Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 02 Jul 2014 19:32

No need to bad mouth the French. Our banias still need to learn a few things from them for later. Thing is to get our damn planes FAST. We have already indulged in 2 decades of ass-dragging while IAF has been whittled down to dangerous levels. If we buy off the shelf, we give French more money > jobs > incentives to help us with loaners immediately. If we really want to, we could have 2 squadrons of Rafales in Indian colors sitting in NE in 3 months.

dinesh_kimar · Post by **dinesh_kimar** » 02 Jul 2014 19:35

To understand how the French will implement the contracted ToT in the Rafale deal, we need look no further than the Scorpene.

MDL was to re-learn "skills" lost in time, and with these skills we were to get back on track.

I still have doubts about MDL's ability to deliver. The deep understanding of technology might not have been adequately addressed by our people, and the top management may not have insisted.

People on BRF have proposed that :

1.Rafael's functions are at best complementary with other IAF assets.
2. Buy 2-3 squadrons off the shelf due to IAF concerns
3. The LCA is our future and the only way we will learn to build and integrate planes.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 19:36

Victor, sorry, you say "No need to bad mouth the French" and follow it up with "Our banias ".....so you are ok with bad mouthing a group of Indians while, one must not say anything against the lily white french, lest it be "bad mouthing". Ironic.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 02 Jul 2014 19:52

Karan M wrote:India went for the US instead. With all the other problems (sanctions etc) downstream. But a big portion of the immediate blame as purely Dassault's behavior.

History seems to be repeating itself.

You have the new Rafale makers playing arrogant hardball over prices, steadily reducing the support for the deal and you have the likes of Arthuro waltzing in, and telling us subpar folk on how we better buy the Rafale or else, and what is it that the IAF truly wants (as versus Indian/Russian stuff which is oh not so good) and we better behave or else.

“Unfortunately, Dassault doesn’t realize that political will and all the diplomatic efforts cannot overcome uncompetitive and unworkable commercial terms,” Sheikh Mohammed, who is also deputy supreme commander of the U.A.E.’s armed forces, said in a statement issued by state-run news agency WAM. (link)

_______________________________________

A Rafale order, however, was seen by the Emirati authorities as a political favor requested by Paris for domestic reasons.

"This is not a requirement," a Gulf source familiar with the talks said. "It was pushed as a political purchase."

Emirati authorities are unhappy with what they see as French industry's failure to "understand the political nature" of the deal.

That has led deep dissatisfaction in the United Arab Emirates with the entire package, including the terms, specifications and price.

"The price is ridiculous," the source said. (link)

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jul 2014 20:58

No need to bad mouth the French. Our banias still need to learn a few things from them for later.

Does it matter?

The question that will always remain on the table: Was this deal worth it?

Simple answer: No.

All that has happened - does not matter.

Is the Rafale replaceable with any other plane - does not matter.

Getting used to - does not matter.

Should India pay this much for *this* plane - is all that matters.

the answer seems to be: No. And, with a pragmatic government in place they are doing the right thing: revise the price.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 02 Jul 2014 21:20

Victor wrote:If we really want to, we could have 2 squadrons of Rafales in Indian colors sitting in NE in 3 months.

Not without a trained crew. That would be.. over 50 pilots? And it would take even longer to train the ground/support staff. Plus I'd imagine integration of domestic datalinks and IFF would be a prerequisite. Can't do that on aircraft borrowed from France. Fact is, there's simply no way for the IAF to receive it before 2017.

And if our priority is simply getting the numbers back up, a far better option is the EF T1. The RAF is retiring its 55 T1s early (from 2016), and Austria has another 15 that its finding hard to afford. These aren't exceptionally advanced and they have already expended half their service life, but you'll get them at bargain basement prices. Flog them hard and retire them along with our Mirages and MiGs. That way in 2030, the fleet can be standardized the fleet on three aircraft - Tejas, Su-30 and an FGFA, with the AMCA starting to enter service.

Of course that'll take some out-of-the-box thinking on the MoD/IAF's part, so I suppose its really an idle thought.

Will · Post by **Will** » 02 Jul 2014 21:41

Guys lets face it. We need a new aircraft and in nos as of yesterday. The LCA should be backed whole heartedly but the fact of the matter is that the MK2 is just not going to arrive in time. The MK 1 hasn't achieved FOC yet. The MK 2 is a virtually new aircraft and will take years of testing . Buy more Sukois, Migs, Rafales or whatever but get them now. If not in 5 years time the IAF will really be toothless.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 21:55

Will,

In which case, buy more Sukhois, and get the logistics in place for a larger fleet faster and buy more Tejas MK1s. Note:

The RFP lays down that the first aircraft is supplied within 36 months of the contract being signed and the 18th within 48 months. The 19th aircraft, the first to be assembled in India, will come within 54 months. Thereafter, there will be an incremental increase with the last aircraft to be delivered by 2020.

So, no Rafales in India before 2017. By when Tejas MK1 would easily have FOC'ed will be in production, and even a few MK2s should be flying around.

BTW, the 2020 claim for Rafale above is clearly BS - no way can the first Rafale be available in 2017 and the 126th by 2020. It will probably be 2025. Just see the Scorpene or the Sukhoi deals to see how real TOT goes as versus RFP aims.

In which case, Tejas MK1/Mk2, Super 30 and FGFA are a good alternative than going for the Rafale. And we'd have more money for both the FGFA and also the AMCA and the critical Army projects.

Over the past decade Army has got nothing. Right now, they need modernization too.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 21:57

Karan M wrote: At 80 aircraft the deal starts making less & less sense. Better pour the money into:

1. More Su-30s, Super 30 upgrade & better availability - get cracking on that as the first steps have been taken (ROH/warehouse at HAL) -start building up bases
2. More LCAs & LCA MK2 funding for extra weapons/gold plated EW
3. Support assets - more AWACS & IFR
4. More precision weapons

@ 8Bn - half the cost of the Rafale deal, I bet we can address each of the points 1-4 by getting a few more sq of Sukhois/Tejas in, plus more force multipliers & weaponry.

Tempting as the thought might be to scrap the rafale entirely, doubt that will happen for a couple of reasons:
Iaf need to diversify, all eggs in basket and all, and
Sour relations with a nation that has been and is supportive of India's interests. French would be certainly ticked with string ing them along, first with m2k purchase and now with rafale.

Some rafales may be bought (around 40 in the name of sfc requirement) and if Qatari deal goes through, some m2ks as well. Rest can be Tejas v0.1 along with tankers, Possibly, some scorpenes as well.

Might hurt iaf logistics but they have managed with worse before.

Will wrote:Guys lets face it. We need a new aircraft and in nos as of yesterday. The LCA should be backed whole heartedly but the fact of the matter is that the MK2 is just not going to arrive in time. The MK 1 hasn't achieved FOC yet. The MK 2 is a virtually new aircraft and will take years of testing . Buy more Sukois, Migs, Rafales or whatever but get them now. If not in 5 years time the IAF will really be toothless.

The Tejas mk1 is on the verge of foc, and barring some truly unfortunate debacle, should impress the iaf favorably, far more than the bison, which it tomtoms quite a bit. Can't see why they won't order 3-4 sqds more when they claim the situation is so dire. This will also keep Tejas lines humming and provide enough time for mk2 to mature.

Mihir · Post by **Mihir** » 02 Jul 2014 21:59

If we're going to limit the acquisition to two squadrons, I'm going to pull a Musharaffian Manoeuvre™, switch all my support to Viv S, and call for an off-the-shelf purchase of F-35s onlee.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 22:09

^ that would be truly paki

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 22:09

Cain Marko wrote:Tempting as the thought might be to scrap the rafale entirely, doubt that will happen for a couple of reasons:
Iaf need to diversify, all eggs in basket and all, and
Sour relations with a nation that has been and is supportive of India's interests. French would be certainly ticked with string ing them along, first with m2k purchase and now with rafale.

Not directed against you CM, but against all the media outlets which parrot this stuff, I dont' get this sour relations bit. Is India some two bit nation that can be dismissed because it exercises its sovereign right to cancel a deal? Did the UAE rejection or SoKo rejection or SG rejection of the Rafale sour relations? Why is it that we should be insecure?

Ah, France supported us in 1998. As if it was the defining moment of everything.

BTW, it was France which summoned Indian ambassadors over Kandhamal. Was this not direct interference in our internal affairs?
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 236910.cms

BHUBANESWAR: Over a year after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, apparently under pressure from French President Nicholas Sarkozy, described the Kandhamal violence as a "national shame", a five-member delegation from European countries on Monday interacted with the victims of last year's ethno-communal riots.

Envoys from Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Finland, currently touring Orissa to do a reality check on different issues, were closeted at the archbishop house here with 10 victims from Kandhamal, trying to cull information about the goings on in the tribal-dominated district.

What business do these folks have to indulge in such colonial era behavior & then at the same time do this? Of course, this was not a "national shame" for the French. Ethnic cleansing in other words.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/eur ... 17324.html

Look at the shamelessness which Sarkozy / French Govt displayed in the above matter.

Yet we are told, that it is India, which is somehow beholden to France for 1998. Because it did not "criticize us" for our nuke tests.

As if the French had no commercial interests in the matter plus their usual games with the US/Anglosaxon group as they put it.

So lets leave the pique stuff out, these guys are no saints.

Next, so they don't get the Rafale.

The French have products which are in the fray for.
1.SRSAM
2.Project 75I
3.LUH
4. TI upgrade - purchase of several thousand thermal imagers for Indian tanks, infantry and armored carriers

They have firms which are competing for many Indian commercial projects. Again, its up to them to play by our rules.

Some rafales may be bought (around 40 in the name of sfc requirement) and if Qatari deal goes through, some m2ks as well. Rest can be Tejas v0.1 along with tankers, Possibly, some scorpenes as well.

Might hurt iaf logistics but they have managed with worse before.

Why should we do all this jugaad bazi when 40 Rafales will do NOTHING for IAF or SFC in a real good fashion as versus a larger number of Sukhois and money spent on force protection/force multipliers.
This sort of stuff makes no sense.
We should just buy 60 JSFs if we want a silver bullet fleet.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 22:17

Mihir wrote:If we're going to limit the acquisition to two squadrons, I'm going to pull a Musharaffian Manoeuvre™, switch all my support to Viv S, and call for an off-the-shelf purchase of F-35s onlee.

No, it makes sense.
First, we are not going to get any Rafales before 2017.
Second, if we truly have to buy only a limited number of fighters of any sort & have to pay through the nose, lets spend it on all stealth airframes - both FGFA and JSF. Former comes with TOT.
Third, money saved goes directly to LCA & in future AMCA. I suspect, at the heart of the matter, even many of these rabid French folk who visit us & rant about how the Rafale is superior to everything the IAF has or will have - Su-30/Tejas/upgrades/AMCA/FGFA - actually suspect this. Even they can't quite figure out why the IAF is going for a three type force when it has a credible alternative in the Sukhoi and a domestic program which it should be supporting.
Hence, their periodic sojourns to convince us that the decision is because "other types are no good". That's the only reason even they can come up with for the IAF's spending spree.

At the end of the day, I was supporting this deal, like many here I presume, because at $10-12 Bn, it still seemed something which got us bang for the high buck. But now, its $16Bn. And we are hinted, its actually $20Bn. And to make it stay somewhat within "budget", lets cut to 80 airframes. All this while Dassault won't commit to working with HAL & wants to play the usual TOT games which we have had long experience of w/everyone else & exactly why we are asking for delivery guarantees.

If such is the case, spend local & buy abroad for a proper silver bullet fleet if silver bullets are what you are going for.

Also, the services now have to be told, in no uncertain terms that the days of the import candy shop are over. Israel, a much smaller nation than us, despite getting tons of money via FMS, spends its own local shekels on local & optimizes its spend appropriately.
China, which had technology two generations behind ours, is now catching up and is even ahead in some areas. It spent local massively.
Russia - local. France, local.

Its only Indian generals, air marshals et al who spend time in conferences etc and wail endlessly about how imports of the "next big toy" are necessary to match big bad China or defeat Pakistan. I mean, some of it becomes too funny. If the Indian posturing about "how we cannot match Pakistan unless Rafale is bought" was shown to a TSPAF Air Marshal, he would roll his eyes.

Some timepass articles appear about how "bad DPSUs" are responsible. How "private sector must be brought in". But we hear nothing concrete from the IAF about supporting a long term roadmap beyond Tejas & aerospace itself. Instead rtd IAF officers are sought to be parachuted in for heading DPSUs at the end of their tenure, with no long term planning evident.

Lets face it, the eNREGA scams have left the economy in a bad day. Candy shop purchases of golden toys from abroad need to be curtailed. Perhaps the services need to figure out a way to integrate themselves into national weapons development, like the US, French, Russians, Chinese - everyone else apart from them, have done to get what they need and when they need it. Merely playing the customer card won't do. For the millionth time, the Indian Navy gets its done with a mix of local & imports. The rest, don't and won't get involved. Perhaps its time GOI took a lead & laid down a proper policy and made the doers in each service get involved properly.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 22:29

Hmm, was not entirely aware of kandhamal business. That is infuriating. I recall a snub to pranab when he was defmin though, ya, if French want to be hoity toity, they may just be left with nothing.

There is of course the problem of too much dependence on roosi arms that iaf wants to avoid, and of course sanction possibility from the US, juggling act this. Typhoon anybody?

Nah, the bottom line, and I think.most jingos have said so before, is to get the services to buy desi. Of course, this.means some.accountability on part of psus as well. I can't wait for a kaveri based amca, even if it is.not totally 5 gen. None of this 6 gen stuff that they are talking about. Unless they pursue it as a r and d project with a separate development of a bird that iaf can get I n reasonable time.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 22:38

CM, not the only time. There have been many reports of how Euro/French ambassadors have been interfering with regards to 2002 & many other Indian internal affairs. They are all the same. EF, Gripen etc all the same in this regard

They want our money YET, they want to teach us subpar types how to behave. Colonialism never went away, and of course MMS & the other gungadeens like him kow towed to these worthies to score points against domestic rivals.

Now, the answer to too much dependence on Su-30 etc is to spend money more liberally on the Su-30 program and open it up with a liberal purse to L&T, Tata and everyone else to indigenize ALL items possible on the Sukhoi. And stock up on the few imported items. Its not rocket science.

Instead, the capex and opex starved IAF(while it wants to spend on golden Rafales) is now busy squeezing HAL, MiG etc to maintain spares stocks for it. Indigenization proceeds per the diktats of original agreements with Russia & transfers to HAL/SME partners but not radically.

Instead we spend money on multiple programs and go nuts attempting to manage all of them. How much did we spend on the Mirage upgrade exactly? Rs 11K Crore for fifty one aircraft (with no real long term TOT) versus the Rs 13-15K crore on the LCA till date w/around 14 protos etc.

Mind you, every other rtd IAF type has been complaining about "cost to nation" of the LCA program. Makes you wonder, doesn't it.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 02 Jul 2014 22:51

My understanding : Rafale deal or for that matter the MMRCA deal is important apart from augmenting the fleet strength , is to provide deep TOT, which helps in developing the aviation industry in the country, leverage these TOT for Mk.2 and future products.
Further having cutting edge tech as a baseline will provide a jump start to the aviation industry which with public-private partnership could be sustained for the long term leading to much advanced indigenous product (A 20 billion deal having 50% offset clause should help in this).

Target should be that this is the last fighter aircraft purchased from abroad (apart from the already discussed FGFA).

Simple business and national interest. Deal scrapping and relation going sour, make the scorpene sub count from 6 to 10, 4 EPR from Areva and 100 Airbus , relation back on track. Did India's relation get sour when France in pure business deal sold Augusta sub to Pakistan.
MMRCA for India should be pure business just like the French do, in terms of amount spent and hardware and tech received for the country.

Having 10 Rafales or 100 Rafales will be immaterial without deep TOT since at least the F 35 and Typhoon have similar capability and could be available off the shelf.

Mention about MMRCA killing Tejas, I don't see any article mentioning that Tejas development is delayed due to lack of fund (though Rafale deal is being delayed due to lack of fund). I believe even the budget for MK.2 is approved, so at least it is not the fund which is preventing the rollout of MK.2 proto or Mk.1 FOC or for that matter the SP.1 flying.
If IAF still flies Mig 21 then for sure it will be happier to fly Tejas, but please give them the already agreed Mk.1 aircrafts and if they don't fly it after that then all the complains are justified.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 23:01

Karan M wrote:CM, not the only time. There have been many reports of how Euro/French ambassadors have been interfering with regards to 2002 & many other Indian internal affairs. They are all the same. EF, Gripen etc all the same in this regard

They want our money YET, they want to teach us subpar types how to behave. Colonialism never went away, and of course MMS & the other gungadeens like him kow towed to these worthies to score points against domestic rivals.

Problem here is that there are different degrees of such behaviors from different countries. When it comes to sanctimonious BS, we can easily put the US on top, followed by other WASP types, and the Scandinavians. This is actually the strength of the French, I know, it is not saying much, but they offer the most operational independence for a non-russki product. IOWs, the IAF loves them and the silver bullet for the IAF is the Rafale. A JSF is an unthinkable for reasons above, expect massive amounts of gubogiri in terms of inspections, end user terms, and sanctimonious lectures to boot. The only way to entertain the JSF it seems, is to create a separation of the fleet - china vs. pak specific, the JSF naturally, goes to China specific IAF.

Now, the answer to too much dependence on Su-30 etc is to spend money more liberally on the Su-30 program and open it up with a liberal purse to L&T, Tata and everyone else to indigenize ALL items possible on the Sukhoi. And stock up on the few imported items. Its not rocket science.

If this is even theoretically possible, it should be attempted.

Instead, the capex and opex starved IAF(while it wants to spend on golden Rafales) is now busy squeezing HAL, MiG etc to maintain spares stocks for it. Indigenization proceeds per the diktats of original agreements with Russia & transfers to HAL/SME partners but not radically.

Instead we spend money on multiple programs and go nuts attempting to manage all of them. How much did we spend on the Mirage upgrade exactly? Rs 11K Crore for fifty one aircraft (with no real long term TOT) versus the Rs 13-15K crore on the LCA till date w/around 14 protos etc.

Mind you, every other rtd IAF type has been complaining about "cost to nation" of the LCA program. Makes you wonder, doesn't it.

Makes you scream is what it does. We need some Namo magic here - streamline the entire machinery, get the Chiefs on board, and get the technocrats to deliver.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jul 2014 23:02

Rafale deal or for that matter the MMRCA deal is important apart from augmenting the fleet strength , is to provide deep TOT, which helps in developing the aviation industry in the country, leverage these TOT for Mk.2 and future products.

That has not changed much, if it has at all.

What has changed is the cost.

Also, authuro, etc need to understand that no one is claiming that the rafale is a bad plane or that the Frecnh technology is undesirable - on the contrary. And, no one is claiming that the LCA or other alternatives 1:1 are a better option.

Just that when cost enters the picture the rafale becomes a bad investment (not a plane or tech). And the alternatives become better investments.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 23:09

dhiraj wrote:My understanding : Rafale deal or for that matter the MMRCA deal is important apart from augmenting the fleet strength , is to provide deep TOT, which helps in developing the aviation industry in the country, leverage these TOT for Mk.2 and future products.
Further having cutting edge tech as a baseline will provide a jump start to the aviation industry which with public-private partnership could be sustained for the long term leading to much advanced indigenous product (A 20 billion deal having 50% offset clause should help in this).

Target should be that this is the last fighter aircraft purchased from abroad (apart from the already discussed FGFA).

But then I thought this was the Tejas program's great contribution. I mean the LCA program's one outstanding success is how it has enabled us to jump generations and come up with a 4.5 gen fighter along with an aviation industry that is required to get the final product. What does the Rafale have that we can't get via current programs and the ongoing FGFA? Surely, Rafale is not so esoteric that it is leagues ahead of both, the Tejas AND the Pakfa? Indigenous aviation industry can be boosted by getting pvt. players more involved in Tejas as well as AMCA and FGFA. What does Rafale bring to the table here?

Simple business and national interest. Deal scrapping and relation going sour, make the scorpene sub count from 6 to 10, 4 EPR from Areva and 100 Airbus , relation back on track. Did India's relation get sour when France in pure business deal sold Augusta sub to Pakistan.
MMRCA for India should be pure business just like the French do, in terms of amount spent and hardware and tech received for the country.

Yes, well this was my point originally any way. Whether it is via token Rafales or Scorpenes or whatever.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 23:13

NRao wrote:Just that when cost enters the picture the rafale becomes a bad investment (not a plane or tech). And the alternatives become better investments.

What other alternatives are you talking about Sirji? Could it be the JSF?

Unfortunately, JSF is a non-contestant imho. Just look at what Fali Major said recently about Gripen/Saab being pushed off due to fear of US content. Decision makers absolutely go out of their way to keep their products free of US masala it seems, at least with the sword arm.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 02 Jul 2014 23:19

And the alternatives become better investments.

The alternatives are looking better right now since no negotiations are ongoing with the alternatives.
Start such a negotiation and then there may be other problems.

Want a simplified and quick deal: We go to US , make a request for off-the shelf F 35 @75 Million as suggested by some in this forum with delivery from > 2019, make an agreement with US for yearly support of F 35 fleet under the ambit of US laws

Happy flying but please consult us when you plan to bomb someplace

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 02 Jul 2014 23:22

Karan M wrote: So, no Rafales in India before 2017.

The deal most likely will not get signed before the start of FY 2015, so first full squadron can be expected only by 2019. Then add the time(months maybe a few years ) it will take many to actually achieve FoC in service.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 23:26

Dhiraj wrote:>>Having 10 Rafales or 100 Rafales will be immaterial without deep TOT since at least the F 35 and Typhoon have similar capability and could be available off the shelf.

What is this magical deep TOT? Where is it available? Will this deep TOT allow us to make AESA FCRs? Did the access to PSM-33 tech allow BEL to make Indian radars? Why is it that it took 2D Indra-1, Indra-2 et al for BEL to learn how to make Indian radars?

>>>Mention about MMRCA killing Tejas, I don't see any article mentioning that Tejas development is delayed due to lack of fund (though Rafale deal is being delayed due to lack of fund). I believe even the budget for MK.2 is approved, so at least it is not the fund which is preventing the rollout of MK.2 proto or Mk.1 FOC or for that matter the SP.1 flying. If IAF still flies Mig 21 then for sure it will be happier to fly Tejas, but please give them the already agreed Mk.1 aircrafts and if they don't fly it after that then all the complains are justified.

First, why is the current MK1 not indicated for more than 40 aircraft when a) it is going to be available b) its better than the MiG-27s & earlier MiG-21s

Even as it stood, without full envelope being opened up:

Air Commodore (Retd) Harish Nayani wrote: is a former LCA test pilot who has flown the MiG-21 Bison aircraft extensively and commanded a Bison squadron.

"There is absolutely no doubt that the Mk 1, even if limited to 20 alpha would be many magnitudes better than the venerable Bison on all fronts. Notably, handling, safety, pilot comfort, and performance in the subsonic and trans-sonic regimes."

Next regarding funds. Yes, its funded. But is it really to the ideal level & next, are the funds released in a timely fashion? So the program is "secured", but then delays are baked in via delays in release of funds. Those delays are used to justify imports.

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2012/03/d ... funds.html

Saraswat cited several new development projects that demanded immediate funding, specifically the short-range surface to air missile; the Arjun Mark II tank; the Tejas Mark II fighter; and the Agni-5 and Agni-6 nuclear-capable, long-range, ballistic missiles. “We request the honourable RM (raksha mantri) to consider higher allocation of funds for DRDO,” said Saraswat.

Mind you when more funds were asked for, several years back, it was SP Tyagi (of the IAF) who shot down the proposal and mocked it. SP Tyagi of course is now known for also pushing the LRSAM deal (for which he was a consultant) & which is yet to be delivered, over the Akash & also for other reasons (AWT deal, Siachen Track-2).
The point is that its not an infinite resource availability situation.

More funds for Rafale means less funds available for other programs as MoD does not have infinite funds. Mentioned here as well:

MoD sources suspect the IAF is undermining the FGFA to free up finances for buying 126 Rafale medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for an estimated $18 billion, an acquisition that has run into financial headwinds because of budgetary constraints. In October 2012, then IAF boss, Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne, announced the IAF would buy only 144 FGFAs instead of the 214 that were originally planned. Having cut the numbers, the IAF is now questioning the very benefit of co-developing the FGFA with Russia.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 059_1.html

There was after all, a proposal that to get the customers involvement- the services would have to pay part of the costs themselves.

When exports are talked of re: LCA to amortize the cost to the Indian exchequer (even if unlikely in the short term), another exCAS takes to the media to decry it.
https://twitter.com/SJha1618/status/483199577751707648

There is a mindset issue & we have to acknowledge it. Look through the rest of the above feed to see the budget allocated & programs being run.

Gross misallocations are the norm.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 23:29

dhiraj wrote:
And the alternatives become better investments.
The alternatives are looking better right now since no negotiations are ongoing with the alternatives.
Start such a negotiation and then there may be other problems.

Want a simplified and quick deal: We go to US , make a request for off-the shelf F 35 @75 Million as suggested by some in this forum with delivery from > 2019, make an agreement with US for yearly support of F 35 fleet under the ambit of US laws
Happy flying but please consult us when you plan to bomb someplace

Why do you need F35s alone? Why can't more Su-30s do? Whats the magic sauce of Rafale over Su-35 /FGFA whose tech can be leveraged for an upgrade as well.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jul 2014 23:40

Cockpit View Take Off of French Rafale & mid air-refuelling

BTW, why so many papers in the cockpit? Not pad, single paper, some electronic not pad, ........ stuffed all over.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jul 2014 23:41

Could it be the JSF?

Have never advocated the JSF (as good as it is - think it is the very best out there) for India.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Jul 2014 23:42

If the first Rafale is due by 2017 (if!), thats 3 years in which the Russians can certainly develop a workable AESA and have it ready for the Su-30 from the prototypes currently flying on the T-50.

The AESA is held up as the superiority of the Rafale (by team Rafale) over the Su-30, the EF, the Su-35 - in fact everything.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 23:47

Karan M wrote:First, why is the current MK1 not indicated for more than 40 aircraft when a) it is going to be available b) its better than the MiG-27s & earlier MiG-21s
Even as it stood, without full envelope being opened up:

Air Commodore (Retd) Harish Nayani wrote: is a former LCA test pilot who has flown the MiG-21 Bison aircraft extensively and commanded a Bison squadron.

"There is absolutely no doubt that the Mk 1, even if limited to 20 alpha would be many magnitudes better than the venerable Bison on all fronts. Notably, handling, safety, pilot comfort, and performance in the subsonic and trans-sonic regimes."

This sir, is what is truly aggravating. Why are no more orders coming forth for the Mk1? It is obviously a very capable platform relative to the the flogger, fishbeds, and probly jaguars. There are only 2-3 possibilities to IAF's dithering here (and when it comes to the Mk2 as well):
1) They have absolutely no trust in the US component in the Tejas - engine. If this is the case, their trepidation has to be respected considering that they know more than we do.
2) They are addicted to a diet of imports, preferably french. In which case, a quick trip to the rehab center is mandatory.
3) Petty bickering with PSUs such as HAL that has gone out of hand with swollen egos involved.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Jul 2014 23:49

If the first Rafale is due by 2017 (if!), thats 3 years in which the Russians can certainly develop a workable AESA

I am not aware of the details, but the argument is that by then the others - in three years - will make progress and maintain that delta between them and the Russians.

Which should be true.

Secondly at what cost?

I think India needs to have three "efforts":

1) To catch up and then maintain IAF numbers,
2) A solid R&D effort, and
3) A solid working relation to maintain 1 + 2

Else I just do not see much use of all these Rafale/Su/MiG/etc. They are only good to cater to #1

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Jul 2014 23:49

Karan M wrote:The AESA is held up as the superiority of the Rafale (by team Rafale) over the Su-30, the EF, the Su-35 - in fact everything.

Are you sure? I thought it was the invincible and invisible Spectra - when push comes to shove, it seems it is always the Spectra that makes the Rafale better than the best.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 02 Jul 2014 23:58

Karan M wrote:Why do you need F35s alone? Why can't more Su-30s do? Whats the magic sauce of Rafale over Su-35 /FGFA whose tech can be leveraged for an upgrade as well.

What I mentioned was "Rafale deal or for that matter the MMRCA deal " .
So yes I have been consistent in mentioning that Rafale is my favourite, but it does not matter if it could not be purchased because of high cost since if availability and money was not an issue my preference would be my all time favorite the YF 23 and B2.
Point is what I am interested is in the TOT received and it should be helpful enough to ensure that we develop a system with the massive $10 billion offset clause that it should be last imported fighter aircraft for IAF.
Regarding getting tech from Su 30/35, yes why not who is preventing HAL / DRDO from leveraging from such deals.

Regarding funds not being provided to DRDO. Fine NO funds no development . Simple . And in that case no announcement of new programs.
DRDO should mention that Mk.2 will have these features if we get this much money today. Problem is DRDO mentions that Mk.2 will have 5th gen tech by this timeline without mentioning that without this much money it will not be possible. Now who's fault is this. My opinion or there announcement.

I still fail to understand as to why in 2012 HAL realized that making a production line for Tejas is challenging job.

Regarding "When exports are talked of re: LCA to amortize the cost to the Indian exchequer"
Sir, tell me seriously do we need an exCAS to suggest that Tejas is not ready for export right NOW.

I don;t care who the source is , I am just interested in a quick development of Indian aviation industry and comparable to the best. It has not happened in the past, hope it happens in the very near future.
To augment the IAF fleet, buy any aircraft in quick time except for the J series one [though still consistent with Rafale

].

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 03 Jul 2014 00:24

Cain Marko wrote:IOWs, the IAF loves them and the silver bullet for the IAF is the Rafale.

The MMRCA was never intended to produce a 'silver bullet' aircraft. What they wanted was a Mirage 2000.

Besides, what is about the Rafale that makes it a silver bullet force? Doesn't have the stealth to penetrate too deep behind enemy lines. EW system is high end but mostly defensive. Radar performance is good but far from exceptional, limited as it is by its aperture size. Good endurance (with external tanks), but then our adversaries are right on the doorstep and we have plenty of forward air bases.

A JSF is an unthinkable for reasons above, expect massive amounts of gubogiri in terms of inspections, end user terms, and sanctimonious lectures to boot. The only way to entertain the JSF it seems, is to create a separation of the fleet - china vs. pak specific, the JSF naturally, goes to China specific IAF.

Is the PAF a worry?

PAF suspends “Air Force Development Plan 2025,” says report

By Mateen Haider
Published May 30, 2013 10:09pm

ISLAMABAD: Due to financial constraints and non release of funds by the federal government, the Pakistan Air force (PAF) has suspended its up gradation and development plan called “Air Force Development Plan 2025,” says a report of the Senate’s standing committee on defence Thursday.

The IAF can handle the Paks without any Rafales, F-35s, FGFAs etc. The current fleet with upgrades and a full quota of Sukhois is quite sufficient. Our problem is China. We're have been outnumbered for a while and that disparity is only accelerating.

The US' problem is also China and its quantitative and qualitative military advantage shrinking fast too, wherein the Chinese intend to dominate the region upto the 'First Island Chain' and project power upto the 'Second Island Chain' (and there's been talk of an eventual third island chain reaching upto Hawaii).

Point is, in a confrontation with China, we know which side the US will back. Can you say the same for Russia with its blossoming relationship with China?

Russia-China ties at highest level in history – Putin
China calls for new security pact with Russia, Iran
Russia and China Announce New Era of Military Cooperation

Is it different with France? Do 'historic' ties with India outweigh the economic leverage that China can bring to bear?

France: The embargo is anachronistic and must go; willing
to discuss timing but not conditionality because China would
not accept human rights conditionality; likewise would be
contradictory to enhance the Code of Conduct specifically for
China while also lifting the embargo; opposed also to making
Code of Conduct legally binding; wants issue to remain
political; opposed to sending it down to working groups.

Wikileaks

Twelve EU members debated the issue but only one country wanted the arms embargo to be lifted unconditionally. I have no doubt that France will fulfill its contractual obligations to India (unlike Taiwan which is retiring its unserviceable Mirage fleet after France cut off support in 2010). That said, it would be foolish to rely to any French support over and above that when it comes to China.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 03 Jul 2014 01:02

Dhiraj,in an issue over a year or two ago,I think in Vayu,the realisation that production of the LCA "was a technology in itself",had just dawned on HAL from one of its own boffins! As of now,from reports,the final series production prototype has yet to be frozen.All aircraft being built are thus "bespoke". HAL's limitations in R&D,design,production and quality are one major reason why the MMRCA and FGFA programmes are hanging fire. Its homegrown success can be seen in the BTT and IJT programmes. Until FOC is realised,the IAF is not going to put down its money for more aircraft,the first 40 ordered after it was armtwisted. Pak has already started local production of its more modest JF-17s by the way,which it intends to be the workhorse of its inventory.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 03 Jul 2014 01:09

dhiraj wrote:Point is what I am interested is in the TOT received and it should be helpful enough to ensure that we develop a system with the massive $10 billion offset clause that it should be last imported fighter aircraft for IAF.

Can you imagine the result if we invested $10 billion directly into the industry, instead of having Dassault dole it out piecemeal to Reliance & Co.?

The ministry of defence (MoD) has sanctioned Rs 1,556 crore for HAL's high-tech production line that aims to build 12 Tejas fighters each year. The funds will come from the IAF (25 per cent); the navy (25 per cent), while HAL will put up half the money.

Business Standard visited the new Tejas production line, an expansive 28,000-square metre facility in four massive hangars in HAL, Bangalore. Work is already underway on the first IAF order of 20 Tejas Mark I fighters, with an order for 20 more in the pipeline once the aircraft gets "final operational clearance" next year. The first two fighters being "series produced" - they are numbered SP-1 and SP-2 - are visibly taking shape. (link)

Rs 1,556 crore = $260 million.

What if you said - 'here's another $500 million, build two more of these production lines and keep them humming' ?

The first one appears to be taking more time than expected to set up. So be it. The second will come up faster and the third even faster. That's 12 x 3 = 36 aircraft per year by 2018. At that point, one can be diverted to Mk2 production while the other two continue with the Mk1. And you can have the Mk2 will have three lines producing over 50 aircraft per year by say 2022.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 03 Jul 2014 01:24

Viv S wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:IOWs, the IAF loves them and the silver bullet for the IAF is the Rafale.
The MMRCA was never intended to produce a 'silver bullet' aircraft. What they wanted was a Mirage 2000.

Yes, I thought so too but do note the "evolution" in POV of the IAF in favor of larger, twin engined birds as mentioned by Fali Major in a recent interview. Somewhere between 2005 and 2010, the IAF's perspective changed.

Besides, what is about the Rafale that makes it a silver bullet force? Doesn't have the stealth to penetrate too deep behind enemy lines. EW system is high end but mostly defensive. Radar performance is good but far from exceptional, limited as it is by its aperture size. Good endurance (with external tanks), but then our adversaries are right on the doorstep and we have plenty of forward air bases.

Don't disagree with you, I'll even go so far as to say, that all things being equal, I'd prefer a JSF over the Rafale in terms of pure features offered. But again, and this is the crux, the IAF loves its French fighters. And even if the Rafale might not be a silver bullet in terms of uber performance ala 5G a/c, it is certainly so in terms of price.

Is the PAF a worry?

Don't disagree with you here either, but a China specific JSF fleet is rather out of the box thinking, and with the entrenched POVs in mandarin world along with the IAF, might not be the most practical.

I have not been in favor of the MRCA deal for years now - thought it was a circus in 2009, it is now an incredibly expensive one. By the time the IAF actually sees the first MRCA sqd, it will be close to 2018, probably 2019. In that period, some extra Tejas/M2K/MiG-29M/Su-30MKI or any combination thereof could be purchased at a pittance to hold the falling numbers. Thereafter or thereabouts, the Pakfa/FGFA and Tejas Mk2 should come into play followed by the AMCA. Where then is the need for this MRCA?

Post 2019, large quantities of Tejas + Pakfa could be purchased till 2025. In effect, we are looking at well over 126 a/c of very high quality with 5gen and 4.5 gen features. Post 2025, the AMCA can be brought into play.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 03 Jul 2014 01:24

Mihir wrote:If we're going to limit the acquisition to two squadrons, I'm going to pull a Musharaffian Manoeuvre™, switch all my support to Viv S, and call for an off-the-shelf purchase of F-35s onlee.

Young Jedi...

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 03 Jul 2014 01:33

Philip wrote:Dhiraj,in an issue over a year or two ago,I think in Vayu,the realisation that production of the LCA "was a technology in itself",had just dawned on HAL from one of its own boffins! As of now,from reports,the final series production prototype has yet to be frozen.All aircraft being built are thus "bespoke". HAL's limitations in R&D,design,production and quality are one major reason why the MMRCA and FGFA programmes are hanging fire. Its homegrown success can be seen in the BTT and IJT programmes. Until FOC is realised,the IAF is not going to put down its money for more aircraft,the first 40 ordered after it was armtwisted. Pak has already started local production of its more modest JF-17s by the way,which it intends to be the workhorse of its inventory.

Philip, from all sources so far, the Mk1 is on the verge of FOC, perhaps early 2015. But it is very close - there seems to be no real technical challenge left to overcome. The last bit is just the integration of a BVR AAM and a new radome, and considering HAL's experience in doing the same with the Derby on the Shars and Jags, this should not be an issue.

Productionizing can be an issue - but not an insurmountable one. With adequate nos ordered, efficiencies can be created, consultants can be hired, and a large volume assembly could be set up in a short period of time. The orders after FOC are CRITICAL. IAF caution till now can perhaps be excused (and not easily considering the reviews from test pilots so far), but if IAF backs out then, it'll present some very serious questions.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 03 Jul 2014 01:38

Mihir wrote:If we're going to limit the acquisition to two squadrons, I'm going to pull a Musharaffian Manoeuvre™, switch all my support to Viv S, and call for an off-the-shelf purchase of F-35s onlee.

Et to brute!

We can now, officially, close the Turkey thread.

End if an era.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Jul 2014 01:41

dhiraj wrote:What I mentioned was "Rafale deal or for that matter the MMRCA deal " .
So yes I have been consistent in mentioning that Rafale is my favourite, but it does not matter if it could not be purchased because of high cost since if availability and money was not an issue my preference would be my all time favorite the YF 23 and B2.

You missed the point which is why do you need the MMRCA deal at $16-20 Bn, when there are alternate options available at less price. Rafale may be your favorite aircraft but thats not the issue here.

Point is what I am interested is in the TOT received and it should be helpful enough to ensure that we develop a system with the massive $10 billion offset clause that it should be last imported fighter aircraft for IAF.

It "should be"..is not an answer. How "will it", is the question when past track record shows the amount of time taken to absorb limited TOT makes the TOT very limited for own programs. Its called screwdriver tech for a reason.

Regarding getting tech from Su 30/35, yes why not who is preventing HAL / DRDO from leveraging from such deals.

Please see prior discussions on this topic on this board to understand the limitations of ToT. If you are not from a manufacturing or technology background, there are several detailed examples across several threads.

Regarding funds not being provided to DRDO. Fine NO funds no development . Simple . And in that case no announcement of new programs.
DRDO should mention that Mk.2 will have these features if we get this much money today. Problem is DRDO mentions that Mk.2 will have 5th gen tech by this timeline without mentioning that without this much money it will not be possible. Now who's fault is this. My opinion or there announcement.

Please point out where DRDO has mentioned LCA MK2 will have fifth gen tech.

What you are not acknowledging is that DRDO makes projections based on assured support from GOI. A link has been provided after you claimed there was no shortage of funds, to show that funds are NOT being made available in a timely manner. This is not a DRDO issue but a GOI issue.

I still fail to understand as to why in 2012 HAL realized that making a production line for Tejas is challenging job.

They knew it was a challenging job. They wanted the IAF to pay for it. The IAF wanted HAL to pay for it. Hence the fracas. Dont go by the media reports. Both sides wanted the other to take the hard decision of committing money.

Our PSUs are under GOI control. HAL has underspent on R&D, capex per clear instructions from the top and repatriated its money in the form of dividends to the MOD which passes it off to the MOF who uses that notional profit for NREGA type of scams. Look through financial statements/money transfers & you will understand the (grim) reality which is a black joke moreorless.

Regarding "When exports are talked of re: LCA to amortize the cost to the Indian exchequer"
Sir, tell me seriously do we need an exCAS to suggest that Tejas is not ready for export right NOW.

Irrelevant. His job is not to run down such efforts. Was the Typhoon ready when it was pitched to Singapore? Was the F-15SE even developed when pitched (and sold) to SoKo?

Its important to create a positive buzz about a product so that prospective customers get interested. They may or may not buy it today. They may not even buy the LCA but may buy an associated product thanks to positive perceptions of the LCA & Indian industry.

Instead we have our own people who revel in sabotaging even such limited efforts to sell our own products. It speaks volumes about their mindset & inability to work for the betterment of the system.

I don;t care who the source is , I am just interested in a quick development of Indian aviation industry and comparable to the best. It has not happened in the past, hope it happens in the very near future.

It will not happen by splurging $20 Bn on toys from abroad. It will happen if you spend it locally.

To augment the IAF fleet, buy any aircraft in quick time except for the J series one [though still consistent with Rafale ].

Buy Buy Buy from abroad - that is not an answer. That is what we have done and which is why Indian industry has not advanced.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 03 Jul 2014 01:50

Cain Marko wrote:Yes, I thought so too but do note the "evolution" in POV of the IAF in favor of larger, twin engined birds as mentioned by Fali Major in a recent interview. Somewhere between 2005 and 2010, the IAF's perspective changed.

True. But that change was driven by large sustained increases in available funding. And umm... the air's gone out of that balloon now.

Don't disagree with you, I'll even go so far as to say, that all things being equal, I'd prefer a JSF over the Rafale in terms of pure features offered. But again, and this is the crux, the IAF loves its French fighters. And even if the Rafale might not be a silver bullet in terms of uber performance ala 5G a/c, it is certainly so in terms of price.

Well, money rules. The IAF would like its Rafales, but fact is we can't afford them.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier warned of tough measures to improve country's financial health in comments interpreted to mean the government will raise fuel prices, cut subsidies and reduce wasteful spending. Fiscal deficit in first two months of the current fiscal year has reached 45.6% of budget estimates, indicating that the government has a tough task on its hand if it is to better the 4.5% of GDP deficit level achieved in FY14 and find funds to step up investments. - Economic Times

Don't disagree with you here either, but a China specific JSF fleet is rather out of the box thinking, and with the entrenched POVs in mandarin world along with the IAF, might not be the most practical.

Unfortunately, we can't afford 126 F-35s either. What we do have is amazingly cost effective Tejas Mk1 and a Mk2 with strong potential.

There have been suggestions about buying only two or three squadrons of the Rafale. I would consider the F-35 only for a similar high end purchase, to act as a force multiplier and intelligence asset. No rush though, it'll take a while for our financial state to improve and its price will only drop further.

Post 2019, large quantities of Tejas + Pakfa could be purchased till 2025. In effect, we are looking at well over 126 a/c of very high quality with 5gen and 4.5 gen features. Post 2025, the AMCA can be brought into play.

The PAK FA's capability in the deep penetration and ISR role is... unconvincing. It appears to rely more on power than sophistication. Frankly, I think HAL/DRDO have the capability of developing something similar. A scaled up AMCA could deliver the same. Anyway, this is a debate for another thread.