Eastern Europe/Ukraine

[abhischekcc]

There's going to be some important impacts if Russia does actually send troops in to Eastern Ukraine when all of this dust settles.

- Whats left of Ukraine will quite possibly be on a NATO accession path, and there will be no Russian electorate to act as an anti-NATO lobby. This is certainly not what Moscow has ever wanted. Ukraine will be lost as a buffer.

- The Kremlin believes its mirror imaging Western use of 'Responsibility 2 Protect' rhetoric, and so its safe from any real blowback.

When the Soviets declared the 'Brezhnev Doctrine' and crushed the Prague Spring in 1968 after the Czechs dared to chose their own government the West did nothing but make feeble sounding statements. It turned into the beginning of the end of the Cold War. It split Marxists movement worldwide (the Soviets most effective secret weapon) alike nothing before. It convinced the Chinese Communist Party they had to make an opening to the Americans. It convinced the Romanians and North Koreans they needed to get further away from Moscow. The Brezhnev Doctrine dragged Moscow into Afghanistan which damaged even more of its relationships and escalated the global Cold War to a level it couldn't afford.

Putin's *only* friendly neighbors are Kazakhstan and Belarus - now they too must worry about the potential for Russian intervention with their sizeable Russian minorities should their relationships ever sour. They'll avoid antagonising him in the short term, but they will seek insurance policies.

NATO as an organisation was withering on the vine until recently - Europeans deployed to Afghanistan out of treaty obligation, but with no enthusiasm. Now everything is different.

The problem now will be that Europeans will expect a larger commitment than Obama is willing to make, particularly given the 'pivot to Asia' and the year-on-year defence budget cuts that have already started.

But even that might see some reversals. One interesting side effect is that NASA is now cutting space cooperation with Russia outside the ISS. This will almost certainly mean that the consistently underfunded Commercial Crew Program will now *have* to receive peak funding in order to give US astronauts a ride on the SpaceX Dragon or Dream-Chaser as an alternative to Soyuz. This is back to the situation of the 1970s with simultaneous cooperation and competition. Only appropriate since that is the exact era Putin is so nostalgic for. If the current climate continues the Americans could get the Europeans, the Japanese and the Canadians to pitch in as well. Good news for commercial space.

The only way Putin can avoid getting sucked into a competition he can not win is to leave Ukraine alone. It all depends on whether he's actually learned anything from the Soviet Cold War experience.

Looks like wishful thinking!

There are logical inconsistencies in the logic. Russia of today is not Brezhnev's USSR, that it has to defend a world wide ideology. No ideology, no loss.

Secondly, why, if the EU is really so gung ho with anti-Russian sentiment, that it expects the US to carry the cross? Are they really interested in taking on the bear? And if Germany is in a deep economic relationship with Russia, is there any hope for an anti-Russian stance in the EU ever?

Third, American, European, Japanese and Canadian space programs are the most expensive space programs in the world. There coming together will be the death toll of affordable space programs. The Americans, with infinite myopia, threw the Russians out of every program except the ISS. We know why. Russians provide the heavy lifting capabilities at extremely affordable rates to the ISS. The ISS will become economically unjustifiable without Russian participation. Since the Americans have already ended cooperation with Russia on everything else, Putin has nothing left to lose by ending cooperation on ISS as well. The westerners will be left between a rock and a hard place - they can't end the ISS midway because then they will have to justify the cost already sunk into it. And if they have to foot the transport bill themselves, then it means siphoning money from other projects. Putin may kill the other projects (the ones from which Russian cooperation was removed) by simply refusing cooperation on ISS.

Sure, funding can be increased, but try and justify that when the economy is hurting.

The problem with the west is they don't realize how quickly they are becoming redundant in the world, and they are not able to adjust.

The invasion on Iraq (the 2003 one, not the 1991 version) was the last high tide of western intervention in the world. The west has not been able to successfully invade any other country since then. Libya is too small to count, and too close to EU to be a test case.

If anything, other countries will try and not antagonize the bear after this.

[anmol]

Exclusive: U.S. Won’t Share Invasion Intel With Ukraine
by Eli Lake, thedailybeast.com
November 30th -0001

U.S. intelligence agencies now have detailed information that Russia has amassed the kind of forces needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the Obama administration hasn’t shared with Ukraine the imagery, intercepts, and analysis that pinpont the location of the Russian troops ready to seize more Ukrainian land, The Daily Beast has learned.

President Obama has repeatedly and publicly expressed solidarity with the Ukrainian people—and warned Russian leader Vladimir Putin that there will be consequences if he takes over any more Ukrainian territory. Yet Obama’s administration has so far been reluctant to hand over the kind of intelligence the Ukrainians could use to defend themselves. U.S. officials and members of Congress briefed on the crisis in Ukraine tell The Daily Beast that senior U.S. military officers have been instructed to refrain from briefing their Ukrainian counterparts in detail about what the United States knows about the Russians troops amassing on the border.

“I am not confident we are sharing any of that kind of information,” said Rep. Michael Turner, the Republican chairman of the House Armed Services Committee’s subcommittee that oversees NATO and U.S. tactical air and land forces. “It’s clear we are not giving them critical military advice about the Russian capability on their border and the best utilization of the Ukrainian military to counter that.”

Instead, the U.S. intelligence community’s detailed analysis of a potential Russian invasion has been shared only with the Congress, American policy makers, and members of the Obama administration. The analysis includes details such as the geographic location of specific Russian units and predictions for how those units would be used in combination for a potential invasion.

That’s the sort of information that would be invaluable for any military preparing for a possible incursion. But it would be particularly useful to the fledgling government in Ukraine that lacks the satellites, sensors and intercept technology to learn the details of the military force that looks like it is about to invade its territory. Ukraine's military is severely outmatched by Russia's, but detailed intelligence on the location and composition of Russia's invading force could advantage the Ukrainians in defending its eastern cities nonetheless.

And while any decision about an invasion is Putin’s alone, the signs are mounting that an invasion is near. Congressional staffers briefed on the matter say U.S. intelligence agencies have detected the supply lines needed for an invasion. Battlefield hospitals and mobile medical units have accompanied the infantrymen, tank columns and artillery units amassing at the border as well. When Russia announced military exercises near Ukraine in February, the U.S. intelligence community did not see such supply lines or medical units.

Stephen Blank, a senior fellow and expert in Russia at the American Foreign Policy Council and a former professor at the U.S. Army War College for 24 years, said the presence of the mobile military hospitals was particularly important. “Mobile military hospitals mean preparation for war, it means they are preparing to take casualties.”

A senior U.S. intelligence official confirmed to The Daily Beast that Ukraine was not receiving detailed U.S. intelligence analysis of Russian troop positions. This official said the practice of sharing intelligence with a country like Ukraine is dictated by long-standing intelligence sharing agreements. In the case of Ukraine, the United States historically does not share much out of concern that the information provided to Kiev would make its way back to Moscow. Until February, Ukraine’s military maintained close ties to Russia. The chances that its military is penetrated by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU are high. “We have to strike a balance between the information we share and the desire of foreign intelligence services to understand our sources and methods,” this official said.

Others disagreed. “This is not an issue of means and methods and techniques,” Turner said. “This is straight up, almost Google Earth-type analysis. Even giving Ukraine (intelligence) about how best to utilize its forces against Russia would be beneficial.”

Turner added that Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Olexander Motsyk, told him last week that Ukraine still needed massive assistance from the United States. To date, the only military assistance the U.S. has agreed to send Ukraine has been the delivery of 300,000 Meals Ready to Eat (MRE) for Ukrainian forces in the field.

Turner said Motsyk made it clear from his conversation that Ukraine also wanted the detailed intelligence on Russian troop positions. Motsyk declined to respond to an email requesting comment.

The current estimate is that Russia has amassed 80,000 troops on Ukraine’s border. Vice Admiral Frank Pandolfe, the director for strategic plans and policy for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that the Russian forces include fixed and rotor wing aircraft, tanks, artillery, light infantry and special operations forces. Pandolfe said the Russian military has the ability to deploy these different units in a “synchronized manner.”

Meanwhile, the Obama administration is now saying publicly what the intelligence community detected as early as February: Russian special operations forces or Spetsnaz units are responsible for the provocations and riots that have beset eastern Ukraine in recent days.

Speaking before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday, Secretary of State John Kerry said, “It is clear that Russian special forces and agents have been the catalyst behind the chaos of the last 24 hours.”

In light of the dire predictions for further Russian aggression against Ukraine, Turner is baffled that Obama has not done more. “Certainly if the Russians invade we would not want it to go well for them,” he said. “One way to ensure that is to give advice to Ukraine’s military on how to best respond to a Russian invasion. It’s unbelievable that we are not doing that right now.”

[Vayutuvan]

U.S. intelligence agencies now have detailed information that Russia has amassed the kind of forces needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the Obama administration hasn’t shared with Ukraine the imagery, intercepts, and analysis that pinpont the location of the Russian troops ready to seize more Ukrainian land, The Daily Beast has learned.

President Obama is playing the Ukranians. If they believe the FUD, they will start the fight and President can take the credit for standing up to the bear. If they don't and Pres. Putin really invades, then he can say I told you so - you should have acted (and the same to EU as well). That is clever tactical move but in the long term the already deep suspicion regarding US motives will be reinforced in the minds of the so called allies on the periphery of Russia.

[Vayutuvan]

>> Sure, funding can be increased, but try and justify that when the economy is hurting.

Very astute observation. What exactly the payback for US tax payers for funding SpaceX etc. Zilch, nada. As it is state schools are hurting for research funds. This would be Solindra redux. Grad students are the best bang for the buck - not SpaceX and makers of Teslas. "Short term short term short term" is the mantra of current admin (and previous admins). But then there is a long lead time for US to completely wind down.

[Philip]

300,000 "meals ready to eat" (MREs).US grunts describe them as "Meals Refused by Ethiopians"!

http://rt.com/news/kiev-forces-eastern-ukraine-512/
Ukraine crisis: Russia accused of destabilising its neighbour after three government buildings are seized across the country

William-the-vague (Hague) and Joker-ry,hyperventilate even more against Russia.
William Hague and John Kerry use strongest language yet and threaten tough sanctions, while EU plans for possible energy cut-off.

Heather Saul
Tuesday 08 April 2014

Britain and the United States have issued a tough ultimatum to Russia to keep its troops out of eastern Ukraine or face debilitating sanctions, unequivocally blaming Moscow for the fresh separatist unrest in three cities that has tipped Ukraine back into crisis.

The storming by pro-Russian demonstrators of state buildings in the eastern cities of Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kharkiv late on Sunday revived fears in Kiev and western capitals that Moscow may have designs on Ukrainian territory beyond Crimea, annexed last month. That sparked international outcry, a round of mild US and European Union sanctions, and warnings of tougher measures to come if Russia further destabilised its neighbour.

In eastern Ukraine, police moved in to try to clear the hundreds of demonstrators occupying buildings in the cities, despite ominous warnings from Moscow that authorities must not use any force against ethnic Russian protesters. Ukraine’s state security service claimed separatists rigged one building with explosives and were holding 60 people hostage.

Russian government officials have denied any link to the unrest of the past few days, but the US Secretary of State, John Kerry, accused the Kremlin of “an illegal and illegitimate effort to destabilise a sovereign state”.

“It is clear that Russian special forces and agents have been the catalyst behind the chaos of the last 24 hours,” Mr Kerry told a Senate panel, adding that this “could potentially be a contrived pretext for military intervention just as we saw in Crimea”. If any such steps did take place, he added, the US and its partners were “willing to put into effect tough new sanctions on those orchestrating this action and on key sectors of the Russian economy”.

In London, the Foreign Secretary, William Hague, also implied that Russia was skirting dangerously close to actions that could trigger the next round of EU sanctions. “There can be no justification for this action, which bears all the hallmarks of a Russian strategy to destabilise Ukraine,” he said.

“Russia should be clear that a deliberate and further escalation of the crisis will bring serious political and economic consequences... the UK will consider any armed Russian presence in eastern Ukraine as a further and deliberate escalation.”

EU heads of state last month tasked the bloc’s executive arm, the European Commission, with putting together a package of proposed sanctions that would target key Russian economic sectors including energy, mining, arms and financial services. A Commission official said they were working as quickly as they could to get the proposals ready.

While Mr Putin has insisted he has no intention of invading eastern Ukraine, he has made clear that he would use military force if ethnic Russians living in the country came under threat.

His Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, called his Ukrainian counterpart on Monday night to warn against the use of force in eastern Ukraine “to respond to legal demands (by protesters) to protect their language, culture and socio-economic rights”.

Despite those words, Ukrainian police cleared the occupied buildings in Kharkiv after a brief overnight operation in which 70 people were arrested. Protesters remained entrenched in Donetsk and Luhansk, however, with separatists in both cities now demanding a referendum on independence. This was reminiscent of events in Crimea in February, when the ousting of the pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, in Kiev proved the catalyst for Russia’s invasion of the Black Sea peninsula.

The situation in Luhansk, less than 20 miles from the Russian border, appeared to be deteriorating tonight with the Ukrainian security service, the SBU, claiming in a statement that “the criminals have mined the building... and are holding around 60 people, threatening them with weapons and explosives”. A representative for the protesters denied the claim.

Members of Parliament of the Svoboda party fight with Members of Parliament of the Communist party in the Ukrainian parliament on April 8, 2014, during the debates focused on a law toughening responsibility for separatism.

Russia has also hit back at critics, specifically in Nato, which has announced restrictions on Russian diplomats visiting its Brussels headquarters. A Foreign Ministry spokesman said such actions showed the alliance could not rise above “the thinking of the Cold War era”. The Kremlin has also been making tactical use of its command over Europe’s energy market, with an official from the state energy firm Gazprom noting that Ukraine had missed the deadline for paying back some of its $2.2bn (£1.31bn) debt to the company.

Nearly half of the Russian gas that ends up in Europe transits through Ukraine, and EU and Ukrainian officials met in Brussels today to fashion a plan B if Russia does decide to cut off supplies. While Gazprom officials have not said what action they will take over Ukraine’s non-payment of bills, Russia’s Deputy Energy Minister said that he forecast exports to Europe would drop this ye

Showdown inevitable and imminent in the east.
With the Kiev clique deciding to assert itself by force moving troops,armour,western mercenaries and right wing neo-Nazi thugs into Donetsk,etc.,a showdown is rapidly nearing.Any move by the Kiev clique using force will face resistance and any casualties almost certainly invite a Russian military response,as Russia has already warned the Kiev clique,led by Alexander "Trick-Enough",stool-pigeon of the West,not to use force in the east,or face the consequences.

Kiev orders ‘state protection’ of protester-held govt HQ in Donetsk
Published time: April 09, 2014
http://rt.com/news/kiev-forces-eastern-ukraine-512/

Ukraine’s self-imposed president Aleksandr Turchinov has ordered the protester-held local govt HQ in Donetsk to be taken under ‘state protection’ as armed personnel and armored vehicles have been reported moving into the eastern region of Ukraine.

According to a decree signed by Turchinov, the local administration building in Donetsk and surrounding territory is an “important government facility, which is a subject to state protection.”

The decree entered into force upon signature and Turchinov has already given Ukraine's state security service appropriate directions, Itar-Tass reports.

Ukraine’s acting interior minister Arsen Avakov stated earlier on Wednesday that a “special police task force” had already arrived in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov from western regions of Ukraine and was ready to take them under control within 48 – using force, if needed.

The buildings of power structures in the eastern cities of Donetsk and Lugansk remain under control of the protesters. While so far there have been no attempts to recapture the occupied buildings, activist continue building barricades preparing for a possible attack by forces shipped in from other regions of Ukraine.

Activists expect the military operation to take place overnight in Donetsk and Lugansk simultaneously. Local administration in Kharkov was already stormed on Tuesday by armed men without insignia and masked law enforcement officers, after the local police in Kharkov refused to fulfil orders from Kiev.

About a hundred fighters from the newly-formed Ukraine’s National Guard reportedly arrived in the airport of Donetsk, the deputy director of a local group called People’s Militia of Donbas, Sergey Tsyplakov, told Ria Novosti.

“In Donetsk airport about a hundred of people from the National Guard have been housed,” Tsyplakov said. “Around a hundred of Right Sector thugs are also in the city, as well as a hundred employees from a private US military company operating under contract with Kiev junta.”

“Totally around 300 professionals or well-trained and motivated fanatics,” Tsyplakov added. “This is a major force, but we are ready to fight.”

Earlier in the day, pro-federalization activists in Donetsk blocked two busses carrying unbadged armed men in camouflage near the military commissariat. According to Tsyplakov activists believe they were mercenaries but were unable to identify gunmen as they kept silent and refused to answer any questions.

In the meantime, Ukrainian personnel and armored vehicles were spotted moving closer to the city of Donetsk. In an amateur video posted on YouTube shows locals were trying to stop machinery from progressing further.
Activists were also posting photos of special trains reportedly carrying armored vehicles to Donetsk.

Protests against the new government in Kiev have been continuing in eastern Ukraine for weeks now. Avakov warned that the coup-imposed government is ready within the next 48 hours to use force in order to retake control of the local administrative buildings held by protesters.

[Johann]

There are logical inconsistencies in the logic. Russia of today is not Brezhnev's USSR, that it has to defend a world wide ideology. No ideology, no loss.

Czechoslovakia was not just the defence of ideology in the abstract. It was the defence of a sphere of interest, and system of government. The Czech communist party's internal reform threatened to take the country out of the Warsaw Pact. That in turn represented a dangerous wave that had to be crushed, not only because of the loss of the sphere of interest, but because those kind of ideas could go all the way home. They did eventually under Gorbachev

Moscow's invasion of Crimea, and possibly of the Don region is a rearguard action to preserve a) what it sees as its sphere of interest, and b) the political system Putin has built, what in English is called the 'power vertical,' a more refined version of the post-Soviet power system, which in turn is built on the bones of the old system. What can happen in Kiev can happen in Moscow, or at least that is what Putin fears.

So yes, this kind of thinking commits Putin to Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. He's been trying to build up the CSTO as the Russian equivalent of NATO, as well as the customs union. Most ex-Soviet states have resisted deepening it to anything like NATO or the EU precisely because they fear what Moscow would do with that power. They are all going to put real effort into beefing up their capabilities to deter intervention, even while smiling at Putin.

Secondly, why, if the EU is really so gung ho with anti-Russian sentiment, that it expects the US to carry the cross? Are they really interested in taking on the bear? And if Germany is in a deep economic relationship with Russia, is there any hope for an anti-Russian stance in the EU ever?

Because not everything in the EU or Europe is about money alone. Countries peacefully splitting up like Czechoslovakia, or perhaps even Scotland from England is acceptable. Countries enlarging themselves by acquiring territory by force in Europe brings back memories of eras that were meant to have ended once and for all. That is one of the fundamental reasons the EU was created in the first place. To create a community in Europe amongst whom war was impossible. If Russia takes more territory fundamental perceptions about Putin's Russia will change irrevocably.

As for why the US should do the heavy lifting? That's always been the deal since 1945. America spends more on defence, and gets a louder voice. Europe gets to spend more on social welfare, and accepts the cost that implies at the geopolitical level. That is why NATO never went away - it allowed European states to transfer a substantial proportion of the cost of defending Europe to the US.

So yes, Europeans are conscious about minimising costs, and maximising economic growth but they also have their own ideas about what constitutes threats to peace and security. If America gets too aggressive and out of tune when it comes to European defence as occasionally happens they have ways to reign them back.

Third, American, European, Japanese and Canadian space programs are the most expensive space programs in the world. There coming together will be the death toll of affordable space programs. The Americans, with infinite myopia, threw the Russians out of every program except the ISS. We know why. Russians provide the heavy lifting capabilities at extremely affordable rates to the ISS. The ISS will become economically unjustifiable without Russian participation. Since the Americans have already ended cooperation with Russia on everything else, Putin has nothing left to lose by ending cooperation on ISS as well. The westerners will be left between a rock and a hard place - they can't end the ISS midway because then they will have to justify the cost already sunk into it. And if they have to foot the transport bill themselves, then it means siphoning money from other projects. Putin may kill the other projects (the ones from which Russian cooperation was removed) by simply refusing cooperation on ISS.

Sure, funding can be increased, but try and justify that when the economy is hurting.

Abishek I don't know how closely you actually follow the various space programmes. There is nothing economical about what the Russians are charging for their Soyuz flights. NASA is paying Roskosmos $1.7billion in return fare for 30 astronauts between 2012-17. That is a seat fare of $48-70 million. That money does not get invested in US industry or capabilities.

With the new model, NASA doesn't pay to acquire the spacecraft and all the infrastructure that goes to produce and maintain them - thats paid for by the operators, who then deliver a service.

The current US commercial crew programme has three major contenders, and they will most likely to be able to easily deliver a far more capable service at half the cost - i.e. partially reuseable (in the case of Boeing and SpaceX, and mostly reuseable in the case of the SNC Dream Chaser), with a crew of 7, or return cargo capacity. If you're wondering how that is possible, then look at the costs that SpaceX is charging for LEO and GEO delivery - they are undercutting the Russian International Launch Services (which operates the Proton rocket) and even the Chinese. Similarly SpaceX offers a competitively priced cargo service to the ISS, with a new capability, cargo return. This is because of fresh, commercially (rather than national security or national prestige, like the Space Shuttle) oriented designs - for example the new Merlin engines are the most efficient liquid rocket engines ever built.

Even within NASA Congress has chosen to fully fund massive pork barrel projects like the James Webb Space Telescope at the expense of CCP. It pays for ULA instead of SpaceX. The CCP has been underfunded in part because a radical shake up of the existing contractor model was politically difficult. Until now it was actually politically easier to pay the Russians. Even when the Space Shuttle retired (which is when the Russians were hired), the Space Shuttle contractors picked up contracts for the new SLS and Orion Beyond Earth Orbit programmes, so no one lost out.

The current crisis changes the politics of space appropriations entirely in favour of the new space industry vs. entrenched players - for example SpaceX vs. United Launch Alliance in lofting DoD satellites, which is offering rates that are one half to two-thirds of the existing cost. Just the money saved on that would pay for the current underfunding of the crew programme. Just before the crisis Elon Musk raised the issue of the use of Russian engines by ULA, and of Soyuz by NASA. Post Crimea, powerful figures like Senator Dianne Fienstein are firing off letters to the Pentagon asking for an immediate review of DoD launch contracts.

There is a revolution in all things related to space coming thanks to the drop in launch costs for satellites, cargo and people, and its going to be American companies in the lead. The Ukraine crisis in the most unexpected way is starting to clear the logjam of the last couple of years in Space appropriations.

[UlanBatori]

presence of the mobile military hospitals was particularly important

THAT explains the intense interest of the entire US and Oiropean Military Intelligence Community and Image Analysts! They have retasked all the spy satellites to focus their high-res ultra-telephoto cameras on the Russian military preparations, esp on the shower stalls of the MASH units to see Maj. Margarithasha Hoolihanova.

No wonder the vaunted US spy sats weren't around to see MH370 go round the world.

[Shreeman]

.....

Without a compromise available on the east, could you comment on what a reasonable russian response would have been to

a) disruptions from the likes of motor sich et al,

b) disclosure and proliferation to all and sundry (turkey already in the news)

until someone crosses a border with a recognized uniform on, speculation on what might happen at a border is simply biased thinking on our part.

And if you find relevant -- what would the US do if sensitive military stuff started showing up openly in China in volumes and without reverse engineering? Well, probably cave in to china in a minute, but North Korea or Iran?

Why the rush to sanctions wheen that is the only overt stick available. And they will be ineffective and there is no consensus in europe. Didnt NASA jump the gun? Should the criticism of crimea not also contain a standard disclosure as to why kosovo does not apply? And what of propping up the Tatars when no more than half a dozen have even voiced their opinion. Are muslims not the go to card for starting internal strife anywhere?

Russia ( I am glad the language is at Putin and not regime in russia in the main stream media so far) has pretty legitimate interests in a stablish eastern ukraine. And while europe has admitted this often, the Lettermans of the world are already resorting to evil dictator riding horses without a shirt hysteria for the benefit of their senior audience.

Where is the balance in the US media? How does one even inform oneself given the Colin Powell reputation of the US, and by their own admission clear lack of balance in the RTs of the world.

How could any skeptic not find the events in kiev and the haste in scheduling them, not the first match in this bonfire?

Finally, why arent you (or similar) writing in the visible media as opposed to the elementary school graduates passing themselves as experts?

ps -- aggregators have gone to pot post Snowden, and there is some time crunch, so if I missed some sensible discourse, my fault.

ps -- I disagree on the inferences re human space flight or commercial space exploration in general as outlined. What is on the horizon is still uncertain, and science will suffer in the meantime. The russians will see their sanction related diffuculties counting to a number greater than 2B soon enough. Investing another 1B preparinnng for future launches when NASA may choose to downgrade ISS at anytime may not make sense for them comnercially, even leaving aside the nose-thumbing aspect. It is not all favorable to the US.

[Philip]

The Russian crew in the ISS plan to seize it for Mother Russia. The Russians are the only ones who can resupply the station.Putin hopes that it will be good way to counter future sanctions! This news is hot from the office of JoKer-ry!

Welcome to the future republic of Donetsk!....not quite "done yet" though It needs to sizzle some more in the pan!
Donetsk's pro-Russian activists prepare referendum for 'new republic'
Protesters declare Kiev government illegitimate and fire its officials appointed to east Ukraine region

Alec Luhn in Donetsk
The Guardian, Tuesday 8 April 2014 20.56 BST

Pro-Russian protesters in Donetsk
Protesters backing Russian separatism in east Ukraine sit near barricades outside Donetsk's occupied administration building. Photograph: Roman Pilipey/EPA

Irina Grinenko rushed through the barbed-wired barricades and into the occupied regional administration building in Donetsk, rolls of toilet paper in one hand and a bag of bandages in the other.

"If they attack us, I will bandage people," the pro-Russian protester said, adding that she expected an assault by non-local law enforcement personnel.

"We will be here until the end, until they beat us out or meet our demands … I want an autonomous region on good terms with Russia," she added.

Pro-Russian protesters built new barricades and dug in for a long occupation of the administration building on Tuesday, readying themselves for expected "provocations" by Ukrainian police or demonstrators sympathetic to the Euromaidan protests and to the new government in Kiev.

Meanwhile, a loosely organised temporary government inside the building began laying the groundwork for a referendum on the "sovereignty" of the newly declared Donetsk republic, which it plans to hold simultaneously with similar referendums in Lugansk and Kharkiv some time before 11 May.

At a session on Tuesday afternoon, the temporary body declared illegitimate the regime that had "violently usurped" the government in February, and announced it was firing all the officials it had appointed in Donetsk.

The statement, which was later read to protesters outside the building amid cries of approval, also demanded the Kiev regime removed all its forces from the Donetsk republic and returned political prisoners it said had been abducted.

The ill-defined but collegiate new leadership, which says the Kiev regime is dominated by radical nationalists and has ignored popular demands for a referendum in Donetsk, also unanimously approved – through a quick show of hands – heads of the administration building's defence and a new electoral commission.

"The situation in the region is critical," said Denis Pushilin, chairman of the temporary government, shortly after meeting a law enforcement official. "We want to avoid bloodshed."

Police had demanded that the protesters turn in weapons which they did not have, he said. Many of the young men in the building were carrying pipes and improvised clubs, but no knives or firearms could be seen in areas accessible to journalists.

Pushilin said 800 protesters had occupied the building overnight. Roman Romanenko, a former paratrooper and coal miner who was appointed to head the defence of the building, told the Guardian he had more than 1,000 men under his command.

Kiev has blamed Russia for organising separatist uprisings in eastern Ukraine, where protesters seized government buildings in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkiv over the weekend.

Speaking of the takeover of a building in Kharkiv, the interior minister, Arsen Avakov, blamed the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and the ousted Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovich, for financing the pro-Russian occupation.

Leaders in Donetsk denied they were in contact with the Russian government, and protesters said that no Russians had come to assist in the occupation.

But busloads of demonstrators from Russia reportedly had arrived in the city last month before clashes between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian protesters which had left one man dead and dozens of people wounded.

It remains unclear whether Donetsk would want greater autonomy within Ukraine or seek to join Russia.

The "people's deputy", Miroslav Rudenko, said the referendum was "to legitimise the declaration of the Donetsk republic" and would simply ask citizens if they "support the sovereignty of Donetsk". Rudenko was wearing a T-shirt reading "Free Pavel Gubarev", referring to the pro-Russian leader who declared himself governor of the region after separatists first seized the regional administration building on 3 March. He was later arrested by Ukrainian security services.

"In the future, I think regions in the south and east of Ukraine will announce their opposition to the Kiev regime and create their own federation," he said.

As the temporary government was meeting, chants of "Russia! Russia!" could be heard from the crowd outside, many of whom waved Russian flags. The word Russia had been painted on the side of the occupied building.

Protesters appeared to be preparing for a siege, with one speaker in front of the building declaring "there is no way back for us now". Masked men blocked off some floors with chairs and tables, while others went to the leadership on the top floor, one carrying a club, gas mask and box of chocolates. (Electricity has been cut off to the building, stopping the elevators.)

A few empty liquor bottles could be seen in the partially trashed building, after one woman at the temporary government session said 30 demonstrators were discovered drunk last night. Romanenko, however, said all alcohol had since been disposed of and declared that "vodka will not be drunk here".

Outside, lines formed among the hundreds gathered to pass ripped-up paving stones to fortify the barricades made of sandbags, tyres and barbed wire, which grew from one to three lines of defence by the end of the day.

Several dozen women responded to instructions shouted over a megaphone to form a line along the street in front of the building with the idea that pro-Kiev "provocateurs" would be less likely to use violence against them.

Artyom, an occupying protester who supported federalisation to allow Donetsk greater control over its affairs within Ukraine, said the situation could be solved through negotiations but that these "should be from a position of strength".

Alexander Stepantsov, standing outside, said: "We are standing here so the police don't attack us, so peaceful people will be here and there won't be any clashes."

He said he wanted Donetsk, the heart of the historical Donbas coalmining region, to gain more control over its budget under federalisation rather than send its earnings off to Kiev. But a patrolling policeman said they had no orders to interfere in the occupation.

"We're not planning to attack our own people no matter what," said one officer, who declined to provide his name.

Many protesters said they disagreed with the pro-European policies of the new Kiev government, which they claimed had harmed trade with Russia, Ukraine's leading export partner, which buys industrial goods produced largely in the east. Almost all noted a recent aborted attempt to cancel a federal law allowing regions to adopt other official languages alongside Ukrainian.

Grinenko said she wanted Donetsk to retain relations with Russia, which buys most of the machinery made by the Azovmash factory where her son and son-in-law work. Orders have dried up and 30% of workers have been fired as Ukraine prepares to finish signing an EU association agreement next month. "Russia is closer to my wallet and to my heart," she said.

[member_28502]

People tend to forget that even in politics state craft and leaders the gro scoping effect dictates the response

Khan Saab wanted to extend the the NATO right to the door step of Russia thinking that with colorful revolutions in disguise. The logical response is gyroscopic action of applying a momentum to undo the changes that west wanted to impose.

Now when PRC declared a Air a Defense zone why should west oppose again the gyroscopic reaction to undo the new change and preserve the status quo

So Russian response is inline with what was expected of it

So is West Response to PRC

So is Israel's response to Irans nuke ambition

[Philip]

Situ in the east worsening.

Standoff between gvt, protesters intensifies, 24 hours before Kiev ultimatum ends
Published time: April 09, 2014

With 24 hours until Kiev’s threatened deadline to use force against anti-government protesters occupying buildings in eastern Ukraine, reports emerge of tanks around the city of Donetsk. Several locals were allegedly injured trying to stop the convoy.

An eyewitness confirmed the information about military forces arriving in the city in an interview with RT.

“At about 2pm we received information that military hardware had arrived at our local train station. We went there and saw APCs, military vehicles and troops. The whole town gathered nearby. The soldiers tried to start moving, and the people tried to stop the vehicles,” Lyudmila said.

She also noted the harsh response from the military when the locals attempted to stop them.

“The soldiers twisted the arms of pensioners, there were two men standing there and [the soldiers] drove over their feet [in tanks]. I was pulled back by local coalminers while I tried to stop the vehicles. They didn’t even look at who was in front of them. The men started shouting for them to stop, saying there were girls and women in front of them, but they didn’t care.”

According to a decree signed by coup-imposed leader Aleksandr Turchinov, the local administration building in Donetsk and surrounding territory is an “important government facility, which is a subject to state protection.”

The decree entered into force upon signature and Turchinov has already given Ukraine's state security service appropriate directions, Itar-Tass reports.

Ukraine’s acting interior minister Arsen Avakov stated earlier on Wednesday that a “special police task force” had already arrived in Donetsk, Lugansk and Kharkov from western regions of Ukraine and was ready to take them under control within 48 – using force, if needed.

The buildings of power structures in the eastern cities of Donetsk and Lugansk remain under control of the protesters. While so far there have been no attempts to recapture the occupied buildings, activists continue building barricades preparing for a possible attack by forces shipped in from other regions of Ukraine.

People are burning bonfires to stay warm in front of the barricades and singing songs to keep up their spirits, with Russian and regional flags waiving in the background. Many women and elderly people are among those on nightwatch in the center of city.

“We will be on duty here all night, because the assault could begin at any moment,” one of the activists told Ria Novosti. Thousands more people are ready to stand up against attackers at the first call of those keeping watch around the perimeter. Several times over the last few days activists assembled to train their response to emergency situations.

Activists expect the military operation to take place overnight in Donetsk and Lugansk simultaneously. Local administration in Kharkov was already stormed on Tuesday by armed men without insignia and masked law enforcement officers, after the local police in Kharkov refused to fulfil orders from Kiev.

About a hundred fighters from the newly-formed Ukraine’s National Guard reportedly arrived in the airport of Donetsk, the deputy director of a local group called People’s Militia of Donbas, Sergey Tsyplakov, told Ria Novosti.

“In Donetsk airport about a hundred of people from the National Guard have been housed,” Tsyplakov said. “Around a hundred of Right Sector thugs are also in the city, as well as a hundred employees from a private US military company operating under contract with Kiev junta.”

“Totally around 300 professionals or well-trained and motivated fanatics,” Tsyplakov added. “This is a major force, but we are ready to fight.”

Earlier in the day, pro-federalization activists in Donetsk blocked two busses carrying unbadged armed men in camouflage near the military commissariat. According to Tsyplakov activists believe they were mercenaries but were unable to identify gunmen as they kept silent and refused to answer any questions.

In the meantime, Ukrainian personnel and armored vehicles were spotted moving closer to the city of Donetsk. Amateur videos posted on YouTube show that locals were trying to stop machinery from progressing further.

Protests against the new government in Kiev have been continuing in eastern Ukraine for weeks now. On Monday, popular assemblies in Donetsk and Kharkov, where local administration headquarters were captured by protesters, declared independence from Ukraine and announced the creation of the independent Donetsk People’s Republic and Kharkov People’s Republic

PS:US sending in a second warship ,the "Donald Duck" to the Black Sea for potential target practice.

Second US Navy destroyer heads to Black Sea
Published time: April 09, 2014

Another US military ship is set to be deployed in the Black Sea amid the Ukrainian crisis. The US Navy destroyer Donald Cook will join the USS Truxtun, whose stay in waters bordering Russia was extended to ‘conduct drills’ with Romania and Bulgaria.

“We’ll also send another ship to the Black Sea within a week,” Derek Chollet, the US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security Affairs told the House Armed Services Committee, as he said the Department of Defense sanctioned to prolong USS Truxtun’s stay in the Black Sea “to conduct exercises with Romanian and Bulgarian naval forces,” after it left the region on March 21.

Chollet highlighted the main pillars of the Department of Defense response to the crisis in Ukraine and how they fit within the overall policy of US response towards Russia, saying that Moscow's move to accept Crimea's choice to join Russia “challenges our vision of a Europe whole, free and at peace.”

The Pentagon maintains senior-level defense dialogue with Ukrainian officials since the outbreak of the crisis, Chollet said.

“We have led efforts at NATO to offer Ukraine greater access to NATO exercises, invited Ukraine to participate in the development of military capabilities and provided capacity-building programs to the Ukrainian military,” he said.

On Monday the Pentagon spokesman Col. Steven Warren also stated that a second US ship will soon arrive to the Black Sea. No details have been provided, but DoD official told AFP that USS Donald Cook, a guided missile destroyer, has been deployed.

On Tuesday, headlines in Bulgaria circulated reports emerging from the Bulgarian Defense ministry, that a missile cruiser USS Donald Cook is soon to arrive to the Black Sea to join the war games.

Donald Cook is capable of firing SM-3 missiles, which allows the ship to function as part of the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System. It is deployed in Spain as part of the US missile shield program in Europe. The vessel is expected to dock into a number of ports along Romanian and Bulgarian coast, and bring some additional 175 US marines to the Romanian coast.

“Of course, the battleship is not going to enter Russian territorial waters, but it carries ABM defense systems, and all Ukrainian and Western media will fuss about the Donald Cook destroyer demonstrating to Russia the US military presence in the Black Sea,” an unspecified source in Russia's Defense Ministry told RIA news agency.

The US Navy destroyer "USS Truxtun" enters the Black Sea port of Varna in Bulgaria, on March 13, 2014. (AFP Photo / Anton Stoyanov)

“The presence of this ship in the Black Sea is only needed to show that they have not abandoned their intention to deploy sea-based ABM defense systems," Russian MP Mikhail Nenashev told RIA.

Another Russian MP, Ernest Valeev, told RIA that the USS Donald Cook cannot change the balance of forces in the region, adding that “the US attempts to whip up tensions in the region does not help resolving the crisis in Ukraine in any way.”

“Of course, the battleship is not going to enter Russian territorial waters, but it carries ABM defense systems, and all Ukrainian and Western media will fuss about the Donald Cook destroyer demonstrating to Russia the US military presence in the Black Sea,” an unspecified source in Russia's Defense ministry told RIA news agency.

“The presence of this ship in the Black Sea is only needed to show that they have not abandoned their intention to deploy sea-based ABM defense systems. This is all about public and psychological impact. In Russia everybody regards this as an attempt to play on our nerves," Russian MP Mikhail Nenashev told RIA.

Another Russian MP, Ernest Valeev, told RIA that the USS Donald Cook cannot change the balance of forces in the region, adding that “the US attempts to whip up tensions in the region does not help resolving the crisis in Ukraine in any way.”

Last week, the Pentagon announced that the Special Purpose Marine Air-Ground Task Force Crisis Response force in Spain will be reinforced with 175 marines.

“We’re increasing the number from 500 to 675,” Warren said, claiming that the move had been planned last year.

While the additional marines will officially be part of the Spain-based force, Warren said they are to be based in Romania where they will join nearly 300 marines already in the country.

Warren insisted that the purpose of additional deployment of another ship is done “primarily to reassure our allies and partners in the region that we’re committed to the region,” he said. “We’re still planning the details of our operations in the Black Sea but we expect port calls and exercises with other Black Sea nations.”

This is the fourth US warship to visit the Black Sea since February, a trend Moscow heavily criticized in the past.

Last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Washington as violated the Montreux Convention which regulates the number ships that can enter the Black Sea.

“There exists the Montreux Convention, which gives extremely clear criteria limiting the deployment of warships not belonging to the Black Sea governments in regard to tonnage and length of stay,” Lavrov said.

“We have noticed that US warships have extended their deployment beyond the set terms a couple of times lately, and at times they did not always comply with the regulations that are set within the Montreux Convention.”

[UlanBatori]

already stormed on Tuesday by armed men without insignia and masked law enforcement officers

Interesting.

[KLNMurthy]

U.S. intelligence agencies now have detailed information that Russia has amassed the kind of forces needed for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. But the Obama administration hasn’t shared with Ukraine the imagery, intercepts, and analysis that pinpont the location of the Russian troops ready to seize more Ukrainian land, The Daily Beast has learned.

President Obama is playing the Ukranians. If they believe the FUD, they will start the fight and President can take the credit for standing up to the bear. If they don't and Pres. Putin really invades, then he can say I told you so - you should have acted (and the same to EU as well). That is clever tactical move but in the long term the already deep suspicion regarding US motives will be reinforced in the minds of the so called allies on the periphery of Russia.

It would be madness to share such sensitive information with the unruly mob that calls itself the government in Ukraine. I hope the US has some commonsense left.

[Philip]

Why Ca-moron is shy of grappling with Putin and instead resorting to "jaw-jaw" instead of "war-war".His party are the beneficiaries of large amounts of moolah from Russian oligarchs and businessmen!

UK Mag Private Eye has details in this link:
http://www.private-eye.co.uk/sections.p ... issue=1363

Xcpts:

Dave’s donors and the Moscow connection
Russian sanctions, Issue 1363

NO WONDER David Cameron has been slow to follow President Obama’s call for economic sanctions “imposing a cost on Russia” over Ukraine: not only does he have to worry about the City’s enthusiasm for Russian money, but Putin-friendly businessmen are among his party’s biggest donors.

Ian Taylor, boss of giant oil-trading firm Vitol, gave the Tories £134,000 last year, a sum which buys him private meetings with the prime minister. His donations since 2006 total more than £600,000.

Last year Vitol went into partnership with trading firm Glencore to lend $10bn to fund expansion at the Russian state-owned energy firm Rosneft (run by Putin’s close ally Igor Sechin), to be repaid with oil deliveries. Vitol is partially headquartered in the EU (in Rotterdam and Geneva) so any genuine sanctions could disrupt its business.

Personal business
Vitol’s Russian interests go beyond Rosneft. Last November, Russia’s government-owned gas firm Gazprom announced that it was working with Vitol to develop underground gas storage and gas-fired power stations in Europe. While the UK government discusses reducing reliance on Russian gas because of the Ukraine crisis, Taylor’s Vitol is going into business with Gazprom to increase it.

Vitol says Taylor’s donations are his personal business, but Taylor personally announced both the Rosneft and Gazprom deals, and was among those at Gazprom’s London offices for its annual champagne reception last month. Meanwhile Vitol boosted its Tory links last month by employing former energy minister Charles Hendry MP as a £60,000-a-year consultant.

Another Tory donor, Moscow-born billionaire Alexander Knaster, has given £400,000 to the party since 2010. Knaster runs London finance firm Pamplona Capital Management, which specialises in helping rich Russians invest in the west – hardly a trade to welcome sanctions.

So much for the great "sanctions" from Britain against the Kremlin!

[Theo_Fidel]

Johaan,

The USA/NASA lacks a Kerosene-Oxygen engine (Kerosene-Oxygen is the future of most primary stage engines) and is at least 5 years away from being able to make its own. It’s the primary stage engine that is the problem. I don’t know about others but the Space-X does indeed make its own Kerosene –Oxygen engine, but it is not fully proven yet with only 7 successful launches. I doubt Space-X could even begin to replace Russian supplies. Almost all other players, including the USA military mind you, depend on the Russian Kerosene-Oxygen engine supply.

No, for the next 5 years at least Russian engines will be needed.
---------------

BTW I can’t see any stability returning to Ukraine unless it works out a deal with Russia. All the East EU countries worked out some form of informal deal with Russia before joining NATO. Ukraine would be best served by not listening too much to the west and quietly working out an arrangement with Russia.

[Austin]

President Vladimir Putin's letter to leaders of European countries. Full text

[Philip]

The Kiev clique are pushing their pawns too far forward on the Ukranian chessboard. Donetsk is closer to Russia in distance and spirit than Kiev and venturing out a "square too far",will bring about disaster for the Maidan mafia when trapped in a pincer between Putin's knights and bishops .

Military assaults against pro-Russian occupiers rumoured in eastern Ukraine
Buildings in Donetsk and Luhansk remain occupied despite an offer of amnesty for those who leave peacefully.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... ne-russian

Rumours of imminent military assaults on the government buildings seized by pro-Russian protestors kept tensions simmering in eastern Ukraine on Thursday, despite an offer of amnesty for those who leave the buildings peacefully.

After pro-Russian protesters demanding referenda on greater autonomy from Kiev stormed government buildings in the eastern regional capitals of Donetsk, Kharkiv and Luhansk over the weekend, rumours of a military response by the Ukrainian authorities have run rampant. While negotiations have been held in recent days, reports on Thursday suggested government forces were poised for a possible attack. A masked guard told those entering the occupied Donetsk building on Thursday afternoon: "You've been warned – you may not come out!"

Although police managed to quickly evict protestors from the Kharkiv administration building and a security service building in Donetsk, the Donetsk administration building and the security service headquarters in Luhansk remain in protesters' hands. But interior minister Arsen Avakov said on Wednesday morning that "a solution to this crisis will be found within 48 hours", noting that an "anti-terrorist operation" was ready to spring into action at any moment. Avakov's suggested deadline will run out on Friday morning.

A Donetsk news publication tweeted a photo on Thursday of a long line of transport trucks and artillery it said was a Ukrainian military deployment on the outskirts of the city. Television news reports later said locals armed with clubs had blocked an artillery brigade moving toward Donetsk and forced it to turn around.

The situation was also fraught in Luhansk, where combat veterans calling themselves the Army of the Southeast have kept a tight hold on the security service building and reportedly seized a cache of machine guns. Protesters outside the building continued to stockpile Molotov cocktails and laid down spike strips to puncture tyres on nearby roads, Ukrainian news agency UNIAN reported. On Thursday morning, police cleared 10 vehicles that had blocked off a military base in Luhansk late the night before, according to local media.

MP Andriy Senchenko, the acting deputy head of the presidential administration, said security council secretary Andriy Parubiy and security service head Valentyn Nalivaichenko were located in Luhansk and would decide on further actions there. This news would appear to bring old enemies face to face once again: Parubiy came to prominence as the head of the self-defence forces at the Euromaidan demonstrations in Kiev, while members of the Luhansk occupation told the Guardian on Wednesday that they had fought protestors in Kiev as officers of the now-disbanded elite Berkut riot police.

Ongoing negotiations have yet to produce results. Acting president Oleskandr Turchynov said on Thursday he had offered several compromises during a telephone conversation with the protesters holding the building in Luhansk, including possibly expanding the powers of local governing bodies. He added that he was ready to offer similar compromises to Donetsk protestors, who declared a "people's republic" in the region on Monday.

Donetsk leaders told journalists on Thursday negotiations had made no progress since meetings with local authorities earlier this week, which included the participation of local coalmining baron Rinat Akhmetov and the governor recently appointed by Kiev, billionaire Serhiy Taruta.

Protesters in the two coal-mining and metalworking regions seek a referendum on sovereignty, which they say would not necessarily mean becoming a part of Russia but would allow closer economic ties with Ukraine's traditional export partner. But they have also called on Russia to help them hold such a referendum. The Donetsk "people's republic" announced on Thursday it had formed a committee on international relations that would open a dialogue with Russia's Customs Union, a body Vladimir Putin has promoted as an alternative to the European Union.

In a play to defuse the situation, Turchynov also offered to issue a decree to amnesty those who laid down their weapons and left the occupied buildings voluntarily. But Senchenko later added a caveat, saying that "people who have committed grievous crimes" would not be amnestied.

Inside the occupied Donetsk administration building, the offer of amnesty was met with derision.

"We don't recognise this regime, how can we recognise their laws?" Denis Pushilin, head of the republic's self-declared temporary government, told journalists. He accused the regime of holding double standards, arguing that it had not yet disarmed nationalist militias who supported the ouster of former president Viktor Yanukovich.

A Cossack from the nearby city of Mariupol guarding the entrance downstairs called the amnesty offer "funny" and said protestors would "stand until the end".

"Amnesty is given only when a person committed a crime and has been sentenced. What am I guilty of? This nonexistent regime wants to judge me?" said the Cossack, who would identify himself only as "Mortal," a nickname he said he received fighting in the Russian army during the first Chechen war.

The unrest in Donetsk and Luhansk could threaten the 25 May presidential elections that Kiev authorities have said are to fully legitimise the new government. The protesters refuse to recognise the Kiev government or the planned elections, which don't include a pro-Russian candidate among the frontrunners, and promise to hold a referendum on the sovereignty of Donetsk and Luhansk by 11 May.

Billionaire MP Sergei Tigipko, who previously held high government positions and has recently curried favour with the pro-Russian protestors in the east, said in Odessa that "presidential elections might not happen" depending on "how the situation in southeast Ukraine develops". Pro-Kiev activists later pelted the former banking tycoon with eggs, calling him "Putin's whore".

But pro-European presidential candidate Petro Poroshenko, known as the "chocolate king," who currently leads in the polls, said on Thursday that any delay of the elections would be "treason" and would not happen no matter the circumstances.

A survey published on Thursday by the Donetsk-based Institute of Social Research and Political Analysis found mixed opinions on the region's future: 18.6% of Donetsk residents oppose changes to Ukraine's government structure, 31.6% support greater regional control over the economy and taxation, and 15.5% support the federalisation of the country. Almost 27% supported the unification of either Donetsk or all Ukraine with Russia.

[member_28352]

Compromise solution for all. Present day Ukraine, east of the Dnieper, should be merged with Russia. Western Ukraine should be split up and partitioned amongst Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania. Since Poland is getting its old territory back it should give up the German lands of old Prussia such as Danzig (Gdansk) etc. Time for another European Reorganization Commission aka1815.

[ramana]

This Ukraine diversion has torpedoed the pivot to Asia. Something for the WH to ponder.

[Anand K]

Czechoslovakia was not just the defence of ideology in the abstract. It was the defence of a sphere of interest, and system of government. The Czech communist party's internal reform threatened to take the country out of the Warsaw Pact. That in turn represented a dangerous wave that had to be crushed, not only because of the loss of the sphere of interest, but because those kind of ideas could go all the way home. They did eventually under Gorbachev

The Ukraine-Prague Spring parallel ain't correct IMO. The fundamental reason for the immediate crisis is the split which is innate to Ukraine - the demographics and a Soviet-era gerrymandering. It is not the fear of some husk NATO force in Ukraine NOR some EU free-trade agreement that made Russia react like this, is it? I mean, is NATO going to station a BCT, a missile group and an air-wing in the Pripyat or something? And what trinklets could the EU offer that Russia could not ultimately overtake in the final calculus? I feel the reasons for the current and the wider issue are more subtle - perhaps some groups of the West needs to stop the westwards march of Russia powered by her growing political, economic and energy resources muscle, especially in the light of the weakened economies of West Europe. And who better than the oldest foe of the Slavic Rus which festered in the belly of the beast for so long..... and so close to the heartland also? The Ukrainians will resist the Russian blindly or even agree to be a cat's paw for someone else even if friendship gains him much simply due to old wounds and the tyranny of minor differences.

BTW, Germany (and France) didn't have much of a problem with growing Russian political clout as long as the Russian army is 1000 miles away right? Maybe they feel they can work the Russian rise to mutual advantage as they are in a more comfortable economic position?

Jm2c

[Multatuli]

Moscow laying landmines in Ukraine: Kiev

http://news.yahoo.com/moscow-laying-lan ... 25495.html

The delegation accused Russian troops of creating minefields "at the entry points between the continental part of Ukraine and Crimean peninsula," which was annexed by Moscow last month.

[Philip]

How the US/NATO lie with their "evidence" of Russian troop movements,just as it did with Saddam's WMDs!

http://rt.com/news/nato-satellite-images-drills-712/
NATO’s Russian troop build-up satellite images ‘show 2013 drills’
Published time: April 10, 2014

he satellite images released by NATO that allegedly show a current build-up of Russian troops near Ukrainian border were taken in August 2013 amid military drills, a source in the General Staff of the Russian Army has said.

NATO’s top military commander in Europe, General Philip Breedlove, on Wednesday claimed that there is evidence of what he says are 40,000 Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, tweeting a link to satellite images.

The images, some of them colored and some black and white, appear to show multiple Russian tanks, helicopters, fighter jets and a “special forces brigade” with locations and dates added to them. The dates marked range from March 22 to March 27, 2014. Another image not available on the original webpage but used by some Western media has “April 2, 2014” stamped on it.

Upon looking at the photos, a senior official at the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces has confirmed to RIA Novosti the troops shown are indeed Russian ones and that they were photographed in the south of Russia.

There is one problem, though: the images were taken some eight months before the stated date, the source said.

“These shots, which were distributed by NATO, show Russian Armed Forces units of the Southern Military District, which in the summer of last year were taking part in various drills, including near the Ukrainian border,” the General Staff official told RIA Novosti.

Large military drills held in the south of Russia last year included Combat Commonwealth 2013 – a joint air defense exercise of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Back then, Ukrainian troops participated in the international drills.

NATO on Thursday continued ramping up allegations of possible “Russian invasion” into Ukraine, with NATO General Secretary Anders Fogh Rasmussen claiming that 40,000 Russian troops are still amassed on the Ukrainian border “not training but ready for combat.”

Rasmussen’s “message to Russia” was then “to stop blaming others for your own actions, to stop massing your troops, to stop escalating this crisis and start engaging in a genuine dialogue.”

Meanwhile, General Breedlove on Wednesday said that US troops may soon be deployed to Europe to “reassure” the NATO allies – a notion, which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov called a flagrant breach of the bloc’s international obligations.

The Ukrainian coup-imposed government has also stepped up its rhetoric on Russia’s military presence, even claiming there is “military activity on behalf of the Russian Federation… on the territory of Ukraine” in an invitation to the Netherlands via OSCE network.

Russian Foreign Ministry’s spokesman Aleksandr Lukashevich on Thursday responded to the allegations by stressing that “on the territory of Ukraine, there is no military activity conducted by Russia.”

“This has been confirmed by the group of inspectors from Denmark, Germany, Poland, Austria and Sweden, who were in Ukraine from March 20 to April 2 and visited Kharkov, Donetsk, Mariupol, Nikolaev and Odessa regions,” Lukashevich stated.

Suggesting the territory mentioned in the diplomatic note might have been that of the Crimean Republic, the spokesman said the related activity there has to do with transferring of the ships and military hardware to Ukraine, as well as with the “inventorying of the military installations.” As soon as this process is finished, the international inspectors are welcome to the territory of the peninsula – provided they send a request to Moscow, not to Kiev, he stressed.

[Austin]

Foreign Ministry concerned over US ‘hunt’ for Russian citizens in foreign countries

The Russian Foreign Ministry has issued an official warning to all citizens who travel abroad, saying they might be detained and extradited to the US for a biased trial on inflated charges.

“Without any reasons the US administration is refusing to recognize the reunification between Russia and Crimea that fully meets the international legal standards and the UN charter. It tries to make a routine practice out of hunting for Russian citizens in third countries with subsequent extradition and conviction in the USA, usually over dubious charges,” reads the statement posted on the Ministry’s web-site on Friday.

Russian diplomats say that US justice is biased against Russians and processes usually result in lengthy prison sentences.

Considering these circumstances the ministry again strongly advised all Russians who suspect they could have any conflict with US justice to refrain from travelling abroad, especially to countries that have mutual extradition agreements with the United States.

[Johann]

Shreeman, Theo,

Re. Ukraine.

There's no question that Russia can play spoiler. Even if Russia does not take a bigger chomp out of Ukraine, it has the means and the will to cause severe economic and political disruption for at least a few years.

So yes, a cooperative solution is the best bet.

But you can't have a cooperative solution if a major player has a zero-sum view of the situation. In Putin's mind Ukraine can't be part of the EU *and* have a close relationship with Moscow.

This is fundamentally wrong, and until he's willing to reconsider the point, he's going to do his best to destroy Ukraine.

At least as far as the EU is concerned, sanctions are to get Putin's attention that dismembering Ukraine has consequences - but their overall goal is a negotiated settlement with a new status quo for Ukraine.

But the larger problem with Putin's approach is that he has thought of this in purely state-centric and thus geopolitical terms - a battle between states, or groups of states, totally overlooking what critically important segments of the Ukrainian population collectively see as their interest.

Ukraine's educated class for the most part very much want the benefits of EU membership, and they're willing to to struggle for that. Putin doesn't just need to talk to the West, he needs to talk to them as well. But he isn't used to thinking of people as independent actors - in his mind they can be nothing more than pawns for others. Hence the contempt. Well this is the fundamental point that he and all the other ex-aparatchiks keep getting wrong again and again. The Kremlin could buy off the Ukrainian political class as easily as he could buy off the Russian political class, but that doesn't mean buying out educated opinion. In Russia those voices can be silenced, but the KGB in Ukraine was much more effectively dismantled, and because they didnt have the misfortune of inheriting the Caucasus, they didn't have the temptation to resurrect it to deal with a terrorist threat. But the result of disgust has been the overthrow of much of the political class as a whole, with not much to replace it.

As for why there isn't more sensible commentary in the media, I don't think they want it. Its less interesting and doesn't help viewership figures as much, which is what matters in an era when news is a commodity rather than a public service. I ignore the commentary for the most part, unless the commentator is particularly well connected to decision-makers. Its simply too irritating.

The fundamental reason for the immediate crisis is the split which is innate to Ukraine - the demographics and a Soviet-era gerrymandering.

Anand, Ukraine hasn't seen this scale of ethno-linguistic struggle and violence in almost a century. What has precipitated it is the struggle over Ukraine's future with Europe. Moscow was not willing to see Ukraine as part of the EU, and it used every lever at its disposal to prevent this for years. One of those levers was encouraging the ethnic Russian population to fear the loss of Moscow's influence in Kiev, and this is something that started after 2004 and has escalated exponentially in the last few years. Given how many of Ukraine's politicians (of both ethnicities) Moscow had bought and paid for it really wasn't that difficult.


Re. ISS and space access.

Shreeman, the Obama administration at the start of this year extended NASA's commitment to the ISS to 2024. It will quite likely be extended further. Two reasons - first, they need the ISS as an R&D platform for the deep space human flight plans (i.e. Mars capable by the 2030s), especially the critical area of space health/medicine. Second the American portion of the ISS is designated a US National Laboratory on the lines of Sandia. Its only in the last couple of years that they've started getting valuable scientific and commercial research done up there. So anyway, it makes sense for NASA to fund the development of a range of commercial LEO taxi services for post 2017 rather than shell out another $2-3b for the 7 years after that.

Theo, the Delta IV does not use Russian engines, and ULA says it has enough engines in stock for Atlas V launches to last 2.5 years. SpaceX is likely to be certified for 'EELV class' launches for the DoD within the next year - the process has already started.

[Austin]

The Zero-Sum game was played by the West when in November they gave an ultimatum to Ukraine to join EU or Russian lead Custom Union , when they choose not to the Maidan revolt was engineered.

EU refused to participate in tripartite Economic Negotiation between Ukraine , West and Russia.

The fact is the Engineering heartland of Ukraine trades with Russia i.e North and South but the West which is agricultural belt trades with EU.

Most of Ukraine Defence and Aerospace industry is subsidised by Russia.

If Ukraine choose to join EU which it may then Customer Union would put tarrif barriers on Ukraine to prevent its own market getting flooded by EU goods and that would make export of Ukraine goods to CU nations expensive.

Its a dead situation for Ukraine either ways unless they can negotiate 3 way trade deal......not to mention the cheap gas that Russian subsidises to Ukraine will no longer exist making Ukraine goods further uncompetitive.

[Johann]

Austin,

a) Please go back and check the timeline, and the terms of the agreements.

b) Deals and changes to deals this big require public consensus.

c) There's plenty of ways for Russia to deal with the potential problem of 'cheap EU imports' that dont involve invading and/or annexing half of Ukraine or threatening to do so.

The basic terms of the Ukraine-EU Association agreement were negotiated back in 2012, but there were disputes over whether the agreed terms of political reform would begin. In September 2013 Yanukovych asked parliament to adopt laws so that Ukraine would meet the EU criteria and be able to sign the Association Agreement on 29 November 2013. They did so that month, clearing the way for the agreement to be signed.

On the 9th of November Putin had a (initially) secret meeting with Yanukovych where Russia offered to buy Ukraine's gas debt on the condition it tears up the association agreement.

If Ukraine refused, it was warned that it would face gas price rises, supply problems, and all trade over the land border would be subject to extra inspection and harassment. In short Yanukovych would be screwed in the 2015 elections. So he naturally took Putin's offer.

The customs union treaty gave Moscow a veto over all other association agreements, and its clear that Ukraine would never be allowed to join the EU.

The problem is that there has for years been public consensus in Ukraine about getting on to the EU accession pathway. A majority of Ukrainians want the freedom to study, work, live and visit in the EU. The more ambitious want be able to go anywhere in the world and travel with all the benefits of an EU passport holder. It is the EU, not Russia that has structural requirements for improving the transparency of government, and laws against the arbitrary arrest and prosecution of political opponents and the press. Yanukovych simply chose to impose the new deal, and the result was protests by people who would forever be denied the chance to see fundamental changes to both their personal lives and to Ukrainian public life.

If you have any Ukrainian friends you would have seen the immense frustration over this. This wasn't some sudden new thing - people had been waiting for this for years, and now it was going to be taken away from them for good in a matter of days, without their assent. Yanukovych's decision to use force on the protests simply escalated the matter to the point that no one was in control. It transformed from a confrontation between the state and civil society to a battle between regime thugs and anti regime thugs, which actually benefits the Kremlin far more than it does Ukraine or the EU.

[vijaykarthik]

@Johann -- isn't it also a fact that Yanukovych wasn't using a lot of force and hence Russia didn't appreciate it enough. Russia assumed that had he used enough force, things could have been got under control (while he instead dithered and took the legs off the pedal and hence was forced to flee)?

There is a lot of separate literature that is dedicated to the fact that it was the US / west sponsored guys who actually killed the protesters and the police were mute spectators [or indeed sometimes also motivated by the police]

[UlanBatori]

Johann:
As I see it, your argument is that joining EU is not the same as being part of NATO. However, that does not quite work. EU is essentially one nation: one big parliament, one immense bureaucracy, free cross-border movement, free cross-border employment, one currency, generally uniform laws. Hence, joining EU is much MORE than being in NATO. Ukraine as EU member would be part of EU defense projects, and hence will have EU military units stationed in Ukraine (why not? there is free cross-border movement!) Hence, the net result is NATO on Russia's borders.

This is the problem with the "western" consumption of western viewpoints, with no room to consider other viewpoints. "EU is not the same as NATO" might SEEM reasonable to someone who says that in America or Britain, but most certainly is no comfort or reassurance to those who must plan to defend against NATO military attack. And to someone who stands outside and looks at this claim, sorry, but it appears dangerous, and it appears dangerous that such an argument would be expounded by the govts controlling NATO.

[svenkat]

Even assuming Russia to be the incarnation of evil,is it not a fact according to wki that EU openly declared in Feb 2013 that Ukraine cannot be member of both customs union and EU fully knowing that Russia was subsidising gas and there were strong multiple linkages between Ukraine and russia.
2)Is US/West stranger to arm twisting behind the scenes.Are they innocent babes?
3)Is it not a fact that the Ukraine parliament decided to postpone ratification?

what was the justification to throw out an elected man.Why was EU insisting that the ratification had to be done immediately citing reasons like Ukraine Elections(2015) and change of EU commission.Are such momentous decisions taken by armtwisting and presssure?Why couldnot the West waited for new elections?Those of us in India know about US committment to freedom/democracy(Pakistan,Balochistan,Baltistan,Bangladesh in 1971,Saudi Arabia).Why that urgency to throw out Yakunovitch?

[vijaykarthik]

And for all those who sort of doubt ulanbatori's thoughts, I would recommend the peerless George friedmans article:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russia-e ... t=readmore

A snip:
"There are those in the West who dismiss Russia's fears as archaic. No one wishes to invade Russia, and no one can invade Russia. Such views appear sophisticated but are in fact simplistic. Intent means relatively little in terms of assessing threats. They can change very fast. So too can capabilities. The American performance in World War I and the German performance in the 1930s show how quickly threats and capabilities shift. In 1932, Germany was a shambles economically and militarily. By 1938, it was the dominant economic and military power on the European Peninsula. In 1941, it was at the gates of Moscow. In 1916, U.S. President Woodrow Wilson ran a sincere anti-war campaign in a country with hardly any army. In 1917, he deployed more than a million American soldiers to Europe.

Russia's viewpoint is appropriately pessimistic. If Russia loses Belarus or Ukraine, it loses its strategic depth, which accounts for much of its ability to defend the Russian heartland. If the intention of the West is not hostile, then why is it so eager to see the regime in Ukraine transformed? It may be a profound love of liberal democracy, but from Moscow's perspective, Russia must assume more sinister motives.

Read more: Russia Examines Its Options for Responding to Ukraine | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
"

[Austin]

Johann , couple of quick points.

1 ) Ukraine is not a homogenous society , not most of Ukraine wants to join EU AA or is enthusiastic about it. There is West of Ukraine which is the Agricultural area and there is North and South of Ukraine which is Industrial heartland.

North and South are more tightly integrated with Russia that is one of the key reason why during Maidan Rally the North and South were relatively quite.

So the whole notion that the entire Ukraine wants to join EU AA is false notion at best.

2 ) Ukraine is being offered EU AA agreement and NOT joining EU both are NOT the same ....it may take even decade for Ukraine to join as full EU member if ever

3 ) Yanukovych backed out at the last moment because EU was not prepared to subsidise Ukraine while Russia offered 15 Billion Dollar Deal in gas subsidy and financial aid.

The terms and condition of EU AA was to get IMF reforms done which was really hard because it involved significant rise in Gas Price and Pension Reforms something not acceptable to Yanukovych and even now you will see as IMF reforms are implemented things will tighten up.

Russia did not put any condition like IMF reforms .....and Yanukovych knew that Customer Union and CIS will introduce tarrif barriers and that is the ONLY way to avoid cheap flooding of EU goods into these region , Just this week Medvedev said the same. Its LOUD and CLEAR to any one in Ukraine wanting to Join EU AA.

Most certainly People in EAST an NORTH will revolt when their factory starts closing , EU has little interest in saving them .....and the EU introduced standards are incompatiable with Custom Union or CIS standards.

Infact EU has little interest in supporting a basket case like Ukraine ,it just wants to poke Russia for Geopolitical Reasons and not that it is interested in Ukraine meeting EU standards etc

4 ) Russia Invaded Crimea because EU went back on their own word they made Yanukovych sign the deal with Maidan which he did not wanted to sign but was persuaded by Putin to do but EU let the Maidan take over and Yanukovch had to run away to save his own life.

So EU Nation Cheated on an Elected President and Supported the Coup

Russian was well supported in Crimea by its people and so was the referendum ..... if it works for Kosovo it works for Crimea.

5 ) Last but not the least EU AA and Custom Union agreement are incompatiable on many grounds expert from both sides have met many time but they found it was incompatiable and EU was not ready for Ukraine join both EU AA and CU or find a middle ground .....its well documented if you google

[Austin]

Ukraine Miners Don Camouflage as East Revolt Mimics West

[Austin]

The guy kept USSR passport and refused Ukraine one for 23 years.

[Virupaksha]

Johann,

I am sick and tired of the neo-WMD thesis which come out of the US. I havent seen people more brainwashed than the US. The brainwashed US sheep has only one view that of the establishment. 5 editorials in NYT and washpo are sufficient to move these sheep from jumping from one side of the pole to the other side.

These sheep cry about democracy one day and then the next day, when a democratically elected government is thrown out in a sniper led coup, these american sheep because of those editorials, suddenly democracy, people's rights and liberties become less important.

1) Are you saying that crimeans do not want to join russia?
2) Are you saying that the present coup clique has support in eastern russia?
3) Are you saying that the coup clique has ANY democratic legitimacy except rule of the might?

So, a democratically elected govt was thrown out in a violent coup. Now the common ukranian people do not want anything to do with this coup govt. Is there anything wrong with that?

A simple question: If the occupy wallstreet overthrew obama in a coup, would you recognise those people as legitimate?

if you dont, why should a common ukranian accept a coup govt?

If he doesnt accept, what do you propose that ukranian should do?

[Philip]

Ukraine was perceived as being the Achilles heel of Russia by the masterminds of the US/EU establishment. A pro-Russian leader,but unpopular who could be overthrown using the time-tested colour revolution street-protest methods which had already worked in the Ukraine before.Why the indecent haste though?

Payback time for Putin for Syria. Putin's tough stand on Syria,where it had been double-crossed in Libya (intervention to protect civilians only-no regime change),watched how the CIA overthrew Mubarak in Egypt,and the "colours" of the so-called Arab Spring turn to blood,decided that it all stopped with Syria. The combined forces of the US,EU,Turkey,the Saudis and the Gulf potentates ,were all taken on by Putin (with some diplomatic assistance from China, and Assad getting men and material from Iran),and soundly defeated at the diplomatic level in the UN,and on the battlefield too! The US in particular was exposed as being impotent,disgraced for letting down its Islamic bum-chums,and Obama as potent in steering global affairs from the captain's bridge,as much a eunuch in the sultan's palace in Topkapi!

There was enormous gnashing and grinding of teeth,weeping and wailing in the souks and renting of robes in the palaces of the powerful in the desert sands of Arabia."Uncle Sam" in the house of white,had proved to be an "Uncle Tom" in disguise! "No Mas" ,were the fatal words uttered by Roberto Duran in his rematch against Sugar Ray Leonard."No Mas" was the motto of O'Bomber,aka O'Bumbler,as he quite the Syrian conflict,not even potent enough to fire a blank at Assad! JoKer-ry,his Sancho Panza's potency and manhood was also revealed to be "unbelievably small",in his own words!

Stung by the epithets and dung hurled against him by the camel drivers of the desert,Uncle Tom and his bum-chums of NATO and the EU hatched a plot to restore face and severely wounded pride. They would strike at Putin when he least expected it,during the Sochi Olympics.The first act was to bitch the Olympics every way possible in the western media,forcing Putin to see that it was an unqualified success.Hoping his attention would be diverted,the plot to oust Yanukovych was put into motion,using the time-tested street protest route,but this time spiced up with yanqui mercenaries,EU politicos who openly sided with the Maidan protestors,and deceiving Yanukovych by singing an agreement with him just hours before orchestrating his overthrow! The trick this time to enrage the population was the use of snipers who sniped at and killed both protestors and govt. forces. The use of snipers was accidentally revealed when EU politicos were caught discussing the same in a private conversation.

The puppets were ready at hand.A Baptist preacher as PM,the "wicked white witch",Julia Tymoshenko released from prison (who wanted to "nuke" Russians!),and a chosen clique from the badlands of Kiev,well supported by rapacious oligarchs in cahoots with the EU. Victory seemed at hand,Putin on the ropes and the champagne corks were popping in Brussels,the capitals of the EU and in Washington! But these champagne charlies completely forgot that vodka was a far more potent drink and that Putin and his "bears" had not taken their eye off the ball. The moment the Chicken Kiev clique passed within hours anti-Russian legislation affecting the population of large parts of the country,especially the Crimea,he mounted a brilliant politico-military counterattack worthy of Capablanca or any of the great Russian chess geniuses,a veritable "molniya" (blitz),that saw the people of the Crimea seize power,vote to join Russia,which was swiftly and majestically celebrated in historic grandeur in the singing ceremony in the Yekaterininsky hall of the Kremlin. There Putin delivered an impassioned and historic speech vowing to defend the rights of the Russian speaking peoples all over Europe,sending a shaft of acute pain up the backsides of the masterminds of the Ukranian fiasco.

The Western conspirators were stunned.They ranted and raved but Putin had not only "shafted" them ,but had delivered some stinging slaps to the face as well! Red faced and bleeding from their battle wounds ,unable to understand what hit them,a full-scale retreat was ordered in typical tradition of western armies who can be seen retreating with their tails firmly tucked between their legs from Afghanistan,,Iraq and the other hotspots in the Middle East."Unbelievably small" sanctions were imposed upon a few Russian individuals,in typical JoKer-ry style. NATO was awakened from its stupor and slumber to rattle its rusty sabre,only to hear the hoots of derisive laughter and jeers emanating from Moscow,Sevastopol,Donestk,Kharkiv,the Donbass and the capitals of the non-Western world!

Two massive defeats in quick succession.Unforgiveable! But all that Uncle Tom and his bum-chums could do was to vent their spleen at Putin by obnoxious wind breaking in his direction,still forgetting that the wind was blowing towards them! The wind from the Ukranian east is a chill wind,where the pro-Russian entities have seized the edifices of power ,ironically through street protests similar to those of the Maidan.They threaten to dismember the country in half using the same successful method that the Crimeans used and leave the rump of Ukraine bankrupt and impotent and now with the hike in price of gas, plus threats of cutting off gas supplies for the unpaid bills in their billions,leaving them totally powerless (pun intended). Putin has farted back in the direction of the EU and NATO threatening cutting off gas supplies to them if bankrupt Ukraine welshes on the payments,which neccessitated an $18B loan from the IMF,given in return for massive austerity measures that will surely bring down the regime of the chickens of Kiev before Christmas,when they can all be slaughtered in the Maidan for the seasonal feast!

What of the end game? The Kiev clique have retreated,backpedalling on referendums in the east and the German hausfrau,Merkel by name ,who keeps the EU's house in order,says that she and he EU are taking Putin’s letter on gas transit ‘seriously’ .

His letter:

On Thursday, Putin wrote a letter to the leaders of 18 European countries, major consumers of Russian gas such as Germany, France, Italy, Greece, Turkey, Bulgaria, Moldova, Poland and Romania, warning that Ukraine’s debt crisis reached a “critical” level and could threaten transit to Europe.
He told Russia’s European partners that Gazprom would be forced to ask Ukraine for advance payments.

“In other words, we’ll be supplying exactly the volume of gas that Ukraine pays for a month in advance,” he wrote.

It is indeed a chill wind that is blowing in from the east towards Kiev and the EU,which has even reached the Oval office,where the chill in the bones adds to the discomfort and pain of Uncle Tom,having been shafted in his nether end by "Put-it-in",not once but twice!

[KrishnaK]

A simple question: If the occupy wallstreet overthrew obama in a coup, would you recognise those people as legitimate?

A government that is seen as having some legitimacy by it's people is not very easily overthrown in a coup. In fact it is next to impossible. Precisely why there has been no government overthrown in India, in spite of the venality of our political class. Even somebody like IG was contested by rank and file in the country and booted out in subsequent elections because her actions were seen as going against the wishes of the people. If she had continued to hold onto power without elections, she might well have been overthrown. I don't quite buy the story that the west can just willy nilly get revolutions going against popularly elected governments through inducements. This isn't to say they aren't capable of making hay.

[KrishnaK]

There was enormous gnashing and grinding of teeth,weeping and wailing in the souks and renting of robes in the palaces of the powerful in the desert sands of Arabia."Uncle Sam" in the house of white,had proved to be an "Uncle Tom" in disguise! "No Mas" ,were the fatal words uttered by Roberto Duran in his rematch against Sugar Ray Leonard."No Mas" was the motto of O'Bomber,aka O'Bumbler,as he quite the Syrian conflict,not even potent enough to fire a blank at Assad! JoKer-ry,his Sancho Panza's potency and manhood was also revealed to be "unbelievably small",in his own words!
.....
But these champagne charlies completely forgot that vodka was a far more potent drink and that Putin and his "bears" had not taken their eye off the ball. The moment the Chicken Kiev clique passed within hours anti-Russian legislation affecting the population of large parts of the country,especially the Crimea,he mounted a brilliant politico-military counterattack worthy of Capablanca or any of the great Russian chess geniuses,a veritable "molniya" (blitz),that saw the people of the Crimea seize power,vote to join Russia,which was swiftly and majestically celebrated in historic grandeur in the singing ceremony in the Yekaterininsky hall of the Kremlin.

You could close your eyes and see grampa phillip recounting tales of the braves he had fought with in his youth around a campfire to breathless lil children.

[Philip]

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/a ... mentpage=3
Ukraine fails to break stalemate with pro-Russian protesters in east
Arseniy Yatsenyuk promises devolution to local government in hope of staving off demands for their independence from Kiev

PS:KrishnaK:
But Grampa Phil is an Injun,and he fought with the braves against the palefaces,undefeated in the "ring"!

[johneeG]

A government that is seen as having some legitimacy by it's people is not very easily overthrown in a coup. In fact it is next to impossible. Precisely why there has been no government overthrown in India, in spite of the venality of our political class. Even somebody like IG was contested by rank and file in the country and booted out in subsequent elections because her actions were seen as going against the wishes of the people. If she had continued to hold onto power without elections, she might well have been overthrown. I don't quite buy the story that the west can just willy nilly get revolutions going against popularly elected governments through inducements. This isn't to say they aren't capable of making hay.

Most govts in the world are seen by many as venal, corrupt, inefficient and nepotistic. But, coup or revolution is not dependent merely on these things. Coups can be successful when a foreign backed agent uses some pretext to rally some masses(not all, but some people) and then suddenly uses the circumstances to stage a revolt or coup.

At the end of the day, it seems to be based on might. So, if some foreign country had given covert or overt support to the wall-street protestors and egged them on to stage a coup, there are good chances that it would succeed especially if devious methods are used. To believe that govts are safe from foreign backed coups or revolts just because they are supposed to be legitimate seems to be a naive view. Govts are safe from coups only due to might on ground. Legitimacy or lack of it is secondary.

Also, one does not know what is the legitimacy of any govt. Every govt would like to believe or atleast proclaim that they are legitimate and loved. But, whether vast number of people view the govt as legitimate or not is not known. Even if a considerable percentage of people think a particular Govt is not legitimate or needs to be thrown out, then it poses serious concerns for the Govt and opens it up for the threat of a coup or revolution especially if some foreign country get involved by offering covert or overt support. In every country and system, there are many people who would be disgruntled and such people can be harnessed by foreign powers to destabilize. On the other hand, every country, govt and system will try to save themselves by trying to portray themselves as the best and the alternatives as the worst.

[GeorgeWelch]

How the US/NATO lie with their "evidence" of Russian troop movements,just as it did with Saddam's WMDs!

http://rt.com/news/nato-satellite-images-drills-712/
NATO’s Russian troop build-up satellite images ‘show 2013 drills’

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26968312

An unnamed Russian military official responded to the release of the images by saying that the satellite photos were actually taken in 2013.

Nato, however, rejects the Russian allegations out of hand.

It says: "The dates of the images released by Shape were collected by the Digital Globe satellite 'Constellation' between late March and early April 2014. The images are unclassified and are commercially available in Digital Globe's public archive. Shape did not alter or edit the images in any way prior to release."