Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 21:55

Here is another great one form Chidu.

The Indian Express ‏@IndianExpress 3h

A major shift has taken place in Indian polity in 2010-11, the political class failed to see it: Chidambaram #nationalinterest

The chiawalla saw the shift earlier than 2010-11 and he rode it to power thrice!

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 28 Apr 2014 21:56

jamwal wrote:Folks, BJP manifesto clearly says that the persecuted Hindus will always have a home in India.
Then Modi promises deporting illegal Kangladeshis.

It's amply clear which community is on crosshairs. No need to dhoti shiver.

The target audience in the masses are not the one that reads manifesto, watches English TV channels or has access to the internet to download PDF files.
TMC has already spun the BD illegal expulsion remark. Which "community" is then open to interpretation which is what TMC is exploiting.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 21:57

Bhaskar Chatterjee ‏@BhaskarChat 3h

Except hardcore,blind TMC supporters,everybody liked the way modi exposed Mamata on Sarada scam.Thats why Mamata is furious speaking rubbish

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 28 Apr 2014 21:58

Supratik wrote:Two goof-ups in Serampore - 1) painting, 2) illegal Bdeshis. The first money went to charity - sensitive issue. Also saying expel Bdeshis in WB is counter-productive as there are millions of Hindu illegals. Should have attacked on slow progress by TMC on development and industry.

don't agree on the BD thing. it is pretty obvious that BD hindus are not the target. in all the places bjp is aiming for there's a strong vhp rss presence who would explain things at local level if required.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 28 Apr 2014 22:02

Dilbu wrote:I always felt BR is an unnecessary baggage in NaMo's team. It is people like these who have nothing to contribute except huge potential for gaffe who will do more damage to NaMo's campaign as well as his rule in the near future.

Ramdev's hold over rural masses and his crowd mobilization capability are unparalleled. He is a definite asset to BJP.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2014 22:06

Dilbu wrote:I always felt BR is an unnecessary baggage in NaMo's team. It is people like these who have nothing to contribute except huge potential for gaffe who will do more damage to NaMo's campaign as well as his rule in the near future.

without the monkeys, lord ram would not have built the bridge to quell the evil ravans.
each stone was as important as the other, and more important than ram stepping on the bridge.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 22:09

On Bengal .. Why is BJP often referred to as "Hindu" party by its opponent? Will one statement confuse the Hindus, Muslims, Christians and others about the basic fabric of BJP?

On top of that Modi's image of a Hindu hardliner, does not matter if it is true of false, will suddenly evaporate?

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 28 Apr 2014 22:15

BJP being referred to as "Hindu" party in Bengal may not matter much due to demographic reasons.
There are already three parties for Muslim votes, and they being 25%+ are already in conflict situation with the majority. So, BJP cannot do much with them.

Christian population is negligible. Hindu population is not divided on caste lines. That leaves the RSS to nurture the tribal population on dharmic lines. With this setup "Hindu" tag is fine to manage along.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 28 Apr 2014 22:16

Did they call Bharatiya Jindu Party?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 28 Apr 2014 22:19

Don't remember which charity got the money from painting. I am not confident that the local WB BJP have enough boots on the ground to explain things. You either explain directly who are illegals and who refugees or do not talk about in in WB. An even better approach would have been if he said he will take on the BD Govt to ensure security for Hindus in BD as many Bengalies still have family in BD. Would have gotten support of refugees. The other thing about Mamata's vote bank politics is good. There will be a tectonic shift in WB politics if it becomes a fight between TMC and BJP.

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Apr 2014 22:24

vivek.rao wrote:
pankajs wrote:Dalit vote moving to BJP is what will transform the wave into the Tsunamo that will sweep every party aside. Given the reports indicating precisely that happening everyone is trying to drive a wedge between Dalits and BJP. Baba RD's statement provided all the sides opposed to BJP the opening they were all looking for and Baba got caught in the middle.
Firstpost is all over how BR's honeymoon remark has destroyed Dalit vote for BJP.

Is it all over? Maya/CON is going big on this along with PAIDEMDIA

Because of the Media focus on this, of course, it can be dangerous. Anything to do with "insult", "humiliation", "affront" against a community is dangerous.

I've been trying to tell Ramdev and Congress, that one should simply say, Ramdev meant Rahul Gandhi visiting a Dalit home for a "honeymoon" but the honeymoon was a reference to David Miliband. Then Ramdev can say he apologizes for casting aspersions on the sexual orientation of Rahul Gandhi, but he brought it up because David Miliband just happens to be anti-Indian and pro-Pakistani and during his visit post Mumbai Attacks, he rubbed salt in the wounds of Indians by asking India to solve Kashmir issue, as if Kashmir legitimizes terrorist attacks against India.

He can say, he did not want to spell out these things in so much detail but was forced due to the controversy that he had insulted Dalits, which is not the case.

Ramdev can say he doesn't have incontrovertible proof of a sexual relationship between Rahul Gandhi and David Miliband and as such he was not so explicit, but wanted the nation to think about it as it touched on national security.

If Ramdev and BJP can say all this, all this drama about Dalits being insulted would come to an end.

Link to the issue

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 28 Apr 2014 22:35

Being a Hindhu party in a Hindhu majority place should be an advantage, no? ...unless people don't consider themselves Hindhu anymore...

----
Saars,
change is in air,
dhothi will dance and lungi will shiver,
abki baar Modi sarkaar.

Moral of the story: no dhothi shivering.

I haven't been following the MSM. So, don't know the exact details of what Baba Ramdev said, but it does not seem like he insulted the dhaliths or anyone else other than pappu. It seems the opponents are desperately trying to manufacture some fake controversy in their desperation. I don't think it is going to have any impact.

I think people have made up their minds and seem to be supporting Modi all across. I think AP was the only place that was untouched by Modi mania, but even AP is starting to get gripped with Modi effect. I don't think people are going to listen to anything his opponents say now. Modi will get one good mandate this time and then people will start questions the next time.

----
OK, I just watched the exact quote:
It seems the objections are being raised to one word 'honeymoon'. I don't think this will have any impact but the opponents don't seem to have anything, so they are latching on to this. It seems to me that Baba Ramdev is saying that pappu could have become a PM if he had married a dhalith girl, but he does not want to marry a dhalith girl even though he visits their homes.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 28 Apr 2014 22:35

Need to watch what the CongI on Twitter are saying? If they keep harping on it that means they think they are onto something

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Apr 2014 22:38

dna ‏@dna 1h

#ModiOnZee Chidambaram should ask himself why are rating agencies not giving him credit for the stock market hitting new highs.

dna ‏@dna 1h

LIVE #ModiOnZee Anyone who have doubt about me, please come to Gujarat and stay for 10 days: Modi on minorities http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-li ... di-1983080 …

dna ‏@dna 1h

#ModiOnZee If domestic issues are solved, we will be stronger on an international platform http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-li ... di-1983080 …

dna ‏@dna 1h

#ModiOnZee I am not worried about my security, never was, never will be.

dna ‏@dna 2h

#ModiOnZee The injustice the media has shown me, even God won't forgive them.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 28 Apr 2014 22:50

Supratik wrote:Don't remember which charity got the money from painting. I am not confident that the local WB BJP have enough boots on the ground to explain things. You either explain directly who are illegals and who refugees or do not talk about in in WB. An even better approach would have been if he said he will take on the BD Govt to ensure security for Hindus in BD as many Bengalies still have family in BD. Would have gotten support of refugees. The other thing about Mamata's vote bank politics is good. There will be a tectonic shift in WB politics if it becomes a fight between TMC and BJP.

How many times will he say that? He has told it publicly in silchar that hindus from other countries will be allowed and other illegals will be thrown out. I dont think he needs to explain more. In any event, it is all sound bytes, BJP will not won any seat in Bengal this time also. As far as expelling bangladeshis, I will believe it when i see MHA's monthly report card.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 28 Apr 2014 22:56

The only chance that left has , to contain Mamta Didi , is to split seats and votes with BJP. In the process it would be mauled badly. If it fails to encourage its cadre to vote for BJP , Did would surely finish it. So looks like they have difficult choice.

As far as sending BD homes part of statement is concerned , it will be seen in the context of earlier statement that Hindu Refugees would be protected. He has invoked sentiments of Biharis and Oriyas which form a large chunk of populace. They would find resonance in NaMo chant.

He has scathingly painted Didi in a corner. For rest of the election period , She would be explaining when she did not get 1.8 cr and who did not give it and how she did not use it.

Didi must be smarting under this pincer attack.

That is why there is a vitriolic retort from Drunk o' Brine

Murugan · Post by **Murugan** » 28 Apr 2014 22:59

Farooq Abdulla with Bhindranwale

https://twitter.com/pradeepsingh83/stat ... to/1/large

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 28 Apr 2014 23:15

jamwal wrote:VikasRaina ji
Any information about Udhampur and Laddakh seats ? Laddakh BJP candidate is a former MP. BJP has a fighting chance in Udhampur too.

Jamwal ji, Udhampur seat would be hard for Dr.Jitendra Singh to win. There isn't too much of negative feelings against congress in this part of the world. In the hindsight he probably wasn't the right candidate for the seat. This is based upon feedback from few folks from Jammu whom I chatted with.

BJP most likely should win Ladakh seat.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 28 Apr 2014 23:22

VikasRaina wrote:
jamwal wrote:VikasRaina ji
Any information about Udhampur and Laddakh seats ? Laddakh BJP candidate is a former MP. BJP has a fighting chance in Udhampur too.
Jamwal ji, Udhampur seat would be hard for Dr.Jitendra Singh to win. There isn't too much of negative feelings against congress in this part of the world. In the hindsight he probably wasn't the right candidate for the seat. This is based upon feedback from few folks from Jammu whom I chatted with.

BJP most likely should win Ladakh seat.

And the Jammu seat?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2014 00:12

VikasRaina wrote:
jamwal wrote:VikasRaina ji
Any information about Udhampur and Laddakh seats ? Laddakh BJP candidate is a former MP. BJP has a fighting chance in Udhampur too.
Jamwal ji, Udhampur seat would be hard for Dr.Jitendra Singh to win. There isn't too much of negative feelings against congress in this part of the world. In the hindsight he probably wasn't the right candidate for the seat. This is based upon feedback from few folks from Jammu whom I chatted with.

BJP most likely should win Ladakh seat.

This is the paagal gardhi that goes on everywhere. The JK folks have to know that local level how strategic it is important to polarize against mullah appeasing parties. For example, the Western UP folks do exactly that. In this JK world the love for the congress party even under extinction does not change. Say in Maha or AP if it happens because they don't take any direct hits and being pagal can be called ignorant. What's wrong with Jammu folks?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 01:02

OK, here are my predictions (I do trust 5forty3 and other opinion polls, but I also have posted before and have an extensive database on the previous exit and opinion polls (the credible ones) and the correction factor that is required to match them with reality). So I have applied that in conjunction with my own analysis and inputs received.

Unlike what many others believe, I think this is a very good performance by BJP even with the 188 I see them getting. Namo can comfortably form a govt with those numbers.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Apr 2014 01:08

^^^Thanks. Could you give a statewide break down, of your opinion of course, of the top 10 most vote rich states?

188 for BJP is less than 5% more than 1999. IMHO, I see the BJP alone doing slightly better as they are garnering a bigger piece of the electoral pie.

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 29 Apr 2014 01:19

muraliravi, I am tend to agree with your perception of the situation. where do you see the other seats to get past 272 coming from ?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 01:22

Mort Walker wrote:^^^Thanks. Could you give a statewide break down, of your opinion of course, of the top 10 most vote rich states?

188 for BJP is less than 5% more than 1999. IMHO, I see the BJP alone doing slightly better as they are garnering a bigger piece of the electoral pie.

One problem is they screwed up in Karnataka.

In 1999 they won 9 seats in Orissa, 4 in TN (this time i dont expect anything for bjp on its own in TN), they swept punjab (4/4 for them), In andhra they got 7 for themselves. Thats 24 seats in 1999, this time, it will be 2 in these 4 states.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 01:24

Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, I am tend to agree with your perception of the situation. where do you see the other seats to get past 272 coming from ?

Sir, In that post, I have put the 35 other seats that are up for grabs. NCP, DMK are all dalal parties that can be easily handled by BJP. The other straightforward route (but that will kill BJP TN and Orissa State units) is to take support from ADMK (20) and BJD (14) and get 34 seats. With that they can reach 269. You can always get 3 more.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 01:29

Please also note that, I am not inclined to place heavy trust on 5forty3 for Orissa and TN. He/his team has not done the survey there. They are using 3rd party sources in these states and it will be better to not expect any returns for the BJP there. Again, in orissa csds march tracker did give BJP 3-7 seats, so it may very well be the case, but I prefer to be conservative. Even UP they may go much higher. who knows, but I can say with reasonable confidence that BJP will get AT LEAST 188

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Apr 2014 01:30

So the mistakes of 2014 will eat in to the gains? This implies there is no NAMO wave.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 29 Apr 2014 01:33

muraliravi wrote:
Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, I am tend to agree with your perception of the situation. where do you see the other seats to get past 272 coming from ?
Sir, In that post, I have put the 35 other seats that are up for grabs. NCP, DMK are all dalal parties that can be easily handled by BJP. The other straightforward route (but that will kill BJP TN and Orissa State units) is to take support from ADMK (20) and BJD (14) and get 34 seats. With that they can reach 269. You can always get 3 more.

NCP will not join the NDA. It might be easier to turn Jaya and Patnaik but I would have been more comfortable if they had been making ambivalent statements before and during the polls. But Patnaik, AFAIK has ruled out joining the NDA and Jaya is busy attacking the Gujarat model.

debadutta · Post by **debadutta** » 29 Apr 2014 01:44

nageshks wrote:In general, I tend to track smaller parties as well, in LS polls. I have a couple of Qs if anyone here is from J-K or Odisha.

How is Bhim Singh's Panthers Party doing in Jammu region? What effect will Bhim Singh contesting Udhampur have? Since none of the analyses have mentioned him, I take it that he has no chance to win. Whose vote will he damage?

What, if anything, will be the impact of Soumya Ranjan Patnaik's Aama Odisha Party?

Soumya Patnaik's party will have Zero impact . If any he will damage Con party's vote.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 29 Apr 2014 01:44

Dhoti shivering onlee...

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 29 Apr 2014 01:46

Muppalla wrote: This is the paagal gardhi that goes on everywhere. The JK folks have to know that local level how strategic it is important to polarize against mullah appeasing parties. For example, the Western UP folks do exactly that. In this JK world the love for the congress party even under extinction does not change. Say in Maha or AP if it happens because they don't take any direct hits and being pagal can be called ignorant. What's wrong with Jammu folks?

Muppalla-ji,
In both Jammu seats, voting percentage went up by more than 20% compared to last time. If BJP still cannot win with 20% extra voting (a considerable part of it due to the NaMo wave), with higher voting in the Hindu areas like Samba, Reasi, Kathua, and Jammu, nothing will ever help BJP win in Jammu. But then again, maybe that is the truth.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Apr 2014 01:47

If NDA doesn't come this time, then BJP is permanently finished. The forces of darkness have already won.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 29 Apr 2014 01:51

Mort Walker wrote:If NDA doesn't come this time, then BJP is permanently finished. The forces of darkness have already won.

Sir, even with these conservative numbers, I see no reason as to why an NDA govt will not be formed. It may involve some compromise like killing some state units to please regional leaders who may offer support in exchange for that.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 29 Apr 2014 01:51

This election is extremely hard to predict beyond baseline confidence seats that muraliravi posted. Ideally, near historically record turnout in practically every battleground state should imply a vote for change. However, this is far easier to state in a two way fight. When there are 3-4 way fights in so many place with a first past the post scheme, it becomes much harder to predict right. Muraliravi's data gives a good baseline. There's a significant potential for an upside beyond those estimates, but the problem is that it is very hard to state it credibly. The picture will be clearer starting May 12th evening once exit polls are permitted, and the story will be fully known by the afternoon of May 16th.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Apr 2014 01:59

Even CSDS exit polls were wrong in 2009. Unless, they've improved methodology, I see no reason for them to be right this time.

If the NDA can't get well over 272 on its own, there will be groups that will buy off MPs with outside money from the gulf and EJs. A bare minimum NDA government IMHO won't last a full term.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 29 Apr 2014 02:04

Suraj wrote:This election is extremely hard to predict beyond baseline confidence seats that muraliravi posted. Ideally, near historically record turnout in practically every battleground state should imply a vote for change. However, this is far easier to state in a two way fight. When there are 3-4 way fights in so many place with a first past the post scheme, it becomes much harder to predict right. Muraliravi's data gives a good baseline. There's a significant potential for an upside beyond those estimates, but the problem is that it is very hard to state it credibly. The picture will be clearer starting May 12th evening once exit polls are permitted, and the story will be fully known by the afternoon of May 16th.

My miserably failed 2009 predictions also were BJP=180.

At that time we don't have Twitter/FB type on the ground reporters to collate and analyze data. We had a bunch of paid-media exit/opinion pollsters and one GVL-the official BJP pollsters. The baseline of BJP being beyond 180 will be know in this election. They should cross 200 as they had a great campaign and strategy this time. If they cross then that will become a new baseline for future. Until then the rule of thumb is that if we have a good wave then 180 is assured. We don't then we go down. Anything BJP gets more than 180 then an new baseline is set.

Regarding more turnout means more BJP, I want to pour some cold water on that theory. (1) 2009 AP election has more than 2004 AP elections. There was no change to YSR. (2) UP assembly election has historic high that put Akilesh to power. However, BJP did not do any great than their previous Assembly elections.

If Modi gets 200 or 220, 230 then folks can say I said so but that is a coincidence. Anything beyond 180 is not in the analysis data yet.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 29 Apr 2014 02:06

muraliravi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:If NDA doesn't come this time, then BJP is permanently finished. The forces of darkness have already won.
Sir, even with these conservative numbers, I see no reason as to why an NDA govt will not be formed. It may involve some compromise like killing some state units to please regional leaders who may offer support in exchange for that.

By killing off state units, then forget about 2019 and later. Also, I am more willing to promote regional parties over Congress in order to keep them below 100.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 29 Apr 2014 02:08

Mort Walker wrote:So the mistakes of 2014 will eat in to the gains? This implies there is no NAMO wave.

Not really Without NaMo it would have been 5 more years of RaGa with SS singing bhajans in Lok Sabha!

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 29 Apr 2014 02:10

SRoy wrote:the moronic Kalighat hag will get a shock.

my FIL was a card carrying commie. now he and rest of oldies in the housing estate have already pledged for lotus.

same in office, IT serfs pissed off with goondaism in streets, house keeping staff hit by chit fund scam.

Roy-Saar,
glad to hear that. I'm experiencing same too. But these are in urban/semi-urban areas, and the big question is how well this trend will hold in rural areas. If lotus gets more than 15% vote this time in WB, and NaMo comes to power in center, then more and more lotus will bloom in WB state election which is just
two years away. Indeed we are seeing a transformation in Bharat.

manju · Post by **manju** » 29 Apr 2014 02:10

pankajs wrote:On Bengal .. Why is BJP often referred to as "Hindu" party by its opponent? Will one statement confuse the Hindus, Muslims, Christians and others about the basic fabric of BJP?

On top of that Modi's image of a Hindu hardliner, does not matter if it is true of false, will suddenly evaporate?

I think we should start calling others as anti-Hindu party.