Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:47

For $20 for 543 may be OK, but I would have to think about it. Hindi news channels on satellite costs $10, but there's a lot of crap on it and better to spend it on 543 for a better analysis. At $20 this point in the game, it probably is still worth it, but after the 24th, I don't know.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 21:48

krishnan wrote:how reliable is 5forty3 ?

Was accurate on state elections back in Dec. and MRji has confidence in it, so that is good enough for me.

disha · Post by **disha** » 17 Apr 2014 21:50

prasannasimha wrote:50 K.Can I go there ?

Where? Telangana or Seema-Andhra? Maybe you will have to go to SA and spend money in Telangana!

Definitely one will get 50k for Sonia's Flop show in TGN.

KrishG · Post by **KrishG** » 17 Apr 2014 21:50

Ambar wrote:Incredible if true. 5forty3 says NN has an edge over Anant Kumar in Chickpet and BTM areas of S.Bangalore. Chickpet is one of the oldest areas known for trader communities. BTM is the home of countless telugu-kannadigas. I would have expected them to vote for Anant Kumar in droves. Something somewhere is terribly wrong with that city. I agree Anant Kumar does not have a great image, but folks need to vote for Modi/BJP and not for the local candidate.

One thing to note here is the number of seculars in core BTM. It's a pretty well known secular area in Bangalore in addition to hosting the numerous ITvity folks. My guess is that the secular block would have cast their votes to Congis whereas most of the growing number of ITvity folks would have not voting rights here or would be lazy asses enjoying a holiday. I hope that strong BJP areas like Basavanagudi, Padmanabhanagar etc can neutralize these Congress gains.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 17 Apr 2014 21:59

I think CBN is trying to attract secular votes by modi bashing. Of course with tacit understanding with him.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 17 Apr 2014 22:01

I think Ananth Kumar lost it when he colluded with has been D3s to screw BSY and Modi. Its tough to recover after that. Add the charges of corruption and Radia links.
And besides N^2 is an ITVITY honcho in an ITVITY seat. So its three strikes.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 17 Apr 2014 22:03

It is very difficult to get accurate nos from a single poll. Best thing is to wait for exit polls (several).

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 22:06

krishnan wrote:how reliable is 5forty3 ?

Their assembly election predictions were accurate.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 17 Apr 2014 22:08

ShyamSP wrote: Great work Nagesh garu. All Telugus (techies and, esp., non-techies) who can make up good numbers in Bangalore were pretty much anxious to vote for BJP due to AP issue. Can you comment on it.

I was very busy with my area today, ShyamSP-ji. Didn't check other areas about what they did. Almost all Telugus in my area are all second/third generation folk from Rayalseema/south Kosta (ex Babus who have lived in Karnataka for 40+ years often, and their children who grew up here and speak perfect Kannada). I only know of one proper Telugu man - a mason from Guntkal, and his son was volunteering with us for BJP (but then, he and his family have voted BJP for fifteen years now).

But as you say, plenty of Telugus in Karnataka wanted to teach Cong. a lesson. I know that many of them, particularly the low wage paying job workers who were utterly outraged with what the Congress did to SA. Reddies, especially those with relations in SA, are voting en masse for BJP in Bangalore, Chikballapur and Bellary. Telugu techies have been volunteering in large numbers for Ananth Kumar, from what I hear. Small industrialists, many originally from SA (people having factories that employ 5-20 ppl), have been funding Sadananda Gowda hugely here (wouldn't be surprised if half of his campaign finances are coming from Telugus). As for the volunteers, it would be hard to tell Telugus apart from others (Telugus don't maintain a separate political identity, many are fluent in Kannada and speak it with a Kolar-ish accent, so it would be hard to determine who exactly is Telugu). But I wouldn't be surprised if lots of them are volunteering.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 17 Apr 2014 22:08

pankajs wrote:
MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 32m

Once a distortian.. always a MORON.. @Ram_Guha thinks people are fools and dont have memories.. LOL! pic.twitter.com/vYMxQudSzB

My dad says:
Not only that, Just before elections Jaggi Ram resigned, the street was pretty much decided, but the paid news media told a different story.On a Sunday when Jayaprakash addressed In Delhi (Ram Lila maidan?) the blockbuster movie Bobby was shown on the only channel available in India the congi mouthpiece DoorDarshan to keep crowds away.
Just like now, the ground anger was on Congis, everyone knew the results before and even as the elections were going on. There was a man of steel George Fernandes who fought elections from jail. The "communal" RSS fought against Congis thru out the emergency period. Several of my Dad's friends have lathi and scar marks on their back. Similar to now there were congi supporters who were benefiting from connections making the poll very divisive and highly charged, and said the Janata party was anti national and agents of big business
The results were suppressed as long as they could and suddenly the results were announced at midnight

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 22:10

prasannasimha wrote:
Singha wrote:our maid said a certain political party arranged to pay 1000/per head in her colony which is mainly construction workers and maids.
and it was not bjp.
hmm, they are getting shortchanged. should take the money but vote for modi, as they did in Raj.
in AP (the eastern one) assembly elections the going rate is 50k per voter. (yes you read that right)

50 K.Can I go there ?

yes saar, but you need to have PRC (permanent residence certificate) to be registered as a voter.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 22:24

photo-shop the card and give 50% cut to EVM afsar!

just saying it like a kangrez-man onlee.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 22:28

or better yet, become a candidate. cong would pay you 2-15 cr depending on your influence to sit out the elections. just fwiw, 11 out of 60 assembly seats have been bought off by cong this way.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 17 Apr 2014 22:28

Amit Shah is BACK!!!!!

Revenge is ours to take.....

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 22:51

WOW! The scumbags of Libtard fanatic society will die crying over EC's action which is 100% right

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 17 Apr 2014 22:51

Barbarian Indian ‏@barbarindian 5m

Manu Joseph has out-sepoyed himself in his latest NYT column.

ANI ‏@ANI_news 10m

Commission shall closely monitor your campaign activities by constant video tracking: Election Commission in a letter to Amit Shah

Yashwant Deshmukh ‏@cvoter 1h

Latest TAM ratings have revealed that Aap Ki Adalat with Modi became most watched show of all times in history of News Channels in India.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Apr 2014 22:52

pankajs wrote:
New Indian Express ‏@NewIndianXpress 2m

#JaswantSingh Accuses #Raje Govt of Misuing Machinery, Writes to EC - http://tnie.in/1nskT1k
Jassu mithaiwalla has conceded.

I am glad this deadwood guy has (hopefully) had his last hurrah. Time to beat the retreat, Mr. Singh.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 17 Apr 2014 23:04

Jassubhai's son is in BJP by the way, same Barmer district.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Apr 2014 23:05

ramana wrote:Folks who registered at 543 site ask him. Cant make cryptic remarks and drive anxiety!

If this guy isn't sure of his own methodology and numbers now, he should return the Rs 500 to people who subscribed to the site.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 17 Apr 2014 23:13

NDA has already won by TKO. Remaining 2 rounds will let us know if it is a KO (300 plus). No need for points nuancing. The turn-out seems to have 2 aspects. Higher in general and lower for some segments. If that holds, it is a double-whammy and we are heading for true tsuNaMo. The writing is on the wall.

5forty3 is a bit excitable. His weird remarks may be due to the strange numbers he is seeing such as sample estimates crossing max possible support (based on prior models). Maybe it is due to the dual aspects in turn-out. The people turning up and the people sitting out are not from the same "population". Which means congi is gonna get slaughtered. Take that to the bank, regardless of NDA total.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 23:15

KLP Dubey wrote:
ramana wrote:Folks who registered at 543 site ask him. Cant make cryptic remarks and drive anxiety!
If this guy isn't sure of his own methodology and numbers now, he should return the Rs 500 to people who subscribed to the site.

I think what he is saying is the numbers seem to be way higher so he better be a bit circumspect when predicting.

archan · Post by **archan** » 17 Apr 2014 23:18

vishvak wrote:Jassubhai's son is in BJP by the way, same Barmer district.

Recently suspended. Not expelled IIRC.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 17 Apr 2014 23:20

Reason given by Pravin Patil in 5forty3.in for possible revision of data
Depends on the number of marginal seats in a state; for ex in MP assembly elections we had estimated fewer seats for BJP similarly

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 17 Apr 2014 23:21

nachiket wrote:
Atri wrote:Traditionally a Puneite is known to have opinion on every thing in universe from string theory to ideal way of killing rats in gutters.

not kidding.. and it does not necessitate a Punekar to have an educational qualification or experience to have such opinion. Here, even a orderly and santri of Municipal Corporation's most useless department can give an "expert" opinion on fixing healthcare crisis of USA with more authority and seriousness than Ombaba himself. A kid in kindergarten and old man on chaupaal are all a pedestal higher than rest of mortals in remaining country when it comes to "intellectual discussions". ....

..... how one needs to sleep in afternoon onlee..

you have guessed the source right.. he's the inspiration.. but experience for everyone no.. after all, your's truly too is from that soil onlee.
A fellow Pu. La. Deshpande bhakt I see.

The moment I saw low percentages in Pune, my immediate reaction was, "They must be sleeping through the afternoon as usual"

Jokes apart, the main problem there will still be MNS splitting the vote just like last time won't it? In fact this year they must have confused people more because of RT praising Modi.

if someone understand even little bit of Marathi, worth listening. chaste Marathi, mostly Sanskrit words.. but you will get the humor.. Comparison and description of Mumbaikar, Punekar and Nagpurkar.. sharp and humorous..

The Pune bit is most funny..

MNS helped BJP, no worries about that..

Shirole is sitting on hunger-strike tomorrow, so I hear.. I guess they are demanding re-election. Brahmin surnames excluded from list.. thousands could not vote due to missing names.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 17 Apr 2014 23:21

Regarding 5forty3: Folks put your money where your mouth is.
We cry about left domination and wonder about pocket change when it comes to a right leaning medium.

He has developed a methodology which looks at features like caste, religion, income etc. to normalize the sample data and project on the total population. Much better than a raw average among people who have cell phones....

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Apr 2014 23:21

prasannasimha wrote:
KLP Dubey wrote:If this guy isn't sure of his own methodology and numbers now, he should return the Rs 500 to people who subscribed to the site.
I think what he is saying is the numbers seem to be way higher so he better be a bit circumspect when predicting.

I am not sure that makes sense. You can't arbitrarily doctor the data just because they predict something different from what you think is possible. If he already knew what was a 'reasonable' vote % then there is not much point of doing this analysis, is there ? The proper approach would be to present the data as is, and provide possible/likely explanations (including measurement error).

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 17 Apr 2014 23:27

I didn't read anywhere he said he is changing numbers

If Modi sustains this momentum in future phases, then we are certainly headed for a historic election that falls into the 30 year pattern of great Indian political change and all the signals as of today are pointing towards such a scenario unfolding.

[We will analyse this round of election more deeply over the coming 2-3 days as we need to sort out all ground reports and data]

Snippets:

UP not as great as April 10 but pretty good 36%

Bihar - one horse race all BJP

K'taka - Tie 42% each with Nandan closely losing by 5 pm

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 17 Apr 2014 23:30

Politics Party guy is saying BJP-DMDK-MDMK-PMK-KMDK-IJK combine will win 37/39 seats in TN.

Modi is MAPERUNTHALAIVAR!

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 17 Apr 2014 23:35

^what! did you just came outta your texas range?

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 17 Apr 2014 23:35

^^^ If it's too good to be true then it probably is.
Modi will lose onlee

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 17 Apr 2014 23:36

Mort Walker wrote:Politics Party guy is saying BJP-DMDK-MDMK-PMK-KMDK-IJK combine will win 37/39 seats in TN.

Modi is MAPERUNTHALAIVAR!

Not sure if I believe that, but it sure will be bad news for Thadichithalaivi

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 17 Apr 2014 23:39

re : PP guy
please not that loony tunes again. I remember his record quite well.

jamwal · Post by **jamwal** » 17 Apr 2014 23:40

Southies who crack such inside jokes should be banned. What should a dumb northie make of Thadichithalaivi MAPERUNTHALAIVAR ?

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 17 Apr 2014 23:43

All this is hot air yaar, BJP still will get less than 200, cant forget the heartbreak in 2009 and how we were all so gung-ho about it during the election and the baloon deflated so badly that a lot of us on this forum went into depression

Chinmayanand · Post by **Chinmayanand** » 17 Apr 2014 23:47

Who will be the leader of opposition if mom-son duo lose elections ?

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 17 Apr 2014 23:48

Chinmayanand wrote:Who will be the leader of opposition if mom-son duo lose elections ?

I'm betting it will be NN, the next MMS

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 17 Apr 2014 23:50

^^
Thadichithalaivi translates to fat-lady-leader (though she has lost a lot of weight now)
Maperunthalaivar translates to Great leader. Shri. Kamaraj was referred as "Perunthalaivar". Ma-Perunthalaivar means even bigger than even Shri.Kamaraj.

We Tamilians are crazy with our titles...

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 17 Apr 2014 23:51

It seams about 100,000 names of Brahmins, jains, marwadis, gujjus etc were missing from Pune voter lists. its been around in news-channels now. If right, chutiyas of congis led by Kadam and Kalmadi tried this commie trick in very very wrong place.. Pune Brahmin are wrong set ppl to mess with, when it comes to ideological issues. huge backlash, series of court-cases expected. I suspect, there will be re-election in Pune.. I had this suspicion since early morning, now the extent of sabotage is becoming more visible. It is heartening (for pune brahmins) to see Shirole (a maratha) standing for their issues.

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 17 Apr 2014 23:55

rgsrini wrote:^^We Tamilians are crazy ~~with our titles...~~

Fixed that for you.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Apr 2014 23:56

suryag wrote:All this is hot air yaar, BJP still will get less than 200, cant forget the heartbreak in 2009 and how we were all so gung-ho about it during the election and the baloon deflated so badly that a lot of us on this forum went into depression

Please dont remind me of those days. I still make wry faces at the posts of some of the cheerleaders in that doomed charge who were quoting some ibternal BJP psephologist.