Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 16 Apr 2014 15:21

when is amethi voting? I thought the khujli baba b4 departing by train from dilli to varanasi had finally promised to show up in amethi and support his mate?

archan · Post by **archan** » 16 Apr 2014 15:25

Good action on teetar for #Ananth4Namo

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 16 Apr 2014 15:44

niran wrote:I bring happy tidings
Amethi since two hours ago has achieved 50/50 zone
from 80/20 in favor of Raga to 50/50 do not be surprised
if bjp Amethi achieve the unthinkable, no, at the moment no can
tell the how or future how.

Bhat about Rae Bareily saarzee?

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 16 Apr 2014 15:57

Singha wrote:when is amethi voting? I thought the khujli baba b4 departing by train from dilli to varanasi had finally promised to show up in amethi and support his mate?

Amethi votes on May 7th.

3 weeks is a lot of time to storm the keep. Plus Khujli is bound to show up and perform some monkey tricks for attention.

Although here's a sobering article on the popularity of the Dynasty in Amethi.

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/lok-s ... 43787.html

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 16 Apr 2014 16:07

Pappu should be allowed to win in Amethi. If Pappu looses, god forbidding we may actually have a semi competent, sikular sultan in charge of the Congress for some time who may restore the family's position. That is an even worser outcome.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 16:16

Far more important than Rahul Gandhi losing, is for Nandan Nilekani to lose. Sonia and Rahul should lose simply to break the family aura!

If Sonia, Rahul and Nilekani lose then Congress really becomes rudderless and would most probably break up.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 16:21

https://twitter.com/IndiaToday/status/4 ... 4840937472

India Today ‏@IndiaToday 4h

Modi doesn't know each person in Bihar has radar that helps him know if anybody tries to fool him:Rahul in Kishanganj http://goo.gl/vH4mnO

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 16:24

Sanku Sir,

Without modi, bjp would have never got the bounce in up, delhi, haryana and been a junior in bihar.

In my calc, there is at least 50 seat gain due to namo. That does not mean bjp will cross 200, it only means without namo bjp would have been at 140. I for one never said last yr bjp will get 175

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 16:24

I wasn't aware you were such a pessimistic person!

The aim should be: INC = 15; BSP/SP/AIADMK/DMK/TMC/Left etc combined total = 100. Apart from these 115, OK make it 145 seats all should go to NAMO or BJP to please MMJ. If not this election, that should be the aim of the 2019. Anything less is actually being pessimistic.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 16 Apr 2014 16:25

If you think Man Mohan Singh has brought down India and sold it's interest (to foreign powers - Siachin or New Clear policy), Nilekani (having won in LS) will make Man Mohan Singh a ultra patriot. Probably if he wins and is the PM for 5 years, then we may be under foreign rule for another 1000 years, our defeat and destruction will be complete. Even if Ananth Kumar comes and kicks you, or your loved one, still, please go and vote for him!! However we may dislike him (for KA mess or D4 politics), he has always brought something to the table in KA, 7% of his caste members, and also making BJP along with Yeddi a strong force in KA. Ambitions are not wrong in politics, we can fault his methods, but he is the right person. And against Nilekani I will vote Musharraf, a known enemy is better than a stealth one.

Lilo · Post by **Lilo** » 16 Apr 2014 16:25

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 16:28

muraliravi wrote:Sanku Sir,

Without modi, bjp would have never got the bounce in up, delhi, haryana and been a junior in bihar.

In my calc, there is at least 50 seat gain due to namo. That does not mean bjp will cross 200, it only means without namo bjp would have been at 140. I for one never said last yr bjp will get 175

I politely disagree. If BJP does not make it over 200 -- the only reading is that NaMo's contribution has been limited.

I personally dont think that will happen though.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 16 Apr 2014 16:38

muraliravi wrote:Sanku Sir,

Without modi, bjp would have never got the bounce in up, delhi, haryana and been a junior in bihar.

In my calc, there is at least 50 seat gain due to namo. That does not mean bjp will cross 200, it only means without namo bjp would have been at 140. I for one never said last yr bjp will get 175

Modi has at least doubled the BJP score. Without him BJP would be a sub-100 seat party.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 16:51

Namo will lose onlee

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 16:52

https://twitter.com/RaviTiwariBJP/statu ... 7649719296

Ravi Tiwari ‏@RaviTiwariBJP Mar 10

Breaking news- Ashwini upadhayay claimed Ravish kr NDTV, Rajdeep IBN, were offered LS ticket by AAP #AAPwedsAajTak

https://twitter.com/sjacobtalk/status/4 ... 9152291840

sarah jacob ‏@sjacobtalk 1h

Oops. Embarrassment. Congress party workers hooted their leaders with chants of "Modi-Modi" during a meet of Cong- NCP workers in Nashik.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 16 Apr 2014 16:58

Sanku wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Sanku Sir,

Without modi, bjp would have never got the bounce in up, delhi, haryana and been a junior in bihar.

In my calc, there is at least 50 seat gain due to namo. That does not mean bjp will cross 200, it only means without namo bjp would have been at 140. I for one never said last yr bjp will get 175
I politely disagree. If BJP does not make it over 200 -- the only reading is that NaMo's contribution has been limited.

I personally dont think that will happen though.

AAP would have been the winner had NaMo not been the PM ummidwar

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 17:03

abhik wrote:Bangalore south has paper trail EVM this time.

I have been speaking out here and there that if there is a chance of EVM magic, then the possibility of that in Bengaluru South would be highest.

Either Team NaMo is listening, or they simply think similarly.

If true, I'm very glad ECI has agreed to do so!

Nitesh · Post by **Nitesh** » 16 Apr 2014 17:09

^^
In BLR south, there will be paper trail, so chances of that happening will be close to Zero

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 17:14

Paul wrote: AAP would have been the winner had NaMo not been the PM ummidwar

Please. AAP is nobody in larger country. Outside the twitter verse. And NaMo being PM candidate did not really stop it in Delhi.

Lets not get carried away.

If BJP gets 190 or less, that means Modi did not really effect the results. That is all. But that wont happen.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Apr 2014 17:21

merlin wrote:
muraliravi wrote:Sanku Sir,

Without modi, bjp would have never got the bounce in up, delhi, haryana and been a junior in bihar.

In my calc, there is at least 50 seat gain due to namo. That does not mean bjp will cross 200, it only means without namo bjp would have been at 140. I for one never said last yr bjp will get 175
Modi has at least doubled the BJP score. Without him BJP would be a sub-100 seat party.

For Last five Loksabhas BJP has always got above 100 with highest one being 182.

120,161,182,180,145,116.

There was not so much of anti incumbency then, third front seemed to be viable alternative and NaMo was not there. Of Course RJB got them to 182 but no further. NaMo is on development plank more than on RJB. And he has shown how it can be achieved. That is why besides branding him communal, his development model is under attack. Govt of India statistics tell different story. Ground visit by many tell different story. Gujaratis visiting other states tell different story. People from other parts of the country in search of Job visiting Gujarat tell a different story.

So no sir NaMo should bring BJP+ above 300, that he will do, then only it is success.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 16 Apr 2014 17:28

Sanku wrote:
Paul wrote: AAP would have been the winner had NaMo not been the PM ummidwar
Please. AAP is nobody in larger country. Outside the twitter verse. And NaMo being PM candidate did not really stop it in Delhi.

Lets not get carried away.

If BJP gets 190 or less, that means Modi did not really effect the results. That is all. But that wont happen.

I am not saying that AAP would have formed a govt or emerged as a third alternative in NaMo's absence. They would have gained 10 - 15 seats in and around Delhi. I think there is space for a regional party in and around Delhi like the JDS which AAP can still occupy if it comes down to earth.

Another reason for AAP gaining such traction is that the CongI is becoming weaker. Regardless of Kejri's antics, AAP is here to stay, for there is a market for it. That is one reason why I fear CongI's complete demise, will lead to more unmanageable AAPs which are susceptible to external influence.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 17:30

IB4TL poll says NDA will be 396, BJP 256. As i mentioned earlier INC at All India figure of 66 will not have as many seats as what BJP will get in UP+ Bihar. Actually INC will bag just a few more seats all over India as BJP will bag in UP alone. Modi is only a regional leader, Rahul Ji is not just a national figure but international too. Manish Tiwari, Renuka, Diggy can you come back again on that?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 17:37

https://twitter.com/NitiCentral/status/ ... 9104201730

Niti Central ‏@NitiCentral 2h

EC cautions media against broadcast, print of opinion polls http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/16/e ... 12407.html …

The Election Commission on Wednesday cautioned media against broadcasting or publishing any opinion poll till the completion of the Lok Sabha poll on May 12.

In a communication, the EC referred to the opinion poll broadcast by a TV channel on April 14 and said it included results of 111 Lok Sabha constituencies where balloting has taken place which “in effect becomes dissemination of result of exit poll in respect of the said constituencies.”

The Commission did not name any channel, but the opinion poll was broadcast by NDTV.

This, the EC, said was violation of Section 126A of Representation of the People Act that prohibits publication and dissemination of exit polls.

No more opinion or exit poll.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Apr 2014 17:37

svinayak wrote:http://www.storypick.com/man-made-commu ... oosebumps/

a statement was made that the soldiers who fought and won the war of Kargil were Muslims and not Hindus.

Maroof Raza is a distinguished security specialist. He is the son of Brig Raza
from Grenadiers. Maroof himself served in the Army but took premature retirement.

Mahroof Raza on TimesNow -

Dear Indians!
It hurts millions of soldiers and thousands of martyrs and their
families and we Indians when some political ******** like ajam khan
says that 'those who defended kargil were not hindus, they were
muslims .
Its incorrect and criminal to divide a secular organisation like Army
on the lines of religion.
For correcting his fact there were 536 indian soldiers who achieved
martyrdom, and around 1088 soldiers got badly injured, and the
mutilation of saurav kalia and soldiers bodies are well known to us.
What Army has done for this country and what it has been doing
requires no statement from these traitors like azam khan.
My friends, if you second to this thought of mine then you are
requested to spread this msg to every one at your level so that before
this mandate 2014 one(people like ajam khan)must understand his
'Aukat'.
We the youth are as powerful as a sword, we are not fools whom these
politicians will befool.
Plz give it a thought and your requisite action is requested for those
who sit in weather like -40 degree and 58 degree to who dont own a
network in their mobiles to talk to their families. But they expect a
response from us.
Jai hind Jai Matrabhumi
Vande Maataram!!Smiling face with Sunglasses

Thank you Azam Khan for giving a communal colour to martyrdom.

Now here is the list of brave Indian Soldiers, the heroes, who died
protecting the nation in Kargil War:
__________________________
OFFICERS (INDIAN ARMY)
LT. COL. VISHWANATHAN
LT. COL. VIJAYARAGAHVAN
LT. COL. SACHIN KUMAR
MAJOR AJAY SINGH JASROTIA
MAJOR KAMLESH PATHAK
MAJOR PADHMAPHANI ACHARYA
MAJOR MARRIAPAN SARVANAN
MAJOR RAJESH SINGH ADHIKARI
MAJOR HARMIDER PAL SINGH
MAJOR MANOJ TALWAR
MAJOR VIVEK GUPTA
MAJOR SONAM WANGCHUK
MAJOR AJAY KUMAR
CAPTAIN AMOL KALIA
CAPTAIN KIESHING CLIFFORD NONGRUM
CAPTAIN SUMEET ROY
CAPTAIN AMIT VERMA
CAPTAIN PANNIKOT VISVANATH VIKRAM
CAPTAIN ANUJ NAYYAR
CAPTAIN VIKRAM BATRA
DY. COMMANDENT JOY LAL(BSF)
CAPTAIN JINTU GOGOI
LT. VIJAYANT THAPER
LT. N. KENGURUSE
LT. HANIF-U-DIN
LT. SUARAV KALIA
LT. AMIT BHARDWAJ
LT. BALWAN SINGH
LT. MANOJ KUMAR PANDEY
OFFICERS (INDIAN AIR FORCE)
SQUADREN LEADER AJAY AHUJA
SQUADREN LEADER RAJIV PUNDIR
FLT. LT. S MUHILAN
FLT. LT. NACHIKETA RAO
SEARGENT PVNR PRASAD
SERGEANT RAJ KISHORE SAHU
Naik Chaman Singh
Naik R Kamraj
Naik Kudeep Singh
Naik Birendra Singh Lamba
Naik Jasvir Singh
Naik Surendra Pal
Naik Rajkumar Punia
Naik S N Malik
Naik Surjeet Singh
Naik Jugal Kishore
Naik Suchha Singh
Naik Sumer Singh Rathod
Naik Surendra Singh
Naik Kishen Lal
Naik Rampal Singh
Naik Ganesh Yadav
Havaldar Major Yashvir Singh
Lance Naik Ahmed Ali
Lance Naik Gulam Mohammed Khan
Lance Naik M R Sahu
Lance Naik Satpal Singh
Lance Naik Shatrugan singh
Lance Naik Shyam Singh
Lance Naik Vijay Singh
Naik Degender Kumar
Havaldar Baldev Raj
Havaldar Jai Prakash Singh
Havaldar Mahavir Singh
Havaldar Mani Ram
Havaldar Rajbir Singh
Havaldar Satbir Singh
Havaldar Abdul Karim
Havaldar Daler Singh Bahu
Subedar Bhanwar Singh Rathod
Rifleman Linkon Pradhan
Rifleman Bachhan Singh
Rifleman Satbir Singh
Rifleman Jagmal Singh
Rifleman Rattan Chand
Rifleman Mohamad Farid
Rifleman Mohamad Aslam
Rifleman Yogendra Singh
Rifleman Sanjay Kumar
SEPOYS (INDIAN ARMY)
Grenadier Manohar Singh
Gunner Uddabh Das
Sepoy Amardeep Singh
Sepoy Vijay Pal Singh
Sepoy Virendra Kumar
Sepoy Yashwant Singh
Sepoy Santokh Singh
Sepoy Dinesh Bhai
Sepoy Harendragiri Goswami
Sepoy Amrish Pal Bangi
Constable Suraj Bhan (BSF)
Sepoy Lakhbir Singh
Sepoy Bajindra Singh
Sepoy Deep Chand
Sepoy Dondibha Desai
Sepoy Keolanand Dwivedi
Sepoy Harjindra Singh
Sepoy Jaswant Singh
Sepoy Jaswinder Singh
Sepoy Lal Singh
Sepoy Rakesh Kumar(RAJ)
Sepoy Rakesh Kumar (Dogra)
Sepoy Raswinder Singh
Sepoy Bir Singh
Sepoy Ashok Kumar
Tomar
Sepoy R. Selvakumar

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 17:47

It is disgusting to see such a list being published. All of them are our brave soldiers. India will for ever be proud of them. There is no need to dig up the details and put it on a list even if to prove the turd azam khan wrong. Just ignore shuch scum and crush them with iron hand once team NaMo comes to power.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 17:48

https://twitter.com/Realist_Indian/stat ... 1504650240

PragmaticIndian ‏@Realist_Indian 2h

HAHAHAHA Ravish tried SO HARD to bring in anti BJP mood among BRAHMINS. See how smartly Brahmins respond. BRILLIANT. http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/prime- ... ory/317398 …

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 16 Apr 2014 17:58

negi wrote:^ sir sasura Rashtrakavi Vishwas ke sath vishwaas-ghaat ho gaya ka ?

It is not clear what shape Kumar Bitchwas will be in after the election, but he will likely not be living in Amethi. Maybe it is time for Bollywood to match Hollywood with a film series "Rahul and Kumar". There is one joker named Kalpen Modi in USA (ironic name) who played Kumar, I think Bitchwas would do better.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 18:05

Sanku wrote: Lets not get carried away.

If BJP gets 190 or less, that means Modi did not really effect the results. That is all. But that wont happen.

Sir, why dont you just say openly that even LKA/SS would have managed 35+ seats in UP, managed to breakaway from JDU in bihar and still managed 25 odd seats, Managed 5 seats in Haryana and a whopping 7/7 in delhi and got BJP to 190. If that is what you think, then what can i say. Without Namo BJP would have floundered in all these states. If they reach 190 (and that is all they will reach IMO), it is solely due to modi. Why dont you be precise and tell me if without Modi BJP had any chance of pulling close to 35-40 seats in UP??

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 16 Apr 2014 18:28

harbans wrote:IB4TL poll says NDA will be 396, BJP 256. As i mentioned earlier INC at All India figure of 66 will not have as many seats as what BJP will get in UP+ Bihar. Actually INC will bag just a few more seats all over India as BJP will bag in UP alone. Modi is only a regional leader, Rahul Ji is not just a national figure but international too. Manish Tiwari, Renuka, Diggy can you come back again on that?

Some link please on the numbers you posted?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 18:28

Sanku wrote:Lets not get carried away.

If BJP gets 190 or less, that means Modi did not really effect the results. That is all. But that wont happen.

If LKA just managed 10 seats in UP in 2009, what factors would have enabled BJP to gain any more this time without NaMo. Any anger against SP would have meant, people would have gone to BSP and not BJP.

Nor there would have been a comeback in Rajasthan.

In Karnataka, BJP would have further sunk, especially without BS Yeddyurappa and B. Sreeramulu. Most probably JD(S) would have taken the lead as the main opposition party.

In Odisha, any revival of BJP is due to NaMo only. Without NaMo it would have been a big zero.

In Tamil Nadu there would have been no NDA alliance and BJP would have got a big zero.

Even in Bihar, anti-incumbency could have hit BJP and JD(U) assuming they would have been still going together.

In Punjab, NDA is getting hit anyway, but without NaMo it would have been a Congress sweep.

In MH, NDA could have hold onto their seats, but not gained any more.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 18:33

muraliravi wrote:
Sanku wrote: Lets not get carried away.

If BJP gets 190 or less, that means Modi did not really effect the results. That is all. But that wont happen.
Sir, why dont you just say openly

Huh, I am openly saying what I am saying. In your obsession with people you forget that large parties have their own dynamics.

If Pappu can get 120 seats according to you, should we take Pappu to be great ? Or just the fact Congress has a working organization despite him

You frown on EVM types CTs and I agree -- similarly please dont buy into SS/LKA/D41.321 and look at real happenings.

NaMo needs to deliver > 190 for BJP (I am kinder than Chaankya san who want 300 for BJP+) . I am sure he will. If 210-220 is not a number NaMo gets, we have to accept that the NaMo wave did not translate to votes.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 16 Apr 2014 18:40

Swamy G: http://www.ibtl.in/news/exclusive/2128/ ... -poll-2014

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 18:43

Sanku wrote:
Huh, I am openly saying what I am saying. In your obsession with people you forget that large parties have their own dynamics.

If Pappu can get 120 seats according to you, should we take Pappu to be great ? Or just the fact Congress has a working organization despite him

You frown on EVM types CTs and I agree -- similarly please dont buy into SS/LKA/D41.321 and look at real happenings.

NaMo needs to deliver > 190 for BJP (I am kinder than Chaankya san who want 300 for BJP+) . I am sure he will. If 210-220 is not a number NaMo gets, we have to accept that the NaMo wave did not translate to votes.

Bad logic, You know better than that. Cong gets votes irrespective of candidate, it is vested interest/entitlement/minority vote that will anyway come to them. I estimate 120 for congress based on that, it has nothing to do with pappu.

If you want to use my 190 number for BJP to beat me up, then also use my 150 number for BJP is Namo was not the PM nominee, you cant have it both ways. Anyway no point arguing with you when you cannot answer me point blank as to how many seats LKA as PM nominee would have fetched BJP in UP. After all you rooted for LKA as pm nominee in 2014.

I am not buying into any theory, look at my posts, i never said D4 is sabotaging Namo. All i am saying is that without Namo in helm, no way BJP would have crossed 150. You dont want to explain what BJP has done in UP until 2012 (we all saw the flop show in 2012 assembly). All your are doing is what MSM is doing, anything below 200, no modi wave. Answer state by state, dont play with generic overalls.

BTW i have no obsession with people, Namo does not mean Modi alone, it means, Modi, amit shah, lakshmikant bajpai et al.. it is whole host of people who actually work instead of the BJP cabal until 2012 which did nothing from 2004.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Apr 2014 18:45

Sanku, I see you are lapsing into LKA+SS sulking mode. Can you wait till elections are over and not derail this thread?

Thanks,
ramana

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 16 Apr 2014 18:46

What's the exact number below which or equal means Advani led BJP's expected number?
Above that number of course means due to NaMo.

I'm of the opinion LohPurush led charge would not yield more than 80. Him and none in his coterie, except Jaitley, can put together a coherent paragraph in public appearances.

Saw Jaitley speaking last year or so, in a busy intersection, right below our window. Speech was good, but not good enough to rally cadre.

PS: I see MR being charitable with 150 being the score with LohPurush captainship. Not being charitable...its just wet dream.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 16 Apr 2014 18:48

If Advani was leading BJP this time I would have voted NOTA. Enough said.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 18:54

SRoy wrote:What's the exact number below which or equal means Advani led BJP's expected number?
Above that number of course means due to NaMo.

I'm of the opinion LohPurush led charge would not yield more than 80. Him and none in his coterie, except Jaitley, can put together a coherent paragraph in public appearances.

Saw Jaitley speaking last year or so, in a busy intersection, right below our window. Speech was good, but not good enough to rally cadre.

PS: I see MR being charitable with 150 being the score with LohPurush captainship. Not being charitable...its just wet dream.

Numbers if LKA was PM Nominee

JK-0
HP-2
PB-2
UTT-4
Haryana -1
Delhi - 2
UP-15
Bihar -8(Alliance with Nitish would have been intact but both would have suffered a minor dent simply becos this time cong-rjd alliance is there unlike 2009)
JH - 5
WB-0
Assam-2
Orissa -0
AP/TG/TN/Kerala-0
Karnataka -4 (no yeddy or sriramalu)
MH-12 (MNS would have contested against BJP also, it is his personal relationship with Namo that made him only put up candidates against SS alone)
MP-23
CG-8
RJ-20
Goa-1
UT's-2
GJ-15 (Same that they got last time)

Thats 126 for you Sanku Sir

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 16 Apr 2014 19:00

Pawan Kalyan is currently campaigning for BJP in karnataka. It seems he is drawing huge crowds compared to his brother Chiranjeevi who is campaigning for Congress. I wonder how much effect he will have on the over all number of votes for BJP. I think he will only have a marginal effect.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/pawan ... -karnataka

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 16 Apr 2014 19:00

I can list 10-15 names that I know in my inner circle who would have voted AAP if not for Modi. And I think my vote would have gone there as well, since AK wouldn't have sided openly with Muslims if it was not Modi on the other side.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 16 Apr 2014 19:07

muraliravi ji,

Would Rajasthan still have given 20 to BJP without NaMo? I have my doubts!