Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 12 Apr 2014 22:34

Muppalla wrote:Yaduwanshi Dwaraka ke taraf dekh raha hai. Wah re waw. I heard at lot of places in Bihar, BJP crossed 50% threshold at seat level.

50% seats== 20/40 seats onlee. Anything less than 25 (30??) in Bihar is disappointing, IMHO.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 12 Apr 2014 22:35

I think that 50% is vote percentage, which means a sweep is in works.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 12 Apr 2014 22:36

devesh wrote:
merlin wrote:One twitterati says he won't be surprised if Sushma and Varuna join the Congress party and he could be right!

if this happens, it will be the beginning of the fading of the Nehru dynasty. beyond the emotional appeal of victim-hood that "sushma" and "Varun" betrayed "saffron", if you get the underlying message, it is simple: the regime of the Nehru dynasty as we know it is gone. a new era begins. and Varun will eventually have to be dealt with in a similar manner.

the controllers are grasping at straws if they decide to install SS and VG in INC.

Could it be that antonia-bianca are worried about imperium's foreign handlers might remove rahul to make way for next ConRegime and they want to offer varun gandhi in raul's place for the sacrifice?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 Apr 2014 22:53

Hari Seldon wrote:
Muppalla wrote:Yaduwanshi Dwaraka ke taraf dekh raha hai. Wah re waw. I heard at lot of places in Bihar, BJP crossed 50% threshold at seat level.
50% seats== 20/40 seats onlee. Anything less than 25 (30??) in Bihar is disappointing, IMHO.

I meant 50% votes at each seat level.

archan · Post by **archan** » 12 Apr 2014 22:58

Rajat Sharma is on two shows simultaneously. Other than India TV with Modi ji, he is on Kapil Sharma's comedy nights. SHQ watches that show without fail and it is a pretty good show. To my surprise, she is watching India TV instead!
NaMo namah!

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 12 Apr 2014 23:21

Prediction is 13 only for BJP in Karnataka

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Apr 2014 23:24

VikasRaina wrote:There is too much of bad blood between MG and SG for VG and MG to go back to Congress.
In fact SG would rather let Congress go to dogs than let it be proclaimed that shahzada was incompetent nincompoop. Anyways the dynasty is not going anywhere even if Cong is decimated in these election. There is always hope for next election.

It may not be SG who is making these overtures. It is congress-sycophants.

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 12 Apr 2014 23:32

I made like few dozen phone calls today to friends and relatives canvassing for Modiji. We need to stay ever vigil and do whatever we can to keep the momentum going!!

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Apr 2014 23:39

Sunno Kya Keh Raha Hai Satta Bazzar
Abki baar Modi Sarkar !

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 Apr 2014 23:44

How can Congress-sycophants even have a dream without getting it vetted by 'Madam'. There are no independent leaders left in Cong, only toll collectors.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 12 Apr 2014 23:50

I think Binaca/Rahul made connection to Varun to protect their loot from Modi. Varun did respond by praising PAPPU

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 12 Apr 2014 23:50

Did anyone here watch Rahul's interview ?

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 12 Apr 2014 23:58

anyone here on the ground in karnataka ? is there anything to be done to pull things back ?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 13 Apr 2014 00:07

I am at work not able to watch TV/You tube, only some use of mobile to post, and Modi ji ka interview missed ....

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Apr 2014 00:11

Looks like TN and all of India is all sewn up by Modi (maybe even Japan).

Rajinikanth helps Modi Score a Superhit in Lok Sabha Polls

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 13 Apr 2014 00:11

Question. There was a lot of euphoria during the India Shining 2004 campaign, and even some in 2009. Now posters are worried that there's going to be undue euphoria in 2014 also.

So - was there ever this level of seat-level micro-analysis in BR in either 2004 or 2009? This time it seems people are much more cautious to look for minute analysis of raw data and seat-by-seat trends than either in 2004 or 2009. Doesn't seem like undue euphoria to me - BR has matured into a much more hard-nosed practical site, no?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Apr 2014 00:13

2004 was chaos on this forum and those who spoke directly against the dienasty family were banned. In 2009, the analysis was poor and a lot of crap was coming from places like Politics Party. 2014 has been much better with good quality analysis by people like MR, Nagesh, Niran and so on.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 13 Apr 2014 00:16

sudarshan wrote:Question. There was a lot of euphoria during the India Shining 2004 campaign, and even some in 2009. Now posters are worried that there's going to be undue euphoria in 2014 also.

So - was there ever this level of seat-level micro-analysis in BR in either 2004 or 2009? This time it seems people are much more cautious to look for minute analysis of raw data and seat-by-seat trends than either in 2004 or 2009. Doesn't seem like undue euphoria to me - BR has matured into a much more hard-nosed practical site, no?

The short answer, really nobody knows.

But with such an experience in both 2009 parliament and 2012 up assembly elections, it is better to take whatever is being with a big bag of salt.

Reality is no one in this forum has done a half decent survey or study and most of the info is anecdotal.

PS: read the 2012 UP assembly thread and the results, you will see stars.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 13 Apr 2014 00:28

Karti Chidambaram nomination challenged by IT officer. http://www.elections.tn.gov.in/Counter/SKSrivastava.pdf
2009 catching up with PC family?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Apr 2014 00:59

5forty3 himself deconstructs the 2004 elections in his latest article. tl;dr : There was no such thing as a sure NDA victory that year, and in fact NDA started quite badly in the early polling phases despite what media claimed. Pay for his subscription to read the actual articles.

In 2009, it was never clear that NDA would win. The economy was still doing extremely well (5year avg of 8.4% being the highest ever in history) despite the global bust, and MMS remained a significantly more valid choice than a floundering Advani.

2014 is a different situation. The economy has been essentially stagnant for 3 years now. The government administration system has ground to a halt. No one talks about NREGA anymore. Everyone sees the Prime Minister as a sad emasculated puppet.

There's a substantial tide of voting population who demands development; the old canard of development lacking sufficient political backing is a Left narrative. It's the Left who fears development because it will cost them their marginalized votebanks. Of course people's lives will be affected by development, but the net positives to the nation warrant the short term pain if a government can provide them a better alternative future.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Apr 2014 01:03

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 13 Apr 2014 01:15

I did pay for 543 subscription, but am having a hard time navigating that site. Will give it a shot over the weekend.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 13 Apr 2014 01:49

People with access to Satta bazaar odds please post them here.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Apr 2014 01:54

Modi's satta bazaar odds were Rs.1.30 in Sept 2013. Was Rs.0.42 in first week of April, and Rs.0.38 this week.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 13 Apr 2014 02:25

I still scowl a little bit whenever I see members who claimed victory for NDA in earlier elections.

There was almost no fluctuation in number of votes that NDA and UPA got in 2 successive elections, but Congress somehow won more seats with same number of votes as it got in previous election.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 13 Apr 2014 02:46

RajeshA wrote:
Raja wrote:Bhai log... My blood pressure has been so high ever since I read the bullshit on Guardian and other British newspapers (by so called Indians)... Mind you, I am a reasonable person who tends to look at all sides of the argument but the blatant lies peddled on some of them is driving me crazy. How to bring the blood pressure down!?! If BJP does not win, I don't think I will be able to take it.
Raja ji,

You've come to the right place. BRF is the place where one arrives as confused and angry, and after therapy one ends up knowledgeable and angry. In the short term BRF does nothing to heal blood pressure problems, nor I think it helps in developing social skills because secular idealism becomes a victim, and one becomes a lot more paranoid and snappy. Then one tries to do some anger management in group therapy. Sometimes it may help but often anger becomes infectious. The BR admins try to contain the outpouring of some of the anger, lest we all go mad.

A few however learn to channelize anger constructively and try to get to grips with anger through cold analysis.

IMHO, one is angry because one had put faith in the "world" media as objective, fair and sympathetic to those who too believe in freedom and democracy, or because one expects from Western leaders that they remain true to their word that they are upholders of human morality. Anger dissipates when one sees the world as a civilizational war, and need and greed keeps the peace. When one has chosen a side in this civilizational war, then conviction replaces anger.

The West would side with Islam and China against India, because neither Islam nor Christianity really challenge West's soft power, its ideological framework, its sense of moral superiority.

Dharma, Āryatva and Bharat on the other hand can be destructive on Western ideological framework which places the West at the peak of the moral pyramid of world, especially as strengthening of India-centered narrative would mean the Western colonialists, slave-traders, racists, MNCs and the modern states would become demonized, basically become the bad guys in their own ideological framework. Not a pleasant outcome for them. As a former colony, as formerly oppressed, India has automatically a higher standing in the morality ladder and can make a better case for the oppressed.

What one sees in the Western press against Modi, and Hindutva is an expression of angst that the moment has come when Indians would start giving the West moral jhappads powered by both increased soft and hard power.

Even our imbecile Chacha Nehru got a bit uppity and started moralizing, and that too without a sound ideological framework nor hard power, but only on the basis of being a newly independent country. India was soon slapped by China to stay in our place.

This time it would be different! So as India rises, let the dogs bark!

That's right Raja ji.

Please this great post by Rudradev ji.
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 20#p924420

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 Apr 2014 02:46

jamwal wrote:I still scowl a little bit whenever I see members who claimed victory for NDA in earlier elections.

There was almost no fluctuation in number of votes that NDA and UPA got in 2 successive elections, but Congress somehow won more seats with same number of votes as it got in previous election.

The 'somehow' is because of vote share concentration. 'EVM magic' is a simplistic answer because people don't bother to do the hard work of counting votes by constituency and understanding how this works. Voteshare/constituency is what matters most. Until possibly in 2014, the BJP has never come close to winning the overall popular vote. Here's data:

In 1999, when BJP won 180 seats, it won 86.6 million votes (23.75% voteshare). INC won 103.1 million votes (28.3% voteshare), and only 114 seats, its lowest ever. That's right - you can have 25% more popular votes than your competitor and still return your worst ever performance.

In 2004, BJP won 86.4 million votes (22.16% voteshare) and 138 seats. Congress won 103.4 million votes (26.53%) and 145 seats. The BJP gained votes in new places, but diluted its voteshare concentration in others, losing seats, while the Congress did the opposite.

In 2009, BJP won 78.4 million votes (18.8%) and 116 seats, while INC won 119.1 m votes (28.55%) and 206 seats. Here the BJP further lost out due to fragmentation of votes of itself and regional parties to INC. In fact the BJP was not the biggest loser here - the 3rd and 4th fronts were, and the INC took a lot of votes and seats from them.

Having votes is not what matters. What matters is the concentration of the voteshare. The INC voteshare in 1999 and 2009 were almost identical, but in the first instance it performed its worst ever, and in the second, it's best since 1984.

This is the lesson that 5forty3 and even folks like muraliravi here keep stating. What matters is per-constituency voteshare. If you have the highest voteshare you WILL win the constituency due to first past the post. The turnout provides an idea of where the voteshare might lead, in battleground seats.

If one would like to know where things will go, please give up the EVM talk and look for ways to collect local polling data - that'll tell you the per-constituency voteshare. The BJP's entire goal in these elections has been to focus on buttressing voteshare in strong seats/regions (Hindi heartland), and alliances elsewhere, while generally ignoring or not giving much time where it really doesn't have a chance to sweep anything (e.g. Kerala). As an added bonus, they've been gaining additional voteshare in not-so-strong areas because people grasp momentum.

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 13 Apr 2014 03:00

nachiket wrote:
fanne wrote:One clue is that Modi thanked Odisha voters and went hammer tongs on Naveen Babu (meaning that he has little hope for post alignment, or maybe they are doing good).
There is no exit poll for Odisha.
Do you mean CSDS and the other agencies don't do an exit poll for Orissa? Why is that? Muraliravi obtained inside data for UP, Bihar, etc. He didn't get any for Orissa, so what you say must be true.

I would be weary of polls which show BJP running neck and neck with BJD . Just 2 /3 months back BJD swept localbodies polls (including western odisha ) and BJP was a very poor third [if BJD got 50 seat then BJP got 2 seats type of drubbing ].
Now people are talking about 5/6 seats out of 10 that went to polls on the 10th. I find that really hard to believe.

If this turns out to be true then it would have to be an out of the ordinary Modi wave (i.e. 15-20% swing in favor of BJP ) . This in a state where there is no communal polarization , very little anti incumbency and the BJP is weak organizationally with out any well known state level leaders.

If this in reality is the extent of the Modi wave, then i would expect BJP to get to 272 on it's own.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Apr 2014 03:09

Coming soon .. a tell all book by the former coal sec

Biswajeet Dash ‏@biswajeetdash 1h

@minhazmerchant After Baru, ex-coal secretary P C Parak’s tell all book to add fuel to fire http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 675372.cms … cc @bibekdebroy

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 13 Apr 2014 03:13

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 1h

Modi effect: 2,000-odd RSS shakhas sprout in 3 months http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/gene ... mesofindia …

"I believe in Hindutva," says Ravi. "The country needs reforms. Who other than Narendra Modi can make it happen? The youth needs something to look forward to. They also need to take up more responsibilities to change things and the shakha is the best place to learn how to do it."

Ravi speaks with a sense of purpose that only a new convert can have. He had never dabbled in politics before he joined ABVP, BJP's student wing, a few months ago. And there are thousands like him, he says, neo-converts who have breathed new life into RSS after Modi was named the BJP's PM candidate on September 13 last year.

Suddenly, the organization which was becoming moribund and seen to be out of tune with the times, is growing. In less than three months, more than 2,000 shakhas have sprouted across the country. By the end of 2013, there were 44,982 shakhas in India, of which 8,417 were in UP alone.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Apr 2014 03:18

^^ Interesting.. People need to learn about India,Hinduism,Spirituality,dharma based on Indian history.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 Apr 2014 04:00

Thanks Sanjay...
Quick Highlights -
70% Jats voted BJP, More yadavs voted BJP than Mulayam or Laloo!!
That is something insn't it.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 Apr 2014 04:28

Why US/Britain and idiotic media in these countries are suddenly on anti-Modi drive?

The West likes to deal with idiotic despots like Musharaff who can be bought easily and used like a condom. Whenever they needs, these vassals act at their master's behest.

In Sonia/MMS, west found a MAFIA that can be blackmailed and used in whatever way they want. They allow NGOs to receive all foreign money to do 24x7 anti-Hindu propaganda to help their masters convert and change demographics. The MAFIA imports seculars from Burma and B'Desh to change demographics. Every thing is going according to the plan of masters.

Modi is a big obstacles in their plan to destroy the fabric of the nation forever. Remember! Nancy Powell was sending notes to SD that Modi can't become PM until 3 months back.

Now suddenly panic hit the all the masters

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Apr 2014 04:51

fanne wrote:Thanks Sanjay...
Quick Highlights -
70% Jats voted BJP, More yadavs voted BJP than Mulayam or Laloo!!
That is something insn't it.

Mark this post. This will be the single reason for BJP touching 230+

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 13 Apr 2014 05:33

vivek.rao wrote:Why US/Britain and idiotic media in these countries are suddenly on anti-Modi drive?

The West likes to deal with idiotic despots like Musharaff who can be bought easily and used like a condom. Whenever they needs, these vassals act at their master's behest.

In Sonia/MMS, west found a MAFIA that can be blackmailed and used in whatever way they want. They allow NGOs to receive all foreign money to do 24x7 anti-Hindu propaganda to help their masters convert and change demographics. The MAFIA imports seculars from Burma and B'Desh to change demographics. Every thing is going according to the plan of masters.

Modi is a big obstacles in their plan to destroy the fabric of the nation forever. Remember! Nancy Powell was sending notes to SD that Modi can't become PM until 3 months back.

Now suddenly panic hit the all the masters

Let others keep barking. They don't understand India much less Modi. The change will be dynamic and may upset regional and Asia dynamics. It is a parallel to a Japan rising in the 1960s and 1970s. We have the chance to get there.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 13 Apr 2014 07:03

Sanjay wrote:anyone here on the ground in karnataka ? is there anything to be done to pull things back ?

Been campaigning in Karnataka for last two weeks. Concentrating on five seats-Bangalore North, Bangalore South, Bangalore Central, Chikballapur, now Mysore. There is a NaMo wave in urban areas, but not so much in rural areas. Of the five seats I have been campaigning in, only one seat sure for BJP-Bangalore North. The other four are toss ups, with Chikballapur veering towards unlikely because Kumaraswamy has queered the pitch for Bacche Gowda, who would have otherwise won, taking the Balija and Vokkaliga votes.

Bangalore North - sure for BJP.

Bangalore Central-Too many minorities, who are determined to stop NaMo at any cost (I have run into enough evangelists and Christian priests campaigning desperately for Congress. Looks like EJs are even more determined to stop NaMo than Muslims). BJP will win only if the voting percentage is very high.

Bangalore South-Nandan Nilekani is spending money like water. Entire slums in Vijayanagar, Govindrajnagar are being bought by Nilekani. Again, voter turnout will be vital. Also, AAP has a bit of traction in both Bangalore Central, South. Hard to quantify damage they can do, but their vote was always the fence sitter's vote.

Chikballapur-Presence of two heavyweights like Kumaraswamy, and Veerappa Moily has made life tough for Bacche Gowda. Plus point for Bacche Gowda is that both Narasimha Swamy (son of Jalappa) and Ravinarayana Reddy are campaigning hard for him, to tilt the Idiga and Reddy voters towards him. Big minus point for him is that his visibility is lower than that of his opponents. Floating vote may go to Kumaraswamy than towards Bacche Gowda. Also, Kumaraswamy might split the Vokkaliga vote, ruining BJP chances. Would be a shame. Bacche Gowda is a real decent guy, and I would pick him over other BJP candidates any day.

Mysore-The real humdinger. BJP wave is very strong in Coorg. But in Hunsur and Periyapattana in Mysore, Kurubas are still voting Siddaramaiah and A H Vishwanath. BJP historically weak in Periyapattana, now even Hunsur. I suspect Mysore city voting will determine final fate of the BJP. This is Siddaramaiah's constituency, poor are still with Siddaramaiah to an extent, and may be hard to wrest. Pratap Simha is giving the Congres a run for the money. Going to be toss up.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Apr 2014 07:34

^^Sad to see such a hard situ for lotus in KA. Historically, whoever KA backs has lost the national polls, seems like it'll be the stry this time too...

Meanwhile, what the satta bazaar has been saying about Dilli's 7 LS seats, seatwise...

Seems new delhi is the toughest seat (INC odds beat bjp's here) whereas I thought NE dilli would be the hardest nut to crack...

West dillis eems almost in the bag. Overall, satta bazaar seems to belie confidence that lotus will do some peaceful clean sweep of dilli types anyway...

more generally, satta bazar uvacha on national polls thus:

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 13 Apr 2014 07:41

Raja wrote:I made like few dozen phone calls today to friends and relatives canvassing for Modiji. We need to stay ever vigil and do whatever we can to keep the momentum going!!

Raja-saab - thank you very much! I am part of a call-for-Modi group called GIBV. We have got a few volunteers from this forum already. Would you be willing to join the effort? We have calling lists that you can use

Please email me at: (Mahatma's name - the one after Mohandas Karamchand) (underscore) (reverse of "htanipog") at Yahoo

Suraj: Got your PM. Thanks. Hope the above format is better

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 13 Apr 2014 07:47

^I'm very awkward on the phone, fear putting off people rather than getting them aboard... Maybe I can call them pretending to canvass for khangress, that way they can turn away from INC with a vengeance onlee...

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 Apr 2014 07:49

Can someone dig some authentic info on Pappy's arrest in Boston. Thx