Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions

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Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

Viv S wrote:Good endurance (with external tanks), but then our adversaries are right on the doorstep and we have plenty of forward air bases.
Forward AFB are subject to attack from opponents especially from TBMs, CMs which are hard to detect/counter. Aim would be to use these forward AFB only for staging/recovery as required and organize from deeper within Indian mainland which is a plus of longer ranged aircraft like the Sukhoi.
Forward AFB are a legacy of the 200km ranged MiG-21 era.
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

VivS wrote:The PAK FA's capability in the deep penetration and ISR role is... unconvincing. It appears to rely more on power than sophistication. Frankly, I think HAL/DRDO have the capability of developing something similar. A scaled up AMCA could deliver the same. Anyway, this is a debate for another thread.
Disagree. NIIP, Russkaya Avionika, KNIRRTII & associated firms capabilities are fairly advanced and very credible. Their capabilities were never in doubt, funding was an issue post FSU breakup. Judging by what we got for the MKI, and what is on the Su-35 they will deliver world class performance with the FGFA given time & iterative improvement. And no, I don't buy the comments in the AS article about judging the final product by what's on the test bed.
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

Cain Marko wrote:
Karan M wrote:The AESA is held up as the superiority of the Rafale (by team Rafale) over the Su-30, the EF, the Su-35 - in fact everything.
Are you sure? I thought it was the invincible and invisible Spectra - when push comes to shove, it seems it is always the Spectra that makes the Rafale better than the best. :D
Spectra has AESA don't you know. ;)
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

To understand how mistaken or irrelevant the common assumptions about Russian avionics can be -

1. Take the Bars radar. They didn't have Tx/Rx GaAs foundries so they made a hybrid radar with multiple "sticks" for the receive path. Now, there is much "buzz" and hype about how the Europeans will put a radar on gimbals. The Russians did it with Bars & then Irbis - both offering wider FOV than with their PESA coverage alone & are moving to more efficient fixed forward & cheek arrays (avoids moving parts & reduces chances of breakage/reliability concerns). The Irbis BTW gets AN/APG-80 levels of SAR performance despite being a PESA set & has range coverage equal to several Block 2 AESAs WW and has superior FOV.

2. Today, the Russians are fielding a range of GBR AESA systems including last I checked, VHF AESA. They have a history of extensive deployment and understanding of ESA. Their weakness was in availability of foundries for mass production of AESA TRMs - they didnt want to leverage commercial foundries either. Now, they are investing in & have started making their own TRMs as well.

On average, folks don't get a simple thing. Europe/US are often fielding compact systems designed to fit into smaller platforms - cost effective yes. The Russians may make larger systems on account of being behind in compact electronics packaging. Yet, in performance, their systems are every bit as credible or even better than several of their peers. It would be a mistake to underestimate them.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Viv S »

Karan M wrote:
Viv S wrote:Good endurance (with external tanks), but then our adversaries are right on the doorstep and we have plenty of forward air bases.
Forward AFB are subject to attack from opponents especially from TBMs, CMs which are hard to detect/counter. Aim would be to use these forward AFB only for staging/recovery as required and organize from deeper within Indian mainland which is a plus of longer ranged aircraft like the Sukhoi.
Forward AFB are a legacy of the 200km ranged MiG-21 era.
Actually I meant airbases near borders, rather than spartan airstrips in forward areas as in '71. But coming to think of it, FABs do have potential. Our major airbases are also vulnerable to BM and CM strikes. A possible strategy here could be to create a surplus of FABs and saturate them with decoys. Plus fighters based there can function as first responders against CM barrages. Admittedly not a very polished idea but anyway.
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

I too meant Airbases near borders. The high number of forward AFB we have are because of our short ranged fighters. Also, the high number of SA-3s we have are because we couldnt get clearance for additional fighters! No less than 60 FUs!

Coming to vulnerability of AFB deeper inside. The opponent won't have infinite missiles. Also TBMs don't break down deterrence. Long ranged BMs - IRBMs can't be used easily to target AFB in the hinterlands.

Agree that we can use decoys etc - somehow the IAF hasn't cottoned onto such thinking which has been proven in multiple conflicts. Not publicly anyway.
Karan M
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

BTW, Russian EW:

http://www.janes.com/article/30625/duba ... ew-package
Dubai Airshow 2013: KNIRTI displays new Su-35 EW package
21 November 2013

Russia's Kaluga Scientific Research Institute for Radio Technology (KNIRTI) debuted a model of its newest electronic warfare (EW) system, destined for the Sukhoi Su-35, at the Dubai Airshow 2013.

The system, designated L-265M10-02, is a modernised version of the L-175VE Khibiny jammer installed on the Su-32/34 intermediate-range bomber. KNIRTI representatives explained to International Defence Review that the new jammer is more modular than the previous model. "In this newer variant, the centreline pod is optional and the aircraft can provide for its own self-protection with just the two wingtip pods."

However, the addition of a centreline pod can enable the host aircraft to serve as an escort jammer, working in accord with other systems built into the aircraft's tail 'stinger'.

And:
http://www.janes.com/article/36863/dsa- ... off-jammer

DSA 2014: Russia's KNIRTI unveils new stand-off jammer
16 April 2014

Russia's Kaluga Scientific Research Institute for Radio Technology (KNIRTI) presented the new L187AE electronic warfare (EW) system at the DSA exhibition in Kuala Lumpur.

The L187AE is a stand-off jammer that can fit inside Mil Mi-8/17 helicopters to provide protection against radar-guided missiles.

Like the Mi-17PGE jamming module it replaces, the L187AE relies on KNIRTI's traditional use of digital radio frequency memory (DRFM) and makes use of active electronically scanned arrays (AESAs), but also incorporates digital signal processing.

AESA technology, which Russia has developed and refined for several applications, including fighter aircraft radar sets, has become an important element of EW system designs as they allow for a larger electronic 'envelope' of protective cover, but reduce weight by allowing a smaller number of lighter, non-mechanically scanning antennas to be fitted on the aircraft acting as the jamming platform.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by abhik »

HAL's LCA production line is in the pathetic state that it is because it has no incentive to do so in the first place. Till date only 20 LCAs worth about 3k crores have been ordered with no guarantees on future orders. Compare this with 100k+ crores for the Rafale, most of which will in the end up going through HALs books.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

Its called screwdriver tech for a reason.
Yes and who is the biggest proponents of this tech in India. Why in the last 40 years they never understood that such screwdriver tech should be exploited for the betterment of the aviation industry. OK it was the government fault right.
They knew it was a challenging job. They wanted the IAF to pay for it. The IAF wanted HAL to pay for it. Hence the fracas. Dont go by the media reports.
Sorry this is about convinience of selective media report quote. But for now we leave it .

Regarding your point about creating positive buzz about Tejas . Yes I am all for it.

The problem that I still have is, that there is NO objective assesment on the DPSU's current capabilities and it is always mentioned that give money and DPSU will land you in moon tomorrow.
Sorry it does not work that way.

If DRDO/DPSU's can't develop tech then in right time then it is the fault of Government and lack of funds.However if they develop the tech then it is all because of the hard work of the scientist.
ISRO is better at least in terms of the fact that it accepted that it took them 20 years to develop cryo engine and there was no other excuse.

I beleive that there is a tendancy in the DPSU's that let's make tall claim and then try, if there is a delay then any way we go for import substitute since services cannot wait. Such tall claims does not help in building one's reputation for sure.
If I am not wrong then the Tejas Mk.1 radar is from Israel (with the name of JV) and right now DPSU has claimed that MK.2 will have indigenous AESA radar. Oh just realized we work on only cutting edge tech and so AESA and not the old gen radar.

Even in case of MMRCA deal, HAL is responsible for 70% of the indigenous manufacturing of the Rafale and I beleive there was serious battle for the work share.
Why does HAL not focus on Tejas and its production line if Rafale or MMRCA deal is of no use for it or is it that screwdriver tech is their comfort zone. With Tejas production line ready , is it the fault of IAF that Tejas is not being produced right now. Or is it that HAL also needs a minimum of 200 A/C order before it starts the production. Or is it waiting for the governments order to start production. If it adheres to all the government order then it should also not complain about the number of Tejas ordered and just start the production or is there some other excuse.
Convince me on this one and I agree to all your points without a question.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Philip »

I keep repeating the manner in which APJAK was duped about the LCA and made his infamous pronouncement in 2003 that "200 LCAs would be built by 2010).A decade+ on,even the first 20 haven't seen the light of day! Any wonder that the IAF is pulling out al stops for the raffy deal to be sealed.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

HAL's LCA production line is in the pathetic state that it is because it has no incentive to do so in the first place. Till date only 20 LCAs worth about 3k crores have been ordered with no guarantees on future orders.
HAL is not a private company where it has to answer the shareholders. So this argument that it needs an order of 100000 crore for LCA just like the Rafale before it starts manufacturing LCA for India , does not hold
Just make the first 20 LCA's and fly the Mk.2 proto in quick time and shut everyone's mouth. Simple
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

To abandon MMRCA at this stage would be to do away with IAF Doctrine of having Light/Medium/Heavy fleet , something they had proposed in MMRCA first avtar which was to purchase 126 M2K after Kargil on urgent basis.

Time and Tide has passed away but IAF is still going strong with the 3 Types of Fleet for reason best known to them.

Hence Cancelling of MMRCA is very unlikely at this stage with so much Time and Effort put in by all sides.I think we are very close to a decision of MMRCA and hence paid journalism is at work to delay/thwart the deal using different reasons.

I remember when we were about to sign the Scorpene deal there was a last minute offer by HDW to sell 6 Type 212 at cost of 4 but the then NDA government rejected it.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Singha »

no other AF in the world has a 3 tier architecture. most can afford onlee 1. and khan / russia has 2.

we can also afford only 2 and the 3 tier is just a window dressing to induct token nos of Tejas and kill it under the guise of further integration of rafale being logical and easy using the infra and monies spent on the first 126. the old T72 vs Arjun argument :mrgreen:

I dare say buying a shitload of smart munitions , refuelers and funding more AWACS is more of a force multiplier than 50 rafale...we will be kangal and would not be afford any cannon ammo also after the rafale bill is paid.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by deejay »

The argument that Rafale is expensive is justified. The argument that the IAF is out and out pushing for Rafale looks exaggerated especially since there was this whole contest between some worthy competitors (The IAF would really have to fool a lot of people to opt for one machine in a great line up) but when the argument is further stretched to say that IAF is going for Rafale at the cost of LCA it becomes difficult to digest.

The equipment our services carry are a result of a long process of procurements known more for their delays and 'pay backs' in the popular mind space. The equipment we manufacture at home are also long delayed but are yet to be accused of massive financial malpractices (and I hope that never happens) like in the case of imported stuff. This clearly brings out that the wrong set of people are some times able to make decisions which are contrary to Indian interests.

To summarily heap on the IAF the role of working against the induction of LCA is stretching things too far. There may be lobbies within (IAF) but the IAF is more than one lobby and shall be up and running long after a particular lobby is gone. I can say with absolute conviction that IAF in terms of LCA understands the deep significance and role for our purposes. The IAF has supported and will continue to support this plane at all costs. A few misplaced people or lobbies in action (within or outside the IAF) do not speak for the entire Air Force.

In a lot of articles recently pushing or cutting the Rafale deal IAF offrs have been quoted without being named. How convenient. Even if we accept that these comments were made by IAF officers, forum members can decide on the powers that IAF or any services actually has. Let us not forget in our country services cannot authorize even troop movements without informing the MOD. Please understand the future of LCA or Rafale lies more in the hand of MOD babus than IAF officers. The front is always the officers from the services but the strings will always be with the Babu. Sad but true.

If the Rafale is coming, check with the MOD; if it will cut the budgets for LCA, check with the FINMIN; if both suffer, check with the MOD. Don't make the mistake the babus want us to make. The IAF can only pester, it does not have authority to decide on imports. The IN could not buy batteries for subs because the Babus sat on it. The services won't have their rep on the pay commission which will decide their pay and perks. How in the world will babus let them play with $ 20 billion in the Rafale deal?

So, if you have sources in the MOD, check for the story there and not with what the IAF says. The Rafale deal go - no - go is currently being played around ('file -file' khelte hain) between MOD and FINMIN. The IAF is only called in to fill some technical gaps. That's it.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

Singha wrote:no other AF in the world has a 3 tier architecture. most can afford onlee 1. and khan / russia has 2.

we can also afford only 2 and the 3 tier is just a window dressing to induct token nos of Tejas and kill it under the guise of further integration of rafale being logical and easy using the infra and monies spent on the first 126. the old T72 vs Arjun argument :mrgreen:

I dare say buying a shitload of smart munitions , refuelers and funding more AWACS is more of a force multiplier than 50 rafale...we will be kangal and would not be afford any cannon ammo also after the rafale bill is paid.
Even though Khan and Russi might be operating 2 types but they also have many specialised aircraft for different roles and multiple supporting aircraft.

The 3 Tier thing is an IAF requirement or call it doctrine and that what they have been professing for a decade now.

If the drop MMRCA and buy more MKI or Tejas fleet then they will have to reevaluate their doctorine on force structure something thats not going to happen we havent even heard any murmurs of it.

In the long run having MMRCA would stream line the Airforce by replacing the Jags/Mig-27/M2K/mig-29 into single type all these are medium class fighter of the 80's and Tejas Mk1/Mk2 replacing Mig-21's , if you look at the Aircraft thats going to be number plated this decade and the sanction strength of ~ 40 squadron you still have a lot of aircraft to replace , Easily around 15 squadron ~ 300 Fighters.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

To abandon MMRCA at this stage would be to do away with IAF Doctrine of having Light/Medium/Heavy fleet , something they had proposed in MMRCA first avtar which was to purchase 126 M2K after Kargil on urgent basis.
* Is it cheaper to change the doctrine or would it be cheaper to continue with this expensive option? There is a cost for continueing with it and a cost for dropping it
* The new government is asking the right questions - they are at least facing the one bottom-line fact that the cost has crept from around $10-12 billion to somewhere around $20 billion
* Per the French FM, there are still areas to nail down. This does not seem to be a nearly-done-deal
* The new Gov is also asking the French to absorb some of the cost increases - by asking them to revise the cost

Also:
* I find the IAf position of "No plan B" to be ridiculous. They evaluate 6 planes and have no Plan B?
* What is this about not believing in the life-cycle-cost? Anyone know?
* IF there are so many details that were to-be-duscussed - by the previous group - what did they consider for the life-cycle cost? IMVVHO, the MoD + IAF goofed it up badly on the selection process
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by rohitvats »

Rafale or no Rafale, there needs to be a plan for arresting the falling number of IAF squadrons. And work towards adding the required number to take it to 42 Squadrons.

If Rafale is too expensive, may be we need to look at more Su-30 MKI or Su-35 even. And Tejas is not an alternative to purchase of whatever constitutes MMRCA. For a simple reason it will not pack the capability (due to dimensions) required to fight the kind of threat we are going to face in near future and which MMRCA is expected to address.

There is a doctrinal shift in terms of how IAF will fight the future war along Pakistan and Chinese borders - not to mention threat of two front war - and this will have impact on the heavies we will deploy.

Let us look at it this way - Before we woke up to Chinese threat and actually started working towards managing the dragon, IAF deployed a very limited number of fighter squadrons in north-east. IIRC, our main airbases in NE are Bagdogra, Hashimara, Tejpur and Chabua. Between these three airbases, I think IAF deployed like 7-8 squadrons of mainly Mig-21 and Mig-27 (please fill in with details here). I suspect this also included a conversion unit.

Going ahead, any conflict with Chinese would require heavy fighters to both take on the Chinese and take the battle into Tibet. Or Chinese mainland. The transition is already underway with Sukhoi making presence in Tejpur and Chabua. Once all Su-30 MKI are inducted, we're going to have between 12-14 squadrons. Given the known deployment plan of Su-30 squadrons in central and western India, it seems between Pune, Jodhpur, Halwara and Bareilly, IAF will deploy between 7-8 squadrons. Balance could see deployment in NE with responsibility of Peninsular India shared between these units.

Now, IMO this is how the situation will likely unfold:

- Su-30 MKI: 14 Squadrons which will partly replace some of the Mig-21/23/27 aircraft being phased out.
- Mig-29 and Mirage-2000: 3 x 2 = 6 Squadrons which post upgrade are likely to soldier on till 2025-2030.
- Jaguar: 6 Squadrons which are expected to be in service till 2025 time frame.
- MMRCA: 7 Squadrons - whatever type this is, this is required in parallel to Su-30 MKI to arrest the decline in falling Squadron numbers.
- Tejas: 9 Squadrons - to manage the transition of balance air force from Mig-21/27 series to a modern fighter.

Total: 42 Squadrons.

If Tejas achieves FOC by end 2014, I'm assuming first full fledged squadron should be in service by 2017-18 time frame. And if the news reports are to be believed about Rafale, first squadrons should come from Dassault by same time frame. And HAL is expected to finish delivery of last Su-30 MKI by 2019-2020.

So, between MMRCA and Tejas, both are required as per some strict timeline to ensure that IAF can first make up for the loss in Squadron strength and then add some additional squadrons. Otherwise, the way things are, IAF will be reduced to something like 30 Squadrons towards latter part of second half of this decade. Su-30 MKI is the only one going as per plan but it alone will not be able to answer the requirement.

Considering 18 a/c per squadron, 9 Tejas Squadron should translate into 162 aircraft for IAF. HAL has time till 2020 to ensure Tejas Mk-2 flies because by this time it IAF would be busy with taking delivery and absorbing 2 x Tejas Squadrons. And hopefully similar amount of MMRCA fighters. This will address the immediate requirement of numbers of a/c and squadron and give room for Tejas Mk-2 program.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

The IAF actually did not allow the Su-35 to participate because it considered it as heavy fighter along the lines of MKI so any talks of more MKI or Su-35 is a non-starter.

IAF has already added more MKI to drop the squadron strength not by equal numbers but more capability that MKI brings but there is a limit to how much numbers MKI can be added taking into account the operational cost of operating a heavy fighter for next 30 years.

Tejas has the issue of persistance and payload beyond a certain radius so even in Mk2 version it wont fill that role.

That probably leave the MMRCA and the selected one Rafale , the other option is to drop rafale and go for Eurofighter that would take another 2 years of protracted negotation and would end up at the same place so its a non starter. IAF is deliberately kept 2 US fighter from MMRCA race or say it did not meet the cut.

I think come November or March we should be done with MMRCA deal it has taken a long time and complex negotiation to sew the 1000 big and small thing such huge deal would involve from TOT to Local Production , just to make sure nothing is left out and nothing is left for interpretation.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

NRao wrote:* Is it cheaper to change the doctrine or would it be cheaper to continue with this expensive option? There is a cost for continueing with it and a cost for dropping it


Doctrine are formulated after careful planning of threat perception and it takes many years to plan and fine tune it , If IAF think they need a 3 tier force then there would have been lot of thought process involved from IAF/MOD.

After all IAF is not a rag tag airforce but a professional one with enormous roles and responsibilities.

Cost looks fine French equipment are inherently costly but inherently more reliable proved over many decades of service in IAF , If they have to pay it over 10 years then it is not a problem.

For better or worse if IAF says there is no Plan B then we got to take the Air Chief at his word.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

Austin wrote:
NRao wrote:* Is it cheaper to change the doctrine or would it be cheaper to continue with this expensive option? There is a cost for continueing with it and a cost for dropping it


Doctrine are formulated after careful planning of threat perception and it takes many years to plan and fine tune it , If IAF think they need a 3 tier force then there would have been lot of thought process involved from IAF/MOD.
So?

No matter what is done, not done, etc, they all have *cost* associated with it.

That years of careful planning is turning out to be too expensive.

Re-plan (if that is a less expensive option - not saying it is).
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by rohitvats »

All this goes to show the need to take timely action when need(s) are projected.

If IAF had the required 7-8 x Squadrons of M2K, IAF would have been sitting pretty with aircraft roll-over taken care of in timely manner. And this would have meant lesser pressure on Tejas. The next series to enter service would have been AMCA/FGFA combination. But alas! MOD and timely decision making don't go together...
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

Austin wrote: The IAF actually did not allow the Su-35 to participate because it considered it as heavy fighter along the lines of MKI so any talks of more MKI or Su-35 is a non-starter.
Understandably, on the part of the IAF, there would be reluctance to change. But that is the nature of this business - change is inherent to it. It will not be easy and risks will increase.

But, so will the cost. At $20 billion - and counting - this deal is not worth it. IF Rafales are the only option, then buy them off-the-shelf.

But outside of that everything should be back on the table and India *must* follow a reduced decision cycle here on out. This decision cycles are getting to be a joke.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

What is costing so much, the planes themselves or the "ToT"? I suspect the "ToT". Forget it. Let the IAF get the planes (so they do have to reboot on their "doctrine"). Kill the "ToT" - cost-saving.

{Q: will this 10 year old "doctrine" survive in 20-25 years? For the life of these Rafale?}

{Q: Will these Rafale be relevant in 20-25 years? Why would they need MLU?}
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by tushar_m »

There was some news a while back about sukhoi cheif talking about 200 more Su30 mki sale to India

So there maybe some contingency plan if rafale deal fell through(maybe with su35 upgrades or super sukhoi upgrades)
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by rohitvats »

NRao wrote: So?

No matter what is done, not done, etc, they all have *cost* associated with it. That years of careful planning is turning out to be too expensive. Re-plan (if that is a less expensive option - not saying it is).
That is a very cavalier way of addressing a fairly complex and serious question. But that is not surprising considering the general level of debate here. But anyways, we digress.

The threat matrix is there in front of us - it is up to us how we deal with it. Given our resources. And political direction and will.

The years of planning and fore-cast would have told the IAF what it will face in future and what is *BEST* required to address this threat adequately given the political directive. And resources. It presented that assessment along with a certain solution - Number of aircraft required, squadrons required and type of aircraft required. Not to forget that this projection would also have to cater for generational transition of air force and cater to replacement of aircrafts in service.

At a certain point in time, Mirage-2000-5 would have addressed the requirement. Both in terms of technology and numbers required to add muscle as well as allow for replacement of aircraft.

I gave a rough calculation in one of my previous post about force structure - Now consider this: If M2K had been approved after 1999, the whole lot would have been in IAF service. And ONLY Tejas would have been required to address the issue of numbers/squadron strength and transition to new a/c.

However, instead of one, now you've two variables - Tejas and MMRCA.

And hence, there is no Plan B for MMRCA - whether it is Rafale or Martian flying saucer or whatever else. Because situation has reached a dead end - if MMRCA is not bought, the nation needs to be ready for a possible 30 or 29 squadron air-force. Technology is separate matter in all together. The more pressing matter is about numbers.

The IAF has projected the threat perception as well as what they think is required to address the challenges - from both technology as well as numbers perspective. It is up to the political executive to take the call.

If GOI of the day feels India can only afford Tejas in whatever version, then so be it. IAF will make do with that and fight with that. I don't think there should be any doubt about it. It has happened in past, will happen in the future. If the country gets a whacking in a conflict in return, then be ready for that as well.

Or if we feel we can make do only with a cheaper candidate for MMRCA like Mig-29K or Mig-35 or lesser number of Rafale, than this is how it is. But there is a cost associated with everything. And we need to be ready to bear that cost.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Austin »

rohitvats wrote:All this goes to show the need to take timely action when need(s) are projected.

If IAF had the required 7-8 x Squadrons of M2K, IAF would have been sitting pretty with aircraft roll-over taken care of in timely manner. And this would have meant lesser pressure on Tejas. The next series to enter service would have been AMCA/FGFA combination. But alas! MOD and timely decision making don't go together...
Yes and its crux of the matter , Timely Purchase would have avoided many Operational Short Coming and equally important cost.

Had the NDA government purchased 126 M2K and lic produced it in India IAF would have been operationally prepared far better then it is now
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by member_23694 »

For all those talking about don't purchase Rafale because of cost , IAF making strange choices and indigenous development will be killed etc etc.

Found an interesting article by India Today and it should be around 1984 when the first Mirage 2000 was coming to India.

http://defencenews.in/defence-news-inte ... Kxd$$27bM=

Believe me reading the article will bring a sense of deja vu.

The plan was 40 outright purchase + 110 produced in India.

The French promised
There is also the unquestionable fact that the technology transfer being offered by the French for the Mirage production will offer HAL unrestricted access to state-of-the-art aircraft technology which could be later used for India's own future projects like the proposed Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) programme.
It would, for instance, give HAL engineers a firsthand knowledge of third generation aircraft technology like chemical etching and milling and, more important, the manufacture of components made from composite materials which are being billed as the future wonder material for aircraft production in the '90s because of its lighter weight and strength. The Mirage uses components built of carbon and boron fibre and this is one area where the Soviets are still far behind the West.
Other access would be to the advanced avionics and the fly-by-wire electrical flight control systems. But the main point the French are trying to hammer home is the industrial investment it represents for HAL and the Indian aeronautical industry.
The Soviets recommended its own Mig 29 and that time the argument was that Mig 29 is priced 5 crore and Mirage 2000 at 10 crore. Further Mig 29 will be much better like in present times it is mentioned about FGFA.

End result we bought some Mirage and some Mig 29 with no gain for Indigenous industry. Who is responsible ?
Fickle minded decision makers who thought that they made a smart decision during that time definitely lacked foresight. Would not a Mirage
production deal then helped the Tejas development and IAF would not have been suffering for lack of squadrons.

Such a smart decision then, for the sake of of Saving a few ruppes is proving to be 100 times more costly now .

Fast forward :
IAF I believe again in the late 1990's made a request for having a Mirage 2000 production line in India. Again no one heardand in another smart move went for MMRCA tender.

@2014 :
IAF is still wanting for fighter squardrons. French are again ready to provide the TOT. Cost again seems high and F 35 seems cheaper. Local aviation industry is still ready to take care of all the IAF's requirement with AMCA and Tejas MK.2. This time along with Russia others too are trying to provide an alternative.
IAF still does not think rationally compared to other smart decision makers as suggested by many.

And the story continues :!: :!:
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

rohitvats wrote:
NRao wrote: So?

No matter what is done, not done, etc, they all have *cost* associated with it. That years of careful planning is turning out to be too expensive. Re-plan (if that is a less expensive option - not saying it is).
That is a very cavalier way of addressing a fairly complex and serious question. But that is not surprising considering the general level of debate here.
Hmmmm...

Why?

{BTW, IAF is not the only entity that has gone through such exercises at these levels. Some of us have too.}
The threat matrix is there in front of us - it is up to us how we deal with it. Given our resources. And political direction and will.
I am sure the IAF/MoD/GoI have a great picture.

So, would that mean, with the IAF pretty much demanding the Rafale, that the threat matrix in 2020+ is the same as in early 2000? {Which is what you and Austin are saying.}
The years of planning and fore-cast would have told the IAF what it will face in future and what is *BEST* required to address this threat adequately given the political directive. And resources. It presented that assessment along with a certain solution - Number of aircraft required, squadrons required and type of aircraft required. Not to forget that this projection would also have to cater for generational transition of air force and cater to replacement of aircrafts in service.
Seem to have forgotten to add "cost" to that list. Absolutely no one (speaking from experience here) makes such decisions in a financial vacuum.

In fact, funds are so critical, that many a times they dictate situations. And, *when things are done properly*, they always do. {I agree this MMRCA decision making process left a lot to be desired.}

All that *planning*, etc are great, but if there are no funds to pay for it, what is the use?
At a certain point in time, Mirage-2000-5 would have addressed the requirement. Both in terms of technology and numbers required to add muscle as well as allow for replacement of aircraft.

I gave a rough calculation in one of my previous post about force structure - Now consider this: If M2K had been approved after 1999, the whole lot would have been in IAF service. And ONLY Tejas would have been required to address the issue of numbers/squadron strength and transition to new a/c.

However, instead of one, now you've two variables - Tejas and MMRCA.

And hence, there is no Plan B for MMRCA - whether it is Rafale or Martian flying saucer or whatever else. Because situation has reached a dead end - if MMRCA is not bought, the nation needs to be ready for a possible 30 or 29 squadron air-force. Technology is separate matter in all together. The more pressing matter is about numbers.

The IAF has projected the threat perception as well as what they think is required to address the challenges - from both technology as well as numbers perspective. It is up to the political executive to take the call.

If GOI of the day feels India can only afford Tejas in whatever version, then so be it. IAF will make do with that and fight with that. I don't think there should be any doubt about it. It has happened in past, will happen in the future. If the country gets a whacking in a conflict in return, then be ready for that as well.

Or if we feel we can make do only with a cheaper candidate for MMRCA like Mig-29K or Mig-35 or lesser number of Rafale, than this is how it is. But there is a cost associated with everything. And we need to be ready to bear that cost.
What-ifs are great (and I mean it), *but*, what about the future?


{Point is one cannot decouple the plan from the funds. Not possible without creating a larger risk. It just may work out - a very, very rich unknown Uncle dies and provides the funds, etc. But in a normal, text-book (yes there is such a thing) world, these are things that taught in schools, nothing rocket science about it.}
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by rohitvats »

^^^No one is decoupling the availability of funds aspect from what is best for India to meet the requirement.

The point is pretty simple - IAF makes recommendation with respect to the type and number of a/c required, GOI takes decision with respect to what can be afforded given the purse.

As for IAF making a decision in vacuum w/o taking into consideration the purse part - well, it is not IAF's mandate to begin with. Not with this purchase. Not with others which have happened in the past. Services give their projections in terms of what is required. The government works out the finances. And gives them what it feels it can afford.

IAF is pining for Rafale because it was selected after a due process authorized by GOI. GOI could have instructed IAF from Day 1 that it should not go for Eurofighter or Rafale because they're deemed too expensive. But it did nothing. IAF is asking for MMRCA to fill its requirement - let GOI take the call on what they can afford. Both in terms of numbers and type.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by rohitvats »

^^^You're perceiving the statement about 'No Plan B' only in terms of availability of Rafale as a solution.

IMO, the IAF statement is more in terms of number of a/c which will come under MMRCA or what-ever name you want to call it with. And this urgency stems from falling Squadron numbers - there is nothing you can do about the same apart from import a solution. Rafale brings with it certain technological advantage and in IAF's view it is the best solution in terms of type and technology required. One cannot forget that this system is expected to serve for next 25-30 years. And considering we don't change our fighter types that easily, it better be something which can hold its own during the aforementioned period. With upgrades, of course.

However, if tomorrow GOI says that we cannot afford Rafale at all and IAF needs to look for other aircraft - then that is how it will be. Simple. One way of arresting the Squadron decline is to lower the order size for NOW and ask for more to be delivered from Dassault factory line. And see how situation evolves in the future. Or, go with lesser costly option like SH.

Coming to decoupling - well, the IAF does not control the purse strings. One reason cited for delay in negotiations is that the point-man from PNC died during fag end of the whole exercise - and that delayed the whole exercise considerably till they found his replacement. In our system, Services don't control anything. The blame for delay lies with GOI.

IAF has presented the whole case to GOI - now the GOI in its wisdom needs to take the call.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

^^^^^

IF that is true, then it is decoupled.

It, especially in India (and elsewhere), was never meant to work that a way.

in a coupled situation (India was the first democratic nation to adopt "planning" - from teh Soviets, BTW), the day the cost of the MMRCA went - say - about 10% beyond the allocated target, they would have pulled the plug. And, a client (in this case the IAF) would have known this way ahead of time (which is why it surprises me that the IAF claimed they had no Plan B. As the cost escalated, the IAF should have started a Plan B. It is natural, expected reaction).

These are established ways - have been for nearly a century now. India adopted these mechanisms in the 1920s. !!!!!!!
The point is pretty simple - IAF makes recommendation with respect to the type and number of a/c required, GOI takes decision with respect to what can be afforded given the purse.
It is actually simpler than that. 60K view:

There is a group - typically within each entity - that constantly mediates between the their main Ministry (in this case the MoD/IAF) and the FinMin. It is the sole job of this group (in this case a group attached to the IAF within the MoD, the Navy and Army would have similar groups) is to maintain the sanity over the situation. This should be the group that ensures the success of a project - 1) That what a client (IAF) wants is well funded and 2) What the client is asking for is priced properly (that funds are not misused on one agency of the government and other government agencies are deprived of growth or are in some cases starving).

This rafale deal violates the second expectation.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

the IAF does not control the purse strings
Not expected to.

But, they are expected to (especially in the Indian situation) to "stand down" (if you will) if the cost escalates beyond a certain price point. Which is what the Modi government seems to be claiming too. and rightly so.

These mechanisms - as I have stated earlier - have been there in India for eons. Studied them decades ago.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by rohitvats »

NRao wrote:
the IAF does not control the purse strings
Not expected to. But, they are expected to (especially in the Indian situation) to "stand down" (if you will) if the cost escalates beyond a certain price point. Which is what the Modi government seems to be claiming too. and rightly so. These mechanisms - as I have stated earlier - have been there in India for eons. Studied them decades ago.
I don't think they've 'stood-up' to anyone in the government.

They've simply laid down their case to GOI and elaborated on the cons of not signing the deal in ASAP. It is for the GOI to bite the bullet and come up with a plan. Because finally, the security of the nation rests with PM acting through his council of ministers.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Sumeet »

Reminds me of 90s when we didn't have funds to buy anything great. Then came NDA's tenure which boosted out GDP and I had hoped that by 2010 we will have a big defense budget to make nice purchases abroad and fund sophisticated R&D internally across wide spectrum of technologies.

Thanks to 10 years of UPA misrule we are in this beggar state once more. This wasn't our destiny but self inflicted wound. Hope NDA can do what it did back then.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

The UPA govt led the IAF on a merry chase claiming there were funds. The IAF danced away in the expectation of the fanciest toys. And now here we are. There is no specific threat perception that only per se the Rafale satisfies. It is but the cheaper of the two best of the lot of five competitors. If it was purely driven by capabilities alone there would never have been two single engined types conpeting with the twin engined platforms. So yes, for facing threats the best would be better than the rest. But are the platform choices driven by deeper doctrine addressing specific threats, not really. Even the two best ranked as equivalent per reports are chalk and cheese. One, the EF is a hot rod AA type with limited multirole capabilities. The other the Rafale is a more versatile type with tradeoffs baked in. This assuming the MMRCA was a fair contest and the Rafale wasnt a secret pick.
Hard situation.
If the LCAs can do the bulk of the heavy lifting against Pak a stronger Flanker force against china is also possible. Dont see how Rafales would be that much better than an upgraded Flanker fleet.
16 Billion is a lot of money and lets face it, the claims it wilremain at that level are not accurate. Every deal we have had post purchase continues to rise as we add more bells and whistles. Factor in upgrade costs for the Rafale as well.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by NRao »

rohitvats wrote: I don't think they've 'stood-up' to anyone in the government.
Perhaps a bad choice of a word. But, the idea is that the IAF should have expected to select a Plan B after the cost escalated beyond an agreed to number. This is normal procedure/s.
They've simply laid down their case to GOI and elaborated on the cons of not signing the deal in ASAP. It is for the GOI to bite the bullet and come up with a plan. Because finally, the security of the nation rests with PM acting through his council of ministers.
* Sad, but true. Very, very, very sad that India - a nation that gave the rest of the democratic world "planning" - is today facing this predicament
* "security" includes financial security, on which the "security" of the rest depends. What would the services have to defend otherwise?
* Yes, this is a defense chat site, but one should not leave other aspects of a government out of the picture. A very bad mistake
* Finally, if the IAF/MoD had followed basic principles this predicament would not have arisen. That is what a "plan" is solely meant for - to protect all aspects/interests. How can a Service take a lot of time, invest so much effort on their own doctrine and totally neglect a major component in achieving the goal?

But, it is what it is.

c'est la vie.

:(
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by shiv »

Prediction. The Rafale will come and form a deep part of IAF for the next 30 years. One of the things I will say about my fellow SDREs is that they may be slow. But they are not stupid. A deal like this one has enough fine detail that really must not be concluded in a hurry - especially when both sides are trying to get the best possible deal for themselves.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by Karan M »

It also becomes a deal too big to fail. We havent walked away from any deal of this magnitude after so much effort iirc.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by deejay »

rohitvats: The north east has two Mig training facility or Units or Sqns as you may want to call them. One is at Tezpur - MOFTU (Mig Operational Flying Training Unit) and the other is OCU (Operational Conversion Unit) at Chabua.

Also won't 126 MMRCAs make 06 Sqns and not 07 Sqns and the surplus either going to war reserve or TACDE kind of formation?

I am guessing that the first two peninsula based sqns of LCA Mk I will replace MOFTU and OCU or OCU shall be one of them and MOFTU would become TOFTU with the rest of the LCAs being MKII and beyond for the Operational Sqns.
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Re: Raffy wins - Go Katrina!

Post by nachiket »

rohitvats wrote: ...
IAF is pining for Rafale because it was selected after a due process authorized by GOI. GOI could have instructed IAF from Day 1 that it should not go for Eurofighter or Rafale because they're deemed too expensive. But it did nothing. IAF is asking for MMRCA to fill its requirement - let GOI take the call on what they can afford. Both in terms of numbers and type.
The process itself is flawed in my opinion. It assumes that after the technical trials, the cheapest proposal among whoever is left can be afforded by the exchequer. This may not always be the case. Furthermore, since the financial bids aren't opened till the technical trials are over, there is no way to know beforehand if we can afford any of the bids which are left. The technical trials/disqualification process cannot happen in a vacuum without looking at the financial aspect from the beginning. The GoI had no clue whatsoever whether the funds they had allocated for the project would be enough for it, since the financial bids were kept sealed till the last stage. This can work for smaller deals where we can easily afford any of the competitors' products. For larger deals, this process is bound to fail sooner or later, as it seems to have for the MMRCA.

If the financial bids had been opened earlier, maybe the IAF and GoI could have come to a conclusion together to modify the ASQR because we couldn't afford a top of the line fighter and the cheaper alternatives already disqualified might have been able to stay in the game.
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