Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

archan · Post by **archan** » 11 Apr 2014 22:26

If 200+ crorepatis who have helipads in their homes start losing, I will admit the wave is bigger than I thought. Let's wait till the 16th though.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 11 Apr 2014 22:27

RajeshA wrote:
muraliravi wrote:6. "Delhi minimum 6"
Really wonder which Delhi seat is in question and to whom would BJP lose!

I heard Lekhi seat is tight

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 11 Apr 2014 22:27

RajeshA wrote:
muraliravi wrote:6. "Delhi minimum 6"
Really wonder which Delhi seat is in question and to whom would BJP lose!

I guess it is the East Delhi seat where Sandeep Dikshit (Former Delhi CM, current Kerala Governor - Sheila Dikshit's son) of INC is contesting & competing with Rajmohan of AAP & supposedly weak BJP candidate ... Mahesh Girri.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 11 Apr 2014 22:31

muraliravi wrote:Ok guys, I finally have leaks from an inside source at CSDS-Lokniti from their exit poll data

Take everything with some salt

Verbatim

1. "If trend continues, BJP to get 240 on its own, its ahead of rivals by huge margins"
2. "Western UP is a flood with literal whitewash"
3. "5/6 for NDA in Bihar"
4. "Kamalnath to lose"
5. "Haryana, small set back but still min 4 to BJP, INLD will gain"
6. "Delhi minimum 6"
7. "everyone in csds is surprised with the margins, BJP has many seats with more than 50% vote share"

Thank you Sir!

Feeling little bit of relief. On the edge

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 22:32

April 12th, 7 seats in North East go to polls.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_gen ... tion,_2014

Next biggie is the April 17th when 121 seats are in play and then April 24th when 117 are at stake. By 4/30 majority are done.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 22:35

muraliravi Ok to tweet?

Reason is am with Mort on this. Need to make the middle class bandwagon on the wave.

member_20292 · Post by **member_20292** » 11 Apr 2014 22:35

muraliravi wrote:For those who have subscribed to 5forty3 and are unable to login, let me just post highlights of trends at 3PM voting.

1. BJP sweeping western UP beyond even their own expectations
2. BJP is leading in Haryana, Congress is not far behind
3. BJP will decimate everyone in Delhi
4. BJP just making mincemeat of everyone in Bihar
5. BJP and Congress are neck to neck in Madhya Pradesh (in the 9 seats that went to polls, BUT BUT, he put a caveat there saying it is 1 PM data and he has not received data from interiors and even during the assembly polls, he had same exp of MP showing cong=bjp till noon and after he received data from every location/booth, BJP sweep was clear)

So overall very good.

5forty3 subscription is messed up - unable to fathom it.

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 11 Apr 2014 22:36

ramana wrote:Next biggie is the April 17th when 121 seats are in play and then April 24th when 117 are at stake

Wait for congi's & MSM to create controversy just before those dates (April 17th and 24th), so BJP does not have time to regroup and redirect the attack.

To prevent this, BJP should be on attack mode and force opposition on defensive throughout the election! Hopefully BJP has some stuff up their sleeve in expectation of this dirty attack from congi-MSMs.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 11 Apr 2014 22:43

You are all kafirs. Modi will lose onlee.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 11 Apr 2014 22:43

ramana garu,

On the other hand will it make middle class complacent and keep them at home?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 11 Apr 2014 22:44

I bought the Kindle version of Sanjaya Baru's book off Amazon. It's only $9.99 promotional deal for Kindle version. The print version costs $45 .

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Apr 2014 22:45

ramana wrote:muraliravi Ok to tweet?

Reason is am with Mort on this. Need to make the middle class bandwagon on the wave.

Sure, no problem

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 22:46

Dibu, Good to see you back in the role. Keep at it please.

Vamsee, There is no more opportunist class than the middle class in India. They will bandwagon.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 11 Apr 2014 22:48

vamsee, Do the honors please as you are an expert by now. And all please retweet to your followers to ensure spreading the message. And I want everyone o help out and no just read!

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 11 Apr 2014 22:49

ok....

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 11 Apr 2014 22:54

Done....Whoever want to RT, can go ahead and do it.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 11 Apr 2014 22:56

Previously it was commented here that NDA would be fighting only on 540 seats rather than 543. Seats where NDA doesn't have a candidate would then be:

1) Nilgiris (TN) - BJP
2) Chidambaram (TN) - PMK
3) Srinagar (JK) - BJP

Just a piece of news:
In Chidambaram the wife of the PMK candidate, whose nomination application was rejected due to procedural reasons, would be fighting as she had filed her nomination papers as an alternate candidate. So there is a NDA candidate on the seat.

On the other hand, in Nilgiris, even the alternate candidate was rejected.

In Srinagar, I am not sure BJP had an alternate candidate!

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 11 Apr 2014 23:04

I don't know kis mooh seh foreigners give Indians advice on who is good for them. This is a frikkin election in the biggest democracy in the world. Indians will decide who they want as PM, whether it is a weakling sell out like MMS or a nationalist patriot like Narendra Modi.

Why do these people think they have a right to warn Indian people?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Apr 2014 23:05

mahadevbhu wrote:
5forty3 subscription is messed up - unable to fathom it.

Mbhu,

Muraliraviji can speak to us on this forum in an informal manner, it is still speculation, but somewhat closed to the outside. Dr. Patil can't be so forthright and he has to go through the data as well. We still need info on MH and Kerala at this time.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 11 Apr 2014 23:07

Guys, I hope there is no confusion, the latest from MR is not from 543, it is some other independent source!!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Apr 2014 23:07

Vamsee,

Can you please edit that tweet where you reference csds, can you just say major msm exit poll company or something like that.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 23:12

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 2h

Dear @BJP4India .. As Venkiah Naidu threatened.. Please open up 1) Sukanya rape case.. 2) 2001 Boston case of Rahul & 3) Afghan woman case

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 11 Apr 2014 23:17

pankajs wrote:Timesnow > Munna mohan very very close to Bush Administration.

Seems Siachen push was munna's idea and was opposed by both AKA and dada. Taken with the previous statement it would seem Siachen push might have been originated and driven by the unkill.

This was known long ago.

Hint: read the siachen dhaaga about who wanted to gift it away

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 11 Apr 2014 23:25

MRgaru,

Removed the tweet and replaced it with another tweet. Removed the source info.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 11 Apr 2014 23:26

It is best not to tweet csds leak. The forum benefits from inside info.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 11 Apr 2014 23:28

Odisha's voter turn out 74.5%, fresh poll in 22 polling booths
http://zeenews.india.com/news/assembly- ... 23869.html

Bhubaneswar: The voter turn out during yesterday's first phase polling for 10 Lok Sabha constituencies and 70 Assembly seats in Odisha was 74.48 percent as against the previous election (2009) ratio of 65.5 percent, official sources said.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Apr 2014 23:29

Supratik wrote:It is best not to tweet csds leak. The forum benefits from inside info.

Agreed. +1

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 11 Apr 2014 23:31

i second that

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Apr 2014 23:31

pankajs wrote: Bhubaneswar: The voter turn out during yesterday's first phase polling for 10 Lok Sabha constituencies and 70 Assembly seats in Odisha was 74.48 percent as against the previous election (2009) ratio of 65.5 percent, official sources said.

Does anyone have any info about which way the wind's blowing over there? Since Patnaik has ruled out joining the NDA, the road to 272 got a little more difficult.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 11 Apr 2014 23:40

One clue is that Modi thanked Odisha voters and went hammer tongs on Naveen Babu (meaning that he has little hope for post alignment, or maybe they are doing good).
There is no exit poll for Odisha. So we will have to wait until then. One curious point to note for Orissa would be, India today had done a big survey in 2007-2008 and in Odisha, voting % it showed wad NP 33%, BJP -30 and Con 27%. The assembly/LS election that followed, BJP got last, NP surged ahead. Then few other opinion poll said the same, but the real results were very different. Some surveys have also said that BJP is on the heals of NP. Bottom line, BJP had lots of latent support, but maybe because of lack of local candidate or chance people went mostly NP way. Will this be an election, where Odisha people went ahead and voted Modi (overlooking the local candidate) and in that respect maybe BJP is lucky this time? This is how, it looks like rest of India is voting.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 11 Apr 2014 23:43

too late. ramana garu and MRgaru gave go ahead to tweet and I tweeted them already.
MR garu asked me to edit the source (CSDS). I deleted and replace with XXXX

But twitter is unforgiving. some may already have seen it

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 11 Apr 2014 23:44

So until now, we've seen a higher voter turnout than the previous few elections? More younger folks voting?

anmol · Post by **anmol** » 11 Apr 2014 23:47

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 11 Apr 2014 23:48

Vamsee wrote:too late. ramana garu and MRgaru gave go ahead to tweet and I tweeted them already.
MR garu asked me to edit the source (CSDS). I deleted and replace with XXXX
But twitter is unforgiving. some may already have seen it

If this goes around, we may not get any info from MR's source in CSDS.

Maybe I'm old, but WTF is the deal with all this Twitter shit?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 11 Apr 2014 23:52

Whats done is done. We should keep the inside info just for the forum.

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 11 Apr 2014 23:54

Mort Walker wrote:Maybe I'm old, but WTF is the deal with all this Twitter shit?

Apparently, we are, saar!!

I too need to get on to Teetar. This morning, colleagues of mine were mentioning that you can get good deals ( travel, etc. ).

Time to join and 'follow', I guess.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 11 Apr 2014 23:54

Vamsee wrote:too late. ramana garu and MRgaru gave go ahead to tweet and I tweeted them already.
MR garu asked me to edit the source (CSDS). I deleted and replace with XXXX
But twitter is unforgiving. some may already have seen it

thats fine, thanks

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 11 Apr 2014 23:55

fanne wrote:One clue is that Modi thanked Odisha voters and went hammer tongs on Naveen Babu (meaning that he has little hope for post alignment, or maybe they are doing good).
There is no exit poll for Odisha.

Do you mean CSDS and the other agencies don't do an exit poll for Orissa? Why is that? Muraliravi obtained inside data for UP, Bihar, etc. He didn't get any for Orissa, so what you say must be true.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 12 Apr 2014 00:00

Everyone's collecting inside information and exit poll data in each phase. They just can't publish them formally until May 12 or later. Regardless, in this age of information, trends are not hard to spot, and dissemination of anecdotal information is impossible to contain. That should be used to further build momentum for the remaining phases.

Several months back (autumn of 2013 I think) I wrote on this thread about how NaMo is trying to make this a presidential election. Back then, yes it did not seem credible. But it's increasingly evident that this is a reality in these elections - people are voting to put Modi in the PM seat, without much concern for their local BJP MP, unless he/she is especially undesirable to them.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 12 Apr 2014 00:03