Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Apr 2014 16:28

Gus wrote:Ballot stuffing was quite common in those days. Paper ballot is not like an amazing simple and foolproof method.

+1. Laloo had a further lovely method, if my RSS sources are right. He a perfect scheme to ensure he got elected. He got the same ballot papers as the election ballot paper (for every seat) printed, and had them pre-stamped for Laloo candidates by his chelas. The guy who votes in Laloo ruled villages had to take the fake-Laloo-pre-stamped ballot papers from the party agent outside, drop the fake ballot paper in the ballot box in the booth, and hand over the real ballot paper to the Laloo agent outside. Beat that for perfect simplicity of schemes.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 26 Apr 2014 16:44

krishnan wrote:BJP should try getting into opposition first if possible in TN, should give tough time to AMMA

Even that is a good distance away. The first step is to take it further, and build a cadre in the entire state, and develop a proper CM candidate. What the BJP is doing is breaking the Congress vote (present and past), and taking a large share of the national parties vote, plus some caste vote. Most of the BJP vote is ex-Congress vote, many of its leaders are kin of Congress leaders in the state (Lalitha Kumaramangalam (wife of P Subbarayan's grandson), Tamilisai Soundararajan (daughter of Kumari Anandan), etc). IIRC, even Thirunavakkarasar was part of the Congress. There was also talk that Srikkanth or part of TTK's family might get into BJP. For the moment, TN is still fully in the grip of the regional parties, and the ability of a national party to make it into the State Assembly on its own, is quite limited. But as the Dravidian ideology seems to have run its course, there is hope that the BJP can expand as the `Development party' with a strong Hindu flavour.

Assuming that the 5forty3 guys have got it right, and that the NDA has got 26% of the vote, about 5% is PMK vote, about 7-8% is DMDK vote, and about 3% is MDMK vote (all based on past shares). That leaves BJP alone with about 10% of the vote (I am being generous here - Kongu parties easily have about 1-2% of the vote, and IJK also has a small vote all over the state). If you look back, this is what the Congress traditionally had in the 80s - about 10-15% of the vote. Maybe with the NaMo wave, BJP might have got another couple percent of the vote. All in all, BJP has only about 10-12% of the total vote in TN. This is a very substantial number for the BJP to start building on for the coming Assembly elections. From now on, any further progress is straight up to the local unit. Modi has done what he can for the barely alive party in TN. Let us see where the local unit can take the BJP now.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 26 Apr 2014 17:00

Gus wrote:Ballot stuffing was quite common in those days. Paper ballot is not like an amazing simple and foolproof method.

In that case, whole world knew about it. Electronic stuffing is much harder to discover.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 26 Apr 2014 17:07

no more posts about evm vs paper.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 26 Apr 2014 17:43

Any photos of Modi's rally crowds ?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 17:50

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 1h

This must be a joke RT @visaraj: BTW; Tarun Gogoi blames BJP for long hours of power cuts in Assam

bhargava · Post by **bhargava** » 26 Apr 2014 18:00

Gowhati Jalukbari

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Apr 2014 18:08

James B wrote:
Sarkari beti Priyanka Vadra must leave her Lodhi Estate bungalow

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/26/t ... 16729.html
Bianca Vadra occupying government property without holding any government/constitutional position for 17 years. What did NDA govt. do? She should have been booted out then itself.

These are the entitlements that these people (Congies/MSM/so-called intellectuals) fear that they will lose once Modi comes to power.

Not just leave, they should pay the rent retroactively - all of it!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 18:08

MediaCrooks ‏@mediacrooks 1h

27000Cr jobs? LOL! When you keep lying Pappu.. The lies get BIGGER like Balloons @INCIndia @Timesnow @ndtv @ibnlive pic.twitter.com/8864qbJM5H

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 18:11

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 1h

Tamil Nadu final poll percentage is 73.67 http://www.niticentral.com/2014/04/26/t ... 16850.html …

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 26 Apr 2014 18:17

Cong following scorched earth policy to make sure even Modi is not able to do much to develop India. Truly, this party is a giant squid wrapped around the face of the country.

UPA hurts India as it exits
Arvind Panagariya | Mar 11, 2014, 12.08 AM IST

Legend has it that 2,500 years ago to the year, when Darius the Great invaded Scythia, retreating Scythians destroyed food supplies and poisoned the wells. Starved and dehydrated, a large number of soldiers in Darius's army died and he eventually conceded defeat.

The only plausible interpretation of the actions by Congress in the last several months is that it has adopted this scorched earth strategy as it retreats from government. Its recent actions seem to serve one principal purpose: make the restoration of growth and the task of rebuilding the nation as difficult as possible for the successor government.

The greater the failure of the successor government, the better would the outgoing government look by comparison. Ironically, the most pernicious act of the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government is related directly to land: the new land acquisition act.

The latter administers an all-round preemptive blow to efforts of a future government to put India back on its feet. For most public projects, the act makes land acquisition such a long-drawn-out affair and land prices so high that only a handful of projects will remain economically viable and capable of being implemented.

A recent report in this newspaper has this to say about the act: "The new land acquisition law that came into force this January, touted as one of the signal achievements of the UPA government, is turning into a major obstacle in the way of a key infrastructure project being pushed keenly by the Prime Minister's Office." The report goes on to describe how cost of land required to build the Delhi-Jaipur Expressway has trebled to Rs 18,000 crore, with total cost rising to a gigantic Rs 32,000 crore as a result of the money that must be paid as compensation for the land on which the highway is to be built.

The government is now back to the drawing board to figure how the project can be made viable. Even building rural roads under Pradhan Mantri's Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), a programme expressly meant to aid India's rural poor, will turn into a nightmare.

And this will be in the name of protecting 'poor' landowners, notwithstanding the fact that land reform has had little success in India. Except in a handful of states, much of the land is actually owned by large and wealthy farmers.

The new land acquisition act will also make already hard to implement large-scale private projects yet harder to implement. All the provisions of the new act on compensation apply to all private acquisitions of 50 acres of land in urban and 100 acres in rural areas.

According to some calculations, this would render land an order of magnitude more expensive in almost all locations in India than in any other country on the face of the earth. This is why entrepreneurs looking for land will first look on Mars before doing so in India.

Sadly, the national leadership of Bharatiya Janata Party's (BJP), which loathed the idea of Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi coming to rule at the Centre for fear that he would destroy the cozy existence it has enjoyed for the last decade even sitting in opposition, unwittingly and shortsightedly aided UPA in scorching the earth. It went on to vote for nearly every populist bill UPA brought to the floor of Parliament without stopping to think that it, and not UPA, might have to live with the consequences. But now that the chances of a Modi victory look bright, it will find out how it has shot itself in the foot.

UPA sins do not end with the land acquisition act. Appointment of the Seventh Pay Commission and hike in subsidised gas cylinders from 9 to 12 are part of the same strategy.

So also the increase in MNREGA wage to Rs 175 per day on average and the last-minute attempt to raise dearness allowance to 100% of the base salary, notwithstanding the fact that it was raised to 90% only this past July.

But perhaps the worst poison pill is UPA's attempt to push as many as nine ordinances and clear vast numbers of projects on literally the last possible day before Election Commission's Model Code of Conduct was expected to kick in. Only sage advice from the president held back the government's hand from pushing the vast majority of these ordinances.

Even so, it was not deterred from introducing reservation for the 90 million-strong Jat community in nine states in central government jobs and admissions to central educational institutions — and from granting special category status to the newly-created Seemandhra state for five years.

Rarely has a democratic government consciously inflicted such damage on the nation at its exit.

The writer is professor of Indian political economy at Columbia University.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 26 Apr 2014 18:22

On lying I have a good example. I have lived in hostel since my nursery days. I must have been in class 2 or 3. We kids use to brag about everything. So there was one this kid, whose bragging would cross limits many time. So one day he was explaining he had a big garden. So we all kids started how big gardens we had, so by the third or 4th kid, the garden had become bigger, something like a football ground (still reasonable). Then came this dude. He said his garden was ver very big, how big, it was 200 km long, it took him two days to cover it in his jeep. We all kids started vehemently opposing him, no it cant be, that's just too much. He realized his mistake (we were 9-10 years of age). So he corrected the breadth of his garden, it was only few meters (or as we said 5 hand, 5 haath itna bada tha). Let's see if Rahul Gandhi is as smart as my 10 yr old friend at that time. He may say 2700 carore jobless, but the population is 100 people.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 18:53

digvijaya singh ‏@digvijaya_28 1h

Heard a slogan in Telengana " 1 CR +2 CR = KCR ".

Chandan Chauhan ‏@chandan_chauhan 1h

@digvijaya_28 @cvoter Diggy raja, you did not mention the full story. Actually it gose like this : 1CR + 2CR + KCR = 7RCR.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 26 Apr 2014 19:05

Sachin Reddy ‏@snsachinnandu 18m
Small revisions in our Karnataka Exit-poll projections:

Total 28
BJP 12
Con 14
JDS 2

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 26 Apr 2014 19:10

panduranghari wrote:
IndraD wrote:
of all persons why NDTiwari to seek blessings, rajnath ji?
Amazing. RNS is just another average run on the mill leader who just happens to be the president of BJP. Without NaMo this ship would have long sunk. No wonder this vote is not for BJP- irrespective of what Sanku ji thinks - this is a vote for NaMo.

Never again should such a situation be allowed to arise. That I hope will be NaMo ji's legacy.

Find out no. of "Pahadi" Brahamins in Lucknow + Rita Bahuguna Joshi, a "Pahadi", as Congress candidate. He can't afford to lose, otherwise what will happen to predictions by his astrologer.

"Pahadi"= From mountains (of Uttarakhanda)

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Apr 2014 19:44

Rajdeep Chakraborty ‏@irajdeep 16m
BJP Releases Video http://bit.ly/1lg26Xz Showing Bogus Voting iN Jeda Polling Centre, Jasrana, Firozabad, U.P. India

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 26 Apr 2014 19:46

waiting for Modi

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 26 Apr 2014 19:48

Paul wrote:How is that Knave Mani Aiyar doing in his constutuency? Any update?

Per 5Forty3.in, EC will be richer by this scoundrel's deposit money. Rejoice!

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 26 Apr 2014 20:06

vivek.rao wrote:
Rajdeep Chakraborty ‏@irajdeep 16m
BJP Releases Video http://bit.ly/1lg26Xz Showing Bogus Voting iN Jeda Polling Centre, Jasrana, Firozabad, U.P. India

Probably all are voting to BJP

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Apr 2014 20:27

it just looks like things being made ready and wired up in some central depot.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 26 Apr 2014 20:36

Singha wrote:it just looks like things being made ready and wired up in some central depot.

It is not this photo but the video linked above which is the topic of the tweet.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 26 Apr 2014 20:54

KLP Dubey wrote:
Also see the tweets below for what they are worth:

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
TN experts @prasannavishy and @gajamani have analyzed TN http://5forty3.in/2014/04/modi-vs-lady-vs-enga-daddy/ … but NDA could take 15+ based on raw numbers! #Methinks

While i do not have any info to doubt these peoples's integrity and intentions, but these guys some times use each other's data and analysis; and also seems to use each other's website and services. A mistake by one will be picked up and spread. So take it with a pinch of salt.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Apr 2014 21:34

http://www.pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=79881

list of padma awardees for 2014. noted sickulars we know

shabana azmi
mira nair

there are some strange ones like panagariya!

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 26 Apr 2014 22:12

Why does the press information bureau have an "urdu" section?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 26 Apr 2014 22:15

Rajnath seeking NDTiwari blessing clicks with media report that section of Brahmins are upset with MMJoshi sent to Kanpur and some other candidates not getting tickets, Singhji apparently sending good feelers to Brahmins, else why was media invited to NDTiwari's house?

Rony · Post by **Rony** » 26 Apr 2014 22:16

Look at the picture and details

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Apr 2014 22:35

Do not forget that RNS was that part of the BJP which thanks to actions of its leaders almost was wiped out of UP. He is just one of those leaders from UP who would get into appeasement and dhimmitude in the blink of the eye. He is lucky to have become president of BJP at the right time otherwise I don't see any special attribute in him except for latching onto NaMo.
What was the need of visiting a congressman ? I dont see any Congress or SP leader visiting BJP leaders.
You mean Brahmins would not vote for ND Tiwary (of illegal child and sex tape fame) and Rita Bahuguna (Who is she once again?) but mysteriously would vote for RNS just because he visited Tiwary and these are the people who claim to be ABV v1.1.

And once again, who is upset with MMJ being sent to Kanpur except for poor Kanpur voters.
This so called darling of Brahmins barely managed to save his Varanasi seat last time.
What has MMJ done for Brahmins to deserve their special love and loyalty except for share the caste.
All these are spins on something which is clear as daylight that career politicians like to network and keep everyone happy and in turn benefit each other.

These are congress pasand candidate who would be equally at ease in Congress just like Vaghela is.

yvijay · Post by **yvijay** » 26 Apr 2014 22:38

^If you look at all the interviews in Varanasi, everybody is saying same thing. If not for Modi, BJP would have lost the seat. Even BJP workers were hurling expletives against MMJ.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Apr 2014 22:44

Rightly said Yvijay.

This is NaMo v/s rest of political class elections. No other way to read this election. No one talks about MP or chattisgarh or TN or Goa or any other place but Gujarat.
BJP just happens to be the party that NaMo ji is associated with. He is the lion from Gir forest that has set cat among the pigeons.

He is practically challenging the pope in vatican.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 26 Apr 2014 22:44

VikasRaina wrote:Do not forget that RNS was that part of the BJP which thanks to actions of its leaders almost was wiped out of UP. He is just one of those leaders from UP who would get into appeasement and dhimmitude in the blink of the eye. He is lucky to have become president of BJP at the right time otherwise I don't see any special attribute in him except for latching onto NaMo.
What was the need of visiting a congressman ? I dont see any Congress or SP leader visiting BJP leaders.
You mean Brahmins would not vote for ND Tiwary (of illegal child and sex tape fame) and Rita Bahuguna (Who is she once again?) but mysteriously would vote for RNS just because he visited Tiwary and these are the people who claim to be ABV v1.1.

And once again, who is upset with MMJ being sent to Kanpur except for poor Kanpur voters.
This so called darling of Brahmins barely managed to save his Varanasi seat last time.
What has MMJ done for Brahmins to deserve their special love and loyalty except for share the caste.
All these are spins on something which is clear as daylight that career politicians like to network and keep everyone happy and in turn benefit each other.

These are congress pasand candidate who would be equally at ease in Congress just like Vaghela is.

There exists schism between "Pahadi" and "Maidani" Brahamins. Uttarakhanda will vote for BJP but in Allahabad and Lucknow, being a minority they will go for Rita Bahuguna. When UK used to be part of UP, Pahadis B will migrate to plains for jobs. Most have fond memories of Tiwari, being UP CM, facilitating that migration. But I agree with your assessment of RNS. He isn't worth national scene.

biswas · Post by **biswas** » 26 Apr 2014 23:45

SanjayC wrote: Reminds me of an exchange between Russian and American space scientists.

American scientists explained to Russians a unique challenge they were grappling with. American astronauts were facing a problem in space: they had to write records and maintain logs, but the damn pens won't work as lack of gravity will play havoc with flow of ink. The American scientists were burning midnight oil to solve the problem and invent a pen that will work perfectly in space. "So how have you solved this problem"? they asked Russians. The Russians replied: "We use pencils."

EVMs are the zero-gravity pens of election commission while the whole world uses pencils (paper ballots). Paper ballots don't have LED lights that glow in the wrong place. They don't record wrong votes if you have stamped some other party. They don't have a circuit malfunction. They need not be made more robust with extra engineering. A sheer number of paper ballots can be easily moved from one place to another in tropical climate. But then, some people prefer pens in space.

Not really relevant, but that American vs Russian scientists story is a massive internet myth.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 23:46

TIMES NOW ‏@timesnow 4h

Mother-son duo tried to save Hasan Ali who faces money laundering charges, says Modi

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 4h

In most daring attack in this election season.Modi directly attacks Sonia-Rahul and links them with Hasan Ali.Looks like all out war by BJP

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 4h

#NaMoIn3D Mumbai, Pune have been worrisome. EC's list with missing names is disturbing. But I'm sure EC will take care of it.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 26 Apr 2014 23:48

niran, any feedback from the field ?

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 26 Apr 2014 23:48

Personally I think and I could be totally wrong here since this observation is based upon my information from DDM, no other vote bank means anything except when either it is backed up by Muslim vote bank (if there really exist any such beast) or when all voters get together breaking the monoply of Muslim vote bank. Everything else is anti-incumbency or presence of new kid on the block.
Not for nothing every politician is chasing or is being forced to chase this mythical Muslim vote bank from Mamta and Gogoi in the east to Amma and MuKa and Cong in the south to 'Sick' leaders in MH in the west to world famous Muslim vote chasers of 'Ganga-jamuna tehzeeb'.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 26 Apr 2014 23:53

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 4h

#NaMoIn3D When media asked him whether there's a Modi wave, he responded by saying there's no wave http://bit.ly/1hAuez2

NitiCentral.com ‏@NitiCentral 4h

#NaMoIn3D But has he ever noticed anything? Price rise, corruption, mama-bhanja's misdeeds? Has he ever noticed anything?

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 26 Apr 2014 23:53

my trust in congress ability to manage seats individually is exemplary and it seems to be keeping my trust.

1) Note the happenings of Bihar, Nitish is sacrificing himself to halt Modi, guess who just got another 10 seats?
2) saw ndtv lately, saw who they are projecting? Mayawati - and guess who pravin patil was talking about coming to bjp help, guess who just lost 5-10 seats?
3) saw evm happenings in maharashtra? guess which seats were they done in?

I see the same thing repeating all over the states. Congress is playing the game which it is excellent in, the margins game.

They are saying Modi can win his seat his 10 lakh majority for all they care, but they will make sure the bjp loses the low margin seats. They are saying, "I have only one leg and will never get the second leg. What we will make sure is that our competitors lose both their legs, thus by default we win."

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 00:02

The real test of a wave election is that it should be able to overcome all such 'on the margin' games. That is why some would say BJP went to such an extent to 'manufacture' a wave election. On May 16th we should know.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 00:02

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Apr 2014 00:18

1) I have seen no proof of this. How is Nitish sacrificing himself in Bihar? One candidate withdrew from a seat which has 65% secular population so that secular can still win it? This is more a candidate showing his call of secularism and defying NK. Rest all seats where BJP is winning (at least in last round), they can thank NK strong performance, he divided anti-BJP votes.
2)rrNDTV has been fighting against BJP since its inception decades ago. Not a single day they had a news item that did not slam indic forces (be it in Kargil or anywhere else). Due to it antics it has very low following and TRP (please google it up), mostly in chi chi class who mostly do not vote or vote against BJP (If you can endure few days of rrNDTV, most likely you are ok with Indic forces down, else you would be dead due to eleted BP). To think that they influence even 1 dalit vote in UP, is to give them more credit than they deserve. Ya they maybe influencing many narrative, but in UP it is clear, Maya is not in race for PM, and non jatav dalits have migrated, Jatav dalits are also not 100% with her in this LS election
3)Maharastra, lets get some math right. On average 120k voters or 9% voters per seat were defranchised. Last few elections, 50% was the voting %, and these middle class voters probably more, so 4.5% of those who could have voted (or 60% of this year mark), 5.4% of those who could have voted found their names missing. Now to say all 100% were BJP of these were BJP voters will again be wrong, a high % but not 100%. Lets get the high % 70% of these votes were BJP/SS, that makes 3.8% of the voting population (or 6% of the votes casted). The increase in voting has been 12% of voting population, or 25% of the votes casted. It is rumored high % of extra vote here went to Modi. Again taking 70% as high, 8.4% of total voters went to Modi (compensating for the loss of 3.8%). Even if we assume, the other 30% surge was for Con, the differential, 40% of 12% surge 4.8% gave BJP a lead of 1% after compensating for Deleted voters. So things maynot be as bad, if indeed it is a Tsunamo.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2014 00:27

The Congress, except in 2009, has had a far worse vote to seat conversion ratio than the BJP has had. For example, the BJP in 1999 had 180 seats and 86 million popular votes. Congress had 116 seats from 106 million. The BJP has, as far as I know, never won with a popular vote.

Historically, they always won through concentrated seat conversion in their strong regions, combined with near total absence elsewhere. This time, that may change, because of the appeal of a single man causing them to possibly shore up both weak seats in their own heartland areas, as well as winning or supporting alliance wins in areas that are historically weak or completely new to them.

The Congress on the other hand, depends on the availability of funds and official machinery as the ruling party, e.g. SoniaG using NTPC copters to campaign. In this elections it's primarily a battle between the Cong attempting to use its entrenched power to get the alliance and marginal seat permutations right, against the BJPs efforts to get its own bloc of marginal seats by energizing its cadre and alliance partners due to the charisma of one man.