Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Apr 2014 20:45

our maid said a certain political party arranged to pay 1000/per head in her colony which is mainly construction workers and maids.
and it was not bjp.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 17 Apr 2014 20:46

in TN esp chennai the going rates should be 2000 maybe even more now

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 20:47

TOI India ‏@TOIIndiaNews 31m

#DanceOfDemocracy Narendra Modi is like Idi Amin, Hitler, Mussolini, Abhishek Singhvi says http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... IIndiaNews …

So now Modi has moved beyond Hitler per CON. Seems with each passing phase the panic is increasing.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 17 Apr 2014 20:49

Atri wrote:Traditionally a Puneite is known to have opinion on every thing in universe from string theory to ideal way of killing rats in gutters.

not kidding.. and it does not necessitate a Punekar to have an educational qualification or experience to have such opinion. Here, even a orderly and santri of Municipal Corporation's most useless department can give an "expert" opinion on fixing healthcare crisis of USA with more authority and seriousness than Ombaba himself. A kid in kindergarten and old man on chaupaal are all a pedestal higher than rest of mortals in remaining country when it comes to "intellectual discussions". ....

..... how one needs to sleep in afternoon onlee..

you have guessed the source right.. he's the inspiration.. but experience for everyone no.. after all, your's truly too is from that soil onlee.

A fellow Pu. La. Deshpande bhakt I see.

The moment I saw low percentages in Pune, my immediate reaction was, "They must be sleeping through the afternoon as usual"

Jokes apart, the main problem there will still be MNS splitting the vote just like last time won't it? In fact this year they must have confused people more because of RT praising Modi.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 20:51

Singha wrote:our maid said a certain political party arranged to pay 1000/per head in her colony which is mainly construction workers and maids.
and it was not bjp.

I can confirm that. My driver told me the going rate. I asked him - can I go and get it

Easy money compared to slogging it out in the OR daily

negi · Post by **negi** » 17 Apr 2014 20:52

Singha wrote:BTM is also the home of countless infy/wipro employees. throw a stone in any direction and you will hit 2 before the stone stops rolling.
perhaps AAP/NN indocrination has reached in these portals?

Bangalore was always a den for libtards ,mostly folks from pub culture, yoga and fab India type jhollahwalas hob nob in elite circles here; majority of the ITVTY munnas as usual are impressionable and like to hang out with these so called cool group. Most of them will be voting for AAP this time.

NN will only get faithful Infy worker's vote in any case not many in ITVTY love their bosses certainly not in the services sector. NN would have won with a landslide had he opted for AAP his choice to go INC came at wrong time. Ananth Kumar might just scrape through this time.

durvasa · Post by **durvasa** » 17 Apr 2014 20:53

In one Fortune 500 IT company, checked with house keeping staff. Everyone got 1000 Rs per family from Nilekeni. M

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Apr 2014 20:54

pankajs wrote:
NDTV ‏@ndtv 4m

68 per cent voter turnout in Karnataka, it was 59 per cent in 2009: Election Commission #Elections2014 Read More: http://www.ndtv.com/elections/live-blog ... 014-482300 …
Karnataka numbers keep improving.

Cop at Bangalore South told me huge crowd in morning, and this time it will be around 70%! I went in afternoon second time with a relative, and missed the morning rush when i went myself, so i take back my comments about people taking it too easy in B'lore.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 17 Apr 2014 20:56

krishnan wrote:in TN esp chennai the going rates should be 2000 maybe even more now

It was that much six or seven years ago during the TN assembly elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 20:56

Hindustan Times ‏@htTweets 3m

#LSpolls: #Maharashtra records 61.7% turnout, Shinde upbeat http://read.ht/dm7 pic.twitter.com/iQfacKDU4Q

Maharashtra too has been upgraded from ~57% to 61.7%!

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 17 Apr 2014 20:59

Is Narendra Bhai heading towards a Rajiv Gandhi like mandate of 84?
read it at 543 jingos!!

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 17 Apr 2014 21:05

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:07

Let's wait until 24 May, then we'll have a better picture. I hope BJP did better than 12 seats in KA.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:08

nawabs wrote:Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!!

What does that mean exactly?

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 17 Apr 2014 21:10

MEans the figures are like " Hey this is impossible, something must be wrong, lets slash a few percent and make it a bit 'realistic'".

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Apr 2014 21:11

the long drawn election is why nitish-mk2 like CBN first get into something, and then have second thoughts or can be given inducements to upset the arrangement.

he does not look like a dependable ally for sure. more like a nitish-mk2.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:12

I mean what is the statistical basis behind this when he says "mathematically baffling"?

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:14

Singha wrote:the long drawn election is why nitish-mk2 like CBN first get into something, and then have second thoughts or can be given inducements to upset the arrangement.

he does not look like a dependable ally for sure. more like a nitish-mk2.

CBN is probing for weakness and if seen in this round, he will ask for more. If UP looks good as well as the rest of the north and west, he'll probably tone down his requests to a friendly discussion.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 17 Apr 2014 21:16

Mort Walker wrote:I mean what is the statistical basis behind this when he says "mathematically baffling"?

It will mean either his prediction model is wrong or the data indicates a mandate that they haven't imagined in their wild dreams.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:18

So 55/110 upto 12 April. Let's see what happens today with 122 seats. Are 61 possible?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 21:20

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 7m

EOD Analysis by Dr @5Forty3 based on ground reports today - Is Narendrabhai heading towards a decisive mandate http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/ …

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 21m

Does India discover hope every 3 decades? http://5forty3.in/2014/04/is-narendra-b ... ate-of-84/ … Is @narendramodi heading towards a 84 like mandate?

Maybe his raw data points to 350-400 seats which in this era of strong local parties on the east-coast and non-existent BJP org on the ground makes it impossible.

Abhijit · Post by **Abhijit** » 17 Apr 2014 21:23

It is not 'mathematically baffling' - wrong choice of word. it is 'empirically' baffling. That means (disclaimer: hypothetically of course - since we all know that there are no exit poll leakages. This is all just intellectual kite-flying onlee) he asks the voters exiting abooth in, say, a largely 'peaceful' area. And, say, 50% of the voters cliam that they pressed the lotus. That would be baffling based on the prior experience, no? Hence he would like to hedge his bets somewhat and peg down his raw data numbers. because if he sticks to them and predicts 325+ for lotus alone and the reality is far south of that on May 16th, he will feel really dejected. This is my interpretation.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 21:24

it is impossible even in a mark-capture-recapture method to get near clear prediction model for votings. just because of the fact that voting patterns can vary in times, hours, periods of voting times, groups, etc. within a constitutency.

disha · Post by **disha** » 17 Apr 2014 21:25

nawabs wrote:Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!!

Mean? All numbers are wrong and it is time to do Dhoti-shiver?

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 21:27

MR and nageshks What is the forecast after round 5 based on voter turnout today?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Apr 2014 21:27

no elections for 1 week now

117 - 24th ~~august~~ April
89 - 28th ~~august~~ April
64 - 7th may
41 - 12th may

so next 2 weeks are the main weightage left. crucial areas like AP , bihar, eastern UP...

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 17 Apr 2014 21:29

Singha, you mean 24th april and 28th april ?

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 17 Apr 2014 21:30

Singha wrote:no elections for 1 week now

117 - 24th august
89 - 28th august
64 - 7th may
41 - 12th may

so next 2 weeks are the main weightage left. crucial areas like AP , bihar, eastern UP...

August??

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 21:31

I have more faith and confidence in Abhishek Singhvi, a man practicing his own version of pappu's 'women empowerment' theme when he likens Modi to Idi Amin and Mussolini apart from the usual Hitler.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 17 Apr 2014 21:32

I am fraying at the edges a bit...writing august for april.

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 17 Apr 2014 21:33

disha wrote:
nawabs wrote:Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
#Confession In every state we are revising BJP's vote-share downwards as compared to raw data, for BJP's leads are mathematically baffling!!
Mean? All numbers are wrong and it is time to do Dhoti-shiver?

It means please subscribe my site NaMo supporters

, I stand by my numbers of 198 to BJP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 21:34

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 32m

Once a distortian.. always a MORON.. @Ram_Guha thinks people are fools and dont have memories.. LOL! pic.twitter.com/vYMxQudSzB

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 21:36

Folks who registered at 543 site ask him. Cant make cryptic remarks and drive anxiety!

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 21:39

Kati wrote:
Singha wrote:Traditionally a Puneite is known to have opinion on every thing in universe from string theory to ideal way of killing rats in gutters.

I thought that's bong characteristic.

all the bongs on this board are shocked aren't they ?

I guess this explains why my uber-aantel (intellectual) cousin loves pune so much. fits right in !

Singha wrote:our maid said a certain political party arranged to pay 1000/per head in her colony which is mainly construction workers and maids.
and it was not bjp.

hmm, they are getting shortchanged. should take the money but vote for modi, as they did in Raj.
in AP (the eastern one) assembly elections the going rate is 50k per voter. (yes you read that right)
============

what's so hard to understand about the 543 comment ?
it simply means his data is too good to believe for bjp if he goes by conventional wisdom.

sum · Post by **sum** » 17 Apr 2014 21:43

ramana wrote:Folks who registered at 543 site ask him. Cant make cryptic remarks and drive anxiety!

Saar, he has mentioned in his article ( which is available for subscribed folks).
If he goes by his model, it looks like a TsunaMo which no one had imagined

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 21:43

ramana wrote:Folks who registered at 543 site ask him. Cant make cryptic remarks and drive anxiety!

I ahve asked them let us see.

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 17 Apr 2014 21:43

543 subscription fee has suddenly almost doubled! It's 900 now

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Apr 2014 21:45

ramana wrote:MR and nageshks What is the forecast after round 5 based on voter turnout today?

I have not yet had a chance to take a look at the voting percentages all over Karnataka (or any other state that went to polls today). I will post my summary over the weekend.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 21:45

Singha wrote:our maid said a certain political party arranged to pay 1000/per head in her colony which is mainly construction workers and maids.
and it was not bjp.

hmm, they are getting shortchanged. should take the money but vote for modi, as they did in Raj.
in AP (the eastern one) assembly elections the going rate is 50k per voter. (yes you read that right)

[/quote]
50 K.Can I go there ?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 17 Apr 2014 21:46

how reliable is 5forty3 ?