Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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nachiket
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by nachiket »

SanjayC wrote:
nachiket wrote:So basically, there is no result that can actually disprove the CT since it can be perpetually modified to suit the result. Nice.
Can you please offer an explanation for the swing in Cong fortunes after EVMs were introduced?
That more people actually did vote for them in 2004. Actually even in 1999 the Congress got a larger percentage of the total votes than the BJP did. It just didn't translate into more seats because of the distribution. There were several factors in 2004. The India Shining campaign didn't resonate with the poorer sections who yet again fell for the Congress' dole based "Garibi Hatao"-style campaign (why not? they'vve fallen for it repeatedly for decades). And it was the strong performance by the commies and SP etc., which actually allowed the Congress to form the government. They only had what, 7-8 more seats than the BJP?

In 2009, the economy was going great guns (thanks to the continuing dividends from the NDA period and the global situation prior to the crash...but you can't expect common people to get that) and the BJP's campaign was being led by a senile old man, well past his prime. What did you think was going to happen?
A skeptic will remain a skeptic regardless of facts.
Uh no. That's what a conspiracy theorist does.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

nachiket wrote: In 2009, the economy was going great guns (thanks to the continuing dividends from the NDA period and the global situation prior to the crash...but you can't expect common people to get that) and the BJP's campaign was being led by a senile old man, well past his prime. What did you think was going to happen?
You haven't answered the question at all: What is the reason for opinion polls going wrong abruptly after 2004? Cong got 100 more seats than what the opinion polls predicted -- the same polls had got seats right in previous LS elections.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

SanjayC wrote: You haven't answered the question at all: What is the reason for opinion polls going wrong abruptly after 2004? Cong got 100 more seats than what the opinion polls predicted -- the same polls had got seats right in previous LS elections.
Because most surveys are based on telephone. Deep in rural areas, where there is no telephone, is where Congress support lies - among the poor and the underprivileged. So, most surveys will show a bias against the Congress and towards the BJP. In reality, usually, it is safe to assume that Congress has 2-3% more vote than what is shown on surveys, and BJP has 2-3% less.

And no - plenty of surveys have got things wrong before and after too. Also, the translation from vote percentages (which many surveys get right) to the actual seats is fraught, since it has plenty of problems. Even last time, surveys predicted 28% vote for the Congress correctly. They were just more conservative in translating the vote to seats. Which is why many of us on this board are taking very special care while interpreting survey results.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by subhamoy.das »

It amazes me the amount of shivers on this forum.
Look carefully at the data and what it is trying to tell about the mood of the nation.

1996: BJP+ 189-215 (187); Cong+ 142-170 (143)
1998: BJP+ 234-254 (234); Cong+ 149-165 (144)
1999: BJP+ 279-336 (297); Cong+ 132-162 (134)
2004: BJP+ 260-286 (185); Cong+ 154-180 (217)
2009: BJP+ 165-186 (157); Cong+ 201-235 (262)

Mood was on a upswing towards BJP from 1996 to 1999 and in 2004 the mood started to drop significantly ( a drop in mood of 50 seats as ABV became a old leader who can barely walk and Sonia was young and aggreesive at that time ) and continued its down ward journey till 2009 ( LKA was even worse and people wanted to give congi a left free platform ) and in 2014 it is on a upswing again ( NAMO effect and total economic hard ship on people ). So in 2014 BJP+ will be the largest formation for sure. But will it be headed by NAMO or by AJ may be debatable in the mind of some.

Please lay this EVM magic to rest. EVM is a computer and if hacked will surely give away as it will give every 2nd or 3rd or 4th vote to congress and the patter will be telling! Now donot come up a theory that artificial intelligence software with total simulation code to fool the humans has been remote uploaded into each EVM ( I doubt what kind of cpu and memory and what OS the EVM runs on ) and it is now acting like a human congi agent !
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SRoy »

^^

SanjayC,

Read the analysis from 5forty3. In 2004, NDA (foolishly, preponing the dates) went to polls when the countryside was under one of the most severe droughts of the last 100 years.

ABV was not campaigning. The vote pulling potential of the rest of the old guard is well known.

Way before 2009 polls, I predicted on BRF and India Forum (you can search the post) that Advani led negative campaigning will cost BJP dear.
My opinion might be of no consequence, but if other people also felt the same after witnessing Advani's antics then what to speak of non-BJP voters.
nachiket
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by nachiket »

SanjayC wrote: You haven't answered the question at all: What is the reason for opinion polls going wrong abruptly after 2004? Cong got 100 more seats than what the opinion polls predicted -- the same polls had got seats right in previous LS elections.
Surveys have been wrong before. They will be wrong again in the future. Exit polls are a much better indicator. Anyway, nageshks has given a more detailed explanation.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

is there exit poll data from 2004 and 2009 to compare with final tally?
AjitK
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by AjitK »

RajeshA wrote:J&K, Maharashtra, Haryana going to polls later this year. Expecting change of Govt.

UP Sarkar would simply be sent packing soon after Modi Sarkar comes to power. JD-U Sarkar in Bihar would probably fall a month after the elections. So too would HP Sarkar fall.

Whole of North India going to turn Saffron before the end of the year!
I don't think the BJP will dismiss the UP government. The Uttarakhand govt could fall after the Lok sabha elections. Satpal Maharaj could be the CM because Khanduri, Koshiyari and Pokhriyal will be MPs. We could have a BJP government in Uttarakhand and Delhi immediately after the polls. I think the Congress govt. in HP has a good majority.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by panduranghari »

Singha wrote:yesterday my son came and wanted to know who is narendra modi and if entire india is behind him. he had picked it up from his friends.
so i showed him some recording of the bangalore rally last week. also showed him some scans of the Bal Narendra comics.
My 3 yr old after listening to modi chants on aap ki adalat was chanting moji moji. Tsunamo onlee
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Victor »

If a nation of 1+ billion can be taken for a ride by EVM rigging without a murmur of complaint, that nation will get what it justly deserves. I feel that if BJP doesn't win by a landslide and/or if anything bad happens to Modi, India will explode in violence and the congi machine will be wiped out physically. I simply don't see aam junta meekly accepting anything else. Either way, a revolution of some kind is around the corner.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by archan »

Shaktimaan wrote:Yashwant Deshmukh of CVoter is currently doing an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on Reddit. If any Rakshaks want to ask him a question, please let me know.

http://www.reddit.com/r/indianews/comme ... of_cvoter/
Quoting from him there:
Good question. The factual answer is that Indians love to speak their minds. More so if they are living in Rural areas. The most slippery class is actually Middle Class; which speaks good sitting in their drawing rooms; but are highly unreliable as far as their turn out on polling day is concerned. The 2004 debacle of opinion polls was due to the drop of almost 18% in urban turnout.
So its often more about hauling them to press the damn button. This time hopefully there is more enthusiasm.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by archan »

People who have observed the past two elections at the booth level in person - how was the difference between now and then in terms of BJP booth management?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

All these explanations look like convenient after-thoughts to me. If BJP had won, it would have been easy to come up with explanations for that too. No other country allows EVMs in their elections, including the US. They rely on paper. Cong is dragging its feet on a paper trail attached to EVMs. Cong fortunes turn the moment EVMs are introduced and opinion polls begin to go wrong. People trying to show EVMs can be compromised are arrested. I think this is sufficient circumstantial evidence for me to be convinced that EVM magic is very much there and BJP will be foolish to let EVMs continue. Just like you can call me a conspiracy theorist, I can call you smug dudes blind to the obvious. Anyway, to each his own.

Are Electronic Voting Machines Reliable?
Author: Sameer Jalnapurkar
“Those who cast the votes decide nothing; those who count the votes decide everything”
- Joseph Stalin

This quote of Stalin may make you smile with its brazenness, and perhaps some may feel a little smug in the thought that they are living in a society that conducts itself in a more civilized manner. But Stalin, being a consummate practitioner of power politics, knew what he was talking about, and his maxim is very much relevant to us in India today.

The fact is that on election day, you may press a button on the Electronic Voting Machine (EVM) and see the flash of the adjacent light, but you really have no way to ascertain that your vote will go to the candidate of your choice, and that the election is being conducted fairly. There is evidence to suggest that the voters are indeed being duped. D.S. Kulkarni, a prominent real estate magnate and well-known citizen of Pune, had contested the 2009 Lok Sabha election. He has narrated:

“A total of 43 family members, including two of my bosom-friends, cast their votes at Sant Namdeo School. But the EVM showed that I received only 18 votes. And there are more such examples.”

Another well-known case is that of Dr. Subramanian Swamy, who, in 2009, in the Madurai Lok Sabha constituency, received, in many booths, fewer votes than the number of volunteers he had working for him for him!

It may surprise you to know that the software on the chip at the heart of the EVMs is installed at the premises of the foreign manufacturer, and that there is no way to verify the installed software on Indian soil. There is also no way to verify that malicious features have not been incorporated into the hardware. Although we will not, in this article, go into the technical details, interested readers are invited to read this report, which describes the vulnerabilities and shows how the safeguards being followed by are wholly inadequate.

Those who have been following the EVM issue may wonder whether this matter was not settled by the recent Supreme Court judgment in the case Dr. Subramanian Swamy vs. Election Commission of India (ECI), in which Dr. Swamy had asked for the “paper trail” feature to be incorporated into EVMs. (EVMs with the paper trail facility print a slip for each vote, which is verified by the voter. These slips are collected in a drop box, like traditional paper ballots. The electronic tally can be verified by counting these slips.) There were certainly some positive headlines in the media at the time of that judgment, for example this report from Zee news:

SC wants EVM paper trail for next general election
Tuesday, October 08, 2013, 13:10

New Delhi: The Supreme Court on Tuesday directed the Election Commission to introduce paper trail in electronic voting machines (EVMs).

The court directed the EC to introduce paper trail in a phased manner so that the same could be in place for the next General Elections.

Many people may have been lulled into complacency by such reports. But if you look at the fine print of the judgment, the picture is different. The Supreme Court has indeed declared that the paper trail facility is “indispensable for free and fair elections”, and that voters can have no faith in EVMs without it. At the same time, the SC has given the ECI the liberty to introduce the paper trail gradually, in phases, while remaining silent about how elections should be conducted in the absence of the paper trail facility. There is absolutely no commitment from the ECI about implementation of the paper trail for the 2014 general election. In fact, the judgment notes that the ECI had placed orders for only 450 paper trail units, and was hoping to get sanction from the Government of India to order another 20,000 units, as against a requirement of at least 1 million units.

Soon after the Supreme Court has given its judgment, the paper trail facility was used on a small scale in the Mizoram assembly elections, and a large number of those units suffered failures. Clearly, the ECI will go through a prolonged process of getting the design of the paper trail units modified, undertaking further trials, using them on small scale, suffering further failures, scaling up production, and so on. It has now been almost four years since the ECI, under pressure from political parties, formed its ‘Expert Committee’ for introduction of the paper trail. At this rate, it is very conceivable that not only the 2014 general election, but also the 2019 general election will largely be conducted with the same old opaque, paper-less EVMs.

Dr. Swamy is very much aware of the limitations of the judgment. On the day of the judgment, he had tweeted –

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 Oct 8
In case ECI does not use the new VVPAT EVM in some constituencies, I urge 64 PTs of that constituency to file nominations as Independents.

Dr. Swamy’s suggestion seeks to exploit the loophole that the EVMs are designed to cater to at most 64 candidates. This has been done before, in the by-election held in Andhra Pradesh in July 2010. The Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) was able to force the ECI to use paper ballots in several constituencies by fielding large numbers of dummy candidates. However, that is a less than satisfactory solution. Moreover, I have heard that the ECI is modifying the design of the EVMs so as to handle up to 512 candidates, which would make Dr. Swamy’s suggestion prohibitively expensive and impractical.

The legal and constitutional argument against paper-less EVMs is very strong. The notion of transparency is inherent in democracy. If a regime-appointed Election Commission demands that voters rely on blind faith, and if elections cannot be seen to be fair, then democracy is reduced to a farce, and Stalin’s blunt assertion holds true. An important legal precedent was set by the German Constitutional Court in 2009, which in a landmark judgment, effectively banned the use of paper-less EVMs, saying –

“In a republic, elections are a matter for the entire people and a joint concern of all citizens. Consequently, the monitoring of the election procedure must also be a matter for and a task of the citizen. Each citizen must be able to comprehend and verify the central steps in the elections reliably and without any special prior technical knowledge.”

This logic is undisputable. Further, the German Constitutional Court said --

“The principle of the public nature of elections, which results from the fundamental decisions of constitutional law in favour of democracy … prescribes that all essential steps of an election are subject to the possibility of public scrutiny …

The use of voting machines which electronically record the voters’ votes … only meets the constitutional requirements if the essential steps of the voting and of the ascertainment of the result can be examined reliably and without any specialist knowledge of the subject. … The voters themselves must be able to understand without detailed knowledge of computer technology whether their votes cast are recorded in an unadulterated manner as the basis of vote counting …”

The point is that mere assurances from high officials are not sufficient. The voters should be able to see for themselves that the elections are being conducted fairly. This position has, in spirit, been endorsed by the Supreme Court of India too, by its decision that a paper trail is “indispensible for free and fair elections”.

Although it is true that there is a degree of risk no matter what method is used for voting, the German Constitutional Court had pointed out an important difference between EVMs and paper ballots: With traditional paper ballots, any fraud (such as ballot box stuffing) is easily noticeable and is localized. Whereas, with electronic voting, fraud is extremely hard to detect and can have widespread consequences.

So, what is needed is that the Supreme Court plug the gap, by declaring that even if the Election Commission is unable, for any reason, to provide the paper trail facility with EVMs, it remains constitutionally obliged to conduct free and fair elections. This is, as already decided by the Supreme Court, impossible with paper-less EVMs. The only other constitutionally valid option, that provides the transparency that is essential for democracy, is to use traditional paper ballots. In fact, it can be said that continued use of paper-less EVMs by the ECI amounts to a contemptuous disregard of the Supreme Court’s finding on the indispensability of a paper trail.

It would perhaps have been best for Dr. Swamy to have immediately approached the Supreme Court again, asking it to urgently plug the above-mentioned gap, especially in view of the impending general election of 2014. However, he has not felt it appropriate to do this so far.

In this situation, a few concerned citizens got together (under the name Technology Transparency Foundation) and filed a Writ Petition in the Supreme Court asking it to direct the Election Commission to use paper ballots in the absence of EVMs with the paper trail facility. Unfortunately, this Writ Petition was dismissed by the Supreme Court at the first hearing, on the ground that the earlier decision in Swamy vs. ECI “covers and takes care of all aspects”. This is most certainly not the case. Now, a review petition has been filed, which is available online here.

The revelations by American whistleblower Edward Snowden should forcefully remind us that many nations are engaged in intense cyber-warfare, on a routine basis. EVMs are a much more attractive target than defense or communications systems. If a nation is so lax as to allow its election machinery to depend on imported computer systems, with no effective checks in place, then foreign interests can hardly be blamed if they seek to exploit that opportunity, possibly in collaboration with their favorite domestic actors.

Taking a step back from the immediate problem of non-transparent voting, we see an eco-system of corrosive forces afflicting the nation. Masses being manipulated through corrupt media companies. Interventions in our political system by activists incubated through foreign funding. A compromised political leadership, holding ill-gotten assets abroad, and thus vulnerable to blackmail. An Election Commission appointed by the same corrupt leadership. While loot continues on a stupendous scale, the poor live in utter wretchedness. The fact that a former police officer, against whom there are credible allegations of sabotaging India’s cryogenic rocket engine program at the behest of foreign interests, continues to walk around free, suggests that the rot is so deep that the state is unable to defend itself against treason. In these circumstances, can we really call ourselves an independent nation? Or are we again a colony, this time with brown-skinned viceroys? These are not idle questions. In today’s age, neo-colonialism functions somewhat more subtly than the colonialism of past centuries. (Former KGB agent Yuri Bezmenov has many interesting points to make in this 81 minute video.)

Given what is publicly known about international cyber-warfare, it would be gravely negligent to tolerate the use of EVMs with foreign installed software, in which neither the software nor hardware are verifiable. Under normal circumstances, it would be the duty of the opposition to raise the issue of verifiable voting. In the immediate aftermath of the 2009 election, LK Advani did raise the issue, but he has been silent thereafter. Dr. Swamy took the issue up legally, but the matter has so far not been taken it to its logical conclusion. BJP Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi has, as far as I know, not mentioned the issue publicly even once, even though he has been briefed about it by senior journalist Madhav Nalapat. Modi certainly has the capacity to raise the issue forcefully. Imagine what the effect would be if Modi were to denounce paper-less EVMs in his huge rallies. Or if Modi were to ask people to gather in large numbers and demonstrate outside the Election Commission. There is no way the EC would be able to resist that kind of popular pressure. And there is no way that anybody would be able to criticize Modi for doing that, because the Supreme Court itself has declared that free and fair elections are not possible with paper-less EVMs. It must also be said that if Narendra Modi fails to take up this issue, then he will have to bear some of the blame for the lack of verifiable voting in India, and any consequent mis-governance and human misery.

To an extent the continuation of non-transparent voting in India is also a failure of society as a whole. There certainly are many who are concerned, but many more are not bothered. Some argue that the EVMs must be all right, since the BJP also manages to win time to time. What explains this attitude? Partly, it could be the influence of the media, which never questions the credibility of EVMs. People don’t like to be taken out of their mental comfort zones. It could also be that after centuries of colonization, there has been a decline in the level of strategic thinking in society. Perhaps we were far more advanced in the days of Chanakya than we are today. Needless to say, we cannot escape from the timeless laws of nature. The fittest will survive, the unfit will perish and eternal vigilance will always be the price of liberty.

To conclude, let us not to be complacent about our democracy and independence. In fact, as per the Supreme Court itself, we are not a democracy, if democracy means free and fair elections. We should also question how independent we really are. Arguably, we may be less free than we were before 1947, because, in that era, the slavery was at least obvious. Today, too many of the middle-class, being drugged by mass-media indoctrination, do not identify and focus on crucial issues. “None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free”, as the German philosopher Goethe observed.

The effort for transparent voting can be taken forward through several avenues – litigation, pressuring political parties to take a clear and active stand, and public outreach through the traditional and social media. As was mentioned earlier, there is a pending review petition. It is important for all those who care about this issue to get together and pool their efforts. Those who wish to join the effort, or just stay in touch, are welcome to register at http://tiny.cc/no2evms . You can also help by sharing the link to this article via email and social media. Let there be no doubt that if we want our nation to awake into Tagore’s “heaven of freedom” where “the mind is without fear and the head is held high”, then the problem of verifiable voting is something we will have to sort out first.See: ("Video describing some demonstrated attacks on a genuine Indian EVM")
AjitK
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by AjitK »

archan wrote:
Shaktimaan wrote:Yashwant Deshmukh of CVoter is currently doing an Ask Me Anything (AMA) on Reddit. If any Rakshaks want to ask him a question, please let me know.

http://www.reddit.com/r/indianews/comme ... of_cvoter/
Quoting from him there:
Good question. The factual answer is that Indians love to speak their minds. More so if they are living in Rural areas. The most slippery class is actually Middle Class; which speaks good sitting in their drawing rooms; but are highly unreliable as far as their turn out on polling day is concerned. The 2004 debacle of opinion polls was due to the drop of almost 18% in urban turnout.
So its often more about hauling them to press the damn button. This time hopefully there is more enthusiasm.
Another factor is registering new voters. The urban middle-class doesn't even bother to register. The voter registration drive this time has been taken up by Sangh Parivar and affiliates. Art of Living volunteers were collecting registration forms from residential buildings and submitting them at the local office. In my area alone they had ensured registration of around 5000 voters.
SRoy
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SRoy »

EVM magic works where there are many parties in a fight or even in a two party where the margin of votes is very small.

So, yes EVM magic is possible to an extent. But, it cannot be transform all votes in a seat/constituency and it cannot work in all constituencies.

Further, magic may or may not involve EVM, but does happen with many other ways. Voter rolls for example, which I have seen personally.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by johneeG »

All these explanations look like convenient after-thoughts to me. If BJP had won, it would have been easy to come up with explanations for that too.
Exactly. One can create a theory to justify anything. Anyway, kongis themselves seem to have raised questions on evm, and supreme court seems to have said that there needs to be a paper trail. It is well-accepted that evms are not tamper-proof. So, why continue with paper-less evm? The fact of the matter is that as a voter, I don't know what is happening inside the evm and there is no way to verify whether the vote has actually gone to the party that I pressed the button for. The only way that the voter can satisfy himself about the transparency is by providing a paper-trail or paper-ballot.

----
I think a cleverer plan is to let the NaMo win and then the opponents themselves can raise questions on the elections. Already, some aaplets and kongis seem to be raising the questions. This seems like a more clever plan because the TsuNaMo is very evident to everyone and it would be too much if the results don't coincide with that.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

Victor wrote:If a nation of 1+ billion can be taken for a ride by EVM rigging without a murmur of complaint, that nation will get what it justly deserves. I feel that if BJP doesn't win by a landslide and/or if anything bad happens to Modi, India will explode in violence and the congi machine will be wiped out physically. I simply don't see aam junta meekly accepting anything else. Either way, a revolution of some kind is around the corner.
Will you personally be on the roads leading the charge?

Do not worry, this is not an IED. I expect no one answers this rhetorical question.

But I hope everyone considers to completely understand the wish one is making. The cadres are very cautiously with BJP this time, although enthusiastically. They have been used once in 1992 and that memory is still fresh. If peaceful provocation occurs, it will be responded in kind by janta, that I am assured off. What you are asking requires a different breed of society. Hindus (urban middle class ones) are not that breed. at least not yet. may be next generation or 12 years hence.
Last edited by Atri on 14 Apr 2014 14:25, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

very interesting that the maker of the machine itself(netherlands) have stopped use evm

Ireland[edit]
Further information: Electronic voting in Ireland
Ireland bought voting machines from the Dutch company Nedap for about €40 million. The machines were used on a 'pilot' basis in 3 constituencies for the 2002 Irish general election and a referendum on the Treaty of Nice. Following a public report by the Commission on Electronic Voting, then Minister for the Environment and Local Government, Martin Cullen again delayed the use of the machines [34]
On 23 April 2009, the Minister for the Environment John Gormley announced that the electronic voting system was to be scrapped by an as yet undetermined method, due to cost and the public's dissatisfaction with the current system.[35]
On 6 October 2010, the Taoiseach Brian Cowen said that the 7,000 machines would not be used for voting and would be disposed of.[36] As of October 2010, the total cost of the electronic voting project has reached €54.6 million, including €3 million spent on storing the machines over the previous five years.[36]

Netherlands[edit]
From the late nineties until 2007, voting machines were used extensively during elections. Most areas in the Netherlands used electronic voting in polling places. After security problems with the machines were widely publicized, they were banned in 2007.
The most widely used voting machines were produced by the company Nedap.[40] In the parliamentary elections of 2006, 21,000 persons used the Rijnland Internet Election System to cast their vote.
On 5. October 2006 the group "Wij vertrouwen stemcomputers niet" ("We do not trust voting machines") demonstrated on Dutch television how the Nedap ES3B machines could be manipulated in 5 minutes. The exchange of the software would not be recognisable by voters or election officials.


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I think no country seriously using EVM is doing so without a paper trail. most seem to be using it just as a means of optical scanning to quickly tabulate paper marked ballots than a vote count storage system.

only exception is brazil where again the votes are not stored but transmitted by satellite link somewhere http://www.intelfreepress.com/news/braz ... ctions/195

brazil doesnt have the congis though.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

archan wrote:People who have observed the past two elections at the booth level in person - how was the difference between now and then in terms of BJP booth management?
I've worked in 1999 and 2004. the booth management is much better this time. So is the cadre-coordination and enthusiasm level. I have repeatedly predicted around AT LEAST 227-240 seats for BJP alone. I do not bother with allies. I cannot vouch for EVM machine magic, but from what meager understanding i have, even the EVM swing cannot be more than 5%. The person "fixing" the EVM cannot afford to make it swing more than 5% since it becomes too obvious. Now given the voting upsurges, if BJP has 6-8% lead over their nearest rival in every booth (or most of the booths), i expect EVM magic to be inconsequential. But the voting percentages MUST be in high-60s and 70s at least. Anything above 65% vote, I am relatively assured.

What bothers me is precisely this. We got the reservation tables of Indian railways. About estimated 10 lakh people from Mumbai are travelling outside by end of april before 24th (when Mumbai votes). For western MH, the figure is around 3-5 lakhs (partially because except Pune, the rest of people from western MH won't travel far away, they can be around to vote).

This gives me shivers. Summer vacation is typical middle class thing and BJP is estimated to lose at least 3-4 lakh votes due to this vacationing of middle class. it is giving us nightmares, but everyone knows how difficult it is to get railway reservations. People are sympathetic but most of them politely refuse to accommodate their plans, because the trip was planed way ahead (in dec-jan).
Last edited by Atri on 14 Apr 2014 14:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

All options open, except Congress, says Jagan Mohan Reddy
Edited by Abhinav Bhatt | Updated: April 14, 2014 10:27 IST

Hyderabad: Jagan Mohan Reddy, whose YSR Congress is contesting its first Lok Sabha elections, has made clear that he is open to doing business with anyone but his former party the Congress.

"I have kept all my options open except the Congress," said the 41-year-old Mr Reddy, not ruling out support to a BJP-led National Democratic Alliance or NDA government at the Centre, to "protect the interests of Seemandhra following bifurcation of the state."

Mr Reddy predicted that his party would sweep Seemandhra, the residuary regions of Andhra Pradesh after the state of Telangana is carved out. A recent NDTV opinion poll showed that while Mr Reddy could bag a not insignificant 10 of the 25 seats in Seemandhra, his prospects have been somewhat hit by the partnership that Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party or TDP has entered into with the BJP.

The TDP-BJP, the NDTV opinion poll shows, could get 14 of those seats.

Andhra Pradesh also votes for what will be two new assemblies by June 2 this year. Mr Reddy released his party's manifesto last evening, promising to build a capital city "better than Hyderabad" for Seemandhra, which has bitterly opposed bifurcation not least because it will eventually lose the Andhra Pradesh capital to the new Telangana state. The people of Seemandhra feel their interests have been betrayed because they will also lose a hefty share of water, power and revenue.

Mr Reddy promised, "We will build a capital city that is better than
Hyderabad...It will be a model city. The advantage for us is that we are starting from the scratch."

Jagan Reddy is the son of YSR Reddy, who as chief minister of Andhra Pradesh had won the Congress an emphatic victory in both the Lok Sabha elections and the Assembly polls held in 2009.

In September that year YSR Reddy died in a helicopter crash. Jagan Reddy rebelled against the Congress for not seeing in him his father's natural successor and quit the party to launch his own.
nachiket
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by nachiket »

johneeG wrote:
All these explanations look like convenient after-thoughts to me. If BJP had won, it would have been easy to come up with explanations for that too.
Exactly. One can create a theory to justify anything.
Isn't that what you and SanjayC are doing here? If the Congress wins, it is EVM magic. If the BJP wins, they are letting it win as part of some plan. No matter what happens, you can make the EVM magic theory fit by suitably modifying it.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by negi »

Kya mazaak hai in a country where PM breaks his oath and divulges matters of national secuirty and policy making to a person who does not even hold a berth in cabinet, we are arguing whether a rather simple electronic gadget like EVM can be hacked or tampered with. :shock:


Read this

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 505912.ece

Chidu won with just 3k+ votes , how difficult is it to hack into just 2 of hundreds of EVMs to make a difference ? Usual number of voters per booth is 1500 and here candidate won by just 3k votes.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SRoy »

negi wrote:Kya mazaak hai in a country where PM breaks his oath and divulges matters of national secuirty and policy making to a person who does not even hold a berth in cabinet, we are arguing whether a rather simple electronic gadget like EVM can be hacked or tampered with. :shock:


Read this

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 505912.ece

Chidu won with just 3k+ votes , how difficult is it to hack into just 2 of hundreds of EVMs to make a difference ? Usual number of voters per booth is 1500 and here candidate won by just 3k votes.
Exactly EVM manipulation is very easy if margins are so slender. Nobody will notice.
But will get caught if party workers are monitoring the booth (and hence know the voting trends) and trends indicate a sweep towards one party.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by merlin »

Atri wrote: cannot vouch for EVM machine magic, but from what meager understanding i have, even the EVM swing cannot be more than 5%. The person "fixing" the EVM cannot afford to make it swing more than 5% since it becomes too obvious.
How is it obvious?

BTW, I kind of agree with the dhoti shivers based on train bookings. The middle class will be the death of all of us.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by nachiket »

negi wrote:Kya mazaak hai in a country where PM breaks his oath and divulges matters of national secuirty and policy making to a person who does not even hold a berth in cabinet, we are arguing whether a rather simple electronic gadget like EVM can be hacked or tampered with. :shock:
No, that isn't exactly what we are arguing about. Anything can be done. That doesn't mean it was done, especially if there are better explanations for the outcome.
Read this

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/a ... 505912.ece

Chidu won with just 3k+ votes , how difficult is it to hack into just 2 of hundreds of EVMs to make a difference ? Usual number of voters per booth is 1500 and here candidate won by just 3k votes.
You describe the situation in one seat where the margin is low and then extrapolate to the entire country? How many EVMs in all would need to be physically accessed and hacked (not a trivial process), without anyone finding out to swing the election across the country?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

merlin wrote:
Atri wrote: cannot vouch for EVM machine magic, but from what meager understanding i have, even the EVM swing cannot be more than 5%. The person "fixing" the EVM cannot afford to make it swing more than 5% since it becomes too obvious.
How is it obvious?
As SRoy ji said earlier - booth manned by 4-5 dedicated sangh cadre gives the idea of how the voting pattern was. the data is collated and database is created to be matched with actual results. If the results clash with the data of cadres manning the booths, it becomes fairly obvious. Furthermore, 5% is a massive swing, when converted to real numbers (those mane real people who are very angry). more than 5% of voters discontent with the election result can be injurious to rep's health. EVM magic is matter of stealth, not daylight robbery. fixing EVMs to swing more than 5% is akin to daytime robbery in middle of city without any muscle power to tackle angry civilians. the plausible deniability which 2-3% swing offers reduces exponentially after 5% fix.
Last edited by Atri on 14 Apr 2014 15:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Chandragupta »

merlin wrote:
Atri wrote: cannot vouch for EVM machine magic, but from what meager understanding i have, even the EVM swing cannot be more than 5%. The person "fixing" the EVM cannot afford to make it swing more than 5% since it becomes too obvious.
How is it obvious?

BTW, I kind of agree with the dhoti shivers based on train bookings. The middle class will be the death of all of us.
Train bookings?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SRoy »

can anyone explain the middle class dhoti shivering part due to train bookings?
in summers the working population either go to their native places or working/local go on vacation to some tourist destination.
the former may or may not have their names in voting lists in places where they work and are the latter a big enough numbers to impact BJP only?

and didn't the same phenomenon affect 2004 and 2009?
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by member_20317 »

In the non-EVM era, Congress itself had 'allowed' other riff-raff to form governments when they had I believe like 140 197 seats and their B-Teams had another 180+. Only to fell these governments as it suited the Congress and its handlers.

Latest in the series the AAP drama, we have already seen in Delhi. A drama born out of a betrayal of a national urge for a cleaner system.

So the Congress wins == EVM and BJP wins == allowance by RNIs is not without precedence. Congress is a past master at false flags. It was born of one such operation. Why would the Congress be any more venerating towards EVM. Congress ke baap ka kya jata hai agar thodi votes ghuma di jayen.

But let me just get in edgewise. What if the EVMs are rotated, in different constituencies - Say from north east where there is no BJP to say Delhi NCR and from NCR to Gujarat and from Gujarat to Karnataka and from Karnataka to say Kerala. Point is EVM is not anti-BJP only the humans are. So once in power put in a law saying these have to be rotated with the rotation schedule to be finalized only say 2 weeks before the poll. While at it bring in a proper regulation for the ECI to follow aimed at ensuring that symbols on the EVM do not rub off, the privacy is assured, the polling agents get to escort the ECI logistics chain from the stage of rotation schedule till the time of counting. Make the ECI honchos sweat a little. Bahut hua Navin Chawla types.


Added later :
Year Seats
1989 197 - This time Congress allowed riff-raff only to bounce back in 1991 (no grudge here, but shows the strategy)
1999 114 - here ABV stole the march
Last edited by member_20317 on 14 Apr 2014 15:37, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SanjayC »

Atri wrote:EVM magic is matter of stealth, not daylight robbery. fixing EVMs to swing more than 5% is akin to daytime robbery in middle of city without any muscle power to tackle angry civilians. the plausible deniability which 2-3% swing offers reduces exponentially after 5% fix.
It can very well be daylight robbery, with no one any wiser. In 2004, Cong got 100 more seats than predicted by opinion polls. This was surely daylight robbery. Strangely, in Uttarakhand, it won all five seats. A month later, in bypolls, it came distant second in the same constituencies.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Atri »

SRoy wrote:can anyone explain the middle class dhoti shivering part due to train bookings?
in summers the working population either go to their native places or working/local go on vacation to some tourist destination.
the former may or may not have their names in voting lists in places where they work and are the latter a big enough numbers to impact BJP only?

and didn't the same phenomenon affect 2004 and 2009?
Huge tsuNAMO in urban middle class of western India.

in typical family of four, 50% are voters - 5 lakhs.
out of those 5 lakhs, given the tsunamo, 60% might be voting for BJP - 3 lakhs.

Now if these 3 lakhs are potential votes lost. What is not done is train bookings post 5 o'clock (evening trains). most of the outgoing trains from Mumbai are in afternoon and evening. not all of them leaving on 24th. this is data of people travelling out of mumbai 15th april to 25th april.

the larger point is more important than the numbers. summer vacations are planned way ahead due to difficulty in getting train reservations. once planned, people are fiercely protective of their holidays.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Shanmukh »

SanjayC wrote: It can very well be daylight robbery, with no one any wiser. In 2004, Cong got 100 more seats than predicted by opinion polls. This was surely daylight robbery. Strangely, in Uttarakhand, it won all five seats. A month later, in bypolls, it came distant second in the same constituencies.
I can't tell you about the 2009 polls since I was not around, but I can tell you about 2004. 2004 loss was due to karyakarta sabotage, particularly in UP and Bihar. People wanted ABV out, since he had betrayed the Hindutva agenda, and the Sangh cadres did not want him to win again. And while constructing CTs, please get at least a few facts right. Congress won 145 seats in 2004, to BJP's 138. Can you please link me the opinion poll that gave Congress only 45 seats?

No, daylight robbery gets caught. People manning booths know the people of their locality, and their voting preferences. I know, for instance, how many people in my area are hardcore BJP voters, and I will make sure they all vote. I also know the marginals, and in this election, I will try to get them vote as well, since they are most likely to vote BJP. After the election, I will submit my lists to BJP candidate's representatives so we know how many votes we are likely to get. If there is a wide disparity between my lists and the actual results, we will know there has been a problem. And if the problem repeats over lakhs of booths all over the country, do you think that the BJP keep quiet? Or is there another CT whereby all BJP candidates all over the country are compromised and wish to lose onlee?

Finally, I guess, since wise men on the board have already determined that everything happens only by the will of the goras, we BJP folk should give up trying to convince voters and getting them to the booth and perform daily namaz towards Yumreeka, so that the goras will take pity on us pathetic heathens, and let us win once?
Last edited by Shanmukh on 14 Apr 2014 15:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by archan »

merlin wrote:
Atri wrote: cannot vouch for EVM machine magic, but from what meager understanding i have, even the EVM swing cannot be more than 5%. The person "fixing" the EVM cannot afford to make it swing more than 5% since it becomes too obvious.
How is it obvious?

BTW, I kind of agree with the dhoti shivers based on train bookings. The middle class will be the death of all of us.
That will never change, unfortunately. So the easier option is to try and move the elections to a non-summer time frame, while making sure it does not coincide with any major festival.

[dream]Another option which I hope to live to see is that every citizen can vote from any polling booth in the country based on their single ID which is irrefutable and the moment they vote, the vote is transmitted to a central server. The server can be monitored by independent teams and can have volunteers from all major parties. [/dream]
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by SRoy »

unfortunately non-summer time frame is not feasible either.

summer (Apr-June)->monsoons(Jul Sept)->festivals(Oct-Jan)->school exams(Feb-Mar/Apr)?

it is the summer breaks that ensures max participation

PS: Anyway major schools are still open in all of April. Damage will be minimal in May.
Last edited by SRoy on 14 Apr 2014 15:53, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by merlin »

Yes, anyone voting from anywhere in the country but for the candidate in their constituency would make sure that voting is convenient and middle class has no excuse. But that's in the future.

For now at least paper trail should have been mandatory across all the EVMs not just a few.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Patni »

ravi_g wrote:In the non-EVM era, Congress itself had 'allowed' other riff-raff to form governments when they had I believe like 140 seats and their B-Teams had another 180+. Only to fell these governments as it suited the Congress and its handlers.

Latest in the series the AAP drama, we have already seen in Delhi. A drama born out of a betrayal of a national urge for a cleaner system.

So the Congress wins == EVM and BJP wins == allowance by RNIs is not without precedence. Congress is a past master at false flags. It was born of one such operation. Why would the Congress be any more venerating towards EVM. Congress ke baap ka kya jata hai agar thodi votes ghuma di jayen.

But let me just get in edgewise. What if the EVMs are rotated, in different constituencies - Say from north east where there is no BJP to say Delhi NCR and from NCR to Gujarat and from Gujarat to Karnataka and from Karnataka to say Kerala. Point is EVM is not anti-BJP only the humans are. So once in power put in a law saying these have to be rotated with the rotation schedule to be finalized only say 2 weeks before the poll. While at it bring in a proper regulation for the ECI to follow aimed at ensuring that symbols on the EVM do not rub off, the privacy is assured, the polling agents get to escort the ECI logistics chain from the stage of rotation schedule till the time of counting. Make the ECI honchos sweat a little. Bahut hua Navin Chawla types.

Just to say the EVM machine by itself does not have any permanent symbols embossed. Look at the presentation on EVM linked in election celebration thread. The evm vote button to candidate pairing is based on printed paper that is inserted in to EVM and then sealed with a thread.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by Singha »

Kudos to SanjayC for keeping this entire thread in dhoti shivering mode since morning. 8)
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by chaanakya »

Patni wrote:
Just to say the EVM machine by itself does not have any permanent symbols embossed. Look at the presentation on EVM linked in election celebration thread. The evm vote button to candidate pairing is based on printed paper that is inserted in to EVM and then sealed with a thread.
And that Pairing is done in front of Agents of Political parties / Candidates for each and every EVM used in Poll and a Mock poll is conducted and tally is ascertained for each symbols as correct before being sealed.
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by jagga »

Yesterday and today, Vaisakhi was/is being celebrated all over the world by Punjabis. This is the day when foundation of Khalsa Panth was laid down by Guru Gobind Singh Ji. There is another sad event attached to this day , Jalianwala Bagh Massacre.
Udham Singh, the true lion, revenged the killings by assassinating Michael O'Dwyer in London. When all over India this incident ignited great satisfaction among Indian masses, Gandhi and Nehru were mourning the death of Dwyer. Gandhi commented "The accused is intoxicated with thought of bravery"
In about 2 weeks time we have polling in Punjab, I hope people will remember this event before "Button Daboa" and help india becoming "Congress Mukt".
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Post by fanne »

I would love to discount the EVM magic, and myself have successfully presented arguments against it, something inside doesn't feel right. 2009 results were too 'perfect' to be true - AIDMK and DMK getting almost equal seats, so did SP and BSP (knowing fully well one will help if the other tries to be smart). If EVM magic is true, one of the sotradhar of that would be dekho main ye. Their enemy communist defeated. Something does not add up. Majority of marginal seats going Con way (similarly marginal seats going AAP way, instead of BJP way in Delhi). Well that's why pay 543 to know what is going on.
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