Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Apr 2014 16:17

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 2h

A close aide of union Rail minister and a minister in Karnataka thinks Kharge is on a sticky wicket due to Modi Wave! http://5forty3.in/2014/04/changing-dyna ... ojections/ …

आज तक ‏@aajtak 3h

BREAKING NEWS: मोतिहारी से भी चुनाव लड़ सकती हैं लालू यादव की पुत्री मीसा भारती #Aajtak http://bit.ly/Live_Breaking_News …

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 20 Apr 2014 16:35

This Pravin patil guy is becoming a bit arrogant in his tweets.In response to a query he gives these tweets. I think someone who knows him should tell him to tone down or else he will lose subscribers if he answers like he did to somebody.I tweeted back to him not to answer like that.Here is a copy

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Biswajeet Dash ‏@biswajeetdash 2h
@5Forty3 when is the next part in this series coming out?
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Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 2h
What are we? An analysis churning machine? We take utmost care with every inch of our data, can't produce trash every hour @biswajeetdash
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Ullas Hiremath ‏@Hungrynfool 2h
@5Forty3 @biswajeetdash Thoda arrogance kam karo...you may be good, but doesnt mean kuch bhi bolo...
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Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 2h
Wonder where was the arrogance? Do you want us to just churn out something every day without analysing data? @Hungrynfool @biswajeetdash
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Prasannasimha ‏@Prasannasimha 26m
@5Forty3
I think it is but natural that people will ask when the next part will come You cant answer like that. Bad PR.
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Prasannasimha ‏@Prasannasimha 4m
@5Forty3 You promised 11am ,12,3 & 7pm Analysis.On 17th there was only 1 .Full analysis was to be in 48hrs If people ask why is it wrong ?
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Prasannasimha ‏@Prasannasimha 1m
@5Forty3 It was your promise not anyone elses.If deadlines could not be kept it can at least be clarified to preempt questions & queries

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 20 Apr 2014 16:42

There is an interesting new analysis of 17th polls out on 5forty3 by the way.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 20 Apr 2014 16:46

FWIW

arun giri ‏@arungiri 3h

Imp update - Karnataka projections of a regional newspaper - Cong - 18, BJP - 9, JD S - 1. They say Nandan ahead in Blore South.

vic · Post by **vic** » 20 Apr 2014 16:48

I think BJP is consolidating at least 240 seats and NDA around 290

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Apr 2014 16:49

A Ganesh Nadar/Rediff.com in Theni, Tamil Nadu

'He takes kumkum from one old lady's plate and puts it on his forehead.'

'He then puts his hand in his pocket. The hand comes out, the fist closed. The woman opens her palm. He covers her palm with his fist. The woman closes her palm.'

'There are policemen, also a videographer from the Election Commission. There is a huge crowd all around. No one sees anything, and if someone does, no one bats an eyelid.'

"You will have to ask the local leaders, but I will look into it," he assures them. Then he adds, "Remember, if you vote for the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party), they will stop MNREGA."

Interestingly, the same tactic -- that the BJP might end MNREGA -- is deployed by Congress leaders ranging from the party's candidate H Vasanthakumar in Kanyakumari to sitting MP P Chidambaram in Sivaganga and the Congress nominee Mani Shankar Aiyar in Mayiladuthurai.

so now they are using this

In another village, a group of women wait to perform aarti for the MP. Rashid waves them away, but allows one old lady to do the aarti. He takes kumkum (vermillion powder) from her plate and puts it on his forehead.

He then puts his hand in his pocket. The hand comes out, the fist closed.

The woman opens her palm. He covers her palm with his fist. The woman closes her palm.

She does not open her palm until she is indoors. Then she smiles, her smile reaching her eyes.

There are policemen, also a videographer from the Election Commission. There is a huge crowd all around. No one sees anything, and if someone does, no one bats an eyelid.

Party workers tell the other women not to be disheartened, and promise to return the next day minus the candidate. The women look pleased.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 20 Apr 2014 17:13

OK - guys on the ground and following all the polls, details and feedback: do I start panicking yet ?

muraliravi, as our resident sane person still predicting about 185 BJP ?

vic · Post by **vic** » 20 Apr 2014 17:50

In my area, Kangress distributed money, murga and liquor. Poor people ate the murgah, drunk the alcohol and took the money. Buuuuuut they voted for Modi because abki baar Modi Sarkaar........! Kangress thinks that just because a person is poor, he is uninformed.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 20 Apr 2014 18:19

prasannasimha wrote:This Pravin patil guy is becoming a bit arrogant in his tweets.In response to a query he gives these tweets......

It seems angry irritated response. How does anger form? When you're going fullspeed fullenergy towards the goal and suddenly a hurdle comes, bang comes the anger.

He is focused on collecting data and analysing it too, then people disturb him arresting his flow and speed hence the anger.

Years ago i found out accidently; a friend of my had a habit of coming from behind and clapping on the back (hand in such a way that it doesn't hurt) loudly.

One day he came from behind and as usually clapped me on the back; I was quite focused on computer screen doing something, boom suddenly so much anger-irritation came up that I jumped up and slapped him.

Now he had done that dozens of times before; but never before i was so concentrated on something..........

If you see the MSM; what they do? They'll show one breaking news all the day again and again with different experts-politicians etc. making similar sorts of comments. Just the faces change, you also have an option of changing the channels to see the same thing with different voices and faces

But Shri Patil doesn't have the whole organisation to keep people busy with futile comments and statements. His stuff whenever comes is fresh, exclusive and analysed. So people should be happy whatever he supplies, they're lucky that they're getting even this much. Plus working so hard at his age......

Although I haven't subscribed to him, but still can understand his problem.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Apr 2014 18:27

could have just ignored the tweet, its something else that made him respond like that, I think his analysis are going all wrong

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Apr 2014 18:46

asraghunath Raghunath AS 3h
BJP BREACHES SOUTHERN FORTRESS pic.twitter.com/LpUYNWPPow

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Apr 2014 18:47

asraghunath Raghunath AS 3h
BJP on the rise down South! pic.twitter.com/rZH2QrbfL2

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Apr 2014 18:58

C'mon guys,

Brfites should know better than to follow an aaptard/ex-congressi like arun giri who parades as if he is like some sane intelligent pollster.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Apr 2014 18:59

actually congress+other seats should go to bjp.. if not, they did not do well in TN after all these super start kollywood haath exchange.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 20 Apr 2014 18:59

Dhananjay , He had to just ignore the tweets or better still just send a post in his blog saying that he is working on the analysis and that there is a delay.When you say that you will do 4 updates on election day and full analysis in 48 hours especially with a lot of hyperbole and give only one on election day and a partial one after nearly 3 days without any clarifications or an apolgy fior not keeping to his deadlines(remember that he has made and promised those deadlines himself - it is OK when you are not asking people to pay but when you ask people to pay they also have a right to ask .If he thinks that money is too little , it was he who did the pricing.Also if he wants to build his brand equity do you think doing a Kejriwal and being arrogant is going to help him. Bad PR isn't going to help him.He needs to apologize for his improper tweet. However busy you are is it so difficult to say - sorry for the delay working on it or just a lot of data is being processed and is taking time. He wants to think he is Nate Silver and other statsticians but even Nate Silver never answered like him.A bit of humility never harmed everyone.

ps a new term can be "Doing a Kejriwal" meaning going back on ones promises after promising the moon.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 20 Apr 2014 19:17

pandyan wrote:mistakes happen. may be he is under pressure because all of sudden there is a flood of new "owners/managers" who subscribed and demand answers.

If you cant stand the heat you need to get out of the kitchen - not set it on fire.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 20 Apr 2014 19:22

my last post before i take my flight home:

People who are on the conservative side like me must have noticed by now whats going on in UP. The EC actually has helped BJP by starting polls from the western end of UP so that they can cash in early. Barring a few pockets and some corners, BJP's strength declines as we move from western UP towards eastern UP. Now in core western UP, people voted cutting across caste lines and going by most sources and 5forty3, they hit 8-9 of the 10 seats in phase 1. The next phase has yielded them 6/11 (it is a pretty reliable number, so much so that there is relatively consistent reports in the names of the 6 seats) with an yield rate of close to 55%. Expect this number to dip further. Since these 11 seats are also relatively polarized areas though not as much as the 1st 10 seats. In the remaining 59 seats, BJP will fight only 57 seats. There are some 6 sure shot high profile seats in these 57 and 6 sure lose seats. So the contest is in 45 seats. My prediction is that, they may hit a 35-40% strike rate and land about 15 of the 45.

So overall 9 in phase 1, 6 in phase 2, 6 sure shot going forward and 15 of the 45 will land themselves at close to 36 of the 80 seats. Granted I maybe low balling their prospects, but I prefer it that way.

That said, macro level,

Western India: RJ+GJ+MP+CG+MH should be close to 90 seats
Goa and UT's should be 4 seats
KA and other south indian states should be 12 seats
Orissa+Assam+Jharkhand+NE States: 14 seats
North India (JK, PB, HP, UTT, Haryana, Delhi): 17 seats
UP+Bihar should be 55 seats

Total 192 for bjp on its own. thats a pretty good performance in my opinion and namo can form government with reasonable comfort.

One caveat is UP, in phase 2, 3 seats at a minimum were always out of bounds for BJP and so estimating strike rate with those included may not be a good idea.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 20 Apr 2014 19:31

muraliravi, have a safe flight home and my most sincere thanks for your most excellent analysis.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 20 Apr 2014 19:33

Just to add more color, niran has been giving a different number - 18 out of 21 (he is on the ground and supposedly has access to exit report filed by BJP voting agents from each booth).
Now going by 543, out of 13 in Bihar BJP is at 10 (here we are exceeding our expectations). Eastern UP, Central UP (avadh) etc all were not so happy grounds for BJP before, but now it has changed dynamics. That number is low ball number, which assumes past performance, where there is no wave for any party. BJP has been consistently attracting 36%+ vote share, if that remains constant, then 50 is the min seats to expect.
Granted in east and central,northern and other parts of UP, the polarization may not be much, but other factors such as development takes precedence. I can guess what among the apposing parties may spoil BJP chances, but I am not announcing it here. Also Modi in Varanasi helps.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 20 Apr 2014 19:37

pandyan wrote:its easy to lecture with hindsight. may be he learnt the lesson and will start ignoring tweets that provoke him.

If he has learnt his lesson he needs to apologize in the same medium (Twitter) if he doesn't he can see funds drying up as people are not taking that outburst well. Actually if you see the original tweet it was not provocative - just a request asking whether there was any further analysis- what is so offensive about that ? I and a few others were planning to send some more money to help his work but we backed out seeing that behavior.

India will not stop or change depending on his analysis but if he wants to move up the psephology ladder his predictions need to be accurate and he must be in sync and loyal to his well wishers.turning against them doesn't help him.If someone here knows him personally they need to drub some sense into him.A single intemperate post on social media has a bad habit of staying forever and spreading.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 20 Apr 2014 19:41

Bihar seems to be far-far sweepy than UP for BJP. But I will wait to see one Eastern UP phase before concluding the downward spiral.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Apr 2014 19:45

^the fact is on twitter, one could go and delete the tweets.. may be he will do that once he fess ups his phucks ups.

Shalav · Post by **Shalav** » 20 Apr 2014 20:41

Can we just move on from airing grievances about 543? This thread is about the elections!

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 20 Apr 2014 20:56

pankajs wrote:
Now in a last-minute tactical move, the Congress recently informally asked its voters to cast their ballot not for the party candidate, Harish Chaudhary, but for Jaswant Singh, who is fighting as an Independent. The Congress hopes this way it will defeat the BJP in this prestige contest.

This type of thing needs to be broadcast widely. INC is a party which will think nothing of screwing its own candidate if there is a need.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 20 Apr 2014 21:15

Please Tweet

Old video, Jethmalani Thrashes Pagalika, continuously calls her stupid, for questioning him on his ethics for defending Manu Sharma as per Indian Constitution.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 20 Apr 2014 21:30

Simply Brilliant!

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 20 Apr 2014 21:32

the artist forgot the cap

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 20 Apr 2014 21:46

fanne wrote:Just to add more color, niran has been giving a different number - 18 out of 21 (he is on the ground and supposedly has access to exit report filed by BJP voting agents from each booth).
Now going by 543, out of 13 in Bihar BJP is at 10 (here we are exceeding our expectations).

Well, Amit Shah is confident of 18/21 in UP, whereas Patil is not so different (15/21). In Bihar Patil is projecting 10/13. If these trends continue we are looking at 85-90/120 from UP and Bihar for NDA.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 20 Apr 2014 21:52

narendra nath ‏@iamnarendranath 24m

Reports from Bihar says that 'secret deal' in air between JDU and RJD leaders to extend 'Kishanganj' model to beat Modi on 6 more seats

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 20 Apr 2014 22:04

Rahul M wrote:narendra nath ‏@iamnarendranath 24m

Reports from Bihar says that 'secret deal' in air between JDU and RJD leaders to extend 'Kishanganj' model to beat Modi on 6 more seats

That is not so secret a deal. Everyone was talking about when I was passing through those areas recently. The result of all this is that JDU would be drawing a blank.

Incidentally I saw Varun Gandhi in West bengal siliguri working silently as Niran had once told on the forum. He is an asset and I got good feelings about him. Far Better of two Gandhis.

KIshanganj is a difficult seat as always. That is why Shahnawaz Hussain Ran away from the place. Full of BDs.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 20 Apr 2014 22:05

Just back from our campaign in support of Shri Advani ji

We visited ~400 houses in our booth. That is more than 1500 voters. Out of them we found only 5 voters going for cong. Rest all saffron. Around 20% said we are wasting our time in trying to sell BJP to them as it is already sold!! Also they all do vote. This is not surprising as my area is a known bjp fort. I expect at least 80% voting for bjp in my booth. It's kinda boring to campaign for bjp here

. No one even asks why should they vote for bjp. I wish I was in WB or TN or AP like place.

The congress candidate Kirit Patel against LKA lives in my neighbourhood. He has got a single jeep which runs with a driver and a CD player operator. No more passengers. No activity in his house which remains closed all day. He is an old time sanghi. A shakha is held right in front of his house

. I see more activity from PAAPis on ground than cong.

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 20 Apr 2014 22:07

Anantha wrote:Please Tweet

Old video, Jethmalani Thrashes Pagalika, continuously calls her stupid, for questioning him on his ethics for defending Manu Sharma as per Indian Constitution.

Previously (in 1998), Pagalika has got real life thrashing too. Diplomat's wife beats up scribe

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 20 Apr 2014 22:11

kmkraoind wrote:

Previously (in 1998), Pagalika has got real life thrashing too. Diplomat's wife beats up scribe

That is no cause for joy.

member_28352 · Post by **member_28352** » 20 Apr 2014 22:16

Technically Muslims and Yadavs are not friends. The 1989 Bhagalpur riots were the actions of Yadavs on peaceful people. Its ironical that Laloo has been able to keep the MY combination together in Bihar. Now tell me aren't there any ambitious muslims mlas/mps/ex-ministers in Laloo's RJD like Azam Khan is in SP of UP.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 20 Apr 2014 22:18

5forty3 isn't anything like Nate Silver. Silver used past data, state polls, national polls, reliability of pollsters, and simulation to generate forecasts (assigning probabilities to various scenarios). He could do this because reliable data is available in US, its a 2-party system, winner gets all within each state. So a much more deterministic system than India where multi-corned contests are the rule, its first past the post not at a state level but at constituency level and existence of diverse populations and coalitions. One thing is certain: forecasting will get much better in 2019 as demographics change, and regional parties get weaker for LS polls. 5forty3 is generating real data himself (via his team) by focusing on trends in swing areas and using various hypotheses to evaluate the data. So its a much more theory-driven exercise.. Silver's approach was much more statistical and he just used others data (and many other pollsters in the US also did equally well). I think elements of Silver's approach can certainly be used here. Would be interesting to do it for 2019.

I think we shouldn't be too critical of his cantankerousness. Brilliant, driven people are not necessarily ideal to have a beer with. We need to recognize that. Giving him feedback is ok though. Same reason is why I say is that RM should be given a very wide berth. Such genius emerges very rarely. NaMo is being politically correct in his interviews (to the extent of not saying there is a Modi-wave, bah-humbug) but that's his way of handling media.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 20 Apr 2014 22:23

How are Bihar Muslims so different from UP muslims that they are willing to go for BJP in reasonable numbers?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 20 Apr 2014 22:34

Saral wrote:How are Bihar Muslims so different from UP muslims that they are willing to go for BJP in reasonable numbers?

There was never any settled Muslim aristocracy in Bihar. The Bihar rulers have always been Hindu's, fairly powerful, only paying titular tribute (if any) to Muslim Dewan of Bengal (in turn to Mughals) -- the Muslims are Arzals, and some Ajalfs. Mostly converts during waves of attacks.

This is in contrast to UP (western and middle) where there were Muslim zamindars, Nawabs, and Subedars.

The mass of muslims in villages in Bihar are extraordinarily destitute, packed in really small areas for living spaces and mostly lowest of the low.

This social dynamic has kept them less dominant and also less Islamic and mostly continued in a mismash of old ways mixed with Islam. There are villages were Muslims are 60% population without a single mosque.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 20 Apr 2014 22:41

Thanks. For the most part, the quality of discourse on MSM is pathetic. The quality of "experts" that Prannoy Roy had to discuss the polls was horrid. A decent, no-holds barred, documentary of Islam in India would go a long way in educating people (including Muslims) on their history and current identity.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Apr 2014 23:16

Saral wrote:Thanks. For the most part, the quality of discourse on MSM is pathetic. The quality of "experts" that Prannoy Roy had to discuss the polls was horrid. A decent, no-holds barred, documentary of Islam in India would go a long way in educating people (including Muslims) on their history and current identity.

Saral, That was my goal on starting the many Islam threads on BRF.

India went under about a 1000 years of Buddhism and emerged out of it. The Indian Muslims also fell prey to another 800 years of Islam spell.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 20 Apr 2014 23:43

Sanku wrote:The mass of muslims in villages in Bihar are extraordinarily destitute, packed in really small areas for living spaces and mostly lowest of the low. This social dynamic has kept them less dominant and also less Islamic and mostly continued in a mismash of old ways mixed with Islam. There are villages were Muslims are 60% population without a single mosque.

What this implies is that if relative prosperity does arrive, via development, over the next decade, then these groups are more vulnerable to radicalization via strengthening identity in ways that differentiates them. Development is not an unmixed blessing. It creates new expectations.. so that a govt that has actually raised aspirations by performing well can be booted out due to unrealistic hopes. Likewise it can accentuate risks of fragmentation as well. These groups will now have the capacity to be exposed to more persuasive narratives that could radicalize them (from a state where they were not radicalized because of dire poverty).

Ramana: Which are the key Islam threads on BR?