General Elections 2014- Transition of power & World Reaction

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 17 Apr 2014 20:36

present an account of votes recorded

What exactly is that, I wonder: as list of voters who voted, and time when they voted? How do they identify voters - by name or by Aaadhar Numbaar?

IOW, the principle of Atom Conservation is used:
Sigma(i=1 to n)Ni showing number Ni of votes received by each candidate + Candidate InvalidVote = N, the total number of voters who appeared at polling booth and got the ink on their fingers. But surely there must be ~ 3 percent who come inside the booth and don't press any button, just try to see if there is anything there to take home as a souvenir - just get scared by it all and decide that it's all too complicated, too much trouble, my vote doesn't count anyway, the System is All Thieves etc. So Atom Conservation will not give exactly count, just like in the case of Enn Pee Tee Inspectors doing counts of radioactive atoms at nuclear facilities. E.G., Laloo ki beti appears to have vented against an EVM.

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 17 Apr 2014 21:03

^^My mom had worked as a polling officer for 4 elections in the past, decades ago well before EVM days. But I would expect the principles to remain same. There are agents from each political party (competing in the constituency) present in the polling booth. Every one of them is given a voter list eligible for voting in that polling booth. As each voter, proves their credential using a ration card (now other documents) and goes to vote, their name is announced aloud. All the agents make a mark in their list (strike it or add a sign next to it etc). The polling officer or their assistant does the same. (I believe the polling officer has to sign their name against each voter who cast their vote. My memory is vague here). At the end of the day, the polling officer makes a tally of the number of votes recorded using this list and announces it to all the agents. They compare the tally that they have on their list and can either dispute it or agree with it. That gives you the total number of votes polled in that booth. They can also identify who voted and who didn't using the official voters list that the polling officer is controlling (signing on).

Regarding people who are not pressing the button, I wonder, if the polling officer and the party agents can find out if a button was pressed from outside. Anyone clued in on EVMs can throw some light on this.

My mom had mentioned that in one of the elections, at the end of the day, all the agents and the workers in the polling center (school) had left as soon as the polls closed, and she was waiting alone for the EC vehicle to come and collect the ballot box. There was only one policeman outside for security. My dad who was waiting outside with a Hercules bicycle for conveyance, was not allowed inside the school as per rules. Finally, the van came well past midnight to collect the ballot box and the documents. Good old days!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Apr 2014 21:23

UlanBatori wrote:What has been poking my curiosity is the long delay between polling and announcing results. What happens to the EVMs and the data inside them, during this period? "Counting" should be as simple as downloading one file of numbers, which may be updated every time a vote is cast, hain? So in principle, someone SHOULD be getting a near-live update, and record that, so that later the results should make sense (i.e., live record shows Ulan Batori getting 15 votes total by 5:35pm, but post-poll count shows 15,000,237.34 votes at 7pm - that should trigger some curiosity?) But if there are live updates (someone at this point should know quite clearly how many seats each party is projected to get), then there must be IMMENSE pressure to reveal that - one can make gazillions on the stock market, or plan coup/destabilization operations/ applying for asylum if not betting with any idea of that.

How do they deal with this? Keeping all EVM "sealed" until counting Officially Starts, seems to be a recipe for excitement. Also, is the "printed paper vote record" thing mandated by the Supreme Court in response to SS' petition, being implemented?

The EVMs are taken under armed guard from each polling booth and stowed at a designated counting center under armed guard again.The printed record thing was implemented for the first time in Bangalore south only - where I voted. My wife and daughter were boothnaths today - ie party reps at a polling booth.

Each polling booth has one EVM + 4 Election commission officials. In addition there are representatives from every party - designated party members who are nominated by each party (boothnaths). Each of these party people has a complete voter list for that polling booth. As each voter arrives and his id checked. Valid id are voter id card, passport, drivers licence, aadhar card, PAN card and a couple of other things. Did not check full list to see if Bangladesh/Pakistan passports are accepted. Each party rep/boothnath notes that the voter has voted - although the actual button pressing is the last step. The chief officer waits for all voters to finish voting or 6 PM (on the EVM clock). He then confirms from every party rep that there are no voters remaining and that the time to close voting has passed. he then switches off the machine in full view of all the party boothnaths. All the reps then sign on a card on the machine itself after which the machine is sealed in a box (ordinary wax seal like your dad used to send you parcels in college) and the same officials and reps sign again on a similar card attached to the sealed box. After that the boxes are sent for storage until counting day. On that day the seals are broken in the presence of reps from every party and the machine powered up and connected to a iElectrographonemometronic schnablitzer that downloads the data and feeds directly to Burqa Butt and Ruddy<beep> Sardesai

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 17 Apr 2014 21:30

rgsrini wrote: My mom had mentioned that in one of the elections, at the end of the day, all the agents and the workers in the polling center (school) had left as soon as the polls closed, and she was waiting alone for the EC vehicle to come and collect the ballot box. There was only one policeman outside for security. My dad who was waiting outside with a Hercules bicycle for conveyance, was not allowed inside the school as per rules. Finally, the van came well past midnight to collect the ballot box and the documents. Good old days!

It's a thankless task. Party boothnaths at least can choose to be present at a nearby booth and simply come in at 7 and leave an hour or so after voting ends. election commission people like your mom have to be in the booth for a day or two in advance and on polling day they come in early and leave very late - often coming from very far away.

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 17 Apr 2014 22:20

Shivji. Absolutely! My mom is very proud of the small part she played in the elections. Always bring a smile and a sense of satisfaction to her. Someone called the Indian Elections as the greatest human management exercise in history. Thanks to the 10s of 1000s of unnamed SDRE worker bees who is making every elections possible.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 17 Apr 2014 22:44

UlanBatori wrote:
present an account of votes recorded
What exactly is that, I wonder: as list of voters who voted, and time when they voted? How do they identify voters - by name or by Aaadhar Numbaar?

No , it is just total number of votes cast as per list maintained at PS by Presiding Officer., Total Male, total female, Totals others, and Total ECD votes. This is based on number of person who signed the Register and voted. This will be tallied at the time of counting when Control Unit , which keeps record of voting, is opened and sequence wise votes per candidtes cast is flashed a after serial number of CU and BU are flashed. Lastly total is flashed. This should match with the total given to Boothnaths and a copy is also sent to Returning Officer.
Sequence of LED flash is like this

1234567 ( BU)
1234567 (CU)
0700 (Poll Open time)
2000 (Poll close time) generally it is 1800 but actual close will be after all persons in queue, who are given token, have voted. This is noted in paper form by presiding officer along with total votes etc cast.
43 (total votes cast)
(Sl No of Candidate No of Votes cast)
1 10
2 7
3 9
4 3
5 8
NOTA 6

After each display there is a long beep. Probably for psychological effect.

CU is having battery which lasts for one year and data is kept safe. After counting and acceptance of data , signed by counting agents of candidates, EVM gets recycled for next election. If there is no election petition for six months paper records are destroyed.
20 ( total votes cast

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 23:11

>> Regarding people who are not pressing the button, I wonder, if the polling officer and the party agents can find out if a button was pressed from outside. Anyone clued in on EVMs can throw some light on this.

yes. IIRC it made a beep when a vote was cast so that polling officials knew when to shoo you out of the room.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 17 Apr 2014 23:19

The chief officer waits for all voters to finish voting or 6 PM (on the EVM clock).

That was my other pooch and chanakya has given an encouraging answer. So the cut off is that one got a Token from the polling aphsar/agint. IOW, everyone who is already in line at 6PM gets a token, I presume?

Reason I ask is because there were reports of "long lines still at closing time" which seemed terrible, since it takes longer (I think) to use the single EVM at a booth, than the paper vote system where 4 ppl could be voting simultaneously. I saw that the limit was 1500 voters per booth.

But the catch in the system then is still the ink mark system. If you figure out how to get that off, and you have perfectly valid set(s) of documents, one could exercise one's democratic rights early and often, hain?

At Booth A I use my ration card.
At Booth B I use my PAN card
At Booth C I use my Aaadhar card.
At Booth D I use my Driving License.
At Booth E I use my Indian Passport.
At Booth F I use my Pakistani Passport.
At Booth G I use my BD Passport.
At Booth H I use my ration card again and so on, limited only by the length of the queues at each Booth.

Because, the ppl at each booth check me against a PAPER LIST, and they remember faces. But how do the people at another booth know that I have already voted, except from the ink mark? There is no online/network updating. And SURELY there must be a chemical to get that off fast?

Or am I on the rolls ONLY at one booth?

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Apr 2014 23:21

In old days there party agents could also challenge the voter identity by depositing 5 rs with the polling officer. If the voter is unable to prove she is the person she is claiming to be she will not be allowed to vote. Otherwise the agent forfeits the money. Voter lists are prepared by people going from house to house in rural areas as there were no IDs. Parties used to choose agents who know all the people in the group of villages. some parties would not send their agents to everyplace - either they do not gave the resources are not contesting or simply over stretched. These are the places where large scale rigging (if they are able to coopt the polling officer) would take place. Coopting the polling officer would gave full spectrum inducements including threats to the person and family. But most of the polling officers are given respect even in the remotest of the villages. Sarpanh or the head of the village or a squire would provide lodging and food. Rigging is usually limited to places where the ruling party was able to place a pliant polling officer and the local opposing party agents have been gotten to through monetary and govt, contract inducements. It was not a very big problem and in most cases would not have changed the outcome as drastically as one would hear in the press (MSM or the amnesty international or transparency intl. or whatever the new western propaganda machine s called).

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 17 Apr 2014 23:27

UB ji: urban India is only about 30% - rest is rural where everybody knows who is voting at which booth if there are more than one. Also when one votes at one booth (even if he figures out how to get rid of the mark - which used to be easy in the past) he would not be able to pass off at the other booth close by as agents would recognize the person and agent of the party opposing the party he is most likely vote for would create a ruckus.

saip · Post by **saip** » 17 Apr 2014 23:31

Though it is a thankless job most often it is not a job that you can avoid if you are in Govt service. You are drafted if you are a Govt 'servant'. No choice there. If the place where the booth is not a violent place it will not cause much of a problem and normally the boxes are collected promptly without much delay. But then if you are required to work in far out places then you are on your own guarding the boxes.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 17 Apr 2014 23:33

chaanakya wrote:When This news item is mentioned on ToiLet , how can this be derailment.

Perhaps the irony of asserting validity while simultaneously calling the source 'Toilet' doesn't strike you ?

Elsewhere in this forum, we summarily disregard news because the source is ToI. They have a well established reputation recently of turning into a sensationalist tabloid.

This thread celebrates the Indian general elections. It is NOT meant to serve as a continuation of the EVM magic tinfoil hat brigade thread. Further, such conspiracy theory mongers sitting at computers spinning theories insult an entire cadre of hundreds of thousands (millions ?) across political parties by presuming that extensive booth level party presence cannot cross-reference their own estimates against final polling numbers and call out fraud, even after the use of EVMs over 3 general elections, where a cumulative total of 2 billion votes would have been recorded, plus all the local elections - all totalling which would add to more than half the world's living population. All because their chosen party was not elected despite their fervent hopes.

The simple fact is that EVERY form of vote recording is fallible. Paper, EVM, online, whatever. Out of 1.7 million machines, there will be a finite failure rate. Some will malfunction immediately, some will malfunction despite working well in tests and mock trials. This thread celebrate the fact that a developing country has had so much success using such a technology in such a widespread and generally accepted manner. Please don't bring your own bitterness about past election results to impugn the institutions that serve the functioning of our democratic system - institutions that every party, despite moaning, still adheres to in these elections. If they can follow and respect those institutions, so can you.

Those who feel strongly about such manipulation and insist on asserting it, are welcome to find another place to vent. Not here. People have already been warned for derailed the other elections threads, and further incidents will earn a ban until at least May 16.

saip · Post by **saip** » 17 Apr 2014 23:40

UB, as far as I know you can only vote at one booth and if your name is ticked off even wrongly you are out of luck. You can not vote in regular way even if there is no mark on your finger. There used to be some special procedure for allowing these voters if someone else cast their votes.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 23:55

the only way to vote more than once is to have yourself enrolled in different constituencies, assuming one uses the real identity for all cases. in this scenario the # of votes a person can cast is limited by only his ability to appear at the booths on time.

there is no nationwide DB so far that ECI can use to x-check voter's name for duplication. which means there are people who vote in their workplace and then go home and vote again in a different phase. I'm told a national database is in the works to stop this kind of duplication.

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 18 Apr 2014 00:09

^^Aadhar with its biometric capabilities offers that possibility.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 18 Apr 2014 00:21

that was the original plan but NN's enthusiasm to provide aadhar to BD's has made it lose credibility and led the SC to come down heavily on it, curtailing many of its originally intended functions.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 18 Apr 2014 01:12

UlanBatori wrote:
The chief officer waits for all voters to finish voting or 6 PM (on the EVM clock).
That was my other pooch and chanakya has given an encouraging answer. So the cut off is that one got a Token from the polling aphsar/agint. IOW, everyone who is already in line at 6PM gets a token, I presume?

Reason I ask is because there were reports of "long lines still at closing time" which seemed terrible, since it takes longer (I think) to use the single EVM at a booth, than the paper vote system where 4 ppl could be voting simultaneously. I saw that the limit was 1500 voters per booth.

But the catch in the system then is still the ink mark system. If you figure out how to get that off, and you have perfectly valid set(s) of documents, one could exercise one's democratic rights early and often, hain?

At Booth A I use my ration card.
At Booth B I use my PAN card
At Booth C I use my Aaadhar card.
At Booth D I use my Driving License.
At Booth E I use my Indian Passport.
At Booth F I use my Pakistani Passport.
At Booth G I use my BD Passport.
At Booth H I use my ration card again and so on, limited only by the length of the queues at each Booth.

Because, the ppl at each booth check me against a PAPER LIST, and they remember faces. But how do the people at another booth know that I have already voted, except from the ink mark? There is no online/network updating. And SURELY there must be a chemical to get that off fast?

Or am I on the rolls ONLY at one booth?

Yes, Everyone who is in the queue at 6PM at PS gets a token and allowed to vote.

Yes again , limit is 1500 per polling station give and take a few tens. EVM can take 3840 votes in memory. It retains data even without battery, rated for ten years.

Once button is pressed , it can not be pressed again unless released by Presiding Officer.

Well , if people are hell bent upon cheating the system, it can be done, EVM can not guarantee that protection. Checking is done by Polling officers and presiding officers in a Polling station. Voter can try to erase the indelible mark and go and vote in some other boot. Could be with same name , same paper of different name different paper . EVM are not connected online nor any biomatric is provided.Taking Biomatric, first the system needs to be proven, lrgl provision has to be there for privacy protection and data security, networking and software requirement and then reliability question and lastly fail safe mechanism and back up mechanis for authentication.

Besides indelible ink mark there is another check. Each voter signs on the register. If there is widespread complain of impersonation it can be verified with direct reference to the voters against their signature. But no way to know what vote he cast. It is confidential Balloting.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Apr 2014 07:53

Rahul M wrote:the only way to vote more than once is to have yourself enrolled in different constituencies, assuming one uses the real identity for all cases. in this scenario the # of votes a person can cast is limited by only his ability to appear at the booths on time.

An additional requirement is to cut off one's thumb or index finger after voting so the indelible mark placed on one's finger just before pressing the button is no longer visible.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Apr 2014 08:04

UlanBatori wrote: Because, the ppl at each booth check me against a PAPER LIST, and they remember faces. But how do the people at another booth know that I have already voted, except from the ink mark? There is no online/network updating. And SURELY there must be a chemical to get that off fast?

Or am I on the rolls ONLY at one booth?

You are on the rolls for only one booth but because of the machinations of a local BJP corporator my wife's name was put on the list of two booths. However she refused to cut her thumb off to erase the indelible ink mark so she could vote again.

Here is an image of ~~shireen mazari~~ er my left thumb from indelible ink placed before I voted but after I was identified.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 18 Apr 2014 08:06

that can be removed (the mark, not the finger

). didn't believe when I first heard until I saw it happen. won't mention what chemical was used to achieve it.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Apr 2014 08:13

Rahul M wrote:that can be removed (the mark, not the finger ). didn't believe when I first heard until I saw it happen. won't mention what chemical was used to achieve it.

Rahul no need to mention the chemical. You do need to mention that it has to be done within a particular time limit before the chemical reaction that creates a permanent mark that has permanently degraded the surface of your skin and fingernail. I suspect the time limit is in the region of a minute or so.

The mark is put on as the penultimate step before voting. So you have mark and you move on to the next official who then takes an id slip that has just been given to you by an earlier official and then you walk across to press the button and vote - the confirmation takes about 10 seconds in all and then you walk out past the guards into the waiting queue and quickly start applying your chemical.

It is possible but very difficult to get off the huge mark they deliberately out on nowadays. In the old days it used to be a small dot - now its a Shireen Mazari of a mark

On second thoughts I think it would be a good idea to mention the chemical so everyone knows and measures can be taken to stop fraud. By hiding the name - only the people who want to commit fraud will find out and keep it to themselves. I would be the first person to try out the chemical and post a video on YouTube so everyone knows - rather than keep pseudo secrets like "No photography" in temples and airports

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Apr 2014 08:20

Election Ink

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Apr 2014 17:15

my left thumb from indelible ink placed before I voted but after I was identified.

Which raises the question:
Most of the wimmens shown giving the finger to the election had the mark on their index finger. shiv shows the thumb. So this is based on gender? Presumably the teesra-ling gets it on the middle finger?

Per Wikipedia: "comes off only as the skin cells die and fall off". I am trying to remember what chemical I used fairly recently that had exactly that property. Thumb and index finger felt very rough, as skin was coming off, despite gloves and all (gloves developed holes long b4 job was done - I should have realized that they were dissolving) - but I won't write that here - don't want to cause problems that force half the Indian electorate to use their middle finger to signal anything, thereby triggering off the huge riots that are projected to occur if "one party" wins.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 18 Apr 2014 17:40

UlanBatori wrote:
my left thumb from indelible ink placed before I voted but after I was identified.
Which raises the question:
Most of the wimmens shown giving the finger to the election had the mark on their index finger. shiv shows the thumb. So this is based on gender? Presumably the teesra-ling gets it on the middle finger?

Per Wikipedia: "comes off only as the skin cells die and fall off". I am trying to remember what chemical I used fairly recently that had exactly that property. Thumb and index finger felt very rough, as skin was coming off, despite gloves and all (gloves developed holes long b4 job was done - I should have realized that they were dissolving) - but I won't write that here - don't want to cause problems that force half the Indian electorate to use their middle finger to signal anything, thereby triggering off the huge riots that are projected to occur if "one party" wins.

Karnataka had a recent election that is why the site of marking in those states where there is a recent election has beend defined as the thumb in this election. I have been marked on the left thumb.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 18 Apr 2014 19:35

and a shock if they vote for the wrong party.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 18 Apr 2014 21:39

and credit amount to his bank account

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 18 Apr 2014 23:01

I am trying to figure out how automated is this whole process, and how foolproof the ID. Now
- the machine is an EVM.
- the proof of ID is an electronic chip in a card (Aadhar)
- there is no way for the polling aphsar to verify that the voter has not voted elsewhere, except by putting the ink on his/her finger.
- note that I could go to Polling Booth A as Abdul wearing pants and show my thumb and then go to Polling Booth B as Ayesha with a different ID wearing a salwar-kameez and show my index finger. And then go to Polling Booth C as Kiran (which could be abdul or ayesha) and show my middle finger.

So what stops a fully Internet-based voting?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 18 Apr 2014 23:31

BRF is running a Good Judgment Poll (GJP) on the 2014 elections. It reflects the collective judgment of the participants who are free to do their research and make a forecast each Thursday close of business. Only summaries are posted without details as the method makes sense only for the average of all positions. The plan is to post the summaries every week till the final results to see how close or far off the forecasts are. Will update only this post to keep the perspective and focus. The comments in italics are of the complier who has PhD in social sciences.
-----------------------

Week 1 NDA

ESTIMATE has mean=259, median=250, and SD=33. CONFIDENCE has mean=60, median=52, and SD=30. Consistent with literature, extreme estimates tend to be more confident as well. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 259) and the CONFIDENCE score is 0.64. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 267.

Week 2 NDA

ESTIMATE has mean=260, median=258, and SD=27. CONFIDENCE has mean=54, median=55, and SD=23. Consistent with literature, extreme estimates tend to be more confident as well. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 260) and the CONFIDENCE score is 0.50. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 265.

Although the set of judges isn't the same, the median NDA estimate has increased to 258 (week 2) from 250 (week 1) even as the mean remains stable. The variation of estimates has declined (SD declined to 27 in week 2 from 33 in week 1), indicating more consensus across judges about the median estimate. The median confidence has gone up slightly but not by much (52 to 55).

Week 3 NDA

ESTIMATE has mean=266, median=265, and SD=27. CONFIDENCE has mean=57, median=56, and SD=23. Consistent with literature, extreme estimates tend to be more confident as well. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 266) and the CONFIDENCE score is 0.52. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 272.

Although the set of judges isn't the same, the median NDA estimate has increased to 265 (week 3) from 258 (week 2) as has the mean estimate at 266 (week 3) from 260. So the distribution has shifted up, favoring NDA, and has also become more symmetric as the mean and median are close to each other. The variation of estimates remains the same as week 2. The median confidence has gone up slightly but not by much (55 to 56). [/
-------------------------------

Week 1 UPA

ESTIMATE has mean=108, median=105, and SD=20. CONFIDENCE has mean=63, median=68, and SD=28. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 108) and the CONFIDENCE score is modest at 0.26. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 104.

Week 2 UPA

ESTIMATE has mean=104, median=99, and SD=16. CONFIDENCE has mean=68, median=75, and SD=23. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 104) and the CONFIDENCE score is negative at -0.37. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 99.

Table 1

Compared to Week 1, UPA median has gone down to 99 from 105 and the consensus across judges has increased (SD declined to 16 from 20). The median confidence at 75 is also higher than that for week 1 where it was 68. Jingos seem a lot more confident about UPA non-performance than NDA over-performance.

Week 3 UPA

ESTIMATE has mean=113, median=109, and SD=17. CONFIDENCE has mean=63, median=66, and SD=21. The correlation between deviation of ESTIMATE from the mean (of 113) and the CONFIDENCE score is negative at -0.23. If we weigh each ESTIMATE by the CONFIDENCE, then the weighted estimate is 109.

Table 1

Compared to Week 2, UPA median has gone up to 109 from 99 and the consensus across judges has remained the same (SD is 17 vs. 16 in week 2). The median confidence at 66 is lower than 75 for week 2, but is higher than NDA estimates. Jingos seem more confident about UPA non-performance than NDA over-performance. Participation rate for UPA is dropping, from 18 folks in week 2 to 12 folks in week 3.
-------------------------
Week 5 NDA

Good Participation with 30 folks. The median reduces to 259 but the mean is now 266. If we weigh each estimate by the confidence, then the weighted mean estimate is exactly 272! Median confidence is high at 72, so there has been the expected tendency to narrow the range. If we believe in the wisdom of the crowd, then the most likely range is 260 to 280 which seems to be consistent with one stray twitter report regarding an exit poll leak.

Week 5 UPA

14 participants this week. Median remains stuck at 105. The mean is 112 and the weighted mean estimate is 110. Estimates have narrowed as the median confidence is at 76.
------------------------

Thanks,
ramana

Not a participant to preclude bias.
Just a note taker like Chitragupta or Madame Defarge!

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 19 Apr 2014 21:53

UlanBatori wrote:I am trying to figure out how automated is this whole process, and how foolproof the ID. Now
- the machine is an EVM.
- the proof of ID is an electronic chip in a card (Aadhar)
- there is no way for the polling aphsar to verify that the voter has not voted elsewhere, except by putting the ink on his/her finger.
- note that I could go to Polling Booth A as Abdul wearing pants and show my thumb and then go to Polling Booth B as Ayesha with a different ID wearing a salwar-kameez and show my index finger. And then go to Polling Booth C as Kiran (which could be abdul or ayesha) and show my middle finger.

So what stops a fully Internet-based voting?

Each person is available only in one polling booth in one constituency. The principal id for voting is voter id and not aadhar. In the absence of a voter id, any other government issued identification that shows ones name, DOB and father / husband's name (in case of female) is accepted. EVen if a person has managed to get two set of ids with different addresses, and manage to erase the indelible ink, one person can vote in more than one constituency (not a booth) but not twice in the same constituency. The system is relatively fool proof compared to before. Barring mal-function of devices, there is very little counting related mal-practice that can happen. EVM has made it impossible for people to cast invalid votes (where they put the stamp outside the boundary or for two candidates, or inbetween the space for candidates, etc). There is no booth-capturing which used to happen often in some gunda infested constituencies. Overall, the voting and counting process after EVM now is lot better than before. The only continuing problem is several voters not registering themselves and hence unable to vote or several voters not going to vote despite having valid voter ids.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Apr 2014 08:00

UlanBatori wrote:I am trying to figure out how automated is this whole process, and how foolproof the ID. Now
- the machine is an EVM.
- the proof of ID is an electronic chip in a card (Aadhar)
- there is no way for the polling aphsar to verify that the voter has not voted elsewhere, except by putting the ink on his/her finger.
- note that I could go to Polling Booth A as Abdul wearing pants and show my thumb and then go to Polling Booth B as Ayesha with a different ID wearing a salwar-kameez and show my index finger. And then go to Polling Booth C as Kiran (which could be abdul or ayesha) and show my middle finger.

So what stops a fully Internet-based voting?

Every registered voter has a number called an EPIC number. The lists are freely available online and offline via the election commission. The voters list even has a photo of the voter and nowadays they seem to have a counter that adds one year to age - so my age and the age of my family members are all reflected accurately - we are all now noted to be one year older than we were when we voted for the Karnataka Assembly elections last year. And sex is indicated so Abdul can't become Ayesha

In between elections representatives of the election commission visit every house asking about how many voters are there and whether any names need to be addee or deleted (because of death, for example) One can also do this online or at designated local offices. Shortly before elections people are urged to check online or at a local office that their names are actually registered, Apathy among usefully employed wealthy upper middle class is a problem - especially middle aged and elderly who are neither net savvy nor concerned enough to get off their backsides and go physically to the local EC office.

In the polling booth your Aadhar or other id is needed only to tally with your pre-existing profile on the election commission rolls. if the latter is absent Aadhar will not allow you to vote. Rubbing off ink is a myth. If you rub it off it disappears instantly but a light mark appears in a few minutes and that won't go away. Most people forget that this is not a marker pen but a chemical reaction with skin cells. The particular finger to be used is fixed, as well as what is to be done if a person has no fingers

I am certain internet voting will come - but I am guessing that the problem lies in identification and preventing fraud as well as convincing everyone that fraud has been effectively thwarted

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 20 Apr 2014 18:38

Clash of cultures and babucracy...

"The official has been shifted from Harohalli polling centre, which is in the city, for changing the direction of the electronic voting machine on Muniyappa's request to make it Vastu complaint," Kolar deputy commissioner and returning officer D K Ravi told reporters here.
Changing the direction or position of the EVM is unlawful, he said.
As soon as Muniyappa entered the polling centre to cast his vote, he was displeased to see the EVM facing south and placed it in north-eastern direction with the help of his supporters, Ravi said.
"On receiving the information I shifted the election officer for carrying out Muniyappa's instructions," the deputy commissioner said.
Ravi, however, did not respond when he was asked the reason for not taking action against Muniyappa's supporters who changed the position of the EVM. "I will get back to you on it soon," he said. (aphtar I retarn from a brief trip out of the ishtate to wait for election rejults onlee)

I think the Official has an iron-clad case against Mr. Ravi: He DID NOT HELP the Minister or his goons to shift the EVM. He merely stood by with his inked thumb up his musharraf while they did the heavy lifting, as any self-respecting Babu is supposed to do.

Also, I wonder if his new desk is facing in a Vaastu-Compliant direction - may be in the middle of the National Forest where he can see the wild elephants coming towards him after stomping on assorted drunken "techies" and their Ai-phonej.

Anand K · Post by **Anand K** » 23 Apr 2014 07:16

Status of Opinion polls in India

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 23 Apr 2014 07:46

Courtesy The Hindu.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Apr 2014 05:51

Courtesy: The Telegraph

5th Phase photo...a groom in Rajasthan voting. Courtesy - Hindustan Times.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Apr 2014 05:54

Hemamalini? Indian Express

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 24 Apr 2014 07:26

Why is dream girl in burqa, hain ji?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Apr 2014 00:27

350 million votes cast so far in 349 seats; 2014 elections on course to break 1984 turnout record

Indian voters have hit high notes like never before in the first six phases of the Lok Sabha elections, setting the stage for a scorching turnout record in the summer of 2014.

Traditionally, poll pundits see high turnout as a vote for change. Following Thursday’s vote in the sixth phase, 350 million Indian voters (more than the population of the US) have given their verdict in 349 of the 543 seats.

If the turnout trend holds, the record of 63.56% established in 1984 polls, held soon after the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, will be eclipsed.

“By this time, the national aggregate of turnout for all the elections held so far is 66%, as against 57.53% for the same constituencies in 2009 Lok Sabha elections,” Election Commission director general Akshay Rout had said on Thursday. “Of course, it is the highest ever.”

A 65% turnout will mean 530 million votes cast from an electorate of 815M.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 00:57

Will it also break the 1984 seat record?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 26 Apr 2014 07:41

This wave is in response to the assassination of the country!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 26 Apr 2014 08:39

KJoishy wrote:Why is dream girl in burqa, hain ji?

Protecting herself from Rose petals. Rose petals is more of a Congress thing with Kapil Sibal, Rajkumar Rahul and Rajkumari Priyanka and Rajmata Sonia getting them by the ton. Need that much to cover the stink.