Sunni Terrorist Fragments of Unstable Pakistan - 21 Apr 2014

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 07:37

shiv wrote:
jrjrao wrote:Hizb Al-Tahrir Rally at Al-Aqsa Mosque Calls on Pakistan Army to Liberate Jerusalem from Jews' Filth

Link to video:
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/4290.htm
The man whose wife has run away fantasizes about having affairs with the most desirable models and actresses.

I think it is a (politically acceptable in Pakistan) way to rally the faithful, without, e.g., alarming the Ahmedis, the Shias, etc.; the neighboring Indians, etc. etc.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Jun 2014 07:40

ramana wrote:
Guddu wrote:I think, legs open is more dominant body language...
The spider of Islamism probably bit them there preventing closing the legs.
Hakims can elaborate on that condition.

Bachpan Ke Kaate Kabhi legs Ikaathi Nahi Kar Sakte. Mohalla Mullah make sure this and if not him close family members will do the pious duty. There was article in Dawn claiming 80% Mards in Pakistan walk into their Jawani With Their Legs Wide Open experience and its the major underlying cause of angry reartarded society. Father knows what his children are going through and Children know their father's childhood encounters. Realy Dukked up society.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 07:41

A_Gupta wrote: I think it is a (politically acceptable in Pakistan) way to rally the faithful, without, e.g., alarming the Ahmedis, the Shias, etc.; the neighboring Indians, etc. etc.

Quite possibly so - but the thoughts I get in response to this are totally OT here. Maybe in the Islamophilia thread.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 07:50

Latest on Karakoram Highway:
http://tribune.com.pk/story/711242/atta ... p-miracle/

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 01 Jun 2014 08:22

ArmenT wrote: I wonder if the military is going to proclaim him as a returning hero, or are they going to court-martial his a$$ when he gets back stateside.

For those not in the know, the reason he got captured in the first place is because he willingly walked away from his post to join some of his local afghan militia "friends", and went up to the hills to drink and smoke some of Afghanistan's finest. His "friends" handed him to the Taliban. By the way, he got caught drinking earlier and got his ass chewed out and was talking about heading to the hills to become some kinda swami.

Earlier in the day, CNN had on its main page a link and some text, saying that when the dad with Obama made an appearance in DC today after the release, the dad pointedly said something to the effect that "my son has been away from English so long, that I should address him in a language he understands". And then, as per the earlier CNN story "the dad proceeded to say a few words/sentences in an Afghan dialect".

Here is the new CNN video of the dad speaking in the Afghan language (I am presuming it is Dari), starting off his remarks with the very familiar "Bismillah Ir Rehman ..."

CNN Link

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 01 Jun 2014 09:11

A_Gupta wrote:Latest on Karakoram Highway:
http://tribune.com.pk/story/711242/atta ... p-miracle/

Given the recent engineering feats of Chipanda, I wouldn't be suprised if both the highway and the port become fully operational in a few years. There may be some loss of lives due to landslides in the highway and due to Balochis in Gwador but neither Pakis nor Chipanda have any history of respecting the lives of civvies.

We should get over the notion that all weather cargo road / rail-line through Himalays cannot be built or maintained. It is just a question of time and my feeling is that the time is nearer than we think.

Instead of vainly expecting Gwador and Karadoram to fail, we should think about how to replicate such projects connecting mainland India with NE and building road and rail links through Burma till Singapore. To our south, we can start by building a road and rail link to Sri Lanka. Lot more to say, but I will be going OT.

ArmenT · Post by **ArmenT** » 01 Jun 2014 09:12

A_Gupta wrote:
ArmenT wrote: I wonder if the military is going to proclaim him as a returning hero, or are they going to court-martial his a$$ when he gets back stateside.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/05/3 ... Right-Wing

It is all political.

The Daily Kos link is full of crap too. Some of the people making those accusations were in that camp with him and were his squad mates. He had actually shipped most of his personal items back stateside a few days before he deserted. And this was halfway during his tour of duty too, so it wasn't like he was going home shortly. Plus, there are multiple emails going between him and his parents, where he starts talking about desertion. Also, he didn't walk off the base, he hid in the trunk of a car. His fellow soldiers put off several ops for weeks afterwards, while they spent their time looking for him.

According to one of the guys that was on the investigation team after the incident, that guy and his roommate were the two camp weirdos and no one else wanted to hang with them. Incidentally, the guy had originally wanted to join Blackwater, but was told he lacked the experience, which is why he joined the military. They didn't know he'd deserted initially (they thought he had been abducted for about 2 days), but after questioning several people, including his roommate and his squad, they came to the conclusion he had deserted. Incidentally, after questioning, his roommate went to the latrines and shot himself in the foot, so he'd be sent home.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jun 2014 09:22

shiv wrote:
jrjrao wrote:Hizb Al-Tahrir Rally at Al-Aqsa Mosque Calls on Pakistan Army to Liberate Jerusalem from Jews' Filth

Link to video:
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/4290.htm
The man whose wife has run away fantasizes about having affairs with the most desirable models and actresses.

I am reminded of Rajnikanth's admonition "An old man who is unable to even stand up desires nine wives".

Beyond all these, why is there a call to the Army of Pakistan and the millions of people of Pakistan to fight for Jerusalem all of a sudden? This particular rally seems to be well attended.

We know that Hizb-ut-Tahrir has its roots in Jerusalem. We also know that HuT's former global leader, late Abdul Qadeem Zallum (d. 2003) from Palestine, considered Pakistan as an important future stronghold and a strategic base after the country went nuclear in 1999, according to various reports. Hizb ut-Tahrir believes in armed struggle (jihad) against hostile states only after establishing a caliphate in an Islamic country, preferably Pakistan. HuT is today largely a Pakistani outfit working out of Birmingham.

HuT was linked to the 2003 assassination attempt on Musharraf. When ex Pakistani Army Major Haroon Ashiq (his brother Captain Khurram Ashiq defected to Al Qaeda and died fighting NATO troops in Helmand) joined HuJI and went to China to procure night vision goggles, Haroon called on his friend Captain Farooq, who was President Musharraf’s security officer, who then went to the airport and escorted him out safely. Captain Farooq was a member of HuT which was discovered later and he was quietly retired from the Army. In 2009, the then commanding officer of Shamsi Air Force Base Colonel Shahid Bashir, a retired PAF Squadron Leader and lawyer Nadeem Ahmad Shah were arrested for HuT connections and leaking sensitive information to them. A military court in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir identified two military officers and two civilians in January 2010 as members of HuT and charged them with planning to attack the Shamsi airbase in Balochistan. This facility is generally believed to be used as a base for US drones attacking targets in Pakistan`s tribal areas. The accused were also charged with transferring sensitive information to HuT. A few days later, after the May 2, 2011 incident of raid by the US Navy SEALs on Abbottabad eliminating Osama bin Laden, Pakistan arrested Brig. Ali Khan from his post in GHQ, Rawalpindi for connections with HuT. The modus operandi of HuT is to bring the personnel of military forces, the members of academia and the elite under its umbrella. Unlike usual revolutionary movements, HuT aims to bring change through the military because it is well aware that the military is the strongest institution in Pakistan.

Many of its cadres were arrested in Uzbekistan on suspected involvement in July, 30, 2004 attacks on Israeli and US embassies. The abortive mutiny by the Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) in 2009 was instigated by HuT after the secular Awami League came to power following the December 2008 general elections. Another coup attempt in December 2011 by fanatical mid-level officers with supoort from UK-based Bangladeshi expatriates was also instigated by HuT. The HuT seems to have penetrated in Bangladesh the educated youth, who are highly motivated and belong to affluent families in urban areas. The HuT Bangladesh website reads “O Army Officers! Remove Hasina, the killer of your brothers and establish the Khilafah to save yourselves and the Ummah from subjugation to US-India”.

jrjrao · Post by **jrjrao** » 01 Jun 2014 09:55

Hey Sridhar, just a heads up. The newest video URL on the front page -- the one that points to the YouTube link of Dr. Christine Fair's presentation at the Hudson Institute this past week about her new book on the Pak army-- has an incorrect clicky link. That link needs fixing. Thanks.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 09:57

ArmenT wrote: The Daily Kos link is full of crap too. Some of the people making those accusations were in that camp with him and were his squad mates.

And the US Army promoted him from E-3 to E-5 ( http://www.military-ranks.org/army ) while he was in captivity (links provided earlier).

One must wonder what they were thinking. There is something very Paki about the whole affair.

PS: scroll down here, it explains some:
http://www.bringboweback.com/

Follow Bowe's father on Twitter @bobbergdahl
The Father's notes from the Tree Planting in Hailey 22 June 2013
السلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
سُوۡرَةُ العَصر
بِسۡمِ ٱللهِ ٱلرَّحۡمَـٰنِ ٱلرَّحِيمِ
وَٱلۡعَصۡرِ إِنَّ ٱلۡإِنسَـٰنَ لَفِى خُسۡرٍ
إِلَّا ٱلَّذِينَ ءَامَنُواْ وَعَمِلُواْ ٱلصَّـٰلِحَـٰتِ
وَتَوَاصَوۡاْ بِٱلۡحَقِّ وَتَوَاصَوۡاْ بِٱلصَّبۡرِ

Afghan Tree Project
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/the-a ... ect?c=home

TREES FOR BOWE

WHY DO WE PLANT TREES TODAY?
FAITH AND HOPE FOR THE FUTURE
DOZENS OF YOUNG MEN AND WOMEN FROM THIS VALLEY ANSWERED THE CALL AFTER 9/11
MY SON WAS JUST ONE OF THEM
HE PLAYED IN THIS PARK
HE ROAMED THESE MOUNTAINS
HE TRAVELLED THE WORLD

... AND HE BELIEVED HE COULD HONESTLY HELP THE AFGHAN PEOPLE

... AND HE HAS HELPED THE AFGHAN PEOPLE

WE PLANT TREES BECAUSE WE IN THIS MOUNTAIN VALLEY HAVE HOPE FOR THE FUTURE
... AND WE TRY TO COMMUNICATE THAT TO THE AFGHAN PEOPLE

GIVE TO THE AFGHAN TREE PROJECT

GIVE TO NON PROFITS THAT WILL HELP THE PEOPLE AFGHANISTAN

NOW LET ME SAY SOMETHING DIRECTLY TO THE TALIBAN

BISMILLAH AL RAHMAN AL RAHIM...

AL ASR (recite in Arabic)

AS TIME GOES BY HUMANITY IS AT A LOSS
EXCEPT THOSE WHO HAVE FAITH
AND DO GOOD WORKS
AND STAND FOR TRUTH
AND HAVE PATIENCE

ZE PLAR YEM
DA JINGA BANDI AMERICAYE AFGHANISTAN KI
CHIRTA DEY DAFTAR QATAR DEY?
I AM THE FATHER
THE AMERICAN PRISONER OF WAR
Where is the office in Qatar?
ZE AFGHAN NA YEM ZE AMERICAYI YEM
I AM NOT AFGHAN, I AM AMERICAN
ASSALAMUALLAIKOM RAMAHTULAHI WARABAKATU AFGHANISTAN, AMEEN AMEEN
THE PEACE OF GOD AND THE BLESSINGS OF GOD BE UPON THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN
MAY THIS COME TO PASS

BOWE
YOU ARE PART OF THE PEACE PROCESS FOR AFGHANISTAN
HAVE FAITH
DO GOOD WORKS WHERE EVER YOU ARE
STAND FOR THE TRUTH
HAVE PATIENCE
I LOVE YOU
YOU ARE MY SON
A FATHER DOES NOT LEAVE HIS SON ON THE BATTLE FIELD
I WILL NOT LEAVE YOU
THIS TOWN WILL NOT LEAVE YOU
IDAHO WILL NOT LEAVE YOU
COUNTRY WILL NOT LEAVE YOU
AFTER 12 LONG YEARS IT IS TIME TO COME HOME
IT IS TIME TO FOR AMERICANS TO LEAVE AFGHANISTAN

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Jun 2014 10:12

partha wrote:Yeah, it is a good video. Talking about Indian military journals, she says "they are like ours" essentially doing an India == US. That should hurt the RAPE H&D.

However considering the history of her flip flops, I'll not be surprised a few years down the line she again changes tune to "solve cashmere to fix pakistan" or something like that. I agree with Anujanji here. But let's enjoy while it lasts.
...

How about "let's not?"

Any whiff of a tendency to look for TFTA white-people endorsement of India vis-a-vis Pakistan has to be squashed before it starts stinking up the place.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Jun 2014 10:33

Gus wrote:yikes..that 'stoning of pregnant women by own family' story -

if you thought it could not get any more ghastly..think again..this is pakistan after all

http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/29/world/mea ... r-killing/
The husband of Farzana Parveen, the Pakistani woman stoned to death for refusing to participate in an arranged marriage, told CNN he killed his first wife so he could marry Parveen .
and MORE

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... amily.html
Her stepson Aurangzaib, who uses only one name, said on Thursday that Ms Parveen’s older sister, Rehana, was poisoned by the family four years ago.

“She was married and wanted to live with her husband,” he said. “It was an arranged marriage but later her family developed issues with in-laws of her sister and started demanding her to leave her husband. When she denied doing so, one day the family invited her at their home and poisoned her.”
yeah..they are just like us

It's so sad that south asians are such terrible people.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 01 Jun 2014 10:48

Soldier, 16 Taliban killed in Bajaur clash

Bet These PAki killed Civilians

KHARDUSHANSTAN: A soldier and 16 Taliban were killed Saturday after an ambush on border posts in Bajaur, military officials said.“Up to 200 Taliban from across the border attacked a group of posts and at least 16 militants were killed in the fierce fighting,” a military official told AFP. The rest of the militants escaped.“One soldier embraced martyrdom and two others were wounded critically as security forces repulsed the attack,” the official said.“The militants from TTP Bajaur and Swat chapters had regrouped in Ghund village of Kunar district in Afghanistan and launched the attack in the Nao Top area from there,” the official said.Security sources told Daily Times the militants who are said to have moved across the border to escape a military operation in NWA are allegedly behind the attack.Talking to Daily Times by phone, Bajaur Agency Political Agent Syed Abdul Jabbar Shah said the attack was reportedly launched by the TTP militants who had fled to Khost, Paktika and Kunar provinces. Shah cited intelligence reports suggesting that the militants entered Bajaur from Ghund village in the night between Friday and Saturday. “It was a well thought out attack that has been foiled due to the effective response of our forces.”Security sources said army’s cobra gunship choppers were used to foil the attack. Curfew has been imposed in the area for a clearing operation. “The situation is under control.”

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 01 Jun 2014 10:54

jrjrao wrote:Hey Sridhar, just a heads up. The newest video URL on the front page -- the one that points to the YouTube link of Dr. Christine Fair's presentation at the Hudson Institute this past week about her new book on the Pak army-- has an incorrect clicky link. That link needs fixing. Thanks.

Rao, thanks. Fixed.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Jun 2014 11:09

A_Gupta wrote:
shiv wrote:Let me nitpick your question. The Pakistan army is not worried about the lives or economy of ordinary Pakis. If they did they would stop the adversarial relationship and allow human development more funds and stop competing with India. The idea of not being able to challenge India (or at least appear to do that in front of Pakis) is defeat and "Indian hegemony".
That is a psychological dimension -- that children face and get over when they find out that Santa Claus is not a real person. But what is the material dimension? Is it simply that "acquiescing in Indian hegemony" means the Pakistani military no longer can commandeer the state's resources? Or is there something more than that?

Maybe stepping back in time might help with my question. Pre-Independence Muslims feared "Hindu hegemony" in a united India. I can immediately point to what material things they might have feared - discrimination in jobs, in admissions to educational institutions, banning of Muslim public religious functions, denial of permission to build or upkeep mosques, etc., etc., etc. I'm not saying that these fears had any basis in reality, but the idea was that "Hindu hegemony" might impact the welfare of Muslims in material ways. (That the "natural order of things has been upset with short, dark, idolatrous, rice-eaters in the halls of power instead of only Allah's chosen tall, fair, meat-eaters" is a psychological thing that one can reasonably expect a sane people to eventually overcome, just like children outgrow Santa Claus.)

What do post-Independence Pakistanis have to actually fear from "Indian hegemony"?

You get your answer when you consider that historically, Muslims have more-or-less been in a position to do all these things--discriminate against Hindus, make their religious lives harder etc., and have indeed, on a great many occasions, done exactly those things. So, there is an experience-based expectation in the paki mind that this kind of dominance over Hindus is the definition of "normal", any evidence of being forced to depart from this "normal" zone is experienced as pain and hegemony by "the other."

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 Jun 2014 11:12

A_Gupta wrote:
...dependent on Indian whims for trade and economy and security.
Pakistan a Ukraine to Delhi's Putin? Is there anything other than a phantasmic fear? Is even tiny Bhutan in that situation?

Is the actual Putin vis-a-vis the actual Ukraine more of a real problem or more of a phantasmic fear? You can convince yourself that anyone is a threat if you just try a little harder.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 11:30

schinnas wrote: Given the recent engineering feats of Chipanda, I wouldn't be suprised if both the highway and the port become fully operational in a few years. There may be some loss of lives due to landslides in the highway and due to Balochis in Gwador but neither Pakis nor Chipanda have any history of respecting the lives of civvies.

We should get over the notion that all weather cargo road / rail-line through Himalays cannot be built or maintained. It is just a question of time and my feeling is that the time is nearer than we think.

Instead of vainly expecting Gwador and Karadoram to fail, we should think about how to replicate such projects connecting mainland India with NE and building road and rail links through Burma till Singapore. To our south, we can start by building a road and rail link to Sri Lanka. Lot more to say, but I will be going OT.

This is sound advice. Except that I have been hearing such sound advice for 20 years and that multi-lane highway through the Himalayas is nowhere near starting let alone completion. Of course it will get done some day. I am sure of that.

Since my job is only to talk and wait rather than do anything I am quite willing to wait another 20 years to see if this prediction is true or not. In the meantime my prediction is that things will not go as far or as fast as predicted. I will leave it at that because no one is going to be here on BRF to either catch me out or for me to boast that I was right.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 12:10

It is easy to find a thousand articles talking about the "potential" of Gwadar and how it can generate even trillions of dollars worth of trade (I kid you not). But it is very ve-ery difficult to find any information about the shipping tonnage that went via Gwadar in the last 2 tears or at any time for that matter.

Here is an old (2006) analysis from a Paki forum. I would like to know about all the new motorways built from Gwadar to other areas since 2006
http://defence.pk/threads/the-truth-about-gwadar.1661/

The government claims that the Gwadar project will change the face of the earth and the fate of Balochistan; that it will turn the area into a special economic zone where banks will open their branches, five star hotels will be built, offshore banking will begin, factories, warehouses and storage will be set up, and the tourism industry will be promoted in the area. An export processing zone will be set up making Gwadar a regional hub of trade and investment activities, a very attractive place for direct foreign investment. Most important of all, it is regarded as a panacea for the social, economic and political problems of Balochistan, although the people of the province have realised the fallacious nature of these claims. It is also considered of strategic importance, an alternative to Persian Gulf ports, and a gateway to Central Asia. A new addition to the potentials of the project is that it will be an energy corridor for China.

There are no facts and figures to support these claims or to indicate how the benefits will be realised. The ground realities are different from the official claims. The facts are briefly as follows.

The Gwadar port is already a failed project. A mini-port was built in 1988-92 at a cost of Rs1,623 million including the foreign exchange component of Belgian Franks of 1,427 million, equivalent to Rs749 million, arranged by the contractor. The port facilities included 3 berths of 3.5 meter depth capable of accommodating ships of up to 1000 DWT, one 80 ton crane, two 25 ton cranes each, a dredger and support equipment. No ship worth the name ever called the port. No investigations were carried out to identify the causes of the failure of the port which still hold good.

The viability of a port depends on its hinterland. Gwadar has none. The area behind the coast for a 600 km depth is barren, and comprises a desert and hilly terrain. It does not generate or attract a single ton of sea worthy traffic. Hence all exports or imports will come from and go to other areas of the country.

So far, Gwadar is linked with Karachi only by a 653-km-long coastal highway which takes off from N-25 between Sonmiani and Uthal and goes 80 km west of Gwadar up to the Iran border. The correct distance between Karachi and Gwadar is not known. It varies from source to source. A most favourable figure of 650 km is used for evaluation. Other links are under construction. All traffic to and from Gwadar will have to pass through Karachi and incur an additional cost of carrying goods for another 650 km by road. No sane person will by-pass Karachi just to avail port facilities at Gwadar 650 km away. The other two links, namely, Gwadar-Ratodero motorway and Gwadar-Turbat-Hoshab-Panjgur-Surab road, are under construction and will take years to complete.

Even after completion of under-construction road links and proposed rail links, all areas proposed to be served by Gwadar port will remain closer to Karachi. The nearest point of transit trade of Afghanistan and Central Asian States is Chaman. Its distance from Gwadar by the shortest route (Gwadar-Panjgur-Surab-Quetta-Chaman) will be 1,066 km as compared to 816 km from Karachi to Chaman, 250 km longer than from Karachi. The nearest point where Gwadar is proposed to be linked with the rest of the country is Ratodero on N-55 (Indus Highway). Its distance from Gwadar is 892 km as compared to 494 km from Karachi, a difference of 398 km.

In the case of a rail link, the distance of 515 km between Gwadar and Dalbandin via Panjgur is an underestimation. The direct distance by road from Gwadar to Panjgur is 411 km. From Panjgur to Dalbandin, the air route distance on the map is 212 km. Thus the distance from Gwadar to Dalbandin will be more than 623 km. Quetta is another 343 km from Dalbandin and Chaman is 142 km from Quetta. If the distance between Gwadar and Dalbandin is taken as 515 km, the distance of Chaman from Gwadar by rail will be 1,000 km as compared to 1,003 km from Karachi via Rohri, a difference of only three kilometres which will be more than offset by higher speeds on the main line. If the distance from Gwadar to Dalbandin is taken as 623 km, which is more likely to be the case, the distance to Chaman will be 105 km longer.

It may be noted that Karachi and Chaman are located on the same longitude and Karachi and Gwadar on the same latitude. As such, Karachi Chaman and Karachi Gwadar make two sides of a right angle triangle. Gwadar-Chaman is the hypotenuse of the triangle which will be longer than any of the two sides. This means that the distance between Gwadar and Chaman will remain longer no matter how direct and straight a route is followed.

It may also be noted that three roads linking Gwadar with the road network of the country join N-25 (Karachi-Kalat-Quetta-Chaman) at Uthal, Khuzdar and Surab and km 120, 385 and 477 from Karachi respectively. In comparison to the coastal highway, the 650 km Gwadar Khuzdar road will save the 148 km distance to Quetta whereas the Gwadar-Panjgur-Surab route (727 km) will save only 15 km over the Gwadar Khuzdar road. The relative costs and benefits of competitive road facilities do not seem to have been considered at all.

Besides the increase in the cost of transport because of longer distances, unit rates would also be higher for movements to and from Gwadar as compared to Karachi. The latter is a big industrial and commercial city and generates a large volume of passenger and goods traffic. A large number of goods' vehicles are always available and return loads are often available to and from upcountry. Therefore, charges are competitive and minimal. In the case of Gwadar, imports and exports, if any, would not be so synchronised as to provide return loads to all trucks visiting the town. Transporters would cover round trip costs from one direction. As such, unit rates could be 50 to 100 per cent higher than for Karachi.

Although roads have their own utility and are the sole means of transport for upcountry movements, water transport, is more than 10 times cheaper than road transport. Where both land and water transport are available, water transport would have a far greater cost advantage over land transport. Movement of many bulky commodities which cannot bear the cost of land transport would become feasible by sea. Existing berths in Gwadar can handle ships of 1000 DWT.

Therefore, goods to and from Gwadar can be carried by sea to Karachi and distributed to inland and foreign destinations, at far less cost than the coastal highway. If one is to indulge in such absurdities as to import goods at Gwadar and carry them to Karachi for onward distribution, it should be done at a lower cost by using coastal shipping rather than road transport.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 12:52

Here is some more news about Gwadar - this time from Mrch 2014 - about 2 months ago
http://www.dawn.com/news/1093253/slow-p ... -on-gwadar

IT has been almost a year since a Chinese company took over the management and operational control of the Gwadar port in Balochistan.

The objective of giving the deep-water port into the control of the Chinese company was to make it fully functional at the earliest by constructing extensive and expensive rail and road links between Gwadar and western China through the development of an economic and energy corridor.

An agreement to develop the corridor during Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s visit to Beijing shortly after his return to power last summer had reinforced hopes of an early start to work on this trade link.

However, the insurgency in Balochistan is thought by many to be a major hurdle in the way of Chinese investment in the development of the port.

In its present state, the initiative has the look of the classic example that shows a government how not to attempt economic development in isolation of politics and security. The political remedy that should have accompanied the project has failed to materialise and without it progress remains elusive.

<snip>

But before that happens, Islamabad will have to address Baloch grievances, bring the separatists into the mainstream and assure the people that their rights to the resources of the province will not only be respected but kept above every other consideration.

Unless the Baloch agree to own the project the dream of a functional, busy Gwadar port and Pak-China trade corridor will remain unrealised.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 13:00

And some news about Chinese engineering prowess and the Karakoram highway. As long as no one reads available information, one can rest assured that the project is moving ahead in leaps and bounds.

http://thediplomat.com/2013/07/karakora ... orridor/1/

Excerpts onlee:

..
for the moment, Gwadar is just an economic beachhead on China’s “march west”.

But while the port is militarily undeveloped, it is also lacking as a base for trade. As The Diplomat’s James R. Holmes has pointed out, though the port occupies a prime position at the mouth of the Strait of Hormuz, it harbors other serious geographic disadvantages. Most notably, the neighboring province of Baluchistan is home to an entrenched insurgency and frothing sectarianism, and makes for a perilous place to lay a trade route.

But China has bigger problems in wanting to use Gwadar port as an economic base, problems that ironically lie more than 2,000 kilometers away, high in the cloud-tipped Karakoram mountain range in northern Pakistan. The success of Gwadar as a Chinese trading post hinges on the political and geological stability of the 1,300-kilometer Karakoram Highway (KKH), China’s only overland link to Pakistan. Without the KKH, which cuts an impressive path through rugged, high-altitude terrain, there is no land route to Gwadar. Without a reliable land route to the port, Gwadar’s value decreases dramatically; and the KKH is anything but reliable.

and

And expansion of the KKH is a challenging prospect, even for China’s experienced road builders.

The big worry for China is that the earthquake and subsequent landslide that created Attabad Lake is not an isolated incident. The KKH winds through a tangle of high peaks where the three highest mountain chains in the world – the Karakoram, the Hindu Kush and the Himalayas – meet. The region is webbed with fault lines, making seismic activity a frequent and deadily reality. The epicenter of the 1974 Hunza earthquake that killed over 5,000 people was located less than 10 kilometers from the highway. In 2005, the Kashmir earthquake killed over 100,000 people; its epicenter was only a few dozen kilometers from the highway. These earthquakes demolished infrastructure and blocked parts of the highway for weeks at a time.

Landslides are also common occurrence even without the precipitating effect of earthquake tremors, and the road is regularly obstructed by boulders and rubble. Since much of the KKH is narrow, even a small landslide will immobilize traffic in both directions until the debris can be cleared.

Floods are another natural hazard plaguing the highway. Glacial runoff during the summer will wash out bridges, stranding freight and passenger traffic occasionally for more than a month at a time.

Other infrastructure is destroyed by coursing runoff as well: floods in 2010 severely damaged Chinese-built hydroelectric facilities and swept away transmission towers and power lines. Access to power in the northern regions is now tenuous in the best of times. In the winter, grid electricity may be unavailable for days to weeks on end as crippled hydroelectric facilities struggle to cope with lower rivers and heating demands. Often, electricity is rationed to the largest cities for a couple of hours in the evening.

and..

In other words, Chinese project managers will not only have to grapple with natural disasters but also with the fallout of inept local response.

However, local irascibility is largely benign when compared with escalating sectarian violence in the region. Gilgit-Baltistan, the last Pakistani administrative district on the way to China, is the only region in the country that hosts a Shia majority. For decades now Pakistani Shias, facing persecution, have fled to remote mountainous areas of the country.

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 01 Jun 2014 13:49

What will happen if a few artillery shells explode on the hills above KKH? Will it cause enough landslide to wipe out big parts of the highway?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 14:03

putnanja wrote:What will happen if a few artillery shells explode on the hills above KKH? Will it cause enough landslide to wipe out big parts of the highway?

Stop bothering me when I am busy. I have no artillery shells to spare for your experiments - but here - you can take take this Pinaka launcher and see what it does..

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 01 Jun 2014 14:47

In the land of the vibrant press and freedom of speech, more reminders of who really is the boss. Masked men attack Jang’s resident editor in Multan.

Unknown arms-wielding masked men attacked the Resident Editor of the daily Jang Zafar Aheer and left him injured near Western Ford Colony in Multan on early Saturday, Geo News reported.

An eyewitness told Geo news that more than six attackers were on two motorbikes and a car.

“They called me an agent of India and Jews, and a traitor,” he added.

Zafar Aheer said that he loves companions of the Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) and Ahle Bait.“I am Pakistani and love Pakistan,” he added.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 01 Jun 2014 15:02

schinnas wrote: Given the recent engineering feats of Chipanda, I wouldn't be suprised if both the highway and the port become fully operational in a few years. There may be some loss of lives due to landslides in the highway and due to Balochis in Gwador but neither Pakis nor Chipanda have any history of respecting the lives of civvies.

We should get over the notion that all weather cargo road / rail-line through Himalays cannot be built or maintained. It is just a question of time and my feeling is that the time is nearer than we think.

Instead of vainly expecting Gwador and Karadoram to fail, we should think about how to replicate such projects connecting mainland India with NE and building road and rail links through Burma till Singapore. To our south, we can start by building a road and rail link to Sri Lanka. Lot more to say, but I will be going OT.

shiv wrote:This is sound advice. Except that I have been hearing such sound advice for 20 years and that multi-lane highway through the Himalayas is nowhere near starting let alone completion. Of course it will get done some day. I am sure of that.

Since my job is only to talk and wait rather than do anything I am quite willing to wait another 20 years to see if this prediction is true or not. In the meantime my prediction is that things will not go as far or as fast as predicted. I will leave it at that because no one is going to be here on BRF to either catch me out or for me to boast that I was right.

schinnas Ji :

Shiv Ji has given the the major portion of the information I was collating for my reply. However here are some Figures supporting the posts from Shiv Ji :

Central Asian Trade :

Kazakhstan : Exports : $93.07 billion (2012 est.) - Exports partners: China 21%, Russia 9.9%, France 9.3%, Germany 6.9%, Italy 5%, Canada 4.8%, Ukraine 4.7%, Romania 4.1% (2012)

Imports : $47.89 billion (2012 est.) - Imports partners : Russia 31.6%, China 26.6%, Germany 6%, Ukraine 4.4% (2012)

Kyrgyzstan : Exports : $2 billion (2012 est.) - Exports - partners: Uzbekistan 28.8%, Kazakhstan 22%, Russia 14.6%, China 7%, UAE 6.3%, Afghanistan 5.7% (2012)

Imports : $4.981 billion (2012 est.) - Imports partners : China 55.9%, Russia 17.7%, Kazakhstan 6.4% (2012)

Tajikistan : Exports : $1.803 billion (2012 est.) - Exports partners : Turkey 30.5%, China 9.6%, Iran 7.7%, Afghanistan 6.5%, Kazakhstan 4.9%, Russia 4.3% (2012)

Imports : $4.029 billion (2012 est.) - Imports – partners : China 42.3%, Russia 16.2%, Kazakhstan 10.1%, Turkey 5.7%, Iran 4.2% (2012)

Turkmenistan : Exports : $15.4 billion (2012 est.) - Exports partners : China 66%, Ukraine 7%, Italy 4.5% (2012)

Imports : $10.19 billion (2012 est.) - Exports partners : China 66%, Ukraine 7%, Italy 4.5% (2012)

Imports : $10.19 billion (2012 est.) - Imports partners : China 20.1%, Turkey 17.5%, Russia 13%, UAE 6.9%, Germany 4.8%, UK 4.4% (2012)

Uzbekistan : Exports : $14.38 billion (2012 est.) - Exports partners : China 21.2%, Kazakhstan 15.9%, Turkey 15.8%, Russia 14.7%, Bangladesh 9.5%, Kyrgyzstan 4% (2012)

Imports : $12.06 billion (2012 est.) - Imports partners : Russia 20.7%, China 16.6%, South Korea 16.4%, Kazakhstan 12.5%, Germany 4.6%, Turkey 4.2%, Ukraine 4% (2012)

Please note that other than the Trade to UAE and Bangladesh i.e. The Trade to Europe, Russia, China i and in future to Japan and Koreas is-will be BY RAIL!

So Manyashrees of BR-F : In respect of CAR Trade via Gwadi Wadi Yar :What Trade?

Cheers

Brad Goodman · Post by **Brad Goodman** » 01 Jun 2014 15:25

How did rakshaks miss this

Travel restrictions on Pakistan by WHO to be enforced from today
aache din aa gaye

The travel restrictions on Pakistan recommended by World Health Organisation (WHO) due to the rising number of polio cases in the country, will be enforced from today (June 1)

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 Jun 2014 16:08

saip wrote:Whatever happened 'we never negotiate with terrorists' thingy?

That was a lie perpetrated by Hollywood to deter Jihadis from pulling Hostage drams by the Us. It was always easy to practice when Jihadis and Americans were seperated by 1000's of miles.

anupmisra · Post by **anupmisra** » 01 Jun 2014 18:00

Brad Goodman wrote: Travel restrictions on Pakistan by WHO to be enforced from today
The travel restrictions on Pakistan recommended by World Health Organisation (WHO) due to the rising number of polio cases in the country, will be enforced from today (June 1)

Seems like Nawaz Sharief and his entourage (commandu et al) made it to India and attend Modi's swearing-in-ceremony just in time. Otherwise it would be have been a swearing-at-ceremony.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 01 Jun 2014 19:08

Republicans attack Obama over soldier swap

WASHINGTON: Top Congressional Republicans have raised sharp questions about President Barack Obama's deal to swap five Taliban members for a captured US solder, with some even accusing him of breaking the law.

Cheers

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 19:15

KLNMurthy wrote:You get your answer when you consider that historically, Muslims have more-or-less been in a position to do all these things--discriminate against Hindus, make their religious lives harder etc., and have indeed, on a great many occasions, done exactly those things. So, there is an experience-based expectation in the paki mind that this kind of dominance over Hindus is the definition of "normal", any evidence of being forced to depart from this "normal" zone is experienced as pain and hegemony by "the other."

So to people who believe that there is no "natural right to dominate", the explanation of Paki fears is that they are ideological/religious/psychological in origin. Which is what I suspect, but want to be sure. "The natural right to dominate" is as much of an imaginary thing as Santa Claus, and children have the resiliency to get over it.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 19:19

KLNMurthy wrote: Is the actual Putin vis-a-vis the actual Ukraine more of a real problem or more of a phantasmic fear? You can convince yourself that anyone is a threat if you just try a little harder.

Well, Russia and Ukraine have had a number of energy disputes, in 2006, 2008, 2009, etc., which could seem like a threat. And maybe Putin claiming Crimea might be like India claiming Sind

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 19:39

Aditya_V wrote:
saip wrote:Whatever happened 'we never negotiate with terrorists' thingy?
That was a lie perpetrated by Hollywood to deter Jihadis from pulling Hostage drams by the Us. It was always easy to practice when Jihadis and Americans were seperated by 1000's of miles.

Emphasis added:

In 1985, while Iran and Iraq were at war, Iran made a secret request to buy weapons from the United States. McFarlane sought Reagan's approval, in spite of the embargo against selling arms to Iran. McFarlane explained that the sale of arms would not only improve U.S. relations with Iran, but might in turn lead to improved relations with Lebanon, increasing U.S. influence in the troubled Middle East. Reagan was driven by a different obsession. He had become frustrated at his inability to secure the release of the seven American hostages being held by Iranian terrorists in Lebanon. As president, Reagan felt that "he had the duty to bring those Americans home," and he convinced himself that he was not negotiating with terrorists. While shipping arms to Iran violated the embargo, dealing with terrorists violated Reagan's campaign promise never to do so. Reagan had always been admired for his honesty.

The arms-for-hostages proposal divided the administration. Longtime policy adversaries Secretary of Defense Caspar Weinberger and Secretary of State George Shultz opposed the deal, but Reagan, McFarlane and CIA director William Casey supported it. With the backing of the president, the plan progressed. By the time the sales were discovered, more than 1,500 missiles had been shipped to Iran. Three hostages had been released, only to be replaced with three more, in what Secretary of State George Shultz called "a hostage bazaar."

From:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperie ... agan-iran/

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 Jun 2014 20:46

A_Gupta wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:You get your answer when you consider that historically, Muslims have more-or-less been in a position to do all these things--discriminate against Hindus, make their religious lives harder etc., and have indeed, on a great many occasions, done exactly those things. So, there is an experience-based expectation in the paki mind that this kind of dominance over Hindus is the definition of "normal", any evidence of being forced to depart from this "normal" zone is experienced as pain and hegemony by "the other."
So to people who believe that there is no "natural right to dominate", the explanation of Paki fears is that they are ideological/religious/psychological in origin. Which is what I suspect, but want to be sure. "The natural right to dominate" is as much of an imaginary thing as Santa Claus, and children have the resiliency to get over it.

Arun - to my mind it helps to step out of secular explanations of mindsets and ask what Islam says, what Pakistanis have been taught to believe about the natural superiority of Islam, and what they have been taught would be the expected behaviour of the enemies of Islam (which, it turns out is exactly the sort of atrocious behaviour that is fine and dandy as long as a Muslims/Pakistan does it). That atrocious behaviour is expected from Indians. The fact that Indians do not display that behaviour is not the point. The holy texts of Islam and the mullahs say how non Muslims will behave and that is always to be expected, even if current behaviour is different. And Pakistani behaviour is attuned to expect that opposition and keep fighting. And just as Mahomet the prophet allegedly survived many odds as per Quran and assorted texts, Shitistan is seen as surviving similar odds.

It is a mistake to try and reach explanations of Pakistani behaviour without looking at things through an Islamic/jihad filter.

It is psychological yes - but it is religious-Islamic-psychological.

schinnas · Post by **schinnas** » 01 Jun 2014 23:04

Shiv-ji, Peregrine-ji:
Regarding Chipanda's interest in Gwadar - do enlighten me (sincere ask - not rhetorical!). Is there any reason to think KKHighway and all the publicly promised heaven of 5 star hotels, ityadi to Pakis is everything? Given the supposedly rich natural resources in Balochistan, does it make sense for Chipanda to first secure an efficient captive port before securing exclusiving mining rights in Balochistan. If they can make mining operations work in unstable Afghanistan, why would Baloch be any difficult, especially if they have a fully controlled port close-by?

That aside, time will tell how successful KKHighway rebuilding project is going to be. My guess is we will know the answer is lot less than 20 years.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 01 Jun 2014 23:25

shiv wrote:Arun - to my mind it helps to step out of secular explanations of mindsets and ask what Islam says, what Pakistanis have been taught to believe about the natural superiority of Islam, and what they have been taught would be the expected behaviour of the enemies of Islam (which, it turns out is exactly the sort of atrocious behaviour that is fine and dandy as long as a Muslims/Pakistan does it). That atrocious behaviour is expected from Indians. The fact that Indians do not display that behaviour is not the point. The holy texts of Islam and the mullahs say how non Muslims will behave and that is always to be expected, even if current behaviour is different. And Pakistani behaviour is attuned to expect that opposition and keep fighting. And just as Mahomet the prophet allegedly survived many odds as per Quran and assorted texts, Shitistan is seen as surviving similar odds.

It is a mistake to try and reach explanations of Pakistani behaviour without looking at things through an Islamic/jihad filter.

It is psychological yes - but it is religious-Islamic-psychological.

Shiv,

Certainly, but my analytical framework requires me to understand how much the goat's fear that it is living near a wolf is due to a real wolf, versus an imaginary wolf. Since it appears so far to be an imaginary wolf, next is the explanations of the imaginary wolf. And ultimately it would be interesting, I think, to understand Pakistani estimates both of Indian capabilities and of Indian intentions. That is, the imaginary wolf arises in their beliefs of Indian intentions, and their fear of it arises from their beliefs about Indian capabilities, and their own weaknesses.

-Arun

partha · Post by **partha** » 02 Jun 2014 03:24

Army hack Wajahat Khan writes -

http://tns.thenews.com.pk/military-oper ... aziristan/

Blame the lack of military drama on the talks, for they have worked. The “Talk-Terror-Airstrike” triangle did the trick. The Mehsuds — the TTP’s foot soldiers — are now on the side of the government. They like the talks and are against Fazlullah, who they’ve been uncomfortable with for being a non-Mehsud, and who they are now associating with “foreign elements”: a major victory for Aabpara. In the ensuing breakdown, another major player — Hafiz Gul Bahadur, who was always pro-Pakistan — has been forced to operate like a tribal nationalist and walked away from his 2007 peace agreement with the army. For Bahadur, that was the gentlemanly thing to do; he didn’t have the capacity to deliver his side of the bargain — control the foreigners and nihilists — and thus chose the third option given to him by the army: lead, follow or get out of the way. That means that the militant umbrella stands tattered into blocs: Fazlullah, the Uzbeks, the Bahadur crew and the Mehsuds. And that’s a very broad generalisation. The Haqqanis are outliers, as there is buzz about the exit from North Waziristan Agency (NWA). In effect, for now, the south has been won. And it’s joining ranks with Rawalpindi to take the north.

That’s where we must cross Durand, where the Pakistani military, and especially the ISI, stand vindicated. They’ve helped deliver a safe and secure Afghan election. On paper, they’ve maintained a ruthlessly neutral stance in those polls and not openly sided with one candidate or another. They’ve survived the poison of Karzai’s barbs. They’ve killed the ‘do more’ narrative of Washington by doing the same thing, over and over again: covert support and protection for insurgent leaders vs selective intelligence sharing for certain insurgent movements, following its now perfected strategy of keeping the Afghan cauldron simmering, but not boiling over. Yet, they’ve managed to rebuild ties with the Pentagon and the State Department and smoothen out the flow of those Coalition Support Funds from Capitol Hill, less than two years after that famed half-apology over Salala by Hillary Clinton. They’ve also managed to highlight and then reduce India’s footprint in Afghanistan. And although they still haven’t been able to outspend New Delhi as it woos Kabul, they go unscratched when a Herat Consulate type of attack happens. They’re not eating cake, sure; but they’re not biting bullets either. And the radio chatter indicates that they like Raheel Sharif’s straight-shooting, team-playing Piffer swagger.
So what now? It’s simple: all eyes on the Afghan Taliban. We don’t know enough about them. Nobody does. But with President Obama announcing zero troops in Afghanistan by 2016, explaining the drawdown — literally in stages — the Afghan Talibs, who are the core of this insurgency, and who have real support in the Afghan south, are going to do something. It’s inevitable.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 02 Jun 2014 03:56

schinnas wrote:Shiv-ji, Peregrine-ji:
Regarding Chipanda's interest in Gwadar - do enlighten me (sincere ask - not rhetorical!). Is there any reason to think KKHighway and all the publicly promised heaven of 5 star hotels, ityadi to Pakis is everything? Given the supposedly rich natural resources in Balochistan, does it make sense for Chipanda to first secure an efficient captive port before securing exclusiving mining rights in Balochistan. If they can make mining operations work in unstable Afghanistan, why would Baloch be any difficult, especially if they have a fully controlled port close-by?

That aside, time will tell how successful KKHighway rebuilding project is going to be. My guess is we will know the answer is lot less than 20 years.

schinnas Ji :

I have not read any Articles from the Chinese Media extolling the importance of Gwadar to China’s International Trade.

The Crapistani highly intelligent Intelligentsia, Leadership and Opinion Makers have from time to time gushingly sung the virtues and importance to China’s Trade.

I have already given you the information in respect of the Central Asian Republics’ Trade. The Trade to be sourced through Gwadar in infinitesimal. As regards Xinjiang’s Trade pleas be guided by the following :

Xinjiang H1 foreign trade exceeds $10b, main partners in Central Asia

The foreign trade of Northwest China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region rose by 6.6 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2013, reaching $10.47 billion, local authorities said Thursday.

Statistics released by Urumqi Customs showed that Xinjiang exported $9.08 billion worth of goods in the first six months, up 24.6 percent from a year earlier, while imports stood at $1.39 billion, dropping 45.1 percent year-on-year.

Urumqi Customs said Central Asia remains the largest export destination for Xinjiang produce. Exports to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Tajikistan stood at $7.09 billion, accounting for 67.7 percent of the total foreign trade.

Exports to Southeast Asian countries' emerging markets, including Malaysia and Indonesia, saw a rising trend as well.

The volume of foreign trade with the US and Russia were $280 million and $220 million, down 35.2 and 34.7 percent, respectively.

Statistics also showed that private enterprises in Xinjiang have become the main force of the region's foreign trade. The foreign trade volume of these enterprises totaled $8.2 billion and accounted for 78 percent of the total foreign trade volume.

Urumqi Customs said the major exports from Xinjiang were labor-intensive products and mechanical and electrical goods, and major imported products included iron ore, crude oil, refined oil products and steel products

Here is some information for your perusal :

1. The trade to Singapore and Indonesia would be via Hong Kong as the distance from Hong Kong to Singapore is about 1,600 Miles and from Karachi about 2,800 Miles. One also feels that they could be sourced throughed the Myanmar Deep Water Port near Akyab.

2. Balochistan : Natural Resources : Had the quantum been of a considerable size then China would have taken over the Operations of Gwadar and not let it be given to the Port of Singapore Authority (I think February or Mar 2007)

3. The use of Gwadar for Oil and Natural Gas to China : Turkmenistan is already Exporting Oil and/or Natural Gas to China by a Pipeline. Thus further Imports by China of these commodities from Turkmenistan or Iran would follow this Route.

4. Do you have the “Truth about Gwadar – Part 2”. If not I can post it here.

Cheers

Shankk · Post by **Shankk** » 02 Jun 2014 07:54

schinnas wrote:That aside, time will tell how successful KKHighway rebuilding project is going to be. My guess is we will know the answer is lot less than 20 years.

Successful completion of KKHighway will also solve the so called core issue between India and Pakistan. Let the time and money be spent on this infrastructure, transport plans made, logistical support built, insurance cost calculated and then any misadventure in Kashmir will exponentially increase the cost on this project. Karakoram will then become India's jugular vein...after all Cashmere is a disputed land.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 02 Jun 2014 08:21

Hafiz saeed has announced a Ghazwa-e-hind conference in PoK on June 5

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 02 Jun 2014 08:49

schinnas wrote:Shiv-ji, Peregrine-ji:
Regarding Chipanda's interest in Gwadar - do enlighten me (sincere ask - not rhetorical!). Is there any reason to think KKHighway and all the publicly promised heaven of 5 star hotels, ityadi to Pakis is everything? Given the supposedly rich natural resources in Balochistan, does it make sense for Chipanda to first secure an efficient captive port before securing exclusiving mining rights in Balochistan. If they can make mining operations work in unstable Afghanistan, why would Baloch be any difficult, especially if they have a fully controlled port close-by?

That aside, time will tell how successful KKHighway rebuilding project is going to be. My guess is we will know the answer is lot less than 20 years.

The publicity is the problem. My reading of all things Pakistan is that many things are given plenty of publicity for many years before they do not occur. This is not a joke. Pakistanis (the army and the ruling elite) are masters of propaganda and good businessmen to boot. But the business they do is for themselves not the country. They attract investment/loans from outside while they skim money off the investments.

The way a series of Pakistani generals have done this with regards to arms purchases - is on record in Air Commodore Sajad Haider's autobiography. That apart, we have ourselves, on BRF followed up Pakistani stories of how Germany was going to invest in a MagLev train for Karachi (6-7 years ago) and some gulf country was going to invest and build the world's tallest building in Karachi. None of these have occurred in the stated timelines. Of course Pakistanis will argue that these things will happen in the course of time . Just like you have argued that the KKH/Gwadar development is healthy and thriving.

"Chinese investment" in Gwadar is an opportunity for land around Gwadar to be sold to speculators who hope to make money. It is also an opportunity to attract further contracts for road building etc from which Pakistani business houses can make money

So, from the Pakistani side there is absolutely no reason to put out news that is anything but optimistic and positive. The question that arises from here is as follows. If the Pakistanis are optimistic and positive, why am I cynical? Why should it be my business to be the sceptic about Pakistan rather than simply take the news at face value and believe everything that is put out from Pakistan. The reason is because nothing from Pakistan should be taken at face value. Everything needs to be examined for validity. And when I examine the positive news about Gwadar and the KKH I am not impressed. Things are not going anywhere in a hurry and the reasons stated aloud do not convince.

Imagine for a minute that the Chinese now have a captive port in Baluchistan and then they have captive mines in Baluchistan whose produce will be shipped to China via that port. Imagine that there is no conflict and the Baluchis are very happy with this situation. Now would you be able to say why a KKH is needed if the port is going to be the preferred route of transport?

There is only one stated reason for the creation of BOTH the Gwadar port and the Karakoram highway link - and that is ostensibly for the shipment of oil from the Persian Gulf to China so that the long sea lanes to China that can possibly be choked by India or the USA are bypassed. Pakistan is complicit in raising the fear among Chinese of India and the USA conspiring to cut off Chinese sea lanes. Fine, it is their prerogative to "sell" Gwadar to the Chinese as any good business person might want to do.

For oil to be shipped from the Persian Gulf to China, the sea route is cheaper. Only the fear of cutting oil supplies would make sense for the Gwadar-KKH-Xinjiang route. Since the Chinese are experts in completing large engineering projects quickly one needs to ask why the Gwadar port and KKH routes or even Chinese agreements for mining in Baluchistan have made little progress for a decade.

The problems lie where the rubber hits the road. Political control of Baluchistan by the Pakistani army and government is weak. Security for the Chinese is poor. Pakistan has no money to invest and Chinese investors are insecure because of political instability. Even if Gwadar port is completed - the actual transport up to the Pakistan-China border is faster and cheaper via Karachi.

Further problems start in the mountains between China and Pakistan. The Himalayas are "young" mountains and are not made of solid rock. They are crumbly. They are also at the border between the Indian plate and Asian plate so they are a seismic zone which is why we regularly read about earthquakes in the region. Roads are frequently blocked by landslides and are not cleared for weeks at a time because of inclement weather and harsh conditions at heights over 4.5 km. I am not saying this to mock Chinese engineering, wealth or resolve. It is just physically difficult to build and maintain roads in that region. Building is only one part of the story. Keeping it open is a different ball game.

Finally it would be wrong to avoid talking about political instability. There is political instability in Baluchistan and in Gilgit - at both the Pakistani ends of the route, And there is no security in between. Containers that arrive in Karachi are more secure and can reach the Pakistan-China border before and more safely than containers that arrive in Gwadar.

None these mean that China can never do Gwadar or that the KKH will never be completed. It only means that there are currently insurmountable or difficult to surmount obstacles in the way. Even if Chinese money and engineering solve the technical problems, the political and geophysical issues show no sign of abating. Like I said - I have been watching for over a decade.

I have stopped holding my breath. In 20 years i would be happy to see an independent Baluchistan and a road to China via Afghanistan, or even better - access for Central Asia and China via an Indo-Iranian port of Chabahar.

Anujan · Post by **Anujan** » 02 Jun 2014 10:22

The prisoner exchange: Five of the talibs for the US soldier seems to be pretty much a deal between Unkil and ISI. The deal could have also involved a promise of peaceful elections in Afghanistan as a pre-condition for the swap. Observers of the swap indicate that there was a real chain of communication from Qatar to Talibs inside Afghanistan to Representatives of Mullah Omar himself in Pakistan.