AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

vivek.rao
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 07 May 2014 19:40

WOW! WOW! Whole Andhra came to bury SONIA/PAPPU and JAGGU I think

saip
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby saip » 07 May 2014 19:42

But Jagan is claiming one side sweep!

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SandeepA » 07 May 2014 19:45

Anything above 70% and it is a massive gain for BJP/TDP. Its a combination of TsuNamo and the anti-bifurcation sentiment..the perfect tsunami

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 07 May 2014 19:48

http://www.apherald.com/Politics/ViewAr ... SA-Voted-/

According to highly believable sources the polling trend was gone in TDP way and majority of the people favored towards TDP. The trend in polling on Wednesday indicates a sharp rise in the popularity of TDP in Coastal Andhra( especially in Uttarandhra) .Jagan effect was observed in Rayalaseema districts but it was confined to some regions says analysts.

On Lok Sabha front, Jaganmohan Reddy is believed to be enjoying an edge over TDP's Naidu in Rayalseema that has eight Lok Sabha seats.In Seemandhra (17 Lok Sabha seats) Naidu holding sway in many seats.

Though in Kadapa and Kurnool , the yellow party can expect only a handful of seats, it may fare better than expected in other Seema districts, keeping it on par with the YSRCP party.

The Congress, on the other hand, is in disarray in the region that views it as a party responsible for the creation of Telangana.It had won 21 seats in the 2009 elections, but even the most optimistic of leaders are not sure if the party can win half a dozen.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby suryag » 07 May 2014 19:53

75% polling in AP is unprecedented, either it was super rigging or genuine anger of voters in favour of the NaMo regime

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 07 May 2014 20:15

suryag wrote:75% polling in AP is unprecedented, either it was super rigging or genuine anger of voters in favour of the NaMo regime


It is hitting 80% as per latest update.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 07 May 2014 20:18

It will be the consummation of the irony, if SA saves Narendra Modi by giving him numbers, after Sushi auntie betrayed it in Parliament and backstabbed it after switching off cameras. Hope NaMo remembers where his numbers came from, and remembers his supporters and opponents.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 07 May 2014 20:25

nageshks wrote:It will be the consummation of the irony, if SA saves Narendra Modi by giving him numbers, after Sushi auntie betrayed it in Parliament and backstabbed it after switching off cameras. Hope NaMo remembers where his numbers came from, and remembers his supporters and opponents.


It is 80% everywhere. It is 75% in Vizag but lesser in Tribal areas. The cities voted like there is no tomorrow. Final numbers will cross 80%. What that means is NDA is heading for a landslide. Don't be surprised if BJP gets all 4 including Rajampet. Jagan was saying it is one-sided poll (cryptic though) :).

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 07 May 2014 21:30

suryag wrote:75% polling in AP is unprecedented, either it was super rigging or genuine anger of voters in favour of the NaMo regime


It is in favor of TDP as Namo impact is very minimal. Pawan Kalyan effect is more than Namo as PK pushed any fence-sitting Kapus towards TDP, especially once Seemandhra campaign started.

If TDP wins contributing factors are:
- Anger against Congress which is going towards ZERO
- Strongly in favor of TDP and CBN as right party to rule.
- Not so good opinion on YSRCP
- Jump Jilanis from Congress, PK and NaMo and other marginal elements

ramana
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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 07 May 2014 21:32

The whole country is seeing a Namo wave and AP is also sensing it.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gandharva » 07 May 2014 21:38

ShyamSP wrote:
suryag wrote:75% polling in AP is unprecedented, either it was super rigging or genuine anger of voters in favour of the NaMo regime


It is in favor of TDP as Namo impact is very minimal. Pawan Kalyan effect is more than Namo as PK pushed any fence-sitting Kapus towards TDP, especially once Seemandhra campaign started.

If TDP wins contributing factors are:
- Anger against Congress which is going towards ZERO
- Strongly in favor of TDP and CBN as right party to rule.
- Not so good opinion on YSRCP
- Jump Jilanis from Congress, PK and NaMo and other marginal elements


PK support is due to NaMo effect. I hope CBN doesn't think like above post victory.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby a_bharat » 07 May 2014 21:53

We shouldn't read too much into the high poll %; it was high in 2009 also (about 73%).
On the other hand, if there are any exit polls that data would be useful.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Dasari » 07 May 2014 22:11

a_bharat wrote:We shouldn't read too much into the high poll %; it was high in 2009 also (about 73%).
On the other hand, if there are any exit polls that data would be useful.


If the polling percentage is 70-75%, then i would agree with you. All it means is that TDP has very good chance of winning as opposed to below 70% which means they are in serious trouble.

On the other hand, if it hits 80% (without any rigging) then this got to be a wave. The voters came out with some strong message. It is definitely anti-incumbency, and based on middle class perception, the belief is that it is pro-TDP/BJP vote. I can't wait for the results to come out.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Virupaksha » 07 May 2014 22:16

My sources are telling me the opposite. They are saying it is jagan sweep all the way and voting was highly along caste lines.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SandeepA » 07 May 2014 22:19

What is the polling % in Vizag? I hear it is low 60s..thats not good

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 07 May 2014 22:27

SandeepA wrote:What is the polling % in Vizag? I hear it is low 60s..thats not good


No Vizag rate is around 75%.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 07 May 2014 22:32

Lilo wrote:On Raja reddy


That is an excellent article, Lilo-ji. Thanks for posting it. Many things were new to me there.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 07 May 2014 22:57

Now that things seem to be going against Jagan, now Jagan is ready to support NDA. Just two days back his useless sister Sharmila was criticizing Modi heavily.

http://deccan-journal.com/content/jagan-support-nda

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby nachiket » 07 May 2014 23:00

Hadn't Jagan said before the elections even started that he would be open to supporting anyone who forms the govt. at the center? I'm just hoping NDA gets enough votes not to need his support. They can't go around trying to limit the damage done by EJ's in AP and other places if they are depending on the support of one in parliament.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 07 May 2014 23:08

Jagan is politically successful if he gets 40-50 MLA and 5-6 MP seats. He can all say Congress is corrupt and want to latch on to next Central ruling party. Congress gets ZERO and so all the evil will be attributed to it.

Politically he is safe but other things are what he has to worry about if he doesn't get big numbers. :twisted:

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bahdada » 07 May 2014 23:18

Virupaksha wrote:My sources are telling me the opposite. They are saying it is jagan sweep all the way and voting was highly along caste lines.


This is exactly what has played out.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 07 May 2014 23:26

bahdada wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:My sources are telling me the opposite. They are saying it is jagan sweep all the way and voting was highly along caste lines.


This is exactly what has played out.


Any sources we can read online, saars, or are they verbal?

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 07 May 2014 23:29

bahdada wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:My sources are telling me the opposite. They are saying it is jagan sweep all the way and voting was highly along caste lines.


This is exactly what has played out.


There is no Jagan Sweep, YSRCP had face huge setbacks in Uttara andhra. High poll rates essentially are a sign of High Urgan Vote. This is going to be quite a close contest.

Pawan Kalyan did help CBN quite a bit in moving the Kapu vote and also some lower class youth vote towards TDP.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ShyamSP » 07 May 2014 23:39

bahdada wrote:
Virupaksha wrote:My sources are telling me the opposite. They are saying it is jagan sweep all the way and voting was highly along caste lines.


This is exactly what has played out.


TDP and YSRCP can slug each other out and so can balance each other in TDP districts of Chittoor, Ananthpur, Prakasam and YCP districts of Kadapa, Kurnool, Nellore.

In rest of the districts from Guntur and up, YCP doesn't have Sthana Balam (power of residence) and so needs to rely on old Congress political and caste (SCs and Christian) alliances. This is where TDP out performs YCP.

Kapus (Kapus in Delta, Balijas in RS and South Coastal, Thoorpu Kapus in Uttar Andhra) are the trump card. If Kapu leaders' (PK for example) effect work, there is strong possibility TDP can sweep from Srikakulam to Guntur.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 08 May 2014 01:19

YSRCP leaders are displaying (fake ?) confidence in TV that its their sweep. I still could not figure out the thinking behind their optimism and confidence

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby KLP Dubey » 08 May 2014 01:30

Muppalla wrote:It is 80% everywhere. It is 75% in Vizag but lesser in Tribal areas. The cities voted like there is no tomorrow. Final numbers will cross 80%. What that means is NDA is heading for a landslide. Don't be surprised if BJP gets all 4 including Rajampet. Jagan was saying it is one-sided poll (cryptic though) :).


Sounds like a great result ! Waiting for the map of India to go saffron on May 16.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby ramana » 08 May 2014 02:04

The inetresting and even sad thing is telugu papers and portals hare still in the pre-division mode and have not learn't a new thing.
Despite the massive voter anger the Telugu news media is still in tis old time behavior. I think a good buring or two will soon happen.


ESL Narsimhan has to go for the booth capturing that has happened.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Muppalla » 08 May 2014 02:25

ShyamSP wrote:Kapus (Kapus in Delta, Balijas in RS and South Coastal, Thoorpu Kapus in Uttar Andhra) are the trump card. If Kapu leaders' (PK for example) effect work, there is strong possibility TDP can sweep from Srikakulam to Guntur.


From all sources, it happened. TDP swept everything except seema. In seema also TDP seems to have done impressively in Anathapur and Chittoor. Kadapa, Karnool and bit of Nellore is where YSRC seems to have outperformed TDP. Right now a lot of rumors flying. The body language of the leaders tells differently. Jagan is tensed up and CBN is very relaxed.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 08 May 2014 03:18

Mohan ‏@mohan_saladi 5h
TV5 Exit Polls in Andhra Pradesh
TDP : 105,YCP : 52,INC : 6,BJP : 3 others : 9


Can anyone confirm TV5 reported this? They can't publish Exit polls

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vivek.rao » 08 May 2014 03:26

Jagan's YSRC 2019 election symbol

Image

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby SriKumar » 08 May 2014 04:23

vivek.rao wrote:WOW! WOW! Whole Andhra came to bury SONIA/PAPPU and JAGGU I think

More like PVNR's cremation was finally completed today......
(background: Baru's book suggested that SG had deliberately prevented his full cremation).

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby devesh » 08 May 2014 04:24

nageshks wrote:It will be the consummation of the irony, if SA saves Narendra Modi by giving him numbers, after Sushi auntie betrayed it in Parliament and backstabbed it after switching off cameras. Hope NaMo remembers where his numbers came from, and remembers his supporters and opponents.



so, are you categorizing entire Telangana people a "opponents", here? so in essence, you are saying Namo should get his "revenge" on T for "betraying" BJP? I understand that you don't care for T or its grievances as much as SA, but that's your opinion. but now you are calling for "remembering opponents and supporters". this is language of revenge.

I don't understand why supporting T is "betraying" SA, just as I don't get you advocating revenge on a region. I've said before that T might go through a INC-TRS sweep simply because of the emotional pull of getting the State after so long.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby RajeshA » 08 May 2014 04:58

People voted for the party who they thought would give the state a stake in decision making at the Center, and who stood for development. CBN's credentials as a development man were magnified through Modi's persona as a development man.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Shanmukh » 08 May 2014 05:03

devesh wrote:
nageshks wrote:It will be the consummation of the irony, if SA saves Narendra Modi by giving him numbers, after Sushi auntie betrayed it in Parliament and backstabbed it after switching off cameras. Hope NaMo remembers where his numbers came from, and remembers his supporters and opponents.


so, are you categorizing entire Telangana people a "opponents", here? so in essence, you are saying Namo should get his "revenge" on T for "betraying" BJP? I understand that you don't care for T or its grievances as much as SA, but that's your opinion. but now you are calling for "remembering opponents and supporters". this is language of revenge.


That is entirely your interpretation, and a tortured one at that, I might add. NaMo's supporters and `opponents' are not outside the BJP; they are within. And it is them that he should remember, which is what I alluded to in my post. Telangana, as a region, is entirely free to vote as it desires. I have no qualms about that. If they want another spell of INC rule, or replace it with TRS, it is entirely their business. If you read through all my old posts, my ill will has never been for Telangana; it has been for Telangana BJP, which I hold in total contempt.

I don't understand why supporting T is "betraying" SA, just as I don't get you advocating revenge on a region. I've said before that T might go through a INC-TRS sweep simply because of the emotional pull of getting the State after so long.


If my memory serves me correctly, I have said, right from the start, that I supported the formation of Telangana. I just do not support how it was created, nor the proprieties that were ignored during its formation. SeemaAndhra's concerns should have been addressed before Telangana was created, and if you look back throughout my posts, I have always advocated this particular line. I cannot see how requiring addressing SeemaAndhra's concerns constitute an anti-Telangana line.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby vishnua » 08 May 2014 06:18

Folks

We need info from the other side i.. e from Jagan camp

If there is anything available then that would great

I think it is a sweep favoring TDP+BJP

Unless the election boxes are manipulated after the election

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Rony » 08 May 2014 06:29

vishnu a wrote: Unless the election boxes are manipulated after the election


That is the biggest worry. The way Jagan and YCP candidates are being confident that it is their sweep, i have a nagging feeling that they already prepared the ground for manipulation after elections.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby gpati » 08 May 2014 06:29

Those who voted for Fan at state also voted for Kamalam at center. Even 50% of SCs in Godavari districts voted for TDP-NDA.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby kmkraoind » 08 May 2014 07:06

Image
From Eenadu.

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby Mort Walker » 08 May 2014 07:44

Politics Party guy is saying that Jagan has won 24/25 seats in LS and 155/175 in Assembly!

I am afraid that should the NDA have a majority it will be slim at best. I fail to see how people of Andhra could vote for an EJ like Jagan, but oh well...

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Re: AP Politics and runup to 2014 General elections

Postby bhavani » 08 May 2014 07:52

Mort Walker wrote:Politics Party guy is saying that Jagan has won 24/25 seats in LS and 155/175 in Assembly!

I am afraid that should the NDA have a majority it will be slim at best. I fail to see how people of Andhra could vote for an EJ like Jagan, but oh well...



Politicsparty and greatandhra are super supporters of Jagan and are completely biased. There is no Jagan Wave or anything. People did not vote wholesale for EJ. In fact i think TDP might scrape through and for the next government


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