Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Apr 2014 07:49

Atri wrote:Typically, the candle light walas vote.. so do the dedicated cadres and supporters. Heck, even those who otherwise only share cute-puppy videos and like the photos of chicks, even most of them voted this time. There is huge section of people who is on internet but away from all this - it is they who did not vote.

There has been 11-13% bump in mumbai figures. That itself constitutes around 12-13 lakh extra voters. This is HUGE. Of course, I expected huger wave. lakhs of people did come out and found their names missing. If there names would have been present the voting would have been 65%.

The voting did not take place in kalyan-thane-dombivali region. That region is satirically referred to as the only Hindu-Rashtra on planet earth. The contest there became interesting when Muslims of Mumbra voted enmasse for NCP candidate and suddenly the MNS-SS rivalry took center stage. It is here where voting remained at 42%. The beneficiary as usual will mostly be NCP. In Bhiwandi, the BJP candidate was defector from NCP, kapil Patil. He came to BJP one day before filing a nomination. It was good move by Munde, but I wonder how much would the voters accept him.

Rest of Mumbai, I am quite optimistic. In Mumbai NC, there was 55% vote. The booth I was frequenting saw a flurry of slum-votes (mostly dalits from interior maharashtra) poast 16:30. That pushed the voting up. Now traditionally they vote for INC. But RPI being in NDA will help as major chunk of that came to the side of dharma.

Will it be 5/6 in Mumbai or 4/6?

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 25 Apr 2014 07:51

Lower voting in MP and Raj'n than the assembly polls needn't mean loss in lotus votes necessarily.

Since these 2 states are a straight bjp-cong fight, and the RSS has sent strict instructions to not go easy or complacent anywhere in the GOTV effort.... IMO the low turnout could also mean that cong vote has sat out and given a mental walkover. Or so I hope.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 25 Apr 2014 08:06

Report from my dad

Not only were our names on the list, more importantly, an employee from the state govt came to our doorstep two days earlier and handed over slips of identification and guidance as to which particular room of the school (which was the polling stn), we were to enter and cast our votes. It took us precisely one minute at the polling stn to cast our votes and comeout. There were many like us who got similar guidance slips. At the same time it is true that many others did not find their names and had to run about here and there. S (my aunt who is in here late 70s and lives in Mylapore) said that her name has been missed out this time and that has happened in spite of her repeated efforts over the last few months, photos being taken every time. she quoted similar examples of some others in chennai in mylapore area.

If this is not by design, this is really incompetence and bungling and someone has to be accountable for this crap. Why are so many people being disenfranchised? Hope this doesn't affect results in a big way.

Atri · Post by **Atri** » 25 Apr 2014 08:10

Muppalla wrote:Will it be 5/6 in Mumbai or 4/6?

My MMR estimates

Mumbai N - 100%.
Mumbai NE - 100%
Mumbai SC - 75%
Mumbai NC - 60%
Mumbai S - 60%
Mumbai NW - 80%
Thane - 40%
Kalyan - 40%
Bhiwandi - 50%
Raigad - 90%
Palghar - 55%
Maval (in previous phase) - 40%

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Apr 2014 08:10

meantime per TOI the Congis have opened talks and let it be known, if they get around 110-120 seats they are willing to support third front from outside if the NDA comes short and will not insist on leadership. if they get 140+ they will ask for leadership. they say many parties outside the UPA like mamata, biju, Amma might like this idea to keep the BJP out of power. even the commies are being called back as old friends from 2004 era.

----

so all the worlds crooks whose empires are in danger, will get together under the "sickular" tent to keep the BJP out.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Apr 2014 08:13

one of the things I note about commie leaders is they have very long lifespans and enjoy good health. right from Namboodiripad to jyoti basu to buddhadeb to karat to yechury...a couple decades could pass and they look/looked the same.

not sure if they use a special communist diet of organic veggies and hand milled grains only from supportive workers.

manju · Post by **manju** » 25 Apr 2014 08:15

Singha wrote:one of the things I note about commie leaders is they have very long lifespans and enjoy good health. right from Namboodiripad to jyoti basu to buddhadeb to karat to yechury...a couple decades could pass and they look/looked the same.

not sure if they use a special communist diet of organic veggies and hand milled grains only from supportive workers.

you forgot ex CM of Kerala EK Nayanar

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Apr 2014 08:35

Singha wrote:meantime per TOI the Congis have opened talks and let it be known, if they get around 110-120 seats they are willing to support third front from outside if the NDA comes short and will not insist on leadership. if they get 140+ they will ask for leadership. they say many parties outside the UPA like mamata, biju, Amma might like this idea to keep the BJP out of power. even the commies are being called back as old friends from 2004 era.

----

so all the worlds crooks whose empires are in danger, will get together under the "sickular" tent to keep the BJP out.

A repeat of 1996 is seen as the most optimistic outcome for Congress. At that time Sitaram Kesri of Congress was pulling the strings and he was openly calling Deve Gowda a 'nikama' in parliament. After a year, Gowda was out and then the rug was pulled out underneath IK Gujral. This time around it will be the Gandhi dynasty that will be pulling the strings of a 3rd front government.

As of today, I would guess that the NDA already has 200 seats. There are still some 47 seats yet to vote in UP and some 20 in Bihar staggering until May 12th. This dragged out schedule is only helping Congress, people are getting tired of such a long election. The first 4 phases were done 2 days apart up to April 12th. There is absolutely no reason why voting could not have been completed by the end of April.

A law must be passed stating the EC will get a maximum of 30 days to complete voting.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Apr 2014 08:38

Atri wrote: My MMR estimates

Mumbai N - 100%.
Mumbai NE - 100%
Mumbai SC - 75%
Mumbai NC - 60%
Mumbai S - 60%
Mumbai NW - 80%
Thane - 40%
Kalyan - 40%
Bhiwandi - 50%
Raigad - 90%
Palghar - 55%
Maval (in previous phase) - 40%

Loss of Thane and Kalyan is not good for both senas.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Apr 2014 08:39

Singha wrote:meantime per TOI the Congis have opened talks and let it be known, if they get around 110-120 seats they are willing to support third front from outside if the NDA comes short and will not insist on leadership. if they get 140+ they will ask for leadership. they say many parties outside the UPA like mamata, biju, Amma might like this idea to keep the BJP out of power. even the commies are being called back as old friends from 2004 era.

----

so all the worlds crooks whose empires are in danger, will get together under the "sickular" tent to keep the BJP out.

If the plot of BJP works, none of these worthies except Mamata (still a lot more voting remaining) will cross 20 seats. NDA can easily split of these junkies post poll.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 25 Apr 2014 08:57

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 46s
The EC is like that typical Bollywood hero's sister... Invariably murdered in the first half hour...
Collapse

niran · Post by **niran** » 25 Apr 2014 09:03

Etawah Mulla Yam is contesting against a no name former BSP walla, this chappie then went on to sit on his haunches saying that Modi wave will save him, did no door to door just Modi wave Modi wave, this seat is lost
Eta(not wah) Bjp scored 73% votes
Mathura Hemamalini of BJP 82% votes(whooping ain't it?)
Kanauj here Sapa resorted to booth capturing etc etc 400 of BLOs were told to go home by EC right on the morning of voting day
ADM a Yadav relative of Mulla Yam transfered and with booth capturing wagera Dimpill yadav scored less than 39%

Akshay yadav did better he has scored 48% but his win is not guaranteed. it still is 50/50

all in all BJP=8 rest =4

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 25 Apr 2014 09:06

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 25 Apr 2014 09:14

Singha wrote: not sure if they use a special communist diet of organic veggies and hand milled grains only from supportive workers.

No, Communists are more like vampires, sucking the blood of the people, strengthening themselves. Harkishen Singh Surjeet was born in 1649, was trained by Aurangzeb in the art of secularism and lived on since then, to the detriment of the Indics. The British chopped him to pieces once, but they forgot to stake him (you need strong measures to ensure that these degraded Abrahamics don't return), so the pieces joined back like Jarasandha and he carried on tormenting us for another century after that. What finally worked against him is Morigaoni black magic - so there is at least one Yindoo method of ensuring that these reanimated corpses can be put down.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 25 Apr 2014 09:24

The commies have completely vanished from the national discourse. Even NDTV does not give much coverage to the Karats. Now if the BJP does make it to no 2 spot in WB as per Derek O'Brien, does that not make life more difficult for the commies....either they are not handling it right due to a leadership crisis or have other issues like funding since they do not have state govts in Kerala either.

Where are the commies in the 2014 elections?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 25 Apr 2014 09:25

Rishi ‏@rishi8081 22m

@IndiaBTL especially all gujus names were missing

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 25 Apr 2014 09:26

Prem Kumar wrote:
kmkraoind wrote: NaMo and his men would have thought of all scenarios, when they first legislated "compulsory voting" in Gujarat assembly.
Instead of calling it "compulsory voting", he should call it "Right to Vote" bill

.......................

People are learning on the go. This elections are been really long.

For quick reference Dark Blue portion to vote on April 30 now. Should be a good round for NDA.

This phase saw some deaths (polling officers and security personnel) in Maoists infested places and also in Kashmir. My condolences.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 09:37

This fraud is getting bigger and bigger

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 18s

RT @IBNLivePolitics: Over 2 lakh names reportedly missing from Mumbai voters list http://ibnlive.in.com/news/over-2-lakh- ... 37-64.html … #MumbaiVoters

Alok Bhatt ‏@alok_bhatt 12m

Fact that PrithviRaj Chauhan has slammed public for not checking their names in voter list, points to the Cong game! But wat was BJP doing?

Jaishil Patel ‏@jaishil24290 13m

@alok_bhatt @anilkohli54 Candidates have been barred from distributing slips also. EC has played a mild Congi game this election in MH.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 09:44

dna ‏@dna 6m

500 hectares. Rs 50,000 crore. Why is Kamal Nath in a rush to sell prime forest land in NCR in the middle of polls? http://dnai.in/cb9X

In the heat and dust of elections, Kamal Nath has called full NCR Planning Board meeting to radically change the 'land use' of the Haryana sub region plan. He wants the board to endorse his idea of declaring 10 lakh hectaress of prime forest land a 'natural conservation zone'. This prime forest land is spread over Faridabad, Gurgaon and Aravali hills.

Sounds good on paper, doesn't it? But Natural Conservation Zone regulations permit construction on 0.5% land for tourism purposes. If you calculate 0.5% of 10 lakh hectaress, it comes to 500 hectaress of land

And here is the catch. Kamal Nath is opening the doors for builders' lobby to grab 500 hectares of prime land in Gurgaon, Aravali hills and Faridabad, and even by conservative land rates of the government, the cost of 500 hectares is no less than Rs 50,000 crore.

Sources in the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF) had opposed Kamal Nath's move on environmental grounds. And the PMO had endorsed the MOEF's stand and had prevented the Union Urban Ministry from holding meetings in February and March in this regard.

However, Kamal Nath reportedly gained permission from the Election Commission to hold the NCR Planning Board meeting today to enact his last design. Haryana Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda is fully backing Kamal Nath on the issue.

This is happening despite the fact that the Supreme Court has declared this area as forest land under the Punjab Conservation Land Act. The apex court has even declared that protected area and wildlife sanctuaries, as is this 10 lakh hectares area, shall be treated as forest area and should be governed under the Forest Act. The Aravallis have wildlife and act as catchments for lakes in the area.

The Supreme Court has also declared that 10km of area around the forest should be notified as an eco-sensitive zone. Egged on by the builders' lobby, the Hooda government hasn't done so.

Kamal Nath's name had surfaced in a conversation with corporate lobbyist Niira Radia. Tarun Das, the former chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), told Niira over the phone that he had pitched ''big time'' for Kamal Nath for the surface transport portfolio.

"Highway construction and road construction is a big priority. He (Kamal Nath) is a doer. He can make his 15% in this. You can do national service and also make money…" said Das in the tapes. Radia had responded: "This (Surface Transport Ministry under Kamal Nath) is still an ATM."

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 25 Apr 2014 09:50

Well...the Politics Party guy is going ape shit again. He is saying the BJP has won 100/117 in the 6th phase of the election! In 2009 the Congress won 36 seats of these 117 and now in 2014 will be reduced to zero.
In TN, Jaya's AIADMK has been reduced to single digits.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Apr 2014 10:06

Chennai: Election authorities lodged a police complaint against five companies at an IT park for functioning on the day of Lok Sabha polling in Tamil Nadu on Thursday in violation of rules and sent back around 2,000 employees home to enable them to vote.

Officials said they received complaints from employees of firms like Wipro in an IT park that they had been asked to report for duty despite the provision in law that employers and commercial establishments must grant holiday with wages for their employees on polling day.

"When we visited ELCOT IT Park at Sholinganallur, we found that Tech Mahindra, HCL, Sodexho, Wipro and Voltas were working as usual," Sholinganallur Revenue Inspector R Jayanthi Mala told PTI, adding this was a violation of election rules.

EC took action after complaints from employees that they had been asked to report for duty despite the provision for a holiday as per the law.

Well in advance, the government declared holiday for polls and requested IT firms to comply. A complaint has been filed with the police seeking action against the companies for flouting government poll norms, she said.

About 2,000 employees were sent out of the ELCOT premises by officials. "We have told the companies that there should be no more shifts and have locked the campus gate," she said.

This is perhaps the first time, the election authorities have taken action and filed a formal complaint against companies for working on polling day. State Chief Electoral Officer Praveen Kumar had on Wednesday warned of penal action against those violating the statutory provision giving workers paid leave on poll day.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 25 Apr 2014 10:07

vivek.rao wrote:'Only 18 percent of 33,000 Muslims in Behrampada voted till 3 pm

Perhaps they were waiting for the trend to emerge so that they can decide whom to vote

.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 10:10

There was some talk on TimesNow that later in the day SP was asking it supporters to vote for CON. In fact Arnab spoke of this during the start of this program.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 25 Apr 2014 10:16

Singha wrote:meantime per TOI the Congis have opened talks and let it be known, if they get around 110-120 seats they are willing to support third front from outside if the NDA comes short and will not insist on leadership. if they get 140+ they will ask for leadership. they say many parties outside the UPA like mamata, biju, Amma might like this idea to keep the BJP out of power. even the commies are being called back as old friends from 2004 era.

----

so all the worlds crooks whose empires are in danger, will get together under the "sickular" tent to keep the BJP out.

I posted this a month ago. This will happen if NDA doesn't get 272. All of them will gang up.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 10:26

No saar not so easy. Depends on how close or far NDA is from 272 and how many CON is able to win on its own.

What I mean is that lets say NDA is 250 and Amma has 25 and together they will have 275. A rational Amma will join the NDA and enjoy power and perks for 5 years rather than risk it with an unstable coalition. Of course there is the lure of PMship and that is the only thing which can make Amma irrational. And so it will be with all parties.

Also to have some coherence and stability there needs to be a core with some heft at the center of any coalition. None of the regional can provide that. Only CON can and so it is important that CON is reduced to < 100 on its own.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 25 Apr 2014 10:29

Suraj wrote:It's disappointing when BRFites come and post about how their extended family or themselves were missing from the voter list. You had so much time to check this before polling day. There's a sticky thread duplicated at the top of every forum here, providing voter registration advice. A few minutes checking that everyone you know who would vote was listed online, would have saved a lot of panic on polling day. I hope all those who faced trouble had a chance to go back and reconfirm against the ASD deleted voters list and still cast your votes.

To those BRFites who are based out of Maharashtra - Assembly election will be held later this year, please get yourself and your family members registered.

Comer · Post by **Comer** » 25 Apr 2014 11:05

Looks like we are back to Djinnah days

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 169902.cms

The document also says a Congress government will examine the feasibility of the next delimitation commission being mandated to ensure minorities are not "disenfranchised" by constituencies where their population is equal or more than dalits or tribals being declared as reserved.

Maybe I am reading it too much into this but this is the thin edge of the wedge here. Hindus who vote for Congress and its allies are really shooting themselves in the foot.

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 25 Apr 2014 11:12

Suraj wrote: Why is it for me, and why would it look like a CT to me ? Also, why is a twitter post from someone other than a person we're familiar with credible ? My position has always been the reverse of your implication - think through the matter rather than looking cursorily at a matter and immediately assuming malicious intent.

Looking at the MH constituencies that polled today, they primarily abut the Gujarat border. At least half of the quoted names sound Gujarati to me. I'm not familiar with MH demographic distribution, but
a) it doesn't sound unreasonable that there are lots of GJ names in what used to be GJ-heavy areas of erstwhile Bombay Presidency.
b) several posters have already stated that the ASD list should be checked if they're missing from the conventional list. One of the reasons provided is misspelling of names. If a particular name is misspelled repeatedly, that makes it even more likely that a large number of unrelated people (e.g. Parekh like HDFC's Deepak Parekh) had their common surnames misspelled.

It is for you because you refuse to consider that EC may be involved in mass deletion of names. There are multiple reports from Pune and Mumbai of absolutely massive numbers of names deleted. Even if EC has outsourced digitization of voter rolls of an outside agency, mass deletion didn't raise any eyebrows there? BTW, at least in my polling booth there was no ASD list, only the regular list was there.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 25 Apr 2014 11:12

^^ It is very clear that Congress has become an instrument for re-establishing Islamic rule in India. This is a logical extension of Islam-loving policies of Gandhi and Nehru. Hindus better finish this party before it's too late for them.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 25 Apr 2014 11:35

Deleted

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 25 Apr 2014 11:43

Merlin, as the saying goes, why attribute to malice, what can be better explained by incompetence ? I could argue that you 'refuse to consider' that the EC just screwed up. They've done a pretty good job of managing a voter roll of 815 million people. In comparison, the US, despite its vastly greater resources and simpler electoral system, has badly screwed up state and national elections within the past decade and half.

Errors in digitization aren't impossible. Further, consider that Indian languages are phonetic, but English - which is used to digitize names - is not. Misspellings and simply different but valid spelling (Kumar vs Kumaar) are possible. The lack of the ASD list or any means to address the case of voters with a reliably voting record suddenly going missing, IS a huge blind spot that the EC must address ASAP. I do not see 'sorry you're out of luck' as a valid answer to the situation where I've voted in the same location for several elections and suddenly find my name missing. In that regard, I strongly support a solution to ensure such people can vote.

The problem with implying malice is simply my own belief that it places a greater burden on the accuser to prove it. It's not that I refuse to consider tampering. I'm more willing to consider a screwup. It's basic legal parlance - an accusation of a willful act has both a greater punishment and a greater burden of proof associated with it.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 25 Apr 2014 11:53

Singha wrote:one of the things I note about commie leaders is they have very long lifespans and enjoy good health. right from Namboodiripad to jyoti basu to buddhadeb to karat to yechury...a couple decades could pass and they look/looked the same.

not sure if they use a special communist diet of organic veggies and hand milled grains only from supportive workers.

Saar, LKA looks mighty much the same since the RJB heydays...

My guess is, going by occam's razor, the truth is rather prosaic... its the quest/lust/thrust for power that, empirically at least, bestows longevity.... Only.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 11:53

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 52m

#Breaking: #BJP writes to President of India to stay appointment of Army Chief

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 53m

Patna blast mastermind SIMI-IM failed to get Modi by a whisker http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/25/p ... 16243.html …

Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 1h

PIL to be filed in Bombay HC on Monday over voter's names missing from electoral list: CNN-IBN

Election Express ‏@ElectionExpress 3m

KCR: Congress spoilt it's chances with me. Jairam Ramesh spoke against me and @digvijaya_28 tried to poach my MPs. pic.twitter.com/YapQblbGim

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 13:00

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 1h

Land that the Gandhis/Cong sold to GMR for a song...In memory of Daadi... #SilentWatchers>> @ibnlive @ndtv @timesnow pic.twitter.com/JZ57HQoMZU

nawabs · Post by **nawabs** » 25 Apr 2014 13:09

IBNLiveRealtime: EC H S Brahma to CNN-IBN: I apologise that so many were unable to cast votes. It's our responsibility to ensure every Indian is on list

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

"We can't stop people from going to court but once again I apologies and reiterate that we can't do anything about this now," the Election Commissioner said, adding that a part of the onus is also on the voters as they should have pointed out the error on March 9, the day designated to verify whether a voter's name figured on the final voters' list

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 13:24

My view 2-5 seat for NDA in TN. Anything over that should be considered a bonus. This may indeed be a statistical aberration.

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 1h

TN now a Psephologist's greatest nightmare.An analyst astounded at this chart based on random samples from 6 LS seats pic.twitter.com/MzriTnr2ic

vic · Post by **vic** » 25 Apr 2014 13:31

BRF is still obsessed with Caste Divide but the important issue I am seeing that Modi is destroying the caste divide. People of all walks of life feels like "he is one of us".

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 25 Apr 2014 13:34

EC claims on missing voter list - "it is an error and nothing can be done now" - does it stand a chance in court?

Names simply cannot vanish. The EC must be forced to explain what caused the error.
The missing count runs into lakhs and such large numbers affect the outcome of polls. The EC, of all bodies , should know this. If they did not spot this and rectify, it speaks very poorly of them and the election officer deserves a boot.
I hope the courts understand this.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 25 Apr 2014 13:36

Are the EC guys real morons.
Dont they have a guidelines in place _already_ for events of such nature?

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 25 Apr 2014 13:38

Neela wrote:EC claims on missing voter list - "it is an error and nothing can be done now" - does it stand a chance in court?

Names simply cannot vanish. The EC must be forced to explain what caused the error.
The missing count runs into lakhs and such large numbers affect the outcome of polls. The EC, of all bodies , should know this. If they did not spot this and rectify, it speaks very poorly of them and the election officer deserves a boot.
I hope the courts understand this.

Especially in the cases where entire housing society got deleted from the electoral roll.