Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 08 Apr 2014 21:30

pankajs wrote:
MediaWatcher ‏@India_MSM 1h

Varanasi congress candidate had set a trader ablaze to take his property .watch this video http://www.timesnow.tv/Two-MLAs-shame-b ... 341608.cms …
MediaWatcher ‏@India_MSM 2h

2010 :: Varanasi congress candidate Ajay rai was in jail for Setting ablaze a seed trader http://www.siasat.com/english/news/seed ... eased-bail …

He was in BJP till 2009. He made sure MMJ doesn't lose by exiting from the race at the last moment and campaigning for MMJ. You have to understand Mafia war dynamics in Eastern UP. His elder brother Avdhesh Rai was murdered by Ansari.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Apr 2014 21:35

Singha wrote:they can run but must not be allowed to hide.
proper investigations have to be done on various crooks and the guilty brought to book.
we have friendly relations with most nations .

I feel UK will be the only safe refuge for any rats leaving their ship because that country revels in denying extradition requests for crimes committed in india under various sickular/white mans burden grounds.
if any crooks cannot be brought back, the next best is their empire must be ground to dust here and dust scattered into the ganges. all assets left behind must be seized and auctioned.

and their passports cancelled ofcourse with a interpol notice out.

MF Hussein drama makes more sense now. Letting chtya escape without Interpol notice to make him face courts on one hand and blaming Hindu mobs for his clearly insulting behavior.

disha · Post by **disha** » 08 Apr 2014 21:47

pankajs wrote:
MediaWatcher ‏@India_MSM 1h

Varanasi congress candidate had set a trader ablaze to take his property .watch this video http://www.timesnow.tv/Two-MLAs-shame-b ... 341608.cms …
MediaWatcher ‏@India_MSM 2h

2010 :: Varanasi congress candidate Ajay rai was in jail for Setting ablaze a seed trader http://www.siasat.com/english/news/seed ... eased-bail …

Be careful of India_MSM. He is a jerk. He called all Goans imbecile and railed against Goan CM during the nigerian episode. He later deleted his tweets. Just be careful of him, he is very much suspect.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 08 Apr 2014 21:54

Minority Vote Polarization happening against Modi in Pataliputra LS seat , Patna - Bihar

Lalu's daughter Misa of RJD vs Ram Kripal Yadav of BJP

.
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However, all is not lost for Lalu Prasad. His Muslim vote base is almost intact. Reports coming from the ground suggest that there has been a fast polarization of Muslim votes against Modi which could benefit the RJD. A couple of days ago, a joint meeting of a dozen Muslim organizations held in the Phulwarisharif locality of the state capital decided to vote against communalism and prevent any division in secular votes. The meeting appealed to the Muslim community not to fall into the trap of greed or come under any pressure, and asked them to be alert about 'communal forces' putting up dummy candidates to split Muslim votes. It asked Muslim women to cast their votes abandoning all household chores and advised them to keep their voter I-cards in safe custody till the polls. The development is enough to indicate which way the contest is moving. The Muslims are likely to distance themselves from the BJP more after the party raked up the Ram Mandir issue in its manifesto. “He is the right man in the wrong party,” said Abdul Rasul of Bikram, adding Ram Kripal was not a bad option as a candidate but he shouldn't have fought on a BJP ticket.
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Seems this seat is a very important battle for Lalu.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Apr 2014 21:55

^^^
Posted the tweets after checking out the links but as Gandharva saar pointed out I am not aware of the local dynamics.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Apr 2014 21:59

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 22m

Time for a Delhi update... Are you ready?

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 22m

1. SoniaG is very scared.. scared of losing her "Queenship".. She personally coaxed some candidates to contest elections agt top BJP guys

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 21m

2. A few lame Delhi journos are feeding foreign journos "Modi is a bigot, Modi doesnt know to play golf..he wont ever be in Delhi golf club"

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 21m

3. Every Congi crony journo in Delhi is trying to spin numbers for BJP.. but the lowest they have managed to get so far is 220...

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 20m

4. Hahaha.. as if Golf is the biggest concern in Modi's mind right now.. that indicates the luxury Delhi establishment is afraid of losing..

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 19m

5. Nobody from Cong was willing to contest Varanasi agt Modi.. the guy had to be coaxed and pushed... Other transactions cannot be revealed

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 18m

6. Modi's southern success has also upset a motherly politician in the south.. but she is too boxed in to mount any threat to him..

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 17m

7. The Delhi journos at @ndtv @ibnlive @timesnow have NO CLUE of whats going on in BJP.. they only PRETEND to know..

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 16m

8. Since BJP D4 is not calling the shots anymore.. Congi journos trying to get titbits abt Modi fm journos close to BJP.. but nothing coming

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 15m

9. I wrote last year "the real fears of Sonia".. and it has come to be true.. She is truly worried... understandably so..

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 15m

10. Former Indian diplomats who were so far pimping for Congress.. have also turned to the BJP fold... END ..

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 08 Apr 2014 22:02

kancha wrote:Azam Khan- Kargil was won by Muslim soldiers.
Can they sink any lower?
Someone pl download this vid in case it disappears.

[youtube=>>]Vydbrp00k4w[/<==youtube]

EC should send notice to Azam for plain bullsh1t. What kind of crap these people spread in the name of vote banking.

member_28173 · Post by **member_28173** » 08 Apr 2014 22:02

https://www.facebook.com/pages/Savita-B ... 6506656095

I am trying to convince Savita-Bhatti NOTA party to take Idea of Multiple Votes :p
Lets keep the fingers crossed

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Apr 2014 22:16

Congress accuses BJP of bringing out 'Rahul ki Ravanleela'
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... e]BAREILLY: Congress workers on Tuesday approached the election commission over the circulation of a book titled 'Rahul ki Ravanleela' in Badaun and adjoining areas. The 20-page book contains defamatory content on Rahul and also takes a swipe at other members of the Gandhi family. The Congress workers have alleged BJP's hand behind circulation of the book.[/quote]Pliss CON Pliss share it with us so that we can judge for ourselves if indeed the content is defamatory.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 08 Apr 2014 22:20

SaraLax wrote: Minority Vote Polarization happening against Modi in Pataliputra LS seat , Patna - Bihar

Lalu's daughter Misa of RJD vs Ram Kripal Yadav of BJP

.
.
However, all is not lost for Lalu Prasad. His Muslim vote base is almost intact. Reports coming from the ground suggest that there has been a fast polarization of Muslim votes against Modi which could benefit the RJD. A couple of days ago, a joint meeting of a dozen Muslim organizations held in the Phulwarisharif locality of the state capital decided to vote against communalism and prevent any division in secular votes. The meeting appealed to the Muslim community not to fall into the trap of greed or come under any pressure, and asked them to be alert about 'communal forces' putting up dummy candidates to split Muslim votes. It asked Muslim women to cast their votes abandoning all household chores and advised them to keep their voter I-cards in safe custody till the polls. The development is enough to indicate which way the contest is moving. The Muslims are likely to distance themselves from the BJP more after the party raked up the Ram Mandir issue in its manifesto. “He is the right man in the wrong party,” said Abdul Rasul of Bikram, adding Ram Kripal was not a bad option as a candidate but he shouldn't have fought on a BJP ticket.
.
.
Seems this seat is a very important battle for Lalu.

It has always been like that since the times of Allauddin Khilji.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 08 Apr 2014 22:36

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 08 Apr 2014 22:41

This was expected. UP, Bihar are the heart of north Indian Islamists. It remains to be seen if the BJP manages counter polarization.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 08 Apr 2014 22:42

niran bhai saab might have some anti-dhoti-shivering tablets

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 08 Apr 2014 22:46

Little worry some, but lets see

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 08 Apr 2014 23:00

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 08 Apr 2014 23:14

Search your details in Electoral Rolls.

http://electoralsearch.in

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Apr 2014 23:17

muraliravi, In one way Indian elections are like the US Presidential election system. One has to win enough MPs in key states to become the PM. Only the electoral college is not like in US where simple majority winner takes all in that state.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Apr 2014 23:26

arey karne dho unko tactical voting, we will see how far it goes, they have always done it (do you think they did not do it in the 90's)

Now they are playing a slightly different game. As the tweets said, they are going seat by seat. But in mind that is a stupid game, it will never percolate to that level. They can do whatever they want, As long as BJP hits the 35% vote share mark, they are in for a home run. The only chance these morons ever had of countering that was a dalit muslim combo and en masee BSP voting. Dalits are the most evenly spread community across UP. Every seat they have approx 15-20% population. A D+M combo was the only chance that could halt BJP. But even in there, BJP seems to have chipped off a vital portion by taking away the non jatav vote. Voting for Mulayam will not yield these morons any dividend, because it is like the 90's, except Yadavs no hindu will vote for SP, so there is no added hindu vote to build on the muslim base for SP. Just see how they have voted in the 90's, if that is not strategic, then what is?? BSP was a small party at that time and INC still had some dalit votes, that is why they backed the MY strategy to defeat BJP instead of a MD strategy as they knew D vote will split. But after Maya consolidated D vote, they saw that she would join hands with BJP, which put them off. It is the same reason why they still dont trust her.

The Jan, Feb and Mar-14 numbers are all CSDS. If you look at Mar-14 you can see BSP lapping up some incremental M vote, that may be because of some tactical voting in certain seats where they feel BSP is the best bet to beat BJP. Try morons, keep trying, BJP at 35-40% will kill all your tactics except for those 7-8 seats in western UP that look like mini pakistan

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Apr 2014 23:27

ramana wrote:muraliravi, In one way Indian elections are like the US Presidential election system. One has to win enough MPs in key states to become the PM. Only the electoral college is not like in US where simple majority winner takes all in that state.

Correct sir, unless BJP spreads its reach all over india and manage to do decently in all states without romping hope anywhere. But indian elections in most states give one sided verdicts.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 08 Apr 2014 23:35

Mrityunjoy Kumar Jha ‏@Mrityunjoykjha 1h

insider told me that AAP trying to go to any extent.. Becoz Delhi is their main battle field..

So the focus has shifted back to Delhi. They had the advantage after Delhi assembly elections. Farzi should never have expanded beyond Delhi this election season. He was in too much of a hurry or perhaps the unexpected victory got to his head.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 08 Apr 2014 23:35

Naah in Rohilkhand, Muslims are above 1/3rd vote, any real brilliant (as in accurate) tactical voting will hurt BJP.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Apr 2014 23:36

muraliravi wrote: Correct sir, unless BJP spreads its reach all over india and manage to do decently in all states without romping hope anywhere. But indian elections in most states give one sided verdicts.

In effect defacto US type winner takes all in that state. No wonder all those US poll companies are doing surveybaazi in India.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Apr 2014 23:39

"There should be a strong government in Delhi so that the world doesn't threaten us. We need to hold our heads high and match the world," Modi said in Delhi."

The time has come for all patriotic citizens of India to vote both well and wisely,so that a strong nationalist govt. emerges at the centre,which will not be bullied by the world's nuclear bullies and military interventionist hypocracies,posing as democracies.They are already doing their utmost to derail the BJP and Mr.Modi through their false propaganda campaigns in the media,both international and national (those media houses,"Judases", which have taken their 30 pieces of silver from the West) and through the quislings of the AAP led by the CIA stooges Kejriwal and Rajmohan Gandhi.This what they're now warning the world about!

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... ar-weapons
Indian election alarm as BJP raises prospect of nuclear weapons rethink
Hindu nationalist opposition party, which is tipped to win lower house majority, causes concern with manifesto

Jason Burke in New Delhi
theguardian.com, Monday 7 April 2014

Bharatiya Janata party leader Narendra Modi, right, and party president Rajnath Singh at the launch of the manifesto for the Indian elections. Photograph: Kevin Frayer/Getty Images

The Hindu nationalist opposition party tipped to win India's election has sparked concern with a manifesto which, though largely devoted to economic development, setss out uncompromising hardline positions on contentious issues and raises the prospect of a revision of the country's policy on use of its nuclear weapons.

The election, a six-week process which is expected to see more than 600 million people vote, started on Monday with millions in the country's remote north-east going to the polls

Surveys predict a big win for the Bharatiya Janata party (BJP) – whose prime ministerial candidate is the controversial Narendra Modi – though not an absolute majority in the 545-seat lower house of the national assembly.

The long-awaited BJP manifesto includes hundreds of policy initiatives including bullet trains, investment in job creation, water connections for every household, increased local defence production and funds to boost the practice of yoga.

But it was commitments to draft a "uniform civil code" – legislation that would withdraw the rights of India's 150 million Muslims to follow their religion-based law – and to "explore all possibilities" to build a Hindu temple at the bitterly contested site in the northern town of Ayodhya, which drew most attention internationally.

The BJP also says it would move to end the special autonomous status accorded to Jammu and Kashmir, the disputed Himalayan former princedom. The manifesto includes a controversial promise to work for the return of Hindus who left Kashmir when a separatist and then increasingly Islamist insurgency took hold in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

However, it is the prospect of a revision of India's nuclear doctrine, whose central principle is that New Delhi would not be first to use atomic weapons in a conflict, that has worried many in the region and beyond. Party sources involved in drafting the document told Reuters the "no first use" policy introduced would be reconsidered. The policy was introduced after India, then under a BJP government, conducted a series of nuclear tests in 1998. Pakistan, India's neighbour responded within weeks with nuclear tests of its own.

"For a long time there has been an assumption that India would not use nuclear weapons first. Given the existing tensions with Pakistan and the fact that those tensions are likely to rise as US troops leave Afghanistan [at the end of this year], this could well cause stress in Pakistan's security establishment which is really not something anyone [in Washington] desires," said Michael Kugelman, of the Woodrow Wilson International Center.

In an interview last month, Rajnath Singh, the BJP president, told the Guardian the party wanted cordial relations with "all countries in the world".

Though Indian elections are unpredictable, most analysts and all polls indicate a significant BJP win. Economic growth faltered three years ago and the Congress party, in power since 2004, has been hit by a series of graft scandals.

Along with its many pledges to improve the living standards of all Indians, the manifesto unequivocally sets out a nationalist agenda. "In a democracy, everyone is not only free, but also encouraged to voice his or her concerns … However, all this should happen within the framework of our constitution and with the spirit of 'India First'. We have to keep the nation at the forefront of our thoughts and actions. Any activity, which disrupts the integrity of the nation, cannot be in the interest of any segment of the society or any region of the country," it says.

One passage refers to the "power" which lies in " the people of India, in the inner sanctum sanctorum of Mother India" and explains that "what is needed is to ignite the spark and Mother India would rise in her full glory."

However, the manifesto also says the "BJP recognises the importance of diversity in Indian society, and the strength and vibrancy it adds to the nation. India constitutes of all its' people, irrespective of caste, creed, religion or sex."

Singh, the party's president, said the manifesto's release was not simply a formality but a "pledge".

The document gives a glimpse into internal tensions within the BJP, which is an offshoot of a broader Hindu nationalist movement which has its roots in the struggle against British colonial rule, and the party's relationship with the vast RSS (National Volunteer Force), an organisation of activists working on a conservative and religious agenda with 40 million members.

Seema Chishti, a journalist with the Indian Express newspaper, said that the inclusion of Ayodhya, Kashmir and then uniform civil code indicated that "the BJP is not in a position to jettison its Hindu identity or issues".

"These are the things they put on the back burner the last time they were in power … but in this manifesto, they have been reintroduced in a significant way," Chishti said.

Though the 50-plus page document acknowledges the "charismatic leadership of Narendra Modi", the promotion of the three-term chief minister of Gujarat on the national stage has been controversial within the BJP.

Modi came from the ranks of the RSS but has distanced himself from the organisation and has caused anger among traditionalist adherents of a vision of India as economically self-sufficient with its emphasis on attracting foreign investment from global firms. Analysts have said that the 63-year-old has sidelined older members of the BJP.

Prof Sumantra Bose of the London School of Economics downplayed any split and said that issues such as Ayodhya, the status of Jammu and Kashmir and the Indian civil code were at "the core of the beliefs of Hindu nationalist leaders of both the generations."

One question is the extent to which the nationalist views would define policy when in power.

"There's a religious right in the BJP so they want to acknowledge that without making it the centrepiece of the manifesto," said Ashok Malik, a political columnist. "I don't think the BJP is going to take it forward as a political movement."

One of the most polarising politicians in India for years, Modi is seen by critics as an extremist who, when chief minister in 2002, was accused of allowing or encouraging mobs to attack Muslims in towns across Gujarat after a lethal fire supposedly started by Muslims on a train full of Hindu pilgrims. Modi denied the allegations and investigators found no evidence of any direct involvement in violence.

He is also accused of an authoritarian style of government at odds with India's tradition of political compromise and consensus-building.

Supporters, including some of the most powerful industrialists in India, say Modi is an honest and decisive administrator who has introduced policies that have encouraged development in his state and could be reproduced elsewhere if he were prime minister. "There should be a strong government in Delhi so that the world doesn't threaten us. We need to hold our heads high and match the world," Modi said in Delhi."

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Apr 2014 23:43

fanne wrote:Naah in Rohilkhand, Muslims are above 1/3rd vote, any real brilliant (as in accurate) tactical voting will hurt BJP.

I have clearly mentioned that, the 7-8 seats in western UP (rohilkhand) will be the only place where they can hurt them. To name the seats: Saharanpur, Bijnor, Kairana, Rampur, Moradabad, Nagina, Muzzafarnagar and 1 more. Barring Muzzafarnagar and Kairana, BJP was anyway not in contest in any of these seats not just because of tactical muslims voting, but because of RLD that will split the Jat vote. If jats have moved completely to BJP, then muslims can kiss good bye to these seats as well except Rampur and Moradabad.

All other western UP seats Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Meerut, Bulandshahr, Mathura, Noida will come to BJP except maybe Baghpat.

So as i said, it is just these 7-8 seats where they can hit BJP hard.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 08 Apr 2014 23:45

Philip, You need to be on twitter. Its easy to register.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 08 Apr 2014 23:48

To throw some more stats here.

Muslims have to hitch on one of these 2 bandwagons to defeat BJP: Dalits (Jatavs in particular) or Yadavs. These are the only 2 groups that will not vote for BJP by and large. Even that theory has been under the radar for quite some time now. But lets assume that to be the case.

Even if you ignore that table, non jatav dalits are 15% of UP. Only in seats where M pop exceeds 20% do they stand a realistic chance of defeating BJP via voting for BSP. This route of voting through SP is over because this time SP does not have anything other than a dented Yadav vote unlike in the last 2 elections when they had other obc vote.

Now how may seats in UP have in excess of 20% M vote?? 22 seats to be exact in which all those seats of western UP that i described are already baked in. On top of that, 6 of these 22 seats have historically been very polarized cities where BJP wins cutting across caste lines. So why shudded sir??? Jai Shri Ram

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2014 00:06

The BSP votebank may not be firm, if 5forty3's suggestions are anything to go by - Mayawati is scoping out a deal where the BSP tacitly helps BJP in western UP in the LS elections in exchange for support to get back to power in the next VS elections. Explicitly wooing Yadavs and receiving LS support from BSP cadre would significantly dent the ability of the Muslims to tactically consolidate against the BJP on a seat-by-seat basis because they simply cannot make up the numbers. Which is exactly how it should be because this whole exercise has descended into a bare-knuckle fight with one small demographic attempting to impose a veto on the choice of the majority.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 00:15

Suraj wrote:The BSP votebank may not be firm, if 5forty3's suggestions are anything to go by - Mayawati is scoping out a deal where the BSP tacitly helps BJP in western UP in the LS elections in exchange for support to get back to power in the next VS elections. Explicitly wooing Yadavs and receiving LS support from BSP cadre would significantly dent the ability of the Muslims to tactically consolidate against the BJP on a seat-by-seat basis because they simply cannot make up the numbers. Which is exactly how it should be because this whole exercise has descended into a bare-knuckle fight with one small demographic attempting to impose a veto on the choice of the majority.

{edit}, I think Jatavs are by and large with the BSP (but muslims cannot ride on their shoulders barring a few seats). I really doubt this deal for support in LS in exchange for support in VS. Mayawati is a very shrewd politician. She knows very very well that after Modi becomes PM, if there is one state where he desperately wants to foist a BJP CM it is UP to ensure BJP's survival beyond 2019. Moreover she knows that BJP under Namo/Amit Shah/Kalyan Singh is not the BJP under RNS in UP. So if she has taken a deal like this, she would for sure know that BJP will backstab her later. So my guess she will not take such a deal. It is a different story that BJP does not need such a deal with BSP to win a good chunk in UP barring a few seats where she can help them

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2014 00:18

Thanks for your comments, muraliravi. How do you interpret 5forty3's comments on the matter at the booth level then ?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 00:25

Suraj wrote:Thanks for your comments, muraliravi. How do you interpret 5forty3's comments on the matter at the booth level then ?

He knows a lot more about what is happening on the ground. IMHO, there is only one way it can happen and that is Mayawati has lost control over BSP in western UP. BSP local leaders in western UP and being promised rewarding careers in BJP (MLA tickets for UP 2017 elections) if they help BJP on the few seats in western UP where BJP needs their help. This is also the only region where a decent chunk of dalits are more likely to vote as hindus instead of voting on caste lines due to the history of the area and the recent turbulence. That kind of makes the job easy for bsp cadre to convince their voters to cast their vote for BJP. So it maybe a local thing going on over which maya has no control. It is beyond my imagination if she has personally approved anything like this

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Apr 2014 00:25

Livemint ‏@livemint 59m

Modi factor, split in Jat vote give BJP the edge in Lok Sabha polls in Haryana http://mintne.ws/1iqIKtT

Unlike Malhotra, for others in her neighbourhood in Panipat and across the districts in her state Haryana, Modi is the first choice. The Modi wave, as many voters in Karnal and Ambala put it, appears to be gripping Haryana, which otherwise has been under the Congress rule for the last decade. Even the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is finding it difficult to overcome the groundswell of support that Modi is generating.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 09 Apr 2014 01:16

This muslim "anything but BJP" is to be expected. Muraliravi, combine your calculations with 5forty3 and what seat tally would you suggest ? 37 ?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 09 Apr 2014 01:32

ashish raval · Post by **ashish raval** » 09 Apr 2014 01:34

gandharva wrote:
SaraLax wrote: Minority Vote Polarization happening against Modi in Pataliputra LS seat , Patna - Bihar

Lalu's daughter Misa of RJD vs Ram Kripal Yadav of BJP

It has always been like that since the times of Allauddin Khilji.

Pseudo paki mentality of exterminating the tribe by hunger but not eat grass at play. Ask Greeks, Egyptians and incas.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 09 Apr 2014 01:36

Suraj garu,

Are you on twitter? If yes what is your id?

Regards

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 09 Apr 2014 02:14

If twitter is an indication the polarization against BJP among Muslims is complete.
Even those who rarely talk politics are in 'fear' of Modi now...

I think the most important factor in this election is going to be whether you can get your voter to the booth. I hope that BJP doesn't falter at the last step.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2014 02:17

Jatav vote is breaking from Maya (and only for LS, as various reports including 5forty3 are telling). So there is BJP vote here. But Secular minded people are anyway in large numbers in Western UP. You only need a small section of Hindus for SP/BSP/Con to win (unless their vote gets divided as well). What 5forty3 is telling is not some Maya/BJP understanding, just that Jatavs think that Maya has no dog in this fight so then why not vote BJP. If the assembly elections are held next day, almost 90% of these Jatav BJP voters will vote Maya.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 09 Apr 2014 02:25

Vamsee wrote:Suraj garu,

Are you on twitter? If yes what is your id?

Regards

Sorry Vamsee, I'm not.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 02:36

Sanjay wrote:This muslim "anything but BJP" is to be expected. Muraliravi, combine your calculations with 5forty3 and what seat tally would you suggest ? 37 ?

Sir, I shudder to predict seats, here is my estimate of the vote shares in UP based on voting % on election day

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 02:40

fanne wrote:Jatav vote is breaking from Maya (and only for LS, as various reports including 5forty3 are telling). So there is BJP vote here. But Secular minded people are anyway in large numbers in Western UP. You only need a small section of Hindus for SP/BSP/Con to win (unless their vote gets divided as well). What 5forty3 is telling is not some Maya/BJP understanding, just that Jatavs think that Maya has no dog in this fight so then why not vote BJP. If the assembly elections are held next day, almost 90% of these Jatav BJP voters will vote Maya.

Sir, I repeat again, please check UP demographics from a source that gives u seat by seat details. There are only 22 out of 80 seats where seculars in UP are even above 20%. Seculars need to be at least 30% in seat to help sp/bsp/con with a smattering of hindu vote and such seats are 12 in number. Those 12 include seats like Meerut, Bareily, Bahraich. You very well know how people vote in such seats, looks like we are overestimating seculars even more than they do to show off their strength.