Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 02 May 2014 13:45

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 3h

1. All these parties ie Congress , JDU , RJD , @AamAadmiParty etc etc fighting hard to get share out of 15% Muslim votes.
Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 3h

2. Just proves that 15% of 'those' votes are united and means more than a divided into many Hindu votes. Long live the tradition of Hindus.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yogi_G » 02 May 2014 14:14

The Muzaffarnagar riots were a big opener for me. The myth of Muslims as a single focused group capable of a level of violence much higher than the Hindus who are split into smaller groups has been shattered. The Jats showed what Hindus are capable of when they are made to wake up.

We may still not write off Hindu ability to unite against the outsider. Yesterday night was a pleasant feast when the Surjewala chap, one member from the p-sec media and Sri. Seshadri Chari teamed up to beat the living djinn out of 2 Paki chaps, one being a jernail and the other being a bald Paki copy of the admiral in the opening scene of top gun movie. What fun it was! The Pakis were surprised and retorted to their usual trick of pointing out China as a counter example when pointed out the beauty of our system. The non-Jernail chap said that China's democracy is larger than India's :D.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 02 May 2014 14:47

How despite TDP, Modi may be keeping door open for Jagan

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-d ... 05591.html

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 02 May 2014 14:59

Tavleen Singh ‏@tavleen_singh 2h

Indresh Kumar on CNN-IBN just lost Modi some votes by talking like a narrow-minded tyrant. The RSS needs to stay away from TV

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_21074 » 02 May 2014 15:27

Last edited by member_21074 on 02 May 2014 15:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby sum » 02 May 2014 15:27

^^ Come on...does MSM really influence anyone so much that any interview can cause results to change? Am seeing this same line on any utterance by any BJP leader

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby rohitv » 02 May 2014 15:29

pankajs wrote:
Tavleen Singh ‏@tavleen_singh 2h

Indresh Kumar on CNN-IBN just lost Modi some votes by talking like a narrow-minded tyrant. The RSS needs to stay away from TV


As per the CNN-IBN website he didnt say anything that could "derail" Modi campaign. He even castgated Togadia :D
In any case who watches CNN-IBN at 1 PM in the afternoon :D

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/rss-compares ... 054-3.html

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sagrawal » 02 May 2014 15:47

anisham wrote:Exit/opinion poll of Satta market: sure BJP seats:
They give 247 to BJP alone



Going rate for Hema Malini win in local Mathura satta market is 10 paise and 4-5 INR for Jayant.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby sum » 02 May 2014 15:48

If there was a psy-ops video clip, this should be it:


Let me know what inference you drew :D

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 16:02

RamaY wrote:Muraliravi garu,

Communist Party of India (Marxist) - 15
Communist Party of India - 5
Bahujan Samaj Party - 10
Biju Janata Dal - 15
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - 20
Janata Dal (Secular) - 2
Samajwadi Party - 10
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam - 10
All India Trinamool Congress - 25
Nationalist Congress Party - 10
Rashtriya Janata Dal - 5
YSR Congress Party - 10
Telangana Rashtra Samiti - 5
Others = 8
Total = 150

Congress+ = 100

NDA = 290+

Where did I go wrong???


Cong+ at 100 is very wishful, they will easily hit 140

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 16:05

Dilbu wrote:@ShanyaSing: Why don't all parties unite & form one party named "Anti-Modi Party" as their target is Modi-Roko & nothing else. Why to fool public?


If they do that they know modi will win hands down

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby member_28352 » 02 May 2014 16:07

MRji, I think I asked this before also. What are your expectations for the third front? If we take RamaY's figures for TF in addition to your 140 figure for INC that means INC plus TF is easily 290 seats which means a Mamata/Jaya/Maya lead govt aka UPA3. Right?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby sum » 02 May 2014 16:11

SaPa's tryst with technology:
As for the Samajwadi Party, which has nominated a Brahmin to take on Narendra Modi, it sent 300 "tablets" to aid its workers to spread the word on the Akhilesh Yadav government's welfare schemes and how they have benefited the people of UP.

The exercise flopped, says a member of the party's youth wing, which in Varanasi is lead by one Raju Yadav. "You flip open the tablet and a film on welfare schemes of the government starts playing. The problem is the film is too long, 18 minutes and you cannot reverse or forward it. In the beginning it held interest but not for long," says the disgruntled youth wing member.

:rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 02 May 2014 16:25

Just yesterday I have told my friend about what mafia and its b teams have done -
They brought a knife to a gun fight.

Tablet story is the typical example. As per Satta - Dimple yadav is going lose only.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 02 May 2014 16:45

muraliravi, after the ups downs, sideways and diagonals of the last few days, what's your view - conservatively - of the probable BJP total ?

No need for detailed breakdown.

Thanks again.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Arunkumar » 02 May 2014 17:12

Sanjay ji please dont take any offence but this conservative estimate generates a circular thread discussion like Arjun vs T90 thread and takes the fun off checking for new developments. As a thumb rule bjp cant possibly go below 2009 tally.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Patni » 02 May 2014 17:13

IMHO the whole thing is going to come down to BJP on its own geting 220 +/- 20 seats. CON party on its own 100 +/- 10 seats, As a single largest party President is expected to invite BJP to form goverment, but in past CON party has played games on this and largest coaliation that can form stable government should be given first chance voices will scream at us 24/7. M/s NaMo & AmSh being wise to this have ensured having a HUGE pre-poll alliance for NDA. The NDA may come up to 220 + 50 = 270 +/- 27. UPA maybe at 130 and So called 3RD front etc at 142. IMHO there is a 10% chance of NDA falling short of about 10 seats and reach 262 where as UPA + 3rdfront at 280! but since Didi cant go with comrades and BSP cant go with SP at this moment in time so it will end up that President will invite BJP lead NDA to have a first shot at making goverment and I have full faith in M/s NaMo & AmSh to have already worked out 20 most likely to be pulled into NDA orbit and have a stable goverment. IMHO there is 80% chance of Modi sarkar with NDA+ at 270 and 10% chance that NDA+ reach only at 260 but we will still get a Modi Sarkar! as of today i see < 10% chance of any one else other then modi being next PM. I am hoping that after next round we will be able to reach 270 for NDA as lowest mark number from current 260.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 17:28

ShankarCag wrote:MRji, I think I asked this before also. What are your expectations for the third front? If we take RamaY's figures for TF in addition to your 140 figure for INC that means INC plus TF is easily 290 seats which means a Mamata/Jaya/Maya lead govt aka UPA3. Right?


Shankar ji, RamaY ji, and Sanjay ji,

My final tally for BJP is 185-190
Existing NDA allies 40-45

So NDA+ 225 to 235

INC 115-120
Current INC allies (RJD, NCP, IUML & JMM) approx 30 seats

So UPA in its current form is 145-150 seats

Non-Aligned or 3rd front (king makers)

Left 19
SP 18
ADMK 20
JVM 2
Jagan 12
JDU 2
JDS 2
BJD 14
BSP 15
DMK 13
TRS 7
TMC 24
Ajay Kumar (Jamshedpur) 1
NC 2
PDP 2
AAP 3
AUDF 3
MIM 1

Total 160

Actually all these 3rd front guys are so bad that they can bury all their internal differences to stop Modi except Jaya and DMK being part of the same govt.

Left and Mamta, SP and BSP have all been part of the same govt in the past. So if you remove Jaya from the list, it is 140 for the 3rd front parties. With the support of cong they can form govt. At that stage only one person can effectively stop 3rd front from happening and that is Naveen patnaik, if he pulls out, then it is curtains for UPA3 or 3rd front supported by cong.

In fact, NDA can form govt only if they can deal with naveen babu and jaya.

I am not posting anymore numbers, here. Its getting boring. My estimates just dont seem to change much at all. If anything I see some downgrade in NDA numbers though not much. So we'll meet again on May 16.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 17:29

Patni wrote:IMHO the whole thing is going to come down to BJP on its own geting 220 +/- 20 seats. CON party on its own 100 +/- 10 seats, As a single largest party President is expected to invite BJP to form goverment, but in past CON party has played games on this and largest coaliation that can form stable government should be given first chance voices will scream at us 24/7. M/s NaMo & AmSh being wise to this have ensured having a HUGE pre-poll alliance for NDA. The NDA may come up to 220 + 50 = 270 +/- 27. UPA maybe at 130 and So called 3RD front etc at 142. IMHO there is a 10% chance of NDA falling short of about 10 seats and reach 262 where as UPA + 3rdfront at 280! but since Didi cant go with comrades and BSP cant go with SP at this moment in time so it will end up that President will invite BJP lead NDA to have a first shot at making goverment and I have full faith in M/s NaMo & AmSh to have already worked out 20 most likely to be pulled into NDA orbit and have a stable goverment. IMHO there is 80% chance of Modi sarkar with NDA+ at 270 and 10% chance that NDA+ reach only at 260 but we will still get a Modi Sarkar! as of today i see < 10% chance of any one else other then modi being next PM. I am hoping that after next round we will be able to reach 270 for NDA as lowest mark number from current 260.


Sir that is what we all hope, but Mamta, Left, SP and BSP are worse than jaichand. They will all join hand to stop Modi and they have done that in UPA 1 not long ago.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rahul M » 02 May 2014 17:41

left n TMC, DMK & ADMK have not been on same side and won't be.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 17:41

But I will also add this,

For everyone saying No Modi wave if BJP under 200, c'mon guys do some analysis before you throw out heartless statements at a guy who is traveling and conducting rallies in summer heat while doing 10 day Jal Upvaas.

I can say with 200% confidence that if Modi was not declared as PM nominee, BJP would have been around 140 seats. For one you can check csds and other trackers including IBTL (the most pro bjp survey) on what BJP numbers were in surveys around July 2013. Secondly, if not for Modi, AAP would have been able to cut a lot more BJP votes and brought that tally even lower.

So we can surely conclude that Modi has added at least 40-50 seats to BJP's kitty if not more. UP is the best example, any improvement that BJP is getting over its last election tally of 10 is purely on account of Namo and Amit Shah. Otherwise the lalji tandons and kalraj mishras and RNS would have ensured under 10.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 17:42

Rahul M wrote:left n TMC, DMK & ADMK have not been on same side and won't be.


I agree about admk and dmk and I did mention that. But I thought TMC was supporting UPA 1 from outside.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Supratik » 02 May 2014 17:45

anisham wrote:Exit/opinion poll of Satta market: sure BJP seats:
They give 247 to BJP alone



That's excluding TN, WB, AS and other close contests.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 02 May 2014 17:48

Supporting from outside is different from TF forming a Govt with CON support.
So DMK,ADMK,TMC,Left all have to be on the same side

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 02 May 2014 17:49

muraliravi, consistent, sensible and rational - as usual.

Thanks for everything.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 May 2014 17:51

pankajs wrote:How despite TDP, Modi may be keeping door open for Jagan

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-d ... 05591.html


Bull crap article. He rarely names persons with first names. He calls Sehzada, Rajamata. He did the same in AP. He was attacking Jagan at every meeting.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 02 May 2014 18:04

Muppalla wrote:
pankajs wrote:How despite TDP, Modi may be keeping door open for Jagan

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/how-d ... 05591.html


Bull crap article. He rarely names persons with first names. He calls Sehzada, Rajamata. He did the same in AP. He was attacking Jagan at every meeting.


How did he refer to Jagan there?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 May 2014 18:05

With muraliravi's, tally it is very impressive that BJP came that far. At 190 I have no doubts Modi will be PM. In a margin of + or -3% error, he has taken the lowest side. I am sure this time BJP will pull to 200 to 205. NDA will pull to a position just shy of simple majority. That is my take.

I agree that this is all Modi wave.

There are several states in India BJP does not have any ground cadre but people love Modi. In India's structure it is literally impossible to win seat without ground cadre. Elections are extremely expensive and it does not have the money power as INC or some local satraps have. Per grapevine, in Karnataka, INC spent from party level 20cr per seat where as BJP spent about 4cr per seat. In addition to this the individual candidates spend from their pockets. Nandan Nilenkeni spent 200cr but loses. Come to AP Jagan will spend a minimum of 30cr per seat.

The factors in elections:
(1) wave
(2) demographics (religion, caste)
(3) nitpicking and stupid middle classes
(4) votes who vote only if money is given
(5) cadre who can work to bring its voters to booths
(6) money, money, money
(7) perception management

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 02 May 2014 18:07

RajeshA wrote:How did he refer to Jagan there?


(1) do you want to make seemandhra as scamandhra?
(2) Mother and son screwed India, father and son screwed AP?
(3) If you vote YSRC neither I nor anyone can help you

etc., etc.,. A lot of anti-TDP gangs are very unhappy with Modi's speech. They were saying he should not have attacked Jagan so directly.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby pankajs » 02 May 2014 18:11

NDTV ‏@ndtv 2h

There is a BJP wave in Amethi too, and we are fighting these elections to win: Amit Shah #Elections2014

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Singha » 02 May 2014 18:16

Namo should go there and organize a huge rally. Flood the place with workers.
leave the congis no safe family seat.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dilbu » 02 May 2014 18:18

Okay I am making my prediction. 210 for BJP.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby muraliravi » 02 May 2014 18:19

Muppalla wrote:With muraliravi's, tally it is very impressive that BJP came that far. At 190 I have no doubts Modi will be PM. In a margin of + or -3% error, he has taken the lowest side. I am sure this time BJP will pull to 200 to 205. NDA will pull to a position just shy of simple majority. That is my take.

I agree that this is all Modi wave.



Exactly, expectations are so high that people thing 200 or sub 200 is a defeat. IMHO, BJP has done zilch from 2004 to mid 2013. You cant expect miracles in 1 year. There is only so much that you can do in wave without ground soldiers in vast parts of the country. In fact I am surprised that they have been able to gain so much traction in UP.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Sanjay » 02 May 2014 18:28

That is very correct. To me anything over 180 is a "wave" for BJP. The absence of ground-workers or even a presence in whole swathes of the country cannot be wished away. Add to that people consider local factors in their voting and without effective and decent party units at state level, national level "waves" cannot be maximized.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 02 May 2014 18:42

How the sharp divide in votes in UP will benefit Modi

When a mammoth crowd was witnessed at his first rally in Kanpur on October 19, many had said the crowds were a result of the continuous efforts of Modi’s lieutenant Amit Shah, the party's point-man for UP. However, similar scenes of thousands converging to watch the BJP leader amply demonstrated the Modi wave was strong in the state.

And as time has passed, the Gujarat CM’s persona has become larger than life, reducing other BJP bigwigs to pygmies. Travelling across large parts of eastern and western UP, what has become more visible is that he is transcending beyond the BJP voter. Many are also looking past his alleged role in the 2002 Gujarat riots. “How long are we going to brood over what happened 12 years ago? We need to look forward,” is the common refrain of the youth in the area.

And the pro-Modi voices are only becoming louder in the area, be it in the bastions of the Congress supremos – the Gandhis, or the stronghold of Samajwadi Party chief Mulayam Singh Yadav or even in the pocket burrows of Bahujan Samaj Party supremo Mayawati. “I will vote for Modi this time,” said 24-year-old Shailendra in Bachchrawan block of Rae Bareli. Voicing similar sentiments, Ram Kumar, a shopkeeper in Jagdishpur area of Amethi said, “I have always voted for Rahul bhaiyya. But there has been no change all these years. I didn’t want Modi but somehow he appears to be genuine and offers some hope.”

In Varanasi, when 32-year-old taxi driver Sunil Kumar was asked why he was impressed with Modi, pat came the reply, “There were four people who went to Gujarat for work from my family. When they returned home, they only spoke of the development and good stories about the state. They all described Modi as a good CM and hence, I feel he will do well for all.”

Other than his Gujarat model, others also seem to be taken up by the fact that Modi has been able to rise beyond his established image of a rabid Hindutva icon. At his first rally in Kanpur, Modi had said, “Humara mahatvapoorn udeshya ye hai ki har Hindu achha Hindu bane; har Musalmaan achha Musalmaan bane, har Sikh achha Sikh bane, har Isayi achha Isayi bane aur har Buddhisht achha Buddhist bane. Aur hum sabko ek saath lekar is desh ko aage baraen (Most importantly, what we need to do is to make every Hindu a good Hindu, every Muslim a good Muslim, every Sikh a good Sikh, every Christian a good Christian and every Buddhist a good Buddhist; and then we must ensure that they all pitch in their energies together to build a good nation).”


Impressed by his ability to shun any reference to Hindutva, Rati Sharma, a software engineer told this journalist at Varanasi’s Dashwamedh Ghat, “Unlike other BJP leaders, who could not rise beyond Hindutva, Modi is clearly not interested in digging old graves. He is only focused on development.”

And while it is amply evident that the pro-Modi vote is strongly united, the anti-Modi vote appears to be clearly divided. And it is the clerics and leaders of different political parties that have helped to divide the anti-Modi vote, helping the BJP leader to forge ahead and fulfil his political ambitions. For instance, in Rae Bareli, influential Islamic cleric Maulana Tauqeer Raza, who had thrown his weight behind the Congress in 2009, is now openly favouring the Bahujan Samaj Party. But poll pundits reveal that his proximity to BJP’s Santosh Gangwar could accrue indirect electoral dividends to the BJP by insuring a divide of the anti-Modi vote.

His sworn rival Maulana Subhani Mian, who heads another key sect owing allegiance to the ‘dargah’ of Ala Hazrat, has decided to ostensibly remain neutral. “I leave it to your own discretion to decide who you should vote for,” he said in a statement issued earlier this month.

Significantly, in Deoband, popular cleric Maulana Asad Madani, considered as one of Modi’s most vehement opponents, also appealed to people to vote for the ‘strongest secular candidate’, without naming any political outfit. This once again, helped Modi, as it splits the anti-Modi vote further.

In Rampur, another Muslim-dominated town, the community is sharply divided between the Congress, SP and BSP, hence making it easier for BJP’s Nepal Singh and in turn, helps Modi move one step closer to the PM’s chair.

The scene is no different in once Rashtriya Lok Dal-dominated Meerut, Baghpat, Kairana, Muzaffarnagar or other neighbouring constituencies of western UP. The SP too has lost a lot of support in the region in the aftermath of the Muzaffarnagar riots, which occurred last August-September. Perhaps, the delayed, albeit heavy compensation packet of Rs 13 lakh to the next of kin of each of the 62 victims killed, may help the ruling SP to rebuild bridges with Muslims.

But even if the pro-SP voices are to be believed, there is no denying that disillusionment with the Congress, failures of the Akhilesh Yadav government, poor impression left behind by the Mayawati regime and above all, a badly divided fight against Modi has boosted his strength to take the juggernaut even beyond the party’s own expectations.


Can BJP get 50+ in UP?

Comments:

Writing is clear on the wall
by unmesh (View MyPage) on May 02, 2014 07:04 PM

I belong to UP and during the course of traveling and random talking to laymen like paan, tea or vegetable vendors or even to the urban elite and opinion makers in Lucknow, Kanpur, Unnao, Barabanki, Faizabad, Basti, Raebareli, Sitapur, Hardoi etc. One can gauge the massive polarization and penetration of Modi wave. Their is lot of social churning going on in UP
Last edited by vivek.rao on 02 May 2014 18:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby satya » 02 May 2014 18:43

In Nation's best interest : BJP 'must' on its own go above 183 & Congress must go below 140 .Rest is maya .

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby sum » 02 May 2014 18:44

Perhaps, the delayed, albeit heavy compensation packet of Rs 13 lakh to the next of kin of each of the 62 victims killed, may help the ruling SP to rebuild bridges with Muslims.

And how much did "non-minorities" get i wonder ( other than jail time)?

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mihaylo » 02 May 2014 18:47

Patni wrote:IMHO the whole thing is going to come down to BJP on its own geting 220 +/- 20 seats. CON party on its own 100 +/- 10 seats, As a single largest party President is expected to invite BJP to form goverment, but in past CON party has played games on this and largest coaliation that can form stable government should be given first chance voices will scream at us 24/7. M/s NaMo & AmSh being wise to this have ensured having a HUGE pre-poll alliance for NDA. The NDA may come up to 220 + 50 = 270 +/- 27. UPA maybe at 130 and So called 3RD front etc at 142. IMHO there is a 10% chance of NDA falling short of about 10 seats and reach 262 where as UPA + 3rdfront at 280! but since Didi cant go with comrades and BSP cant go with SP at this moment in time so it will end up that President will invite BJP lead NDA to have a first shot at making goverment and I have full faith in M/s NaMo & AmSh to have already worked out 20 most likely to be pulled into NDA orbit and have a stable goverment. IMHO there is 80% chance of Modi sarkar with NDA+ at 270 and 10% chance that NDA+ reach only at 260 but we will still get a Modi Sarkar! as of today i see < 10% chance of any one else other then modi being next PM. I am hoping that after next round we will be able to reach 270 for NDA as lowest mark number from current 260.


Guys, is there any chance that the BJP will make the government without Modi. Perhaps, maybe if the supporters demand such an arrangement.

-M

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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 02 May 2014 18:48

Telangana: maitas66 @chinmaykrvd

State BJP internal estimations suggest 11 MLA and 3 MP seats.Interestingly both MIM and BJP claiming they will win Nizamabad Urban

SaiK
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Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SaiK » 02 May 2014 18:51

satya wrote:..maya
jaya?


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