Statewide and National runup to 2014 General elections

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 14 May 2014 21:27

ramana wrote:
prasannasimha wrote:Dont know where to post but Rahul Gandhi missed Manmohan Singh's farewell party according to CNN IBN

Kafir, Rajas dont attend farewells for runks!

Now Ramana using BENIS language. What an election this has been.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 14 May 2014 21:29

What BENIS language?

"Raja aur Runk" was title of a famous Hindi movie!

Its based on a Mark Twain story!

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 14 May 2014 21:30

i think he was referring to _khafir_

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 14 May 2014 21:34

How can Diggyy marry a woman who is already married. What NS is was this that he was asking for Shanktacharya's permission. Does he asks for his permission in other acts too ?
How long this slime will keep cheating people. The poor woman is $crewed in this.
Na Husband raha na Lover raha !!

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 14 May 2014 21:49

her husband had given the go ahead, telling everyone , as they had already split its her personal choice

vic · Post by **vic** » 14 May 2014 21:52

VikramS wrote:How to remove compromised people from these powerful positions like the judiciary is a challenge which Modi will have to deal with. This Ahmed Patel was one really wicked crook.

Very easy, induct more Dharmic Judges at young age. Within few years they will dominate as people will be able to guess their career graphs. There are 300 vacancies of High court judges, fill them all in a couple of months with fresh faces.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 14 May 2014 21:54

krishnan wrote:he is in spain per some tweet

Must be getting a haircut

sum · Post by **sum** » 14 May 2014 21:55

^^ News channels reporting he is "out of country". No location given

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 May 2014 22:00

why is-pain?

gandharva · Post by **gandharva** » 14 May 2014 22:13

Congress decimation NaMo style!

Lisa · Post by **Lisa** » 14 May 2014 22:22

sum wrote:^^ News channels reporting he is "out of country". No location given

Correction,

They said he was out of his mind. No location given.

member_22733 · Post by **member_22733** » 14 May 2014 22:25

He's riding the Modi wave

Pratyush · Post by **Pratyush** » 14 May 2014 22:40

Or is this the mythical escape velocity of Jupiter. That we keep hearing about.

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 14 May 2014 22:59

RajeshA wrote:Re: Giriraj Singh are needed to give a balance to BJP politics. Without leaders like him, danger is higher of NaMo govt. tilting in direction of Nehruvian ABV.

There will be many on Twitter who speak of "RW" politics like Swati Sarkar, Swapan Dasgupta, or even Minhaz Merchant etc. who basically think like Seculars and want to secularize Hindutva, and they would be making a lot of noise about Giriraj Singh. Even Rajiv Malhotra kind of people, who do not wish to leave the comfort zone of mutual respect, may not feel comfortable with prescriptions suggested by Giriraj Singh.

But people like Giriraj Singh make sure that Hindus don't fall back into some comfort zone now knowing they have a Modi Sarkar and thus need not fear religious aggression on Bharat.

You pick some right names there for the kind of fair weather friends who will try a repeat show of Vajpayee years. May be this helps in keeping them away (see, we are still communal onlee so dont try to be fraands with us. You will displease your st.stephens friends).

Also keep thought leaders like Arun Shourie near. He put it brilliantly the other day on TV - 'individual must be the unit of state policy'. After several decades of full blown appeasement borne out of both timidity and malice, need this message to be repeatedly nailed. that will also keep the fair weather friends away.

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 14 May 2014 23:02

Amresh Misra of Congress officebearer of arms stockpiling & threatening civil war fame is taken to Lucknow jail, he is booked under IT act 66A, under non bailable arrest, will be presented in the court tomorrow via Vaidehi Sachin

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 May 2014 23:04

link?

VinayB · Post by **VinayB** » 14 May 2014 23:11

muraliravi wrote:
SaiK wrote:UP exit poll - CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti final projections : http://cf.datawrapper.de/WF2rj/2/?fs=1
Is it just me who thinks that at 39% vote CSDS projection of 45-53 seats makes no sense. 39% is way higher than even the 1998 vote share of 35.3% when they got 54 of the 80, (actually 58 of the 85 in undivided UP). At 39% it should be 60 min.

Does UP have districts with 25% or more minority population? I remember reading that it does, and one of the UPA evil policies was special grants to such districts. If in those seats there was 'consolidation of secular vote behind one candidate', that could affect the result. for example, BJP 40% in that seat, SP and BSP both 15%. If 25% 'secular' vote goes to SP, it can change the picture.

On NDTV exit poll, both Prannoy Roy and his reporter from Lucknow were calling a Modi wave in UP, but they appear to be conservative on seats. There must be a reason for this, and above might be one.

Atleast one exit poll also mentioned some 9% muslims in UP voted BJP. Would that be shia ? what is the % of shia/sunni muslims across UP?

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 14 May 2014 23:22

vivek.rao wrote:
Jarita wrote:It is a forgone conclusion that Modi will be next PM of India. We can move on now

Dilbu wrote:NaMo will lose onlee.
There you go. Fixed the jinx with anti-jinx

Then Dilbu mia can post this "Cong can revive and Break-India forces will harass Modi."

brat · Post by **brat** » 14 May 2014 23:24

Lisa wrote:
sum wrote:^^ News channels reporting he is "out of country". No location given
Correction,

They said he was out of his mind. No location given.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 14 May 2014 23:34

guys no joke.. he must be carrying all secret documents of family to safety. nab him!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 14 May 2014 23:57

Sanku wrote:Amresh Misra of Congress officebearer of arms stockpiling & threatening civil war fame is taken to Lucknow jail, he is booked under IT act 66A, under non bailable arrest, will be presented in the court tomorrow via Vaidehi Sachin

What does this section cover ? Does it address sedition ?

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 14 May 2014 23:58

this M guy fired many round killing a businessman , he was nabbed thanks to this pic on social media #merrutriot

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 May 2014 00:02

baseball bats!?

Sanku · Post by **Sanku** » 15 May 2014 00:03

Suraj wrote:
Sanku wrote:Amresh Misra of Congress officebearer of arms stockpiling & threatening civil war fame is taken to Lucknow jail, he is booked under IT act 66A, under non bailable arrest, will be presented in the court tomorrow via Vaidehi Sachin
What does this section cover ? Does it address sedition ?

Unfortunately not. This is Kapil "Zero Loss" Sibal's draconian act on quality of speech on the internet. As such I am terribly sorry that ANYONE needs to go to jail on this extraordinarily stupid act. However as it stands, they can really use the arbitrariness of this act to make sure he has a chance to do a proper penance and lacerate his soul.

SanjayC · Post by **SanjayC** » 15 May 2014 00:05

Suraj wrote:
Sanku wrote:Amresh Misra of Congress officebearer of arms stockpiling & threatening civil war fame is taken to Lucknow jail, he is booked under IT act 66A, under non bailable arrest, will be presented in the court tomorrow via Vaidehi Sachin
What does this section cover ? Does it address sedition ?

66A. Punishment for sending offensive messages through communication service, etc.

Any person who sends, by means of a computer resource or a communication device,—

(a) any information that is grossly offensive or has menacing character; or

(b) any information which he knows to be false, but for the purpose of causing annoyance, inconvenience, danger, obstruction, insult, injury, criminal intimidation, enmity, hatred or ill will, persistently by making use of such computer resource or a communication device,

(c) any electronic mail or electronic mail message for the purpose of causing annoyance or inconvenience or to deceive or to mislead the addressee or recipient about the origin of such messages,

shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to three years and with fine.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 15 May 2014 00:13

That's really bad. He deserved to be booked for sedition for the kind of talk he indulged in. Unfortunately this is a reflection of the system that perpetuates the dynasty. It will have to be dismantled by removing the network of patronage that enables such a weak action to be taken.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 15 May 2014 00:19

IndraD wrote:this M guy fired many round killing a businessman , he was nabbed thanks to this pic on social media #merrutriot

And there are still many including on BRF who say that Hindus should not be keeping and carrying weapons. Refer to "right to guns" thread.

Rahul M · Post by **Rahul M** » 15 May 2014 00:21

no, they say Indians shouldn't carry guns in general. a big difference.

anyway, OT.

rajsunder · Post by **rajsunder** » 15 May 2014 00:23

muraliravi wrote:
SaiK wrote:UP exit poll - CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti final projections : http://cf.datawrapper.de/WF2rj/2/?fs=1
Is it just me who thinks that at 39% vote CSDS projection of 45-53 seats makes no sense. 39% is way higher than even the 1998 vote share of 35.3% when they got 54 of the 80, (actually 58 of the 85 in undivided UP). At 39% it should be 60 min.

with 39% BJP should cross 70 mark without much difficulty(its a four way fight, also add the joker aap party).

yesterday on poll of polls on justice arnab show one of the senior journalists was saying that 30% in UP means 40 tickets and for every % after that corresponds to 4-5 seats.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 15 May 2014 00:23

Arjun wrote:
Sanku wrote: I disagree, statements are needed, at no point of time Giriraj said muslim BTW, which is all that the clarification is. In any case nothing particularly serious was said.

If such basic plain speak is so much an issue, then no point of having your own Govt anyway.
Sanku, nothing wrong with plain speaking. But there must be a broader plan or conclusion in mind..."A number of Muslims are involved in terrorism - hence XYZ policy measure". Now, that would have made the context of the statement clear and logical - without that context, it just seems superfluous and designed to create bad blood.

Anyway - we can have our small disagreements after May 16. Hopefully, we have the most historic event in post-Independence India to look forward to on Friday !

Arjun ji, let us not be afraid of bad blood. We do not want a ABV 2.O this time. Giriraj Singh has guts to speak for us Hindus and he needs to be commended for that. Very few hindus today have this quality.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 15 May 2014 04:16

^^I don't recall the media getting all indignant after the 'saffron terror' comments by sitting ministers in the govt.... Giriraj can be useful if handled well...

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 15 May 2014 05:46

Namo will lose onlee.

vivek.rao · Post by **vivek.rao** » 15 May 2014 06:14

rajsunder wrote:
muraliravi wrote:UP exit poll - CNN-IBN-CSDS-Lokniti final projections : http://cf.datawrapper.de/WF2rj/2/?fs=1

Is it just me who thinks that at 39% vote CSDS projection of 45-53 seats makes no sense. 39% is way higher than even the 1998 vote share of 35.3% when they got 54 of the 80, (actually 58 of the 85 in undivided UP). At 39% it should be 60 min.
with 39% BJP should cross 70 mark without much difficulty(its a four way fight, also add the joker aap party).

yesterday on poll of polls on justice arnab show one of the senior journalists was saying that 30% in UP means 40 tickets and for every % after that corresponds to 4-5 seats.

TodaysChanakya is going to be right guys.

65-70 for UP is damn sure

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 15 May 2014 07:06

What does Su.Swamy mean by "Constitutional Amendment", on Arnab's show? People are running scared shit

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 15 May 2014 07:31

mamta ‏@mamtan14 7m

“@airnewsalerts: Election Commission bans victory processions in UP tomorrow.” Long nose behaving like jealous woman

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 15 May 2014 08:00

SwamyG wrote:What does Su.Swamy mean by "Constitutional Amendment", on Arnab's show? People are running scared shit

I think the strategy will be: everyone is allowed to come, and everyone can get a good deal. However, the grand strategy or big picture will be decided by the lotus leadership. And despite all the nautanki, even Mamtha dhidhi may come around giving issue based support.
As far as I understand, 2/3rd majority is needed for constitutional amendments. 540/3=180*2=360. So, 360 are needed. Thats means if NDA is around 330 mark, then the NDA can slice and dice the opposition to take support from some of them to make constitutional amendments.

Uniform Civil Code and Art 370 are the first things that come to mind. Well, I think people are giving a full mandate to saffron and so, saffron cannot have any excuse if it fails(as Rahul Mehta alleges they will).

----
Suraj saar,
I think it is not about re-distribution vs growth but rather re-distribution and growth. Any govt that concentrates on only one of the two will find it hard. If growth is neglected, then there won't be anything to re-distribute. If there is no re-distribution, then the fruits of the growth will not reach all peopleand will be restricted to a few segments of society, so others will react adversely.

TDP in AP concentrated on growth without re-distribution while Yesu Reddy went for re-distribution neglecting growth. Infact, it seems that Antonio was inspired by Yesu Reddy's tactics.

It is easy to justify a poll result after knowing the result but all that is mindplay. The reality is that both 2004 and 2009 could have gone either way. AP was critical in both results. In 2004, TDP lost in AP because of lack of re-distribution. TDP also lost because it neglected the agriculture and concentrated only on Hyd, that too only on IT sector. Kongis promised heaven and earth to everyone. In 2009, dummy parties were created to cut anti-incumbency votes. (There was fire even in 2009 in AP secretariat. Fires are a sign that the incumbent may exit. I think there was magic that saved the day. I know you don't believe in magic but I think there was magic at that time). In 2009, there is another angle. AP voted against the split. AP supported kongis because after the T phase of elections were over, Yesu Reddy donned anti-split persona and put TDP in a tight spot because TDP was in alliance with TRS. So, AP voted to kongis(at central) to put a lid on split ideas. Irony is that the kongis split the state. At state level, it was more neck and neck and chiru's party played a critical role in making the kongis win.

For quite some time, people have been giving full mandate and expecting results. UPA got a good mandate for an avg job in 2009. Apart from all the factors that I mentioned in previous para, there was also support for Manly Singh and Nuke deal in urbane crowd. Manly Singh was projected by the radiamedia as the greatest economist. So, people gave him a good mandate.

UP gave a good mandate to young Akki hoping he would clear the state towards better days. Dilli gave a good mandate to young Fordriwal hoping he would usher in change. On the same lines, NaMo will get a good mandate(a thumping mandate). But, people will expect actions on ground. The actions expected will be:
a) economy: growth and re-distribution.
b) ideology: 'Hindhuthva' or abolishing of leftist and minority appeasement.
c) neutralization of kongi cabal structure: that means there has to be visible punishments to those who indulged in corruption or illegal activities in past decade.

If NaMo fails on any of the above, then some people will turn away from him.

Strictly speaking, people don't care what policies(especially economic) are followed by the govt. What people care for is the end-result. If their lives are more comfortable, then they will accept any policy. If their lives become less convenient, then they will reject any policy.

'Comfortable' or 'convenient' is measured against previous experiences. If a person was earning 100 Rs previously and he starts to earn 110 Rs, then his life has become more comfortable. If a person was spending 100 Rs previously and he starts to spend 110 Rs, then his life has become more inconvenient. Those who are inconvenienced are more likely to come out and vote then those who are comfortable. This is precisely where ideology helps in garnering votes. Ideological supporters are crucial to winning elections because they remain loyal. So, any administration that neglects its ideological supporters will also face tough time. 2004 was exactly that for lotus. In 2004, lotus gave up the ideology and hoped that its good work will be enough to carry the day. But, the problem is that such a strategy is completely flawed because
a) ideological opposers of lotus will vote against lotus anyway.
b) ideological supporters of lotus will not vote because they have been neglected.
c) those who are happy with the general performance will not vote because they are convenient and don't have to bother about voting and stuff.
d) those who are unhappy with the general performance will vote because they want to get rid of the administration.

When people don't care about the Govt, then it means the Govt is doing a good job. When people start noticing that Govt is not doing its job, it means the Govt has really failed. If the water is available; roads are nice; jobs are available; railways, ports and airports are well connected and well-maintained; food is affordable and clean;...etc then people don't care who is ruling and what policies he is following. At best, they are just intellectual exercise.(BTW, same logic applies to the world: the fact that world is running perfectly shows that there is a system which is making the world run properly)

kongis did the opposite of what the lotus did: they concentrated only on their vote bank i.e. ideological issues. And they also went for re-distribution model without growth(I think the growth was deliberately sabotaged). This strategy is also flawed because people who are inconvenienced will come out and vote in large numbers.
a) all the ideological opposers oppose
b) all the ideological supporters support
c) all those inconvenienced by the administration will vote against
d) all those who are convenient won't care about voting(BTW, most of the supporters of Fordriwal seem to fall in this category).

Re-distribution can happen only when there is growth in the first place. If there is no growth, then re-distribution efforts are not going to be a huge success.

One way to get rid of the problem is by making the voting compulsory. However, people may still take the good performance of a govt for granted just as people can ignore the good running of the world and become atheists.

People also compare with their immediate friends, family and neighbours. If man is earning much more than people he knows, then he'll be happy. If man is earning much less than people known to him, then he'll be sad. So, there are two factors that people use to judge govts:
a) their(people's) present condition vs their previous condition
b) their(people's) condition vs condition of friends, family, neighbours and colleagues.

When they are doing alright on these two factors, then people will not mind. If they are doing exceedingly well, then people will love such an administration and support it. If they are doing badly on these two factors, then people will try to get rid of such an administration.

People had a good life style until 2010. Then, the situation started to get progressively worse. Most people's lives were effected negatively on above two factors due to inflation and lack of jobs(i.e. lack of growth).

vina · Post by **vina** » 15 May 2014 08:01

Can't understand the Hyd disturbance. Sikh flag burnt down, there are Muslim-Sikh disturbances, rumours floating around that MIM did this because Sikhs voted for BJP over MIM, and then Al-hindi has a write up ,with the Dal Khalsa "appealing" to local leaders of both"minority " communities to settle and the de rigour warning against miscreants of Right wing Hindus trying to divide minorities . something is going on, can't think exactly what.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 15 May 2014 08:05

MIM might actually lose their seat this time. just expressing their displeasure.
sikhs seem to have hit back hard looking at the pix of burnt tailor shops and such typically muslim owned...

tomorrow is Friday, and by afternoon prayers the results will be clear in trends leading. a day of rage can be expected in various places.

nothing better than a good round of communal riots to put new Govt on the defensive and "I told you so, Namo becoming PM will increase and spread hate in Yindia" commentaries.

Namo's first executive order has to be release all state and central agencies to CRUSH such miscreants with no letup.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 15 May 2014 08:11

Singha, I hope your cavalry to imperium is gaining the strengths.

Muppalla · Post by **Muppalla** » 15 May 2014 08:12

Singha wrote:MIM might actually lose their seat this time. just expressing their displeasure.

I don't know as many are saying the same. It is a seat with 60% Ms. However, the theory is most of 55% votes polled are from hindu colonies and M voting abysmal which makes MIM vulnerable. But no exit-poll has given HYD seat other than MIM.