Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 May 2014 14:11

I wonder why MB has to act like she is acting. Is it her of ideas to develop Bengal or insecurity that she has to resort to cheap tactics otherwise she was the darling of both UPA and NDA.
Maybe it is the only way to survive in Bengali politics

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 12 May 2014 14:14

Retweeted by mamta
Siddharth Goyal ‏@sidgoyal1 1h

Forget BJP, the TMC is not allowing CPM on 70 booths in Jadavpur. It's an emergency. @sidharthnsingh

sum · Post by **sum** » 12 May 2014 14:18

^^ Twitter quoting CSDS reports about Jassu winning Barmer and Seemandhra being too close to call

sum · Post by **sum** » 12 May 2014 14:23

^^

CSDS 2014 Exit Poll: Teasers: Despite an impressive rainbow alliance, NDA fails in TN. BJP may need @superstarrajini to trump Amma in 2016.

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 12 May 2014 14:27

One thought came to my mind about the "Stop Modi at any Cost" campaign being run. How old is this? Last time i heard this first was Karan Thapar blurting it out 5 years ago, the seed was germinated as voices had started emanating that Modi is PM material. By 2010 Kanchan Dada at least predicted with conviction Modi will be sworn in as PM in 2014. What if the plan to Stop Modi was implemented. Bringing a Coal scam accused as CEC was first step. But it could also be important to take in key BJP leadership at that time. The hardened postures that we saw on Modi's appointment may have been the implementation of part 1 of the plan. Didn't work. Yet no one thought without a key ally like JDU things would work out for Modi and that Modi wouldn't make it past the 180 stage. After Hunkaar rally in Patna it was obvious this was not working too. By Jan rising numbers still didn't alarm the dispensation that is not known for being alert and conscientious on the job, but by Feb/ Mar there were alarm bells as Paswan and many other allies joined Modi. Cases were flung at Modi, snoopgate became the largest talking point on MSM. The bias against Modi spewed on MSM jolted even neutral kind of people, funds to AAP grew in desperation, Kejriwal was given more TV time than Modi and Rahul at that time on a 24x7 basis to keep BJP numbers less than 200 in any way. Yet by early April even that wasn't working. It was now time to give a last fillip to cases against Modi, but it was obviously getting too late for that..so the working of electoral rolls. Skimming 2-3% of voter lists as in Maharashtra. Possibly in many other locations they are skimming marked strong holds of BJP clean off, or even EVMs are being switched. We cannot know of these possibilities as yet. Maybe they are working, or may be it's too late even for that. The next step was trying to disqualify Modi in some way, but then the groundswell is such any such move may result in riots and it would be untenable for UPA 3. So maybe they are back to allowing massive rigging/ switching in WB, UP and elsewhere to keep NDA well below 230. Some of the happenings seem to indicate there is a "stop Modi at any cost" plan that is much beyond the pale of the democratic process. Yet i can only say we can only know on the 16th.

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 12 May 2014 14:27

Akhilesh Yadav laptop inside booth in sayedraja, Chandauli

a_bharat · Post by **a_bharat** » 12 May 2014 14:32

VikasRaina wrote:I wonder why MB has to act like she is acting. Is it her of ideas to develop Bengal or insecurity that she has to resort to cheap tactics otherwise she was the darling of both UPA and NDA.
Maybe it is the only way to survive in Bengali politics

She was always like that. My earliest impression of her was that of her being a sycophantic member of IG (or was it RG?)'s shouting brigade.

Does Mamata Banerjee have double standards over refugees from Bangladesh?

For Mamata Banerjee, the expression and the lexicon of violence and confrontation is what come most easily and naturally. From wildly dancing on the bonnet of the venerable Jaya Prakash Narayan’s Ambassador in Kolkata at the height of the anti-Indira Gandhi movement, to goading Bengal youth Congress activists to their death in police firing in 1993, to encouraging her MLA’s to unleash mayhem on the floor of the West Bengal Assembly, to repeatedly abusing the Speaker’s Chair in Parliament, Mamata Banerjee’s politics is essentially of the street level dimension – a dimension which endows its practitioner only with the capacity to name-call, to abusively react and to blow hot air balloons that threaten of dire consequences.

The latest rope-tying remark Mamata made against Narendra Modi is thus, in tune with her irretrievably reductionist world-view – it hardly merits a counter, but instead points to how she has singularly contributed to lowering the level of discourse in national politics today. But that is what she has always excelled in.

Ironically, when she hurled a sheaf of papers at the Speaker’s Chair in August 2005 and hurled invectives at CS Atwal, then Deputy Speaker who was presiding over the House, Mamata’s main complaint and grouse was that she was being disallowed to raise the “subject of illegal Bangladeshi migration”. Mamata fumed saying, “Illegal migrants from Bangladesh are also part of the voters’ list in West Bengal. The state government has done nothing about it. Therefore, the issue must be discussed.”

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 May 2014 14:34

WB goes from Communist goonda raj to Islamist goonda raj under TMC!

niran · Post by **niran** » 12 May 2014 14:37

the score line by data collected 30 minutes ago
in UP BJP 15 others 3
Azamgarh. Jaunpur Machlibazar hangs in balance.

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 12 May 2014 14:54

niran ji will come and get tratment from you if the final numbers turn up within 80% of what you have mentioned

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 May 2014 14:58

Jamz,

! But after the polls which Congresswallah or politico will want to be seen at Diggy's nuptials! If he wants a crowd,he'll have to knock at 10 Janpath,but will the ex-empress open the door for him?

Mamta has gone potty.Power has gone to her head so much that she has become a deranged dictator in derilium ,ranting and raving at anyone who has a contrarian view,like a female fascist frothing at the mouth,venting her spleen in shrill screams,like one of the witches in Macbeth.Her denouement is assured."Whom the Gods wish to destroy,they first make mad".

Mamta,Mayawathi and "Madam" JJ,are "the three mummy-gos" of Indian politics,who have had high hopes of wresting power at the centre,with Madam JJ's lust for the throne ,with her gyrating partymen and women singing her refrain Kollywood style,an open farce.Mayawati's obsession with stone elephants and hurling verbal stones at her opponents is well matched by Madam JJ's penchant for her annual elephant camps to "reinvigorate" them.A freudian angle to it anyone?! Mamta's desire to "rope" Modi ,imprison him,and unleashing her stormtroopers SA style makes one wonder whether she has a sado-masochistic streak in her genes,and is the female incarnation off Ernest Rohm,who Hitler had to bump off because he was too vicious even for the Nazis adnd suspected of plotting a coup!

sum · Post by **sum** » 12 May 2014 15:06

X-post:

sum wrote:And the CSDS leaks keep coming:
Retweeted by Shrin™
Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 2m

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: TN Vote share: ADMK: 29, DMK: 26, NDA: 16

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: Punjab VS: BJP+: 40, INC: 29, AAP: 21

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: Haryana VS: Will O P Dankar trump D @DeependerSHooda ? : BJP: 38, INC: 24, INLD: 20

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 22m

CSDS 2014 Exit Poll: Teasers: IH have some good reason to thank Aaaptards for. AAP splits the anti-SAD.NDA in Pun despite huge anti-incumb

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 1m

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: Maharashtra Vote Share: NaMo to ride the Kokan railways to power. BJP+: 44, UPA: 34, MNS: 3

sum · Post by **sum** » 12 May 2014 15:14

Sorry but cannot resist:

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 35s

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: Delhi VS: BJP: 45, INC: 17, AAP: 31. Congrats @M_Lekhi

Retweeted by PragmaticIndian
Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 2m

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: Karnataka Voteshare: BJP+ 38, INC: 43, JDS: 14. Remember the Gallagher Index while seat conversion.

Laissez-faire ‏@FCBtheChamps 51s

CSDS 2014: Saffronized: Bihar VS: No Lalu did not stop the Modi wave: NDA: 43 UPA: 29 JDU: 15

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 12 May 2014 15:20

You are all kufrs. NaMo will lose onlee.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 15:25

Chalo bhailog, start the festivities. #AbKiBaarModiSarkar
Kaafir onka zamaana hai.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2014 15:30

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 12m

Delhi 7 / 7 ...

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 May 2014 15:34

Here are the bookie's odds a couple of days ago.The Sensex however is breaking new ground,soaring to new heights in expectation of a strong BJP/Modi win.

Lok Sabha polls 2014: Bookies cap BJP's maximum tally at close to 244
By Raghav Ohri, ET Bureau | 10 May, 2014,

CHANDIGARH: While BJP's PM candidate Narendra Modi asserts that the saffronBSE 4.84 % party will form the "strongest government since Rajiv Gandhi's government", bookies aren't confident of it wining a clear majority.

While Narendra Modi remains the favourite for the post of prime minister, they do not think the BJP would get over 272 seats, which would give it a clear majority in the Lok Sabha and an opportunity to form a government without much interference from allies. The last time a party got absolute majority was the Congress under Rajiv Gandhi in 1984.

According to the bookies who work in the illegal market as betting is banned in India, somewhere close to 244 is the maximum seats that the BJP will be able to secure on its own — a number that is likely large enough for the party to form the next government with support from partners in the National Democratic Alliance. And, the punters are offering a rate of 242-244 for the BJP to form a coalition government.

Any accurate bet on the BJP securing less than 242 seats or more than 244 will fetch the bettor the amount betted if his prediction comes true. For instance, if someone bets Rs 1 lakh on the BJP getting less than 242 seats, he will earn Rs 1 lakh if that turns out to be the case after the May 16 vote counting. Interestingly, bookies aren't offering any rates on the BJP securing 272 seats.

Finding little conviction in the much rumoured "160 club" of the BJP — that some BJP leaders are working to limit the party's tally at 160 or fewer to keep Modi away from the PM's post — bookies hold that it will comfortably cross the 180 mark. For, that the odds are 4:6 — a correct call on BJP achieving 180 seats will return just Rs 4,000 for Rs 1 lakh put on the table. On the contrary, a bet of Rs 6,000 on BJP not bagging 180 will earn Rs 1 lakh if the poll outcome matches the prediction.

Last month, ET was the first to report that Modi was .was the bookies' favourite to become PM. Until mid-April, betting Rs 1 lakh correctly on Modi for the PM post would have earned the bettor Rs 25,000. As the campaigning picked up, the amount reached Rs 30,000. A correct bet against Modi becoming the PM would earn Rs 1 lakh for each Rs 35,000 put in. The betting rate on Modi has now returned to Rs 25,000.

For the Varanasi seat, Modi is the clear favourite. A bet of Rs 1 lakh on Modi winning from Varanasi will fetch the bettor Rs 25,000. Anybody betting Rs 30,000 on AAP's Arvind Kejriwal or any other opponents of Modi will get Rs 1 lakh in return if the bet turns out to be accurate.

Bookies are confident that Rahul Gandhi will win easily from Amethi. They have stopped accepting bets for the Amethi seat.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst ..

http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2014/05/12/m ... lls-today/
Markets surge as Indian exit polls are awaited after close of polls today

The Indian markets are reacting to rumours and “inside information” as to what the exit polls will reveal when they are published later today. The Election Commission has confirmed that the results of exit polls – which have been carried out over the last 6 weeks of polling and are prepared and waiting to be released – can be released after the polls close at 1830 local time (1500 CET) on the last day of the last phase of voting today.

Exit polls don’t have a very good record in predicting the result of Indian elections – especially when they are extrapolated. But we have the peculiar situation of markets being driven by the expectations of what the exit polls will say and where the actual results will not be known till Friday. Capital inflow from overseas has been particularly high and there is a feeling that this cannot be just on the advice of local investors without any special knowledge. There is a suggestion – not at all implausible – that some large investors and their overseas partners may well have carried out their own, private, exit polls. And, the story goes, these show that Narendra Modi and the BJP will get close to an absolute majority.

On Friday the BSE Sensex rose over 3% and so far today has risen another 2+% - over 1000 points in a day and a half of trading.
BSE Sensex 12th May noon

BSE Sensex 12th May noon (Reuters)

NDTV:

It seems that investors are betting that the BJP-led NDA will emerge victorious on May 16, when results are announced, analysts say.

“There is a lot of political hope that has got baked in valuations. Markets are factoring numbers close to 230-240 seats for the BJP alone, and if that is the case, the NDA will get a majority on its own. That will lead to pro-growth, right of central, stable formation, which is enthusing for the investors,” said Manishi Raychaudhri, strategist and head of research at BNP Paribas Securities.

Polls have consistently shown the BJP and its prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi ahead, raising expectations that the opposition party, which is seen by markets as being more investor- and business-friendly, will either win or come close to an outright majority. The surprising part, however, is markets seem to be factoring in the best possible scenario (stable government led by Mr Modi) even before exit poll results, due later in the day.

One possibility why markets have not waited for exit poll results might have to do with speculation that big investors have already got a whiff of what results would be. In fact, overseas investors bought shares worth Rs. 1,268.78 crore in the cash market on Friday, their biggest purchase since March 28. Friday’s gains came at a time when markets had shed 2 per cent after hitting a record high of April 25. Clearly, smart money had some information.

Deven Choksey, managing director of brokerage KR Choksey told NDTV that somewhere from the media, numbers suggesting that the BJP will get 260-270 seats, came out. It was in circulation on social media and markets took advantage of that, he said.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 15:36

pankajs wrote:
Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 12m

Delhi 7 / 7 ...

Delhi 7/7 is a high probability number. If you see CSDS percentages, 5foty3 waala was very conservative.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2014 15:36

Deepak Singh ‏@smarket 50m

AAP has split Muslim votes in important Lok Sabha seats. I don't understand why they only campaign in minority areas ~ Ghulam Nabi Azad

Minhaz Merchant ‏@minhazmerchant 36m

Modi reportedly leading both Kejri & Rai by 4:1 margins. Muslim vote surge likely > 4pm though unlikely to alter result

Firstpost ‏@firstpostin 1h

Congress VP Rahul Gandhi gets time till 15 May to reply to EC notice on his poll remarks - Times Now

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2014 15:45

Press Trust of India ‏@PTI_News 4m

Defence Ministry recommends Lt Gen Dalbir Singh Suhag for next Army Chief; Recommendation sent to Appointments Committee of Cabinet: Sources

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 May 2014 15:46

@iKabirBedi
Ironic: In the world's greatest election only one man has said he's running to be Prime Minister. #Election2014 #India

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 May 2014 15:47

pankajs wrote:
Press Trust of India ‏@PTI_News 4m

Defence Ministry recommends Lt Gen Dalbir Singh Suhag for next Army Chief; Recommendation sent to Appointments Committee of Cabinet: Sources

this should be challenged in SC straight way

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 May 2014 15:51

RajeshA wrote:
Rahul M wrote:voted. very little crowd. but lots of violence reports coming in.

even hardcore TMC supporters are having 2nd thoughts due to her and her party's low behaviour. CAPF's are sitting in kolkata while rural areas are being guarded by WBP.
Assembly elections would be interesting! Whole WB would look like occupied area.

CSDS vote share figures out at https://twitter.com/FCBtheChamps

if they claim WB BJP VS is 15%, it's definitely higher since people would hide their real sympathies.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 12 May 2014 15:52

Cong spokie declaring (on times now) that INC has decided not to participate in any TV discussion on exit polls owing to their unreliable record in the past.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 12 May 2014 15:54

IndraD wrote:http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 988372.cms

EC trying to disqualify Smriti Irani

Very slow voting in intense heat in UP, women collapse

This is a pathetic blackmail attempt by congis to let go RG off the hook for his presence in evm booths.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2014 16:09

Subramanian Swamy ‏@Swamy39 May 11

@dattuvarma10 @India272 : Modi is winning Varanasi seat by a margin of over 4 lakhs. 17% of the Muslims voting for him. Sibal: quit beefing!

Pawan Durani ‏@PawanDurani 20m

From 5 PM , News channel will only raise your anxiety . As per directives of EC , exit poll results can be shown only after 6:30 PM

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 May 2014 16:14

If EC is trying to disqualify Smriti that only means BJP has been a challenge there for Rahul, re KViswas no one cares.
Letting Rahul off hook inspite of him booth capturing & neutralizing Smriti !! Audacious & dastardly !!
How can EC be punished by new govt?
Coal scam??
The last thing Modi shd do is let these low lives escape easily

Denis · Post by **Denis** » 12 May 2014 16:23

Dr. Praveen Patil @5Forty3
Here is the theory; the % of votes Modi gets in Varanasi = No: of BJP seats in UP. Current projection for Modi in Kashi = 54%

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2014 16:35

pratul sharma ‏@pratulsharma8 1h

Why is Manmohan Singh govt making big appointments in finance and commerce ministries when 90 hrs remain for new govt: Ravi Shankar Prasad.

Not that it matters in this case .. In case of baboos and advisers the new government can shuffle the deck if it so desires.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 May 2014 16:40

exit poll on abp news

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 12 May 2014 16:43

IndraD wrote:exit poll on abp news

Its not 6:30 yet

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 12 May 2014 16:50

warming up!
BTW entire family of Bismillah Khan missing on voters list

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 May 2014 16:53

IndraD wrote:warming up!
BTW entire family of Bismillah Khan missing on voters list

"Easy come easy go - will you let me go
Bismillah! No - we will not let you go - let him go
Bismillah! We will not let you go - let him go
Bismillah! We will not let you go - let me go"

Queen

member_27987 · Post by **member_27987** » 12 May 2014 16:56

Is it time to start the results thread yet? Maybe we can start tracking various exit polls?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 12 May 2014 16:58

EswarPrakash wrote:Is it time to start the results thread yet? Maybe we can start tracking various exit polls?

Exit Polls are not results!

member_27987 · Post by **member_27987** » 12 May 2014 17:00

RajeshA wrote:
EswarPrakash wrote:Is it time to start the results thread yet? Maybe we can start tracking various exit polls?
Exit Polls are not results!

OK

member_28025 · Post by **member_28025** » 12 May 2014 17:12

SC issues notice to EC over plea seeking ban on booth-wise poll results

http://www.firstpost.com/india/sc-issue ... 19297.html

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 May 2014 17:21

Nageshks, Muraliravi, fanne ShyamSP, Once results start coming in we should analyses each state at a micro granular level for future use.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 May 2014 17:23

Shamlee wrote:SC issues notice to EC over plea seeking ban on booth-wise poll results

http://www.firstpost.com/india/sc-issue ... 19297.html

Well I am all for it. It give Political parties way too much information to harrass and target selective deletion in collusion with pliant officials.
Earlier TN Shesan has introduced mixing of ballot papers so that polling station wise data is not known. Parties are entitled to constituency wise data only and EC had introduced another form with indicated booth wise tally.

Shanmukh · Post by **Shanmukh** » 12 May 2014 17:23

ramana wrote:Nageshks, Muraliravi, fanne ShyamSP, Once results start coming in we should analyses each state at a micro granular level for future use.

Thy will be done, Ramana-ji