India-US Strategic News and Discussion

[CRamS]

Gurus, I'd like some insight into what this guy is saying regarding India's capabilities (bolded part) and reality that needs to be taken into account despite Modi wave

http://www.minyanville.com/sectors/glob ... 4/id/55213

Without pretending to have any specialist knowledge about India, it is a good guess that reality is about to set in. Sometime pretty soon, Modi will stop walking on water, and markets will realize that India is India -- a country where one in four adults cannot read and gross domestic product per capita, at $4,000 per year, is less than one-half of China's and about one-third of Brazil's. The flourishing Indian diaspora we rub shoulders with in America unfortunately represents just a sliver of the home country.

India has neither the exportable natural resources of Brazil and Russia nor, for the most part, the globally competitive export industries of China and the East Asian tigers . As a result, its current account deficit exceeded 4% of GDP last year. The outgoing government ran a budget deficit equivalent to 5.7% of GDP, driving inflation that remains stuck at 8% annually, despite interest rate hikes by India's respected central banker, Raghuram Rajan, a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund.

[Satya_anveshi]

That's not correct. Had not for US help, our position in 1962 would have been worser and we might not have got Chinese to vacate occupied territory. Kennedy was one US President who was genuine in wanting friendship with India that Nehru didnt reciprocate.

US - India relations became worse with advent of Nixon and Kissinger. Before Kennedy it was hit / miss as well.

There may be rearms of info on this but does this help?

[KLNMurthy]

That's not correct. Had not for US help, our position in 1962 would have been worser and we might not have got Chinese to vacate occupied territory. Kennedy was one US President who was genuine in wanting friendship with India that Nehru didnt reciprocate.

US - India relations became worse with advent of Nixon and Kissinger. Before Kennedy it was hit / miss as well.

There may be rearms of info on this but does this help?

The "Chou betrayed Nehru-garu and attacked India; thank God Kennedy and his glamorous wife came running to India's help like Lord Vishnu to Gajendra's aid" is a narrative that has dominated the thinking of a particular generation, and also influenced the thinking of subsequent generations.

It is a charming, sentimental and beautiful story in its own way, but it won't do as a pattern for Indo-US relationship. Nor will its obverse, which replaces the old Chou betrayal with the new POTUS betrayal, or the coming badmash betrayal.

All the wise uncles who sweetly bleat that "so-and-so is a good fellow wonlee, is even having Ganesha picture and yenjoyed uthappam in our hotal, but what he can do? His such-and-such department is simply anti-india no?" have to be firmly told to study Bhavagad-Gita and get a refresher on duty.

[Karan M]

KLNM bravo

[schinnas]

That's not correct. Had not for US help, our position in 1962 would have been worser and we might not have got Chinese to vacate occupied territory. Kennedy was one US President who was genuine in wanting friendship with India that Nehru didnt reciprocate.

US - India relations became worse with advent of Nixon and Kissinger. Before Kennedy it was hit / miss as well.

There may be rearms of info on this but does this help?

That article is about Nehru pleading, but Why do you think Kennedy didnt help?

[svinayak]

John F. Kennedy And India: A Tale OF JFK, Jackie, Nehru, Indira, Chinese Nuclear Strike, Goa And Saris


Goa is the key to understand Indo CHina war of 1962

Just prior to the invasion of Goa, Kennedy beseeched Nehru not to use force on the Portuguese territory in a personal letter (the two had formally met in Washington DC about six weeks earlier).

According to a report in the Times of India at the time, Kennedy did not question India’s territorial rights to Goa, but rather opposed the use of force to acquire it. Reportedly, Kennedy warned that aggression by India would make it look “belligerent” and would violate the peaceful principles espoused by Nehru’s mentor, Mahatma Gandhi who had died thirteen years prior.

"To the United States, India's efforts to bring the Goa question to a head at the present moment when bigger and more consequential problems are facing it appear somewhat inopportune,” TOI commented then. “It may harm [the western] allied cause, thus promoting [the] Communist cause elsewhere. The United States would like to see this possibility avoided.”

In a book called “Listening In: The Secret White House Recordings of John F Kennedy” written by Ted Widmer and Caroline Kennedy (the president’s daughter), Kennedy declared at a meeting in the Oval Office with defense aides, including McNamara and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Maxwell Davenport Taylor: "I don't think there's any doubt that this country [U.S.] is determined that we couldn't permit the Chinese to defeat the Indians. If we would, we might as well get out of South Korea and South Vietnam.”

McNamara answered his boss by clearly advocating the use of nuclear weapons against the Chinese.

"Before any substantial commitment to defend India against China is given, we should recognize that in order to carry out that commitment against any substantial Chinese attack, we would have to use nuclear weapons," McNamara stated on the audio recordings.

"Any large Chinese Communist attack on any part of that area would require the use of nuclear weapons by the U.S., and this is to be preferred over the introduction of large numbers of U.S. soldiers."

Shortly thereafter, Kennedy seemed to agree with the sentiment behind McNamara’s statement, but it is unclear if the president advocated the use of atomic weapons to protect India.

"We should defend India, and therefore we will defend India if she were attacked,” the president said.

Stephen Cohen, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington and an expert on South Asia, told the New York Times that Kennedy definitely harbored a pro-India position, although he suggests that McNamara proposed using nuclear weapons to shock the president into not doing anything on India’s behalf, or perhaps to avoid using any US soldiers in the region.

“[Kennedy] saw India as a natural balance to China,” Cohen told the paper. “That was not true of his advisers. My guess is that they didn't want to see American ground troops get involved in a war. We were tied up in Korea; we were worried about the Russians. And, conceivably, they said ‘nuclear’ because they didn't want him to do anything for India. That this was a way of raising the stakes so high as to make it not an option."

Indeed, in the tape, Taylor expressed his opposition to using US ground forces in any Indian-Chinese conflict, while asserting the expansionist dangers China posed.

"This is just one spectacular aspect of the overall problem of how to cope with Red China politically and militarily in the next decade,” Taylor told Kennedy: "I would hate to think that we would fight this on the ground in a non-nuclear way."

But other senior officials were clearly appalled by the idea of deploying nuclear weapons. Secretary of State Dean Rusk is heard on the tape telling the president that use of nuclear weapons would not be viewed favorably by allies in the west.

"I think we would be hard pressed to tell our own people why we are doing this with India when even the British won't do it or the Australians won't do it and the Canadians won't do it,” Rusk warned. “We need to have those other flags flying on these joint enterprises."

In addition, the under-secretary of state, George Ball, feared that any nuclear strike on China would alienate other East Asians.

"If there is a general appearance of a shift in strategy to the dependence on a nuclear defense against the Chinese in the Far East, we are going to inject into this whole world opinion the old bugaboo of being willing to use nuclear weapons against Asians," Ball said, referring to the atomic bombs dropped on Japan during the end of World War II.

Kennedy expert and author Robert Dallek explained to the Times that Kennedy likely feared the repercussions of the US using its nuclear arsenals, only 18 years after the devastation wrought on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

However, despite Kennedy’s apparently favorable geo-strategic attitudes toward India, he and his wife, Jackie, did not get along well with neither Nehru nor his daughter, Indira Gandhi.

In a book called “Jacqueline Kennedy: Historic Conversations on Life with John F. Kennedy,” which essentially consists of interviews with Jackie in early 1964, she claimed, among other things, that her husband bristled in Nehru’s company and called the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Washington in November 1961 one of the worst ever by a foreign head of state.

Jackie, in particular, disliked Nehru’s daughter, Indira, who accompanied her father to Washington.

Referring to a decision by JFK to separate the men from the women during dinner, Jackie said of Indira: "Well, of course, she hated that. She liked to be in with the men. And she is a real prune -- bitter, kind of pushy, horrible woman. You know, I just don't like her a bit. It always looks like she's been sucking a lemon.”

Strangely, just four months later, in March 1952, John and Jackie Kennedy visited India, where they were treated like royalty.

But if Jackie disliked Nehru and Indira, she was quite taken with Indian fashions, particularly the saris.

[Vayutuvan]

I am unable to come up with many reasons to put indo-US relations ahead of India- China, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Germany, France bilateral relations. One reason is we have a lot of Indian-Americans. Another is lot if our students come yo US for higher studies. Other than that what exactly US can give India that others cannot?

Some koochi koochi cute onlee talk won't cut it. Some US people like sarees, yoga, vegetarianism, and some Indians like pizza, coka cola, and iPhones won't cut it I feel. If it trade, yah India pays for what it wants and if it is profitable girl US they will sell or India takes its business elsewhere.

India had been cooperating and will continue to cooperate with all countries on an equal footing. It is in US' interest to get India as a counter to china but is utterly India's interest?

[UlanBatori]

This is June start. Is he not going to vijit any other nearby places b4 September? Like across Northern Arunachal? Or to Moscow while it is not freezing? Or SL?

[Prasad]

Bhutan. Excellent in summer I hear.

[KLNMurthy]

This is June start. Is he not going to vijit any other nearby places b4 September? Like across Northern Arunachal? Or to Moscow while it is not freezing? Or SL?

State visit to Dharmasala? One can always hope.
(Hoping that hope is not OT)

[UlanBatori]

My guess is that he might swing by Duplee City after, say, Singapore, Beijing, Tokyo and 'Roo-stan. Saves airfare that way, and reduces jet lag. The announcement will come after the announcements on the Duplee City Summit are made (i.e., now). Just basing this on sheer pragmatism (i.e., what I would do). It is what makes sense for a bijnejman conserving time, energy, money and Carbon Footprint.

Then on to Rio? Then Poodle-abad and Frogistan, or maybe Merkelistan and Moscow b4 returning. That eliminates all concerns about "leanings" etc and shows the priorities: 1. Indian Development (and security... note Hagel appt and DupliCity summit mainly to discuss expanded defenj bijnej), 2. Indian Bijnej..

But this may be too tiring and takes too long away from Dilli, so he may have to choose, and just relax in Atlanta for a couple of dins after DupleeCity and New York, and do the Rio-Durban-Trinidad trip later.

If you think back, it was the Hotel Owners' Association of America that originally invited him, which is when the CommiePakiEjs did their ruckus. The quick decision to put all that $%&^ behind him with the DupleeCity Summit shows that decisions are being made quickly based on the interests of those that matter, not all sorts of extraneous stuff and posturing.

Nothing seen so far that is not impressive, and no cause for
As for the SD clique, I think they are Paco-feed.

[ramana]

NY Times in their Fashion and Style have this blog on Modi Kurta. Look slike its the nehru jacket of this age!!!

Narendra Modi: A leader who is what he wears!

Enjoy.

[ramana]

John F. Kennedy And India: A Tale OF JFK, Jackie, Nehru, Indira, Chinese Nuclear Strike, Goa And Saris


Goa is the key to understand Indo CHina war of 1962

[....

However, despite Kennedy’s apparently favorable geo-strategic attitudes toward India, he and his wife, Jackie, did not get along well with neither Nehru nor his daughter, Indira Gandhi.

In a book called “Jacqueline Kennedy: Historic Conversations on Life with John F. Kennedy,” which essentially consists of interviews with Jackie in early 1964, she claimed, among other things, that her husband bristled in Nehru’s company and called the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Washington in November 1961 one of the worst ever by a foreign head of state.

Jackie, in particular, disliked Nehru’s daughter, Indira, who accompanied her father to Washington.

Referring to a decision by JFK to separate the men from the women during dinner, Jackie said of Indira: "Well, of course, she hated that. She liked to be in with the men. And she is a real prune -- bitter, kind of pushy, horrible woman. You know, I just don't like her a bit. It always looks like she's been sucking a lemon.”

Strangely, just four months later, in March 1952, John and Jackie Kennedy visited India, where they were treated like royalty.

But if Jackie disliked Nehru and Indira, she was quite taken with Indian fashions, particularly the saris.

Yet just a few years after the death of John Kennedy, Jackie went on a private visit to India and stayed with Mrs. Gandhi and there are pictures in the Life magazine commemorative edition on Jackie Kennedy's life. In fact of the 100 pictures about 8 are in India mostly with Nehru and Mrs Gandhi!!!

[nawabs]

Obama will offer a $10 trillion 'carrot' to Modi

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/oba ... ot-to-modi

[KrishnaK]

Or else, you will have large swathes of Indians who as "citizens of the world" will collude with US to further their interests at the expense of India's.

I'll worry less now that CRamS has pointed out our biggest flaw. You'll look out for us won't you buddy ? Keep the big bad US from subverting Indians and the Indians from colluding with the US.

[KrishnaK]

I am unable to come up with many reasons to put indo-US relations ahead of India- China, Japan, Russia, Brazil, Germany, France bilateral relations. One reason is we have a lot of Indian-Americans. Another is lot if our students come yo US for higher studies. Other than that what exactly US can give India that others cannot?

Hmm, let me think real hard, for it's a pretty tough question. How about this India's biggest trade partners. The country we have the largest surplus with is the US. It is a pity we don't trade more with the US.

Some koochi koochi cute onlee talk won't cut it. Some US people like sarees, yoga, vegetarianism, and some Indians like pizza, coka cola, and iPhones won't cut it I feel. If it trade, yah India pays for what it wants and if it is profitable girl US they will sell or India takes its business elsewhere.

Neither India nor for that matter the US is quite in the position of taking it's business elsewhere. All this, transactional, cold business onlee is bullshit and our forum gurus know that well. Else we wouldn't have forum admins getting butt hurt about DOOs not being allowed to work on obamacare.

India had been cooperating and will continue to cooperate with all countries on an equal footing. It is in US' interest to get India as a counter to china but is utterly India's interest?

In every which way, yes. Till as such time we can achieve our natural weight as an individual pole (a real one, not the NAM nonsense that Phillip likes to bleat on about) it is very important to buttress the US position against China. Doesn't mean we will become treaty allies with the Americans or support them on everything.

[Shanmukh]

Obama will offer a $10 trillion 'carrot' to Modi

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/oba ... ot-to-modi

Nalapat is a known Clinton-baiter, but also has a great fondness for the US. I would take that article with a pinch of salt. I am not sure how much is wishful thinking. Let us see what Barack Obama does. Time enough to celebrate once PotUS actually delivers something credible, rather than a lot of hot air.

[Hari Seldon]

^Obama, to be fair to him, is yet to deliver anything credible in either domestic US politics or in his phoren policy. There's good reason why he's been called an empty suit by people across the partisan divide in the khanate.

So I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for him to deliver on this $100000000000000000 opportunity towards some India-vindia. Only.

[UlanBatori]

10 Trillion? Dollar is going to crash that much?

[svinayak]

10 Trillion? Dollar is going to crash that much?

He He He

[UlanBatori]

So if I hear right, PM NaMo is going to vijit a) Bhutan b) Singapore? c) Tokyo all by July, then maybe somewhere else in August, then in September, Duplicity and Noo Yoik. Pragmatic schedule saying Bijnej eej Bijnej, not one based on "appearances".

[Prasad]

Brazil too I think, for a brics summit or something.

[Prem]

10 Trillion? Dollar is going to crash that much? :eek:He He He

Give Obama Break and big discount, One Trillion cash down will do for now.

[Philip]

The NAM is NOT nonsense.Global events have shown that the world today is multi-polar with more nations growing economically,militarily and refusing to accept the US's " Pax Americana".America strategically is in retreat and even its allies are looking at new linkages.India is not and cannot be a lackey,flunkey,doorman for any US led military alliance.We are not cannon fodder as we were in WW1 ( 1 M+),WW2 (2.5M),where our fighting men fought the white man's wars.We can establish close bi-lateral strategic ties ourselves and do not need the blessing and guidance of the White House,like Surrender Singh,who loved the role of being White House butler! Organisations like the SCO,BRICS,recently formed EEU,etc.,where trade may be done in currencies other than the once almighty $,is steadily chipping away at the US's dominance in global affairs.The recent $400B Russo-Sino gas deal ,Russo-NoKo trade in roubles,formation of the EEU,etc., are pointers to the changing scenario taking place.The BRICS mtg. in Brazil where the PM will meet the leaders of the member nations will be very significant.

Nevertheless,it is in the economic sphere that Indo-US relations must take off.I've always been a strong advocate of Indo-US eco ties,but eco ties that do not harm us like dumping GM crops,etc. onto us,which will make us totally subservient in agriculture when swadeshi has been our masthead for millennia. Similarly,ancient US N-tech/plants that threaten to derail our indigenous efforts at N-self-sufficiency according to Dr,Bhaba's roadmap,making us ever dependent upon foreign fuel for our proposed plants,should be avoided. We cannot dilute our N-Liability to please any firang supplier.Never forget Bhopal.There is huge scope for Indo-US eco growth,esp. in renewable energy,environmental tech.,water tech,infrastructure and building tech.,transportation,aerospace,IT,the list is endless.

In fact trade ties and corporate and personal relations will achieve much more than official relations,where the US establishment still suffers from the hangover that the world has to listen to it and obey.The DK affair and the visa ban on Mr.Modi underscores the US establishment's arrogance and insensitivity.Now that he is PM,his worst detractors are desperate to get their foot into the Indian door!

[Satya_anveshi]

Obama will offer a $10 trillion 'carrot' to Modi

India produces sufficient quantities of carrots and exports carrot halwa to US. So, Obama and team can stuff these carrots in their respective nether ends.

Total US National Debt is currently running at $17.5 Trillion and they are better off thinking how they want to pay their creditors and address this debt.

[Shreeman]

an article in wall street journal.

** Why don't you give the title of the article? It is "Mr. Modi goes to Washington". **

[KLNMurthy]

an article in wall street journal.

It is a subscriber article. Can you please post something informative, like a summary or quote?

[svinayak]

http://online.wsj.com/articles/sadanand ... 69822.html

[Nandu]

Search on chacha and click the link.

[Shreeman]

an article in wall street journal.

It is a subscriber article. Can you please post something informative, like a summary or quote?

Today the Obama administration seems to pretend that there was never any problem, while Mr. Modi has taken the high road when asked if his visa problems would harm Indian ties with the U.S. Before his election in May, Mr. Modi told the Times of India that "relations between the two countries cannot be determined or even remotely influenced by incidents related to individuals."

But in private, Modi advisors tend not to be nearly as charitable. Some view America's cold shoulder as a public humiliation of their leader that was eagerly grasped by his political opponents in the Congress Party, who wielded it as evidence that Mr. Modi was unfit to lead India.

To get the U.S.-India relationship to thrive doesn't require dwelling on this awkward backstory, but it does require acknowledging it. The simplest way is to ensure that Mr. Modi gets a welcome in Washington that not even his fiercest supporters can characterize as cold.

In 2009, Mr. Obama honored India's then-prime minister, Manmohan Singh, with his presidency's first state dinner. Mr. Singh also addressed a joint session of Congress, as did his predecessor, Atal Bihari Vajpayee (1998-2004). A similar welcome for Mr. Modi would go a long way toward ensuring that ties between New Delhi and Washington regain the natural warmth they enjoyed under Mr. Vajpayee, India's last BJP prime minister. Traditionally, BJP supporters don't carry the baggage of anti-Americanism that marked India's foreign policy during the Cold War, and that the left-of-center Congress Party has never fully shed. The people a genuine rapprochement with Mr. Modi would most upset in India—fundamentalist Islamic groups and assorted leftists—are those who anyway never miss an opportunity to spot an American conspiracy or denounce Uncle Sam's "neo-imperialism."

Enough sensible people in Washington and New Delhi know that the U.S.-India relationship matters more than any messy backstory concerning one man. But when that man is the most powerful person in India, with a legion of followers otherwise hardly predisposed toward America-bashing, then it makes sense for Washington to ensure that its outreach to Mr. Modi is given as much importance as the substance of bilateral relations. It's time to roll out the red carpet for Prime Minister Modi.

[anmol]

[RoyG]

Interesting. Policies will probably be close to what the book proposes.

[Rony]

Look at the profile picture of Carnegie South Asia. Is it Charminar ? If so, what message they want to convey ? I distrust US so much that all i think when it comes to them is CT.

https://twitter.com/CarnegieSAsia

Why do we need to depend on them to tell us what is right for India ? When was the last time a Chinese Finance minster said such a thing ?

‏@CarnegieSAsia
I am going to read every part of the book, will help us to do our job better @arunjaitley @CarnegieEndow 'Getting India Back on Track'

[RoyG]

I don't think we are depending on them for the bulk of our development. However, there may be a few areas in which a different POV may be helpful. I honestly feel that the US presidential model is something that we can adopt. We can take the best from that system and along with the best from ours and really bring about more efficient governance.

[Vayutuvan]

KrishnaK, it is in neither party's interest to not to improve relations. I am not sure what you are arguing for. If you are saying that India should swallow all indignities that continue to be heaped on the American friendly Indian right and it's very popular leader who is also massively mandated to deal with not just US but every it her country, then there cones a time that actually distancing from the US might be a good tactic till president Obama or some other decision maker who is driving India leaves office.

By the way, the link you provided does not only give no reason for India not to put the relationship only in transactional terms, it is actually irrelevant, unless, unless one breaks the import-export items down to the last detail and rebalances the portfolio. It would take sometime for the contracts to run out but this is the time to do it and once India starts on a oath of disengagement, then it us out of the hands of the US who placed their bets on the wrong horse in Indian elections.

I will let you have the last word for now.

[CRamS]

I'll worry less now that CRamS has pointed out our biggest flaw. You'll look out for us won't you buddy ? Keep the big bad US from subverting Indians and the Indians from colluding with the US.

You can laugh all you want boss, but while you do, introspect a bit on whose interests the "South Asia" gangs in US are serving, India's or US's?

[Vayutuvan]

Rony, I think you are ascribing softness to what is clearly diplomacy or even simply being polite on AJs part. He can't talk down a book the PM had just released can he? He might have said to those thinktankers "yeah yeah certainly. I will read it cover cover when I get time" so that they cn make few shekels.

[vic]

I don't mind Obama trying to make India 1000 Trillion dollar economy while wrecking his own but the first order of business has to be Police rape of AES and US Embassy officials evading Indian Taxes.

[RoyG]

I don't mind Obama trying to make India 1000 Trillion dollar economy while wrecking his own but the first order of business has to be Police rape of AES and US Embassy officials evading Indian Taxes.

He won't do anything. The time frame for action is long gone. Obama needs us more than we need them. If they want us to counter SCO they will have to give us some goodies. Sushma is also talking with the Chinese. We are going to play both sides and secure our neighborhood.

[KrishnaK]

The NAM is NOT nonsense

I'm pretty sure i've posted on these lines before, but it does feel good to do it again. Here's something to ease your delusions Phillip saar. From Swallowing the humiliation

Infuriated by India's criticism of American bombings of Hanoi and Haiphong in the course of the Vietnam War, the irascible Texan put food shipments on such a tight leash that India literally lived from ship to mouth. With every morsel we swallowed a little humiliation. When told that the Indians were saying exactly the same thing as the UN Secretary-General and the Pope were, Johnson had retorted: "The Pope and the Secretary-General do not need our wheat." Many in India started demanding that we should say no to American wheat. Sensibly, Indira Gandhi said nothing. Privately, she told some confidants: "If food imports stop, these ladies and gentlemen won't suffer. Only the poor would starve."

This when we were leading the NAM as an independent pole. That we managed to get the aid and continue with our policies is a tribute to our diplomacy and capacity to get what we want out of the US and good sense in the US.

What particularly irked the Americans was the Indian applause for a much smaller shipment of the Soviet wheat that had arrived much earlier.

The rest of your post is the usual arrant nonsense.

P.S. Incidentally there's a lot of anglosaxons have always favoured the muslims over hindoos grist for the mill in that article.