Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 13:34

‘Nehru, Manmohan to blame for graft’ - Mahatma Gandhi's personal secretary U V Kalyanam now AAP member
http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Vij ... e[quote]In fact, Gandhiji wanted dissolution of the Congress party after Independence and formation of a new party. But, nobody listened to the Father of the Nation, he said, quoting Gandhiji’s words: “Today, mine is a lone voice. I now say things which do not go home. I know that I am a back number. Yet, I go on saying what I believe to be true.”[/quote]

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 13:55

Hindi belt in Modi's thrall: India Today-Cicero poll reveals major gains for BJP in UP and Bihar
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/indiahome/in ... l[quote]If the Hindi heartland is the key to the 16th Lok Sabha, then BJP prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has it in his pocket.

The latest Battleground States Opinion Poll conducted by polling agency Cicero for the India Today Group shows that the Modi 'hawa' is now at gale force in the heartland states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Voters are set to give the BJP up to 68 of the 120 seats in these two states, the party's vote share projected to jump by a game-changing 17.5 per cent in Uttar Pradesh and 16.7 per cent in Bihar.

Mayawati in Uttar Pradesh and Nitish Kumar in Bihar are the ones yielding the most to Modi. Uttar Pradesh has been at the heart of the Modi campaign, with the Gujarat chief minister himself contesting from Varanasi in the eastern part of the state.

...
Mayawati seems to be ceding the most ground to the BJP, with the BSP vote share likely to come down by 9.4 per cent from the 27.3 per cent chunk the party bagged last time.

According to the Cicero poll, Mayawati has lost a major chunk of the Brahmin, Baniya, Rajput and Jat vote she had won in 2009. In its core support base of Jatavs, the BSP remains the first choice of a substantial 45 per cent of the respondents. But this is 17 per cent less than the Jatavs who voted for the BSP in the last elections, with 15 per cent of those saying that they would vote for the BJP in these elections.

The SP is holding on to its Yadav-Muslim vote bank with the party's overall vote share projected at 22 per cent in comparison with 23.3 per cent in 2009. The SP remains the preferred choice of half the state's Yadavs, which is only a marginal downgrade from the 2009 situation.

Despite the Muzaffarnagar riots, the SP has consolidated its vote share among the Ashraf and Pasmanda Muslims of Uttar Pradesh. Forty per cent of Pasmanda Muslims and 28 per cent of Ashraf Muslims are ready to vote SP.

The Congress vote share is likely to come down to 17 per cent, down by almost 4.5 percentage points of what the party aggregated in 2009. The party is losing the upper caste Hindu vote. The only community for which the Congress is the top choice is the Ashraf Muslims, 32 per cent of whom have indicated that they would like to vote Congress.

The BJP is in a dominant position in all seven major regions of Uttar Pradesh. It is only in the 14 seats of the Doab region that the vote percentage of the SP is marginally more than that of the BJP. The only other region where there is a close contest is in the 14 seats of North-east Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP is on the heels of the SP.

...
Nitish Kumar may soon rue the day he decided to part ways with the BJP. The India Today Group Cicero Opinion Poll indicates a complete rout of the Janata Dal (United). From a high of 20 seats in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) tally could crash to as low as between 0-2 seats. The BJP and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janashakti Party (LJP) are projected to win 20-24 seats, a jump from the 12 seats they accounted for in the 2009 polls.

...
The BJP and LJP taken together are projected to near-double their vote share from 20.5 per cent in 2009 to 38 per cent this time. In what should ring alarm bells in the RJD, the BJP seems to have been able to pull a substantial chunk of the Yadav vote away from Lalu's party. Bihar is witnessing a massive upper caste consolidation in favour of Modi, with Bhumihars, Rajputs and Brahmins rallying behind the BJP.

Modi is set to hit Nitish where it hurts most, pulling away the JD(U)'s core Kurmi-Koeri vote bank. In fact the number of Kurmis and Koeris who said they would vote for the BJP was twice those who said they would vote for Nitish.

The alliance with Paswan means the BJP has also been able to penetrate deep into the Dalit vote bank. The BJP has doubled its vote share among the Jatavs, Pasis and other Dalit castes. Nitish Kumar's calculation was that the Muslims of Bihar would migrate en masse towards the JD(U) because of the position he took on Modi.

His gamble seems to have flopped with both Pasmanda and Ashraf Muslims preferring to vote for the RJD-Congress combine rather than the JD(U). The BJP is the most popular party among young voters of Bihar, with 43 per cent indicating that they would vote for the lotus.

Modi seems to have been able to convince the youth that he is the best suited to deliver growth and development to the country.

The Cicero Opinion Poll also comes up with the surprising find that the BJP's popularity is about 5 per cent more in rural areas than it is in urban areas. [/quote]

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 14:03

New Indian Express ‏@NewIndianXpress 5m

SC Refuses Plea Questioning #SIT Clean Chit to #Modi - http://tnie.in/1jxIX1F

... plea for reconstituting the SIT involving retired judges of the apex court, including a person from the minority community.

One more try ...

Also note, the sickulars want a veto in all such future proceedings. Sort of CVB by the back doors where sickulars will judge communals and sickulars of-course will be beyond reproach. Wah janab!

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 11 Apr 2014 14:14

The seven day wait is nerve wrecking. So much time to try to stop the momentum!

Luckily, the idiots at SP are giving enough cannon fooder to distract the media...

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 11 Apr 2014 14:27

x-posted

Bihar/Jharkhand Poll feedback for Poll Day 10th April that I got from relatives voting . "Congi/Laloo/JDU are tried and are scamsters. Now let us see Modi." Undecided voters have gone for NaMo. Ladies especially.

Gujrat is gone case for anybody but NaMo.

Bihar, UP, MP, Raj, Chattisgarh, HP, UK, Assam are in grip of TsuNaMo . Caste factors are not going to be major factor in most of the constituencies. They are going to decide who is next PM. Interestingly people are ignoring local candidates credentials unless they are too bad, which is not the case for BJP. So Shahnawaz will return despite what I feel about his work.

Additional voter turnouts are not going for Any established parties including BJP. They are going for NaMo. Note the subtle difference.

Well , additionally from the ground I am seeing congis downcast and cadres demoralised. Not able to answer voter's questions on scams which have affected them severely.

Coal linked to power shortage

CWG with prestige

2G with Rampant looting.

There are only two agendas

Corruption and Namo.

Every party is feeling the heat.

I would also like to assure that there is nothing called EVM magic. But nothing wrong in keeping guard.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 11 Apr 2014 14:37

Jammu district had recorded 70% and samba 75% polling. The final tally on Rajouri and Poonch districts is to be complied late evening, though till 5 pm they had recorded 59 and 57 percentage respectively

Jammu seat confirmed for BJP. Rajauri Poonch has a mix of Hindu Sikh Muslim population. I was only worried about voter mobilisation and Jammu did well.

niran · Post by **niran** » 11 Apr 2014 14:59

RajeshA wrote:I had said that AAP is going to get a big ZERO for Parliament.

With Mukhtar Ansari withdrawing his nomination, perhaps Kejri can save his deposit in Varanasi! I find this tragic. BJP should simply tell Mukhtar Ansari that if he withdraws, he is going to be sent to jail for so long, his mommy would forget he ever lived.

eggzactly the feelings here at ground level his brother afzal ansari during the press conference was directly asked who is paying most?

sasram
meira Kumar shall henceforth be meira cumar the paswan chappie fought tooth and nail the public remembered NaMo' rally and forgot soniaG rally
newada
bjp got 69%+ votes in plain angalaise Giri Babu gonna eat up his opponents deposits

jaya prada will lose her deposit from Bijnour.

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 11 Apr 2014 15:28

Prem Kumar wrote:I dont have a deep understanding of Kerala politics. But for a state where BJP has won nothing, if we get 2 seats, its commendable. Without Hindu unity (Nairs + Ezhavas), further inroads wouldnt be possible

nageshks wrote:Earlier, BJP was limited to Kasargod and Manjeshwar Assembly constituencies, which are Tulu speaking and have more affinity towards coastal Karnataka. But BJP expanding into Malabar would be good from many perspectives, not least having someone to keep the Gulf enriched Jihadis in check

Marten wrote:If BJP were serious about increasing seats in Kerala, it would need the support of NSS for Nairs and SNDP for Ezhavas.

Just back from the commie heaven after voting. On the BJP front, in some constituencies they had fielded candidates who have not pretty much done any thing for that area. Mainly because they were good BJP workers in another part of the state. But it looks like the strategy was to ensure that BJP shows its presence in all places (whether they win or not does not matter). Thiruvananthapuram and Kasaragode are two constituencies they have hopes on. But what should be noted is that BJP is no more the Pariah in commie heaven.

On BJP focussing on Nairs and Ezhavas. These groups already have lots of business/educational instituitions etc. So they (at an organisational level) may only sway if BJP has some thing solid to offer. Both the commies and congress ruling Kerala have ways and means to some how deal with these groups. These groups also are purely local to Kerala. So unless BJP gives them some tangible benefit which makes them look better in Kerala, they may still shuttle between commies and Congress. At present for them BJP is a party which does not have much power (to help them).

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 11 Apr 2014 15:40

^
This is something I was about to write. At the moment sticking with BJP is a big risk as they don't have anything to offer and antagonising LDF-UDF combine will result in loss of favours in government. This will change the moment BJP opens account in Kerala. MLA is better than an MP in this regard. So to win you need these people's support and without a win they won't support. This circle has to be broken somehow.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 11 Apr 2014 15:43

Dilbu wrote:^
This is something I was about to write. At the moment sticking with BJP is a big risk as they don't have anything to offer and antagonising LDF-UDF combine will result in loss of favours in government. This will change the moment BJP opens account in Kerala. MLA is better than an MP in this regard. So to win you need these people's support and without a win they won't support. This circle has to be broken somehow.

I know dozens of people who did not vote for BJP in Kerala because "it is a vote wasted" or "bjp candidate is not going to win anyway" or "choosing over a lesser local evil", all coming from right wing dispositions

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2014 15:52

Marten wrote:If BJP were serious about increasing seats in Kerala, it would need the support of NSS for Nairs and SNDP for Ezhavas. Make sure to give them enough support because these are the two only demographics that will vote for BJP as of now. (iirc both are already supporting the BJP, but getting the cadre in place will be far more important).

A few Ezhava, Nair, Pulayar and Orthodox Christian faces at the national level in a Modi Govt. could overturn the whole Kerala political system in the next Assembly elections in April 2016.

In fact even a single prominent Ezhava face would suffice to make Nairs sufficiently jealous to try their luck with NaMo in the Assembly Elections.

James B · Post by **James B** » 11 Apr 2014 16:02

From this article, its clear that booth management by BJP karyakartas is solid & virtually ruling the roost in Western UP.

Lok Sabha polls 2014: Narendra Modi’s march to 7 Race Course has begun

If what I have witnessed on Thursday after driving through hundreds of kilometres cutting across several constituencies of Western Uttar Pradesh, holds true in the rest of the state and has a traction effect on neighbouring areas, it appears then that Bharatiya Janata Party presidential nominee, Narendra Modi, has begun his march to 7, Race Course Road with more than a steady canter.

In one polling station after another - both in urban and rural areas -- one witnessed micro-level booth management by the steel frame of the Sangh Parivar, integrated so seamlessly that it was difficult to differentiate between members of the BJP, Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh and Vishwa Hindu Parishad.

It was evident that this is truly a battle in which the entire Parivar is united and have cast away for the moment whatever misgivings they may have had for Modi in the run up to the polls.

The turnout has been high, polarisation on community lines could not have been sharper, the motivation of the BJP workers is at an unprecedented level, and the morale of the election agents of non-BJP candidates was at the lowest.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 11 Apr 2014 16:06

Sachin wrote: On BJP focussing on Nairs and Ezhavas. These groups already have lots of business/educational instituitions etc. So they (at an organisational level) may only sway if BJP has some thing solid to offer. Both the commies and congress ruling Kerala have ways and means to some how deal with these groups. These groups also are purely local to Kerala. So unless BJP gives them some tangible benefit which makes them look better in Kerala, they may still shuttle between commies and Congress. At present for them BJP is a party which does not have much power (to help them).

In that case make them realise what will they lose if they dont vote for BJP in future.

vic · Post by **vic** » 11 Apr 2014 16:10

So BJP might get 240 with NDA around 300

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 11 Apr 2014 16:13

small but important question-- with micro level booth management--
reports say that BJP booth was full of people compared to congis and its b team.

How can BJP claim that all people who came to them voted for them.

can voters do takia here.

( I did in the last time I voted- I just went ot the nearest booth while entering to vote-- it was a congi booth-- confirmed my voting credentials and voted BJP.

)

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 11 Apr 2014 16:14

Niran any news on Aurangabad?

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 11 Apr 2014 16:34

krisna wrote:small but important question-- with micro level booth management--
reports say that BJP booth was full of people compared to congis and its b team.

How can BJP claim that all people who came to them voted for them.

can voters do takia here.

( I did in the last time I voted- I just went ot the nearest booth while entering to vote-- it was a congi booth-- confirmed my voting credentials and voted BJP. )

Booth level karyakarta generally know the pattern of their booth. They know each gully-mohalla's voting pattern. This is true at least for BJP. So they take utmost care to ensure maximum voting from the favorable area. They are pretty good at sensing the trend also. I for one know where to go to pull people out of their home in my area

.

This time the definition of micro-level management has changed! Apart from booth level karyakarta , there are "page-pramukh" also. A page consists of a list of 42 voters of a booth. A dedicated karyakarta is responsible to get those 42 out to vote. That page-pramukh can have 2-3 subordinates as well

.
This is Gujarat I'm talking about.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 11 Apr 2014 16:48

vic wrote:So BJP might get 240 with NDA around 300

One is never sure. The following is what worries me. It has appeared on Madhu Kishwar's website:

India’s Struggle for Verifiable Voting
Are Electronic Voting Machines Reliable?
By Sameer Jalnapurkar

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 11 Apr 2014 16:52

ok.. now I am bit relieved, than I was yesterday..

Nagpur - gadkari getting approximately 45% vote of total votes cast (45% of 59%)
wardha - dominant teli community has gone en block for NaMo.. Meghe will have a very tough fight.. Even if Meghe wins, it will be on wafer thin margin.
Amravati - the actress will bite dust.. Sena retains the seat. the marwadi community of city played decisive role.
Gadchiroli - tribal seat. low voter turnout. BJP may find it tough to defend this seat. they won here last time. many villages boycotted the polls
chandrapur - NDA all the way.
akola - religious polarization. peaceful votes went en-block to UPA. OBC to BJP. marathas experienced split, with big chunk coming towards lotus way.
Gondia - this is fun seat. Praful patel had to use modi's picture in his campaign.

patel may lose by huge margin OR win by very small margin.
Ramtek - this is one seat where dharmiks are relatively unsure. wasnik and INC is more or less consolidated here. I won't count this one in the kitty. if it comes in kitty, aoa onlee..
yavatmal - Sena wins this one with almost 42% of total votes..
Buldhana - Sena wins..

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 11 Apr 2014 17:12

In fact even a single prominent Ezhava face would suffice to make Nairs sufficiently jealous to try their luck with NaMo in the Assembly Elections.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 17:57

Aditya Raj Kaul ‏@AdityaRajKaul 29m

Breaking News: Former Advisor to PM Manmohan Singh, Sanjay Baru, claims in his book that Sonia Gandhi cleared files before PM. #TimesNow

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 14m

And since all files were cleared by SoniaG .. stands to reason she personally cleared all the SCAMS too.. @ndtv @timesnow @ibnlive

Minhaz Merchant ‏@minhazmerchant 16m

Dr Sanjaya Baru's book "The Accidental Prime Minister" reveals Sonia cleared all PMO files. Includes 2g, Coalgate, cwg, Agusta

Hindustan Times ‏@htTweets 18m

Judge to probe snoopgate case allegedly involving Narendra Modi will be named soon, says law minister Kapil Sibal

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 11 Apr 2014 18:01

Did Mulayam directly tell Muslims that they can rape Hindu girls at will & he will see to it that they are not punished? He made the comments in front of a Muslim crowd, afaik.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 11 Apr 2014 18:26

Chandragupta wrote:Did Mulayam directly tell Muslims that they can rape Hindu girls at will & he will see to it that they are not punished? He made the comments in front of a Muslim crowd, afaik.

Read MullahM and Abu-Azmi's comments together.

Where are four witnesses? If no witnesses, it will become adultery case and wimmen should be punished.

they are telling the youth how it could have been much better if there was sharia.

please note, all those dozens of rape cases in UP will come under nirbhaya law once new govt comes to stage.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 18:29

Chandragupta wrote:Can Kejri enter Parliament by RS route? Or is that closed?

He can be a useful (dangerous) clown. He will do what Congress wants, but might keep the family out of the media limelight. He is like nuclear energy, you can use it power the country or blast another country. So is BJP mature and wise to use him? That is the question Modi, his team and BJP has to ask and answer.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 11 Apr 2014 18:30

As Varanasi gets polarised, Kejriwal may be out in the cold

Western Uttar Pradesh, which went to the polls yesterday (10 April), has already set the tone, with Muslims voting en bloc against the BJP and the Jats and other communities veering towards BJP. Early reports say the SP and the BJP are in No 1 and No 2 positions in most seats, with BSP and Congress facing the pressure.

??? Not BJP, BSP in that order ?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 11 Apr 2014 18:31

Arnab's main story tonight is the "Rubber Stamp Theory"

Sonia vetting all files before PMO gets it.

Sumeet · Post by **Sumeet** » 11 Apr 2014 18:36

Swamy G will definitely watch this tonight. Also, he has been going after SP following Azam Khan and Mulayam's remarks. Loved how he continued showing empty chair for Gaurav Bhatia, SP representative on the show to let his audience know that SP might be boycotting his show. Finally when Bhatia showed up he was very pissed and Arnab didn't care two cents about it

Too bad Abu Azmi was a little late in making his comment otherwise SP would have faced a lot more flak. With this kind of top leadership SP should be removed from political picture in India.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 18:54

SwamyG wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Can Kejri enter Parliament by RS route? Or is that closed?
He can be a useful (dangerous) clown. He will do what Congress wants, but might keep the family out of the media limelight. He is like nuclear energy, you can use it power the country or blast another country. So is BJP mature and wise to use him? That is the question Modi, his team and BJP has to ask and answer.

He is a cloth dick. Once govt changes after 16 th May, media hand holding it won't be there.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 19:03

As I said EC is filled with Dynasty stooges.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 11 Apr 2014 19:05

Nice. sacrifice a useless pawn to muzzle the knight.

hopefully Namo can compensate with a few additional meetings pulled from his schedule and exploit this situation more.

war has started in earnest.....little yellow wildflowers sway in the summer wind.....a abandoned village named Prokhorovka.....and swarms of SS panzer tanks thicker than flies on a buffalo's behind motoring through the mud roads in "tactics of the wedge". a thin red line of red army spotters and AT gun crews manning the ridgeline prepares to engage.

Zitadelle is on.

Arunkumar · Post by **Arunkumar** » 11 Apr 2014 19:12

Thanks EC. People now would be more inclined to take apman ka badla.

svenkat · Post by **svenkat** » 11 Apr 2014 19:12

Ack thoo to the Election commissioners responsible.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 11 Apr 2014 19:14

EC is doing ==. The Azam Khan statement was to facilitate this. Now no one can complain on EC.

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 11 Apr 2014 19:19

gandharva wrote:As I said EC is filled with Dynasty stooges.

On what grounds was amit shah banned. All he said was that go out and vote, it is the democratic was of doing things.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 11 Apr 2014 19:19

guys any fresh input from yesterday anywhere, including twitter??

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 11 Apr 2014 19:29

fanne wrote:guys any fresh input from yesterday anywhere, including twitter??

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 19:36

Sanjay Baru on TimesNow

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 11 Apr 2014 19:40

Did EC actually listen to the audio and understand exactly what Amit Shah said? Hope EC's definition of free speech doesn't become like MSM's definition of "secularism"

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 11 Apr 2014 19:41

Allahabad HC allowed the withdrawal of petition by Amit Shah, who wanted to reply to EC notice, on the condition that he will not bring the issue again before the court.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 19:41

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1m

A lot of us in the PMO knew that Sonia Gandhi was clearing files: Sanjaya Baru #RubberStampPM