BRF GJP Trial Poll-1: How many seats will NDA win?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Apr 2014 18:58

Chanakya ji

Thanks for that info.

Looks like everytime the prime opposition had ~150 seats, it lead to unstable govt. So BJP getting 200+ seats is not sufficient! Congress has to fall below 120 to have a stable govt in 2014.

Looks like we are looking at this equilibrium this time...

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 12 Apr 2014 19:51

Congress after losing AP will be hard pressed to be at 100. RamaY sir, Booth level management at UP is at remarkable level. I am in touch with people whose close relatives are contesting and they say mobilisation is solid like Iron. Remember our discussions?

Just now India Today and ceisro opinion poll gives BJP 43%.

PAPPU GIVING INTERVIEW AT 9 O CLOCK AT HEADLINES TODAY

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 Apr 2014 21:55

^ Ofcourse sir! How is your health now?

Next visit we should meet in Modi-Rajya, inshallah!

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 13 Apr 2014 00:02

Guys i still think BJP will get 160-180 with EVM magic in place denying them atleast 50 seats by 2000-5000 margin

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Apr 2014 04:59

Below 115, the nuisance factor of CongIs is zero. Any party with >=180 seats while CongIs at <=115., means CongIs not in direct rule.

ONLY FOR BJP

1) Less than 200 15
2) Between 200-220, 30
3) Between 221-240, 30
4) Between 241-260, 25
5) Between 261-280, 0
6) between 281-300 0
7) or greater 300 0

Put it this way, 100% confidence that BJP on its own will get between 200-240 seats.

When Modi was announced PM candidate., I was predicting 160-180 seats for BJP., as #pappu imploded - I was looking at 180-200 seats and after the Modi's historic speech in Bihar and Amit Shah's campaign in UP took off, BJP has crossed 200 seats. I am thinking of a very high probability around 223 seats.

So here are the final numbers for NDA - incl. TDP., TN rainbow coalition., Rainbow coalition in N & W and SS coalition in Mah -

1) Less than 200 0
2) Between 200-220, 0
3) Between 221-240, 0
4) Between 241-260, 40
5) Between 261-280, 40
6) between 281-300 20
7) or greater 300 0

In short 100% confidence that 240-300 is the number for NDA.

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Apr 2014 05:05

For NDA, here are my numbers

disha 0 0 0 40 40 20 0

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 13 Apr 2014 08:42

matrimc wrote:[matrimc,nda,[5%,10%,15%,45%,20%,5%,0%]]

Sacral sorry for the wrong format. I saw your post after I posted. So I am simply posting the above in the format suggested by you.

matrimc 5 10 15 45 20 5 0

rvishwak · Post by **rvishwak** » 13 Apr 2014 14:53

For Week2:

rvishwak 0 0 25 65 10 0 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 13 Apr 2014 18:42

Talk of EVM magic is utter BS. They can fail, that's all. The only magic that can happen is if the EC officials allow fraudulent voting on site. How likely is that unless all poll monitors are compromised? Such fraud, if it happens, will help BJP as they have the resources (money) and are in the ascendant (even cong UP president resigned and supports BJP). Historically fraud happens via muscle power/money and I don't see why that should change now (i.e., hacking EVMs which is too much effort for too little). So fraud in WBengal helps Mamata and fraud in TN favors Jaya; Fraud in UP will help BJP. In any case, effect of such fraud is very very small, possible close to zero and much less than ballot stuffing ops in the past.

Am waiting for more info before revising estimate next week. Basically pieces of relevant info are turnout numbers, muslim turnout, and age demographic effects. All of these favor BJP. If we have one term of decent governance, BJP will further consolidate due to demographics and also general competence of people like Amit Shah (no doubt they will start planning for 2019 pretty soon; In between they will takeover state governments as well). That NDA+ will be ruling this time is pretty much foregone conclusion. Welcome to new power shifts.

The discussion on 2014 polls here is much more balanced and realistic than it may have been in 2009. CSDS poll in 2009 predicted UPA government which is what we got. http://blogs.outlookindia.com/default.a ... 0&pid=1613 All the polls show much higher vote percentage for BJP/NDA this time around and consequently they are predicting NDA+ this time. There is a wave (or change if you dont like the word wave) and the polls are consistent with that.

Next collation on Friday 18th.. So you can edit your post till Friday morning IST (Ramana can lock thread on Thursday night EST). Friday 17th Phase 5 is important because of Karnataka and Maharashtra. Any indication on whether NDA is below, at, or above expectations (with reference to polls) can be quite informative as these two are "swing" states it appears (like Virginia in the US).

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 13 Apr 2014 20:24

My forecast for this week: same as earlier. no change.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 14 Apr 2014 07:56

For BJP
1) Less than 200 30
2) Between 200-220, 35
3) Between 221-240, 25
4) Between 241-260, 10
5) Between 261-280, 0
6) between 281-300 0
7) or greater 300 0

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 14 Apr 2014 11:34

Possible total of BJP around 200. Best around 220. NDA add another 30 possible and 35 best with TDP etc. So we may be looking at 230 to 255. Floters like TRS, AIDMK, DMK, AGP, NE state level parties etc will have no "idealogical" problems to support. People NCP even Behenji may keep distance indifference and may not actively oppose. Jagan may want to have his criminal cases settled and may be willing to support BJP in spite of EJ background.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 14 Apr 2014 12:33

My numbers for this week are :

Shakimaan 0 40 40 10 10 0 0

These are unchanged from last week. So many conflicting pieces of information!

I subscribed to 5fourty3 yesterday and got access today morning. I don't want to reveal their news here (people should pay for their work), but in general they are very positive about NaMo's chances. So positive in fact that I'm finding it difficult to believe.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 14 Apr 2014 16:37

NDA for second week

Patni 0 0 10 30 40 15 5

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 14 Apr 2014 16:39

For week two

merlin 5 35 30 15 10 5 0

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 14 Apr 2014 18:52

I'm conservative to begin with. BJP is still not strong in many, many states. Not sure how much a Modi wave can help marginal candidates. Just a feeling that numbers might not be that rosy. The early rounds are done, the key 4 rounds start from the 17th and there is enough gap between any round for the wave to ebb a little - at least that's what the EC hopes.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 14 Apr 2014 21:27

matrimc wrote:~~Sacral~~

Sorry that was on iPad

Should have been Saral.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 14 Apr 2014 21:33

matrimc wrote:
matrimc wrote:~~Sacral~~
Sorry that was on iPad Should have been Saral.

You just escaped an IT audit

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 14 Apr 2014 22:09

Strike my earlier post. New numbers.

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... ark-508557

vijaykarthik 0,0,12,38,38,12,0

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 15 Apr 2014 03:09

1) Less than 200, 10%
2) Between 200-220, 30%
3) Between 221-240, 30%
4) Between 241-260, 15%
5) Between 261-280, 10%
6) between 281-300, 5%
7) or greater than 300, 0%

brihaspati 3 30 30 15 10 10 2 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 15 Apr 2014 06:07

My numbers (might edit on Thu night)

Saral 0 0 0 25 45 30 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 15 Apr 2014 06:11

B-ji: there are 7 ranges. I see 8 numbers in your entry.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2014 06:19

Use his % numbers. I think there was typo.

brihaspati · Post by **brihaspati** » 15 Apr 2014 09:39

ramana wrote:Use his % numbers. I think there was typo.

Sorry - I gave a different value for the list.
Please take 3 30 30 15 10 10 2

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 15 Apr 2014 10:39

Chaanakya 0 0 0 0 0 0 100

well I am not able to give % as there are no ranges after 300. If there is even 10% swing in favour of BJP that would result in upset result. That might just happen given the popular mood. My daughter, a non voter and below 18, asked her mother to vote for Namo. Earlier she was undecided or decided not to go to polling centre. She has agreed to vote. Mostly ladies are voting in Namo favour and they are deciding independently of male members.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 15 Apr 2014 14:50

what's GJP ?

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 15 Apr 2014 14:58

Okay... this week my dhoti has shivered a bit because of EVM-Jadugari scaremongering

. So I will account for that in this week.

Either there is a EVM-Jadugari or there is no such thing. In case it is there, BJP can't go upwards to 200. And if it is not then my earlier prediction doesn't change. Only thing I have to decide is that how much probability I give to EVMJ. I give it 20%. So will adjust my earlier prediction accordingly.

1) Less than 200, 20%
2) Between 200-220, 0%
3) Between 221-240, 0%
4) Between 241-260, 5%
5) Between 261-280, 20%
6) between 281-300, 25%
7) or greater than 300, 30%

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 15 Apr 2014 15:40

Marten wrote:
Rahul M wrote:what's GJP ?
Gujarat Janata Party.
Unless one posts numbers, one cannot ask questions.

Also runs the risk of getting banned.

......................

Bit seriously its a sub project of "Good Judgement Project"
http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... =24&t=6766

.......................

Hey Sita maiyaa. Tujhe shat shat pranaam.

.....................

Added later:
VVV - Now that you mention the kahin pe nishana missed utterly. Should have added some smilies. Sorry prah ji I know you know, hum to bahti ganga mein dubki maar rahe they.

Nobody can ban a forum mod.

member_25682 · Post by **member_25682** » 15 Apr 2014 18:19

5 10 10 10 15 25 25

Counting on more and more "AAP Ki Adalat" type of consolidation of softened territory by Namo.

kish · Post by **kish** » 15 Apr 2014 21:41

ramana wrote:Use his % numbers. I think there was typo.

Ramana ji,

I have a suggestion, If possible please reset the tool at the top of this thread every week(say every monday). Though it may not contribute to BRF's GJP, it will show how BJP/NDA is doing according to BRFiets.

My prediction for the week

2, 10, 25, 25, 25, 13, 0

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2014 23:52

I will reset it on Friday AM this week to capture next week's poll.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 01:06

C-Voter's Yashwant Deshmukh came up with a website http://www.wikipredict.in to predict your own numbers by state. Also given are predictions by various professional surveys.

People here may find it useful

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 16 Apr 2014 22:47

he he martenullah, I knew that couldn't be it.

thx ravi ji.

prediction :
5 30 40 15 5 0 0

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 16 Apr 2014 23:02

1) Less than 200: 5
2) Between 200-220: 15
3) Between 221-240: 25
4) Between 241-260: 20
5) Between 261-280: 20
6) between 281-300: 15
7) Above 300: 0

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 17 Apr 2014 19:31

26 entries for NDA so far.. Last week's tally was 41. Hopefully liquor can be distributed to increase turnout. Some new entries. Many drop-outs from week 1.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 17 Apr 2014 19:33

After this week's rounds
5 5 40 50 0 0

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 19:34

I say 100% chance for 260-280, 0% chance for <200, and 0% chance > 350.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 19:35

Saral plan to lock it today 3:00pm PST ie 6:00pm Eastern.

saip · Post by **saip** » 17 Apr 2014 20:27

10%,10%,60%,10%,10%,0%,0%

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:41

0%, 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 20%, 10%