Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 03:08

I have reasons to believe my optimist number for NDA is 360 and pessimist is 290. The depth of understanding of the Khan-Ghazi dynasty (some of you may know it as Nehru-Gandhi) subterfuge is simply awesome at many levels. There has been nothing like this ever. Even 77 when there was a Janta party wave, there was no talk of development, no internet, state controlled media, no SM, more poverty, more illiterates etc. Yet it swept the INC to smithereens. Now what is happening here is bigger both horizontally and vertically. The results of these elections are going to booty shake the Khan-Ghazi khandaan for once and for all.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Apr 2014 03:16

harbans how about Mughal or Khan-Ghazi Mukth Bharat

ramana wrote:
Sushupti wrote:

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 03:21

harbans wrote:I have reasons to believe my optimist number for NDA is 360 and pessimist is 290. The depth of understanding of the Khan-Ghazi dynasty (some of you may know it as Nehru-Gandhi) subterfuge is simply awesome at many levels. There has been nothing like this ever. Even 77 when there was a Janta party wave, there was no talk of development, no internet, state controlled media, no SM, more poverty, more illiterates etc. Yet it swept the INC to smithereens. Now what is happening here is bigger both horizontally and vertically. The results of these elections are going to booty shake the Khan-Ghazi khandaan for once and for all.

Harbansji,

Can you give breakup by state?

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 16 Apr 2014 03:24

harbans wrote:I have reasons to believe my optimist number for NDA is 360 and pessimist is 290. The depth of understanding of the Khan-Ghazi dynasty (some of you may know it as Nehru-Gandhi) subterfuge is simply awesome at many levels. There has been nothing like this ever. Even 77 when there was a Janta party wave, there was no talk of development, no internet, state controlled media, no SM, more poverty, more illiterates etc. Yet it swept the INC to smithereens. Now what is happening here is bigger both horizontally and vertically. The results of these elections are going to booty shake the Khan-Ghazi khandaan for once and for all.

Tathastu! Bharat needs it. All my prayers for this to happen.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 03:24

Very apt cartoon. Completely disgusted with this Fraud family. This Khan Ghazi family is actually and one can see it taken aback and has no answers when canvassing at a developmental blank. They have nothing to talk, discuss, feel proud on any developmental or governance issue. Complete fraud and people have realized it. They may have caste or regional based peccadilloes and some may make some alliances with these fraudsters, but if i read the situation right, this family will find it hard to get past a 50 mark by themselves.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 03:31

Vamsee ji, i gave it a month back:

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 16 Apr 2014 03:38

harbansji,

I would be happy to see those numbers on May 16th. But I can right away see that MH,UP,KT,KL are overestimates. If I take out 30 seats from those places, we get 290 which itself is insanely optimistic scenario.

Regards,

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 16 Apr 2014 04:51

all these over estimates is to fool people into believing that NaMo is winning big and they dont need to go out and vote. Also the workers might get a little lax on seeing such things. Congi game written all over

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 16 Apr 2014 04:52

Muraliravi saar,
kongis have been in perpetual decline. See the graph and you will see huge falls in the graph. At each stage, a sacrifice was needed to even get back to bare minimum. Because at each stage, there was strong anti-kongi wave. This time again, there is strong anti-kongi wave and there is no sacrifice to save them. Then, add TsuNaMo effect. And the fact that the kongis are already on their last throes. If the kongis get 100, it surely means magic. I think Rndtv poll was to show that kongis can get 100. If they are giving 220 to Lotus, I think it means 270 for lotus. I don't believe this theory that lotus or its supporters will get complacent due to opinion polls. Thats a silly theory, in my humble view. 2009 was lost because there was dummy candidates who split the votes, economy was doing well(and there was support for manly singh from urban voters) and there was magic also. In Theluguland, Yesu Reddy had burnt the files thinking that he won't come to power. But he scraped through. And it was this land that gave many seats to the kongis. How did that happen? It happened because dummy parties like Chiru or Lok Chatta split the votes and because there was magic.

I think 2009 was a bigger shock. The magic is crucial because it works at the swing level. Access to few machines will suffice.

I am actually amazed that people want to believe that no one would try to make use of any loopholes in machines. It is easier to fix machines than people. People come with lot more complexities. Machines are easier to fix and control. In a country,
where a PM candidate's rally was openly bombed,
where a super pradhani clears the files while the pradhani is eager to give away national territory,
where foreign foundations fund new parties,

...etc
how hard is it to manipulate the machines? Can anybody claim that those machines are tamper proof? Can anyone claim that parties or politicians won't try such things? Anyway, the biggest problem with those machines is that a person does not know whether his vote has really gone to the party/candidate that he has voted for. He has to blindly trust the machine. Some people maybe naturally inclined to trust while others maybe naturally inclined to suspect. I am inclined to suspect, so I don't want to trust any machine or man blindly, as much as I can help it. So, there should be a paper trail or paper ballot.

Now the interesting question is: if the machines have no special role, then why has the regime not allowed paper trail? Why did it keep delaying?

I think the game at this stage is to somehow make the kongis survive this cycle. If the kongis get below 50, its over. So, they are fudging the numbers to puff up the kongis to around 100. I think, in this anti-kongi wave environment, kongis will get less than 60. If not, its magic.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Apr 2014 05:03

Modiji interview on TV9

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Apr 2014 06:08

Over 132 crore liters of liquor and cash seized by EC

NEW DELHI: These elections are proving to be a tippler's delight, if the figures of liquor seizures made by Election Commission-appointed teams are anything to go by. Over 132 crore litres of liquor have been confiscated from across the country till date, which translates to nearly 1.6 litre seized for each voter in the country's 81.4-crore electorate.

As for cash seizures, they totalled Rs 269 crore as per EC data prepared till Tuesday. The lion's share of these cash seizures has come from Andhra Pradesh (Rs 129 crore), followed by Maharashtra (Rs 33.46 crore), Tamil Nadu (Rs 19.87 crore), Karnataka (Rs 12.29 crore), Uttar Pradesh (Rs 12 crore) and Punjab (Rs 5 crore).

More than 12,000 FIRs have been registered against distribution of cash and illegal inducements in various states.

It's not only alcohol that is in full flow in the poll-bound states. Deadly drugs are also being held out as a "potent" bait, with heroin seizures from across the country totalling 104 kg so far. EC teams in Punjab, according to commission sources, have reported some big drug seizures.

An EC official said the seized quantities may only reflect a part of the amounts of cash, liquor and drugs in circulation during the current polls. "Moreover, with five more phases of polling yet to be held, the quantum of seizures during these elections could well see a two to three-fold rise over the current figures," the official told TOI.

So something is cooking in AP where the amount of cash siezed is 4 times the next state of Maharashtra. Punjab seems to top in durgs.

So how much is the ratio of seized to already distributed cash? 1:10 or 1:4?

Also note hardly any BJP states.
AP is in flux. But what is going on in TN?

Karnataka and UP are about same despite the vast differences in LS seats!
Shows the stiff fight in Karnataka.
Punjab could be Congress trying to unseat Akali Dal.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 16 Apr 2014 06:12

Thanks Vivek,
That is great
p:s I see you are giving thrashing to AAPtards in twitter, with other supporters

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 16 Apr 2014 06:19

I terrorize AAPtards

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 16 Apr 2014 06:25

For those of you who haven't heard Gadkari, here is

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 16 Apr 2014 06:51

TV9 interview:
32.27 onwards.... Tathastu and Tere muh mein Ghee Shakkar

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 16 Apr 2014 06:52

vivek.rao wrote:I terrorize AAPtards

Saar,
what is your teetar account?

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 16 Apr 2014 07:08

johneeG wrote:
vivek.rao wrote:I terrorize AAPtards
Saar,
what is your teetar account?

JohneeG
Send me a PM at rajushah61 geemayil, I would like to add you in my list

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 07:19

all these premature analysis are Maskirovka while the Sultanate moves 100 divisions of winter-ready forces carefully behind the lines to land a crushing blow at a time least expected.

keep those cannons loaded and the thermal sights covering horizon to horizon. be ready for a hard battle.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 16 Apr 2014 07:25

Anantha wrote: JohneeG
Send me a PM at rajushah61 geemayil, I would like to add you in my list

Saar,

I am not very active on teetar. And I want to keep the teetar and brf separate, for now. I think your teetar id is listed on brf thread, so I'll follow you. If someone can tell Vivek Rao saar, id, I'll follow him too.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 16 Apr 2014 07:48

Singha wrote:all these premature analysis are Maskirovka while the Sultanate moves 100 divisions of winter-ready forces carefully behind the lines to land a crushing blow at a time least expected.

keep those cannons loaded and the thermal sights covering horizon to horizon. be ready for a hard battle.

Absolutely agree. Modiji needs to come out and say not to get complacent and enthuse supporters, tell them to come out and vote, kick out the corrupt and not believe the polls until the last counting after 16 May. Every vote counts and all families must come out and vote, the grandparents, parents and children.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 08:08

it is clear that JJ, Naveen and Mamata are not going to be external allies of NDA post election.

so from now on, all the existing alliances of the NDA need to deliver or else they will fall short by 20 seats and find it very hard to get a stable majority.

and this swing of 20-30 seats is precisely what the congis are targeting through fake "you already won" media psyops, money power, mobilization of muslim votes for just one candidate, activating saboteurs inside the BJP, and perhaps EVM trickery also.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 16 Apr 2014 08:17

One more call for action

As you know, the South Bangalore race between BJP's Ananth Kumar and Nilekani is very tight. Nilekani is spending his millions like water and walking around with a posse of goondas & landsharks.

There is a request from BJP IT Cell to trend the #Ananth4NaMo hashtag. This can also be used alongwith the #Nilekani420 tag.

Lets create one more success after the previous one a few days ago! The link below has suggestions for what to tweet, accomplishments of Ananth Kumar etc

The tweeting has started now .............

https://docs.google.com/document/d/1_dg ... edit?pli=1

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 08:22

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/kejriwal-vis ... 3-242.html

khujli baba taking the only route to save his deposit, shameless court muslim votes from day1 itself.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 16 Apr 2014 08:38

Bangalore south has paper trail EVM this time.

Agnimitra · Post by **Agnimitra** » 16 Apr 2014 08:52

Roads washed in perennially thirsty Bankura to protect Moon Moon Sen, daughters from dust

Seventy-year old Lakshmi Devi has never seen, or heard, roads being washed in Shyamapore, a village at one end of Bankura district, a region perennially thirsty in summer.

On Tuesday afternoon, the local panchayat authorities washed a three km stretch of the metalled road winding through the village, to protect Trinamool Congress candidate Moon Moon Sen and her two daughters Ria and Raima, from the dust, when women waited for long hours at roadside taps to get a bucket of water.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 16 Apr 2014 09:02

iMac_too ‏@iMac_too 1h

Poor response to rallies of Pawar, CM Chavan, & even Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi, has left the Cong & NCP worried." http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... rashtra/3/

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 16 Apr 2014 09:04

RamaY wrote:
harbans wrote:I have reasons to believe my optimist number for NDA is 360 and pessimist is 290. The depth of understanding of the Khan-Ghazi dynasty (some of you may know it as Nehru-Gandhi) subterfuge is simply awesome at many levels. There has been nothing like this ever. Even 77 when there was a Janta party wave, there was no talk of development, no internet, state controlled media, no SM, more poverty, more illiterates etc. Yet it swept the INC to smithereens. Now what is happening here is bigger both horizontally and vertically. The results of these elections are going to booty shake the Khan-Ghazi khandaan for once and for all.
Tathastu! Bharat needs it. All my prayers for this to happen.

From 1017 to 2014 , It has taken long time.

disha · Post by **disha** » 16 Apr 2014 09:10

Agnimitra wrote:Roads washed in perennially thirsty Bankura to protect Moon Moon Sen, daughters from dust
Seventy-year old Lakshmi Devi has never seen, or heard, roads being washed in Shyamapore, a village at one end of Bankura district, a region perennially thirsty in summer.

On Tuesday afternoon, the local panchayat authorities washed a three km stretch of the metalled road winding through the village, to protect Trinamool Congress candidate Moon Moon Sen and her two daughters Ria and Raima, from the dust, when women waited for long hours at roadside taps to get a bucket of water.

Moon Moon Sen has become NaMooni Sen!!!! She needs to follow her mom's footsteps and retire from public life.

vic · Post by **vic** » 16 Apr 2014 09:11

The biggest campaigner of Modi Bhai is the inflation unleashed by Congress. It has reached every nook and cranny of the nation.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 16 Apr 2014 09:14

Done Prem Kumar. YOu are doing yeoman service to our rashtra. Kudos. Pliss to email at s s a n t o s h 7 1 attherateof yhoo chachi with list of phone numbers. I would be interested in calling Hindi/English speaking families in Mumbai/anywhere in India.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 16 Apr 2014 09:27

vic wrote:The biggest campaigner of Modi Bhai is the inflation unleashed by Congress. It has reached every nook and cranny of the nation.

This is a nice quote, may be NaMo can use it in his speech. Something like,"Kongis think people are their enemies or Modi is the enemy. Kongis should understand that their real enemy is the the inflation which they have unleashed on people. It is the misrule that is defeating the kongis. So, there is no point in kongis hating Modi."

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 10:04

suryag wrote:all these over estimates is to fool people into believing that NaMo is winning big and they dont need to go out and vote. Also the workers might get a little lax on seeing such things. Congi game written all over

Exactly what I thought.

disha · Post by **disha** » 16 Apr 2014 10:08

Okay some more analysis on Mah from this URL (thanks to whoever posted it in the fast moving threads)

Chief Minister Prithviraj Chavan does not undermine the impact of Modi. “Yes, Modi is a factor,” he says. “But polarisation will work to our advantage as Dalits and Muslims will consolidate in rural Maharashtra.” The ruling Congress-NCP alliance hopes to counter the “Modi wave” with caste, community and Muslim-Dalit polarisation.

CONgIs are communal and they are relying on the HAM part of the KHAM votebank. HAM Handed indeed is their strategy!

* Radical Maratha leader Vinayak Mete has quit the NCP to join the BJP-led alliance.

* With Bal Thackeray not around, the Shiv Sena’s own disgruntled MPs such as Anandrao Adsul in Amravati have found refuge in posters which have Modi on their side.

Modi is filling in the leadership vaccum! Regional and sub-regional parties are getting pinched. Where is this vote going? BJP has already stitched a coalition of 25 tiny, small & big parties. All that vote share is going to add up!

This time, the BJP-Sena alliance is banking largely on the Modi factor, particularly in rural Maharashtra, to increase its tally to 33 from 20, which no longer seems like the daunting task it is given the overwhelming response to Modi’s rallies from the lower strata of society, traditionally a Congress stronghold.

Shyam Laxman Markude, 38, a resident of Pardi village in Nanded and a die-hard Congress supporter, braved the 42 degrees Celsius heat to attend a Modi rally in the city although he has nothing to complain about Congress candidate Ashok Chavan.

“He is good for Maharashtra. But when it comes to the prime ministerial candidate, my support is for Narendra Modi"

Mah is going to be interesting.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 10:12

Harbans saar, 2 seats from Kerala for BJP is not going to happen.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 10:15

Zor se bolo: Modi will lose onlee

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 16 Apr 2014 10:19

I think kongis+ will get decimated because of OBCs and dalits leaving them and joining lotus+. It seems to me that the Hindhuthva 2.0 is being led by OBCs and dalits. or atleast, OBCs and dalits also seem to have joined the brigade now.

This was possible because of development when the dynasty was not at helm. This is precisely the reason why the dynasty makes sure that the OBCs and dalits are perpetually kept poor, so that they depend on handouts by the dynasty without questioning corruption or ideological issues.

Dalit aur OBC karenge kongi raavan ka sanhaar,
abki baar Modi sarkaar.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 10:21

Mat karo pledictions par vishwaas
Karo dhoti shiber baar baar
Ab ki baar Modi sarkaar

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 10:26

abhik wrote:Bangalore south has paper trail EVM this time.

yes I saw that ad in TOI today. its a connected printer which displays the selected candidates name and symbol for 7 secs , then it disappears and a printed slip of the same goes into a dropbox.

NAMO has a masterful ad today in page1 about price rise. in the background is the essential dietary item whose prices have escalated hugely under UPA misrule - sacks of all types of lentils and dried beans. anyone who does the weekly grocery from the poor to rich are feeling the pinch of escalating food prices with no end in sight.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 16 Apr 2014 10:33

Hearing Laloo is rising in Bihar. And muslims might consolidate behind him knowing that Nitish is history.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 10:34

Sulking Advani, Sushma give Karnataka rallies a miss

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... ote]Though the dates were fixed for Advani and Sushma to campaign in the state , both reportedly rejected the plan. It is said they're unhappy with the state unit over the induction of former CM B S Yeddyurappa and former minister B Sriramulu into the party.[/quote]