BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 09 Apr 2014 11:31

Serious prediction. NDA under 220 (maybe even under 230) means a major attempt to break BJP will follow. Laash will claim PM ship with SuSu as his deputy. Usual suspects (and some current NDA member parties) will all offer support to this "non Modi" faction of BJP. Many old school BJP MPs will be tempted to join it as the allure of forming a government draws within reach. Even Congress will offer this faction support from outside. AAP/left will refuse to offer support to maintain the pretense of a "clean" anti-establishment image as future political capital.

Such is the power of the Congress system- far stronger than the will of the voter. This election itself will only be the first of many battles in the long war ahead for Mr. Modi.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 09 Apr 2014 17:03

It is Rob Stark the young wolf who never lost a battle but had lost his life in Red wedding. NM is not Rob Stark. He has not weakness of Starks like stupidity while dealing with evil people. No one is going to stop him from becoming PM if BJP gets seats. Not so easily. Remember NM is RSS choice and no one in BJP do anything about it. Sushma Didi and others may enjoy sicular image in Mafia ruled Delhi but not with BJP workers.

With regards to seats, normal calculation during Atalji time is 100 plus what you get in UP plus Bihar. As per that it is 175 maximum. But BJP now significantly improved in places like Rajasthan wherein it is likly to sweep. So I feel it can be 125 plus UP and Bihar - so BJP alone is 200 plus and its allies like TDP TRS, Jagan and Captain, Vaiko etc people will contribute remaining seats to make it near 275.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 09 Apr 2014 18:10

NR, Did you put in your numbers or not yet?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 09 Apr 2014 19:17

Rudradev wrote:Serious prediction. NDA under 220 (maybe even under 230) means a major attempt to break BJP will follow. Laash will claim PM ship with SuSu as his deputy. Usual suspects (and some current NDA member parties) will all offer support to this "non Modi" faction of BJP. Many old school BJP MPs will be tempted to join it as the allure of forming a government draws within reach. Even Congress will offer this faction support from outside. AAP/left will refuse to offer support to maintain the pretense of a "clean" anti-establishment image as future political capital.

Such is the power of the Congress system- far stronger than the will of the voter. This election itself will only be the first of many battles in the long war ahead for Mr. Modi.

I hope you are absolutely wrong about this.

disha · Post by **disha** » 09 Apr 2014 19:46

Between 200-220 is what I selected.

At the minimum, BJP will win 184.

At the maximum, BJP will win 243.

We have moonshine and then there is niranshine.,

if as niran says (and there is a real possibility in that, given wave in entire NorthWest and wavelets in deep south)., BJP may cross the 265 line and of course NDA will be 300+.

However not to get my hopes up and sticking to reality.

--- Okay here are my probabilities for NDA (BJP+ All Lies including TDP)

1) Less than 200, 10%
2) Between 200-220, 20%
3) Between 221-240, 15%
4) Between 241-260, 30% <= This is where I think it will end up.
5) Between 261-280, 15%
6) between 281-300, 7%
7) or greater than 300, 3% <= Basing on Niran's ground report.

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 09 Apr 2014 22:34

BJP at 225, NDA at 272

disha · Post by **disha** » 09 Apr 2014 23:27

Can I change my vote? I was calculating BJP's numbers and voted accordingly. I voted for BJP numbers and not NDA's. Need to change that.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 09 Apr 2014 23:52

from the votes so far getting 220 is 0.92 probability.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Apr 2014 01:20

Disha you can change that by going back and editing. This time give a range for all the options.
Easy. Just cut and paste saral's post with you numbers.

All Saral will post the charts on Friday. So yuo get to participate every week till its really over!!!!

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 10 Apr 2014 03:02

1) Less than 200 0%
2) Between 200-220, 5%
3) Between 221-240, 5%
4) Between 241-260, 40%
5) Between 261-280, 40%
6) between 281-300 5%
7) or greater than 300 5%

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 10 Apr 2014 03:06

I will post summaries of the first week by Friday evening EST. Appreciate if everyone can post numbers (even if it is zero) for all 7 ranges. And, yes it is for NDA (not BJP alone).

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 10 Apr 2014 23:00

Q to ramana. If one has posted one's estimates earlier in the thread, and subsequently wants to revise them should one make another post? or revise the earlier post.

I want to revise my estimate based on my experience at the polling booth and inputs from various sources.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 10 Apr 2014 23:06

Its Tsunami sweeping India. People are not coming out to re-elect a deeply unpopular Govt at centre, 10% in excess of last avg poll %. Pollsters and caste pundits will bite dust this time. NaMo will be in two fingers onlee.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Apr 2014 23:58

Denis wrote:Q to ramana. If one has posted one's estimates earlier in the thread, and subsequently wants to revise them should one make another post? or revise the earlier post.

I want to revise my estimate based on my experience at the polling booth and inputs from various sources.

Saral will be tabulating the data COB Friday EST in US. So anyone can updaate before that would help.
After Friday use a new post to make it easy for the tabulation.

Thanks for participation.

I like the response.

soon we will have our GJ experts.

rvishwak · Post by **rvishwak** » 11 Apr 2014 01:00

1) Less than 200 0%
2) Between 200-220, 0%
3) Between 221-240, 30%
4) Between 241-260, 60%
5) Between 261-280, 10%
6) between 281-300 0%
7) or greater than 300 0%

But NAMO will loose onlee

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Apr 2014 01:33

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 11 Apr 2014 01:40

All. Given my time constraints, I am fast forwarding the collation today (instead of Fridin). We have 41 entries on the NDA side.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 01:44

Am going to lock the thread right now. Will reopen today evening 7:00pm PST.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 07:43

X-post...
Week 1 NDA

Table 1 is sorted in order of mean estimates (ESTIMATE) from each of the 41 distributions (rows). I use the center of each range as the weighting factor for each frequency (so 230.5 for the range 221 to 240). I used 180 and 320 as weights for the end ranges.

Table 2 is sorted by CONFIDENCE inferred from each distribution and is something made up for this collation. A perfectly uniform distribution indicates zero confidence (extreme hedging). At the other extreme, a confidence of 100 is assigned to people who put everything in 1 bin (zero hedging). Calculation: Each column in a row has an entropy term -p*log(p). Sum these up for each row and take the exponential of the sum. Subtract from 7, divide by 6, and multiply by 100 to map the score to the range 0 to 100.

ESTIMATE has mean=259, median=250, and SD=33. CONFIDENCE has mean=60, median=52, and SD=30. Consistent with literature, extreme estimates tend to be more confident as well. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 259) and the CONFIDENCE score is 0.64. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 267.

Table 1

Code: Select all

       JINGO        NDA180 NDA210 NDA230 NDA250 NDA270 NDA290 NDA320    ESTIMATE     CONFIDENCE
       
   Virupaksha        60     40      0      0      0      0      0         192            84
     Rudradev        20     55     20      5      0      0      0         210            65
        fanne        25     35     35      5      0      0      0         212            60
       archan        10     25     40     20      0      5      0         227            48
         saip        10     20     50     10     10      0      0         227            52
   Shaktimaan         0     40     40     10     10      0      0         228            62
        Klaus        40     18     10      5      4      3     20         229            33
       ravi_g         1     20     50     25      2      1      1         233            60
      matrimc         5     20     40     20     10      5      0         235            39
         kish         5     20     40     20     10      5      0         235            39
        Denis         0     10     60     15     15      0      0         237            66
       Marten        10     20     30     15     10     10      5         239            15
        disha        10     20     15     30     15      7      3         240            18
       krisna         5     10     35     35      5      5      5         242            37
         SRoy        15      5     15     15     50      0      0         245            52
         Kati         5     10     25     30     20     10      0         246            31
     rvishwak         0      0     30     60     10      0      0         246            76
 vijaykarthik         0      5     36     34     20      5      0         247            52
       rohitv        10     15     15     15     30     10      5         248            13
       merlin         5     10     20     30     20     10      5         250            19
       devesh         0      0      0    100      0      0      0         250           100
   MortWalker         5     10     15     20     30     10     10         257            15
        Patni         0      3     15     45     25     10      2         257            49
     Supratik         5     10     10     20     30     20      5         258            19
       jamwal         0      5     10     38     35     10      2         259            47
panduranghari         0      5      5     40     40      5      5         261            54
      saadhak         5     10     10     15     20     30     10         264            15
         Lilo         5     10     10     15     20     25     15         265            11
        Saral         0      5     15     20     30     15     15         268            27
 Nijalingappa         0      0      0      0    100      0      0         270           100
  NarayanaRao         0      0      0      0    100      0      0         270           100
      KJoishy         0      5      5      5     20     60      5         279            60
        RamaY         0      0     10     10     20     40     20         282            44
   kapilrdave         0      0     10     10     10     25     45         292            49
          Gus         0      0      0      0      0     50     50         305            83
    vivek.rao         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
        niran         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
    Dhananjay         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
       Kanson         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
         Manu         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
    chaanakya         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100

Table 2

Code: Select all

      JINGO        NDA180 NDA210 NDA230 NDA250 NDA270 NDA290 NDA320    ESTIMATE    CONFIDENCE
         
        Lilo         5     10     10     15     20     25     15         265            11
      rohitv        10     15     15     15     30     10      5         248            13
      Marten        10     20     30     15     10     10      5         239            15
  MortWalker         5     10     15     20     30     10     10         257            15
     saadhak         5     10     10     15     20     30     10         264            15
       disha        10     20     15     30     15      7      3         240            18
      merlin         5     10     20     30     20     10      5         250            19
    Supratik         5     10     10     20     30     20      5         258            19
       Saral         0      5     15     20     30     15     15         268            27
        Kati         5     10     25     30     20     10      0         246            31
       Klaus        40     18     10      5      4      3     20         229            33
      krisna         5     10     35     35      5      5      5         242            37
     matrimc         5     20     40     20     10      5      0         235            39
        kish         5     20     40     20     10      5      0         235            39
       RamaY         0      0     10     10     20     40     20         282            44
      jamwal         0      5     10     38     35     10      2         259            47
      archan        10     25     40     20      0      5      0         227            48
       Patni         0      3     15     45     25     10      2         257            49
  kapilrdave         0      0     10     10     10     25     45         292            49
        saip        10     20     50     10     10      0      0         227            52
        SRoy        15      5     15     15     50      0      0         245            52
vijaykarthik         0      5     36     34     20      5      0         247            52
anduranghari         0      5      5     40     40      5      5         261            54
       fanne        25     35     35      5      0      0      0         212            60
      ravi_g         1     20     50     25      2      1      1         233            60
     KJoishy         0      5      5      5     20     60      5         279            60
  Shaktimaan         0     40     40     10     10      0      0         228            62
    Rudradev        20     55     20      5      0      0      0         210            65
       Denis         0     10     60     15     15      0      0         237            66
    rvishwak         0      0     30     60     10      0      0         246            76
         Gus         0      0      0      0      0     50     50         305            83
  Virupaksha        60     40      0      0      0      0      0         192            84
      devesh         0      0      0    100      0      0      0         250           100
Nijalingappa         0      0      0      0    100      0      0         270           100
 NarayanaRao         0      0      0      0    100      0      0         270           100
   vivek.rao         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
       niran         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
   Dhananjay         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
      Kanson         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
        Manu         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100
   chaanakya         0      0      0      0      0      0    100         320           100

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Apr 2014 08:40

1) Less than 200 0%
2) Between 200-220, 20%
3) Between 221-240, 20%
4) Between 241-260, 30%
5) Between 261-280, 30%
6) between 281-300 0%
7) or greater than 300 0%

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 08:47

Hari is this for second round? If so can you use the format given by Saral in the GJP thread?

Like

Saral 0 5 30 10 20 15 20

Eg
Hari Seldon xx xx xx

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 11 Apr 2014 14:20

Bihar/Jharkhand Poll feedback for Poll Day 10th April that I got from relatives voting . "Congi/Laloo/JDU are tried and are scamsters. Now let us see Modi." Undecided voters have gone for NaMo. Ladies especially.

Gujrat is gone case for anybody but NaMo.

Bihar, UP, MP, Raj, Chattisgarh, HP, UK, Assam are in grip of TsuNaMo . Caste factors are not going to be major factor in most of the constituencies. They are going to decide who is next PM. Interestingly people are ignoring local candidates credentials unless they are too bad, which is not the case for BJP. So Shahnawaz will return despite what I feel about his work.

Additional voter turnouts are not going for Any established parties including BJP. They are going for NaMo. Note the subtle difference.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 11 Apr 2014 15:35

Panduranghari 0 0 0 40 40 15 5

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 11 Apr 2014 16:46

Hari Seldon 0 0 20 20 30 30 0 0

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 11 Apr 2014 17:02

ramana wrote:NR, Did you put in your numbers or not yet?

Did sir. One thing am worrried is one or two seats wherein power mafia and B team leaders who are very difficult to defeat like NCP in some seats in MH and few mafia leaders in MP. BJP needs fantastic conversion rate to get s decent 225plus. I have done electioneering during RJB agitation days and found that the sentiment is difficult to convert in to seat. NM how ever presenting a very confident picture therefore conversion will be much better now. TDP and LJP are very critical in critical states and make NDA candidates wining ones.

But in places like Kerala, Odissa, West Bengal talk of winning seats is bit over optimistic. Many times being a winning candidate is very important factor. It gives lot of push to silent supporter who otherwise would have voted to others or stayed at home. Places like Kerala BJP candidates may lose out on this count. I hope I am wrong and NM will surprise me.

Klaus · Post by **Klaus** » 11 Apr 2014 17:53

Here goes, my values for Week 2 of the GJP Trial Poll for NDA

<200: 30%
200-220: 4%
221-240: 4%
241-260: 30%
261-280: 0%
281-300: 0%
>300: 32%

In the required format, its 30 4 4 30 0 0 32

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 11 Apr 2014 18:16

The new format is much easier to handle. Please use it. Also participate in the UPA thread as well for Week 2.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 11 Apr 2014 18:31

0 0 0 10 20 30 40

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 11 Apr 2014 18:34

Week 2 GJP Trial:

Denis: 0 0 18 54 18 10 0

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 11 Apr 2014 20:28

@saral & ramana - do I assume that if I don't post it for this week, you will auto impute earlier week values for this week (and every subsequent week)? [that's how GJP works]

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 20:32

That would be a new twist. But seriously doesn't that imply a disconnect at ignoring new information? I would rather the paricipant willinngly state no change to previous inputs. Shows active decision.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 11 Apr 2014 20:38

good point

how it works is this way: People are expected to be on top of the question. If they aren't, they are penalized. Like say for eg, I get a new report which says NDA gets 280 seats and I am at 230, I am expected to make changes. Ditto when seats expected are lesser and I am at a higher position. So, if someone takes the new information and changes forecasts, that gets reflected. Else, the older one gets carried forward.

So, that way its easier to track who is active and on top on information and hence making intelligent decisions too. [Besides think of this case: no opinion polls / anything scientific to base the new probability on. It will be just "hearing through people" or a new gut instinct etc.]

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 11 Apr 2014 23:40

5 10 10 20 30 20 5

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 11 Apr 2014 23:58

post poll so far--

<200: 0
200-220: 5
221-240: 40
241-260: 40
261-280: 5
281-300: 5
>300: 5

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Apr 2014 00:05

Highest seat tally was by Rajiv Gandhi 411.
Now options don't give one choice to put $ in ranges. Perhaps >300 is equal to ?400 and >500 as well. Of course getting >400 and >500 would be deemed impossible in this election. Better options could be in stepping in range of 50. That would give more options for those who are more or less convinced of congi decimation. Or at least , beyond 272 give options in range of 25 or 50.

270-295
295-320
320-345
345-370
370-395
395-420
>420

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 12 Apr 2014 01:43

vijaykarthik: yes, we can auto-impute later but saying "no change" or re-posting old numbers is better. We have 6 more days for next collation. I guess people can still edit if they so choose. Also request people to do UPA as well; first week's table provides info if you don't have any idea.

chaanakya: true but we don't want to complicate life for participants and are sticking with the scale we have. For weighting, the end ranges are considered (for NDA) to be 180 and 320 (if I recall.. the table has that info). So in some sense the scale is ignoring values way below 180 or way above 320 (for NDA).

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 12 Apr 2014 04:08

[matrimc,nda,[5%,10%,15%,45%,20%,5%,0%]]

Kanson · Post by **Kanson** » 12 Apr 2014 11:21

330 - 344

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Apr 2014 16:33

Seats by Largest Party and Runner up in Loksabha so far

Code: Select all

LokSabha   	Year  	    Tally

1st Loksabha	1951	INC		       364
			             CPI		       16
--------------------------------------------
2nd Loksabha	1957	INC		       371
			             CPI		       27
--------------------------------------------
3rd Loksabha	1962	INC		       361
			             CPI		        29
--------------------------------------------
4th Loksabha	1967	INC		        283
		     	        Swatantra Prty	44
--------------------------------------------
5th Loksabha	1971	INC		       352
			             NDF		       51
--------------------------------------------
6th Loksabha	1977	Janata Alliance	345
			             INC		        153
--------------------------------------------
7th Loksabha	1980	INC		       351
			           Lokdal		        41
--------------------------------------------
8th Loksabha	1984	INC		      404
			            TDP		       30
--------------------------------------------
9th Loksabha	1989	INC		     197
			             JD		     143
--------------------------------------------
10th Loksabha	1991	INC		    244
			             BJP		    120
--------------------------------------------
11th Loksabha	1996	BJP		    161
			             INC		    140
--------------------------------------------
12th Loksabha	1998	BJP		   182	
			             INC		   141
--------------------------------------------
13th Loksabha	1999	BJP		    180
			              INC		    114
--------------------------------------------
14th Loksabha	2004	INC		    145
			             BJP		    138
--------------------------------------------
15th Loksabha	2009	INC		    206		
			             BJP		    116
============================================
16th Loksabha	2014	*		*
			*		*
============================================

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 12 Apr 2014 17:37

1) Less than 200 : 5
2) Between 200-220 : 5
3) Between 221-240 : 10
4) Between 241-260 : 10
5) Between 261-280 : 20
6) between 281-300 : 40
7) Above 300 : 10