Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 28 Apr 2014 10:55

Namo will lose onlee.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 28 Apr 2014 11:05

Farooq was spending more of his time in London when the 1987-89 Jihad broke out. Only fitting that they spend their time there.

prahaar · Post by **prahaar** » 28 Apr 2014 11:17

Paul wrote:Nikhil Wagle had posted this link on twitter, can some learned Marathi speaking soul please summarize.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLfsqUH ... ata_player

The video is about a protest by Shri Ram Vallabh Joshi, against the hypocrisy of socalled tapasvi Brahmins and in particular head of a math who feels desecrated by Shudras. Putting on a beard and acting like a saint, does not make one.

What was the context of this post? Is Wagle-Ki-Duniya imagining protests by Congi goons against Baba Ramdev in the same light as Shri Joshi's?

BhairavP · Post by **BhairavP** » 28 Apr 2014 11:45

5Forty3 has a new post up. Overall, gives 60 out of 117 to the NDA on the 24th, with only 17 to the UPA.
40 to others.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 28 Apr 2014 13:39

so total so far?

member_28397 · Post by **member_28397** » 28 Apr 2014 13:44

Karan M wrote:so total so far?

190 so far if 5forty3 is correct, and where the elections are still to be held expect around 25-27seats in UP, 1-3 in WB, clean sweep in Guj, 12 in Seema, 10-12 in Bihar, Utrakhand it’s again a clean sweep, Himachal 3, Tel 1-2, Punjab 5-7 for NDA

So NDA will touch 272

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 28 Apr 2014 13:51

Looks like Amit Shah is confidant of 300+ for NDA.
But even more hope comes sadly from resumption of effete & cowardly shell-and-hide along the border by jihadi impotent army.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 28 Apr 2014 14:15

Lots of signalling going on...after state level elections in Dec, CongI was first off the mark leaking news reports about how well they did in elections. Even satta market could not predict the sweep in MP and Rajasthan. CongI is predicting 140+ seats so far. No telling how much they can win....It is all execution now. Every Booth has to be managed and every rally has to be well attended.

Why is EC after Baba Ramdev for something he said on Pappu? Surely he cannot be arrested for something as measly as a honeymoon in a Dalit Home.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 14:18

Related to the current political discourse and damadgate
----------------------------------------------------->
‘Millennium city’ is a big mess

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... -mess.html

Gurgaon offers a classic example of how things can go wrong in urbanisation when politicians, land developers and highly connected people collude to structure a disaster. The controversy surrounding the Haryana regime-Vadra-DLF deal must be seen in this context

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 14:23

Dalit vote moving to BJP is what will transform the wave into the Tsunamo that will sweep every party aside. Given the reports indicating precisely that happening everyone is trying to drive a wedge between Dalits and BJP. Baba RD's statement provided all the sides opposed to BJP the opening they were all looking for and Baba got caught in the middle.

munna · Post by **munna** » 28 Apr 2014 14:28

pankajs wrote:Baba RD's statement provided all the sides opposed to BJP the opening they were all looking for and Baba got caught in the middle.

To nuance this a bit more, RD is OBC and Modi is OBC too, so the idea is to make it a OBC Vs Dalit match to crack the rainbow coalition. The entire electoral maths of the nation has gone for a toss barring Punjab and Kerala. First time ever in the history of Indian elections we are witnessing a firebrand OBC leader vying for top post of the country solidly backed by traditional Upper Caste dynamics plus Dalit tailwinds. The sense of ownership about Modi is simply phenomenal amongst ALL sections of society. The NDA has to safely manage anything North of 220 to install Modi. Rest is all academic in nature.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 15:20

Times of India ‏@timesofindia 2h

Women in Bihar outnumbered men in third phase http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 304783.cms … #DanceOfDemocracy

vic · Post by **vic** » 28 Apr 2014 15:22

It seems that tactical pact not to attack the Sonia family still holds even though Vadra is facing some flak. Look at the issues being ignored:-

1. National Herald group take over
2. Family in Agusta Westland scam
3. Role of PMO controlled by Gandhi family in Coal Scam
4. Role of PMO controlled by Gandhi family in 2G Scam
5. Tatra Scam
6. Adarsh Scam
7. Meat packaging companies Hawala Scam
8. Hasan Ali Hawala Scam
9. Vadara Scam with non DLF Companies
10. Radia Tapes
11. Refusal to investigate the Secret Accounts information given by European Nations
12. Allocation of Iron ore mines, limestone mines
13. Railway Gate Scam
14. Attempt to down play IPL scams
15. Maharashtra Irrigation Network Scams

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 28 Apr 2014 15:25

pankajs wrote:
Times of India ‏@timesofindia 2h

Women in Bihar outnumbered men in third phase http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/home ... 304783.cms … #DanceOfDemocracy

And these women are voting for the future of their children and not for their caste. Wait for the result. True extent of tsunamo will be revealed on 16th.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 15:34

India Today ‏@IndiaToday 2h

Fresh FIR against Ramdev, EC bans his camps in HP http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/ec-a ... 57970.html …

CNN-IBN News ‏@ibnlive 2h

RT @IBNLiveRealtime Ramdev holds press conference in Kangra, HP, accuses EC of being under Congress's control

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 2h

Hounding of Baba Ramdev by dynasty stooges in EC is shocking.

Prasanna Viswanathan ‏@prasannavishy 2h

Manufactured outrage over Ramdev's remarks understandable as a significant section of Dalits swing towards saffron http://5forty3.in/2014/04/saffron-dalit ... 4th-april/ …

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 28 Apr 2014 15:47

to ab tak ka score 543 se 190/347 for NDA

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 28 Apr 2014 16:14

I just hope 5forty3 is right and not overly optimistic. That said, the analysis is interesting and worth the subscription.

SriKumar wrote:
Sanjay wrote:Answer RajeshA first - nope - Chaguanas......
the hometown of V.S. Naipaul. writer (Nobel prize)....(Beyond Belief, Area of Darkness, A Million Mutinies Now)

Yup - and his cousins live a few hundred metres from me. One of them is a Pundit. Naipaul himself spent very little time in Chaguanas as he had certain "complexes" as a young man. He changed massively in later years.

CosmoR, I didn't go to QRC so it won't be from there.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 28 Apr 2014 16:15

pankajs wrote:Baba RD's statement provided all the sides opposed to BJP the opening they were all looking for and Baba got caught in the middle.

munna wrote: To nuance this a bit more, RD is OBC and Modi is OBC too, so the idea is to make it a OBC Vs Dalit match to crack the rainbow coalition. The entire electoral maths of the nation has gone for a toss barring Punjab and Kerala. First time ever in the history of Indian elections we are witnessing a firebrand OBC leader vying for top post of the country solidly backed by traditional Upper Caste dynamics plus Dalit tailwinds. The sense of ownership about Modi is simply phenomenal amongst ALL sections of society. The NDA has to safely manage anything North of 220 to install Modi. Rest is all academic in nature.

This is the best shortest sentence to summarize the election so far. In Telangana based on latest reports, the OBC card has played a definitely role to blunt the Telangana pride of TRS. All pointers that the election here is a tossup with most of seats in close contest 48 hrs before the polls. Anything can happen. It started with a 3 seat for NDA and now everyone is saying it is 8 seats for NDA out of 17.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Apr 2014 16:31

Sanjay wrote:I just hope 5forty3 is right and not overly optimistic. That said, the analysis is interesting and worth the subscription.

It is the best analysis so far as they break down the vote between urban, rural, caste, and religion. What is amazing is that the hard core Muslim groups voted 7-11% BJP.

Ashok Sarraff · Post by **Ashok Sarraff** » 28 Apr 2014 16:35

^All recent polls across multiple sources with different political persuasions (CSDS, Hansa, Neilsen, 5forty3 etc.) are giving 190-200+ to BJP alone, so it seems quite reasonable to assume that the numbers are alright.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 28 Apr 2014 16:38

Ashwini: I'll be frank, in Rae Bareli, the sentiment is for Sonia.

http://www.rediff.com/news/report/ls-el ... 140428.htm

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2014 16:44

Sanjay wrote:CosmoR, I didn't go to QRC so it won't be from there.

QRC = Queen's Royal College?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 28 Apr 2014 16:45

Paul wrote:Lots of signalling going on...after state level elections in Dec, CongI was first off the mark leaking news reports about how well they did in elections. Even satta market could not predict the sweep in MP and Rajasthan. CongI is predicting 140+ seats so far. No telling how much they can win....It is all execution now. Every Booth has to be managed and every rally has to be well attended.

Why is EC after Baba Ramdev for something he said on Pappu? Surely he cannot be arrested for something as measly as a honeymoon in a Dalit Home.

To show the minorities how tough the kangress is and how biased and selective they can be by letting azam khan off from the arrest that he so richly deserves.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 28 Apr 2014 16:48

RajeshA wrote:
Sanjay wrote:CosmoR, I didn't go to QRC so it won't be from there.
QRC = Queen's Royal College?

Yup

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 28 Apr 2014 16:56

Mahima chaudhary campaigns for congress, got irked completely when asked who is fit to become PM by press in MNagar UP.
She abused them with galis which were muted on channels and can't be published acc to aajtak
http://aajtak.intoday.in/story/bollywwo ... 62564.html

satya · Post by **satya** » 28 Apr 2014 16:58

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 418_1.html

21% rise in votes cast by Muslims surprises many

As reported earlier, voter turnout was 52.55 per cent from 41 per cent in the 2009 elections. Muslim turnout has risen to to 53 per cent from 32 per cent in 2009, a rise attributed to the ‘Modi factor’.

panduranghari · Post by **panduranghari** » 28 Apr 2014 17:12

Paul wrote:Nikhil Wagle had posted this link on twitter, can some learned Marathi speaking soul please summarize.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VLfsqUH ... ata_player

Ram Joshi is commenting on the varna vyavastha. He is questioning how by just doing the vidhis or growing hair one becomes Brahmin. He is exposing the Brahmins for being just namesakebrahmins but nothing in deed or thought.

Atri saheb will be along to correct me i am sure.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 28 Apr 2014 17:29

In general, I tend to track smaller parties as well, in LS polls. I have a couple of Qs if anyone here is from J-K or Odisha.

How is Bhim Singh's Panthers Party doing in Jammu region? What effect will Bhim Singh contesting Udhampur have? Since none of the analyses have mentioned him, I take it that he has no chance to win. Whose vote will he damage?

What, if anything, will be the impact of Soumya Ranjan Patnaik's Aama Odisha Party?

Saral · Post by **Saral** » 28 Apr 2014 17:41

fanne wrote:to ab tak ka score 543 se 190/347 for NDA

Proportionally, from a naive pov, it is 297/543. Am hoping Tsunamo pushes it over 300.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 28 Apr 2014 18:17

Singha wrote:the HC website has a searchable tool given case # but was unable to get any details based on "6560" and 2012

this link shows someone kept on appealing to get RTO info but case was finally closed by HC citing original order
http://www.apic.gov.in/QRTRLY/MR/2013/IV/14445-2012.pdf

GD,

the link I posted is that of Endowments department and it gives the land/building ownership details by district.

The RTI could be more detailed, like who is leasing them for past 30 yrs or something like that.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2014 18:36

>> Mamata says Modi a dangerous man, calls him devil

agar sarkar badal gaya to bahut bhari par sakta hain...when it is time to seek the inevitable bailout package she wants annually.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 28 Apr 2014 18:37

fanne wrote:so BJP is pulling all 7. The yadavs of Bhagalpur going with RJD sounded too good to be true, they did not vote rjd (voted BJP) when Laloo was at the height of his power!! The Bhagalpur riot you know was between whom and whom, what caste was at the fore front. Which seat you are giving con in Bihar - Sasaram or Aurangabad (I guess Sasa)? What 4 are gone for BJP in UP?
So this round was good for BJP. Maybe they can now win with an inning then.

Probably this is why Modi is going against the other regional parties with great gusto. They must have a great feedback, or maybe they did not. Still confused. May 16th come soon my dear.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 28 Apr 2014 18:38

Saral wrote:
fanne wrote:to ab tak ka score 543 se 190/347 for NDA
Proportionally, from a naive pov, it is 297/543. Am hoping Tsunamo pushes it over 300.

Extrapolation is only valid for demographic and political break down of similar districts.
This last phase, given the districts that were voting, in 2009 these districts gave the NDA 26/117. They are the toughest of this 2014 election.

The states the next 89 districts voting on 30 April and my estimates for the NDA are:

AP: 17, 10
BH: 7, 4
GJ: 26, 20
JK: 1, 0
PJ: 13, 5
UP: 14, 10
WB: 9, 2
UT: 2, 1

Total for NDA on 30 April 52/89 ~58%. Cumulative NDA total on 30 April 242/438.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 28 Apr 2014 18:40

the moronic Kalighat hag will get a shock.

my FIL was a card carrying commie. now he and rest of oldies in the housing estate have already pledged for lotus.

same in office, IT serfs pissed off with goondaism in streets, house keeping staff hit by chit fund scam.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2014 18:51

she needs a reality check acutely. hopefully May16 will deliver...

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 28 Apr 2014 18:56

Hope this Derek Obrien guy doesn't get away with his "butcher of Gujarat" and "hands dripping with blood of innocent children" comments. He should hope he makes the shade for a permanent Aussie vijja after May 16.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Apr 2014 19:07

maybe he will find citizenship in the Qila-e-secularism called TSP.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 28 Apr 2014 19:30

nageshks wrote:In general, I tend to track smaller parties as well, in LS polls. I have a couple of Qs if anyone here is from J-K or Odisha.

How is Bhim Singh's Panthers Party doing in Jammu region? What effect will Bhim Singh contesting Udhampur have? Since none of the analyses have mentioned him, I take it that he has no chance to win. Whose vote will he damage?

What, if anything, will be the impact of Soumya Ranjan Patnaik's Aama Odisha Party?

Bhim Singh and his panthers party would win zilch. No impact whatsoever. He will hardly get any votes to damage either BJP or Congress. He is more of those leaders who remain in news but hardly deliver electorally. Since my childhood I have heard about this fella fighting and losing elections and he is still in business of elections.

Jammu is 1 out of 2 as best bet for BJP and 0 out of 2 as the more realistic case unless Tsunamo drowns all, then all bets are off.

Neela · Post by **Neela** » 28 Apr 2014 19:33

The name "Third front" is curious.
What were they thinking when they decided to call themselves that? Are they saying "If you not happy with the first 2 options, please consider us - the third front".
It is almost an apologetic & a pity appeal for votes.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 28 Apr 2014 19:41

pankajs wrote:Dalit vote moving to BJP is what will transform the wave into the Tsunamo that will sweep every party aside. Given the reports indicating precisely that happening everyone is trying to drive a wedge between Dalits and BJP. Baba RD's statement provided all the sides opposed to BJP the opening they were all looking for and Baba got caught in the middle.

Firstpost is all over how BR's honeymoon remark has destroyed Dalit vote for BJP.

Is it all over? Maya/CON is going big on this along with PAIDEMDIA