Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 24 Apr 2014 08:55

Watched priyanka addressing the crowd. She is nothing but RaGa in sari. Body language is not that of high iq person. The only advantage she has that she can get sympathy as a woman.

sum · Post by **sum** » 24 Apr 2014 08:58

Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 37s

Very early trends but Bihar is seeing a neck-to-neck between BJP+ and Con-RJD, unlike 1st two phases when BJP had runaway leads by now

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 24 Apr 2014 08:59

krishnan wrote:
Mobile phones are not allowed inside polling booths. The security will not keep your cellphone while you finish voting. Instead, if you carry a cell phone you will be sent back. So please remember not to carry your cellphone with you. And please spread this to all. Hope Chennai does better than Bangalore which achieved only 53% voting, and the main reason is they were not allowed because of mobile.

i had a cellphone, so did my parents and we still voted.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Apr 2014 09:00

guess they are not checking much

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 24 Apr 2014 09:01

Anantha wrote:Gents
Please do not predict who will win , who will sail thru (we need the lazys to go and vote). The goal is to get as many people as you can go to vote.

Thanks Santosh, I am not angry, we have to be sly foxes to defeat the scoundrels of Congress and other assorted thugs.
Having said that , I am from Mulund, I am also aware the ground facts. Cheers

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Apr 2014 09:01

Retweeted by AbkiBarModiSarkar
shruti sharma #HDL ‏@SharmaHDL 2m

Sharad pawar who asked people to vote many times can go to any low..56 lakh voters r missing frm maharashtra voter list..

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 24 Apr 2014 09:03

sum wrote:
Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 37s

Very early trends but Bihar is seeing a neck-to-neck between BJP+ and Con-RJD, unlike 1st two phases when BJP had runaway leads by now

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 24 Apr 2014 09:10

Modi will lose onlyeeee

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 24 Apr 2014 09:11

abhijitm wrote:Watched priyanka addressing the crowd. She is nothing but RaGa in sari. Body language is not that of high iq person. The only advantage she has that she can get sympathy as a woman.

If she were a high IQ person, why would she marry a high-school pass/fail Vadra?

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 24 Apr 2014 09:13

Regarding the extended election cycle. One goal was to stretch it into the summers so that the swing voter doesn't come out to vote.

Given all the news about fudged electoral rolls, with duplicates and missing entries, a long voting period also provides opportunity for a core group of crooks to have a multiplier effect. As Pawar said, vote many times. That is only possible if the voting is split over many phase. The same group of crooks can go and vote in many places since the days are different.

Dont count your chicken before they hatch...

niran · Post by **niran** » 24 Apr 2014 09:22

UP today decides 12 seats in two hours Firozabad scores 17% voting and the lowest is from Fatehpursikiri
12%, what does Mumbai and Tamilnadu figures say?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2014 09:33

A lot is made of the timing of the elections in summer. Yet, here's a counterpoint:
* The 2004 elections were advanced from the autumn timing of the 1999 election because Vajpayee wanted to take advantage of the positive sentiment, which didn't work out because it was just a year into the boom after 2-3 weak years driven by poor monsoons, the dotcom bust, and slow fiscal consolidation from the mess of the short HDDG/IKG PM eras.
* The following two elections in 2009 and 2014 were held at the end of full terms and therefore were again held in summer.
* A lot of poll personnel are deputed central and state personnel, teachers etc, who are more easily able to participate when the school year is over.

As to these elections being spread out, I don't mind the number of phases. It's the separation between the phases that's too long. Again, I'm not willing to presume a CT just for that. The EC has a mandate to conduct elections cheaply. If a week between big phases gives them time to handle logistics, so be it. I'm hardpressed to see a conspiracy here. The fact remains that NM's mindshare in the popular imagination pretty much still vastly exceeds that of all his challengers combined. It also gives him time to organize additional campaigning as they attempt to maximize seat share.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Apr 2014 09:41

Also we can see that as we move through the phases of election the general feeling on NaMo wave building up is being projected in media and by word of mouth. I think the sense of Modi coming to power is much stronger now compared to the beginning of elections. So this extended period of voting has its advantages as much as its drawbacks. If you are able to use it to your advantage as NaMo appears to be doing with his rallies and interviews then even better.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Apr 2014 09:56

who is the other guy

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2014 09:59

TOI India ‏@TOIIndiaNews 4m

#DanceOfDemocracy Around 20% polling in six constituencies in Bengal in two hours http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... IIndiaNews …

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 6m

Bihar: Nearly 15% votes cast in Bihar up to 10 am http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/24/b ... 15588.html …

EconomicTimes ‏@EconomicTimes 29s

#Elections2014 15% voters cast their ballots in Bihar up to 10 am | 14.31% voter turnout registered in Tamil Nadu up to 10 am.

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 24 Apr 2014 10:02

VikramS wrote:a long voting period also provides opportunity for a core group of crooks to have a multiplier effect. As Pawar said, vote many times. That is only possible if the voting is split over many phase. The same group of crooks can go and vote in many places since the days are different.

Indeed. How long does the indelible ink persist on the finger?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 24 Apr 2014 10:04

WB is reporting 21% so far. Huge turnout compared to Bihar and MH.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2014 10:07

WB had a turnout of 80%+ in 2009. So not surprising ..

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 1m

Over 11.2 % voters cast their ballot in the first two hours in Uttar Pradesh #India2014

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 24 Apr 2014 10:08

vera_k wrote:
VikramS wrote:a long voting period also provides opportunity for a core group of crooks to have a multiplier effect. As Pawar said, vote many times. That is only possible if the voting is split over many phase. The same group of crooks can go and vote in many places since the days are different.
Indeed. How long does the indelible ink persist on the finger?

If no pro-active remedial measures are taken and the nature takes its own course - then the ink smudge is gone between 5/6 days from fingure area. However it persists on the nail till it outgrows - roughly a month.

However, if remedial measures are taken, and a bunch of crooks would definitely do that, the ink stain does not last beyond a few minutes

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2014 10:09

dna ‏@dna 5m

LIVE Lok Sabha Elections 2014: Polling commences in 117 Lok Sabha seats; UP records 11% while Mumbai at 7.1% http://dnai.in/cb36

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 24 Apr 2014 10:13

Amit Shah ‏@AmitShahOffice 11h
Booth workers:Keep Patience,Be Kind,Rotate Shifts,Record Malpractice by Opponents,Dont Prejudge Voters by name/appearance,Respect Officials

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 24 Apr 2014 10:13

Suraj:
How does this election cycle compare to the previous ones.
I am more interested in intra-state phases. I can understand why the effort is staggered; but I dont get why different parts of a state have to vote a month apart.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 24 Apr 2014 10:16

Looks like Mumbaikars deserve another 50 years of Congress rule judging by the voting percentages. OTOH nothing different to be expected from people who voted back the Congress-NCP crooks after 26/11.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 24 Apr 2014 10:23

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Apr 2014 10:24

It would require thousands of core crooks to travel through out the country to make the difference. Sure there are constituencies that will be decided in a few thousands of votes difference. Voter fraud is a possibility - and we have heard all parties can perform this including the favorite party in this thread. UP which is going to be crucial shares the possibility of such fraudsters travelling to vote within the state or neighboring states.

However, Modi needs to ensure BJP fans go to the booth and just do their voting. If it is a wave, then he wins - fraud or not.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 24 Apr 2014 10:27

I think Priyanka is the brighter bulb than Rahul. Good she entered the fight late.

Modi will lose onlee.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Apr 2014 10:40

some of the part maids in our area have gone to TN to vote today. looks like they could be getting a good sum there.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 24 Apr 2014 10:46

VikramS wrote:Suraj:
How does this election cycle compare to the previous ones.
I am more interested in intra-state phases. I can understand why the effort is staggered; but I dont get why different parts of a state have to vote a month apart.

It depends on how easily accessible the parts of the state are, how effective the administrative machinery, and other logistical aspects that the EC knows better than us. UP, with 200m people, is a far bigger and more challenging exercise than Kerala or TN. By itself it is effectively the 5th most populous country in the world.

Logistically, each booth can only handle a certain number of voters. UP has 80 seats and 200m people, giving 2.5m people per constituency average. Each EVM can only take a certain number of votes (3800 ?). Further, it can only take 5 votes per minute. Each EVM has a logistical chain behind it before, during and after a vote, in order to ensure it is not compromised.

Most of the logistics is right before, during and right after the polling. This means each voting day requires a surge in logistics. For states with weak law and order or state administration, the ECI needs to coordinate additional logistical support. Doing every seat in a state in one go is a huge surge in logistics. The ECI has a mandate to keep costs under control, which means they cannot afford that surge capability. Instead they split the voting process into different phases within a single state when needed.

Another aspect is security. J&K, the Maoist areas, and the NE require greater security. The border areas also require added scrutiny personnel to reject bogus BD voters.

Further, just the fact that they were conducted differently in the past, in itself doesn't say anything. Feedback from prior elections lets the EC decide how to do things differently.

All in all, despite the issues with missing voter rolls here and there, I think this has been a remarkably well conducted exercise. With 815 million on the voter rolls, the complexity of this exercise cannot be understated. We have been spoiled by a generally smooth electoral process despite the fact that our average election is an order of magnitude bigger than anyone else's, and therefore we end up searching for CTs to explains anomalies.

My own opinion is that there simply hasn't been enough quantification of voting patterns in such a large electorate, which is further hampered by the fact that the average election is a multicornered fight with a first past the post system. This adds the additional variables of the winner not needing a simple majority, and the issue with splitting an opponent's vote share, neither of which is a concern in a 2-way system like the US one, which makes the latter far easier for psephologists .

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2014 11:03

Hindustan Times ‏@htTweets 2m

#LSpolls | As per official EC figures, 23.17% polling was recorded by 11am in 7 Lok Sabha seats in #Bihar

Indrojit Kundu ‏@iindrojit 14m

Pretty high turnout like previous phase! Voting % recorded across 6 seats in #Bengal is 42% till 11 AM @ElectionExpress

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 24 Apr 2014 11:09

Did my constitutional duty and voted at my polling booth just a short while ago, around 11:15 am. So far about 25% votes polled....BJP desk outside was well manned but not that much crowd. The big two Dravidian parties were also present. More crowd milling around AIADMK. Spoke to some there....many upper middle class clearly preferred Modi and the local candidate L. Ganesan of BJP.....the lower middle class have a good recall of Modi and what he has done....but many of them said...."We must strengthen amma so that TN gets its just share and Modi becomes PM with her help"....maybe this is what the message that was given by their grass root workers.

Hopefully the turn out should finally be around 70% plus then it will be a clear impact for BJP. Last state elections it was around 75% turn out.

Process was smooth, bandobust good, party functionaries and poll officials helpful and the Police too! There were a couple of foreigners, white guys, who had come to see elections as it happens, they were talking to a police sarge who explained the process...but all the time was glued to these two and did not allow them to enter anywhere near actual polling rooms (class rooms of a local school). They too genuinely interested in learning how it works and they were appreciating the calm way in which people from all walks and religions participated. They were fascinated by the long candidate list and symbols and discussing AIADMK and DMK and comparing with elections back home in England and Ireland. I did not engage them in a conversation, but just listened in.

Made me realize that our elections was one of the most powerful statements about India and the average westerner is only now realizing the way in which India works.

dhruvM · Post by **dhruvM** » 24 Apr 2014 11:22

Flew down from Bombay to hometown in chhattisgarh to vote. Cast my ballot 30 mins back... No queue in my booth, 20% polling done till 10 am... Now planning on grabbing lunch and head out to get some empirical data about voter turnout. Also.plan on volunteering at the local bhajapa booths.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 24 Apr 2014 11:25

SwamyG wrote: I think Priyanka is the brighter bulb than Rahul. Good she entered the fight late.

Modi will lose onlee.

Anyone would be a brighter bulb than Rahul baba.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 24 Apr 2014 11:26

^^So, it does seem as if despite best efforts INC-ECI game plan worked... staggering polls over a month+ in mid-summer.... OPen the booths 12 hrs then, from 7am to 7pm against the summer heat, I say.

My parents find their names not in the rolls whereas they'd voted last time. Mystified only. I who's never voted before have my name in the list, though (via the ceostate.nic.in site I checked) ...

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 24 Apr 2014 11:31

There have to be enough EVMs to store all the votes since they can not be reused during the same elections.
The logistics part I understand, but even there you could do it in a week even if it is to be in phases.

https://twitter.com/abhinavagarwal/stat ... 5043031040
"EVM that marks only Congress, lakh voters deleted, bogus voting. You need a staggered schedule to manage all this fraud."

EVMs require special skills and my fear is that the staggered schedules allow the manipulators to multiply their effect.

Raja Ram · Post by **Raja Ram** » 24 Apr 2014 11:35

My father's name is not on the rolls anymore....he voted in the last assembly elections.....my mother and wife are there still. They did make an effort to see if the list many times and cross check if he was listed somewhere before they said his name is not there and advised me to take it up with the Corporation Zone Office post elections. The polling officer mentioned that there were a lot of such missing name cases this time around! Hope Namo makes it despite all efforts.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Apr 2014 11:36

EconomicTimes ‏@EconomicTimes 42s

#Elections2014 Voter turnout till 11 am Mumbai North-18%, Mumbai North West -16.5 %, Mumbai North East -15 % Mumbai North Central-15.5 %

Minhaz Merchant ‏@minhazmerchant 9m

TN turnout 35%, UP 25% at 11am

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 24 Apr 2014 11:39

My name was not on the list, 4 family members voted in Central Chennai

niran · Post by **niran** » 24 Apr 2014 11:45

Aditya_V wrote:My name was not on the list, 4 family members voted in Central Chennai

and you did not have time to check it beforehand, to busy no? it is just few clicks away from the official web site of Election commission of India. and still people are mine is not, his is not, her is not, sigh.....!

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 24 Apr 2014 11:45

Apple doesn't fall far away from the tree. Even Pappu appeared bright and smart as long as he kept his mouth shut

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 24 Apr 2014 11:48

sum wrote:
Dr. Praveen Patil ‏@5Forty3 37s

Very early trends but Bihar is seeing a neck-to-neck between BJP+ and Con-RJD, unlike 1st two phases when BJP had runaway leads by now

Shows that there is much to learn for me from the wisdom of our countrymen.