Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 15 Apr 2014 21:20

pankajs wrote:
Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 1h

If the turnout drops in coming phases of elections; we can see the 2004 repeated. If turnout goes up; we can see new history being made.

The NDTV poll giving NDA 275 in the middle of polling is eerily similar to 2004. can depress turnout of bjp supporters and the other side can manage through secret messages and biker groups conveying the message. but if the bjp fails to turn out its supporters they deserve to lose anyway.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 21:23

Eternal vigilance .. Hope BJP has learned form the past and is better prepared.

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 14m

At this point of 2014 election, Congress is finding it difficult to cross 75 & AAP is finding it difficult to cross Zero #SorryTruthHurts

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 31m

NN of Congress has outspent Anant of BJP by many many times in South Blore; the ratio is apparently 65:35 or possibly even 70:30

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 35m

Conservative estimates suggest total spend on Bangalore South MP constituency alone to be around 90 Cr!!

Raghunath AS ‏@asraghunath 34m

BJP worker Shantimoy Mondal got brutally attacked by TMC goons at Jagadishpur

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 15 Apr 2014 21:25

Good analysis muraliravi, thanks a lot for the effort. Need to keep the NDA honest and on its toes with respect to the numbers so that they don't slacken. Your numbers can be taken as a baseline and then deviations tracked from it.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 21:31

dna ‏@dna 47m

Congress wants to finish the poor instead of abolishing poverty: Vasundhara Raje http://dnai.in/cadx #MyVote2014

Alok Bhatt ‏@alok_bhatt 49m

Dear @INCIndia - please tell Priyanka Gandhi, Here father didnt die for the country but was killed by the monster created by her grandmom.

AjitK · Post by **AjitK** » 15 Apr 2014 21:32

https://twitter.com/mishrasmita08

sm senior bjp leaders vry apprehensive aftr recent surveys, say mid electin survey wud only mke workers complacent, extra-relaxed. one leader even said the effect was already setting in....

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 Apr 2014 21:34

2004 was the other way around - after early polling it was apparent the NDA had jumped the gun on the elections and that they weren't a shoo-in for re-election, which was subsequently confirmed.

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 15 Apr 2014 21:36

Avinash Rav wrote: I was talking to my parents in Bangalore yesterday and they are planning to vote for Nandan Nilekani. I tried to convince my parents about the secular appeasement traits of Nelekani and instead vote for BJP (indirectly Modi). My father is asking for proof.

Can anyone please post links/photos which prove the appeasement politics of Nilekani ? Any info which puts Nilekani in bad light will do.

show the pic with the cap and ask if any muslim has ever worn tilak to express secularism and why secularism is the burden of hindus alone.

whatever his credentials may have been in corporate world, now - he is just another congress neta now and should be judged accordingly and voted against.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 Apr 2014 21:36

my area falls under blr central. it is likely either the congis or aap will lap up most of the votes along ORR because PC mohan has not been seen here lately, there are some urgent issues like depleted groundwater, pollution of bellandur lake, better service roads and interior roads off the ORR....the congis seem to have given permission for a huge new SEZ opp Agara lake on land once used to be bellandur lake....will increase congestion hugely. but email list sikulars are more upset that mohanji did not reply to their set of questions.

BijuShet · Post by **BijuShet** » 15 Apr 2014 21:39

SoniaG = Captain of 40 thieves (Ali Baba & 40 thieves). Don't repeat Mustafa's mistake of unknowingly helping thieves by voting for Hand?

length = 138 chars

Feel free to tweet if you can to prospective Indian voters.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 15 Apr 2014 21:53

ShivrajSingh Chouhan ‏@ChouhanShivraj 10h

Now we know why Rahul and Sonia ji are defending UPA while Manmohan ji is silent. The government was never his.

Rahul Kanwal ‏@rahulkanwal 5h

Roads in Gujarat's villages are better than most state highways of UP. Most towns & villages have seen significant infrastructure upgrades

Wasn't it his channel that gave the maximum airtime to Farzi and his claim of no development in Gujarat?

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 15 Apr 2014 22:00

good analysis by Muraliji,
Punjab will be a shock. Congress is united in Punjab this time. All factions are working together and Akali's are proving to be liability for BJP. Instead of cultivating Sidhu as JattSikh face of party and making inroads in rural areas, BJP blundered by denying him ticket. IF SAD + BJP gets 5 seats that will be achievment by current scheme of thing.
As per my info AAP is getting popular in Punjab so hopefully they will dent Cong share of votes.

vic · Post by **vic** » 15 Apr 2014 22:02

In 2004 Sangh Cadre hated Advani as his pro Muslim and ABV love Sonia stand was well known. Cadre remain uncommitted and aloof. This time whole Sangh Parivaar cadre and even the average voter wants Modi to win and people want to go out and vote Modi In.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 15 Apr 2014 22:03

^^

For BJP's long run it is a good decision to get rid of Sidhu. That buffoon is an embarrassment.

Such loses will be recovered elsewhere.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 15 Apr 2014 22:06

as for bangalore central, most people i have interacted with are really disappointed with p c mohan but when i ask will they vote for rizwan then, the answer is no...

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 15 Apr 2014 22:43

VinayB wrote:The NDTV poll giving NDA 275 in the middle of polling is eerily similar to 2004. can depress turnout of bjp supporters and the other side can manage through secret messages and biker groups conveying the message. but if the bjp fails to turn out its supporters they deserve to lose anyway.

There was no rationale for NDTV to break the consensus on not publishing opinion polls during elections. No other channel is publishing either exit or opinion polls. The only cause I can think of is that it is a dirty trick by Cong to lull BJP cadres into complacency. NDTV is a Cong whore. It won't do anything that won't benefit this Mafia party in some way.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 15 Apr 2014 22:47

Shaktimaan wrote:Narendra Modi: Britain can't simply shrug off this Hindu extremist : by Priyamvada Gopal (M.A from JNU)

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... mism-india

More and more of these vitriolic anti-Modi articles are appearing in western media. Surely a great sign for us jingoes?

It's state approved. Al guardian is a Labour Party mouth piece. Torygraph is less vitriolic but the their reporter dean neocon is a loverboy of viceroy Dalrymple. Only if NaMo is the first world leader to welcome Scotland as a newly independent country, thus questioning why uk deserves the UNSC seat, would truly set cat among the pigeons. The first thing the editors of Al Guardian and Torygraph would do,under express orders of Their PM, could be fire these left liberals. Perhaps NaMo should welcome Nigel Farage as a state guest even if he caters to a fringe right wing of UK. Cameron- Milliband duo won't understand what hit them.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 15 Apr 2014 22:49

muraliravi, once again, injecting a dose of reality into everything has been most refreshing and for this you have my most sincere thanks.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 15 Apr 2014 22:54

How are RSS and other Sanghis doing the campaigning? Aren't they going door to door?

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 15 Apr 2014 23:29

muraliravi wrote:
Thats what I think will happen on May 16. NDA will need 34 seats and I have shown where they can get 35 seats from. Those 35 (yes including NCP) will give Namo least trouble in running govt. Stay away from Jaya as far as you can. Dont align with BJD, instead grow BJP in orissa. People may not like DMK, but they are a reliable party to run a govt.

One caveat, I have assumed 36 seats for BJP in UP and 18 in Bihar. If that tally goes up to 75, then all bets are off. But even that should not change congress numbers much because Cong is anyway marginal player in UP and Bihar.

MRji. I am sure your astute analysis would give a sense of reality to euphoric brfites. You prediction seems to be modeled on the basis of previous voting pattern and caste equations. It Assumes that people would vote according to their caste and groups en block. I am not sure if you have taken swing factor into account. I had an interesting chat with one congi strategist in charge of one Parliamentary constituency. He described how they have put up friendly candidates to split votes of various groups/castes and prevent it from going to BJP supported candidates. His basic assumption was that people would vote according to caste. And by putting friendly candidates from established parties and independent ones they would be able to scrape through. That showed me that congis are fighting each seat with minute analysis. However, their analysis discount NaMo wave.

Now I believe that this time there are more that 10 crores new and fist time voters and most of them would not vote according to caste etc.Majority of established voters would not vote according to their set pattern but there would be migration of voters irrespective of castes in favour of NaMo. Ladies are voting big time for NaMo. Dalit , Backward castes appear to be gravitating towards NaMo , mostly in Hindi Heartland. A section of Muslims might split as well. Upper castes are not unhappy with NaMo and hence likely to stick with him. People are slowly realising that BJP rule was far better than UPA10 and that includes me as well. In Bihar Nitish is virtually decimated but Congis and RJD are not going to come back.

Now what you have given BJP , I would add another 40 to 45 from Congi account. RJD I would give about 4 to 5 seats. JDU 2. While NCP may not get more than 5 seats.SP would be in single digit while BSP would meet similar fate. I don't know which two seats AAP would get. I would say Big Zero. Not sure about how AIADMK, DMK would be affected in TN. TMC might suffer a little but would scrape through largely unscathed.

That would add to another 45+8+2+15+10+2=82 seats +191=273 for BJP without any support. Add 30 from Allies and it crosses 300.

It all depends upon one premise that there is TsuNaMo and that people would rise above their narrow considerations. If I am mistaken Voters deserved the rule it got for last 10 years and would deserve the punishment they would get for next fifty years.

May be it is all my wishful thinking. I am eagerly awaiting 16th May and been closely involved in conducting elections so its like crucial exam for me as well. I know for sure that fears of EVM manipulation is entirely wrong. So Congis have no fail safe mechanism to prevent their decimation.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 15 Apr 2014 23:51

Also wasn't Sidhu accused of not visiting his constituency even once in last five years? All I see him now is a judge on Comedy Circus with Kapil.

Muraliravi, 5forty3 guy is openly saying on twitter that NDA will have a big win this time. See first post on this page.

Loosk like NN is trying to buy his seat! Are S Bangalore folks willing to be bought?

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 15 Apr 2014 23:54

Comedian Bhagwant Maan of AAP who refused to get Ticket from Chandigarh instead wanting to contest from his home town of Sangrur has a realistic chances of defeating Vijay Inder Singla (Sitting MP of Congress 2009) and/or Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa (SAD MP of 2004). Bhagwant Maan is seen as a "Good Guy" by most of the Punjabis due to his Skits.

Ludhiana has Ravneet Singh Bittu from Congress, Manpreet Singh Ayali (MLA of Dakha) as Akali/BJP candidate and H.S Phoolka of AAP (Supreme court Attorney Phoolka has spent all his life fighting for the victims of the 1984 pogrom)

Ambika Soni of INC will definitely lose the Anandpur Sahib to Chandumajra of Akali Dal.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 Apr 2014 23:57

The silence of my AAP-friendly IT-vity friends in Bluru to Nilekani's vote buying is deafening. The same guys who've been passive aggressively bitching about Ambani/Adani/Modi for over a month are completely silent about this.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 00:03

Rubbish that is floated is that a MP doing regular rounds of his or her constituency can make a big difference. Hardly. The funds under MP disposal would hardly be enough to make half a kilometer of proper pavements. Even the municipality can do much more than what a MP can really do. All a MP can achieve is under a crony setup whereby he favors deals with the influential in his or her locality to buy loyalties. Improvement in constituency infrastructure is matter of State and Central policies. Good policies and transparent processes will boost investment sentiment. Where such is to be invested then only will depend upon MPs if they can influence land acquisition or convince the influence peddlers whether they be village panchayats or RWA heads or land owners about benefits and co-opting them in the development process. All that depends not upon a good MP but largely on the top. All this 'Vote for the right candidate' business being said with a straight serious face, it's crap.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Apr 2014 00:03

muraliravi wrote: Thats what I think will happen on May 16. NDA will need 34 seats and I have shown where they can get 35 seats from. Those 35 (yes including NCP) will give Namo least trouble in running govt. Stay away from Jaya as far as you can. Dont align with BJD, instead grow BJP in orissa. People may not like DMK, but they are a reliable party to run a govt.

One caveat, I have assumed 36 seats for BJP in UP and 18 in Bihar. If that tally goes up to 75, then all bets are off. But even that should not change congress numbers much because Cong is anyway marginal player in UP and Bihar.

Good analysis. The only caveat I would add is that in the west and Hindi speaking states, the BJP has a higher percentage overall which will translate to more seats. Yes, if BJP cadres get complacent it is not a good thing. I would give the BJP alone at least 200.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 00:05

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 4h

Odisha polls : Why BJD is on tenterhooks http://odishasuntimes.com/46899/odisha- ... nterhooks/ …

As the campaigning for the second and the last phase of polls in Odisha draws to a close, the election managers of the ruling Biju Janata Dal have reasons to be on tenterhooks.

In 2009, the BJD had won as many as 69 of the 77 Assembly seats that go to polls on April 17. However, there is little hope that they will be able to reach anywhere close to that figure this time. The iinsiders say, the ruling party is all set to lose heavily in this round of polls because of three factors- anti-incumbency, rebel activities and the Modi factor, if not in that order.

The observers feel, while the Modi factor appears to be working in favour of the BJP in the Lok Sabha polls, it is the anti-incumbency and rebel factors that would help the Congress to cut into the BJD vote bank in the Assembly polls and cause upsets in at least 15 constituencies.

The charisma of film actors engaged by the BJD doesn’t seem to have made much of a difference as far wooing the voters is concerned, concede party insiders.

“ It’s Naveen Patnaik and he alone who is the star campaigner for us and he is doing is best. Although he is working very hard and addressing 10 to 15 election meetings a day, the big problem with him is that he lacks oratorical skills and people do not understand half of what he reads out from his written speeches,” says a BJD candidate in the Jajpur district.

...
While some believe that, the BJP may win 8 to 10 seats in the second phase, there are others who doubt if the saffron party can win more than 3. The argument that the latter put forward is that the BJP may not take advantage of the’ favourable situation ‘ because it lacks a solid network- a primary requirement for mobilization of votes- in the coastal region.

f BJP does not gain out of the division of the incumbency votes, can the Congress fill in the void ? That question has no ready answers. For, as far as campaigning goes, the Congress camp is in great disarray. The double visits by Sonia Gandhi and Rahul have brought little cheer to the Congress candidates in most constituencies. In fact, most of them are angry over the manner in which the members of the ‘PCC coterie’ hijacked the Gandhis to their own battle zones while leaving the rest high and dry.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 00:06

Raghunath AS ‏@asraghunath 44m

Secularized List of candidates in this LS election for Maharashtra. pic.twitter.com/Sae6yEZQIw

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 00:25

Vikas Saraswat ‏@VikasSaraswat 2h

No journalist has had the courage to question Priyanka on Vadra deals. She's managing a campaign. Cant hide behind d cloak of apoliticalness

disha · Post by **disha** » 16 Apr 2014 01:12

If this breach is sustained, give 55+ to BJP in UP

http://www.firstpost.com/photos/photos- ... 81043.html

Gujarat model at work!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 01:20

ramana wrote:Also wasn't Sidhu accused of not visiting his constituency even once in last five years? All I see him now is a judge on Comedy Circus with Kapil.

Muraliravi, 5forty3 guy is openly saying on twitter that NDA will have a big win this time. See first post on this page.

Loosk like NN is trying to buy his seat! Are S Bangalore folks willing to be bought?

Which one Sir, is it the heartland analysis one?

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 16 Apr 2014 01:25

I think Ramana is referring to the tweets by Dr.Praveen Patil posted by Pankaj.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 01:36

muraliravi wrote:
ramana wrote:Also wasn't Sidhu accused of not visiting his constituency even once in last five years? All I see him now is a judge on Comedy Circus with Kapil.

Muraliravi, 5forty3 guy is openly saying on twitter that NDA will have a big win this time. See first post on this page.

Loosk like NN is trying to buy his seat! Are S Bangalore folks willing to be bought?
Which one Sir, is it the heartland analysis one?

5forty3.in which is a subscription based site now. Upto this point things are looking good for BJP. 17th is a big day. Hopefully middle class will not take vacation and vote in big numbers.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 01:44

Ambar wrote:I think Ramana is referring to the tweets by Dr.Praveen Patil posted by Pankaj.

He talks about sub 75 for cong. Lets see, I trust his polls to some extent, but I also have amazing faith in BJP to snatch defeat from jaws of victory. But since this time, the wave is so huge, defeat is not an option, but BJP under 200 and more around the 190 mark is a definite possibility. I will stick with that. I am not trying to imply that I understand elections better than rooted ground level people like Dr. Patil, but just that I dont see anyway they can go sub 100 at all. Unless they are in for a major shock in Assam like BJP winning 6-7 seats, AUDF -2, Bodo -1, congress is left with 4 seats, Karnataka BJP defies all predictions and retains its previous best of 19 seats and pushes congress to 8 seats and Maharashtra just completely routs congress.

So in Assam cong tally needs to be down by 4, KA down by 8, MH down by 4 to hit 90 seats. Now tell me what are the chances of all three happening?

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 01:47

muraliravi,

Did you check out http://wikipredict.in/ ? This is created by Yashwant Deshmukh of c-Voter

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 02:01

Those people who have had long associations with various parties and local leaders, those who have participated in campaigning and party work in the past, those who have family members in some party, these people would stick with the party concerned.

All others have to make a decision - do they want to make NaMo, who represents a record of assured implementation of governance and development promises, as PM of India or not.

All these people too may be swayed by their upbringing or ideology which may force them to stay away from a Hindu Hriday Samrat, but even this group is limited.

Then there would be areas where BJP would have been historically weak, and even NaMo mantra may not be considered enough to make a noticeable change on the ground. In other areas there may be a very strong anti-incumbency wave against sitting BJP MPs.

These two groups one cannot sway. Nor can one win every area where BJP is weak.

Most of the people however would not be swayed by anti-Hindutva propaganda or non-Indic ideologies. Most people would respond to the message of governance and development, and they will vote for Modi. For them all other considerations would not be relevant. They would vote Modi. This has become a referendum on Modi, and even Modi's detractors have made him an issue by their fierce criticism.

I too think Congress would get stuck between 60 and 75, and UPA would remain under 90.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 16 Apr 2014 02:03

Gus wrote:
Avinash Rav wrote: I was talking to my parents in Bangalore yesterday and they are planning to vote for Nandan Nilekani. I tried to convince my parents about the secular appeasement traits of Nelekani and instead vote for BJP (indirectly Modi). My father is asking for proof.

Can anyone please post links/photos which prove the appeasement politics of Nilekani ? Any info which puts Nilekani in bad light will do.
show the pic with the cap and ask if any muslim has ever worn tilak to express secularism and why secularism is the burden of hindus alone.

whatever his credentials may have been in corporate world, now - he is just another congress neta now and should be judged accordingly and voted against.

https://www.facebook.com/VoteForChange2 ... 2416142111

"Vote" For Change - 2014 General Elections

Hats off to our Vice President, Mohammad Hamid Ansar who didn't touch or even put his Hands over AARTI of PUJA THAALI at Ram Leela Ground Delhi !

Hats Off to this real Secular Vice President who rejected the Fascist HINDU Religious Ritual in presence of thousands , PM & Cabinet!

Note: If Narendra Modi refuse to wear skull cap he is communal & if Mohd. Hamid Ansari refuse to take Aarti, its his religious beliefs.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 02:04

Vamsee wrote:muraliravi,

Did you check out http://wikipredict.in/ ? This is created by Yashwant Deshmukh of c-Voter

Vamsee,

The lesser said about cvoter's dubious record in predicting elections, the better it is. Having burnt our fingers so many times, i dont understand why we should not be extra careful in taking these predictions with a bucket of salt.

There are 2 major issues that plague most of the predictions

1. Their reach in ultra rural India (where a good chunk of congress supporters live) is still pathetic.

2. Surveys are decent when it comes to predicting a 2 way fight. But when it becomes a 3 way fight, they stumble and in a 4 way fight, we should not even look at them unless they have a rigorous methodology and a good sample at a seat level.

My suggestion to anyone who wants a really good picture is to take CSDS latest numbers (just follow csds and 5forty3, rest are junk, buts thats just me. The reason i say that is because everyone else does only phone surveys and claim that their larger samples compensates for bias and a surface analysis will tell you that their logic is flawed. How will extra data points among a similar group of people cancel out the bias that originates from a group that has no access to phones and who are more than likely congress voters; please also factor in the fact that while Dr. Patil is awesome, he has an intrinsic bias towards BJP). Take the lower end of CSDS in each state (not the lower end of their final tally) and then add it up. Go back a few pages and I have put up that table. That is the number you should see as the worst BJP performance. But that can be realistic as well.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 02:26

muraliravi,

I saw your chart and actually quite delighted. Your pessimistic scenario itself is suggesting best every tally for BJP!!!
As a bonus we may not require Naveen/Jaya/Mamta as per your projections.

If we add to the fact that 10 crore new voters are getting added to the rolls this time, There is a good chance that tally may go up.
Even if it does not increase and in fact even if BJP gets say 185, still it is a good result.

I posted the link because it can be used to see all other surveys and can put your own numbers in it.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Apr 2014 02:47

Vamsee and Murlairavi, If NDA gets to be the largest single party then it will have its own dynamics. Its not like 1996 when none of the 'secular' parties would support BJP.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 16 Apr 2014 02:52

Anyway we can get the list of 185 rallies Modi is attending and map them with MP seats? Do these include the so-called 50-60 BJP forts?

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 02:56

My optimistic number for NDA at this moment is 258 and pessimistic number is 225.