shiv wrote:
What this has resulted in is EXACTLY what you have said - i.e. a gradual reduction of Paki army political clout and increase in jihadi clout. The US tried to sidestep this using fake assumptions based possibly on Paki promises. The US thought that Pakistan could really pull off the act of nurturing India specific jihadis while preventing jihads in general from hurting US interests. In fact jihadis under Paki guidance were expected to promote US interests like freedom and democracy. This has failed because jihad is not a Pakistani idea - it is lifted from Islam and probably the Quran/hadith/sura.
If C.Fair is to be believed - the US thought Muslims are good just like Christians until 2001 (9/11) They have started having other thoughts after 9/11. That means that it is entirely to our advantage to ensure that the US keeps getting attacked by Pakistani jihadis - and this in fact is just what has happened. the US has responded by paying the Pakistani army more (after 9-11) thinking that this will stop jihadis from attacking US interests. But the US has not realized that the Pakistani army itself is a jihadi force. The Paki army was the best specifically anti-India jihadi force in the world with enough discipline to avoid attacking the US, but after they lost all wars against India they have preserved themselves by letting Lashkars do the job. And the lashkars are now out of control.
Shiv-ji,
I agree with you that the US has been funding Pakistan for its own ends, and keeping India boxed in inside the subcontinent is one of them (yes, Pakistan has other uses for US, like destabilising Iran, keeping the Afghan cauldron from boiling over, etc). But the Christine Fair video looks like a bit of a self-forgiveness attempt to me. I don't think the US ever thought that the Muslims were like Christians (their own Fundie wing has been spewing venom against Islam for generations). My own analysis is that even the occasional attack on the US by the Lashkari Jihadists is an acceptable price for them (US) to pay, for other services rendered by Pakistan. And America's operational weapon in this region is the Pak army, which is the cheapest weapon the US has in the region - all other possibilities would be more expensive, and problematic. Without the Pak army in place, the US cannot control the other Lashkari Jihadists (who spew fire and brimstone against the US). In that sense, is it not in our interest to ensure the weakening of the Pakistani army/ISI, so that the Jihadists become more uncontrollable, and thus, tend to hit the US more (more prestige to the Jihadi that hits the Dajjal as opposed to the lowly Kufr)? Making the Jihadists more uncontrollable won't hurt us anymore than the Pak Army woud, but will hurt the US, which will be forced to look for an alternative, if the Pak Army is incapable of delivering what it is supposed to do.
The Lashkars cannot be controlled as long as the Pakistan army is training and funding them as autonomous "non state" forces to hit India. The Pakistan army will not stop training or funding them as long as they have the money and the incentive - which comes from US aid and US arms. If the US thinks the Paki army is good we (India) cannot convince them. But we can ensure that the Pakistan army continues to feel very threatened by us so that they keep on funding and arming Lashkars. Those Lashkars will attack anyone - including the US. This will be a vicious circle with no end - but we have no other option.
The fear that has been expressed is that after the US leaves Afghanistan, the Paki army will simply prevail and things will return to the bad old days. There is an interesting thing here. For India "bad old days" is from 1947, For USA, bad old days is after 2001. If post US withdrawal Afghanistan goes so far out of control that training camps sending jihadis to attack Europe and US targets - I think it will be a good thing for India. It will teach the US that the problem lies in propping up the Pakistan army. Of course jihadis will attack us as well. But we have been fighting that since 1947. The US only opened its eyes after 2001. And they looked in the wrong direction.
We should not convince the US. Let jihadis attack US interests and do the convincing. All we need to do is to look after ourselves and not solve any problems for the US. The US has never ever been interested in solving the jihad problem that India has faced from 1947. They are not about to start solving Indian problems now. But if that jihad hits the US - it's a good thing (for India) to have the US and jihadis hitting each other
Basically, what you are saying is that India has no interest in any US-Pakistan dynamics. That India is facing a war of attrition and can win it only by becoming stronger itself, sustaining attacks in the meantime, but pushing ahead. The war of attrition can be only won when India can force US (and the other fourfathers) to make choices between India and Pakistan finally, which the Indians at the moment, do not have?