AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Rony
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 05 May 2014 16:21

AP: Church leaders ask Christians to vote for secular parties YSR Congress

For the first time, the Andhra Pradesh federation of Churches has issued a pastoral letter urging Christian community to elect only secular parties YSR Congress in the elections. The letter was read out during the mass on Sunday morning.

The letter read out on Sunday morning asked the parishioners to elect leaders who uphold secular and pluralistic character of India and its Constitution.

The letter makes it clear that it is not backing any particular political party. The letter only talks about making the 'right choice'. However, it is being seen as a warning against the TDP which has an alliance with the BJP in the state. While some argue that since the Congress is out of the race in Andhra, it may help YS Jagan Mohan Reddy's YSRCP.

Andhra has a large number of Christians. According to some estimates, many of them are recent converts.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 05 May 2014 17:39

There is also serious push back as per my information. People are now clear that they need to vote for BJP/TDP only if they wants development. But YSR gang also has a set of people including many mafia A team jump jilanis and EJ votes with it. Jagan and CBN are fighting for their survival.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 05 May 2014 19:26

YS Vijayamma gave a speech to a congregation of Christian pastors and asked them to vote for YSRCP. She has promised a number of SOPS like salaries etc.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/ys-vi ... ction-code

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby saip » 05 May 2014 19:57

I see Vijayamma is wearing a bindi, a large one at that!

Was a little astounded that many of the working class in Andhra dont know that Jagan is EJ. How did they fool them?


Probably that is how!

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 05 May 2014 22:01

Bala ‏@Bala406 2h
If TRS gets above 60, it wont ally with MIM!! if it alliance, BJP will grow rapidly in TG!!


So I wonder if a TRS-MIM alliance would be good for the short term.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 05 May 2014 22:04

on twitter, bala, chinmay, and there are a host of junk who keep churning rumor after rumor. These guys live in some cooku land. To collate info in the midst of rumors is very time taking and needs a lot of patience.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 05 May 2014 22:12

Muppalla wrote:on twitter, bala, chinmay, and there are a host of junk who keep churning rumor after rumor. These guys live in some cooku land. To collate info in the midst of rumors is very time taking and needs a lot of patience.


On AP, apart from our BRF crowd, the only one who even seems remotely sane there is a character called Vamsy (not our Vamsee) going by the username of kreasy. He is biased towards BJP-TDP, but is thankfully sane and reports facts, not rumours. The others are just noise, as far as I have seen.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 05 May 2014 22:53

nageshks wrote:
Muppalla wrote:on twitter, bala, chinmay, and there are a host of junk who keep churning rumor after rumor. These guys live in some cooku land. To collate info in the midst of rumors is very time taking and needs a lot of patience.


On AP, apart from our BRF crowd, the only one who even seems remotely sane there is a character called Vamsy (not our Vamsee) going by the username of kreasy. He is biased towards BJP-TDP, but is thankfully sane and reports facts, not rumours. The others are just noise, as far as I have seen.


Channels and websites are openly biased towards jagan or TDP. For EX: A televangelist called Raja and a small time hero criticized Pawan kalyan. His language was full of biblical terms like Messiah etc. Except Sakshi TV no other channel reported it.

In andhra a lot of things happen mysteriously. This Raja's film career was completely over because he criticized some filmi bigwigs openly and his career ended there. He was bankrupt and tried committing suicide. Then he turned towards Christianity and tried entering Congress just before YSR died.
Once YSR died he became part of YSRCP and he now is a part of the Church Organization of Brother Anil Kumars ( BIL of jagan) and now controls churches in Kakinada and Rajhmundry. He is also campaigning for him in Coastal districts. His fortunes seems to have made a huge U-turn
He recently married a rich christian girl and had a huge lavish marriage. He goes around in a fleet of Land rovers. A bankrupt personality with no career now owns mansions with lifts in kakinada and is always dressed in gaudy expensive salwars.

One can only guess how much Jagan and his group stole from Andhra. Every guy who remotely helped them ended with huge properties and power over all kinds of crap.

Also Rates of Votes across Andhra

http://deccan-journal.com/content/vote- ... oss-andhra

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 06 May 2014 01:32

bhavani wrote:A televangelist called Raja and a small time hero criticized Pawan kalyan. His language was full of biblical terms like Messiah etc. Except Sakshi TV no other channel reported it.
...A bankrupt personality with no career now owns mansions with lifts in kakinada and is always dressed in gaudy expensive salwars.


Jokers KA Paul and Anil Kumar are motivation to many such useless fellows.
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 06 May 2014 01:35

Looks like last revenge of Congress mafia. Enforcement Directorate slaps money laundering case on Dasari Narayana Rao and Navin Jindal.

What took them so long right after Dasari reveals his being an 'incidental' Coal Minister?

NEW DELHI: Weeks after elections in Haryana got over and while one phase of polls in Andhra Pradesh is still pending, Enforcement Directorate (ED) has registered a case under Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA) against Congress MPs Dasari Narayana Rao and Naveen Jindal in connection with the coal blocks allocation case.

The case has been registered in connection with transfer of Rs 2.25 crore to Rao's media company by Jindal as an alleged quid pro quo for allocation of coal blocks to Jindal Steel in Jharkhand in 2008. At that time, Rao was minister of state in the coal ministry. The case has been registered based on the 12th FIR by CBI in the coal scam in which it has booked Rao and Jindal among others.

The agency has also named members and officials of the 35th screening committee (government constituted multi-member body) in its FIR. Others accused in the case include Gagan Sponge Iron Pvt Ltd, Jindal Steel and Power Limited (JSPL), Jindal Realty Pvt Ltd, New Delhi Exim Pvt Ltd and Rao-owned Sowbhagya Media Ltd.

According to the ED case, firms owned by Rao received Rs 2.25 crore camouflaged as investment from one of Jindal's firms within a year of allocation of a coal block to him. The money was 'invested' through multi-layered transactions that involved various companies.

The agency will now ascertain movable and immovable assets of the accused and move to attach them if it finds that they were bought with the proceeds of the crime. Properties once attached will not be available for use by the accused until the case is decided.

The agency is already investigating all transactions between various companies involved in the alleged 'investment' by Jindal's firms into Rao's companies.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 06 May 2014 01:40

LINK

The decline of the Congress a certainty in Andhra
Hindustan Times


It was once the stronghold of the Congress. But today, Andhra Pradesh is turning out to be its Achilles’ heel. Seen at some levels, the party has itself to blame for this. In 2004, when the Telangana movement was reviving under the aegis of the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS), the Congress was able to co-opt the party and its leader, K Chandrashekar Rao, under the broad umbrella of the UPA, with Mr Rao as a minister for some years. Though Mr Rao pulled out, the Congress was able to improve its performance in the 2009 elections. But after the accidental death of the then chief minister, YS Rajasekhara Reddy, the Congress seemed to lose the plot. Its ill-timed announcement of Telangana in late 2009 and then dithering on the promise hit the party badly in both the Telangana and Seemandhra regions. Though the party finally made way for the creation of the new state, it could not undo the damage, with Mr Rao reneging on his promise that he would merge his party with the Congress once the Telangana demand was met. If the Congress fails to return to power at the Centre, the seeds of its debacle can be said to have been sown in Andhra Pradesh.

The rise of Jaganmohan Reddy and the repeated successes of his party, the YSR Congress, in bypolls in the state seemed like a harbinger of things to come. The sympathy for him — both for his father’s death and the supposedly rough treatment he received from the Congress — made the corruption charges against him go by the board. Things were going so much in his favour that his party was at one time expected to walk away with at least 15 of the 25 seats in the Seemandhra region, but currently the Telugu Desam Party, in alliance with the BJP, seems to have gained some ground. And it is here that Muslim organisations such as the Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen have come a cropper.

One of the NDA government’s greatest achievements was the smooth creation of Jharkhand, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh. In the reverse, the handling of the Telangana issue has been the UPA government’s major lapse and has only made Andhra Pradesh a multi-polar entity. Telangana has no clear winner, though Mr Rao and his party are slightly ahead in the race



Looks like HT is preparing their Lootyens crowd for Congress wipe out even in Telangana.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby James B » 06 May 2014 04:28

SC has power to dump Telangana


New Delhi, May 5: The Supreme Court today said it has enough powers to annul the creation of Telangana if there is any unconstitutionality but declined to stay the notification carving out the new state.

“It is a policy decision. By way of an interim order, we can’t stay the policy decision of the government,” a bench of Justices H.L. Dattu, Madan B. Lokur and S.A. Bobde said. “Maybe at a later stage we will say it is contrary to the constitutional provision.”

The court agreed to examine the constitutional validity of the decision after a detailed hearing. It said it would decide whether the matter can be examined by a three-judge bench or needs to be referred to a five-judge Constitution bench.

Senior counsel Rajeev Dhavan, who was one of several senior counsel appearing for a batch of anti-Telangana petitioners, had pleaded for a stay on the proposed bifurcation notification that will be issued on June 2.

As the various counsel pleaded that no purpose would be served if the notification was not stayed, the court said it has enough powers to deal with the situation if eventually the creation was found contrary to the Constitution.

“Maybe after examining the matter and having heard the parties, this court may say you (government) have violated all constitutional provisions. We may annul that (creation),” Justice Dattu, heading the bench, said.

The court said it would post the matter for hearing in August either by a three-judge bench or a five-judge constitutional bench.

But this did not satisfy the counsel, who continued to plead for a stay.

The bench said: “This court can always scrabble or unscrabble things. This court can always mould the relief. It can always say whether it is retrospective or prospective.” It then adjourned the matter to August 20.

During the hearing, V. Arun Kumar, a Congress MP from Andhra Pradesh, also urged the court to stay the notification. Parliamentary proceedings were conducted in an “illegal” manner to pass the bill for carving out Telangana, he said. Kumar said the Centre went ahead despite objections from the state Assembly solely for political benefit.

But the apex court said it would hear all these issues in August.

On March 7, the court had sought a response from the Centre on a batch of PILs challenging the decision to form a separate Telangana state, but at that time too had refused to stay the move.

The petitioners, who include former Andhra chief minister N. Kiran Kumar Reddy, have challenged the state’s bifurcation on the ground that it was unconstitutional because there was no consent from the state legislature.

They have also argued that there was no constitutional amendment preceding the bifurcation. Parliament should have first amended or deleted Articles 371D and 371 E, which granted special status to Andhra, the petitioners have said.

The two articles gave special preference to the people of Telangana in matters of employment, education and other government benefits.


http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140506/j ... 2gf3GSSyzs

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 May 2014 06:06

See the powerful preacher (YSR's sin-in-law) stops rain


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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 06 May 2014 07:43

Today i had a number of conversations with a number of friends in Vijayawada, Vizag, Vizianagaram, Tirupathi and nellore. I had a deep sinking feeling. Almost everyone was of the feeling that YSRCP will make it. Nobody wanted it to come to power, but everybody feels that YSRCP will make it as all the lower classes are staunchly for it. The groups for Jagan include Brahmins+Reddys+Christians+muslims. I am happy that Modi will make it but I am sad that CBN will not make it. Andhra will be stuck with a EJ who will suck Andhra dry and make Andhra a christian state.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SanjayC » 06 May 2014 07:50

Was a little astounded that many of the working class in Andhra dont know that Jagan is EJ. How did they fool them?


By hiding Xian symbols (cross, bible, statue of Jesus, etc.) and making a great show of wearing Hindu cultural and religious symbols (tilak, sacred thread around the wrist, bindi, getting themselves clicked going to Hindu temples, etc.). Wolves wearing sheep's clothing to impress other dumb sheep.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Arjun » 06 May 2014 07:51

bhavani wrote:The groups for Jagan include Brahmins+Reddys+Christians+muslims

Why would Brahmins want to be part of this group? I am curious...

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby suryag » 06 May 2014 08:03

Looking at the humongous money that JAggu is pumping there is very high likelihood that he will win :( IFF(which is an impossibility) Jagan loses this, he will lose money and also goto jail. Btw i heard it is not his money he is putting in, it is local candidates from his party(not sure how much it is true) who are putting in their money so even if he loses it might not be so bad for him.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby putnanja » 06 May 2014 08:06

Arjun wrote:
bhavani wrote:The groups for Jagan include Brahmins+Reddys+Christians+muslims

Why would Brahmins want to be part of this group? I am curious...


I would guess as others said above, that they are not aware of the EJ roots of YSR breed...

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 06 May 2014 08:20

putnanja wrote:
bhavani wrote:The groups for Jagan include Brahmins+Reddys+Christians+muslims

Why would Brahmins want to be part of this group? I am curious...

I would guess as others said above, that they are not aware of the EJ roots of YSR breed...


Brahmins have traditionally aligned with Congress and now YSRCP. They feel that TDP is a kamma party, which now is not the case in many areas. like Vijaywada where traditional Kamma family like Devineni's are on Congi or YSRCP.

unless the middle classes vote completely to TDP and kapus switch alliance because of Pawan, the chances for TDP look slim. But if TDP does make, it would be in many ways because of Pawan splitting BC and Kapu votes.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Arjun » 06 May 2014 08:21

putnanja wrote:
Arjun wrote:Why would Brahmins want to be part of this group? I am curious...


I would guess as others said above, that they are not aware of the EJ roots of YSR breed...

The assertion that Brahmins are for Jagan does not seem correct to me. Does not match with their interest either from a social or development standpoint. Also does not match with the Brahmin voting pattern in rest of country.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 06 May 2014 08:33

Brahmins perceived NTR (senior) to be anti-Brahmin as he abolished the munasab/karanam (patel/patwari in T) system where the karanam posts were held by Brahmins. One of the things he did in his early days as CM was to suddenly reduce the retirement age from 58 to 55 to create more opportunities for youth and a significant number of Brahmin employees suffered because of this policy. Some of his movies might have been seen as anti-Brahmin as they questioned superiority of Brahmins by birth. Brahmins also sided with Indira Gandhi on caste basis and TDP/NTR was anti CongI and anti Indira. At the beginning of his political career, NTR did have Brahmin supporters, but later he lost most of them and Brahmins have been anti-TDP for a long time.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Arjun » 06 May 2014 08:45

Are there any other recent examples of anti-Brahmin policies of CBN ? If Telugu Brahmins are using NTR's 4 decades old policies (which are no big deal in any case) and not comparing them with Jagan's EJ activities today - their political thinking is surely more backward than even the Dalits and Yadavs of UP and Bihar.

Besides - being probably the group most exposed to social media they should be aware of a lot of things. Also, Brahmins typically are interested in development over doles. So - something does not seem right to me.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 06 May 2014 08:58

Arjun wrote:Are there any other recent examples of anti-Brahmin policies of CBN ? If Telugu Brahmins are using NTR's 4 decades old policies (which are no big deal in any case) and not comparing them with Jagan's EJ activities today - their political thinking is surely more backward than even the Dalits and Yadavs of UP and Bihar.

Besides - being probably the group most exposed to social media they should be aware of a lot of things. Also, Brahmins typically are interested in development over doles. So - something does not seem right to me.


I think this time a percentage of younger brahmins will vote for TDP. A lot of lower classes have also realized that CBN is better than Jagan. I hope they vote rationally. I can only hope. I really hate to see once again tirupathi's wealth looted and Andhra becoming a majority christian state.

But there are too many groups too many combinations it is very hard to predict

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kmkraoind » 06 May 2014 09:02

It seems CBN wanted to removed that perception that TDP is anti-Brahmin party a few months back.

Naidu promises to set up Rs. 500-cr corpus fund for Brahmins

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 06 May 2014 09:30

No body appears know who is going to win as YSRCP is a new entrant. TDP is matching YSRCP in terms of cash and among lower classes, one family member is going to vote YSRCP another for TDP. Brahmins may vote for TDP because of BJP alliance.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 06 May 2014 10:07

from online chatter

Maa Village Lo 2500 kapu votes
before every one thought to vote for YSRC
But now TDP ki Bec of P Anna
cry

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby johneeG » 06 May 2014 11:40

gpati wrote:
johneeG wrote:CBN should just create new leadership and take a backseat like Loh Purush.


Johnee garu, CBN is creating secular-hindutva leadership. :)

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virupaksha » 06 May 2014 11:41

The easiest is check the caste combinations of tickets given. In BJP/TDP out of 290 assembly candidates and 42 parliamentary candidates, there is no brahmin - not even in guarenteed loss seats.

The genes of tdp come from justice party, which gave the ideological framework for the dravidian parties in tamil nadu. kammas were the backbone of that party and tdp and now slowly bjp. Also note which leaders had to exit in venkaih naidu (kamma) era.

Those brahmins who have had their poliitical education not on twitter/net but on ground, know this.
Last edited by Virupaksha on 06 May 2014 13:09, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Hari Seldon » 06 May 2014 11:57


a_bharat
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 06 May 2014 14:19

Apparently Sabbam Hari withdrew from Vizag MP contest at the last minute in favour of the NDA.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 May 2014 14:52

a_bharat wrote:Apparently Sabbam Hari withdrew from Vizag MP contest at the last minute in favour of the NDA.


This will be pretty bad news for YSRC's president Vijayamma. Huge boost to BJP to win Vizag LS seat.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 May 2014 15:01

gpati wrote:No body appears know who is going to win as YSRCP is a new entrant. TDP is matching YSRCP in terms of cash and among lower classes, one family member is going to vote YSRCP another for TDP. Brahmins may vote for TDP because of BJP alliance.



This is first time ever that in the same family, some will vote to YSRC and others will vote to TDP. It is a generational thing. Anyone who is aged 45 or less will vote for TDP. Here is where 75% of voters will vote for TDP. NaMo factor works magic for this demographic. The older one is still stuck to old bruises (perceived and real) of caste. The older gen Brahmins who were retired from Government etc., are still stuck to congress and which is replaced by YSRC. They are very blind to the EJ stuff as these folks create an image that they are at heart Hindus.

There is no caste that will 100% vote for either YSRC or TDP. This is an age group based election. The edge is clearly for TDP.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 06 May 2014 16:36

But serious EJ publicity has reached lot of people and people are slowly waking up to the danger. By and large people are looking for a helpful Delhi and know that it will only be by BJP and NM. So TDP will get lot of supporters from every section.

The people who want to vote for Jagan are people who want to have lot of freebees and not interested in any real job and developments. Unfortunately huge sections of voters were created by YSR and Mafia who are only interested to get everything free. They will vote for Jagan only no matter what.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 06 May 2014 17:03

From T S Sudhir

Battle for Andhra Pradesh : Naidu vs Jagan

It is a fascinating contest taking place in the heat and dust of Seemandhra. The mood is angry out there as the wounds of bifurcation haven’t healed completely, the feeling of `we will show them’ is burning in their hearts. They are still uttering the `D’ word but this `D’ is not about division but about Development. Despite the loss of Hyderabad, those in Seemandhra want to show that they can build a state better than Telangana and a brand new capital city that would be the envy of those living in the city of the Charminar.

That is the context in which this match is being played between Nara Chandrababu Naidu and Y S Jaganmohan Reddy in the 25 Lok Sabha and 175 assembly constituencies of Seemandhra. With the Congress out of the race and also-rans like Kiran Kumar Reddy there only as side actors, it is a clear one-on-one fight. No holds barred.
These are my takeaways from my travelling around Seemandhra districts and conversations (and phone chats) with both partisan and neutral observers of politics in this region.

Modi wave

The most obvious question that every visitor from the north of the Vindhyas would like to know the answer to. On the surface, there is no Modi wave. No one even talks about the NDA’s PM candidate in these parts. But listen carefully and you will realise why Seemandhra’s results may well leave Modi smiling.The disgust against the Congress is so deep, so intense that the natural beneficiary of that anger is Modi. When people look for a national option that is fiercely anti-Congress, Modi becomes the most obvious choice as far as Parliament is concerned. That is where Naidu has done the smart thing by tying up with Modi. Because then Naidu gains from the desire of those voters who are looking at who should occupy 7 RCR next and those votes are likely to go into the TDP-BJP alliance kitty.

In contrast, Jagan has virtually nothing to offer as far as New Delhi is concerned. Apart from a feeble proclamation that he is willing to do business with anyone but the Congress. For a state looking for dollops of grants from Delhi, having ruling party MPs would help. This factor will give Naidu a decisive edge over Jagan in the Lok Sabha polls in Seemandhra, particularly in constituencies with a higher awareness quotient. The tide may not be against YSRC to the same extent in LS seats with a higher proportion of not-so-politically aware voters.

The Pawan Kalyan factor

The reason why Modi is not such a talking point is also because the BJP in this region is a non-entity in Seemandhra. With Kishan Reddy reducing the Andhra Pradesh unit in the last five years to a Telangana unit, the Seemandhra unit of the BJP was a decrepit outfit. But what is helping its cause is the pinch-hitting that actor Pawan Kalyan has done for Modi in the last one week of the campaign. The actor has a tremendous fan following and he is using his fan clubs and Jana Sena to take the message of `Modi for PM’ to the masses in Seemandhra far better than the BJP. If the BJP-TDP alliance does well, they owe it in large measure to Pawan Kalyan.

Kapu vote

The hope is that like elder brother Chiranjeevi whose party Praja Rajyam polled a large number of Kapu votes in 2009, Pawan would be able to net a majority of the 27 per cent Kapu vote in Seemandhra. A large number of first-time voters in Guntur told me that they will vote for TDP only because Pawan Kalyan told them to. While a large number of votes he would attract would come from the community, the flip side is that he is seen more as an actor, some kind of a youth icon and not so much as a Kapu representative. Also the Kapus are not entirely comfortable voting for a Kamma party (TDP) so I doubt how many votes will get transferred because of Pawan’s campaigning for the alliance.

The fact that Naidu at the last minute announced that one of the two deputy CMs will be a Kapu, reveals his desperation and perhaps an indication that Pawan has not been able to convince the community to plump for the bicycle. This is significant.

As a damage control measure, YSR Congress has managed to persuade Kapunadu, an umbrella organisation representing the community to back the party. Moreover, YSRC has fielded a fair number of Kapu candidates in key constituencies.

Development Development Development

Like Vidya Balan in `The Dirty Picture’ says “Entertainment Entertainment Entertainment”, Naidu has gone into overdrive uttering the Development word. With hoardings of Naidu with Bill Gates and Hi-Tec city plastered all over urban constituencies of Seemandhra, Naidu is promising to create another Cyberabad. Talk to people who have seen Naidu as CM between 1995-2004 and they want to give him a chance. They see in him a more mature and visionary leader, wiser from having been dumped twice by the voters, who would put Seemandhra on the path to development. In contrast, to this section of the electorate, Jagan comes across as an inexperienced leader along with also the taint of corruption cases against him.

Naidu’s credibility crisis

But then this does not mean there is a wave in favour of Naidu. The former CM still suffers from a credibility crisis, especially in the countryside and most remember his tendency to use and throw. There are also two Naidus who are campaigning. One is for the urban areas promising development and the other offering dollops of unimplementable and economically nonsensical sops. Politicians who offer fish to eat without making the unskilled learn fishing, can be disastrous.

Corruption

This is the cuss word Naidu utters everytime he has to abuse Jagan. He calls him a psycho and derides him by saying his place is in jail. Jagan too has provided ammunition by giving tickets to people like industrialists like Koneru Prasad (Vijayawada LS) and Ayodhya Rami Reddy (Narsaraopet LS) who are chargesheeted in different cases, like him. But is the criticism working? Among the educated lot in urban centres, yes. But talk to people in rural Seemandhra and they ask you who is not corrupt and whether Naidu is 100% clean.
Jagan’s argument that the cases were politically motivated too has worked for him as most people believe that he would not have gone to jail if he had stayed on in the Congress. As a stick to beat Jagan with, corruption has not been too effective.



YSR legacy

More than himself, his mother and sister, it is his dad’s legacy that is working like a fixed deposit for Jagan. Eight of every ten YSR Congress supporters who I spoke to, in any part of Seemandhra, have good things to say about YSR and how they want to give the son a chance because the father passed away soon after they had given him a second term in May 2009. But will this feel-good factor alone work magic for Jagan, up against the might of Modi-Naidu-Pawan Kalyan, is the question. But if he has to encash it, it has to be now. 2019 will be too far away.

Telugu Congress Party

The biggest blunder Naidu committed was to admit a whole lot of Congress turncoats into the TDP, converting it into a branch office of Indira Bhavan. If they were liabilities in the Congress, how can they win elections in the TDP. Getting TDP cadre to gel with the campaigners of the Congress turncoat and to canvas for someone who you criticised till a month ago, has been Naidu’s biggest challenge. If the TDP suffers in the assembly contest, it will because of this singular reason.

Have money, will contest

It does not matter if you have never been in politics before. If you are loaded and willing to splurge, you are welcome to wear the party colours. Any party. Look at the profile of the candidates and you will know why. From Jaydev Galla to Koneru Prasad to Rami Reddy to Kesineni Nani, both the TDP and YSRC have fielded crorepati candidates. Those in the know of things say, many a candidate is spending between 10 to 25 crore rupees in an assembly contest and upto 70 crores in a Lok Sabha contest. Imagine the next few years will be spent in recovering that money with interest. “In politics, it is easy,” said a former MP. Thankyou.

Congress = Zero

This is the side story of this election. The ruling party that sent 29 and 33 MPs to Parliament in 2004 and 2009 respectively is poised to fall to unimaginable depths this election. Its vote share is unlikely to even touch double digits in Seemandhra and it will be a miracle if it wins any Lok Sabha seat. Chiranjeevi, its star campaigner, has not drawn any crowds and if you asked people to name the Congress candidate, in most cases they did not even know. But the anger against the Congress is not just because of bifurcation, it is also due to lack of good governance in the last five years. The electorate is fed up with the Congress and they want to deliver it a stinging electoral slap. “Iss thappad ki goonj suni tum ne” (Did you hear the sound of this slap?)
At the Guntur rally, the only one Sonia Gandhi addressed in Seemandhra, hired crowds (for 100 to 200 rupees per person) admitted they were upset with the Congress decision to bifurcate but came only because money was offered. A farce of a democracy Indian elections have become.

Kiran Kumar Reddy, a non-entity

A traffic constable manning the crowded Kaleshwaram market in Vijayawada, where Kiran Kumar Reddy was addressing a public meeting, told me, “If it was not for the fact that he was our CM, we will never allow him to hold a meeting in such a place, throwing the traffic out of gear. He is a loser.” One wonders why Kiran is even bothering to campaign since he is not even a serious player in the race. At best, he will eat into a bit of the Jagan vote and only help TDP in the bargain.

Since this is a straight contest, even a margin of 2 per cent difference between YSRC and TDP-BJP can result in a huge difference in the harvest of seats and convey the impression of a sweep. But on the ground, each seat is being very fiercely contested. At the moment, Naidu seems to be marginally ahead in the race. Partly because of the alliance’s focus on 94 of the 175 seats that are urban or semi-urban. But poor candidate selection (two in every district, by TDP’s own admission) means the party starts with a minus of at least 25 assembly seats.
Elections are usually decided in the last 48 hours. A lot will also depend on the distribution of money and liquor at the last minute by both parties and whether that will sway a large number of voters. Also established merchants of community votebanks also will be purchased enmasse by both parties. The voting percentage will also matter as a higher turnout will work to the TDP-BJP’s advantage.


A defeat for Jagan will leave him licking his wounds and put him at the mercy of a Chandrababu Naidu who is on record saying he would like to send him to jail. A defeat for Naidu – a third one in a row – would end his political career and poachers would gobble up the TDP. As far as the Congress is concerned, it will take a lot of effort for it to ensure it does not go the Tamilnadu way in Andhra Pradesh.

vivek.rao
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Posts: 3775
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 06 May 2014 17:35

I had tremendous response from people in Vizag as I am calling the number. Lot of support for Modi translating into support for Naidu too.

People tell him his screensaver is Modi. We are doing this for nation. Everyone tells me that YSRC is giving a lot of money.
Last edited by vivek.rao on 06 May 2014 17:45, edited 1 time in total.

Muppalla
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Posts: 7096
Joined: 12 Jun 1999 11:31

Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 06 May 2014 17:41

A clean sweep is building for TDP. The desperation of Jagan is leading to statements such as YCP will not support Modi after polls. This is to galvanize minorities towards him.

Yagnasri
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Joined: 29 May 2007 18:03

Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Yagnasri » 06 May 2014 18:10

If Jagan is making such statements then he is going to be toast in the hands of TDP. He is always short sighted and in the hands of EJ.

Dasari
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 06 May 2014 18:28

Sabbam Hari resigning at the last minute is an ominous sign that VIjayamma is going to win Vizag. YSRCP is putting unprecedented resources in Vizag - money and people. Today's withdrawal of Sabbam Hari is an act of desperation to stop his arch rival. Sabbam Hari's support to TDP-BJP would have been big boost to the party had he extended the support sooner.It could be too late now, when elections are going to happen in 12 hours.

Shanmukh
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Posts: 2963
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 06 May 2014 19:01

Dasari wrote:Sabbam Hari resigning at the last minute is an ominous sign that VIjayamma is going to win Vizag. YSRCP is putting unprecedented resources in Vizag - money and people. Today's withdrawal of Sabbam Hari is an act of desperation to stop his arch rival. Sabbam Hari's support to TDP-BJP would have been big boost to the party had he extended the support sooner.It could be too late now, when elections are going to happen in 12 hours.


What was Sabbam Hari's support base, Dasari-ji? Can he transfer his support base to BJP-TDP?

Dasari
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 06 May 2014 19:26

On rural side where Vijayamma is winning by big margin, Sabbam Hari can make a difference as he belongs to the local community. In a way he was splitting YSRCP Votes. Now I don't know whether there is enough time to transfer his votes to TDP. The constituency is clearly divided along class. The lower and labor class are voting enmass to YSRCP, and middle class are voting for TDP. In between, all the christian votes are going to YSRCP. In a way Vizag is the bell weather constituency. A victory for TDP means that they are winning big across the state. Likewise for YSRCP.


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