exploitation of the earth's resources, but one that seeks out the understanding of the universe around us and brings humans consciousness to an understanding of God. Let's turn the clock all the way back to the time of the great institutions of learning on the banks of the Indus and Ganges valleys such as Taxila, Benares, and Nalanda. Where we can pick up the pieces where the Indic civilization that was on the cusp of learning calculus and advance science. Where would human civilization be today if the Indic civilization weren't interrupted? I am sure today we would be spreading human (Indic) civilization in to the stars.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Karan M » 05 Apr 2014 18:37

Ultimately weakness respects strength. When the Hindutva crowd demonstrates effective and muscular governance bringing benefits for India, many of the mullahs and preachers who lead their flocks will slowly and steadily lose a portion of their crowds. Their will always be oil droplets who seek to be separate from the water. That's their choice to make. The average Indian and Hindu has to shed his diffidence and stop bending backwards to integrate those who dont want to be integrated and end up becoming a confused, weak entity in the process. Common sense will drive all these groups to seek an accommodation as versus asking them to change their belief systems and integrate/cooperate/etc etc. A strong, united, just, prosperous Hindu society will automatically make many of the patsies who follow their fraud leaders without question, to open their eyes and understand that they too belong to a civilization which is resurgent and is regaining its rightful place in the world.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 05 Apr 2014 18:59

Here are all the March Surveys Collated

Image

So the best number to use is the minimum of all surveys IMHO. So BJP close to 180 is a reasonable number to expect.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 05 Apr 2014 19:06

Thanks for this - very interesting and informative. Lots of work for BJP to do - and lots of sound ground campaigning and mobilization needed.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 05 Apr 2014 19:09


subhamoy.das
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 05 Apr 2014 19:13

This would be the worst case number to expect , not a reasonable number to expect

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 05 Apr 2014 19:26

subhamoy.das wrote:This would be the worst case number to expect , not a reasonable number to expect


the fact is that surveys always overestimate BJP simply because none of these survey orgs have teams that go to deep rural seats where cong invariably wins. So imho, reasonable expectations from actual elections = worst case from surveys.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 05 Apr 2014 19:30

So BJP is going to pull on its own at least 180 seats. Not bad, not good. 180 is a very disappointing number. To put it mildly it is disastrous.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby rajithn » 05 Apr 2014 19:38

SwamyG wrote:So BJP is going to pull on its own at least 180 seats. Not bad, not good. 180 is a very disappointing number. To put it mildly it is disastrous.


It's the worst, worst case scenario. For God's sake!!!

Why are we so ready to whine? I understand that we have also exhibited unusual levels of hubris even though the elections are actually yet to commence. But to immediately cry "Catastrophe!" without even reading the original post where he clearly mentions he has taken the lowest poll numbers!!

Take a deep breath. "Om Shanti. Om Shanti. Om Shanti." :)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby subhamoy.das » 05 Apr 2014 20:23

If BJP is around 180 then Congress will be around 120 if not more ( 300 seats between these 2 parties ). Which states will congress get 120 seats from? All big ones are now out of its reach - ground reality and not opinion data points have confirmed this.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Comer » 05 Apr 2014 20:41

Thanks muraliravi, I was looking for the same thing, the summation of minimum predicted in each state, not average of total! I am keeping this as the baseline when waiting for results on May 16.


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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 05 Apr 2014 20:56

niran wrote:rumor mill overheating
it is being said that Veejay bahuguna the just sacked
Uttarakhand congress chief minister has refused tikit and
has left for faaren with his wife.

word also abound that he has requested a tikit for his son or else
will join BJP.


BJP can follow the Apaddharma of Sri Krishna!

As he killed/defeated various Asuras, he made their Sons to take oath to be Dharmic before making them kings of their fathers' kingdoms. But the key is that he ensured that this entire dynastic structure is killed in Mahabharata War!

BJP too can follow the same strategy. Get as many congress families into BJP as possible. Select a (relatively) Dharmic family member as the candidate of the family.

Ensure that this whole dynastic structure gets removed (not physically of course) in the upcoming MB war to make Bharat, the Hindu Rashtra, a Super Power!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 05 Apr 2014 21:01

not just mahabharata this is seen in many other stories as well. evil kings were put down but their dharmic brothers or sons allowed to retain the throne.

ravana's brother got to rule lanka after the ramayana.

sugreeva became king after his brother vali was killed by rama.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby krishnan » 05 Apr 2014 21:05



:shock: weird name, i only thought there was poilce station by that name in pureland

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 05 Apr 2014 21:07

Of Course GD.

The whole process is to ensure various networks get their fair representation in power structures while the collective Rashtra ensures that only Dharmic elements of those networks get to represent them.

Ambedkar ji tried to do this by demanding fair share of Backward networks in power structures but he fumbled a bit on Dharmic aspect. He was flowing with the wind of Western Universalism (WU) of his times.

Now the real nature of WU is better understood. And it is also time to assert Dharmic Hindu (SD) identity.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 05 Apr 2014 21:17

muraliravi, Please add one more column, Average of the surveys, As central limit theorem shows we results get to converge. And then compare it to the link posted by RajeshA which also has that column.

Thanks,

ramana

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RamaY » 05 Apr 2014 21:20

Also a most likely column using this formula

(Max + 4xAvg + Min)/6

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SandeepA » 05 Apr 2014 21:23

muraliravi wrote:Here are all the March Surveys Collated

Image

So the best number to use is the minimum of all surveys IMHO. So BJP close to 180 is a reasonable number to expect.


Where are the numbers for Telangana/Seemandhra here?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 05 Apr 2014 21:24

Singha wrote:not just mahabharata this is seen in many other stories as well. evil kings were put down but their dharmic brothers or sons allowed to retain the throne.

ravana's brother got to rule lanka after the ramayana.

sugreeva became king after his brother vali was killed by rama.


Jarasandha's son Sahdeva appointed king of Girivraja(Rajgir in modern times)

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Anantha » 05 Apr 2014 21:34

http://vimeo.com/90870480

The real story of Ishrat jahan the LeT terrorist

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SwamyG » 05 Apr 2014 22:02

rajithn wrote:
SwamyG wrote:So BJP is going to pull on its own at least 180 seats. Not bad, not good. 180 is a very disappointing number. To put it mildly it is disastrous.


It's the worst, worst case scenario. For God's sake!!!

Why are we so ready to whine? I understand that we have also exhibited unusual levels of hubris even though the elections are actually yet to commence. But to immediately cry "Catastrophe!" without even reading the original post where he clearly mentions he has taken the lowest poll numbers!!

Take a deep breath. "Om Shanti. Om Shanti. Om Shanti." :)

I read that Saar, I know he took the minimum from every survey. I am saying if BJP gets 180 it is very bad. I am not saying BJP is going to get ONLY 180. There is difference in the two points.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby rajithn » 05 Apr 2014 22:37

SwamyG wrote:I read that Saar, I know he took the minimum from every survey. I am saying if BJP gets 180 it is very bad. I am not saying BJP is going to get ONLY 180. There is difference in the two points.


Thank you for clarifying.

While I spend mucho time reading through BRF everyday and follow many, if not all, of the opinion polls, my personal belief is that the 2014 election is a very different animal from anything we have seen thus far. As you are aware, Indian elections are not usually psephologist friendly and I believe the 2014 elections more so; there are parameters many people are not considering, by intent/design or because they don't know how to handle these parameters.

In many states we are going to see the old 'caste orientation' calculations being thrown out of the window. NaMo's record and his admirable persistence in highlighting the issues he is, are driving people to think differently. And this is going to reflect in the results, come mid-May 2014.

I firmly believe we are going to be pleasantly surprised with the results.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 05 Apr 2014 22:50

ramana wrote:muraliravi, Please add one more column, Average of the surveys, As central limit theorem shows we results get to converge. And then compare it to the link posted by RajeshA which also has that column.

Thanks,

ramana


Here you go sir,

Please note that I have used a 50% weight reduction factor for IBTL as I see them to be very biased towards BJP.

RamaY sir, your formula will make sense under normal circumstances, but I find some inherent biases in these surveys, lets skip that for now.

I have not included TG/Seemandhra simply because the alliance is fluid and I will put my analyst head and say reliable surveys give BJP a big zero in both states, TDP is not part of this table as these are just BJP numbers.

Image

Anyway, my prediction stays with the minimum, I dont expect them to go below 175 seats or above 190 seats. 175-190 will be their final tally.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Vriksh » 05 Apr 2014 22:59

Chutia is pronounced as Sutia.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby shyamoo » 05 Apr 2014 23:04

rajithn wrote:While I spend mucho time reading through BRF everyday and follow many, if not all, of the opinion polls, my personal belief is that the 2014 election is a very different animal from anything we have seen thus far. As you are aware, Indian elections are not usually psephologist friendly and I believe the 2014 elections more so; there are parameters many people are not considering, by intent/design or because they don't know how to handle these parameters.

In many states we are going to see the old 'caste orientation' calculations being thrown out of the window. NaMo's record and his admirable persistence in highlighting the issues he is, are driving people to think differently. And this is going to reflect in the results, come mid-May 2014.

I firmly believe we are going to be pleasantly surprised with the results.

Exactly my thoughts too. BJP is going to get 272+ on its own... From my keyboard to God's ears!!!!!

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanku » 05 Apr 2014 23:12

Well BJP is certainly doing better than even ABV years -- by about 10% (based on surveys)

So BJP should be expected to best the previous best tally by at least 10%.

Simple non-statistician approach to things.


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