Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

sum · Post by **sum** » 22 Apr 2014 14:59

Deleted

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Apr 2014 15:12

kvraghav wrote:Tumkur will go to BJP. Its a stronger hold of BSY than shimoga. Basavaraj is unpopular since 10 yrs but wins.

Tumkur is extremely dicey. Vokkaliga votes will be shared between Muddahanume Gowda (decent Cong. leader, but from Kunigal, so being dubbed `outsitder') and Krishnappa of JD(S), particularly since Suresh Gowda (BJP MLA from Tumkur Rural) is sulking about ticket given to Basavaraj. Basavaraj's best hope was the Lingayat vote bank of the BJP, but this is being split due to efforts by T B Jayachandra of Congress. OBC votes (Gollas are backing JD(S), Kurubas are backing Cong, and there are a few others backing BJP) are also going to be shared out, and Dalit voters are consolidating towards the Congress. I will be pleased if BJP wins Tumkur, but victory seems, by no means, certain to me.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 22 Apr 2014 15:22

niran wrote:
Atri wrote:Worried abt MP's low voter turnout.

yes, Sir, even lowly volunteers in UP and has been questioning, they wanna know what and why is hindering MP BJP unit.

It means congis have given up the battles and staying put in homes ashamed to face Jantra. SO Do't worry.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 22 Apr 2014 15:25

Paging RMji, in case he is not busy at all. Please consider this as last priority or no priority. Any hints that you have come across that Bangla x-voters have migrated as per constituency wide voting trends or just arbitrary way.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 22 Apr 2014 15:26

Part2 - The Southern Prong

sometimes it is said small events and small men have a great impact on the overall outcome of much bigger things. the "hinge of battle" as it were.
such an event was to occur at dusk on that fateful day as the 1st and 2nd echelon of the southern pincer had effected the crossing of the yamuna at a unknown place about 10 miles south of what we call today mayur vihara.

the 1st echelon consisted of a few scout units of light horse (marathas), elite light infantry trained and equipped to fight both in the ancient greek mass formation of Hoplites as well as the Gupta-Maurya formulation of small units of infantry working in combinations with horsemen. Around 7500 of them managed to ford the river slowly without untoward incident. the 2nd echelon consisted mainly of herders and nomadic peoples who had marched up from well south of the Vindhyas from the dry uplands of north karnataka and interior Maha_Rashtra. They were not soldiers per se but meant for a very specific role - on the march they managed the pack animals hauling and pulling the heavy loads across the red soil. But today General had assigned them a special role that was yet to fully explained to the lower ranks. They did as they were told and marched with their assigned animal herds across the river in the tail end of the convoy.

By 6:30 dusk had fallen over the ancient city and campfires could be seen all over as the fighting wound down, barring the spies, scouts and saboteurs still flitting around like ghosts over the scrub forests and ruins. Here and there Krantikaries still tried to charge the lines with barrels of explosives tied to their backs and a short lighted fuse, but mostly they tripped and fell over rocks and exploded right there. one or two managed to reach the frontal edge of the western forward line but were put down by javelin throwers.

Now one of the pluses and minuses of a turkic cavalry heavy horde is their dietary preference of meat, wheat and rice is enormous and must keep pace with the cavalry and catch up every night in order for the cooks to set up camp, cook the grains, slaughter and roast the animals, serve food and then prepare to break camp again at dawn.
Even the enormous number of horses needed a high quality of feed in grain, goat meat and grass to maintain their health in the humid and hot indian climate - something the generals were always cursing about.

This meant large herds of goats, cows and sheep had to be constantly maintained and fed wherever the army moved..in this case the army was moving nowhere so fodder and foraging ground had to be found for 1000s of animals which was tough in the scrub infested uplands of southern delhi. the best watered and lush places around Raisina hill and Jor Bagh had already been claimed by the royal encampment and its many rings of subsidiary camps, so these herds and their keepers had been sent off to the south near mayur vihara to fatten up on the lush grass growing along the river and send a set number of animals to the cooks every day without fail.

one such herder by the name of Ishmael from Herat had loosened his shalwar and was squatting behind a tree to empty his bowels after a hard day of work when suddenly he felt sharp tight teeth clamping down painfully on his exposed bottom in the semi-darkness. with a yell of horror he realized it must be a native indian wolf or leopard whom he knew frequented these parts as some animals were always taken at night and found gutted and partially eaten next morning. Shouting the name of his lord, he withdrew his dagger, slashed wildly behind him and ran screaming for his comrades, letting his shalwar tear off behind him in parts as it caught onto protruding branches.

he took one look behind from a higher point with a clear view and got a full view of the enemy formations slowly melting into the western bank shrubs from the sandbars. he increased his speed - this news must reach the Prince himself! the infidels were outflanking!

behind him, the scout leader of the Alliance cursed and quieted his indisciplined animal, which was not a wolf and neither leopard but the Dhole, the native indian wild dog. known to gang up and kill even tigers, these being canine family had proved ideal as hardy scouts and guards for the Alliance as they could be sourced from many forested areas in central and eastern Bharata.

meantime Ishmael was within sight of his camp, with his fellow herders and guards on fast horses clearly visible among the trees .... it was then that fate played its hand once again.

the ancient Baoli (step well) dug during the time of the Tomars and Chauhans during the pre-Turkic phase of the IndraPrastha had lain unused and undiscovered for centuries, covered in a mat of thick creepers and scrubs making it invisible. until Ishmael tripped over its low retaining wall and fell dozens of feet into the cavern below hitting and fracturing his head on the steps before lying in a heap in the mud at the bottom..seventy two feet below.

A hundred meters behind him, two dark figures sprinting through the trail with unsheathed knives heard his scream, quickened their pace and saw the aftermath of the accident. Listening intently for signs of response from the herder camp, they crept closer....nobody had heard as wine from sheepskin bladders was flowing and tambourine was being played to create some music and laughter as night fell on another tiring day.

one by one, the two dark shapes crept back into deep cover and ran back to the western bank.

"inform the General our crossing is done and we are ready!"

a lone messenger flew back on a horse across the ford...

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 22 Apr 2014 15:29

Why i am confident of tumkur is, we miss one thing about Yedyurappa and lingayats. Lingayats were 16% in karnataka as per population. Lets assume 70% are voters. That is nearly 12% of voters are Lingayats in karnataka. If Yeddy got 10% vote share last time at the peak of his bad time, then image their consolidation. Jayachandra or not, Tiptur and tumkur, stretches of kunigal vote en masse to Basavaraj.Another example is davangere where Shamanur shivashankarappa could not get his MP win.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 22 Apr 2014 15:37

Gunjur wrote: In Bengaluru rural, i feel congress should win. But what I have heard is that the 2 urban assembly segments(Rajarajeshwarinagar, Anekal) have voted mainly bjp. These 2 assembly segments itself has around 6L voters. But other segments like kanakapura, ramanagara, chennapatna, kunigal, magadi etc will mainly vote for congress/jds. (Mainly congress this time due to DiKeShi). But still I feel Blr R is congress.

P G R Sindhia joined BJP, correct? Isn't that going to have an effect in places like Kanakapura? But I agree with you that DiKeShi is too powerful to be unseated by a barely convalescing BJP.

One more uncertain seat is Gulbarga. No idea why it is in uncertain category. Kharge should win from here imo.

Kharge seems to have run into voter apathy of sorts (seeing him campaign for the five hundredth time is repetitive and boring, I suppose). Muslim voting seems to have been lackadaisical, particularly in urban Gulbarga regions. On the other hand, Veerashaivas and OBCs like Kabbaligas seem to have voted en masse for the BJP. Still, Kharge is very hard to beat here.

Chamarajanagar also congress imo(though in 2009 the difference between congress and bjp was not that big).

Dhruvanarayana is a very good candidate for Cong. IMO, it is hard for A R Krishnamurthy to beat him.

Tumkuru should be congress but heard jds has done well in certain assembly segments. Hence maybe in uncertain category as basavaraj of bjp is not that popular in tumkur inspite of being MP multiple times.

Tumkur is going to go down to the wire. All voters seem to have been split, BJP is facing internal dissent, and all candidates are uninspiring. Should be interesting to see whom the voters decide is the least hopeless of the lot.

Chickballapura – kumaraswamy might win but bjp’s bacchegowda is a dark horse.

Vokkaliga votes are going mostly towards Kumaraswamy, but Bacche Gowda has a handle into Vokkaliga votes particularly in Hoskote and Yelahanka segments. Most non-Idiga OBCs are backing oily Moily, while Dalit votes are being split between Kumaranna and Moily. Idigas are backing BJP in a big way, with J Narasimhaswamy swaying Idigas in Doddaballapur and Devanahalli segments. In this case of split loyalties, the Balijas and Reddies hold the key. Reddies are raring to teach the Congress a lesson for SA betrayal (many Reddies have ties in SA), and it depends on who they see as the best hope to beat Moily. JD(S) should have got their votes easily, but they lack a decent Reddy face in the region, while Ravinarayana Reddy and Jyothi Reddy of the BJP were working hard to woo the Reddy voters. Balijas have a soft corner for Yediyurappa, so it remains to be seen if they will vote for the BJP wholeheartedly.

Karawara(uttara kannada) is bjp stronghold, though current mp is unpopular with not much work to show around.

This is the original home turf of LiBra (Lingayat Brahmin) politics. Between Kageri and Yediyurappa, BJP seems to be okay, despite the uninspiring Anant Hegde. Also, Hindutva is a big draw here, what with the peacefuls often going on rampage in places like Kumta and Bhatkal.

But the one seat which should have been in uncertain category is Bengaluru south. As per rumours nilekani has spent more than 150 crs. Again as per folks there, congress workers have offered 1k per vote . So if one house has 4 votes, they have got 4k.

In Vijayanagar and Govindrajnagar slums, families were being offered (degraded) gold nose rings to vote for Nilekani. I have seen vote buying in my time, but Nilekani's crass pitch, ignoring every other consideration, looking to acquire the constituency with a pure cash merger is frankly obscene. More than one middle class man has been outraged by Nilekani's push. Will be interesting to see if the BJP can win despite the huge investment of Nilekani.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 22 Apr 2014 15:38

NDTV ‏@ndtv 30m

Statements made by Ramdas Kadam do not echo the sentiments of Balasaheb Thackeray, Uddhav Thackeray and the party: Shiv Sena #Elections2014

NDTV ‏@ndtv 1h

PM didn't understand coalition politics: Coal Minister Jaiswal to NDTV http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/e ... dtv-512130 … #Elections2014

Family ke liya kuch bi karega.

member_28108 · Post by **member_28108** » 22 Apr 2014 15:57

I want my 5k

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 22 Apr 2014 17:23

Rahul baba is saying we will give house to poor healthcare to poor blah blah. No one is asking him why they have remained poor after a decade of his mamaji's rule in the country. Also is he saying they will remain poor and will have to depend on these doles in the future also? People are really foolish if they can't see the difference with opportunities and upward mobility in life which Namo is offering.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 22 Apr 2014 17:38

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 076363.cms
articles like these are all over, media is behaving like supari killers of Italian Mafia. It is important to control media under some regulation, even if there is action on one channel it will send strong message

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 22 Apr 2014 18:13

There are stories appearing in congress leaning malayalam magazines about booth capturing by commies in Kerala. In Kerala the voting percentage was between 60% and 70% in all seats except in 3 seats of north kerala where it was above 80%. Govt officials and police personnel deputed for poll duty are intimidated and they have to cooperate with the commie goondas. Or else their families are threatened. Same people were casting votes again and again until evening in some booths accroding to the report.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 22 Apr 2014 18:19

Singha, great going.. Nice to read you leave a trace of MB scenarios, but it would be great you may consider thoughts that leaves an extra large and super wide scoped NG epilogue.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 22 Apr 2014 18:40

UP might give a big surprise this time

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 22 Apr 2014 18:44

Joke on Twitter:

Girlfriend to boy: "Darling, take me to a place where there would be no one except us."
Boy: "Sure. Let's go to Rahul Gandhi's rally."

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 22 Apr 2014 19:01

vishvak wrote:Paging RMji, in case he is not busy at all. Please consider this as last priority or no priority. Any hints that you have come across that Bangla x-voters have migrated as per constituency wide voting trends or just arbitrary way.

is that for me ?? if so, please re-state. I didn't get it.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 22 Apr 2014 19:03

As per inputs I have received from folks in Bidar, a district on MH border, BJP will win here. Relatively weak and novice candidate from BJP has not hurt its chances. Most of the lingayats plus marathas in border areas voted for BJP.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 22 Apr 2014 19:46

Atri wrote:Worried abt MP's low voter turnout. d

Is SSC backstabbing NaMo?

gunjur · Post by **gunjur** » 22 Apr 2014 20:01

gashish wrote:As per inputs I have received from folks in Bidar, a district on MH border, BJP will win here. Relatively weak and novice candidate from BJP has not hurt its chances. Most of the lingayats plus marathas in border areas voted for BJP.

Its not just relatively weak, but outright weak candidate. If bjp wins bidar this time, it means only one thing i.e. modi wave. The bjp candidate is very very weak does not bring anything to the table(if am not wrong inspite of being a veerashaiva).

=============

kvraghav wrote:Another example is davangere where Shamanur shivashankarappa could not get his MP win.

Though i feel bjp has an edge. This time whether bjp wins davangere or not will not be decided bjp or congress performance but by mahima patel. How much and from where mahima patel gets votes will decide davangere result.

==============

nageshks wrote:P G R Sindhia joined BJP, correct? Isn't that going to have an effect in places like Kanakapura? But I agree with you that DiKeShi is too powerful to be unseated by a barely convalescing BJP.

Did he?? Am not sure. But even if he did join, i don't think it will help bjp much in kanakapura segment when DiKeShi himself is from kanakapura.

Kharge seems to have run into voter apathy of sorts (seeing him campaign for the five hundredth time is repetitive and boring, I suppose). Muslim voting seems to have been lackadaisical, particularly in urban Gulbarga regions. On the other hand, Veerashaivas and OBCs like Kabbaligas seem to have voted en masse for the BJP. Still, Kharge is very hard to beat here.

I feel the best chance bjp had to defeat kharge was in 2009. Kharge has never lost an election in his life and has been undefeated since 71 elections(though he stood for LS elections only in 2009). So if (actually its a BIGGG IF) revu nayak beLamagi does defeat kharge now, it would be what one can call "once in a lifetime" event.

Tumkur is going to go down to the wire. All voters seem to have been split, BJP is facing internal dissent, and all candidates are uninspiring. Should be interesting to see whom the voters decide is the least hopeless of the lot.

Actually krishnappa of jds is not that hopeless either. Don't know why krishnappa jumped from congress to jds. At one time he was very close to SMK. But anyways, maybe yes the voters have to pick the least hopeless of the lot.

Vokkaliga votes are going mostly towards Kumaraswamy, but Bacche Gowda has a handle into Vokkaliga votes particularly in Hoskote and Yelahanka segments. Most non-Idiga OBCs are backing oily Moily, while Dalit votes are being split between Kumaranna and Moily. Idigas are backing BJP in a big way, with J Narasimhaswamy swaying Idigas in Doddaballapur and Devanahalli segments. In this case of split loyalties, the Balijas and Reddies hold the key. Reddies are raring to teach the Congress a lesson for SA betrayal (many Reddies have ties in SA), and it depends on who they see as the best hope to beat Moily. JD(S) should have got their votes easily, but they lack a decent Reddy face in the region, while Ravinarayana Reddy and Jyothi Reddy of the BJP were working hard to woo the Reddy voters. Balijas have a soft corner for Yediyurappa, so it remains to be seen if they will vote for the BJP wholeheartedly.

Yes, hoskoTe and yelahanka have mainly voted for bjp. But kumaraswamy stills leads the race. But IF bacchegowda does manage to defeat kumaraswamy and later manages to play his card well, he can threaten okkaliga leadership in entire south karnataka. But this is not acceptable to anyone even within the small okkaliga base bjp has.

This is the original home turf of LiBra (Lingayat Brahmin) politics. Between Kageri and Yediyurappa, BJP seems to be okay, despite the uninspiring Anant Hegde. Also, Hindutva is a big draw here, what with the peacefuls often going on rampage in places like Kumta and Bhatkal.

But kageri and anant hedge do not see eye to eye. Also hurting anant's chances are his work(actually the lack of it) in the constituency. But with tina option for hindutva votes , bjp may still scrap through.

For the uninstantiated, Anant hegde has a colourful legacy. This LS seat has bhatkal assembly segment which has been made famous by likes of riyaz bhatkal, yasin bhatkal etc. And bjp candidate has a "STRONG hindu crendtials". The local folklore has it that anant hegde has participated in actual fights with "peacefuls" which has resulted in loss of life of "peacefuls". There are cases registered against him and "law is taking its own course".

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 22 Apr 2014 20:15

Saar, I feel that if Yediyurappa had not royally screwed up his golden chance, the Modi effect would have been even bigger.

Lots of people I speak with in the Mysore region mention the following points:

*Complete f**up of the electricity situation in the state when Yedi was happily gallivanting around with Shoba didi.
*His inability to reign in his ministers and so called supporters, allies etc. Crying in front of the mike certainly did not help.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 22 Apr 2014 20:18

Plus, Mysore area has always had a significant Congress support.

Yogi_G · Post by **Yogi_G** » 22 Apr 2014 20:21

What is the BJP stand on Belgaum?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 22 Apr 2014 21:27

Sorry, for Rahul Mehtaji. Though I do feel that voting is energized for BJP cadre because Modi has clean and clear record for law and order.

A huge plus for heathen pagaan unsaved savages of third world country India!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2014 22:28

BJP getting more confident in TN.

Venkiah Naidu says "JJ is good for state while Modi is good for nation!"

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 22 Apr 2014 22:50

^^^Maybe the politics party guy was right saying Modi wave in TN will carry 37/39.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 22 Apr 2014 23:02

little pooch who is winning in Chandigarh?

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 22 Apr 2014 23:18

ramdas kadam's speech..

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 22 Apr 2014 23:27

Jingos,

Re TamilNadu, we should not start building castles in air. Modi effect is definitely there. But it is not a panacea against very weak BJP organization in the state. For a more balanced prediction, read this article from Centre Right India:
http://centreright.in/2014/04/analysis- ... 1a1pGfnbGg

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 22 Apr 2014 23:28

My own prediction also follows closely with the CRI prediction above.

NDA getting 37/39 is a bit , how shall I put it,....unrealistic, in TamilNadu.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 22 Apr 2014 23:44

So just before the 4/24 polls can we have the surveys posted here please? Just as Fredric posted the TN survey.

Thanks,

ramana

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Apr 2014 00:01

RajeshA wrote:

Can we start posting surveys for Phase 6 &7 in this thread please?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 23 Apr 2014 01:35

Kakkaji wrote:
Atri wrote:Worried abt MP's low voter turnout. d
Is SSC backstabbing NaMo?

Or two elections back to back and junta is tired.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 23 Apr 2014 02:19

Kakkaji wrote:
Atri wrote:Worried abt MP's low voter turnout. d
Is SSC backstabbing NaMo?

We don't know who is not voting. It might very well be Congi voters. After repeated defeats at the hands of the BJP, Congress cadre morale is probably very low, Congress voters might not even care during this NaMo wave, and they might not even be trying to win at all. In places where they have a chance (like Chhindwara, for example), voting has been in the 70%s.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Apr 2014 02:20

Any latest findings from 5forty3 about West Bengal?

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Apr 2014 02:41

Latest from Economic Times on BJP's brighter prospects in West Bengal and Odisa

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 067057.cms

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Apr 2014 02:46

BJP on a roll in West Bengal

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/west ... 56513.html

" ...... Sources in the BJP said the party increased its membership two fold within a span of three years. The total membership has shot up from nearly three lakh in 2011 to over seven lakh in 2013, of which about two lakh new members have reportedly enrolled in the last six months.

The BJP's youth and women wings also witnessed a significant surge of about 50 per cent in the past few months. It gathered momentum mainly after the announcement of Modi's name as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate. ........ "

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Apr 2014 03:10

Kati, These vote share type of surveys dont reflect the big picture. What we need is seat by seat picture.

Thanks though for it gives an idea.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 23 Apr 2014 03:37

rec'vd by e-mail:

TwoCircles.net is an Islamist website. SDPI is a fanatic Islamist party (with deep ties to SIMI, Indian Mujahideen, NDF, Al Umma, Abdul Naseer Madani's PDP and ISI).

See excerpts from this article below:
With Muslims in one hand and working class on other, SDPI eyes North Chennai
By Mohd Ismail Khan, TwoCircles.net, 20 April 2014

URL: http://TwoCircles.net/2014apr20/muslims ... ennai.html

In a well scripted Muslim conscious speech SDPI candidate brought public on its toes. In his ferocious Tamil speech he lashes out on Modi getting applause from crowd. While public meeting was about to be ended, keeping in mind the huge concentration of Urdu speaking Muslims in the locality, the convener told the crowd before taking a leave, “Modi teri Mayyat yahin se uthayange” (Modi your funeral will be lifted from here) which breaks into sloganeering praising SDPI.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 23 Apr 2014 03:41

who is doing the wiki? good job so far? undie:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_po ... tion,_2014

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 23 Apr 2014 03:42

Kati,
Thats same hate speech as Massod fellow's hate speech.
Maybe some one can tweet the link and get it some publicity so folks can rouse the EC from slumber?