Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 20:39

Its in Hindi and not Urdu as to be expected. And calls their group a manch.

Is this real or psy-ops?

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 09 Apr 2014 20:42

^^
why should admin remove the posts?

what special interests you have to ensure that it is not seen by people other than for whom it is meant? BRFites can judge whether this is fake or genuine, BTW looking at the content it is similar what is propagated.

muzzaffarnagar is not in Pakistan. it is prepared by a IM and non-M Indians have the right to know what goes behind the walls in Friday prayers.

its not useless crap. such rhetoric is used to gather rioting mobs. it works for community that is way down in percentage numbers.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 09 Apr 2014 20:43

ramana it is mixed.
i've seen similar stuff long ago.
in Bengal it contains a heavy mix of local Bengali with Urdu.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 09 Apr 2014 20:48

muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/subscription/

Guys, please subscribe, its just Rs. 500. If you want quality exit poll data, you should go for it.

Though this may not sound right, I will request subscribers not to post his future analysis anywhere on the web. Let people pay and read it. He needs to pay his field workers to collect data.

Done

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 09 Apr 2014 20:51

ramana wrote:Its in Hindi and not Urdu as to be expected. And calls their group a manch.

Is this real or psy-ops?

Me think a psy-op. You can find thousands of lunatics who will write this for 500 Rs. Common street level language is used.

why should admin remove the posts?

Well.....IMO it is not written by an Indian. It has stamp of Bakiness ........level that you find on unmentionable forums.

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 09 Apr 2014 20:55

RamaY wrote:
muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/subscription/

Guys, please subscribe, its just Rs. 500. If you want quality exit poll data, you should go for it.

Though this may not sound right, I will request subscribers not to post his future analysis anywhere on the web. Let people pay and read it. He needs to pay his field workers to collect data.
Done

~~I'm not able to pay.. I sign in, there is no link for payment.~~

Done.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 09 Apr 2014 20:55

rsingh wrote: >> why should admin remove the posts? <<
Well.....IMO it is not written by an Indian. It has stamp of Bakiness ........level that you find on unmentionable forums.

Could be. But the mix of Hindi and Urdu is strange. Bakis cannot compose intermixing the both. There is no apparent grammatical mistake or awkward sentence formation. Has to someone very familiar with local lingo.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 09 Apr 2014 21:08

Guys if you have to pay for 5forty3 do it now, that money can be used to hire and get more people to do exit voting. Doing it tomorrowor a week from now will not be that effective

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 09 Apr 2014 21:10

fanne wrote:Guys if you have to pay for 5forty3 do it now, that money can be used to hire and get more people to do exit voting. Doing it tomorrowor a week from now will not be that effective

Done. Every one please spare 500 bucks and spread message around

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 09 Apr 2014 21:11

Supratik wrote:Only 55% voting in Arunachal. No anti-incumbency???

It says 71% in AP
84% in Nagaland
64% in Meghalaya
78% in Manipur

kish · Post by **kish** » 09 Apr 2014 21:20

SaraLax wrote:
ramana wrote:svenkat, Can you decode that article from Chindu? Whats is the point? Nadars are trending for BJP?
I guess you are asking for BJP's chances in Kanyakumari. If so, IMHO - It appears that Kanyakumari is BJP's best bet for a LS seat this time in TN. Coimbatore might be second best.

As per recent local vernacular media (magazines & TV news channels) output - P.Radhakrishnan , current TN state BJP President, is the candidate who is favoured to win at Kanyakumari. He is a Hindu Nadar and Hindu Nadar votes will reach him in good % ... all depends on voter mobilization on election day. Projection for him by local TV news channel was that he is the MP choice of 32% of sampled people in the constituency. He seems to have a slender margin of between 3 - 5 % lead over his other competitors. All important parties with a good % of votes have put up their own candidates .... namely DMK, ADMK, INC (Vasanthkumar , i believe richest TN candidate), CPI(m), AAP (Udayakumar of Kudankulam Nuclear plant controversy). If Modi can canvass for him at his seat he will get a boost and also if he gets some % of Christian Nadar votes too then he is safe. But this place is quite close to state of Kerala and hence local church is known to name the candidate (in Sunday Mass prior to election day) as to whom the faithful should vote for (mostly DMK or INC). While DMDK did get some visibly good number of votes last time ... this time i am not sure how much of DMDK or MDMK support will move over to support the BJP candidate. Overall chances are the brightest since he last got elected as LS MP from here in 1999.

It will be a really tough fight for Pon.Radhakrishnan. This constituency has 48.7% christian population Wiki who ever the church endorses will win.

This has been the church's stronghold since 1980s. Sitting MP is a christian (Helen Davidson). since 1980, 8 out of 9 times a christian has won this constituency.

Udayakumar has approached southern diocese for endorsement, so are the other candidates.

Last time, Pon. Radhakrishnan lost to helen davidson by ~70,000 votes.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 09 Apr 2014 21:31

Typical Islam Khatre mein Hai (Islam is in danger) bullshit. Dreams of increasing population to majority and changing constitution to declare India an islamic state, annexing Hindu properties and capturing wealth and women of Hindus.

These swine should be roasted alive.

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 09 Apr 2014 21:39

muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/subscription/

Guys, please subscribe, its just Rs. 500. If you want quality exit poll data, you should go for it.

Though this may not sound right, I will request subscribers not to post his future analysis anywhere on the web. Let people pay and read it. He needs to pay his field workers to collect data.

Done

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 09 Apr 2014 21:53

^^^Done. $10 USD.

Note: This is cheaper than paying for the additional Indian television channels on satellite service like DISH or DirecTV.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 21:56

So how did PR win in 1999?

Was it the Kargil wave?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 09 Apr 2014 22:03

Suraj wrote:Can you explain why ? What polarized the electorate before the 2012 VS elections to generate a 60% turnout ? How did the turnout in that VS compare to the ones before ? Also, is there any prior data on Muslim turnout in LS elections ? I'm not criticizing, but am just curious; until Thurday it's hard to guess what the western UP turnout will be.

No clue sir, I cant put a finger and say why. I mean, maybe EC did a better job at enrolling, maybe SP mobilized its voters better, Maybe people hated BSP so much.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Apr 2014 22:09

This has Farzi hopping mad.

sanjay_kaul Sanjay Kaul 8h
It's all over the place. pic.twitter.com/LlhLKet86I

Closeup

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 09 Apr 2014 22:11

svenkat wrote: No connection between Narendrabhais first and second sentence.The enthusiasm in Kasargod has nothing to do with KLs affinity or otherwise for BJP.the northern part of kasargod is tulu speaking and they have a long standing demand to join KA.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kayyar_Kinhanna_Rai

Lots of konks in Kasargod. My FIL is from there. For some weird reason, it's in KL instead of KA.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 09 Apr 2014 22:45

muraliravi wrote:http://5forty3.in/subscription/

Guys, please subscribe, its just Rs. 500. If you want quality exit poll data, you should go for it.

Though this may not sound right, I will request subscribers not to post his future analysis anywhere on the web. Let people pay and read it. He needs to pay his field workers to collect data.

Done, Muraliravi ji. Out of respect for your work. Generally I do not subscribe online.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 09 Apr 2014 22:48

communal riot in kanpur when the route of a ram navami procession was changed due to bad road conditions and went through a caliphate area it seems.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 09 Apr 2014 22:54

आज की महाभारत:
जब दुर्योधन (कांग्रेस) को लगा की वो अपने दम पर अर्जुन (मोदी) को परास्त नहीं कर सकता तो उसने कर्ण (AAP) से दोस्ती कर ली और उसे अंग देश (दिल्ली) का राजा बना दिया!
इस अहसान के बदले कर्ण, दुर्योधन और उसके साथियों (शीला Government) के अधर्म (Corruption) की तरफ अपनी आँखें बंद कर लीं और इस अधर्म को छुपाने और खुद को दानवीर कहलाने के लिए अपनी हैसियत से ज़्यादा दान (Subsidy) दिया और दुर्योधन (कॉंग्रेस) को विजयी बनाने की पूरी कोशिश की.
इस धर्म युद्ध मे भीष्म और द्रोण (Media and Social Activists) ने भी इस गठजोड़ का साथ दिया! लेकिन जनार्दन (जनता जनार्दन) ने अर्जुन (मोदी) का साथ नहीं छोड़ा और ये तो सर्व विदित है की अंत में जीत उसी की होती है जिसके साथ जनार्दन (जनता) और कृष्ण (RSS) होते हैं!!

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 09 Apr 2014 22:59

kish wrote:
SaraLax wrote:
I guess you are asking for BJP's chances in Kanyakumari. If so, IMHO - It appears that Kanyakumari is BJP's best bet for a LS seat this time in TN. Coimbatore might be second best.

As per recent local vernacular media (magazines & TV news channels) output - P.Radhakrishnan , current TN state BJP President, is the candidate who is favoured to win at Kanyakumari. He is a Hindu Nadar and Hindu Nadar votes will reach him in good % ... all depends on voter mobilization on election day. Projection for him by local TV news channel was that he is the MP choice of 32% of sampled people in the constituency. He seems to have a slender margin of between 3 - 5 % lead over his other competitors. All important parties with a good % of votes have put up their own candidates .... namely DMK, ADMK, INC (Vasanthkumar , i believe richest TN candidate), CPI(m), AAP (Udayakumar of Kudankulam Nuclear plant controversy). If Modi can canvass for him at his seat he will get a boost and also if he gets some % of Christian Nadar votes too then he is safe. But this place is quite close to state of Kerala and hence local church is known to name the candidate (in Sunday Mass prior to election day) as to whom the faithful should vote for (mostly DMK or INC). While DMDK did get some visibly good number of votes last time ... this time i am not sure how much of DMDK or MDMK support will move over to support the BJP candidate. Overall chances are the brightest since he last got elected as LS MP from here in 1999.
It will be a really tough fight for Pon.Radhakrishnan. This constituency has 48.7% christian population Wiki who ever the church endorses will win.

This has been the church's stronghold since 1980s. Sitting MP is a christian (Helen Davidson). since 1980, 8 out of 9 times a christian has won this constituency.

Udayakumar has approached southern diocese for endorsement, so are the other candidates.

Last time, Pon. Radhakrishnan lost to helen davidson by ~70,000 votes.

All of what you say is true ....i do accept.

In LS 2009 elections - the BJP stood alone & came 2nd bagging 2.5 LAKH votes while UPA's Helen Davidson (DMK+INC+VCK combination) won the Kanyakumari LS seat with 3.2 LAKH votes. The 3rd front (ADMK + MDMK + PMK + CPI/CPM) came third with 80K votes while DMDK guy came 4th with 68K votes. DMK + INC vote combine with Church's blessing was quite a powerful entity in this traditionally INC strong seat (somewhat of a Kerala hangover in this tip-of-India LS seat). Also Voting % was relatively on lower side in LS 2009 in this seat with 65% voting.

This time crucially all parties are standing separate sans any coalition with each other but for the BJP (has the DMDK+MDMK+PMK combine ... but better to discount the vote aggregation of this combinations' vote chances for safety factor aspects). AAP is also in the line-up with a Church friendly Udayakumar. Surely INC & DMK & ADMK will seek Church's approval but not sure who will be favoured by the Church. So chances for splintering of Christian votes exists in this LS seat. PR has also been a dignified non-controversial BJP local leader here. Hence my opinion that BJP's PR has very good chances to win this time - compared to last time. Let us see - it is also dependent on how much voter mobilization can be done on polling day.

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 09 Apr 2014 23:18

vivek.rao wrote:
fanne wrote:Guys if you have to pay for 5forty3 do it now, that money can be used to hire and get more people to do exit voting. Doing it tomorrowor a week from now will not be that effective
Done. Every one please spare 500 bucks and spread message around

Done

disha · Post by **disha** » 09 Apr 2014 23:23

pankajs wrote:

Translation:

This is Country's election (India's) and not Delhi's
It is electing a Lion (NaMo) and not a Billi (Cat).

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 09 Apr 2014 23:58

is it not shershah vs shahzada?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 09 Apr 2014 23:58

for dilli saar

---------------------------------------->>

asraghunath Raghunath AS 4m
याद रखोगे के भूल जाओगे..? अबकी बार मोदी सरकार! ...4 pic.twitter.com/gu7HiatM3a

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Apr 2014 00:06

asraghunath Raghunath AS 10m
याद रखोगे के भूल जाओगे..? अबकी बार मोदी सरकार! ...3 pic.twitter.com/nSlG2pKhCa

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 10 Apr 2014 00:10

drgpradhan Dr. Gaurav Pradhan 16m
BEFORE U Vote Remember this #MyVote2Congress @ndtv @bdutt @ibnlive @abpnewstv @timesnow @incindia @thehindu @kerala pic.twitter.com/tM78pTtMfR

vipins · Post by **vipins** » 10 Apr 2014 00:16

vivek.rao wrote:
fanne wrote:Guys if you have to pay for 5forty3 do it now, that money can be used to hire and get more people to do exit voting. Doing it tomorrowor a week from now will not be that effective
Done. Every one please spare 500 bucks and spread message around

Done

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 10 Apr 2014 00:21

SaraLax wrote:
kish wrote: It will be a really tough fight for Pon.Radhakrishnan. This constituency has 48.7% christian population Wiki who ever the church endorses will win.

This has been the church's stronghold since 1980s. Sitting MP is a christian (Helen Davidson). since 1980, 8 out of 9 times a christian has won this constituency.

Udayakumar has approached southern diocese for endorsement, so are the other candidates.

Last time, Pon. Radhakrishnan lost to helen davidson by ~70,000 votes.
All of what you say is true ....i do accept.

In LS 2009 elections - the BJP stood alone & came 2nd bagging 2.5 LAKH votes while UPA's Helen Davidson (DMK+INC+VCK combination) won the Kanyakumari LS seat with 3.2 LAKH votes. The 3rd front (ADMK + MDMK + PMK + CPI/CPM) came third with 80K votes while DMDK guy came 4th with 68K votes. DMK + INC vote combine with Church's blessing was quite a powerful entity in this traditionally INC strong seat (somewhat of a Kerala hangover in this tip-of-India LS seat). Also Voting % was relatively on lower side in LS 2009 in this seat with 65% voting.

This time crucially all parties are standing separate sans any coalition with each other but for the BJP (has the DMDK+MDMK+PMK combine ... but better to discount the vote aggregation of this combinations' vote chances for safety factor aspects). AAP is also in the line-up with a Church friendly Udayakumar. Surely INC & DMK & ADMK will seek Church's approval but not sure who will be favoured by the Church. So chances for splintering of Christian votes exists in this LS seat. PR has also been a dignified non-controversial BJP local leader here. Hence my opinion that BJP's PR has very good chances to win this time - compared to last time. Let us see - it is also dependent on how much voter mobilization can be done on polling day.

Co-incidentally the Economic Times has today published a Press Trust of India article on Kanyakumari's 2014 LS election prospects and it is not indicating who will win.

Will 'Modi Wave' Swing Kanyakumari in Saffron's Favour?

- The candidates of AIADMK, DMK, CPI(M) and AAP are all Catholic Christians (Christian Nadars) (but Udayakumar of AAP was indicated as a 'Hindu Nadar' in this "The Hindu" article ... might well be a cryptic christian).
- BJP & INC candidates are Hindu Nadars

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 10 Apr 2014 00:23

Guys, just for the record, neither MuraliRavi nor I am connected to 5forty3.in. Having said that, they are one of the best group doing exit poll and will not cook the data unlike others. they were quite accurate with assebly elections in 2013. IBTL is another one that is to look out for (they are not asking money fyi).

kittoo · Post by **kittoo** » 10 Apr 2014 00:24

fanne wrote:Guys if you have to pay for 5forty3 do it now, that money can be used to hire and get more people to do exit voting. Doing it tomorrowor a week from now will not be that effective

Done.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 10 Apr 2014 01:04

I have also done for 5forty3.
thanks folks.

member_21074 · Post by **member_21074** » 10 Apr 2014 01:11

fanne wrote:Guys, just for the record, neither MuraliRavi nor I am connected to 5forty3.in. Having said that, they are one of the best group doing exit poll and will not cook the data unlike others. they were quite accurate with assebly elections in 2013. IBTL is another one that is to look out for (they are not asking money fyi).

I have done the payment but have received no confirmation from 5forty3 side, rather from the gateway side.
How did it go for u after paying online?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 10 Apr 2014 01:16

got email from wordpress(which is 5forty3.in) followed by paypal

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 10 Apr 2014 01:17

It is important we support 5forty3.in as if there are discrepancies in his survey and final results, it may point to EVM manipulation and fraud.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 10 Apr 2014 01:17

Thanks fanne ji and a big thanks to everyone who has contributed to 5forty3. It helps us a lot to get neutral ground reports in analyzing the election. God willing, everything will go well for the nationalists in this election, but groups like 5forty3 can keep feeding us with updates and those snippets can be used to push for higher voting in later phases in case, things are not doing as well we would like. That is not to say, people should vote only if needed, everyone should try their best to get there and vote.

One other reason I support 5forty3 is that I see a good opportunity in India for a Gallup/Rasmunsen type polling agency. As of today all polling is commissioned by big media groups with vested interests. Going forward, this can be a independent group that not only surveys elections (which they should, even after this election, there are dozens of elections in India every year), but also surveys public on important issues related to economy/security etc.. going forward. I really hope (that is a big hope) that such a agency can act as a pressure group on the government of the day. Anyway all that is tall talk as of now, for now they are doing their best to give us good coverage for this elections.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 10 Apr 2014 01:20

Translation of that Islamist pamphlet:

Heading: Islam Religion is in Danger, Muslims Unite.

Content: O believers! Muslims did a Jehad to drive away Britishers from India and thousands of Muslims died in the cause but Kafir Hindus betrayed us and gave just a handful of land in form of Pakistan. Not just that, they also snatched away the Kashmir Region which was rightfully ours and killed lakhs of Muslims. During Emergency, Sanjay Gandhi and His mother forcibly performed vasectomy and when opposed, they also killed thousands of Muslims. "Shaheed Chowk" in Muzaffarnagar is built in memory of those martyrs. O believers! Indian Army is killing innocent Muslims in Kashmir. Kafir Hindus razed Babari Masjid in 1992 which was the biggest attack on Islam by Hindu Kafirs. O Believers! BJP's Narendra Modi killed Thousands of Muslims. Even today, Muslims of Gujarat are living life of a slave. All this is being done because we are politically divided. O Muslims! If you still can not politically unite then Muslims will keep on suffering. O Believers! Remember when Allah's Jehadi Mohammad-Bin-Kasim attacked India in 712 AD. And after that constant attacks by God sent Jihadis enslaved India and forced them to accept Islam. Millions of Idle Worshipers were forced to Pray to Allah. Therefore O believers, keep on populating even if you have to sleep with empty stomachs. We will rule again on India in coming 20 years. Big Bungalows and Kothis belonging to Hindus will be ours and beautiful girls of Kafirs will be our slaves. We need to become politically united for all this come true. Now you have an opportunity. Vote for Muslims in your area to make them win. If you send maximum Muslims in Parliament then that day is not far when we will be in Majority inside the parliament and we will make any Muslim Prime Minister and President just by sheer numbers and amend the constitution to declare this country as an Islmic Nation. As a result, we will implement Sharia Law on the entire land. And By Allah, we will avenge each and every atrocity done to use by Kafir Hindus.

Footer:

Muslims Ekta Manch, Muzaffarnagar (UP)

Anindya · Post by **Anindya** » 10 Apr 2014 01:29

Jamwal - it will be nice to have a link to a picture of this pamphlet...

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 10 Apr 2014 01:31

^They have a pretty good interest in keeping Muslims young, wretched and poor. Then only the dreams of sexy Kuffar girls as left hand possessions, for the older the dream of big bungalows, land etc is quite a selling point. This is a narrative that will be difficult to remove from Islamic discourse.