Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

[Philip]

How? When the SU-30MKI is in a short time going to be totally built from local material,70% indigenisation already achieved,MIG-29 engines being built here and the BMos missile programme is moving at an even faster pace. Even our very own bird,the LCA,is yet to be completely indigenous as this report indicates. IN 3 years time,the MKI will be 100% indigenous.

The foll. reports show that the MKI programe has gone "according to contract" with "70% indigenisation and 100% indigenisation of airframe and engine".The MKI is truly the backbone of the IAF and will be for decades to come.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... galore-lca

Light Combat Aircraft business partners decide to increase indigenisation
Aug 12, 2014, 03.44PM IST
(HAL Chairman R K Tyagi said…)

BANGALORE: The business partners working on India's prestigious Light Combat Aircraft - a lightweight multirole fighter jet - have decided to ensure the indigenous content of components used in the aircraft touches 80 per cent in the next three years.

At the indigenous strategic partners' meet of LCA organised by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited here, Scientific Adviser to Defence Minister, Avinash Chander said it is possible to achieve such a goal since 165 out of 344 Line Replacement Units (LRUs) are already made in India.

In his address to the vendors yesterday, representing around 50 companies, he pointed out that LCA dream had been achieved in-spite of denial of technology, according to an HAL release.

"It is clear that we have capability and the government will do everything possible to strengthen the knowledge base. Even funding can be provided and national facilities (such as testing) may be shared with private players to bring down costs to create a vibrant aerospace eco-system", he added.

HAL Chairman R K Tyagi said the production of LCA is on track with the creation of dedicated production division at HAL Bangalore.

"We are aiming to roll-out 16 LCAs every year from the initial target of eight per year. Having specific business partners on such an important project has been of great help", he added.

T Suvarna Raju, Director (Design and Development, HAL) in his address said coming together of stakeholders is necessary to understand and share the knowledge since India is poised to have its own fighter aircraft comparable to the best in the world.

Spares warehouse for MKIs:
http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/ia ... html[quote]
New Delhi: IAF chief Arup Raha on Saturday reviewed the state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Limited`s Su-30MKI combat aircraft manufacturing facilities in Nashik.

The IAF chief visited the facility along with Secretary (Defence Production) GS Pati and HAl chief RK Tyagi where he was briefed about new technologies in the Su-30MKI, level of technology absorption, establishment of facilities for Su-30 repair and overhaul and road map for indigenisation.
"The focus of the presentation was on actions taken and support being provided to IAF by HAL for enhancing the serviceability of Su-30MKI fleet," an HAL release said.

The IAF chief also inaugurated the warehouse for storing aggregates and spares of Su-30MKI aircraft and handed it over to Airforce Liaison Establishment, Nasik.

The warehouse is built by HAL with all the modern facilities required for storing all types of aggregates and spares required for future operations of the aircraft fleet.
"The IAF chief`s visit covered indigenisation cell, manufacturing facilities for 4.5 generation SU-30MKI aircraft, newly established repair and overhaul facilities, final assembly of Su-30MKI aircraft and flight testing hangar," HAL said.

The state-run PSU said presently HAL is manufacturing the aircraft from raw material phase and till date has produced 150 aircraft.

"HAL has manufactured approximately 43,000 components in airframe and 6,300 components for engines. Twenty six special technologies have been absorbed and mastered," it said.
PTI [/quote]

http://zeenews.india.com/news/nation/ia ... 37877.html

... till date has produced 150 aircraft. HAL has manufactured approximately 43,000 components in airframe and 6,300 components for engines. Twenty six special technologies have been absorbed and mastered. With this, 70% components are now made in India by HAL with 100% technology absorption as per the contract in airframe and engine.

It would be most interesting to see how 100% indigensiation is to be achieved by the Rafale deal,in what timefame as well.

[Victor]

What is the special 'deterrent' value that it has over the other means of delivering hurt to the enemy?

The deterrent value is (among other things I'm sure) the ability to deliver 2 punches instead of 1 in the same amount of time. The Rafale can carry a weapons load similar to the Sukhoi farther while being much smaller and cheaper to fly and maintain. The IAF has a pretty good feel for the comparative reliability, performance and economies of the Rafale due to experience with its stable mate the M2k on one hand and the Sukhoi and Russian aircraft in general on the other.

[Victor]

With this, 70% components are now made in India by HAL with 100% technology absorption as per the contract in airframe and engine.

Let's keep in mind that even with 90% made in India and 420% technology absorption, the production line can be shut down anytime by non availability of the critical 10%. This will remain true as long as we don't roll our own from engine on up.

[Victor]

Victor, your post is inaccurate... Please post combat radius for a similar loadout (specify the mission profile).

If you have more accurate info, please post.

Note that combat radius is less than half of ferry range.

I got my info from here:
Rafale
Combat radius: 1,852+ km (1,000+ nmi)

Su-30MKM
700 nmi unrefueled combat radius.

And btw, France just reneged on a contract on the Misttals for Russia.

And they were marketing Rafale to Libya just a few months before bombing the hell out of it for no good reason. More to the point: who hasn't screwed us? That's our condition as long as we are supplicants no matter who we depend on.

[Austin]

MK Range from Sukhoi

http://www.sukhoi.org/eng/planes/military/su30mk/lth/

Maximum flight range (with rockets 2xR-27R1, 2xR-73E launched at half distance):
- at sea level, km 1,270
- at height, km 3,000
- with one refuelling (at 1.500 kg fuel remaining), km 5,200
- with two refuellings in flight, km 8,000

[member_20317]

More to the point: who hasn't screwed us? That's our condition as long as we are supplicants no matter who we depend on.

Saying as a friend - Getting screwed by several more because the first one screwed us, does not sound like an option either.

As KaranM ji pointed out we do not represent the same problem for France as does Russia. Moreover I suspect even the Russians would be thanking the French for holding against the pressure for so long. And Mistral supply, seems to have been suspended only because wherever you look the qualifying words to the effect can be found.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29052599

http://en.ria.ru/russia/20140903/192611 ... fects.html

My take is - The French are well aware of the need to meet commitments. Which was the rationale against cancellation earlier too. French majboori seems to be that they cannot expect to be taken seriously within the white man's world if they begin to look conflicted to the white man.

[kmkraoind]

How much France invested in China. Will France sanction us if there is Indo-China tensions, because if they put their investments in China as their #1 concern.

[Philip]

France set up an entire Airbus-320 manufacturing line in China.That's just one big deal. Does anyone really think who France (under surrender-monkey Hollande) will support in an Indo-China spat if tit came to choosing a side?

Secondly,the MKI indigenous manufacture will be far better off with 100% indigenisation than even the LCA,which relies upon a US engine,Israeli radar and other components.3 years from now,the target is on;y 80% to be locally sourced.Absorbing the Rafale tech will take HAL at least 5 years after the deal is signed when local manufacture begins,that's around 2020.By then we would have as last stated,our first 5th-gen FGFA sqd. in service.

[Rien]

The Rafale, and the MCA both don't make sense as investments. If we are doing one, the other won't be funded. I would say it makes more sense to defund the Rafale, because of the cost. It was a great deal at the original price of $10 billion. It doesn't make sense now, and we have a lot of options.

As mentioned by Philip, we have FGFA as well in the pipeline. This is too many planes!

[NRao]

For whatever reason/s it took the MKI effort some 15 years to build all these nice MRO, spare, etc. Not even sure how much of what the Russians gave has been absorbed.

It will never take that long for the Rafale. In fact there should not be a lag at all. Besides the techs - I would think - are eons apart, the French being more advanced.

[NRao]

Only as a FYI, for those who think that $25 billion is nothing and that India has plenty in the kitty, here is an estimate to keep in your back pocket:

India needs $4.7 trillion over next 5 years for 7% growth: CII study

From what little I can see/know, the good news is that this GoI seems to be confident that they will achieve such goals. However, at the very same time, the same GoI is brutally aware that spending needs to be curtailed in order to achieve it.

I would expect some resolution for the MMRCA in a month or two, certainly be years end.

[member_28638]

The Rafale, and the MCA both don't make sense as investments. If we are doing one, the other won't be funded. I would say it makes more sense to defund the Rafale, because of the cost. It was a great deal at the original price of $10 billion. It doesn't make sense now, and we have a lot of options.

As mentioned by Philip, we have FGFA as well in the pipeline. This is too many planes!

Scrap the deal and give all those billions to Indian defense companies.

[Austin]

Saurav Jha ‏@SJha1618 ( twitter )

It's basically a flying club purchase. And HAL too has got the 'signal' so is busy getting ready for Rafale and FGFA.

[eklavya]

France set up an entire Airbus-320 manufacturing line in China.That's just one big deal. Does anyone really think who France (under surrender-monkey Hollande) will support in an Indo-China spat if tit came to choosing a side?

[brar_w]

France did not set up the line, Airbus did and it is a function of its corporate interests. The Chinese government buys commercial air-liners on behalf of its state airlines and therefore has a lot of influence in what concessions it gets from OEM's around the world.

[eklavya]

With its annexation of Crimea and invasion/impending de facto annexation of Eastern Ukraine (Novorossiya), Putin has destroyed his relationship with the West and is becoming deeply dependent on the Chinese. Its bad news for India.

I am sad about this, but we have to recognise the reality, Russia will become increasingly dependent on energy exports to China and capital from China.

Russia Asks China to Join Rosneft’s Second-Largest Oil Project

As Putin looks east, China and Russia sign $400-billion gas deal

[RoyG]

With its annexation of Crimea and invasion/impending de facto annexation of Eastern Ukraine (Novorossiya), Putin has destroyed his relationship with the West and is becoming deeply dependent on the Chinese. Its bad news for India.

I am sad about this, but we have to recognise the reality, Russia will become increasingly dependent on energy exports to China and capital from China.

Russia Asks China to Join Rosneft’s Second-Largest Oil Project

As Putin looks east, China and Russia sign $400-billion gas deal

I have been saying this for some time. We all knew this would happen when Russia took a junior role to China in the SCO. However, they will try and use India as a counterweight to China.

[srai]

With this, 70% components are now made in India by HAL with 100% technology absorption as per the contract in airframe and engine.

For whatever reason/s it took the MKI effort some 15 years to build all these nice MRO, spare, etc. Not even sure how much of what the Russians gave has been absorbed.

It will never take that long for the Rafale. In fact there should not be a lag at all. Besides the techs - I would think - are eons apart, the French being more advanced.

From the article Philip posted, it seems N011M Bars Radar and OLS-30 sensor were not part of the TOT. It seems most of the TOT were related to manufacture of parts and assembly of airframes and engines. Last I heard, processed raw materials, like titanium bars, are still being sourced from Russia.

Rafale will take as long as the MKI effort on indigenisation if not longer. TOT takes time to absorb and is more cost-effective to stagger TOT acquisition in phases. The MKI indigenisation process followed four distinct phases: (1) Direct fully assembled import, (2) Local assembly from imported CKD kits, (3) Local assembly from partially imported CKD kits and partially local manufactured parts, and (4) Local assembly from mostly locally manufactured parts with a lot of the high-end raw materials/LRUs still imported. This took around 15 years.

Now we are seeing the fifth phase, which is locally designed and manufactured parts replacing OEM parts. One example is the MRF tires. Maybe Indian made composites will eventually find its way on the MKI along with more indigenous avionics. The other area of indigenisation in this phase could be to source processed raw materials locally.

Beyond the absorption time, other things like how the TOT deal has been structured and the deadline for deliveries to the IAF would impact the timeline. OEMs don't like to part with their technology (especially "cutting-edge" ones), even if it has been negotiated. You can expect delays on this front as well. Time pressure to deliver the aircrafts to the IAF could mean forfeiting some of the more complex TOTs and source it directly from OEM to meet deadlines.

However, even with all of the TOTs that have come through the Su-30MKI when it is time to do MLU on it, Russian OEMs would need to be heavily involved. That is the main difference between home-grown fighter like the LCA vs TOT aircraft like the MKI. With the LCA, the design knowledge with all of the software, test data and facilities are available to do any number of tweaks and major MLUs. It is not possible to do that with the MKI even after 15 years of licenced production w/ TOT; besides, there are other restrictions imposed by IP.

[kmkraoind]

India Considers Buying 126 Eurofighters From Germany - RIA Novosti

The value of the possible contract is estimated at 7.6 billion euro (about $9.8 billion), according to the agency. Eurofighters are produced by the Bavaria-based Eurofighter GmbH company.

Is it just kite flying or real?

[krishnan]

thats a russian website , so

[tushar_m]

But again $9.8 billion is less than half we were expecting from rafale. ($22 billion last i heard)

could be because no one else is left there to buy these fighters in this quantity i.e 126 with possibility of up to 200.

[deejay]

But again $9.8 billion is less than half we were expecting from rafale. ($22 billion last i heard)

could be because no one else is left there to buy these fighters in this quantity i.e 126 with possibility of up to 200.

On another thread Rafale is at $30 Billion.

[member_28714]

But again $9.8 billion is less than half we were expecting from rafale. ($22 billion last i heard)

could be because no one else is left there to buy these fighters in this quantity i.e 126 with possibility of up to 200.

thats 80 million a plane? has to be some BS report. no way can ze germns afford to sell it that cheap.

[tushar_m]

EFT development cost = £37 billion = 59.66
Unit cost = £125m (including development + production costs) = $ 201.55m (all @ current $/£ rates)

Considering 600 units to be produced.
If development cost is divided then 60/600= $ 0.1 billion or $100m / unit (added to fighter cost)

Even if development cost is neglected then also $9.8/126 = $ 77m / unit is not justified.

The only thing is either the increase in number of units are pushing the cost down or Mr Modi being a tough negotiator needed some leverage to discuss the cost-cut issue with the Rafale people.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurofighte ... _and_costs

[member_28714]

If they sell it at less than $140 mil/plane, DGAD will need to investigate them for dumping.

[Ranjani Brow]

[nash]

^^^

that was really cool

[Victor]

India Considers Buying 126 Eurofighters From Germany - RIA Novosti

The value of the possible contract is estimated at 7.6 billion euro (about $9.8 billion), according to the agency. Eurofighters are produced by the Bavaria-based Eurofighter GmbH company.

Is it just kite flying or real?

Even Rafale would cost that much if we bought it off the shelf like this report suggests. This has always been the option that will allow us to plow funds into Kaveri and LCA/AMCA with private companies leading the charge. If true, Gujju NaMo is showing how to deal .

[arthuro]

Garuda report:

"Excellent, excellent, it would take more than an hour to talk about it," the reaction of the IAF chief after a flight aboard a Rafale speaks volumes. Efficient, impressive, ergonomic .. here are the words used by Indian pilots. Delighted to fly on Rafale, they were unanimous about its capabilities [...] "Hosting Rafale crews allows us to have an overview of its capabilities, and it's a outstanding aircraft," said Commodore Saju. [...] "I was impressed by its sensors, especially in BVR combat (beyond visual range)" says an Indian pilot. "When I flew with a Rafale for my first mission, I fully appreciated it. This is a very fine airplane whose construction and development are extraordinary ".
According to Commodore Singh, who flew back seat, "the avionics of the aircraft is well integrated. In dogfight, the sensation of acceleration is stronger than with SU-30MKI, the plane is lighter".

[NRao]

Garuda report:

"Excellent, excellent, it would take more than an hour to talk about it," the reaction of the IAF chief after a flight aboard a Rafale speaks volumes. Efficient, impressive, ergonomic .. here are the words used by Indian pilots. Delighted to fly on Rafale, they were unanimous about its capabilities [...] "Hosting Rafale crews allows us to have an overview of its capabilities, and it's a outstanding aircraft," said Commodore Saju. [...] "I was impressed by its sensors, especially in BVR combat (beyond visual range)" says an Indian pilot. "When I flew with a Rafale for my first mission, I fully appreciated it. This is a very fine airplane whose construction and development are extraordinary ".
According to Commodore Singh, who flew back seat, "the avionics of the aircraft is well integrated. In dogfight, the sensation of acceleration is stronger than with SU-30MKI, the plane is lighter".

Rafale is great.

And, the IAF is really, really desperate (That is what those quotes are about). (For an AF that "evaluated" it, these things should not come as a surprise.)





BUT, so is the Indian economy. Even at $20 billion, I am not too sure it is a deal. And, *that* is the issue. Again, not the plane.

[Philip]

Is the EF offer for real? If one can get either of the Eurocanards for around $10-12B,which is what the original figure seemed to be,it may go through.At $30B,one really has to protest to our PMji!

[Ganesh_S]

Here is something from a former Pak naval intelligence chief on kickbacks.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU21oucVRnE

Well if we seem to wonder why our import procurements are expensive, then perhaps we should be blaming ourselves. No wonder India should give a serious consideration on the offer EFT has made (If true). If we are serious about procurement costs, then EFT is the way to go. Doesn't compromise on operational requirements either.

[Ganesh_S]

Entire shortlisting drama has been played carefully, Including the staged exit of Dassault from the competition.

[Ganesh_S]

When it comes to international exports, It's not necessary that development costs are amortized. We SDRE's are simply being taken for a ride by the politico's.

[Ganesh_S]

We must accept the fact that our ruling elite and an entire bandwagon of bureaucracy considers kickbacks to be a legitimate part of their income. The norms are similar pretty much in every industry, it's simply worse in defense procurement.

[Deans]

What should the IAF's fall back plan be, if we don't go ahead with the Rafale ?

Having followed this and related threads from the outset, I had been in favour of quickly signing the deal but I'm increasingly uncertain this
will happen. If I look at it hypothetically from GOI's view - it is expensive (in absolute terms) and if we can manage with more SU-30's. LCA's,
Brahmos etc, till a FGFA is inducted, the Rafale may not be necessary.

[Austin]

We must accept the fact that our ruling elite and an entire bandwagon of bureaucracy considers kickbacks to be a legitimate part of their income. The norms are similar pretty much in every industry, it's simply worse in defense procurement.

True, Fact of Life in this part of the world

[merlin]

Those blaming the DRDO/ADA or IAS should also look at IAF. WE WANT is not the answer.
Capability building is also their PRIMARY concern. Blaming a bunch of corrupt babus or clueless MoD doesn't cut it.

Incorrect. Capability building is the nations primary concern. IAF does not care about it.

[deejay]

Those blaming the DRDO/ADA or IAS should also look at IAF. WE WANT is not the answer.
Capability building is also their PRIMARY concern. Blaming a bunch of corrupt babus or clueless MoD doesn't cut it.

Incorrect. Capability building is the nations primary concern. IAF does not care about it.

So the IAF is in the opposite camp?

[Yagnasri]

http://www.niticentral.com/2014/09/07/f ... 37454.html

Interesting ideas. Interesting that NitiCentral has a article of Sitaram Yechuri in it. He is asking us not to support PSU efforts

French can be asked to procure spare parts etc from here or asked to have their own company here for service and support under joint venture with any Indian company. May be a life time maintenance contract. But one thing is clear HAL will not be "mastering" the technology if this idea is accepted. We will get Rafale lot cheaply in that way. But we will not create a "high level manufacturing capabilities" in HAL.