Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Apr 2014 16:57

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 9m
Not very long queues after 5 PM, so polling closed in most polling booths. Better than expected show by BJP, unlike what pre-polls suggested

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 16:58

आज तक ‏@aajtak 1h

BREAKING NEWS: कांग्रेस मुसलमानों की सबसे बड़ी दुश्मन: शिया धर्मगुरु कल्बे जव्वाद... #Aajtak... http://bit.ly/Live_Breaking_News …

Trans >> Congress is the biggest enemy of Muslims - Shia cleric.

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 3m

Rattled Ajit Jogi of @INCIndia puts up multiple Chandulal Sahu's against him to sabotage the BJP candidate of same name... #Moron ..

Niti Central ‏@NitiCentral 15m

Congress dismantled helipad to prevent its use by Modi in Kerala http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/07/c ... 08613.html …

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 17:20

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 33m

Assam registers 63.37% voter turnout till 3.30 PM; Tezpur: 64.80%, Kaliabor: 65.59%, Jorhat: 61.92%, Dibrugarh: 60.50%, Lakhimpur - 64.03%

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 11m

Estimated 72% votes cast in Assam - Tezpur recorded 73% voting, Jorhat 75%, Lakhimpur 67%, Dibrugarh 70% and Koliabor 72% #India2014

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 25m

Doubt if even a single Muslim voted for BJP, while almost 70%+ voted for Congress in Assam; likely to be the all India template mostly

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 17:39

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 28m

EC removes District Magistrate, 5 SPs from poll duty in West Bengal following complaints against them: WB CEO Sunil Gupta.

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 29m

"I will not remove any official," Mamata Banerjee said reacting to Election Commission order of transfer of five SPs, one DM in West Bengal.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 17:42

If anyone is looking for voting trends/exit poll leaks etc.., you will not find it on any website, twitter is the only place where you can get it. If you are already on twitter, you know who to follow, but if you are new to twitter, you may want to start with 5forty3 (all india), atanubhuyan (for assam) etc..

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Apr 2014 17:44

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 19s
#PredictionOfTheDay B.K. Handique of Congress who has never lost Jorhat in almost 30 years is losing to BJP this time!!! #AbsoluteStunner

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 07 Apr 2014 17:45

Looks like Modi's 3d speech postponed.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 07 Apr 2014 17:48

svenkat wrote:http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Coimbatore/nilgiris-bjp-candidates-papers-rejected/article5882800.ece

The hopes of the BJP to represent the Nilgiris Parliamentary Constituency in the Lok Sabha were shattered on Monday with the nomination papers of its candidate S. Gurumurthy being rejected after a scrutiny.

Stating that the papers were carefully gone through by the officials concerned in the presence of the party's representatives, the District Election Officer and Nilgiris Collector P. Sankar told The Hindu that it had been found that rules relating to the filing of nominations had not been adhered to.

Since Forms A and B pertaining to the authorization of the party to contest the elections had not been submitted along with the papers on April 3, the candidate had been asked to produce them before 3 p.m. on April 5,the last day of filing nominations. However they had been produced only at about 6.p.m. on that day. Hence the papers of Mr. Gurumurthy and the substitute BJP candidate D. Anbarasan had been rejected.

How does such a royal f*#k up happen?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 17:52

India Today ‏@IndiaToday 2m

We expect the turnout to cross 75% in Assam: Deputy Election Commissioner Alok Shukla. News Flash: http://goo.gl/vH4mnO

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 07 Apr 2014 17:58

abhik wrote:
svenkat wrote:http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Coimbatore/nilgiris-bjp-candidates-papers-rejected/article5882800.ece

either every basic mistake by the candidate , or something is not right. Form A, B is very basic and usually candidates never forget to submit it. You never forget these 2 forms

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 18:25

pankajs wrote:
India Today ‏@IndiaToday 2m

We expect the turnout to cross 75% in Assam: Deputy Election Commissioner Alok Shukla. News Flash: http://goo.gl/vH4mnO

Not to throw a dampener, http://www.indiavotes.com/state/summary/1

Scroll down, Assam has seen many elections where voting % has crossed 75%, but results in congress landslide. So I would not pin much hope on the turnout. But that said, overall BJP seems to be doing ok, may win 2-3 seats in Assam, which is much more than what i expected.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 07 Apr 2014 18:44

Please post twitter-leaks for the twitter-nude to keep the morale of the mujaheedin up.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Apr 2014 18:45

niran wrote:
till noon 39% in Assam
41% in Tripura
another six hours to go, if it reaches or crosses 83% then consider Assam and Tripura Saffronised.

Tripura crossed 83%, check the general elections dhaaga.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Apr 2014 19:06

muraliravi wrote: Not to throw a dampener, http://www.indiavotes.com/state/summary/1

Scroll down, Assam has seen many elections where voting % has crossed 75%, but results in congress landslide.

Those were Vidhan Sabha elections. The 3 times it crossed 75% for Parliamentary elections included the highly charged Andolan period (anti-Bangladshi agitation) and the euphoric post Assam Accord elections. They were definitely "wave" elections like the present one undoubtedly is. The normal for Lok Sabha elections for Assam is in the 50-60% range.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 07 Apr 2014 19:14

muraliravi wrote: Not to throw a dampener, http://www.indiavotes.com/state/summary/1

Scroll down, Assam has seen many elections where voting % has crossed 75%, but results in congress landslide. So I would not pin much hope on the turnout. But that said, overall BJP seems to be doing ok, may win 2-3 seats in Assam, which is much more than what i expected.

MuraliRavi-ji,
Voting has crossed 75% in 3 Parliamentary elections after 77. In 2 of them, Congress has faced a defeat (AGP+ winning 9/14, Cong 2/14 in 84, and AGP+ 6/14, Cong 5/14 in 96. Only in 91 did the Cong win 8/14, but this was the Ram wave election and AGP was split between AGP and AGP (P) (of Prafulla Mahanta), so anti-Cong votes were split 3 way. In fact, Cong got only 28% of the votes in 91.

There is another factor you may be overlooking. High voting is generally seen in lower Assam, the Barak valley, and the polarised seats like Mangaldoi, and Nagaon in Central Assam. Upper Assam generally sees a much lower voting share (usually around 60-65%, with only Tezpur and Lakhimpur seeing a higher vote, due to tribal vote). If upper Assam has a voting share of 75%+, we can expect much much higher voting in other regions of Assam, and I would not be surprised if the total voting percentage of Assam is well above 80% in the end.

High voting in upper Assam means that the Yindoos of the region have finally moved to vote. Further, looking at http://ceoassam.nic.in/election/ls2014/ ... Report.pdf I can see that voting has been lower in Titabar (Tarun Gogoi's constituency), but is much higher in the Sonowal-Kachwari and Mishing tribal areas of Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh (which indicates to me that cong has had trouble getting its Hindu voters to the booths, while Sonowal-Kachwaris have congregated around their fellow tribal Sarbananda Sonowal). If this is true in the final analysis, I would not be surprised if the BJP wins 2-3/5 constituencies that went to polls today.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 07 Apr 2014 19:14

Except for Mrs.Lekhi all other BJP spokespersons seem incapable to clearly put across their point coherently and keep beating around the bush! Mrs.Nirmala Seetharaman when given a chance does speak well but they usually gang up on her. This Mrs. Vani is unable to speak coherently and is hardly making any sense.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 07 Apr 2014 19:17

Supratik wrote:Please post twitter-leaks for the twitter-nude to keep the morale of the mujaheedin up.

I second this. This may be frowned upon here(I think there was a kerfuffle before) but people who are not on twitter like me will find it useful.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 07 Apr 2014 19:18

Nirmala Seetharaman is below par,just not good enough,imho.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 19:28

How sickular!

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 5m

Tharoor accused of bribing pastors in a bid to buy Christian votes http://ibnlive.in.com/news/tharoor-accu ... 37-81.html …

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 19:29

nageshks wrote: High voting in upper Assam means that the Yindoos of the region have finally moved to vote. Further, looking at http://ceoassam.nic.in/election/ls2014/ ... Report.pdf I can see that voting has been lower in Titabar (Tarun Gogoi's constituency), but is much higher in the Sonowal-Kachwari and Mishing tribal areas of Lakhimpur and Dibrugarh (which indicates to me that cong has had trouble getting its Hindu voters to the booths, while Sonowal-Kachwaris have congregated around their fellow tribal Sarbananda Sonowal). If this is true in the final analysis, I would not be surprised if the BJP wins 2-3/5 constituencies that went to polls today.

Nagesh ji,

I guess you are right, I was just trying to rake up headwinds. But other sources are also indicating that BJP has done pretty good today. I will be glad if they get 2-3 seats in entire Assam.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 19:35

Ratnakar Sadasyula ‏@ScorpiusMaximus 25m

Massive increase in voting % in Jorhat, was 64.65 in 2009, now it is 75%, huge jump, this could be a big upset here.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 19:40

abhik wrote:{quote="svenkat"}http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Coimbatore/nilgiris-bjp-candidates-papers-rejected/article5882800.ece

The hopes of the BJP to represent the Nilgiris Parliamentary Constituency in the Lok Sabha were shattered on Monday with the nomination papers of its candidate S. Gurumurthy being rejected after a scrutiny.

Stating that the papers were carefully gone through by the officials concerned in the presence of the party's representatives, the District Election Officer and Nilgiris Collector P. Sankar told The Hindu that it had been found that rules relating to the filing of nominations had not been adhered to.

Since Forms A and B pertaining to the authorization of the party to contest the elections had not been submitted along with the papers on April 3, the candidate had been asked to produce them before 3 p.m. on April 5,the last day of filing nominations. However they had been produced only at about 6.p.m. on that day. Hence the papers of Mr. Gurumurthy and the substitute BJP candidate D. Anbarasan had been rejected.{/quote}
How does such a royal f*#k up happen?

Candidate negligence.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Apr 2014 19:43

atanu bhuyan ‏@atanubhuyan 21m
After first phase election in assam my prediction : cong 1, bjp 4 #Assam #Elections2014

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 19:44

Jaideep A. Prabhu ‏@orsoraggiante 2h

UR Ananthamurthy threatens to remain in India if Narendra Modi becomes PM: http://goo.gl/DXtFdP HT @TRVivek cc @ThejasMysore | Cheh!

ANI ‏@ANI_news 34m

Also expressed concern that its ironical that parts of Rahul ji's speech was blacked out yesterday, media needs to take note: AM Singhvi

Shame on MSM! After having taking money to show Rahul ji's full speech why blackout. Media needs to make amends.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Apr 2014 19:50

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 19m
NDA has already lost 2 seats in Tamil Nadu even before polling began.PMK papers too rejected in Chidambaram.Wonder what's going on

So NDA is fighting only on 541 seats!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 19:51

RajeshA wrote:maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 19m
NDA has already lost 2 seats in Tamil Nadu even before polling began.PMK papers too rejected in Chidambaram.Wonder what's going on

So NDA is fighting only on 541 seats!

Total Callousness, I see no conspiracy here, If they cant file their papers properly, why contest elections?

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 07 Apr 2014 19:53

In chidambaram,the backup candidate-the wife of the original candidate is now contesting.her papers have been accepted.BJP has made an appeal in Nilgiris.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 07 Apr 2014 19:56

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/Home/Lok-Sabha-Elections-2014/News/PMK-candidate-Manirathinems-nomination-rejected-his-wife-to-contest-polls-in-Chidam
this worthy joined PMK recently,it seems.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home/lok-sabha-elections-2014/news/Congress-leader-Manirathinam-joins-PMK-after-being-denied-ticket-in-Chidambaram-Lok-Sabha-seat/articleshow/32975379.cms

Manirathinam, a realtor from Nattarmangalam near Kattumannarkoil, who joined the Congress four years ago, had been nurturing the constituency since then hoping that the party would nominate him to contest the 2014 Lok Sabha polls. However, much to his and his supporters' disappointment, the party fielded former MP and MLA P Vellalperumal from Chidambaram.

A section of his supporters allegedly gave vent to their anger by throwing a torch through the window of the party office at Manjakuppam in the town limits at 6am on March 21. Morning walkers, who spotted smoke emanating from building, alerted the party leaders who rushed to the office and doused the fire.

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 07 Apr 2014 20:07

pankajs wrote:Jaideep A. Prabhu ‏@orsoraggiante 2h

UR Ananthamurthy threatens to remain in India if Narendra Modi becomes PM: http://goo.gl/DXtFdP HT @TRVivek cc @ThejasMysore | Cheh!

Its a pity. I was about to post a request to see if anyone was keeping a list of all those about to leave India so we could say bye bye to and now one man short even before the race has really begun. Anyway,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5b6UCCm7f4

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 07 Apr 2014 20:26

https://twitter.com/ElectionExpress (Rahul Kanwal) is a red bus that uses Indian drones flying at 30 kmph to take aerial shots, apparently.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 20:38

Isn't UR Anathamurthy's claim a strawman? Who asked him to leave? And who in their right mind will take him?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 20:39

So whats the estimates/surveys from day 1 of the elections?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 07 Apr 2014 20:44

Lisa wrote: Its a pity. I was about to post a request to see if anyone was keeping a list of all those about to leave India so we could say bye bye to and now one man short even before the race has really begun. Anyway,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5b6UCCm7f4

Harsh Mander and Teesta Setalvad will join/have joined Haas school of Business.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 20:48

Lisa wrote: Its a pity. I was about to post a request to see if anyone was keeping a list of all those about to leave India so we could say bye bye to and now one man short even before the race has really begun. Anyway,

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E5b6UCCm7f4

Not yet buddy. They are all recouping outside India and will strike back with a force multiplier. The next govt needs to be prepared for that onslaught.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Apr 2014 20:51

ramana wrote:So whats the estimates/surveys from day 1 of the elections?

total seats that went to polls - 6
BJP 4/3
INC 1/2
CPM 1

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 Apr 2014 20:51

4 out of 5 optimistic 2 pessimistic in Assam for the Pandavas.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Apr 2014 20:56

Published on Apr 7, 2014
By Dr. Praveen Patil
Good Evening India: The battle for 2014 commences!

Congress, which probably is depending on Assam as the only option beyond Karnataka-Kerala (and to some extent Maharashtra) where it can possibly get a decent haul of MPs for the next Lok Sabha, has faced a rude shock on day one of polling and is now probably hoping that the next phase in this state would be a lot easier for the party. If day one of the 2014 poll battle is anything to go by, then we can expect a massive Modi wave on the 10th of April, a Thursday that will probably decide the course of India’s destiny. We, of course, would be present in full strength on that most important Thursday covering the entire length and breadth of the geography with absolutely stunning levels of ground reports and data!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 20:59

^^^, you beat me to it. If his report is true (i have no reason to doubt their accuracy as I has previously mentioned, they got the 4 state elections bang on, their exit polls were the best for all states including delhi), we are heading towards an awesome result.

Bear in mind, the guy is trying his best to tell us that BJP has done very very well without revealing much data since he does not want EC to block his site.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 07 Apr 2014 21:03

BJP is going to lose onlee!

No matter which button on EVM people press, the vote would go to Imam Bukhari onlee!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Apr 2014 21:04

Actual exit poll data is not needed. People do not vote on the basis of comprehensive data as much as information coming through the network of contacts within communities. Twitter just happens to be a new community in that regard. What Dr.Patil is doing is providing enough hints to state that tactical voting by one community will not do enough for them to act as a veto against the wishes of the larger population in a wave election - at least that's what the impressions during phase 1 indicate.