Re: Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 May 2014 23:15

Muppalla wrote:Good or bad - TWIW.

When Modi as PM was discussed, an unnamed source told press that INC will get about 50 and not even 90. TodayChankya's number is what that unnamed source six months ago predicted.

Blasphemer... And yet you were causing so much takleef for believers past six months

James B · Post by **James B** » 12 May 2014 23:15

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 May 2014 23:16

Anantha wrote:https://twitter.com/indiantweeter/statu ... to/1/large

Famous last words by the clown

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 12 May 2014 23:17

Arnob saying in Raj mafia will get 14 and BJP 10. Stupidity are its best.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 12 May 2014 23:19

I read that this election has the highest turnout EVER. So can we really dismiss a Today's Chanakya type result. Its not like all these people are coming out to vote for the congress. Apart from AP(SA+TG) no other state has any special reason to vote in such high numbers. Even CSDS which many as amongst the better agencies has given the NDA 40+% vote share overall. So numbers like 340 for NDA should not seem like out of the world.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 12 May 2014 23:32

Does any one have a table that shows what was predicted by each of these agencies in 2009 and how they tallied with actual results.

Chanakya too..

Raju Das @rajudasonline

Exit poll result of Today's Chanakya in 2009 LS election was closest to actual result, gave UPA 250 & NDA 183

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 23:32

chaanakya wrote:Dorrnob has cooked up the figure of 249 for NaMo and persistently asking the question "is NaMo there?" "who is going to support him" and how congress can get there with 149. What a sorry spectacle?

Moronob was one of the last to give out the total figure. He wanted to milk this for 250 hours, so he kept giving state by state, region by region. He ignored the fact that the total figures were out from almost all the other agencies/channels. It looked very stupid.

People are likely to turn the TV off after the initial numbers - especially if NDA is already projected to go past 272. If NDA is projected to get just around 200, then it will truly send dhoti shiver, so it is best that the exit poll number is 10-15 below the 272 mark. Lots of discussion and air time possible.

But 240-250 number is quite good for NDA. It is close to our GJP as well.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 23:33

kmkraoind wrote:
abhijitm wrote:ndtv is not showing exit polls because it is congress mouthpiece?

So that they can milk the air time and get as many eye balls as possible.

RamaY · Post by **RamaY** » 12 May 2014 23:38

Narayana Rao wrote:Arnob saying in Raj mafia will get 14 and BJP 10. Stupidity are its best.

Dorknob has nothing to lose. If rumors are correct he is going to change his bath rooms from timesnow to another location.

Now if he Magik-Al-EVM happens, Dorknob will become new nishan-e-radia of Al-India. If the Majik boxes fail to deliver then he will blame tayimsnow psephologists.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 12 May 2014 23:39

SwamyG wrote: So that they can milk the air time and get as many eye balls as possible.

Naah...UndiTV mathematicians and psephologist take about 2 days to calculate the mean of all the exist polls.

-M

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 23:42

krishnan wrote:Amma can help

If AIADMK is the 3rd largest party, she will first find out if she can become the PM, only if she cannot become the PM, will she support Modi. Sad a party with 30+ seats in Lok Sabha will send an individual to PM, while a party with 200+ cannot. Stupid system.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 12 May 2014 23:48

@vivek.rao

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 12 May 2014 23:54

SwamyG wrote:
krishnan wrote:Amma can help
If AIADMK is the 3rd largest party, she will first find out if she can become the PM, only if she cannot become the PM, will she support Modi. Sad a party with 30+ seats in Lok Sabha will send an individual to PM, while a party with 200+ cannot. Stupid system.

Do you think Amma would want to be PM and suffer fate of 'humble farmer'. Once you go black, you can't go back..She will lose TN CM'ship as well PN'ship in very short time.
I doubt any rational politician will take such chances unless one is two bit player like Lalu,NiKu or like MSY who has already coronated his progeny and now is position less.

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 23:55

disha wrote: What saar, why you worried about my orgas...? Didn't you have any - - that you do not know the difference between that and exhilarating dhoti-shivering? !!!

All said in jest onlee saar, no offense meant. NDA getting 300+ is historic. Gone are the days where Congress could get Rajiv-type of numbers. With so many regional parties, it is back to 1500BC. If Modi becomes the Rajah it is the first step, in order to become a Chakarvarthi/Samarat, he has to wait till 2019.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 12 May 2014 23:55

In prep for scrambling latest and greatest results, last time for the states, we largely relied on niran's link. Does anyone has that link?

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 12 May 2014 23:56

Dilbu wrote:
fanne wrote:The only reason to fudge an exit poll would be for EVM MAGIC!!
Egjactly.

Not necessarily. Money Plays a big role too.
Headlines Today channel of India Today group (& particularly that Rahul 'Me a Famous TV News Journalist' kid) fudged its Exit Poll for TN Assembly elections in 2011 and reported DMK+INC will get 90+ seats in 234 Seat Assembly. Final Result was DMK +INC = 33 seats and ADMK+ = 201 seats !!!.

Times Now seems to be on INC supplied steroids ... Last chunks of INC given money being used up to come up with a spectacularly bogus number of 148 for UPA ... with the worst figure being that INC will win 1 seat and BJP 0 seats in TN !!!!!. If any channel or media business group comes up with an opinion poll or exit poll that gives even 1 seat for INC in TN - then that is a big useless group whose work is not motivated by truth !. Ignore such exit polls.

amdavadi · Post by **amdavadi** » 12 May 2014 23:56

Funny thing is Chanakya's number matches with PP guy's number.....PP been predicting 333 for bjp+........

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 12 May 2014 23:57

Anantha wrote:https://twitter.com/indiantweeter/statu ... to/1/large
Saving for posterity

So the moron wants an armed revolution against Modi because Modi does not believe in Constitution. So people who instigate armed revolution, are they going to safe guard the Constitution. Silly. Why is this guy not in jail.

Virupaksha · Post by **Virupaksha** » 13 May 2014 00:01

the stupid times now group predicted 2 seats for left (it is contesting 1 seat) and no seat for MIM

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 13 May 2014 00:14

kejri has said
'agar modi se haar gya to rajneeti chhod dunga'
Let us remind him to hold on to his word.

SaraLax · Post by **SaraLax** » 13 May 2014 00:15

Thanthi TV's EXIT POLL Results for Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry (2 hours duration)

Exit Poll performed over a base of 32000 people.

Winning margins generally seen to have relatively reduced due to a minimum of 3 party contest if not more in almost all seats.

Some information :-
Probable ADMK Winning Seats count : 24
Probable DMK winning Seats count : 5
Probable NDA Winning Seats count : 4
Seats too Close to Call : 7 (With 5 slanting towards ADMK & 2 slanting towards NDA)

(Probable) NDA Winning Seats : 4 (and possibly 2 more)
Kanyakumari ( Good Chances for Pon.Radhakrishnan of BJP, ADMK coming 2nd, INC in 4th Position ),
Virudhunagar ( Very Strong Chance for VaiKo of MDMK, ADMK coming 2nd & Last time winning INC MP seen coming at 4th place ),
Dharmapuri ( Medium Chances for PMK victory ... probable margin seen to be ~3% votes more than ADMK ),
Pondicherry ( where AINRC - an NDA ally seems to be winning & chucking out current INC MP & Central Minister Mr.Narayanasamy ).

- Additional chances for NDA winning seen at Coimbatore(BJP vs ADMK), ThenKasi (MDMK vs ADMK) & Tuticorin (MDMK vs ADMK) but winning margins seen to be very thin.
- Further slimmer chances of NDA winning seen at South Chennai (BJP vs ADMK vs DMK) & Villupuram (DMDK vs ADMK). All these 5 seats coming under "too close to call" category.
- NDA not seen performing as well as was expected in Kongu region (West TN). NDA coming 2nd to ADMK in most seats but for Coimbatore.
- 'Captain' Vijaykanth's DMDK party seen to be getting zero seats ... sort of unlucky since he spread more information about Modi in rural TN , more than even local BJP cadre could. May probably be given a RS seat by BJP.

(Probable) Important Losers :
A.Raja of DMK (@ Nilgiris, ADMK seen winning thanks to last minute rejection of BJP candidate applications by EC)
T.R.Baalu of DMK (@ Thanjavur, ADMK seen slightly ahead with INC candidate cutting into more of DMK's votes)
Thirumavalavan of VCK in DMK combine(@ Chidambaram, Sitting MP & leader of Northern TN Dalit party of VCK seen losing by slight margin to ADMK)
Narayanasamy of INC (@ Pondicherry, seen losing to AINRC of NDA combine)
Krishnasamy of PT in DMK combine(@ ThenKasi, South TN Dalit party of PT seen coming 3rd and MDMK of NDA combine seen to be winning by very very slight margin)

Dayanidhi Maran of DMK seen winning @ Central Chennai.
Jagathrakshakan of DMK seen winning @ Sriperumbudur.
Thambidurai of ADMK seen winning @ Karur

- Karthi Chidambaram of INC seen coming 4th at Sivagangai. ADMK seen winning with DMK coming 2nd. BJP's H.Raja with 22% votes seen coming at 3rd in this seat.
- South Chennai seat, All 3 parties (ADMK, BJP & DMK) seen having chances to win with ADMK observed as slightly ahead.
- Not even one seat in TN where INC is seen coming at 3rd place. Might end up in 2nd position at Pondicherry alone.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 May 2014 00:25

SwamyG wrote:
Anantha wrote:https://twitter.com/indiantweeter/statu ... to/1/large
Saving for posterity
So the moron wants an armed revolution against Modi because Modi does not believe in Constitution. So people who instigate armed revolution, are they going to safe guard the Constitution. Silly. Why is this guy not in jail.

He should not be in jail. Let him express him opinion. No one should go to jail for expressing their opinion of any sorts on Twitter/FB or even in public unless they create a law and order situation. Actually Namo should strive for an India with full freedom of speech just like the US.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 13 May 2014 00:29

amdavadi wrote:Funny thing is Chanakya's number matches with PP guy's number.....PP been predicting 333 for bjp+........

And niran's. The three most reliable ones.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 May 2014 01:04

kapilrdave wrote:
amdavadi wrote:Funny thing is Chanakya's number matches with PP guy's number.....PP been predicting 333 for bjp+........
And niran's. The three most reliable ones.

Oh my god, if BJP gets 300 on its own, I dont know what to say. I mean some sweeping decisions on economy and many other contentious issues can be made. This govt will have power like the congress of the 60's.

SagarAg · Post by **SagarAg** » 13 May 2014 01:13

muraliravi wrote:
kapilrdave wrote: And niran's. The three most reliable ones.
Oh my god, if BJP gets 300 on its own, I dont know what to say. I mean some sweeping decisions on economy and many other contentious issues can be made. This govt will have power like the congress of the 60's.

Dhoti Shiver onlee.....
Listening to this on loop.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 13 May 2014 01:15

So 2009 worst case NDA was 175 and they ended up with 159 ie -16. 2014 worst case for Nda is 249 - 20 gives 229. So that should be the worst case for Nda with Evm magic. If that's the primary purpose of exit poll is to prepare ground for Evm magic, only doorknob is doing it. Undie tv may follow on we'd and will give new baseline for low. So 2 step process for preparing ground. If Evm magic is to happen, expect undie to go below 249 so absolute worst case is still 210+. All theory but that is the only thing I am worried about now

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 13 May 2014 01:16

Applying GJP to the current exit poll results, NDA is going to bag 288 seats.
Baas, lock kar diya jai.

Mihaylo · Post by **Mihaylo** » 13 May 2014 01:19

Santosh wrote:So 2009 worst case NDA was 175 and they ended up with 159 ie -16. 2014 worst case for Nda is 249 - 20 gives 229. So that should be the worst case for Nda with Evm magic. If that's the primary purpose of exit poll is to prepare ground for Evm magic, only doorknob is doing it. Undie tv may follow on we'd and will give new baseline for low. So 2 step process for preparing ground. If Evm magic is to happen, expect undie to go below 249 so absolute worst case is still 210+. All theory but that is the only thing I am worried about now

Quite interesting....does anybody have any inside knowledge that the BJP top brass is aware of the EVM magic possibility. It would be foolish to not factor this possibility in.

Dhoti Shiver only...

-M

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 13 May 2014 01:23

Elections end, but President thinking out of the box

The CONGi anti-national scums are not giving up hope yet! They will keep scheming until the last vote is counted and will use every institution at their disposal to stop Modi whether it is EC or President.

f the National Democratic Alliance does not get a clear majority of 272 seats, India is in for many twists and turns. Wait for unimaginable surprises and trendsetting events that nobody has scripted, yet.

The election is over, but it is only the intermission now. As we know, in a parliamentary democracy, the other half of the story involves Rashtrapati Bhavan and the new government registering an actual majority inside the Lok Sabha.

Rashtrapati Bhavan on Raisina Hill is busy with meetings after meetings.

India's best legal brains, including Fali S Nariman and Soli Sorabjee, are being contacted.

In New Delhi, inside the political parties, inside Rashtrapati Bhavan and inside government as well, different options are being weighed, various scenarios are being anticipated, and possible responses being debated

Congress Working Committee managers are busy in necessary formalities like thanking Prime Minister Manmohan Singh for his 'contribution in nation building'. They are also keeping the communication lines open with President Mukherjee.

Post demitting office, Dr Singh will be worried about his own prestige. The 2G spectrum case and coal scam case are at a crucial stage and he would like to see that, without State power backing him anymore, he can withstand the legal fallout as both scams reach a climax. Now he will need his party more than before.

But if the BJP gets only around 180 seats and if the NDA is unable to reach even 230 seats, then a huge range of possibilities open up and it will be difficult to predict the final outcome.

If the BJP gets less than 200 seats, then automatically it means that Modi's fantastic high voltage political propaganda has not worked.

One thing is for sure, that it won't be just the Congress which will be an active player then. Just in case the NDA is unable to reach 272 seats and is in the low range of 220 seats, then some novel ideas may spring up. Like a 'national government'.

If the NDA gets a majority then it is a different story, but if the NDA searches for new partners to cobble together a majority, then Rashtrapati Bhavan is likely to tread cautiously, as expected.

One of the options debated among New Delhi's legal brains is that instead of inviting the party with the largest number of Lok Sabha seats to form the government once it submits the list of supporting parties, is there any other way to handle the situation?

The government of Atal Bihari Vajapayee was sworn-in in May 1996 but it lost power due to the absence of a majority on the floor of the House. And the invitation from the President went in vain.

Will it happen again given the present circumstances?

In New Delhi, many legal brains are debating if a situation can be avoided where the government loses the trust motion soon after being sworn in.

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 May 2014 01:26

^^^, dont worry to much, Pranab hates sonia coterie even more than BJP. He is waiting to have modi as PM.

Anantha · Post by **Anantha** » 13 May 2014 01:37

The president has to invite the single largest party/ coalition to form a Govt. He will have no other choice but to invite Modi even if NDA falls short of 272
The scenerio shown in that rediff paid article will happen if NDA gets 200 seats (not possible), where by third farts will any way have more seats.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 May 2014 01:39

check out this site : http://www.wikipredict.in/wikipredict/i ... ation_view

it is maintained by cvoter and has the major predictions, cvoter, csds, ac nielsen, hansa.

so we do get hansa numbers before undieTV actually presents it.

and boy oh boy, times now numbers are diff from cvoter, from which they claim to source it ! so may be times now applied its own spin.

============

right now I am with muraliravi ji and getting the feeling it's going to be 2004 redux. actual results wont match public perception. something sure is rotten in denmark.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 13 May 2014 01:41

muraliravi wrote:He should not be in jail. Let him express him opinion. No one should go to jail for expressing their opinion of any sorts on Twitter/FB or even in public unless they create a law and order situation. Actually Namo should strive for an India with full freedom of speech just like the US.

That post is not mere opinion. Both in the US and India, it can arguably be deemed to constitute sedition, and cause for the state machinery to land heavily upon him. Everyone has a right to vote out those whom they don't like. But no state allows anyone the right to raise arms against it.

If Chanakya's exit poll numbers do come true, it puts NDA within a handful of seats of 2/3rds majority, and all the power that provides. The 2/3rds requirement is for those actually voting, which means ~358 seats provides 2/3rds majority even if everyone from opposition shows up to vote against.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 May 2014 01:48

Times now is not cvoter, it is org.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 13 May 2014 01:50

cvoter is with which channel then ?

muraliravi · Post by **muraliravi** » 13 May 2014 01:52

Rahul M wrote:cvoter is with which channel then ?

India TV. Cvoter was doing it for timesnow also until the aaptards screwed c-voter with their sting operation, following which timesnow cancelled their contract.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 13 May 2014 01:58

@Suraj ^^^
"That post is not mere opinion. Both in the US and India, it can arguably be deemed to constitute sedition, and cause for the state machinery to land heavily upon him. Everyone has a right to vote out those whom they don't like. But no state allows anyone the right to raise arms against it."

You're right. And, he's also talking about an army mutiny coup. He's threatening war on the Indian state. He should be treated no differently than a Bhatkal (chose the first name:))

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 13 May 2014 02:37

Btw guys, not to loose focus, this is exit poll, not the actual result. I still shiver due to EVM Magic.

SandeepA · Post by **SandeepA** » 13 May 2014 02:50

I am convinced something is up with EVMs..they dont need so many days to start counting. Only question is why the BJP/SSwamy not going to town about this.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 13 May 2014 02:51

fanne wrote:Btw guys, not to loose focus, this is exit poll, not the actual result. I still shiver due to EVM Magic.

Don't tell me that you honestly don't beleive TodayChanakyaa. Jooth bole tho tera moooh kaala

.

Hence if TodayChankyaa is wrong then it is 100% EVM majic.

Let us watch.