Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 08:28

NaMo will lose onlee.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 02 May 2014 08:28

sivab wrote:
Anantha wrote:
SwamyG
Who owns nakeeran, It gives the fewest seats to BJP
Nakeeran is pro-DMK

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R._Gopal

Look at them giving DMK+ 21 seats. That would cause such takleef to Amma. So even Nakeeran is forced to give the minimum of 2 seats to BJP+. Expect 5 for Modi+. If the casteist and cine leaders cannot pull their seats and get 3 for Modi, then there is no use in having these parties.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 08:37

‘Modi vs. all’ shows up insecurities of rival camp: Amit Shah
Calm and always in control but ruthless when he has to. I like this guy.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 02 May 2014 08:39

^^^^
BJP in WB can expect 15% vote, but that may not translate into a good number of seats. One looks for sure - Darjeeling seat. Another 3 is a good possibility. Even if BJP doesn't win those 3, it'll come close second. Anything more than the above 4 will make me break into Lungi Dance at Esplanade East of Kolkata.

sum · Post by **sum** » 02 May 2014 08:45

Wasnt this seat going to INC or a tight fight, as per few BRF election watchers?
In Gujarat, Cong nominee gives up even before counting

Party nominee from Jamnagar Lok Sabha constituency Vikram Madam came out in the open during the day to announce that he would lose the election to his niece and BJP nominee Poonam Madam by a margin of some 30, 000 votes. Addressing the media during the day, he asked his supporters not bet on poll results. The counting of votes is scheduled for May 16.

Vikram Madam is a prominent Ahir community leader and the party leadership was betting on his victory. The BJP had, however, made it difficult for him by engineering the defection of his niece Poonam, a sitting Congress legislator, then, ahead of 2012 state Assembly elections.

Sources claim that Poonam’s chances of trouncing her rivals was very strong since she enjoyed the backing of a Jamnagar-based corporate honcho of a leading company of the country.

Vikram Madam told reporters that he was a pragmatic person who did not run away from the reality.

In Wednesday’s polling state wide, the Jamnagar constituency had recorded a polling of 57.42 per cent, almost 5 per cent below the 62 per cent polling recorded in the state. The party had considered the Jamnagar constituency in the Saurashtra region of the state as one of the ‘safer’ seats for the Congress.

Frederic · Post by **Frederic** » 02 May 2014 08:51

Guys, I see that the tension levels are running quite high and understandably so.

Here are some data points to mull over:

*It is defacto admission from the Congoons that the line is about to be breached and thus they are sending the last reserves of the heavy cavalry in as a suicidal charge. The hyperventilation of Priyanka Vadra can only been as such. The Congoons have been keeping PV as a final weapon. That she is being unleashed with abandon only spells that the doom is near.

*Two or three "fires" so conveniently in strategic offices in a week! Come on. The mafiosi are firing up their escape pods.

*Amit Shah is certainly not one who runs off his mouth when it comes to electoral matters. Hell, he has probably forgotten more about booth level politics than all your Diggy Rajas and Mani Shankar Aiyyars would learn in seven lifetimes. Granted, some of AS's bravado can be seen as pure maskirovska to demoralize the Orc hordes and rally the battalions of elite Elven archers but still there must be some substance behind all his posturing?

*Lastly, if you need any further proof, watch carefully NaMo's last 4 or 5 interviews. His body language has undergone a sea change. It is the Aslan the noble creature baring his fangs finally, casting aside any and all hopes of mercy for the fell creatures. He must have some ground level info if he feels this confident! Think about it.

Chillax guys. Don't get upended by every two bit random pimp from the tweeples or rUNdiTV.

Dharma will prevail.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 02 May 2014 08:58

Fredric +1,
I am pretty confident as I follow (not play) Satta bazaar. The odds of BJP (not NDA) winning 240 seats is same as Congis winning 80 seats. The Satta bazaar has to shell out real money, they are fairly accurate. The lowest number for BJP now is 210.
Chill guys. It will be Modi govt with the worst case being some support from Amma/Mamta.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 02 May 2014 09:06

I am looking at the worst case scenerio here. I need some help
NDA 240 seats
Congis 120 seats + allies xx seats Total = ?
For Rest of the crowd List the parties and the total
Who from the rest of the crowd will say absolute no to congis.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 09:13

Let me think about this. Rahul Gandhi was exposed as a joker and even INC had to acccept that he is a failure in this election. Sonia's health is failing and she needs someone to pick up the reins from her. Given such a situation next option to fall back on is obviously Priyanka. Considering the fact that this election is all but lost will they field Priyanka in a losing cause? It would have been ideal if she can come back as a fresh face of INC in 2019. If she is being fielded this late then it could mean two things.
1) They are going soosai with all guns blazing in alast ditch effort.
2) INC feels there is still something at stake which can pull out the chest from fire for them.

I personally feel it is neither of these. Priyanka is not going full throttle and is just campaigning for SG in some safe seats. She is being grromed for 2019. This is a test to see how much she is effective. They didn't do that with pappu and have learned from it.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 02 May 2014 09:16

Muraliravi garu,

Communist Party of India (Marxist) - 15
Communist Party of India - 5
Bahujan Samaj Party - 10
Biju Janata Dal - 15
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - 20
Janata Dal (Secular) - 2
Samajwadi Party - 10
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - 10
All India Trinamool Congress - 25
Nationalist Congress Party - 10
Rashtriya Janata Dal - 5
YSR Congress Party - 10
Telangana Rashtra Samiti - 5
Others = 8
Total = 150

Congress+ = 100

NDA = 290+

Where did I go wrong???

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 02 May 2014 09:18

TonySoprano wrote:
muraliravi wrote: Oh no sir, if they get 6/9 in the west bengal seats that went to polls, EVM magic is for sure, just that this time around it is BJP that is creating the magic
Lol i think you were joking but in case you were not, how does BJP have any control in that leftist-jihadi den?

none at all.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 02 May 2014 09:34

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 02 May 2014 09:34

Anantha wrote:I am looking at the worst case scenerio here. I need some help
NDA 240 seats
Congis 120 seats + allies xx seats Total = ?
For Rest of the crowd List the parties and the total
Who from the rest of the crowd will say absolute no to congis.

That is the beauty of it all nobody who does not want to has to.

J&K, Orrisa, WB, TN are all states where the regional satrap would rather cooperate with whoever is in the power. Low risk low reward strategy but then that is what they need for some time to come. Mamta-Congress competition has been much sharper than Mamta-NaMo one. So she will easily see reason. All she needs is to sell her paintings in peace and have the Railway ministry for herself. My bet actually is on Amma filling up the role of the post poll ally. Naveen Patnaik could be second best, I guess. Mamta di coming in close third. Third will not be needed at all, is something I have high confidence on. J&K satrap may have to be taken in for cosmetic and military intel reasons only.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 02 May 2014 09:36

saumitra_j wrote:
TonySoprano wrote: Exactly, niran lost all credibility in my eyes after saying such results for WB.
A Humble request onlee: If you do not believe someone (and you will have valid reasons for it!) please ignore. Request you to avoid raising other's credibility issues et al publicly. Unlike some of us internet experts who only discuss on forums and spend most of the time either whining or in intellectual ma****bation, Niran ji is actually doing the hard work on the ground, campaigning and what not for the nation. So when ever he gives info, it comes based on his ground level information which he is so kindly sharing with us. Ignore it if you want but the public dissing of credibility is not fair. JMT and all that.

+1 onlee. Big thanks to Niran ji for his service and may his tribe increase. Going by my experience during the past few weeks in far away Guwahati, his observations have a ring of solid credibility although I will admit that I am stunned. I have seen a tidal wave like this once before, during the post Assam agitation elections in '84-'85. Then it was pure emotion but this time there is something else. The closest I can describe it is a mixture of revulsion and raw hatred of congis and relief, hope and pride inspired by NaMo (not BJP).

Niran's credibility or lack thereof to someone who wants India to be more like those bastions of religious tolerance, Buddhist Myanmar and Sri Lanka, is as important as a fart in a toofan IMHO. As has been firmly and repeatedly underlined by NaMo and amply demonstrated by thousands of years of history, true religious tolerance has been defined and demonstrated only by Hindus and has yet to be approached, let alone emulated, by any other faith.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 02 May 2014 09:54

ravi_g
great. Only by joining the NDA mamta/jaya can slow down BJP/Modi from encroaching in their territory. I see Jaya as the 1st one seeing reason and jumping to NDA (of course see needs some SOPS). The good thing is there are no major scams against her.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 02 May 2014 09:59

Agreed that BJP is nobody in WB. No chance at all which is why TMC is so smug and dismissive of BJP these days. Sample this for smugness and dismissiveness only:

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 02 May 2014 10:09

^Lamb threatening the Lion, how pathetic can you be. Most likely he will be pi$$ing his pants on May 16th, as he would likely be accompanying his Bangladeshi peaceful brethren.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 02 May 2014 10:10

Amit Shah's interview seems to point to that, especially with ADMK. All this vitriol seems to be a planned attack on each other, only to come together later after maximising electoral chances. I don't see how JJ will not support an NDA govt (and claim her pound of flesh) if she wins the majority of seats in the state.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 02 May 2014 10:12

http://www.rediff.com/news/interview/ls ... 140502.htm

Is Narendra Modi an option for Muslims? Should they accept him as their leader?

You see there are many views on this issue. Some say he should be pardoned and some say no, he should never be forgiven. Some say Muslims' hearts are very big and therefore he should be forgiven. However, we should know what Islamic law says about this issue.

If someone slaps me, then it is only me who has the right to forgive that person and not you. So it is Gujarati Muslims who have the right to pardon him and not anyone else. No other maulana in the world has the right to speak on this issue.

Islam says the person who has been hurt or aggrieved has the right to pardon the accused. So don't ask me on whether I will pardon Narendra Modi or not. Go and ask this question to Gujarati Muslims who have been hurt.

If they don't forgive him (for the 2002 riots), then it is their right and if they forgive him then, that too is their own right.

I am nobody to pardon Modi on the 2002 riots.

Do you think the day Narendra Modi becomes prime minister secularism will be dead in India forever?

It is not possible. The secular character of India can never be finished. India is secular by its nature.

Whoever comes to power, he will have to become secular to rule.

Let me remind you that Vajpayeeji was very much against Pakistan before he became prime minister. Our country had the best relations with Pakistan during his tenure.

People say something when they are in the Opposition and do something else when they are in power.

If the people of India have decided Narendra Modi will become the next prime minister, then what can you do? You cannot throw him out of his chair. You cannot do anything.

One should never have so much enmity with anyone that there is no possibility of reconciliation.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 10:40

Amar Govindarajan ‏@amargov 3h

Tiruppur, garments manufacturing hub of Tamil Nadu, to face 4 hours load shedding daily. Go ahead and sing kumbayas to the Tamil Nadu model.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 11:02

UP Bhumihars resent Ansari-Ajay Rai pact

http://www.hindustantimes.com/elections ... 14508.aspx

The Bhumihars have expressed resentment over the poll pact between their community leader Ajay Rai and Mukhtar Ansari for the Varanasi parliamentary constituency. The police, on the other hand, expect their “friendship” with a common agenda — preventing BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi from winning — to impact the crime scenario in Poorvanchal or eastern Uttar Pradesh.

...
“The anger of the Bhumihars might prove costly for Rai,” said Uday Tripathi, a political analyst. Others like RK Mishra, a retired teacher in Varanasi, said the Ansari-Rai deal could lead to a division of Muslim votes and make things easy for Modi.

...
The Rai-Ansari understanding, meanwhile, has punctured the confidence of Aam Aadmi Party vis-à-vis some 300,000 Muslim votes in Varanasi. Party contestant and convener Arvind Kejriwal was upbeat after Ansari withdrew his candidature.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 11:06

AAP Struggles to Connect with Varanasi Voters

http://www.newindianexpress.com/electio ... 201230.ece

Already facing criticism of being an outsider, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) candidate Arvind Kejriwal is finding it hard to rake up issues that connect locals with his party’s campaign, which has largely been focused on the core issue of corruption and corporate-political nexus.

...
Though Kejriwal’s communal vs secular debate is resonating among a sizeable Muslim population in the city, his attempt to make crony capitalism the main poll issue is not raising many an eyebrow in the city which is yet to taste the fruit of development politics.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 02 May 2014 11:07

KLP Dubey wrote:Looks like it is back to the cowshed for Lalu. Life comes full cycle. I am slightly disappointed that he wasn't allowed to contest the election and be the single RJD MP. Every darbar needs a vidushak, and Lalu fits the bill par excellence.

Was talking to some Bihar people working in my office. After talking to people back home, they say Muslim-Yadav combine voted heavily for Laloo. Yadavs are again back to their khujli of considering themselves as Yadavs first and Hindus second.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 11:10

maitas66 ‏@chinmaykrvd 4h

There is Lalu wave in Bihar but his daughter lost in Pataliputra and wife trailing in Saran.Super

Lalu's MY magic worked for other RJD candidates except for his wife and his daughter? How interesting!

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 02 May 2014 11:10

pankajs wrote:UP Bhumihars resent Ansari-Ajay Rai pact

http://www.hindustantimes.com/elections ... 14508.aspx
The Bhumihars have expressed resentment over the poll pact between their community leader Ajay Rai and Mukhtar Ansari for the Varanasi parliamentary constituency. The police, on the other hand, expect their “friendship” with a common agenda — preventing BJP’s prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi from winning — to impact the crime scenario in Poorvanchal or eastern Uttar Pradesh.

...
“The anger of the Bhumihars might prove costly for Rai,” said Uday Tripathi, a political analyst. Others like RK Mishra, a retired teacher in Varanasi, said the Ansari-Rai deal could lead to a division of Muslim votes and make things easy for Modi.

...
The Rai-Ansari understanding, meanwhile, has punctured the confidence of Aam Aadmi Party vis-à-vis some 300,000 Muslim votes in Varanasi. Party contestant and convener Arvind Kejriwal was upbeat after Ansari withdrew his candidature.

That's why Ajai rai didn't show any feelings when Ansari declared his support. He will be declared "Kujaat" (out of caste) if he mingles with Ansari.

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 02 May 2014 11:12

SanjayC wrote:
KLP Dubey wrote:Looks like it is back to the cowshed for Lalu. Life comes full cycle. I am slightly disappointed that he wasn't allowed to contest the election and be the single RJD MP. Every darbar needs a vidushak, and Lalu fits the bill par excellence.
Was talking to some Bihar people working in my office. After talking to people back home, they say Muslim-Yadav combine voted heavily for Laloo. Yadavs are again back to their khujli of considering themselves as Yadavs first and Hindus second.

Event schedule of Modi doesn't show any panic. No events in Bihar before May 7 polls.
http://www.india272.com/events/month/

Luit · Post by **Luit** » 02 May 2014 11:30

cdbatra wrote:
muraliravi wrote:I am going to post here how congress can get 130 so that EVM rigging theory lovers can take a moment to seriously introspect and actually understand how difficult it is push a monster called congress below 100 seats.

JK -2 (Anyone with a neutral understanding of the 2 seats in Jammu will testify to you that BJP and Cong are neck and neck here, so cong winning 2 seats needs absolutely no EVM magic)

Himachal -2 (History is witness to the fact that this is one state which has loyally alternated between BJP and cong election after election. 98 and 99 had same results, but that was becos it was considered just a repeat election, BJP won 3-1 last time, theoretically cong can win 3-1 this time, but lets say 2. Dont tell me Namo wave is special here, there have been waves before and HP still alternated)

Punjab - 6 (Enough has been discussed about Punjab here)

Haryana - 4 (2-3 is sure, but they can pull off 1-2 more close seats)

Delhi - 1

Uttar Pradesh - 8

Bihar - 4 (refer to Nagesh ji's post on congress seats in Bihar)

Jharkhand - 1

Assam - 9 (BJP can be easily stopped at 3, AGP 0, AUDF 2, rest 9 to INC)

West Bengal -5

Arunachal -2 (both are close fights and Cong can pull both off),

Mizoram, Meghalaya and Manipur (5)

Orissa - 7 (I believe that BJP will not win more than 1 seat, all their wave will split BJD vote and the loyal congress voters will help cong gain. I am not the first and only one to say this, IBTL has said the same thing and was confirmed in their survey)

TG/AP - 8

Kerala - 14 (Thanks to BJP for splitting the hindu vote royally)

Karnataka - 18 (Refer to 5forty3 prepoll he gave bjp 12 and cong 14, but put a caveat saying 9 is min for bjp and 18 is max for cong, and csds march survey, 18 is the max, but again i am telling u guys how cong can get 130)

MH - 13 (the most controversial state for cong performance, but lets stick to numbers here. Today IBNlive had a good discussion with a csds member on voting % and he had a slip of a tongue and mentioned that they were seeing do diff in their march prepoll numbers and the exit poll data they have collected in all states except a few seats in bihar where they see MY consolidation denting NDA a bit; this is exactly the feedback i have from MH instead of all the sweep we hear. Atri ji can correct if i am wrong, but he also repeatedly warns us that NDA wont cross 30 in MH. Csds Mar gave NDA 24-30 and UPA 16-22. So they can get 20, easily inc can pull of 13 and NCP 7)

Goa, Andaman, Lakshadweep and Chandigarh - 4 (Cong will win Chandigarh with gul panag destroying kiron kher's chances, Andaman swings usually and i doubt if there is any tsunamo there, there maybe a tsunami)

Rajasthan - 5 (100% sure that 5 seats will go to cong, thanks to maharani and her ego)

Gujarat - 4

Madhya Pradesh - 4 (Chindwara, Guna, Rajgarh and the seat with Bhuria and I guess even 543 was giving 3-4 seats to cong there)

Chhattisgarh - 3 (this is a minimal number, the assembly to LS conversion actually gives cong 5 seats, i wont be surprised if that happens)

Uttarakhand - 1

Thats 130 for cong. I maybe wrong in some states, but i guess the effect should cancel out, and remember i am saying max of cong. but its possible and needs no magic.
Hold it bro I think you are stressed out! No way Rjasthan is going to bring back Congi same from Chandigarh am from Chandigarh can vouch for it.

His Assam figures are wrong too.

member_22539 · Post by **member_22539** » 02 May 2014 11:30

^I am sad and surprised that this thread has devolved to the level of gossiping grandmas. Any odd rumor (almost always negative) is blown up beyond proportion and then there is the obligatory dhoti shivering and whinefest.

Lalu's wife and daughter is getting their electoral a$$es kicked, yet we have people casting yadavs as being unfaithful to the Hindu cause. Please people, wait a second and think before you go into hysterics.

niran · Post by **niran** » 02 May 2014 11:42

pankajs wrote:UP Bhumihars resent Ansari-Ajay Rai pact

...
The Rai-Ansari understanding, meanwhile, has punctured the confidence of Aam Aadmi Party vis-à-vis some 300,000 Muslim votes in Varanasi. Party contestant and convener Arvind Kejriwal was upbeat after Ansari withdrew his candidature.

[/quote]
correction onree
Muslims voters registered to vote in Varanasi for 2014 election is 197035 voters onree that is not even 2 lacs voters then how in the name of ATM will 3 lacs voters vote?
for better perpective
kurmi (those Apna dal)= 220000 round figure
Rajput(or shall we say Thakurs) 1 lac plus
Brahmin arounf 1 lac 80 thousand
Rai (on which ye all have been shivering) mere 38 thousand Yeah! it is thousand not Lacs

tell me why should sensible wise learned folks at BRF lose even a wink of sleep ? hainji?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 11:48

@ShanyaSing: Why don't all parties unite & form one party named "Anti-Modi Party" as their target is Modi-Roko & nothing else. Why to fool public?

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 02 May 2014 11:49

gandharva ji, this says otherwise
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 398387.cms

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 02 May 2014 11:56

Namo is scheduled to be in varanasi only between May7 to May12. so I guess he wont hold rallies anywhere those 5 days and just take some well earned rest, hold small meetings locally etc.

but Khujli baba for lack of any traction had to take that as a "weakness" and taunt Namo that he was worried about varanasi...

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 11:58

Khujli is a phucking idiot when it comes to things like that saar. Ignore him as much as you can for your own peace of mind.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 12:02

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 02 May 2014 12:17

^ should be 'Indians missing both from Voters list and list of Rulers'

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 02 May 2014 12:30

News Traders still doing their bit for CON system.

Livemint ‏@livemint 3h

Sushma Swaraj’s silence on Narendra Modi hints at mutiny risk in BJP http://mintne.ws/R64Uvc

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 2h

#CoalGate case is being closed at a speed faster than that of what light travels at . Why is @AamAadmiParty silent . Soft corner for Jindal?

See how a major financier of the CON/AAP dirty trick department is being shielded.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 13:21

Is there any other site like 5forty3 where I can have a dekho at the predictions?

subhamoy.das · Post by **subhamoy.das** » 02 May 2014 13:35

The number of votes casted this GE is at all time high. Why are people casting votes in such high number? The simple reason is either they want to see a change of guard or retain the old guard of the economy. Now what are the chances that they want to retain the old guard? And what are the chances that they will choose a new guard which will be controlled by the elements of the old guard from behind? I would predict, that SP, BSP and RJD, who are confirmed part of old guard, will not eased out for sure. Rest, will be part of the new guard

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 13:37

Who will be the new FM in case Modi comes to power?

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 02 May 2014 13:43

Dear Priyanka, your Dad was no angel. He let India down

But the record will show that Rajiv Gandhi was not a great Prime Minister by any yardstick. He had his high points and his low points. He did try hard in some ways, but history will judge him not as a man who left behind a great legacy, but as someone who squandered the greatest opportunity India provided to any Prime Minister in living memory to take the country to new heights. He left the country in chaos and in self-doubt, and the economy in the dust. Almost exactly as his widow is going to leave it. Now that Priyanka has brought up his martyrdom, it is worth saying that his death at the hands of an LTTE suicide bomber in Tamil Nadu brought the Congress back to power in 1991 under Narasimha Rao. Rao and Manmohan Singh undid the economic damage left behind by Rajiv Gandhi and his successor, VP Singh.