Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 25 Apr 2014 23:12

Guys! As 5Forty3.in predicted, late surge of voters in Etawah,Kannuj,Fereozbad,Farukabad after Varanasi show seems to titled scales in BJP's favour instead of SP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 25 Apr 2014 23:29

Suraj wrote:
pankajs wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BmE3rddCQAA25FA.jpg:large
Nice tweetable picture. Any idea which party that goon is ? I know they won't make it obvious for deniability purposes.

No clue saar but the original tweet

Suryah SG ‏@iSuryah 3h

Dance of Democracy. Dravidian party culture went till queues in polling booths to shamelessly purchase votes in TN. pic.twitter.com/JtZFAbNteW

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 26 Apr 2014 00:29

350 million votes cast so far in 349 seats; 2014 elections on course to break 1984 turnout record

Indian voters have hit high notes like never before in the first six phases of the Lok Sabha elections, setting the stage for a scorching turnout record in the summer of 2014.

Traditionally, poll pundits see high turnout as a vote for change. Following Thursday’s vote in the sixth phase, 350 million Indian voters (more than the population of the US) have given their verdict in 349 of the 543 seats.

If the turnout trend holds, the record of 63.56% established in 1984 polls, held soon after the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, will be eclipsed.

“By this time, the national aggregate of turnout for all the elections held so far is 66%, as against 57.53% for the same constituencies in 2009 Lok Sabha elections,” Election Commission director general Akshay Rout had said on Thursday. “Of course, it is the highest ever.”

A 65% turnout will mean 530 million votes cast from an electorate of 815M.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 26 Apr 2014 02:11

I'm getting nervous based on what MuraliRaviji is saying. People need to check their names on the rolls and make sure they vote.

satya · Post by **satya** » 26 Apr 2014 02:24

Mort Walker wrote:I'm getting nervous based on what MuraliRaviji is saying. People need to check their names on the rolls and make sure they vote.

Sarkaar ,

If state govt. has decided to remove your name from voting list then there is almost 0 % chance of getting a chance to vote in time of election . Its for no reason that post of Tahsildar ( election ) always goes to party loyalist ( to the core ) , a trade secret perfected by Congis . He can enroll , can delete & if required keep your application at home during his whole tenure. He updates the list of voters & is the person to contact for getting the list of voters in a particular area and for no reasons he can give one list whereas make another list , inshort he is the mai-baap of Indian election .

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Apr 2014 04:42

Hari Seldon wrote:Hmmm, going by muraliravi's optimism, lotus at 180 and INC at 130 essentially means UPA3 by the backdoor. Q is, will the cong be allowed to get away with this this time too? Now that its been exposed in such a big way? If yes, then its game over, might as well fold up and convert.

Congress like Pakistan does not believe in niceties and fully mastered the covert operations. Hope BJP was not caught napping. Too late. Tsunami or not, if there are voter suppression and voter fraud techniques, it is UPA3. Look at MSM in the last few days, doorknob goosewami is so pissed at Modi and BJP.

Could BJP have prevented this? BJP politicians who sided with Congress are accountable, but they will go Scott free.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Apr 2014 04:54

What is happening in BJP? They have sent very weak spokespersons to the TV in the last few days. It used to be strong contingent few months ago. Something fishy going on. 400% guarantee.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 26 Apr 2014 05:32

SwamyG wrote:What is happening in BJP? They have sent very weak spokespersons to the TV in the last few days. It used to be string contingent few months ago. Something fishy going on. 400% guarantee.

The "strong" spokespersons are now busy either contesting the elections themselves or helping to manage the campaigns in different states. Nobody takes these TV channels seriously, they are just for entertainment. Electoral battle on the ground is much more important.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Apr 2014 05:36

i am more concerned at this EVM fraud system than these stupid tv guys.

Vriksh · Post by **Vriksh** » 26 Apr 2014 06:50

What is the procedure for repolling. How can you blame the victim of a crime, in this case the crime of deleting voters from list by election commission without intimation. There is no proof that EC official s came to the house before they deleted the names. I'd they had then the letter would have reached the voters and they could have taken action.

I know in powai area of Mumbai nearly 30% of old timers were unable to vote and many had not shifted addresses in 20 years.

Given this I strongly believe that people were deleted summarily in order to achieve political objectives

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 26 Apr 2014 06:53

Highest ever poll percentage in Assam-80.08% overall.
3rd and final phase:
Korajhar-80.94
Barpeta-84.45
Guwahati-78.34
Mangaldai-81.50
Nagaon-82.20

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Apr 2014 07:00

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... ers-probe/

15 Nagaland booths see more than 100% turnout, EC orders probe

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 26 Apr 2014 07:15

Oops! wrong thread

Deleted

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 26 Apr 2014 07:34

Suraj wrote:350 million votes cast so far in 349 seats; 2014 elections on course to break 1984 turnout record
Indian voters have hit high notes like never before in the first six phases of the Lok Sabha elections, setting the stage for a scorching turnout record in the summer of 2014.

Traditionally, poll pundits see high turnout as a vote for change. Following Thursday’s vote in the sixth phase, 350 million Indian voters (more than the population of the US) have given their verdict in 349 of the 543 seats.

If the turnout trend holds, the record of 63.56% established in 1984 polls, held soon after the assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, will be eclipsed.

“By this time, the national aggregate of turnout for all the elections held so far is 66%, as against 57.53% for the same constituencies in 2009 Lok Sabha elections,” Election Commission director general Akshay Rout had said on Thursday. “Of course, it is the highest ever.”
A 65% turnout will mean 530 million votes cast from an electorate of 815M.

What more proof do we need of a wave? I was a witness to the 1984 wave. People simply wanted to see Rajeev G in Delhi and it was a presidential election where even a lamp post contesting in the name of Congress would have won! I think we will see some big surprises to our delight this time. We are just 2 weeks away from a new dawn!

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 26 Apr 2014 07:48

KrishG wrote:I'm now completely sure about TimesNow being paid money by Congress. Today just plugged into the debate and big banners read "Shocker from Ramdev..Baba Ramdev insults Dalits", "What does the BJP have to say about this?".

First time I have seen this Kancha Illaiah dude on TV. The squeaky-voiced mofo was waving his finger and getting red in the face accusing BR of suggesting pappu was having s*x with Dalit women. It looks like the Dalits he purports to represent have given him a kick in the teeth by supporting BJP and reiterating their Hindu identity and this irrelevant jerk should be ignored and relegated to the dustbin of history.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 26 Apr 2014 07:52

It seems that this is the single largest increase in turnout from the previous election. Should be 9% difference by the time it is over. If high turnout reflects desire for change, then NDA should get 300+. There's really no other way to interpret the turnout difference that I am aware of.

Two analysts from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch have studied data from Lok Sabha elections over the past 40 years to conclude what pollsters often share as conventional wisdom: that a high voter turnout is likely to be a vote for change. The analysts, Jyotivardhan Jaipuria and Anand Kumar, say they have found that voter turnout in general elections in India has gone up by over 4 per cent only on three occasions over the last 40 years. Twice, it resulted in a change of government at the Centre.

The once that it did not was the 1984 elections, which saw a high turnout, but saw the Congress returned with a bigger majority. "The third instance was the emotional election post the assassination of Indira Gandhi which saw Rajiv Gandhi getting elected. So high turnout has been accompanied by a more emotive electorate," the two analysts said. In the five phases of polling held so far in these general elections, voter turnout has averaged 68 per cent as compared to 58 per cent across the whole election in 2009, according to Election Commission data. That, say the Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysts, could indicate an advantage for the BJP and its national alliance, the NDA.

However, polling has only taken place for 232 Lok Sabha seats so far. Another 311 seats will go to the polls across four phases between April 24 and May 12. Votes will be counted on May 16. TV Mohandas Pai, chairman of Manipal Global Education and former director of Infosys, told NDTV on Monday, "The voter turnout is up by 10 per cent across India and the message there is for change, for something new... Will it result in a BJP government, a Khichdi government of all kind of other parties coming together? I don't know, but certainly there's change in the air and that is very good."

After the conclusion of the biggest phase of elections on April 17, the BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi tweeted, "Large turnout in the phases held till now shows Congress' departure is certain! Focus must now be on electing a stable & strong Govt." Most opinion polls have predicted that the BJP will be the single largest party. However, Indian elections are notoriously hard to forecast. Opinion polls wrongly predicted a victory for a BJP-led alliance in elections in 2004 and underestimated the Congress's winning margin in 2009.

The Bank of America analysts also noted that the voting percentage is going up secularly, partly led by a younger population and partly by greater awareness created by the Election Commission. "The last Lok Sabha election too saw a 2 per cent rise in voter turnout. If we look at the state elections over the past five years, most of them have seen a higher voter turnout relative to that in the previous elections... So part of the increase in voter turnout may just be a natural phenomenon," the analysts said.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 26 Apr 2014 08:00

satya wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:I'm getting nervous based on what MuraliRaviji is saying. People need to check their names on the rolls and make sure they vote.
If state govt. has decided to remove your name from voting list then there is almost 0 % chance of getting a chance to vote in time of election . Its for no reason that post of Tahsildar ( election ) always goes to party loyalist ( to the core ) , a trade secret perfected by Congis . He can enroll , can delete & if required keep your application at home during his whole tenure. He updates the list of voters & is the person to contact for getting the list of voters in a particular area and for no reasons he can give one list whereas make another list , inshort he is the mai-baap of Indian election .

So is there any redress for a person who finds out his name is not on the list, say, a week before election? Is it already too late, or can anything be done?

Perhaps this aspect also needs an 'Accountability Initiative' after elections, especially in cases where the actions are deliberate (lakhs of voter names going missing seems more than an accident).

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 26 Apr 2014 08:19

RajeshA wrote:Sardar ji has "adorned" the Indian PM seat. Americans should be told to back off or their Embassy would be thrown out completely.

+108

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 26 Apr 2014 08:28

Hari Seldon wrote: Q is, will the cong be allowed to get away with this this time too? Now that its been exposed in such a big way? If yes, then its game over, might as well fold up and convert.

If Cong pulls this kind of trick, the prognosis is not good for the world. If god forbid things to south in India and escalates to even the beginning of a civil war, every part othe world would be affected. I am sure handlers of congi Nac and other extra constitutional persons and ogres would be as stud to let this happen. Or so one hopes (taking the phrase from our psychihitoryan).

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 26 Apr 2014 08:38

http://www.mid-day.com/articles/electio ... s/15254086

Around 50.32 lakh names are missing from the voters’ list in the state, with 12.58 lakh from Mumbai and Thane district itself. State EC officials, off the record, said the revision of electoral rolls was done by district collectorates.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Apr 2014 08:40

finger point begins.. and none cares to correct the system. phuck!

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Apr 2014 08:42

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... aign=cppst

Lok Sabha polls 2014: Congress upgrades target to above 140 seats

NEW DELHI: After six phases of elections involving 349 Lok Sabha constituencies, the Congress leadership feels much less intimidated - compared to when poll process began - by poll projections that have predicted a 'Modi wave' and BJP leader LK Advani's blog that Congress would not even win 100 seats.

Based on feedback from state units and its state governments in areas where polls have taken place, the Congress leadership is emboldened to predict over 140 seats for itself (its tally was 206 in 2009), around the same figure that helped it cobble up UPA-1 regime, ..

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2014 08:47

And district collectorates are run by State govt. Who is running Maharashtra. Govt?

Raja · Post by **Raja** » 26 Apr 2014 09:21

Wow, this thread has become unreadable. *tunes out till results are out*

Rahul Mehta · Post by **Rahul Mehta** » 26 Apr 2014 09:30

The voter-list sabotage in Mumbai was NOT done by Sonia. It was done by CIA funded by Saudies. proof? Well, you dont have proof that Sonia did it either. So equal-equal

One should ONLY blame criminal, and never victim. So only Govt staff needs to be blamed for the criminal act of removing 600,000 voters from voter list.

But it is also a FACT that BJP-leaders didnt develop an information tech system to compare old and new voter-lists, then they would have found this discrepency loooong back. But leaders never asked workers to develop such a system. Instead, leaders asked workers to sepdn all time in slogan shouting, mask wearing etc etc. And so this massive sabotage remained undetected.

Moral of the story is --- along with media management and slogan shouting, we need people who can develop some clerical and IT systems.

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 26 Apr 2014 09:35

Last minute bravado and desperate measures cannot trump fundamentals and planning. NDA will get 300 plus. Congress will be wiped out. That's what the trends of last few weeks add to, in my opinion, capped by the coronation at Varanasi for what was actually just a filing the nomination event. Unprecedented in Indian electoral history.

Longer term, for the next few election cycles, Modi and Shah will put in place the structure of a one-party system for India. I will be surprised if that is not their thinking. We had such an arrangement till 1977. So 25 years of a different sort of one-party rule is plausible (first at national level, then at state, and then down at the municipal level). All of course driven by a new generation of leaders we haven't yet seen (this means that the deadwood of the BJP will be set adrift).

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 26 Apr 2014 09:53

If true..am dhoti shivering..full time

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 26 Apr 2014 10:01

^^ Election commission is truly becoming a joke. And what is with this fetish with EVMs? Why can't they just go back to paper ballots?

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Apr 2014 10:03

Hmmmm , so many goof ups

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 26 Apr 2014 10:04

krishnan wrote:Hmmmm , so many goof ups

Too many goofups I'd say, if I didn't know better (and I don't).

Like some wise man once said:

Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, thrice is enemy action - take cover!

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 26 Apr 2014 10:06

after so much hard work by namo and all those youth , if congi goons still come back to power, that would be saddest day for india

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 26 Apr 2014 10:21

Jingos, 5forty3 analysis for TamilNadu is out. The prediction is minimum 6 seats, maximum 10 seats for NDA in TamilNadu.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 26 Apr 2014 10:22

BJP uneasy in Bihar.

http://www.thestatesman.net/news/51481- ... bihar.html

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 26 Apr 2014 10:23

TamilNadu numbers seem reasonable. This is rooted in ground level reality. Dreaming about 30+ for NDA in TN is , well, just dreaming. NaMo has to deliver sixers in Gujarat, MP, Rajasthan, UP and Bihar.

rohitv · Post by **rohitv** » 26 Apr 2014 10:25

SwamyG wrote:What is happening in BJP? They have sent very weak spokespersons to the TV in the last few days. It used to be strong contingent few months ago. Something fishy going on. 400% guarantee.

I think the viewership of English MSM will be in lakhs. It no doubt causes heartburn but is of little consequence.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 10:33

Excerpts from ECI Press Release of March 5th announcing General Election to 16thLoksabha 2014

ELECTORAL ROLLS

Electoral Rolls have been revised with reference to 1-1-2014 as the qualifying date and have been finally published in all States and Union Territories. The process of continuous updation of electoral rolls will continue till the last date of filing nominations.

The total electorate in the country as per final published E-rolls in reference to 01.01.2014 is approximately 814.5 million compared to 713 million in 2009. This marks an increase of more than 100 million electors. There has been a remarkable increase in the enrollment of electors in the age group of 18 to 19 years. Over 23 million electors are in this age group. Electors in the age group of 18 to 19 years now constitute 2.88% of total electors, against 0.75% in 2009. Commission allowed enrollment of transgender persons with gender written as "Others" in the electoral rolls since 2012. The number of electors enrolled as "Others" gender is 28,314. Parliament amended the Representation of the People Act, 1950, allowing enrollment of Indian citizens living overseas as electors.11,844 overseas electors have been enrolled in the current electoral rolls. There are 13,28,621 service electors in the electoral rolls.

PHOTO ELECTORAL ROLLS AND ELECTOR PHOTO IDENTITY CARDS(EPIC)

The country had gone to polls with Photo Electoral Rolls for the first time in 2009. In that year the State of Assam, Jammu & Kashmir and Nagaland did not have Photo Electoral Rolls (PERs), and Elector Photo Identity Cards (EPICs) were not distributed to electors in Assam and Nagaland. Now all States and UTs have PERs Rolls. Photographs of 98.64% electors are already printed in the electoral
rolls. 95.64% electors have been given EPIC. The percentage of electors with EPIC and photographs in electoral rolls is likely to increase further before the elections. 17 States and UTs, viz. Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry, Goa, Daman & Diu, NCT of Delhi, Lakshadweep, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, TamilNadu, Tripura, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Dadra & Nagar
Haveli and Kerala have photographs of 100% electors in the electoral rolls. 16 States and UTs have 100% EPIC coverage. These are
-Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura, NCT of Delhi, Laskhadweep, Puducherry, Punjab, Haryana, Himachal radesh, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Kerala. Remaining electors are advised to submit their
photographs to obtain their EPIC from the concerned Electoral Registration Officer (ERO) urgently. CEOs have been directed to Maximize photo and EPIC coverage in the electoral rolls before the elections.

MEASURES FOR FACILITATING FRANCHISE OF EPIC HOLDERS–SPECIAL CAMPS TO BE ORGANISED

Commission has received complaints that some persons having EPIC have in the past been denied the right to vote because their name was not found in the electoral rolls. It is clarified here that only those persons are allowed to vote at a Polling Station who are enrolled in the electoral roll for that Polling Station. EPIC is only an identity document and does not confer the right of vote on any person, whose name is not in the electoral roll. It is also clarified that the law does not allow inclusion of names in the electoral roll after 3.00PM on the last date of filing nominations, till the electoral process is complete. All persons are, therefore, advised that they must check that their names are in electoral rolls. Facility of checking is provided on the website of Chief Electoral Officers. Facility to check the names in electoral rolls through SMS has also been provided. The number on which SMS is to be sent is different for each State and shall be publicized by Chief Electoral Officers. In addition the Commission has directed that a special camp shall be organized at all Polling Stations on 9th March, 2014 (Sunday) for this purpose. In this camp, the electoral roll for that Polling Station shall be pasted on the wall of the Polling Station and shall also be read out in public, so that people can check that their name is in the electoral roll. If the name of any person eligible to be enrolled is left out for some reason or has been wrongly deleted, such a person should immediately fill application for inclusion of name in Form 6 and hand it over to the Booth Level Officer (BLO), who will be present in the camp at the Polling Station. The BLO shall then deliver the form to the ERO, who will include the name if the applicant is found eligible to be enrolled as an elector

This was widely televised as well.

For Complaints
http://www.eci-citizenservicesforoffice ... fault.aspx

Link to Electoral Rolls
http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/Linkto_erollpdf.aspx

List of claims and objections
http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/linkto_claimsobj.aspx

Online Registration at ECI website ( CEOs may have their own portal for registration as well)
http://eci-citizenservices.nic.in/default.aspx

Seach website from ECI( Not all states are included as it is getting updated )
http://electoralsearch.in/

FAQ
http://eci.nic.in/eci_main1/FAQs_25102013.aspx

Poor people are very conscious about their Voting rights and they know if their name is deleted from ER their importance would go away. They take efforts to get their names included. The lowly paid official called booth level officer can mingle with them easily and at their wavelength. WHILE high and mighty fail to either go the office of such lowly scum of Govt of India or even allow them to enter their carefully sanitised surroundings. Neither are they conscious of their voting rights or its importance. In my experience , mostly educated, employed and highly paid , tech savy people act as Morons and show callous disregard to their rights and obligations and then blame others including that lowly scum of Govt of India/State representing ECI . But he/she is responsible for maintaining electoral rolls. And ECI just informed that from 2009 till date 10 Cr voters have been added. It also informed how names could be added. If deep@k P@rekh's name was missing, I can't imagine him moving his a$$ to get his name included, well that act is below his dignity. he is dealing with high and mighty. Unfortunately, he is not a VIP in Govt of India list so no special effort would be taken by ERO to ensure his name included. He and likewise thousands of others would have to make efforts to get their names included. Facility is provided for online registration as well for such soft bottom persons but then they have to ALLOW that lowly paid scum of Govt of India/States/ECI to visit their sanitised homes and verify details. Of course Special camps are of no avail as they would not step into smelly dark small offices . No wonder poor people get their names included easily and correctly. And sure some BDs would be their as these scums are paid less by any standard nor are they respected by High and mighty. There was a time when people used to welcome postman into their homes.Do you know your postman??

merlin · Post by **merlin** » 26 Apr 2014 10:36

I wonder what Gadkari and Munde were doing in Mumbai and Pune when such mass scale voter deletions happened. BJP state units are in such a royal mess everywhere.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 10:38

krishnan wrote:http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... ers-probe/

15 Nagaland booths see more than 100% turnout, EC orders probe

Most likely it would be due to EDCs.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 10:39

Vriksh wrote:What is the procedure for repolling. How can you blame the victim of a crime, in this case the crime of deleting voters from list by election commission without intimation. There is no proof that EC official s came to the house before they deleted the names. I'd they had then the letter would have reached the voters and they could have taken action.

I know in powai area of Mumbai nearly 30% of old timers were unable to vote and many had not shifted addresses in 20 years.

Given this I strongly believe that people were deleted summarily in order to achieve political objectives

You have his number and name, address. You can call him/her.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 26 Apr 2014 10:45

SaiK wrote:i am more concerned at this EVM fraud system than these stupid tv guys.

Well Saik. I did check similar instances when LED lights were glowing for wrong button. Votes don't get recorded for wrong button. It is circuit malfunction in may cases. But in all cases , EVMs are replaced with reserves available. However BEL and ECIL could have made system more robust, I think they are failing in their duty but on the other hand think of sheer number of EVMs moving from one place to another in tropical climate, hot, dusty and humid. Some systems are likely to malfunction. As for EVM manipulation by remote etc, they are sheer fantasy of some wisecracks.