Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 12 May 2014 22:09

interesting to see congress got it right for both them self and bjp in 2009

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 22:09

Supratik wrote:For the first time my dhoti is shivering seeing chanakya nos positively just imagining the possibilities for jingos. Is this even real? Or are they on steroids? Did BJP pay them money?

Disha has been having these orgas...., I mean this kind of dhoti shivering for quite some time now.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 12 May 2014 22:09

Kweschun, what is going on in UR Anathamurthy's head?

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 22:11

IndraD wrote:he he my cousin from AAP legal cell is khamosh and posting how Cvoter was bought, all exit polls are bogus etc etc

Whole election is sbotaged and bought over by REliance and Adani.

negi · Post by **negi** » 12 May 2014 22:12

My numbers for NDA are about 220 ish.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 22:15

I was in a meeting today and I am the primary speaker. All hell it is on my table with my phone buzzing with texts and WhatsApp stuff like something happened. The folks here in Massa think something might have hit the world or me.

. In the breaktime I read this Chankyaa and go back and see what the entity India will if that poll comes true. I have to check my heart beat and hope it does not stop out of joy if such a poll comes true.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 May 2014 22:16

ramana wrote:So what TN has done is take ~40 seats from NDA and put in Congress bucket.

No Way, Amma will align with NaMo i.e. if NaMo needs it.. That in the interest of TN. She is too practical and pragmatic though mercurial. No way she would go with Congis \nd there is no turd front.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 May 2014 22:17

Muppalla wrote:
muraliravi wrote: 2009 exit polls were not wrong, all major exit polls said UPA will get between 185 and 205 and NDA between 165 and 175.

CSDS said UPA 195-210, NDA 145-160. So almost all got the wind right, the intensity was off.
The rising party will always get more than projected and losing party always loses more than projected. Check back few exit polls and that is the case 95% of the times. .....

The guys who can see the intesity of the wave and locations of the wave predicts good weather. I think he may be such a pollster.

member_23365 · Post by **member_23365** » 12 May 2014 22:17

Something seriously wrong with timesnow.
With lackluster BJP candidates and Congi turncoats and strong show by INLD, If BJP is getting 8 seats in Haryana its not namo wave its TsuNamo.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 12 May 2014 22:19

Kati wrote: WB number is believable.
Yesterday everywhere people clamped their mouth about who they were voting for.
This is very unusual for chatty bongs when it comes to politics.
So people are predicting that Lotus will bloom unexpectedly in WB.

BJP at 24%, Left at 21% is just crazy. I will not believe it unless I see it on the 16th. Also UP at 70 breaks all sense (90% strike rate).
They have overestimated. By how much will be clear on the 16th. I will down a vodka bottle if they are right on the 16th.

rgsrini · Post by **rgsrini** » 12 May 2014 22:19

^^Chanakya,
Saar, Please don't try to predict Amma's behavior... Even Amma doesn't know what she will do with all the seats she gets. What do you think her behavior will be if congi offers her PMship...

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 12 May 2014 22:20

negi wrote:My numbers for NDA are about 220 ish.

Should I start crying?

sivab · Post by **sivab** » 12 May 2014 22:21

Amit shah was on Headlines Today just now. Very relaxed and confident. Said 50+ in UP and 300+ on the whole. Talked about looming assembly elections also.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 May 2014 22:21

Against all odds, if NaMo gets BJP a simple majority, then it is larger than 416. The odds Rajiv faced was zilch.. whereas Modi was the david against the kangrez evil Goliath.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 22:21

Singha wrote:Kerala it seems had handed all 20 seats to congis even after Emergency.

truly our highly educated and intellectual state thinks in a different way!

It has 45+ percentage of minorities.

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 May 2014 22:22

rgsrini wrote:^^Chanakya,
Saar, Please don't try to predict Amma's behavior... Even Amma doesn't know what she will do with all the seats she gets. What do you think her behavior will be if congi offers her PMship...

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 May 2014 22:23

SwamyG wrote:
Singha wrote:Kerala it seems had handed all 20 seats to congis even after Emergency.

truly our highly educated and intellectual state thinks in a different way!
It has 45+ percentage of minorities.

and the rest are en-gelfed-more-ons

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 12 May 2014 22:24

chaanakya wrote:
rgsrini wrote:^^Chanakya,
Saar, Please don't try to predict Amma's behavior... Even Amma doesn't know what she will do with all the seats she gets. What do you think her behavior will be if congi offers her PMship...

"nadu velagana mari than"

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 22:24

Supratik wrote:
Kati wrote: WB number is believable.
Yesterday everywhere people clamped their mouth about who they were voting for.
This is very unusual for chatty bongs when it comes to politics.
So people are predicting that Lotus will bloom unexpectedly in WB.

BJP at 24%, Left at 21% is just crazy. I will not believe it unless I see it on the 16th. Also UP at 70 breaks all sense (90% strike rate).
They have overestimated. By how much will be clear on the 16th. I will down a vodka bottle if they are right on the 16th.

This is crow eating moment for me. Even can't dream at any point of time.

Patni · Post by **Patni** » 12 May 2014 22:27

The statistician himself said in one of the channel how the margin of error always works against the winner and favours towards losers. That is to say in the model/method used to predict seat number from vote percentage are inherently designed to give a statistical mean probability and so if the error is given as say +/- 1% then its more likely that predicted number is 1% less for the winner and 1% higher for the loser.

disha · Post by **disha** » 12 May 2014 22:31

SwamyG wrote:
Supratik wrote:For the first time my dhoti is shivering seeing chanakya nos positively just imagining the possibilities for jingos. Is this even real? Or are they on steroids? Did BJP pay them money?
Disha has been having these orgas...., I mean this kind of dhoti shivering for quite some time now.

What saar, why you worried about my orgas...? Didn't you have any -

- that you do not know the difference between that and exhilarating dhoti-shivering? !!!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 12 May 2014 22:35

Next four days will be hell to focus at work.

KLP Dubey · Post by **KLP Dubey** » 12 May 2014 22:37

muraliravi wrote:I will also caution against using timesnow numbers on Assam, impossible to imagine BJP getting 8 of the 14. Surely cong will do much better.

Somebody on the ground in Assam had posted at the time that it would be 8/14.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 22:38

Singha wrote:Next four days will be hell to focus at work.

You tell me. I am already having such a situation and my boss is pulling me to solve some crisis into some big conf room and the folks from BRF call me, text me. I am taking Wed, Thu, Fri off. Too much stress to handle.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 12 May 2014 22:39

SwamyG wrote:
Singha wrote:Kerala it seems had handed all 20 seats to congis even after Emergency.

truly our highly educated and intellectual state thinks in a different way!
It has 45+ percentage of minorities.

If BJP had not contested, Left would have won hands down. BJP split the hindu vote so badly. But anyway, neither cong nor left will support BJP, so no point in withdrawing from the contest.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 May 2014 22:41

AAP's projections : (not all from esit polling)
http://www.target272.com/

cong predictions

James B · Post by **James B** » 12 May 2014 22:42

Something interesting from FristPost

According to an intelligence report commissioned by Naveen Patnaik himself (a copy of which is with Firstpost), the BJD is set win just 6 out of the 21 Lok Sabha seats in Odisha and 77 (+/-3) in the assembly, just marginally above the magic number of 74 - the Congress is projected to win 35 seats and the BJP 23.

Body language apart, there have been other tell-tale signs that something is not quite right with Naveen. First, he left for the national capital on April 25 on what was originally supposed to be a five-day visit, but was later extended by another four days. Till late, no one from his party or his office has been able to explain the purpose of the visit, which turned out to be the longest absence from the state capital in his 14 years as chief minister. Then, in a move that appeared even more inexplicable, the chief minister left on another week-long visit to New Delhi on Friday, barely five days after his return from the national capital – in what has been officially described as an ‘unofficial’ visit.

http://www.firstpost.com/politics/navee ... 17203.html

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 12 May 2014 22:49

I thought Exit polls will calm me down. It only got worse

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 12 May 2014 22:52

Ok, Vivek,
I am not sure you saw this
Mulayam Singh is losing in Azamgad to BJP's ramakant Yadav
writing is on the wall for thugs and scamsters

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 12 May 2014 22:55

Vijayamma in Vizag, Mullayam in UP, PAPPU in Amethi and ofcourse Kujli losing deposit will be happiest day of my life.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 12 May 2014 22:55

https://twitter.com/indiantweeter/statu ... to/1/large
Saving for posterity

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 22:56

Anantha wrote:Ok, Vivek,
I am not sure you saw this
Mulayam Singh is losing in Azamgad to BJP's ramakant Yadav
writing is on the wall for thugs and scamsters

This is not a big news and it is predictable. Mulayam did a sooi sooi by choosing that seat and Ramakant Yadav is big shot there.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 12 May 2014 22:58

Good or bad - TWIW.

When Modi as PM was discussed, an unnamed source told press that INC will get about 50 and not even 90. TodayChankya's number is what that unnamed source six months ago predicted.

Sonugn · Post by **Sonugn** » 12 May 2014 23:03

Anantha wrote:https://twitter.com/indiantweeter/statu ... to/1/large
Saving for posterity

So what is he going to do, other than have a burnol moment.

ShyamSP · Post by **ShyamSP** » 12 May 2014 23:03

vivek.rao wrote:Vijayamma in Vizag, Mullayam in UP, PAPPU in Amethi and ofcourse Kujli losing deposit will be happiest day of my life.

You should wish for elimination of Congress from ballot paper/EVM button.

Rest are distractions and Helicopters are there. As for Bibleamma, Rama Gopal Varma is readying for sequel.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 May 2014 23:04

He is going to use it on himself when he can't take it anymore on the 16th IMHO.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 May 2014 23:08

looking at the 2004 predictions and actual result : getting the heebie geebies !

complete break from election thing till 16th.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 May 2014 23:09

Muppalla wrote:
Singha wrote:Next four days will be hell to focus at work.
You tell me. I am already having such a situation and my boss is pulling me to solve some crisis into some big conf room and the folks from BRF call me, text me. I am taking Wed, Thu, Fri off. Too much stress to handle.

Eye am taking Fridin off... Bakardi Bhajan starts at 7PM 5/15 EST

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 12 May 2014 23:11

http://navbharattimes.indiatimes.com/lo ... 028882.cms

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 May 2014 23:14

Why do people in power trust intelligence reports about polls when even exit polls can go for a toss ?
How do babus come up with their own surveys ? Has always intrigued me.