Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 01 May 2014 23:40

SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

Depression is setting in. Need to visit maikhana on the way home.

-M

arminius · Post by **arminius** » 01 May 2014 23:44

SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

Sounds reasonable. Though would be tragedy of epic proportion. Desh ka durbhagya

munna · Post by **munna** » 01 May 2014 23:46

arminius wrote:
SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.
Sounds reasonable. Though would be tragedy of epic proportion. Desh ka durbhagya

At 250 NDA its a Modi govt. Period!

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 23:47

ramana wrote:Muraliravi, Need to ask you only.

What will be teh numbers for all regional satraps:

Mamata, JJ, Nitish, Mullhayam, Lalu and Commies anyother Congress mukut?

I think not more than 20 each at first cut.

From where will these jokers bring 20 each ?? More likely:

JDU: 3-5
RJD: 3-5
SP: 10-15
BSP:5-10
BJD:12-15
AIADMK: 12-15
DMK: 10-15
NCP:3-5
Commies: 15-20
TMC: 15-20
Total all above: 88-125

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 May 2014 23:47

muraliravi,

Can I ask you a question? Are your projections based on leaked exit poll info from CSDS? or is it your own?
You can ignore this question if you want to.

Regards,
V

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 01 May 2014 23:48

^^
Oh no, the above means, left, Amma, DMK, Maya, Mullah.I.am etc etc etc are all together on the same side. What are the chances of that happening ?

Seriously 250 NDA is in govt in bag. I suspect it will be more. Anyway NCP etc will happily support.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 01 May 2014 23:49

Those that are saying 250 means Modi govt.
And who'll bring in the other 22?
At the best it will be a ABV v2.0, even if Modi manages to stay put.
Get real.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 23:49

If NDA gets 250 I hope Jayalalitha does a 180 and supports them in return for ministerial berths. Rest of the seats can be cobbled together.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 01 May 2014 23:50

Guys,
NDA at 250 means Modi will be PM. No question of any UPA-3. There will be around 10-15 "independents" who are available to any party. and either DMK or ADMK will take them above 272.

nachiket · Post by **nachiket** » 01 May 2014 23:51

Sanku wrote: Seriously 250 NDA is in govt in bag. I suspect it will be more. Anyway NCP etc will happily support.

Why are you guys so confident about NCP? I saw muraliravi counting on their support somewhere too. And if they do support, I fully expect Uddhav Thackeray to walk out.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 23:52

Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, may I ask something to see if I have this right - bosechem (with a decent record of his own) is saying despite the M+Y consolidation enabling the RJD+Cong combine to do quite well - that even now the NDA may be around 205-215 ?

And that even CSDS is still predicting around 195 NDA (or is that BJP) without Bihar/UP even after all the disasters mishaps, mispeaks, mistakes and missed opportunities ?

Sir CSDS is its march tracker gave BJP 193-212 on its own (not NDA). So some slip in Bihar by 5 seats wont change their tally much.

Coming to bosechem, i can see how he is getting his numbers. Lets look at his numbers only until phase 6 where he is saying NDA is 165-175 out of 349.

Assam +Other NE - 5
UP (33 seats until phase 6) - 26
Maharashtra - 28 (thats what he predicts and that is the exact midpoint of csds march tracker and in fact even consistent with Atri ji)
Madhya Pradesh - 26
Chhattisgarh - 9
Delhi - 6
Haryana - 5
Rajasthan - 21
Jharkhand - 10
Karnataka - 12
Andaman -1
Goa -1
JK-1
Orissa -4

Thats makes 155 without Bihar and other small ones here and there. I guess that how he gets his 165. Maybe he uses full sweeps in RJ etc.. for 175.. I am just guessing

But you and Sanku are right, I just carried away i guess seeing it from him. 165-175 until phase 6 itself looks rather high

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 01 May 2014 23:52

Vamsee wrote:Guys,
NDA at 250 means Modi will be PM. No question of any UPA-3. There will be around 10-15 "independents" who are available to any party. and either DMK or ADMK will take them above 272.

None of these things will likely be needed though. NDA has already got about 250 from Phases 1-7. The main question at this point is how much majority they will have based upon results of Phases 8 and 9.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 23:54

SRoy wrote:Those that are saying 250 means Modi govt.
And who'll bring in the other 22?
At the best it will be a ABV v2.0, even if Modi manages to stay put.
Get real.

c'mon dude, u get real. 22 is a joke they can manage anyday, INLD, TRS, JMM, JVM, DMK, breaking smaller parties, options galore. In 6 months u will many MP's from these parties breaking away and merging with BJP. Even RJD can be broken.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 23:55

ramana wrote:Muraliravi, Need to ask you only.

What will be teh numbers for all regional satraps:

Mamata, JJ, Nitish, Mullhayam, Lalu and Commies anyother Congress mukut?

I think not more than 20 each at first cut.

Thats what I also think sir, except Mamata I doubt if anyone will cross 20.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 01 May 2014 23:56

Vamsee wrote:muraliravi,

Can I ask you a question? Are your projections based on leaked exit poll info from CSDS? or is it your own?
You can ignore this question if you want to.

Regards,
V

i am no pollster sir, all my projections are basically just aggregate of information that i collect, just that i usually trust conservative pollsters with some track record.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 01 May 2014 23:57

muraliravi wrote:
SRoy wrote:Those that are saying 250 means Modi govt.
And who'll bring in the other 22?
At the best it will be a ABV v2.0, even if Modi manages to stay put.
Get real.
c'mon dude, u get real. 22 is a joke they can manage anyday, INLD, TRS, JMM, JVM, DMK, breaking smaller parties, options galore. In 6 months u will many MP's from these parties breaking away and merging with BJP. Even RJD can be broken.

They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 01 May 2014 23:59

MW,
dont forget IB and RAW will be under control of whoever is the PM. And Modi is no ABV with Low Purush backstabbing him all the time!

muraliravi thanks for the affirmation. So with each around 20 not much chance of any of them demanding to be PM the others will undercut.
So Congress plan is a non-starter.

durvasa · Post by **durvasa** » 02 May 2014 00:00

SRoy wrote:Congis are already on record saying that all combinations are acceptable to them to keep Modi out.

So, NDA at 250 is a lost cause.

All combinations may be acceptable to Congress, Commies, Lalu, AAP and BSP but not to other regional satraps like BJD, AIDMK, TMC or even NCP who may prefer to be in a more stable NDA than sharing bed with their sworn enemies in bloated UPA.

Anything above 240 for Pre-poll NDA should be enough to make a govt though BJP alone getting 272+, targeted by NaMo, would be a dream come true. In any case BJP should aim to make govt, if they are the biggest party, by whatever means. Time to be nice to traitors has long gone.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 02 May 2014 00:00

Mort Walker wrote: They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.

Kuch nahi hoga, they will be forced to resign and merge into BJP and fight by-elections. After that they cant resign.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 May 2014 00:01

While sp and bsp can and have supported congis from outside together i find it hard to imagine them being part of turd front govt with congi support.
same fr dmk and admk in same room.imagine jj as pm and stalin reporting to her in cabinet.

congis are appealing to ego and promising each warlord a six month reign as pm.
problem is all warlords will want a longer reign

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 00:02

muraliravi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.
Kuch nahi hoga, they will be forced to resign and merge into BJP and fight by-elections. After that they cant resign.

I hope your are correct. I pray that after Phase 7 the NDA 240-250.

SRoy · Post by **SRoy** » 02 May 2014 00:02

Mort Walker wrote:
muraliravi wrote: c'mon dude, u get real. 22 is a joke they can manage anyday, INLD, TRS, JMM, JVM, DMK, breaking smaller parties, options galore. In 6 months u will many MP's from these parties breaking away and merging with BJP. Even RJD can be broken.
They'll flip. The estimate in 2014 this time is 15 crore per seat. The problem is will the government be stable? My guess is no as there will be gulf and EJ monies to flip votes out. With NDA 250, the govt. will last 2-3 years.

Exactly.
And once that happens NaMo and team will come out discredited, having formed a govt. solely for power when they didn't even had a mandate.

However all that is speculation. By my back of the envelope calculation, I think they already past 235-245 mark as of now and remaining 2 phases will land them around 275 or 280.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 02 May 2014 00:03

Mortullah ji - 15 crore is nothing, Shibu Soren himself got close to 1cr to save PVNR govt

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 May 2014 00:04

Dhoti shiver has reached sentient levels here. Take a break from brf folks.
come back refreshed on may7.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 00:09

I recall when JJ pulled out of the NDA in 1999 at the onset of Kargil. It may have been in the back of the mind of ABVP, LKA, & GF not to escalate the matter and not cross the LoC under any circumstance since they were a care taker govt. Had the IA, IAF & IN crossed over, the scum would have been finished for good and even the US would have been without a 9/11. My point is a stable govt. in India is essential to international security and prosperity. A weak or perceived weak govt. will create long term consequences.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 00:10

suryag wrote:Mortullah ji - 15 crore is nothing, Shibu Soren himself got close to 1cr to save PVNR govt

That was early to mid-1990s. Today 15 crore is probably the starting point!

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 02 May 2014 00:12

Singha wrote:Dhoti shiver has reached sentient levels here. Take a break from brf folks.
come back refreshed on may7.

You can ensure that by posting more frequently on your dhaaga.

Just noticed your new entry. Was saving it for later ( as in when I'm feeling drowsy at work. Looks like now is as good a time as any

)

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 02 May 2014 00:16

A mix-n-mash is generally a non-starter because every local satrap wants to be in control and will immediately destabilize after having their fill. But, the equations are different this time. After, what they have gone through(i.e. each local satrap was threatened by NaMo wave in their fort), no satrap will want to take chances and give chance to NaMo. So, if NDA does not get ~272 on own, then I don't think other satraps would be willing to bail out NaMo for long. But, there is another issue here, if NaMo can get on to the throne somehow, then he controls the leash. That means, all those who are afraid of See Bee Eye hounds will dance to NaMo's tunes. It also means all those who are afraid of those hounds will not want NaMo to control the leash. So, very less likely that any satrap out of NDA will support NaMo.
The few that come to mind who may support NaMo are:
Amma, Dhidhi, Maya and Biju.

Amma, Dhidhi and Maya face a huge risk if they allow NaMo to settle down because he is threatening to spoil their local equations by taking away their vote banks. So, Biju maybe the only one who might not lose much by supporting NaMo.

Gajan and KCR will support anyone who controls the leash.

Anyway, I think NaMo is getting minimum 230 on own which means NDA will get 272. But, then, world is a Maayaa, anything is possible...

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 02 May 2014 00:19

This is why Harry Trueman said "God give me a one handed expert!"

Its the other hand that kills you while you wait!!!

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 00:20

We'll see all the exit polls after 12 May and I'll pay attention to the CSDS polls and 5forty3.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 00:25

ramana wrote:MW,
dont forget IB and RAW will be under control of whoever is the PM. And Modi is no ABV with Low Purush backstabbing him all the time!

muraliravi thanks for the affirmation. So with each around 20 not much chance of any of them demanding to be PM the others will undercut.
So Congress plan is a non-starter.

Ramana saar is right. Once on the kursi Modi will have access to all the dirt accumulated over a period of 20-30 years in RAW/IB/CBI/CVC/IT/ED/and many such small narrow and dark corners of the government machinery. And Modi being the kind of administrator that he is. No amount of money will be able to counter this kind of treasure trove!

If BJP crosses 200 on its own rest all can be arraigned and that formation will have Modi at the center give it whatever name you like.

Added later: Saw johneeG saar post later and tend to agree with him that the problem is getting to the kursi and the dynamics involved. I am however optimistic about his chances for a couple of reasons. Whoever forms the gov in Andra and Telengana will most likely deploy their party MPs in support of the single largest party or formation. INLD will support BJP and NCP is opportunistic. Independents will most likely go along with the largest formation unless they have a large sickular base or are committed sickulars. NDA at 250 will put them across easily just based on these dynamics.

The other dynamics that will work for Modi is that if one of the regionals break for Modi the rest are screwed! Modi will not need the others and the first one to jump on the bandwagon will enjoy all the advantages of being an insider. The only thing that will prevent this is if the regionals trust each other completely not to open secret negotiations with Modi. At the first hint of a secret deal in works will prompt most to seek their own deal except for the most committed sickulars like the RJD. That is where motivated leaks via the media can play havoc with the opposition unity.

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 02 May 2014 00:59

[Semi OT]
This thread is awesome for many reasons. Any one interested in psychology, should visit this forum.

BRF ( at least this thread ) is becoming an echo chamber. But there are differences.

The general mood can be gauged by the posts ( frequency, content and posters ). I have formed a picture in my mind of the nature, as in tendencies, of various posters.
1) Some of them are very conservative in life.
2) Some get easily discouraged.
3) Some jump to conclusions.
4) Some are stubborn.
5) Some are disingenious.

6) Some of them, quite often, pull a fast one and assume that they have fooled everyone.

7) Some of them genuine and passionate beliefs regardless of whether they are right or wrong.

Note: Some are a mix of all the above.

If some of the posters were into active stock picking/investing, I could almost guess their portfolio mix. Very fascinating stuff. This is an emotionally driven thread. But folks are attempting to make intellectual arguments. Which is a good thing. People from different backgrounds, regions, levels of education, experiences in life have contributed to this thread. Makes for some great analysis in itself.

So some of us will dhothi shiver, some of us will be optimistic, some of us will be or attempt to be nonchalant about. To each, his/her own.

Just remember, for most of us, life will not change much ( I'm talking about our immediate future not our collective one in the distant future ).

For me this is the fun part. The anticipation, the thrill of the chase, if you will. I actually enjoy Friday nights more than the weekend ( generally speaking ). At this time, I'm actually happy. I do not know the future. I might end up being disappointed. But why should start worrying about it now. Why this anticipatory worry?

Just my thoughts and all that.
[/Semi OT]

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 02 May 2014 00:59

Duplicate post.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 May 2014 01:08

Murali Ravi garu,

Can you pls give your optimistic estimates for these parties?

Communist Party of India (Marxist)
Communist Party of India
Revolutionary Socialist Party
All India Forward Bloc
Bahujan Samaj Party
Biju Janata Dal
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
Janata Dal (Secular)
Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
Haryana Janhit Congress
Pattali Makkal Katchi
Samajwadi Party
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam
All India Trinamool Congress
Nationalist Congress Party
Rashtriya Janata Dal
YSR Congress Party
Telangana Rashtra Samiti

thx in advance

Sanjay · Post by **Sanjay** » 02 May 2014 01:18

muraliravi, if I haven't said it before - thanks for everything you've done.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 01:20

I see a worst situation as a repeat of 1996 and we'll see the Congress destabilize the government in a couple of years. There is no way a UPA-3 will ever be formed in 2014.

Mort Walker · Post by **Mort Walker** » 02 May 2014 01:20

Sanjay wrote:muraliravi, if I haven't said it before - thanks for everything you've done.

+1

chaitanya · Post by **chaitanya** » 02 May 2014 01:20

Sorry, slightly OT, but what is Low Purush?

shyamoo · Post by **shyamoo** » 02 May 2014 01:22

chaitanya wrote:Sorry, slightly OT, but what is Low Purush?

Low Purush aka Loh Purush aka LOL Purush aka LKA

chaitanya · Post by **chaitanya** » 02 May 2014 01:24

lol thanks