Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Apr 2014 00:59

BJP has never won on popular vote. They came very close in 1999, but then also BJP vote was less than Con. This election, going by all surveys, BJP is getting more votes than congress (by a very wide margin). Since 1999 BJP has expanded in KA and is counting heavily on Haryana. So it tells that BJP numbers can only go up more.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2014 01:14

They came nowhere close in 1999 actually. Here's some historical voteshare

Code: Select all

Election BJP% BJPSeats Cong% CongSeats
1989 11% 85 40% 197
1991 20% 120 36% 244
1996 20% 161 29% 140
1998 26% 182 26% 141
1999 24% 180 28% 116
2004 22% 138 27% 145
2009 19% 116 29% 206

Typically, BJP converts a smaller popular voteshare into far more votes. The Congress has won the popular voteshare by some distance in every election except in 1977, and in 1998, when they won slightly more of the popular voteshare than the BJP. If the BJP does win the popular vote this time, it would be the first time a single party other than Cong (not a coalition like 1977) won the popular vote.

Despite suggestions, the BJP has typically shown better ability to convert popular votes to seats than Cong has. Note that in 1999 and 2009, Cong voteshares were about 0.5% off from each other, but in terms of results, they had 116 seats in 1999 and 90 more a decade later, so they seat conversion is hugely dependent on the nature of their opposition. They are masters of playing against a weak or fractured opposition, but historically not so much against a strong or inspired one.

In 1999 they were still weak; SoniaG had just been elevated to the helm, Vajpayee had sympathy because of the 1998 shenanigans combined with the boost from Kargil. In 2009 it was the opposite. Despite what people would like to pretend, Cong was quite strong that year - the economy was still growing very strongly, and the BJP simply had no one to credibly make an anti-incumbency case. The Left, thanks to their own traditional ability to shoot themselves in the foot, were decimated; most of the 2009 Cong vote and seat gains came at the expense of the Left, 3rd and 4th fronts, not from the BJP.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 01:15

Meenakashi Lekhi ‏@M_Lekhi 3h

#RGLies J justice D P BUCH is the Lokayukta of Guj.delay of 7 years in appointment caused by C.G.not approving judges names culprit Kamla1/1

Meenakashi Lekhi ‏@M_Lekhi 3h

1/2 Kamla Beniwal & Earlier governor of Gujrat #RGLies

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 27 Apr 2014 01:16

Sorry meant 1998. They bothe were in 25.xx%, with con leading.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Apr 2014 01:20

VikasRaina wrote:Rightly said Yvijay.

This is NaMo v/s rest of political class elections. No other way to read this election. No one talks about MP or chattisgarh or TN or Goa or any other place but Gujarat.
BJP just happens to be the party that NaMo ji is associated with. He is the lion from Gir forest that has set cat among the pigeons.

He is practically challenging the pope in vatican.

Moi was the first to suggest in BRF that in the event Modi was not elected as the PM candidate, Modi should breakaway from BJP. It was many moons ago. Glad the country has come this close. Just hope Congress does not pull some rabbits out of thin air.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Apr 2014 01:23

IIRC many many summers ago, when EVMagic was not big in BRF, BRFites were celebrating EVMs. Right?

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2014 01:25

SwamyG, SanjayC et al: Please STOP with the repeated 'EVM magic' talk. Continued thread derailment with this same topic will lead to warnings.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2014 01:30

you are on wrong foot mr gin.. you perhaps never bothered to read me anyways on "it".

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 27 Apr 2014 01:35

Suraj,

The way you are reading the data is exactly the opposite of how congress or a decent political party reads data. The first thing they do is salami slice. So for example, their strategy in say tamil nadu is different from gujarat.

In gujarat for example, I am pretty sure that there is a campaign that brahmins are being offended by bjp where as bjp will be called a brahmin party in tamil nadu.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Apr 2014 01:39

What repeated talk, please check when I last spoke about it, and what I said. My earlier post that gets your goat is about the transition of BRFs opinion, not about its existence or non existence. Don't be shooting from my shoulders.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 27 Apr 2014 01:42

SanjayC wrote: Reminds me of an exchange between Russian and American space scientists.

American scientists explained to Russians a unique challenge they were grappling with. American astronauts were facing a problem in space: they had to write records and maintain logs, but the damn pens won't work as lack of gravity will play havoc with flow of ink. The American scientists were burning midnight oil to solve the problem and invent a pen that will work perfectly in space. "So how have you solved this problem"? they asked Russians. The Russians replied: "We use pencils."

EVMs are the zero-gravity pens of election commission while the whole world uses pencils (paper ballots). Paper ballots don't have LED lights that glow in the wrong place. They don't record wrong votes if you have stamped some other party. They don't have a circuit malfunction. They need not be made more robust with extra engineering. A sheer number of paper ballots can be easily moved from one place to another in tropical climate. But then, some people prefer pens in space.

I saw a program where they say why a pencil was not used. The pencil lead may break and keep floating around causing damage.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 27 Apr 2014 01:44

In the next phase of elections going to polls on 30th Apr, The highest number of seats are from Gujarat(All 26)

UP 14
AP(T) 17
WB 9
Bihar 7
Gujarat 26
Punjab 13
J&K 1
Dadra & nagar haveli 1
Daman & Diu 1

Total 89 seats
Out of which BJP is relatively weak in WB & T(Here perhaps they may spring a surprise but I want to be conservative)
Super strong in Gujarat (~30% of total seats going to polls)

I hope they can get above 45 seats from this round.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Apr 2014 01:46

Virupaksha wrote:Suraj,

The way you are reading the data is exactly the opposite of how congress or a decent political party reads data. The first thing they do is salami slice. So for example, their strategy in say tamil nadu is different from gujarat.

In gujarat for example, I am pretty sure that there is a campaign that brahmins are being offended by bjp where as bjp will be called a brahmin party in tamil nadu.

The anecdotal evidence coming in, and can not be confirmed yet, but will be around May 12, is that the caste equation is breaking down in the under 35 vote. The majority of this age group is voting for the NDA. The longer Indian politicians continue to play the caste vote game, the worse it will be for the republic; however, what we see anecdotally from India's youth is very encouraging.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 27 Apr 2014 01:49

Virupaksha, every national attempts to calibrate their message by state. It's not a Congress thing. Even the BJP tried that in 2009. There's an inbuilt limit to how well that can work because it puts them in a position where they can be accused of hypocrisy, especially with a more informed electorate today who have access to so many sources of news.

The Congress succeeds when they have the ability to project themselves as the most likely winner at the national level, making it advantageous for regional parties to ally with them so as to have access to funds and influence from New Delhi. They're also very good at decimating regional parties or controlling them by default. They can do this because of a legacy political base in these places. The BJP has to do things differently because, by and large in the south, they have no legacy base.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 27 Apr 2014 01:50

Mort Walker wrote: The anecdotal evidence coming in, and can not be confirmed yet, but will be around May 12, is that the caste equation is breaking down in the under 35 vote. The majority of this age group is voting for the NDA. The longer Indian politicians continue to play the caste vote game, the worse it will be for the republic; however, what we see anecdotally from India's youth is very encouraging.

Politicians are the ones who are more in touch with different walks of India and as long as caste vote game actually works on ground, they will use it. The moment it stops giving dividends, they will throw it out without even looking back.

Unfortunately as of today, I do not see politicians throwing out caste vote game.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 27 Apr 2014 01:57

^^^Not today, but after this election it may start happening - and it may not just be the caste equation, but pandering to Muslim and Christian groups may require re-think.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 01:59

Jal Kukdi ‏@Jal_Kukdi 3h

RSVP "@gauravcsawant: Why isn't govt revealing Swiss bank accounts?Met a Sr govt offr who said at least 4 names will embarrass ruling class

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 27 Apr 2014 02:01

Mayawati tells Dalits, you are not Hindus

Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati is worried over the BJP poaching into her Dalit vote bank. On Saturday, she reminded the Dalits that they are not Hindus. "The BJP is trying to misguide you all for your votes," she said.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 02:06

Saar good news! Can there be a better confirmation than this that the Jatavs too have started backing BJP in numbers enough to cause her so much khujli!!!

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 27 Apr 2014 02:06

Suraj wrote:The Congress, except in 2009, has had a far worse vote to seat conversion ratio than the BJP has had. For example, the BJP in 1999 had 180 seats and 86 million popular votes. Congress had 116 seats from 106 million. The BJP has, as far as I know, never won with a popular vote.

Historically, they always won through concentrated seat conversion in their strong regions, combined with near total absence elsewhere. This time, that may change, because of the appeal of a single man causing them to possibly shore up both weak seats in their own heartland areas, as well as winning or supporting alliance wins in areas that are historically weak or completely new to them.

The Congress on the other hand, depends on the availability of funds and official machinery as the ruling party, e.g. SoniaG using NTPC copters to campaign. In this elections it's primarily a battle between the Cong attempting to use its entrenched power to get the alliance and marginal seat permutations right, against the BJPs efforts to get its own bloc of marginal seats by energizing its cadre and alliance partners due to the charisma of one man.

Suraj,
I just want to make one point about Congress being able to pull off marginal seats better. IMHO, this is not because of any superior understanding of electoral processes or deep insight into voting patterns. It is because the Congress has a stronger cadre than the BJP in almost all places except perhaps places like Gujarat and MP. In places like Maharashtra, Assam, and Karnataka, for instance, the seats that are marginal are precisely those seats where the Congress cadre outnumbers the BJP by at least 2 to 1. The EC has done BJP a huge favour this time in Assam, precisely because the election in the state was in several phases, allowing the BJP to shift its limited cadre from sector to sector, producing good results in each in turn.

Let me give a practical example in the current elections. Karnataka went to polls in all seats on the same day. I, therefore, went to help the BJP in my constituency, Bangalore North. Tumkur and Chikkaballapur are both marginal constituencies-BJP is in a hard fight against both Congress and the JD(S) in both. If either constituency had had its elections in another phase, I would have gone to help the BJP there, because the BJP cadre in both constituencies is outnumbered at least 3 to 1 (more like 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 in Chikkaballapur), and we have a chance of winning both. But this is again what you correctly term `legacy effect'. Much of the Congress cadre is in place from the 70s and the 80s. On the other hand, in places like Dakshin Kannada (Mangalore), BJP has a far stronger cadre and Congress never wins Lok Sabha elections here, simply because the BJP cadre manages to haul the BJP candidate through, often even when he is unimpressive. But people never understand that Dakshin Kannada is marginal too. They think it is a BJP stronghold. In reality, it is not. It is just BJP cadre being stronger and functioning better.

James B · Post by **James B** » 27 Apr 2014 02:08

According to Sunday Guardian, Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde is losing from Solapur

Minorities’ ire puts Shinde in trouble

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/min ... in-trouble

This caught my eye (something that Dr Patil has pointed out)

Shinde's rival from the BJP has put the previous election's defeat behind him and is upbeat. Bansode said, "The equation in the state has changed now. Shinde not only failed to maintain contact with the voters while he was Home Minister, he has also reneged on promises. We found that in areas that held a concentration of Muslim votes — such as Nai Zindagi and Shastri Nagar — as well as the spread out Muslim voters, there has been voter withdrawal. Instead of the 90% turnout that they usually record, barely 25% voted this time," said Bansode.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 02:16

WikiLeaks on Sanjay Jha's CIA lie on Subu

WikiLeaks ‏@wikileaks 8h

#IndiaVotes2014: Best right wing perspective on @Swamy39 Indira Gandhi cable by @drankuag http://indiarightwing.blogspot.in/2014/ ... truth.html … #india #WikiLeaks

WikiLeaks ‏@wikileaks 9h

#IndiaVotes: Saeed Naqvi on Rahul Gandhi in #Wikileaks: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/05NE ... 661_a.html … Will @JhaSanjay also call Saeed Naqvi a CIA Agent? #india

Alok Bhatt ‏@alok_bhatt 3h

IM terrorist involved in Patna blasts- Imtiaz's- video being shown by India TV

Alok Bhatt ‏@alok_bhatt 3h

Where are folks like @DilliDurAst and @mihirssharma who indirectly blamed Modi for Patna blasts...tell them to watch Imtiaz video

Dr.Pranab #HDL ‏@Rish777777Com 8h

Congress not only protected Dawood Ibrahim for 10 years but also issue tickets to his people {Nagma} http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 022445.cms …

Amit Shah ‏@AmitShahOffice 4h

"I have put the entire video clip on my Facebook account" My faith in You & SocialMedia via Interview in@Outlookindia http://bit.ly/RVh5vK

James B · Post by **James B** » 27 Apr 2014 02:23

BJP set to win Khurshid’s Farrukhabad Seat

he Bharatiya Janata Party appears poised to defeat Minister for External Affairs Salman Khurshid after Thursday's record turnout of 60.18%, the highest ever in the Farrukhabad constituency. Voting perception gathered by The Sunday Guardian during a tour of various urban and rural polling booths revealed that the BJP's Mukesh Rajput was the clear favourite, followed by Khurshid, the Bahujan Samaj Party's Jaybeer Singh, the Samajwadi Party's Rameshwar Singh Yadav and Independent candidate Sachin Yadav.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 27 Apr 2014 02:27

[quote="gandharva]There exists schism between "Pahadi" and "Maidani" Brahamins. Uttarakhanda will vote for BJP but in Allahabad and Lucknow, being a minority they will go for Rita Bahuguna. When UK used to be part of UP, Pahadis B will migrate to plains for jobs. Most have fond memories of Tiwari, being UP CM, facilitating that migration. But I agree with your assessment of RNS. He isn't worth national scene.[/quote]

Bah! Humbug. What difference between what Vikas ji said and I said. Why this cognitive dissonance also known as kolaveri?

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 27 Apr 2014 02:31

Dr Rakesh Sinha ‏@RakeshSinha01 2h

in rural areas of Bihar and UP people want change and lotus has become the symbol of transformation, strong center and development

Amit Malviya ‏@malviyamit 2h

In Jaipur for a wedding. Massive #Modi wave here.. Sachin Pilot expected to lose, so is CP Joshi.. People have voted for change..

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 2h

Congress sub-manifestos part of Rahul action plan http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/gene ... mesofindia …

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 27 Apr 2014 02:45

nageshks wrote: I just want to make one point about Congress being able to pull off marginal seats better. IMHO, this is not because of any superior understanding of electoral processes or deep insight into voting patterns. It is because the Congress has a stronger cadre than the BJP in almost all places except perhaps places like Gujarat and MP. In places like Maharashtra, Assam, and Karnataka, for instance, the seats that are marginal are precisely those seats where the Congress cadre outnumbers the BJP by at least 2 to 1. The EC has done BJP a huge favour this time in Assam, precisely because the election in the state was in several phases, allowing the BJP to shift its limited cadre from sector to sector, producing good results in each in turn.

Let me give a practical example in the current elections. Karnataka went to polls in all seats on the same day. I, therefore, went to help the BJP in my constituency, Bangalore North. Tumkur and Chikkaballapur are both marginal constituencies-BJP is in a hard fight against both Congress and the JD(S) in both. If either constituency had had its elections in another phase, I would have gone to help the BJP there, because the BJP cadre in both constituencies is outnumbered at least 3 to 1 (more like 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 in Chikkaballapur), and we have a chance of winning both. But this is again what you correctly term `legacy effect'. Much of the Congress cadre is in place from the 70s and the 80s. On the other hand, in places like Dakshin Kannada (Mangalore), BJP has a far stronger cadre and Congress never wins Lok Sabha elections here, simply because the BJP cadre manages to haul the BJP candidate through, often even when he is unimpressive. But people never understand that Dakshin Kannada is marginal too. They think it is a BJP stronghold. In reality, it is not. It is just BJP cadre being stronger and functioning better.

Nageshks, this is an eye opener of a post. Superb! I was thinking along the same lines after calling a few MP seats in TamilNadu before Apr 24th. Several times, I had this feeling " If only we had more street level infantry.....". Gives me hope for TamilNadu.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2014 02:52

quite logical.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 27 Apr 2014 02:53

No wonder Modi was stressing so much on booth management from the beginning of the campaign.

Unfortunately as of today, I do not see politicians throwing out caste vote game.

Report this post

Until it is proven on the ground, it is just a theory. All non-CongI and non-BJP politicos of the Karpoori Thakur/Lohia/JP have built their lucrative careers around Jaati. Socialism was just a figment of Lohia's imagination. Would you start transitioning to Oracle based on a rumor in the stock market even though you were making $200/hr on SAP?

Hence they will keep using caste as their totem pole, and as Sharad Yadav, one of the prime exponents of Jaati vaad in post mandal India said, It is caste that determines the key subject for elections in North India.....BTW How is he doing in Madhepura?

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Apr 2014 03:00

Virupaksha wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: The anecdotal evidence coming in, and can not be confirmed yet, but will be around May 12, is that the caste equation is breaking down in the under 35 vote. The majority of this age group is voting for the NDA. The longer Indian politicians continue to play the caste vote game, the worse it will be for the republic; however, what we see anecdotally from India's youth is very encouraging.
Politicians are the ones who are more in touch with different walks of India and as long as caste vote game actually works on ground, they will use it. The moment it stops giving dividends, they will throw it out without even looking back.

Unfortunately as of today, I do not see politicians throwing out caste vote game.

It is the chicken and egg situation. People vote based on their caste & religion. And I ask why not? Politicians use the people, and people use the politicians. This is a generational shift change where caste and religion becomes less important in elections. As long as there are divisions, politicians will exploit it.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 27 Apr 2014 03:07

A new caste called "neo-middleclass" has emerged. It is the largest caste in India and Modi is the undisputed leader of that caste right now

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Apr 2014 03:25

Vamsee wrote:A new caste called "neo-middleclass" has emerged. It is the largest caste in India and Modi is the undisputed leader of that caste right now

Example

Election Express ‏@ElectionExpress Apr 25
"Wasn't pro BJP but have seen Gujarat grow. Give the plane to a trained pilot, not someone with just best intention." pic.twitter.com/fnOucGPu1O

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 27 Apr 2014 03:33

Vamsee wrote:A new caste called "neo-middleclass" has emerged. It is the largest caste in India and Modi is the undisputed leader of that caste right now

+1

The realization is that you've got create new wealth not just redistribute it and milk the middle-class to pay for the elite and the 'social schemes'

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 27 Apr 2014 03:42

Sonugn wrote:Mayawati tells Dalits, you are not Hindus
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) supremo Mayawati is worried over the BJP poaching into her Dalit vote bank. On Saturday, she reminded the Dalits that they are not Hindus. "The BJP is trying to misguide you all for your votes," she said.

There is no direct quote of her saying that, at least in the article.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 27 Apr 2014 03:55

http://www.openthemagazine.com/article/ ... ering-away

In Rithauli, the village where Samajwadi Party (SP) President Mulayam Singh Yadav was born, 30-year-old farmer Mohan was contemplating voting for the BJP in the 24 April poll. His friends shared his views, but these were not too popular among an older generation of voters used to blindly backing the SP, a party seen at the forefront of a political movement in Uttar Pradesh to emancipate Yadavs from age-old caste repression under Brahmin supremacists. “Mulayam Singh had been like a religion here ever since he formed his party in the early 1990s,” says Mohan, “but times are changing.” Winds of change are evident in several other neighbouring villages once considered SP bastions and are part of the Firozabad Lok Sabha constituency, where Mulayam’s nephew Akshay has made his poll debut this General Election.

Gurjit Singh, a prosperous-looking farmer in the hamlet of Pithanpur, voted SP in the 2012 Assembly polls in which Mulayam’s son Akhilesh Yadav swept to power with a record margin. Singh claims he did so because his nephews goaded him into it to avail of free laptops in a populist scheme announced by the party. “No such mistakes anymore…. This time, there is also a wave around Narendra Modi,” says the talkative 47-year-old, emphasising that “who the local candidate was didn’t concern me”. SP Singh Baghel, who is of a ‘most backward caste’, was the BJP’s nominee for the Firozabad Lok Sabha seat, which Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav had won in 2009. Akhilesh had contested from Kannauj and Firozabad and later vacated the Firozabad seat only to field his wife Dimple in a by-election that she lost.

In the Firozabad-Etah-Etawah-Mainpuri-Kannauj belt, which Mulayam considers his fortress, his party has faced unprecedented heat this year thanks to a surfeit of factors. “The results on 16 May will reveal all that,” says an SP leader based in Lucknow, asking not to be named because he is not authorised to speak to the media. “Modi contesting from Uttar Pradesh was a really major factor,” he adds, “whether you want to admit it or not.” Then there is the split in Muslim votes among the BSP, Congress and the SP. Another factor, political pundits point out, is the alienation from the SP of non- Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs), especially those who belong to farming communities—despite historical clashes with Yadavs, they had looked up to Mulayam as a true inheritor of the late Prime Minister Charan Singh’s pro-farmer legacy.

Ram Laxman, a cow- herder who lives in Etawah town and travels across the district, agrees: “My friends and members of my community in various parts of the state have told me they would vote for the BJP and not SP in this election. The feeling I get is that when the results are in next month, SP will win much fewer seats in UP because of the Modi wave.”

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 27 Apr 2014 04:24

James B wrote:BJP set to win Khurshid’s Farrukhabad Seat

That will indeed be a tight slap in the face of this arrogant and incompetent INC moron.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 27 Apr 2014 04:51

Vamsee wrote:A new caste called "neo-middleclass" has emerged. It is the largest caste in India and Modi is the undisputed leader of that caste right now

Varnas and Jatis have evolved as per the times. Humans have thought and acted as a group for a long time now. And what is important to one group does not have to be important to another. An individual who places caste at the bottom of his priorities is as correct as the individual who,places the caste at the top. That is why there are elections and people vote what is important to them.

If we don't like how others vote, then we have to influence their thinking and change their voting patterns. In Agile Retrospectives, some teams invite all the thoughts. Then team members vote on them, and the top 2 issues gets attention and discussed in detail. So is the elections. Pekoe vote what is dear to them.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 27 Apr 2014 04:56

nageshks wrote: Suraj,
I just want to make one point about Congress being able to pull off marginal seats better. IMHO, this is not because of any superior understanding of electoral processes or deep insight into voting patterns. It is because the Congress has a stronger cadre than the BJP in almost all places except perhaps places like Gujarat and MP. In places like Maharashtra, Assam, and Karnataka, for instance, the seats that are marginal are precisely those seats where the Congress cadre outnumbers the BJP by at least 2 to 1. The EC has done BJP a huge favour this time in Assam, precisely because the election in the state was in several phases, allowing the BJP to shift its limited cadre from sector to sector, producing good results in each in turn.

Let me give a practical example in the current elections. Karnataka went to polls in all seats on the same day. I, therefore, went to help the BJP in my constituency, Bangalore North. Tumkur and Chikkaballapur are both marginal constituencies-BJP is in a hard fight against both Congress and the JD(S) in both. If either constituency had had its elections in another phase, I would have gone to help the BJP there, because the BJP cadre in both constituencies is outnumbered at least 3 to 1 (more like 4 to 1 or 5 to 1 in Chikkaballapur), and we have a chance of winning both. But this is again what you correctly term `legacy effect'. Much of the Congress cadre is in place from the 70s and the 80s. On the other hand, in places like Dakshin Kannada (Mangalore), BJP has a far stronger cadre and Congress never wins Lok Sabha elections here, simply because the BJP cadre manages to haul the BJP candidate through, often even when he is unimpressive. But people never understand that Dakshin Kannada is marginal too. They think it is a BJP stronghold. In reality, it is not. It is just BJP cadre being stronger and functioning better.

excellent one-
need to keep the cadre happy and engaged in party work by capturing local elections at district and taluk and panchayat levels. Till this is done there can be no growth of leaders and cadres.
cadres are the ones who connect with the people and tell them of their stae/national govts leaders acheivements. Not to forget the ability to bring people to vote to their parties.
Gujarat is a prime example for BJP party workers and leaders work in unison.(realtive to other parties and its own state BJP counterparts elsewhere)

Congress had the advantage of being associted with freedom movement- hence had ample time despite misdeeds for over 2 generations.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Apr 2014 05:12

comes with Modi, a job that requires to undo his predecessors negative approaches (d4 et al), they failed for the last 10 years to do an early adoption of Modi governance model. what were they thinking? Modi has a big role to play to correct to party if BJP wishes to come out of troubles.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 27 Apr 2014 05:16

in Bihar RJD-Con winning good seats,Nitish's loss is Lalu's gain. Muslims voting Lalu as they think NiKu can't stop Modi.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 27 Apr 2014 05:50

Looks like 5forty3's TN predictions are in line with the conservative estimates of Muraliravi, Frederick, et. al. Good to know - that builds confidence in 5forty3's other analysis and predictions.