Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 16 Apr 2014 19:14

Without NaMo, it is safe to say max of 150 for BJP based on anti-UPA wave and past BJP tallies (range 130 to 150). Anything above 150 is due to NaMo and the catalytic effects on BJP (so there is a direct effect of NaMo on votes and an indirect effect on BJP organization via NaMo). If NDA+ reach near 300 it means that NaMo has effectively doubled their tally, compared to say someone like LKA. If NDA+ reach 250, still it is a big effect of 100 extra seats.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 19:15

RajeshA wrote:muraliravi ji,

Would Rajasthan still have given 20 to BJP without NaMo? I have my doubts!

Rajesh ji,

Lets give the benefit of doubt, or else there will be allegations from others that we are gifting Vasundhara's effort to Namo (which is partially true also). The state always sees swings every 5 years and even with LKA BJP would have lapped up a good chunk of seats there.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 16 Apr 2014 19:16

Without NaMo the following is doubtful.
RJ-20
MP-23
CG-8 (The way they scrapped through in Assembly polls despite NaMo's campaign)

Taking MR's list best figures would be in range of 100 - 110, keeping 2009 conditions as baseline.

Apply the negative votes due to SS/Ad/MMJ nuisance and infighting their way of campaigning (last time they went for personal hits against Sonia and got thrashed).
Apply more negative votes due to AAP which has been largely blown to bits by NaMo's performance and governance driven persona.

So, the tally will come down to double digits.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 16 Apr 2014 19:18

Singha wrote:afaik, all ITvity and Manufacturing cos are holiday tomorrow in blr to accomodate voting except very minimal business critical support functions, and these too will have shifts to let people get half the day to vote.

shops will also likely remain mostly closed in the day...

Told my India teams to go out and VOTE!

They got the message

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 19:23

Anyway, I will stop Namo gun gaan now and move on to Namo Bashing.

1. Namo met actor Joseph Vijay (not many people know that is a x-tian) in Tamil Nadu. Let me be clear, I have no issues with Namo meeting people of any faith, but I have issues when he meets people without checking their background. Joseph Vijay tried to join DMK, then ADMK and was kicked out by both parties even before he joined. There are some activities that he does (best if not discussed here, people from TN will know) which are as EJ (literally anti-national) as it gets. So this is just another Sabir Ali moment (just that people dont know that much about Joseph EJ Vijay)

2. I will compile a video today and host it on youtube and provide access to only BRfites. It should be short. I will not release it to public until all phases of polling are over since I dont want to spoil BJP's chances (though even if it goes viral, I am a nobody and I doubt even if it will dent BJP by .00001%, but why take a chance). But I will spend money and promote that video like crazy after the results if Namo is PM to ensure that certain objectives are met.

I will try and get this done asap, since I will be leaving for chennai soon and do my duty of voting on the 24th for L Ganesan in Chennai South.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Apr 2014 19:24

Ok Enough of what if musings. Lets get back to election news.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 19:50

http://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/revo ... a-bjp.html

Revolt in NCP: Cong may lose Konkan to Sena-BJP

In a development that came as a boost to the Opposition Shiv Sena-BJP alliance, rebel NCP leader Deepak Kesarkar on Monday exhorted his supporters to “defeat” senior Maharashtra’s Congress Minister’s son and party’s official nominee from Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg constituency Nilesh Rane in the April 17 Lok Sabha polls.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 19:52

http://www.dailypioneer.com/nation/namo ... attle.html

NaMo factor, polarisation pivotal to Jehanabad battle

On Jehanabad seat, the upper caste Bhumihar and backward caste Yadavs have been deciding future of their leaders but this time there are two Bhumihar candidates in the fray against one Yadav strongman. The contest is primarily between Arun Kumar of Rashtriya Lok Samata Party (RLSP), Anil Kumar Sharma of the ruling JD(U) and Surendra Prasad Yadav of RJD. Arun Kumar’s party is contesting the Lok Sabha poll in alliance with the BJP.

Though, with the NaMo factor lubricating the poll pattern in Jehanabad, a large number of upper caste Bhumihars are supporting Arun Kumar but his caste rival Anil Sharma, a prominent businessman, too is campaigning hard to get support from his caste as well as from party’s core support base of Mahadalits and EBC vote.

The RJD candidate Surendra Yadav, however, is unanimous choice for his caste vote but what makes his passage smooth is en bloc support of the Muslims in the constituency for whom, Narendra Modi is the biggest threat and he should be stopped by supporting RJD-Congress candidate.

JDU may split BJP vote here to gift seat to Lalu

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 19:57

http://www.gossipguru.in/commotion-in-the-media-world

At a time when there will be a change of guard for Indian leadership, a lot of movement is also going to happen in the media. Arnab Goswami’s contract with Times Now is set to end this November and a brand in himself, Goswami is now exploring better opportunities for himself. He is constantly in touch with two Sharmas – one Rajat Sharma of India TV, and the other is the owner of India News and News X Vinod Sharma. Rajat Sharma wants to start an English news channel from India TV along with Arnab, in which Arnab may have a 25-30 per cent stake. Rajat and Arnab’s talks have reached the final level. Indian Express’ editor Shekhar Gupta had a meeting with Narendra Modi and it is being said that Modi talked tough with Gupta on Express’ stance on the anti-BJP and anti-Modi campaign. Sources reveal that matters came to such a head that the Express group’s owner Vivek Goenka had to call up Modi and clarify matters. In any case, Shekhar Gupta’s exit from Express is final now and Gupta is looking for newer avenues. For this, he is in talks with Mukesh Ambani and he is trying to get in to the Independent Media Trust that controls ETV and TV18. But there are several hurdles for Gupta there. Group Editor of CNN-IBN Rajdeep Sardesai’s contract with the media group ends in October and the channel does not seem keen on renewing the contract. Thus, Rajdeep, too, is looking for another place for himself and it is being said that he is in talks with Naveen Jindal, who has recently re-launched Focus channel in a new avatar. In the same way, India Today is looking for a new editor. All in all, the national media is looking at times that are a-changing.

Why is Ambani accommodating Shekar Dupatta???

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 20:00

http://www.gossipguru.in/satpals-seat

Satpal’s seat

A new polarisation is in the offing in Uttarakhand. The BJP seems to have an upper hand in all the five Lok Sabha seats there. Bhuvan Chandra Khanduri, Ramesh Pokhriyal Nishank and Bhagat Singh Koshiyari have got an edge over their closest competitors. At the same time, Dehradoon is an open playing field for Satpal Maharaj because all these three aspirants for the chief minister’s post – Khanduri, Koshiyari and Nishank – have been handed over the Delhi tickets. While including him into the BJP, the party high command had assured Satpal Maharaj that he will be made Uttarakhand chief minister after the Lok Sabha elections. Half-a-dozen Congress MLA are ready to leave the party and join the BJP to be with Satpal Maharaj.

Another stupid move from BJP if there is any truth to this

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 16 Apr 2014 20:05

Dilbu wrote:It is disgusting to see such a list being published. All of them are our brave soldiers. India will for ever be proud of them. There is no need to dig up the details and put it on a list even if to prove the turd azam khan wrong. Just ignore shuch scum and crush them with iron hand once team NaMo comes to power.

We need war memorials for our martyrs. All indo pak wars, indo cina war, soldiers who died fighting maoists, soldiers who died fighting ltte, soldiers who died during 26/11, soldiers who have given lives under UN peacekeepers. Its the minimum we can do for our heros.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 20:18

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 1h

Congi stooges posted as governors by 10JP are rushing to 10JP and want to quit even before new govt comes in.. SCARED bunch.. @Timesnow

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 16 Apr 2014 20:55

Paul wrote:AAP would have been the winner had NaMo not been the PM ummidwar

AAP wouldn't have been created if NaMo wasn't in picture.

kancha · Post by **kancha** » 16 Apr 2014 20:57

panduranghari wrote:
Dilbu wrote:It is disgusting to see such a list being published. All of them are our brave soldiers. India will for ever be proud of them. There is no need to dig up the details and put it on a list even if to prove the turd azam khan wrong. Just ignore shuch scum and crush them with iron hand once team NaMo comes to power.
We need war memorials for our martyrs. All indo pak wars, indo cina war, soldiers who died fighting maoists, soldiers who died fighting ltte, soldiers who died during 26/11, soldiers who have given lives under UN peacekeepers. Its the minimum we can do for our heros.

There seems something wrong with the list. Major Sonam Wangchuk is still alive. Could it just be one of the awardees? In any case, the point is moot. Such lists will only add fuel to fire by doing a headcount based on religion, exactly what the jokers attempted once. JMTs

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 16 Apr 2014 21:00

Odds stacked against Narayan Rane's son Nilesh in his re-election bid as the local NCP unit has completely rebelled against him and is supporting the NDA candidate. Earlier, nobody could touch the Rane family's power in the Konkan coastline.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... back-sena/

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 16 Apr 2014 21:01

muraliravi wrote:
Numbers if LKA was PM Nominee

Thats 126 for you Sanku Sir

It's hard to believe the Modi wave only adds 70 seats to that tally. I must say your estimates are way too conservative. Still, they are a useful lower bound.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 16 Apr 2014 21:08

Dhirubhai's rise is attributed to backing of Gandhi family specially against the Parsi cabal led by Wadias. The Ambani's have been close to INC ever since. Although after Anil parted ways he jumped over to the SP, Mukesh remained with INC. However, the BJP could not be dislodged in Gujrat where many of his industries are located and Modi had a long reign. So he maintained good relations with Modi. However, he may still be an INC man. He keeps good relations with Modi for business purposes.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 16 Apr 2014 21:15

Sanku wrote: Huh, I am openl saying what I am saying. In your obsession with people you forget that large parties have their own dynamics.

If Pappu can get 120 seats according to you, should we take Pappu to be great ? Or just the fact Congress has a working organization despite him

You frown on EVM types CTs and I agree -- similarly please dont buy into SS/LKA/D41.321 and look at real happenings.

NaMo needs to deliver > 190 for BJP (I am kinder than Chaankya san who want 300 for BJP+) . I am sure he will. If 210-220 is not a number NaMo gets, we have to accept that the NaMo wave did not translate to votes.

NDA would have been a big zero under LKA. He was the loyal opposition (like INC in CPI-M ruled WB) - with his ideological flip-flops and lack of vision he would have neither appealed to the middle class nor enthused the cadre. Opinion polls show addition of only 30-40 seats to 2009 tally when he was in the running. If the NDA reaches simple majority it is due to Modi. Your estimate of 190 under LKA is an overestimate.

James B · Post by **James B** » 16 Apr 2014 21:18

What!!! No talk about NaMo's interview to ANI?.

Best interview of NaMo so far covering majority of crucial issues (Elections, 2002, Vadra, Pak, NFU, US Visa etc). All most all news channels were showing the interview at prime time. It will be soon uploaded on Youtube.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 21:20

vnmshyam wrote:
Paul wrote:AAP would have been the winner had NaMo not been the PM ummidwar
AAP wouldn't have been created if NaMo wasn't in picture.

AAP was created on an anti-corruption platform to split the anti-congress vote to beat anti-incumbency. So it would have been a feature of this election even if NaMo wasn't in the picture.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 16 Apr 2014 21:21

Chandragupta wrote:I can list 10-15 names that I know in my inner circle who would have voted AAP if not for Modi. And I think my vote would have gone there as well, since AK wouldn't have sided openly with Muslims if it was not Modi on the other side.

AK is a slimy character with anarchist politics and communist economics. His siding with Islamists has nothing to do with Modi. I would anyday vote for INC than this piece of crap.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 21:53

https://twitter.com/mediacrooks/status/ ... 3924054016

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 54m

Beautifully said "Javed wants to build their Taj Mahal on our graves" -- Zafar Sareshwala.. I called them "Scavengers" .. @ibnlive

https://twitter.com/ANI_news/status/456358500600250368

ANI ‏@ANI_news 7h

Some ppl tell me BJP has given tickets to many outsiders. I would like to tell them that there is only one outsider,Sonia Gandhi-Ramdev

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 22:08

ramana wrote:Sanku, I see you are lapsing into LKA+SS sulking mode. Can you wait till elections are over and not derail this thread?

Thanks,
ramana

Au contrarie, I am saying that there is no need to set the bar so low as is being set.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 22:14

muraliravi wrote: Thats 126 for you Sanku Sir

190 wont cut it for BJP. Trying to blame SS/LKA/D4 and other such mythical creature and EVM (not you but in general) are only attempts to rationalize.

190 is a loss. Not a victory. It can not be made to look any other way by claims that some one else as face would have it lower. The issue here is not NaMo or even BJP, but getting India a good govt, and that needs a higher number, that is all that there is to it.

And with all due respects, I will take the public opinion poll numbers in 2013 mid as baseline.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 22:16

pankajs wrote:
vnmshyam wrote: AAP wouldn't have been created if NaMo wasn't in picture.
AAP was created on an anti-corruption platform to split the anti-congress vote to beat anti-incumbency. So it would have been a feature of this election even if NaMo wasn't in the picture.

I agree, AAP was activated before it was clear to the world at large (although internal alignments were already there) -- that NaMo would be projected as the face.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 22:21

Sanku wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Thats 126 for you Sanku Sir
190 wont cut it for BJP. Trying to blame SS/LKA/D4 and other such mythical creature and EVM (not you but in general) are only attempts to rationalize.

190 is a loss. Not a victory. It can not be made to look any other way by claims that some one else as face would have it lower. The issue here is not NaMo or even BJP, but getting India a good govt, and that needs a higher number, that is all that there is to it.

And with all due respects, I will take the public opinion poll numbers in 2013 mid as baseline.

Sir with all due respect, BJP getting 185-190 is my estimate, they may well get more. I am not at all blaming anyone for them getting 190. IMHO, thats the best they can do, i mean they have hardly done anything to expand geographically in the last 10 years that 200+ will be a big bonus. Remember, all the gung ho 200+ numbers depend on one gold mine called UP which is known to deceive psephologists always.

BTW which survey in mid 2013 was giving BJP 190+ seats??

Here is the CSDS survey in July 2013 when Modi was already declared campaign Chief (chalo lets assume that would be BJP without Modi as PM nominee)

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/poll-tracker ... 37-64.html

In the UPA, the Congress will bag 131-139 seats while its allies will only win just 15-21 seats. It is almost a similar situation in the NDA though the BJP is expected to do much better than the Congress. The BJP may end up with 156-164 seats and its partners could bring another 13-19 MPs.

If you assume that as baseline, Modi has provided the following boost

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/national-tra ... 10-81.html

The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats on its own. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

So Modi gives a boost of approx 50 seats. If you go by surveys. Now if just revise the baseline estimate and make it pessimistic like 185-190 instead of 206-218, why would you not subtract the same 50 seats from that baseline to your base. A

Anyway thats the last from me.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 22:22

Ramdev to campaign for modi in Vadodara, CON complains

Raghunath AS ‏@asraghunath 2h

Modi ki Shaan bade; Congress ki Jaan Jale! #Vadodara http://epaper.indianexpress.com/c/2714685

Raghunath AS @asraghunath · 2h

Jogi's many dummies and a daughter-in-law! http://epaper.indianexpress.com/c/2714688

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 16 Apr 2014 22:33

https://twitter.com/imstyleguru/status/ ... 6837655553

Chai Wala™ ‏@imstyleguru 6h

@sarkar_swati Pls. MT: Communal violence statistics of India. Let's see who actually is communal in real terms. pic.twitter.com/sQeg6X1Xqh

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 16 Apr 2014 22:39

muraliravi wrote: Remember, all the gung ho 200+ numbers depend on one gold mine called UP which is known to deceive psephologists always. .

Well you are our Star Resident psephologist here. No?

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 16 Apr 2014 22:42

also Bihar where number can vary between 15 to 30 for NDA!!

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 22:43

chaanakya wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Remember, all the gung ho 200+ numbers depend on one gold mine called UP which is known to deceive psephologists always. .
Well you are our Star Resident psephologist here. No?

Sir if that was a remark out of sarcasm, I am not sure what to say, but if it was compliment, I dont deserve that, I am just an avid data collector who believes numbers more than anything else.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 16 Apr 2014 22:44

chaanakya are you mocking?

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 16 Apr 2014 22:48

My guess is
upa 160 with congress getting 140
Nda 220 with bjp getting 185

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 16 Apr 2014 22:52

Sanku wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Thats 126 for you Sanku Sir
190 wont cut it for BJP. Trying to blame SS/LKA/D4 and other such mythical creature and EVM (not you but in general) are only attempts to rationalize.

190 is a loss. Not a victory. It can not be made to look any other way by claims that some one else as face would have it lower. The issue here is not NaMo or even BJP, but getting India a good govt, and that needs a higher number, that is all that there is to it.

And with all due respects, I will take the public opinion poll numbers in 2013 mid as baseline.

But Muraliravi isn't considering Public Opinion number for his number of 190 (they are much higher). He has done his own calculations based on the fact that Public Opinion does not necessarily translate into votes. If you have to compare Muraliravi's figure now (190) with those before NaMo's candidature, compare it with his own estimates back then, which were very low, not inflated Public Opinion figures.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 16 Apr 2014 22:56

For what it is worth, I will say I agree more or less with MuraliRavi-ji. My own estimates are very close to his. I estimate the BJP ~195, and the Congress ~100. Anything they get beyond this is bonus for both of them.

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 16 Apr 2014 22:56

TDP-BJP alliance breaks..per CNN-IBN

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 16 Apr 2014 22:58

Is the 5forty3.in website down? It doesn't seem to be loading.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 16 Apr 2014 23:01

muraliravi wrote:
Sanku wrote: 190 is a loss. Not a victory. It can not be made to look any other way by claims that some one else as face would have it lower. The issue here is not NaMo or even BJP, but getting India a good govt, and that needs a higher number, that is all that there is to it.

And with all due respects, I will take the public opinion poll numbers in 2013 mid as baseline.

Here is the CSDS survey in July 2013 when Modi was already declared campaign Chief (chalo lets assume that would be BJP without Modi as PM nominee)

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/poll-tracker ... 37-64.html

In the UPA, the Congress will bag 131-139 seats while its allies will only win just 15-21 seats. It is almost a similar situation in the NDA though the BJP is expected to do much better than the Congress. The BJP may end up with 156-164 seats and its partners could bring another 13-19 MPs.

If you assume that as baseline, Modi has provided the following boost

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/national-tra ... 10-81.html

The BJP is likely to cross 200 seats mark for the first time in its history by bagging 206-218 Lok Sabha seats on its own. The lowest count for the Congress was 114 seats in 1999 and the highest for the BJP is 182 seats in 1998 and 1999 under the leadership of Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Muraliravi ji, that is exactly what I am saying. 165 (175 is the number I took) --> 225 is the figure I am holding to. So I am saying that I accept the 165-175 as base, and expect NaMo to add 50.

I understand your baseline was lower, but I disagree with that, most politely. Thus 190 is not good enough, either from
1) The base line I think is more appropriate
2) What is needed for a meaningful NaMo govt not hobbled by Jaya and/or Naveen.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 23:03

prasannasimha wrote:Is the 5forty3.in website down? It doesn't seem to be loading.

Yes website down, i hope exit polls ban karne ke chakkar mein iska website band tho nahi kardiya??

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 16 Apr 2014 23:04

Sanku Sir,

For what we have now, I will even take a wobbly govt by Modi. Lets see what happens.