Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 21:10

How many seats go to polls on April 10th please?

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Apr 2014 21:16

Phase 2 (NE) - 7 seats Dec 9

Phase 3 - 91 seats Dec 10

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_gen ... tion,_2014

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Apr 2014 21:17

7 seats - april 9
91 seats - april 10
121 seats - april 17
117 seats - april 24
89 seats - april 30
64 - may 7
41 - may 12

so there are 6 big match days coming, not just one. just may has 105 seats in the balance.

so dhoti shivering is mandatory until may12 for sure. U.P. has polls on 5 days.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Apr 2014 21:17

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 473681.cms

April 7: Assam (5), Tripura (1)

April 9: Arunachal Pradesh (2), Manipur (1), Meghalaya (2), Mizoram (1), Nagaland (1)

April 10: Bihar (6), Chhattisgarh (1), Haryana (10), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Jharkhand (5), Kerala (20), Madhya Pradesh (9), Maharashtra (10), Odisha (10), Uttar Pradesh (10), Andaman and Nicobar (1), Chandigarh (1), Lakshadweep (1), Delhi (7)

April 12: Sikkim (1), Tripura (1), Assam (3)

April 17: Bihar (7), Chhattisgarh (3), Goa (2), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Jharkhand (5), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (10), Maharashtra (19), Manipur (1), Odisha (11), Rajasthan (20), Uttar Pradesh (11), West Bengal (4)

April 24: Assam (6), Bihar (7), Chhattisgarh (7), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Jharkhand (4), Madhya Pradesh (10), Maharashtra (19), Rajasthan (5), Tamil Nadu (39), Uttar Pradesh (12), West Bengal (6), Puducherry (1)

April 30: Andhra Pradesh (17), Bihar (7), Gujarat (26), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Punjab (13), Uttar Pradesh (14), West Bengal (9), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1), Daman and Diu (1)

May 7: Andhra Pradesh (25), Bihar (7), Jammu and Kashmir (2), Uttar Pradesh (15), Uttarakhand (5), West Bengal (6), Himachal Pradesh (4)

May 12: Bihar (6), Uttar Pradesh (18), West Bengal (17)

Vipin_Upadhyay · Post by **Vipin_Upadhyay** » 07 Apr 2014 21:19

ramana wrote:How many seats go to polls on April 10th please?

This is from ECI, it has complete schedule.

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/Schedule/Home.htm

http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/GE2014/Schedule/Phase3.htm

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 07 Apr 2014 21:20

muraliravi wrote:^^^, you beat me to it. If his report is true (i have no reason to doubt their accuracy as I has previously mentioned, they got the 4 state elections bang on, their exit polls were the best for all states including delhi), we are heading towards an awesome result.

Bear in mind, the guy is trying his best to tell us that BJP has done very very well without revealing much data since he does not want EC to block his site.

Muraliraviji,

Your statements made my day! The important thing is to get the middle class vote out. Many of us won't settle for anything less than an NDA 363+.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 Apr 2014 21:25

the word of caution - His method, intent, and effort cannot be doubted. Only shortcoming, where he needs x sample for a right prediction, he is trying to do with x/10 (mostly because of lack of resources, the guy is over 65, self confessed enthusiast, using his own money and little he got from others). Having said that, his exit poll may still be better than anyone else (which says a lot).

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Apr 2014 21:26

Dr.Patil has been running multiple appeals for contributions on his site. If you're concerned he's short on cash, use it to donate to his poll analysis effort.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 07 Apr 2014 21:27

Yogi_G wrote:Except for Mrs.Lekhi all other BJP spokespersons seem incapable to clearly put across their point coherently and keep beating around the bush! Mrs.Nirmala Seetharaman when given a chance does speak well but they usually gang up on her. This Mrs. Vani is unable to speak coherently and is hardly making any sense.

+1. Manytimes I feel like I would give a better response.

Not sure if it is their lack of 'presence of mind' OR an intentional effort to not appear snobbish!

They definitely need communication skills. They should be able to answer every question in 2 sentences. One to ridicule the sik_ul_islam and the other to provide an alternative (Bharatiya) perspective.

Something like on twitter. Put your answer in two tweets - one to show the fallacy in opposing view and second to show the native alternative.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 21:33

Thanks GD and Vivek.Rao. A lot of trying times ahead.

Hope BJP does not repeat Niligiris type fiasco again.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 21:39

vivek.rao wrote:http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 473681.cms

April 7: Assam (5), Tripura (1)

April 9: Arunachal Pradesh (2), Manipur (1), Meghalaya (2), Mizoram (1), Nagaland (1)

April 10: Bihar (6), Chhattisgarh (1), Haryana (10), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Jharkhand (5), Kerala (20), Madhya Pradesh (9), Maharashtra (10), Odisha (10), Uttar Pradesh (10), Andaman and Nicobar (1), Chandigarh (1), Lakshadweep (1), Delhi (7)

April 12: Sikkim (1), Tripura (1), Assam (3)

April 17: Bihar (7), Chhattisgarh (3), Goa (2), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Jharkhand (5), Karnataka (28), Madhya Pradesh (10), Maharashtra (19), Manipur (1), Odisha (11), Rajasthan (20), Uttar Pradesh (11), West Bengal (4)

April 24: Assam (6), Bihar (7), Chhattisgarh (7), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Jharkhand (4), Madhya Pradesh (10), Maharashtra (19), Rajasthan (5), Tamil Nadu (39), Uttar Pradesh (12), West Bengal (6), Puducherry (1)

April 30: Andhra Pradesh (17), Bihar (7), Gujarat (26), Jammu and Kashmir (1), Punjab (13), Uttar Pradesh (14), West Bengal (9), Dadra and Nagar Haveli (1), Daman and Diu (1)

May 7: Andhra Pradesh (25), Bihar (7), Jammu and Kashmir (2), Uttar Pradesh (15), Uttarakhand (5), West Bengal (6), Himachal Pradesh (4)

May 12: Bihar (6), Uttar Pradesh (18), West Bengal (17)

Wow., Bihar, J&K & UP goes to polls for a whole month!!!

Looks like have to worry on mulitple days for some states!

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Apr 2014 21:41

saravana wrote:
Supratik wrote:Please post twitter-leaks for the twitter-nude to keep the morale of the mujaheedin up.
I second this. This may be frowned upon here(I think there was a kerfuffle before) but people who are not on twitter like me will find it useful.

OT: You guys have to give up something saar

. I was not on FB and Twitter. But just for this election created a twitter account. Now my SHQ cribs I am on twitter all the time (apart from BRF). Even my 9-yr recognizes twitter and Modi. I don't do much on twitter, just retweet some of BRFites and other fanbois

.

archan · Post by **archan** » 07 Apr 2014 21:44

Ravishankar Prasad handing Meet Afzal his musharraf again and again on tv. India News. On manifesto.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 07 Apr 2014 22:02

ramana wrote:Thanks GD and Vivek.Rao. A lot of trying times ahead.

Hope BJP does not repeat Niligiris type fiasco again.

Lot of trying times.

Worried a lot. I don't see much of Modi in K'taka,AP,TN. We need a quick push.

My wife thinks I am little crazy but I know that if this year goes like 2009, my heart can't take it.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 07 Apr 2014 22:04

Alliance with BJP a political compulsion, says Chandrababu Naidu

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... eststories

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Apr 2014 22:06

Arnab Goswami joining News X after election
several big wig journalists going on sabbatical leave after election from CNNIBN And NDTV
prominent Journos from NDTV to change ship
@mediacrooks

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 07 Apr 2014 22:09

Idiot CBN is Knows that he is being fixed by mafia for 10 years and alone he can not withstand mafia and its B teams of TRS and Jagan. What is he complaining about now???

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 22:26

Suraj wrote:Dr.Patil has been running multiple appeals for contributions on his site. If you're concerned he's short on cash, use it to donate to his poll analysis effort.

I second that. I have already donated twice. If anything, we will have one decent barometer to evaluate any outside chance of EVM rigging.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 Apr 2014 22:32

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 07 Apr 2014 22:38

Shekhar Kapur ‏@shekharkapur 2h
Foreign Press seems reluctant 2 see Gandhi Family n Congress go. Insecure of an India governed by those not educated in West. They'll learn.

JohnTitor · Post by **JohnTitor** » 07 Apr 2014 22:42

gandharva wrote:Alliance with BJP a political compulsion, says Chandrababu Naidu

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... eststories

wtf? NaMo should keep this guy at arms length. Provide him with the minimum. These sort of statements just show that he will jump ship when he gets the chance.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 07 Apr 2014 22:45

Don't worry. Both BJP and TDP are using each other. That is how politics works unless you are ideologically on the same plane.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 07 Apr 2014 22:52

another Nitish Kumar in making

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 07 Apr 2014 22:57

The reports I read indicate CBN's intended audience was TDP members that are upset with him giving key seats to BJP.
And he was correct on 2002 issue as well. He reacted to initial brouhaha as a sikularist but corrected his course after court verdict came. I would put this same as Madhu Kishwar's u-turn (If I can call it that).

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Apr 2014 23:01

Assam. Image courtesy: NDTV

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 07 Apr 2014 23:03

IndraD wrote:Arnab Goswami joining News X after election
several big wig journalists going on sabbatical leave after election from CNNIBN And NDTV
prominent Journos from NDTV to change ship
@mediacrooks

Karan Thapar already moved to Headlines Today. Twitter mentioned Prannoy Roy's family buying property in South Africa (I cannot confirm it is true

)

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Apr 2014 23:05

something tells me BJP/team modi will get 40 seats from TN (15), KA (20) and KL(5) put together. may be i am hoping too much on KL, but I am pretty positive about TN (alagri++) and KA.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 23:07

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 23:10

So on average its ~10% greater than in 2009. Is that a wave or just turnout due to better facilities by EC!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 07 Apr 2014 23:21

ramana wrote:So on average its ~10% greater than in 2009. Is that a wave or just turnout due to better facilities by EC!

Both. But I can assure you that in a polarized world, more Assamese Hindus voted this time and that tells a lot. Atanu Bhuyan @atanubhuyan is tweeting 4/5 for BJP in the first round.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 07 Apr 2014 23:22

There's no claimed difference in facilities in 2014 as compared to 2009 . Only major difference is volume of news and information is much greater thanks to the internet and TV access. Clearly greater voting enthusiasm from youth and established population trying to push back against appeasement of migrants, suggesting general wave conditions.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 23:24

ramana wrote:So on average its ~10% greater than in 2009. Is that a wave or just turnout due to better facilities by EC!

We should also keep in mind the following

1. The voter turnout was already decent leaving little room for significant improvement
2. We should not expect too much wave effect in the far flung NE
3. BJP does not have a very strong cadre in these areas to do significant booth management and bring people to the poll area.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 07 Apr 2014 23:27

atanu bhuyan ‏@atanubhuyan 1h

For the first time, voters wearing ear-rings and different hair styles were seen casting votes #Assam #2014Lok

atanu bhuyan ‏@atanubhuyan 59m

They cast votes in support of Modi. I name them " Yo Yo voter" #NarendraModi

atanu bhuyan @atanubhuyan

Two union ministers Paban Singh Ghatowar, Ranee Narah will lose. Only consolation for Cong could be Gaurab Gogoi #2014Lok #Assam

atanu bhuyan ‏@atanubhuyan 1h

Ghatowar, Narah, along with Bhupen Bora and BK Handique could lose

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 1h

Extremely well networked and resourceful Local journalist agreeing with trends deciphered by @5Forty3 https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/ ... 1523074048 …

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 1h

Just to provide context. Upper Assam usually a strong Kangress bastion. Party Swept the region in 2011 https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/ ... 2418721793 …

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 07 Apr 2014 23:30

if all is well in deep down south,
then all is well way up in north.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 07 Apr 2014 23:34

ramana wrote:So on average its ~10% greater than in 2009. Is that a wave or just turnout due to better facilities by EC!

A local Congi journo on twitter gave 4 out of 5 to BJP.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 07 Apr 2014 23:36

pankajs wrote:How sickular!
CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 5m

Tharoor accused of bribing pastors in a bid to buy Christian votes http://ibnlive.in.com/news/tharoor-accu ... 37-81.html …

Tharoor = Useless, third-rate, fraud fellow. I can't see a single reason why he shouldn't be kicked out of Tvm and told never to come back.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 07 Apr 2014 23:37

The conclusion from the UP election was that the increase in turnout was just better facility. It could be different here, but one can hope increase, just because it is now easy to get voter card, many more voting machines (lower time) etc etc. TV penetration makes it more in your face. So lets see. It could be a wave, only if people shifted from one side to another, or one side sat it out.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 07 Apr 2014 23:41

Some more info,

Atanu used to be editor in chief of a local assam paper. His prediction track record is spotless in the past, predicted seat by seat correctly in 2011 assam assembly polls. If he says BJP will get 4/5 (with 2 seats ultra sure and 2 close contests), we can take that on stone. At least 2/5, last time it was 4 cong, 1 agp in these 5 seats that went to polls. So thats a minimum gain of 2 from the state where i expected the worst for BJP.

Let me jump ahead and say, april 10th will be a tsunami, if this is the trend in assam (and that too in areas of assam which are least affected by the illegal immigration issue), i can only imagine what western UP holds in store. Imran masood, start searching for a hideout

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Apr 2014 23:59

Folks set up a poll as a Good Judgment Project for BRF. Its trial run where we will work out the modalities. Please do post there your view. Only thing is you need to update your views after each round of polls are over.
Thanks,
ramana

manju · Post by **manju** » 08 Apr 2014 00:06

I think it is time for some one to do the jinx.

I think it was Dilbu bhai last time during the State elections in Nov/Dec 2013.