"TonySoprano wrote:
Whatever you guys, I still think India has atleast 70-80 million Christians and many of the predominantly Australoid Dravidians and former Untouchables have had enough of caste oppression by Brahmins. Hinduism is clearly not the answer, India needs a liberating religion that is truly universal, non-violent, and is found in the heritage of India: I see no other option other than Buddhism. Infact, where many former Untouchables converted to Buddhism, the Church's plan of harvesting souls have failed.
Just curious, whose side are you really on? Is NaMo a Buddhist?
I am against conversions to Abrahamic religions and I think Hinduism is not conducive to national solidarity hence my preference is Buddhism. Mind you, I much rather prefer to live in Hindu majority India than Christian or Muslim India.
NaMo has great respect for Buddhism like he does for all dharmic faiths. It is not for no reason that Dalit leader Udit Raj who converted lakhs of Dalits from Hinduism to Buddhism is now a BJP member.
And all this is clearly OT and this will be my last post on this thread regarding religion.
"I think Hinduism is not conducive to national solidarity"
I think that says it all. Are you Kancha Ilaiah? He says exactly the same same thing.
As for Buddhism, I prefer the muscular Myanmar kind that ensures national solidarity
In 2009, RM wrote an essay which came out on Tehelka (a phase when I interacted a lot with RM incl editing this piece). It poses some interesting questions whose answers will emerge over the next decade or two. See http://archive.tehelka.com/story_main41 ... we_the.asp NaMo was not on the national scene at the time and his name does not figure in the essay. Also see a more recent essay on Varna as social capital here: http://www.speakingtree.in/spiritual-bl ... of-capital. In essence, we have a sophisticated theory that can be used to inform societal development. Most Sekoolars cannot comprehend.
Of one thing I am certain: To survive, a nation requires a cultural essence, and in India it should not be a monoculture, particularly any -ism that is grafted from without; We have continuous threads of traditions (Hinduism) that have a sophisticated toolbox and fits India's needs. Jati identity has a lot of positives and we need to understand and use that in ways that contribute to nation building. There is a lot of loose talk about "dumping caste" that neglects to comprehend some of the positives of Jatis in the Indian context (and the huge negatives if these collapse catastrophically).
May 16 is day 1 of the beginning of this national identity building project. On May 12 all the exit poll projections will be available. We are nearly there.
C'mon please spare this thread. Already the Namo thread has been polluted, this thread is the only refuge for people who want to have a serious discussion on the electoral analytics. Take your hinduism, buddhism, idea of India etc.. elsewhere.
UP yesterday, 14 went to poll, out of which RaiBareli is sure loss for BJP 2 more in 60/40 zone so that makes the probable score line for 30th April BJP=11 Congress=1 Sapa=2 BaSaPa=0(the reason mayaben was yelling obscenities at BRD BJP and whole of duniya without her daily visit to her beautician ) that makes BJP's score for UP till now 39 out of 47 so far.
Bihar 7 seats went to poll and the scoreline reads........... pliss do not hold your breaths: BJP=7 others=0
Jalebi for your breakfasts: shocking even the BJP(though pleasently) West Bengal BJP=7 Commies=2 TMC=0
and the usual NaMo will lose onree
coz
aab ki baar Modi sarkar onree.
I am going to post here how congress can get 130 so that EVM rigging theory lovers can take a moment to seriously introspect and actually understand how difficult it is push a monster called congress below 100 seats.
JK -2 (Anyone with a neutral understanding of the 2 seats in Jammu will testify to you that BJP and Cong are neck and neck here, so cong winning 2 seats needs absolutely no EVM magic)
Himachal -2 (History is witness to the fact that this is one state which has loyally alternated between BJP and cong election after election. 98 and 99 had same results, but that was becos it was considered just a repeat election, BJP won 3-1 last time, theoretically cong can win 3-1 this time, but lets say 2. Dont tell me Namo wave is special here, there have been waves before and HP still alternated)
Punjab - 6 (Enough has been discussed about Punjab here)
Haryana - 4 (2-3 is sure, but they can pull off 1-2 more close seats)
Delhi - 1
Uttar Pradesh - 8
Bihar - 4 (refer to Nagesh ji's post on congress seats in Bihar)
Jharkhand - 1
Assam - 9 (BJP can be easily stopped at 3, AGP 0, AUDF 2, rest 9 to INC)
West Bengal -5
Arunachal -2 (both are close fights and Cong can pull both off),
Mizoram, Meghalaya and Manipur (5)
Orissa - 7 (I believe that BJP will not win more than 1 seat, all their wave will split BJD vote and the loyal congress voters will help cong gain. I am not the first and only one to say this, IBTL has said the same thing and was confirmed in their survey)
TG/AP - 8
Kerala - 14 (Thanks to BJP for splitting the hindu vote royally)
Karnataka - 18 (Refer to 5forty3 prepoll he gave bjp 12 and cong 14, but put a caveat saying 9 is min for bjp and 18 is max for cong, and csds march survey, 18 is the max, but again i am telling u guys how cong can get 130)
MH - 13 (the most controversial state for cong performance, but lets stick to numbers here. Today IBNlive had a good discussion with a csds member on voting % and he had a slip of a tongue and mentioned that they were seeing do diff in their march prepoll numbers and the exit poll data they have collected in all states except a few seats in bihar where they see MY consolidation denting NDA a bit; this is exactly the feedback i have from MH instead of all the sweep we hear. Atri ji can correct if i am wrong, but he also repeatedly warns us that NDA wont cross 30 in MH. Csds Mar gave NDA 24-30 and UPA 16-22. So they can get 20, easily inc can pull of 13 and NCP 7)
Goa, Andaman, Lakshadweep and Chandigarh - 4 (Cong will win Chandigarh with gul panag destroying kiron kher's chances, Andaman swings usually and i doubt if there is any tsunamo there, there maybe a tsunami)
Rajasthan - 5 (100% sure that 5 seats will go to cong, thanks to maharani and her ego)
Gujarat - 4
Madhya Pradesh - 4 (Chindwara, Guna, Rajgarh and the seat with Bhuria and I guess even 543 was giving 3-4 seats to cong there)
Chhattisgarh - 3 (this is a minimal number, the assembly to LS conversion actually gives cong 5 seats, i wont be surprised if that happens)
Uttarakhand - 1
Thats 130 for cong. I maybe wrong in some states, but i guess the effect should cancel out, and remember i am saying max of cong. but its possible and needs no magic.
Last edited by muraliravi on 01 May 2014 07:18, edited 1 time in total.
Can someone put a detailed post on why Yadavs of Bihar dont feel part of the unified spectrum of hindu vote this time for BJP/Modi and similarly the Yadavs of UP. I mean what is it that they see in Lalu/Mulayam that makes them different from other OBC groups who have voted heavily for the BJP on many occasions including this time. Dont they want a better future? I can understand muslims not voting BJP and to some extent the attraction for Mayawati among dalits, but what do these guys have to fear in a BJP govt??
Niran ji, so does it make sense to ask what the sample size is on this booth polling data? Or don't I understand what's going on here?
What are the recent satta rates on Modi PM-ship? Did they increase (lower odds of Modi victory) after all the FIR, Baba Ramdev's honeymoon remarks, vagera vagera?
sigh! it is not optimisum Saar, it is based on the data collected during and after polling at booth level per seat.
See, that is why I trust your data and to an extent that of the 543 gent, since they are based upon poll data collection and not conjectures based upon the quality of candidates or other factors.
If people simply want to be pessimistic, let's all just assume NDA will get 190 seats and leave it at that till May 16. That will make this thread very simple - and very dead.
niran wrote:UP yesterday, 14 went to poll, out of which RaiBareli is sure loss for BJP 2 more in 60/40 zone so that makes the probable score line for 30th April BJP=11 Congress=1 Sapa=2 BaSaPa=0(the reason mayaben was yelling obscenities at BRD BJP and whole of duniya without her daily visit to her beautician ) that makes BJP's score for UP till now 39 out of 47 so far.
Bihar 7 seats went to poll and the scoreline reads........... pliss do not hold your breaths: BJP=7 others=0
Jalebi for your breakfasts: shocking even the BJP(though pleasently) West Bengal BJP=7 Commies=2 TMC=0
and the usual NaMo will lose onree
coz
aab ki baar Modi sarkar onree.
Can you tell us which sources you are using to justify such projections?
EDIT: nevermind, you answered in a previous post that you are getting booth info. Aap ke muh me ghee shakkar
Last edited by member_24042 on 01 May 2014 07:29, edited 1 time in total.
Mihaylo wrote:Murali, great post...can you present a similar analysis for BJP/NDA.
-M
Will do that shortly sir. One more thing people need to realize is that an increasing cong tally does not always dent BJP's tally. Take the case below. In 2009, BJP+INC was 320 seats. In 2009 BJP+INC in UP was roughly 30 seats. But this time, it is very likely that BJP+Cong will get 55 seats in UP, In 2009 BJP+Cong in Bihar was 13 seats, This time it is likely to be 24 seats. What I am trying to say is that these are gains from regional parties towards the 2 national parties. But INC lost ground in AP to regional parties and BJP + INC in AP will dip from 33 to roughly 10 seats. In all other places, for all practical purposes the gains and losses are shared by regional parties or by BJP and INC directly. So the net sum is a 13 seat gain for the BJP+INC tally taking it to roughly 333 seats. Oh wait, some gain will be made by AAP, INLD etc.. at the loss of BJP, INC. So lets say 325.
So essentially BJP+INC will be 325. So if Cong is 130, BJP will be 195 and so forth.
KLP Dubey wrote:
If people simply want to be pessimistic, let's all just assume NDA will get 190 seats and leave it at that till May 16. That will make this thread very simple - and very dead.
Sir I am not being pessimistic, I just want to say that, all is not hunky dory so that people dont see 130 for cong on counting day and start yelling at EVM's that all.
I presume you meant BJP 190 seats, KLP sir. It's an interesting psychological phenomenon, this alternating between hope and despair. Makes for a case study by itself. Me, I've decided to go the Indic way and believe that Dharma will win.
the exact methods cannot be revealed:
just this cadres known who have soft corners to which party and how many people with soft corners what party voted in what booth
based on that win/lose probablity is counted.
Muraliravi saar,
I'll explain why kongis cannot get above 75 without magic:
kongis gave T and are supposed to be at an advantage in T. Inspite of that, kongi workers seem to be saying,"vote for Modi in MP elections, and vote for TRS or kongis in assy elections(because they expect both of them to come together to form a local govt)." This is happening in T which is the only place where there is supposed to be some hope for the kongis. So, if the kongi position is so bad in T, then imagine the position in other areas. And in T, lotus is non-existent except for NaMo effect.
I think people are underestimating the impact of inflation, misrule and minority pandering. Anti-incumbency is very strong. Now, add NaMo effect that and you get a TsuNaMo. Pshepologists who are still calculating based on previous elections are missing the whole picture. This election is not like previous elections because of severe anti-incumbency(such severe anti-incumbency was not seen perhaps from the time of VP Singh) and Modi wave(the last time was perhaps, Rajiv). When both these factors are added, it transcends all caste calculations. The only thing acting against lotus is lack of organization on the ground. If the lotus already had an organization on the ground, then lotus would have repeated the performances of Maimuna Priyadharshini. But, despite the lack of oranization, lotus is still able to do well. Infact, the organization is going to grow in new areas because of the wave.
The major takeaway of these elections is pan-Hindhu consolidation across caste and class in both urban/rural areas. This is the major factor: there is a pan-Hindhu undercurrent that is leading to Modi victory.
This consolidation phenomenon needs to be studied.
a) Modi has an image of being a hardcore Hindhuthva-vaadhi.
b) Total appeasement for a decade has created severe backlash in the populace.
c) Modi is a person from humble background and from a backward caste.
d) Modi is directly challenging the ruling dynasty.
e) Modi is challenging the narrative of the ruling dynasty.
f) Modi is talking about development and has already demonstrated its viability in Guj.
g) Economic stagnation along with complete misrule is making the people gravitate towards Modi.
h) Modi is seen as the last/only hope for the Bhaarath while all others have ganged up against Modi. All others have same narrative or ideology.
----
Suraj saar,
in one of the previous posts you had said that the Hindhuthva may be more attractive to the old while the jobs/development plank would be attractive to the young. While that seems logical, I think it is not true on the ground. It seems to me that it is the young who are most pro-Hindhuthva and it is the old who are gravitating towards Modi due to development plank. This is because the young are unapologetic and aspirational about Hindhuism just as they are aspirational about other issues whereas the old(above 40 in general) have been exposed to secular narrative for so long that they still have some reservations.
It is the young, who are less exposed to the secular narrative, who seem to be the most ardent fans of Hindhuthva. Also, it is the young who are exposed to the muscle-flexing of other communities in terms of rallies or political speeches. These things don't have much impact on the old because they are cynical.
The younger a person is, more likely he'll vote based on ideologies. Older person is more likely to vote for bread and butter. Above 60, the equations change. Below 20, people will vote based on family or friends views(if they vote at all). In a way, both above 60 and below 20 are similar because both of them are influenced by the near and dear ones.
20-40 group are the driving force that determine which side has the advantage. Modi has tapped into this group heavily.
----
I will be surprised pleasantly if the kongis give up power non-violently. Because they seem to facing very worst possibilities once they give up power.
johneeG wrote:Muraliravi saar,
I'll explain why kongis cannot get above 75 without magic:
kongis gave T and are supposed to be at an advantage in T. Inspite of that, kongi workers seem to be saying,"vote for Modi in MP elections, and vote for TRS or kongis in assy elections(because they expect both of them to come together to form a local govt)." This is happening in T which is the only place where there is supposed to be some hope for the kongis. So, if the kongi position is so bad in T, then imagine the position in other areas. And in T, lotus is non-existent except for NaMo effect.
Sir what you are saying here are just news bits, they dont mean much in the scheme of electoral numbers. In the absence of any survey agency funded by bharat rakshak, we can only choose the best survey agency among the worst out there. That happens to be csds in my opinion. they gave cong 4-8 in TG in their march tracker. I can also give you instances of Sabotage within BJP rajasthan unit in at least 9 seats outside the sure shot 2 seats they would have lost, does that mean BJP will get only 14/25, same is the case in MH. There are at least 7 bjp seats where shiv sena cadre supported NCP/INC as a reaction to the tacit deal bjp struck with MNS, so should we say that BJP is in contest in only 15 of the 22 seats they are contesting in MH. News here and there dont mean much sir. There is absolutely no way congress will get below 100 seats in this election. If there is a online betting website you want to suggest, I am willing to bet there and fellow brfites who think otherwise can bet against me there.
KLP Dubey wrote:
If people simply want to be pessimistic, let's all just assume NDA will get 190 seats and leave it at that till May 16. That will make this thread very simple - and very dead.
Sir I am not being pessimistic, I just want to say that, all is not hunky dory so that people dont see 130 for cong on counting day and start yelling at EVM's that all.
All the jingos here are so tired of the social, economic and strategic malaise in our lifetimes that we are beholden to NAMO. All of us want NAMO to build hundreds of gallows to hang the desh drohis in all states, strengthen internal and external security and revive the economy. From day one we want UCC, repeal of Art. 370, repeal of "socialist" in the constitution, testing of TNWs+ICBMs, and Indian men on the moon. I personally want to see the tearing down of all Gandhi/Nehru statues, like what was seen of Lenin and Stalin in the early 1990s in Russia. I would also like removal of all Gandhi/Nehru names on public facilities and buildings.
You're bringing us back to reality which is appreciated, but I personally and maybe others, can't handle.
Mihaylo wrote:Murali, great post...can you present a similar analysis for BJP/NDA.
-M
Will do that shortly sir. One more thing people need to realize is that an increasing cong tally does not always dent BJP's tally. Take the case below. In 2009, BJP+INC was 320 seats. In 2009 BJP+INC in UP was roughly 30 seats. But this time, it is very likely that BJP+Cong will get 55 seats in UP, In 2009 BJP+Cong in Bihar was 13 seats, This time it is likely to be 24 seats. What I am trying to say is that these are gains from regional parties towards the 2 national parties. But INC lost ground in AP to regional parties and BJP + INC in AP will dip from 33 to roughly 10 seats. In all other places, for all practical purposes the gains and losses are shared by regional parties or by BJP and INC directly. So the net sum is a 13 seat gain for the BJP+INC tally taking it to roughly 333 seats. Oh wait, some gain will be made by AAP, INLD etc.. at the loss of BJP, INC. So lets say 325.
So essentially BJP+INC will be 325. So if Cong is 130, BJP will be 195 and so forth.
This is what I said long time ago. BJP+Congress is 325 seats.
I was worried about AAP eating a chunk here but they went Paki way.
Now you gave 195 to BJP.
In 2009 others got 215 seats. Out of this ~25 were NDA partners.
Now in the remaining 190, other than BJD & to some extent TMC everyone is weakened. Add YSRCP & TRS 15 to this. So BJD+TMC+YSRCP+TRS is 65 seats.
Every other turd-fronted is losing. In the remaining 135 seats BJP+NDA can easily get 70 seats.
That makes NDA tally 195+25+70= 290 as a most likely scenario.
After this, every seat INC loses from 130 is BJP's gain. If INC goes below 100 NDA will be 320+
Nijalingappa wrote:I always felt Congi and gang will snatch 160 to 180 by hook or crook.
Then are we heading fro Delhi like situation?
I hope not
Congis along with their buddies if they make to 160 it is still not enough. BJP will still have 24o seats + partnets like DMK/ADMK/Mamta to get to 272. Based on his track record Modi will not allow corrupt leaders to survive from the partners
The standard for the kongis right now is ~140 if there is no wave pro or anti. If there is pro wave, then add 50 seats for kongis. If there is anti-wave, then delete 50 seats for kongis. If there is pro wave for opponents, then delete 20 seats for kongis.
Right now, there is anti wave against kongis and pro wave for its opponents. That means
140 - (50+20) = 70.
70 is the avg of the kongis in this election. Anything more than that is magic.
The standard for the lotus is 160. If there is pro-wave, add 50 seats. If there is anti-wave, delete 50 seats. If there is pro-wave for the opponents delete 20 seats. If there is anti-wave for opponents, add 20 seats.
So,
160+(50+20) = 230.
230 is the avg of the lotus in this election.
I think this is not just a simple pro-wave, but a massive wave(if not TsuNaMo).
So, 230 is the base-line or minimum for lotus.
It is surely a zero sum game with the total size being 350 in this election. Congi 100 and BJP 250. This is nothing but decimation of congis but then their spin machine will try to make even this one as a win for toffee baba and his mama! Remeber when NAMO won 2/3rd majority in last guj elections and how it was spund around as his defeat! But what these jokers donot under stand is that "public sab janti hai".
