Protesters in Pakistan have told the BBC they were paid to join rallies for "three or four days" but are now being denied permission to return home.
Nooooooooo.....oooooooo.....oooooo!!! <cough..cough..choke>Much of Mr Khan's support thinned out as the weeks wore on.
Something quite strange has happened in Pakistan in the last couple of days. Just when it seemed that it was all over for the civilian government led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, it seems to have bounced back. The all-powerful army has had to back off. This is the second time since the end of the last bout of military dictatorship in 2008 that the Pakistan army has lost the plot of getting rid of an elected civilian government - the first was the infamous Memogate in late 2012. Perhaps it is somewhat premature to claim that the civilian side of the civil military equation in Pakistan has gotten a tad more balanced in favour of the civilians, but that’s an impression that is increasingly inescapable.
Making any robust prediction about Pakistan is always fraught with risk. For months now it seemed it was curtains for Sharif. At the very least, his powers would be reduced to that of the head of a municipality. But suddenly just when it seemed that his game was up, Sharif seems to be coming out the winner. His challengers – the delusional Imran Khan and the fulminating cleric based in Canada, Tahirul Qadri, but in reality the ‘boys’ in Khaki – have been deflated and are now looking for some sort of face-saver.
It would be stretching the limits of credulity to even think that Sharif had gamed the whole scenario and played his cards deftly. With all the political and administrative goof-ups in the last few months, which fuelled this TV manufactured crisis and made it appear much larger than what it really was, what really turned the tide in Sharif’s favour was a combination of some smart and sensible thinking. For one not allowing blood to spill on the streets of Islamabad and thereby giving the ‘boys’ the justification they were looking for to step in. Second in resisting the enormous pressure that was brought on him to resign from the position of Prime Minister. To put it differently, Nawaz Sharif didn’t do what he was expected to do, i.e., crackdown on the protestors, and he did what he wasn’t expected to do, i.e., give in to the bulk of demands of the protestors which practically took the wind out of their sails and showed them up as unreasonable for continuing to agitate and demand the resignation of the Sharif brothers.
The attempt to use TV screens to manufacture a revolution collapsed when people just didn’t turn out in the numbers they were expected. Worse, apart from the pulp revolutionaries in Islamabad, the rest of Pakistan simply went about its business. There was no national level upsurge in other towns and cities of Pakistan. Almost all the political parties covering the entire political spectrum backed the government, thereby denying the conspirators the political space. But what really swung things around was the disclosure by the quintessential rebel in Pakistani politics, Javed Hashmi, that Imran Khan was taking instructions and was being guided by the ‘badge-bearers’. Coming as it did from the president of Imran Khan’s party, this disclosure pretty much exposed the entire plot.
From the time Imran Khan and Qadri announced their protest marches, the shadow of the army appeared to be behind this entire exercise. Those pointing the finger at the army had so solid proof except for circumstantial evidence. But Hashmi’s revelations forced the army to scurry for cover. What also spoiled things for the army were their own agents in the media overplaying their hand through clumsy disinformation campaigns. For instance, the army was deeply embarrassed by the fake story about how the Prime Minister was ready to put in his papers after some arm twisting by the army chief. Not only did such stories put off a whole lot of people, they also exposed the army’s hand in the sordid game that was being played out in the streets of Islamabad.
Nawaz Sharif did face a lot of criticism for involving the army directly, first when he handed over security of vital installations in Islamabad to the military and later when he asked the army chief to ‘facilitate’ (or mediate) a solution between the government and the protestors. In retrospect, however, this was a masterstroke (even if inadvertent) by Sharif. By following the dictum of ‘keep your friends close, and enemies closer’, Sharif pulled in the military but in a way that while the army was forced to show their hand, it didn’t have the space to play it. The army was also wrong-footed after Khan/Qadri supporters stormed the parliament and other sensitive government installations. This was supposed to be the tipping point, the climax of the entire drama. But by refusing to fire on the mob, the government outmanoeuvred the cynical politics that Imran Khan and Qadri were playing.
After this, the army was left with only a Hobson’s choice: it could either back down and retreat or it could step in and overthrow the government. That the army decided to step back is suggestive of a significant change in Pakistani politics. The army still retains the capability to destabilise a civilian government, but cannot dethrone it, not if the civilians hold their nerve, and not without an open coup. This emergent reality circumscribes the limits of the army's power, something that also became apparent during the Zardari years when despite the widespread unpopularity of the government, a hostile judiciary and an across-the-board unsympathetic media, the government managed to hold on till the end of its term. This is not to say that civilian supremacy has been established in Pakistan. Far from it, civil-military relations will continue to remain tense and tussle between the civilians and the military will continue with both sides trying to push the envelope and outmanoeuvre each other
The big question for now is whether Sharif will emerge stronger in relation to the army. It is entirely possible that having survived this big assault, Sharif might decide to buy his peace with the army. That is to say, he could reconcile to being the Mayor of Pakistan and let the army handle foreign, defence, security and even economic policy {This is what is going to happen, IMHO} . Alternatively, he could come to the conclusion that the army has done what it could do and that the coup option is easier to exercise but far more complex to sustain, especially given the horrendous problem that Pakistan faces.
If Sharif now plays his cards well - improves governance, makes his politics more responsive and inclusive, reaches out to opposition and his constituency, doesn’t remain aloof and keeps the parliament and political parties as his back – he could well change the power equations for good. Of course, doing all of the above will mean political compromises and populism which in turn involves avoiding tough but necessary economic and political reforms.
But for now, Nawaz Sharif is on top and the army is licking its wounds. Next time, and there will be a next time, things might be different because if circumstances change, outcomes of tamashas will also change. {Next time, the Army may decide to take things in its hands directly instead of relying upon bit players who are unable to muster even a fraction of the promised million marchers}
The rains have cooled the fervor. Situation was bending this way for a while. The chinese events as presented to us are are accidental and inconsequential. There is no realbreak in the army, just a lack of tools until the departures from afpak due this year. Nothing surprising if one reads the thread carefully. stakeholders still have their cakes, and are eating them as well.abhijitm wrote:Some things I observed
1. Unlike Kiyanahi CAOS Sharif does not seem to control paki army and ISI entirely.
2. I was observing body language of dimran and he seemed confident of the plan. He was pretty damn sure of the expected outcome. Something did not materialised. It seems some strong backdoor messages have been passed to the army by some 'friends'
3. Tallel fliend cancelled his meeting made me doubly sure that something is going to happen. Why it gives me a feeling that paki generals are split between fliend group and khan group. Khan group holding the ground this time.
4. a renegade group of generals tried to do Ukraine in pakiland. If true then this is best and worst for us.
5. Now NS knows the full reach of that group he might even try to strengthen his grip. What next for those generals? do another kargil or 26/11 or even worst?
Actually Modi is quite predictable and is using carrot and stick. If Pakistan behaves like a normal country, he is quite willing to talk to them and resolve outstanding issues. On the other hand, stunts like meeting the hurrirats and proclaiming "moral, political, diplomatic support" is bound to get the stick. Pakis need to be toilet trained this way.SSridhar wrote:Modi keeps Nawaz guessing. NS does not know how the wind would blow the next time. Pakistanis, so far used to predictable Indian behaviour, seem to find it difficult to handle this phenomenon. Pakistanis must be prepared to accept some Indian demands if they want a UNGA meeting. Pakistanis must understand that there is a price for everything and gone are the days of free lunch. Pakistan's allies must also feel the pinch.
As oppose to they did not have the control earlier? I believe the army always control foreign and security policy one way or other. NS has not done something drastic in that area that demands plot of this magnitude.Nandu wrote:TSPA has brought Nawaz down a notch, and gained absolute control over security and foreign policy.
Absolutely.Anujan wrote:This october, 5 of 11 crore kammandus are retiring along with ISI chief. Bad Sharif will have better control of his army when he puts in his chamchas into those positions. The current crore kammandus are Kayani appointments.
Sharif will do what the army tells him too. Don't get your hopes up.Anujan wrote:This october, 5 of 11 crore kammandus are retiring along with ISI chief. Bad Sharif will have better control of his army when he puts in his chamchas into those positions. The current crore kammandus are Kayani appointments.
Anujan wrote:^^^
Good Sharif is badmash. Bad Sharif is COAS Raheel Sharif
Ganja Sharif & Danda Sharif , Both are Gandha Sharif .abhijitm wrote:Anujan wrote:^^^
Good Sharif is badmash. Bad Sharif is COAS Raheel Sharif
Oh come on Shivji, what the hell can Sharif do? The army already played this fool against Immy and that mullah b@stard and they now look better than both of them. They'll halal this prick just like Bhutto if he steps out of line. He just takes the hits for the PA during bad times and then they roll in the tanks when things go above threshold level and pretend like they are the saviors of Pakistan.shiv wrote:Prediction: Modi will meet Nawaz Sharif. That will be an indirect strike against army influence in Pakistan.
Re. Extract from above link:A_Gupta wrote:Sharif's letter to Modi
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/0 ... r-valuable
Funny country the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Reaction to Indian offer of flood aid is for the IMF aided Islamic Republic of Pakistan is to pretend that it is not an IMF bailout aided economic basket case and do an equal = equal and offer India flood aid.“I am aware that the Kashmiris on the other side of the Line of Control have also faced heavy loss of life and material damage. Our thoughts and prayers are with the bereaved families in this difficult time, and we remain prepared to extend a helping hand, in whatever way possible, to the efforts for their relief and rehabilitation,”
Ajmal banned from bowling
In a huge blow to Pakistan, offspinner Saeed Ajmal has been banned from bowling in international cricket by the ICC.
"An independent analysis has found the bowling action of Pakistan's off-spinner Saeed Ajmal to be illegal and, as such, the player has been suspended from bowling in international cricket with immediate effect," an ICC release said. "The analysis revealed that all his deliveries exceeded the 15 degrees level of tolerance permitted under the regulations."
Your prediction may come true. But I think Modi isn't too interested in what message his meeting with Sharif will convey to anyone, let alone the army.shiv wrote:Prediction: Modi will meet Nawaz Sharif. That will be an indirect strike against army influence in Pakistan.
This is how I see it. The Pakistan army is careful to assess the mood of the population before a takeover. Whenever they have taken over Pakis have expressed delight and hope. This time around my own assessment (and I expect the Paki army's own assessment) is that they are not riding on a popularity wave. That apart the Paki army has its fingers in too many pies - with operation Arse-e-zubzub as well as keeping watch in the east. The Paki army currently lacks strength for a full fledged coup without at least the pretext of some civilian support. That support was supposed to have come in the form of Dimmy and Tuq. That has failed and Nawaz has emerged nominally stronger.RoyG wrote:Oh come on Shivji, what the hell can Sharif do? The army already played this fool against Immy and that mullah b@stard and they now look better than both of them. They'll halal this prick just like Bhutto if he steps out of line. He just takes the hits for the PA during bad times and then they roll in the tanks when things go above threshold level and pretend like they are the saviors of Pakistan.shiv wrote:Prediction: Modi will meet Nawaz Sharif. That will be an indirect strike against army influence in Pakistan.
Modi can't do anything to help the situation.
Lot of variables are at play. What is Modi-ji's gut instincts after sizing up Badmash in person will also play a role. PA's only reason for existence is persistent state of enmity with India and they do not care about rocking the boat. Their coffers are more full that way. Badmash on the other hand, still while wishing death to India silently has multiple things to worry about - such as electricity, bad Talibs, etc., and may be more interested in not rocking the boat. NaMo may not forget how PA and ISI planned the foiled Herat attack during his oath taking ceremony.Neela wrote:Your prediction may come true. But I think Modi isn't too interested in what message his meeting with Sharif will convey to anyone, let alone the army.shiv wrote:Prediction: Modi will meet Nawaz Sharif. That will be an indirect strike against army influence in Pakistan.
Modi gives a **** abt Pakis and their army . He will be concerned only about constant vigil to prevent further terrorist attacks. The huge investments that he intends to bring into India need a stable boat.
I agree with this assessment. The PA and the ISI could not have been so dumb to put their stakes and H&D behind men who on earlier occasions have proven to be politically comical. With the approaching Afghan situation, the PA wants the foreign policy decision making process wrested from the civilian government, especially Nawaz, and they engineered the riots and played the monkey between the two cats. They would have done this to any civilian government.Nandu wrote:TSPA has brought Nawaz down a notch, and gained absolute control over security and foreign policy.
That is what they wanted and they got it.
Dimran and Padri were used and discarded like condoms. They don't know it yet, but will eventually realize.
Pathetic quality of nanha recruits these days, it seems!Taliban militants attacked a Karachi naval dockyard in a weekend raid which left a Pakistani officer and two insurgents dead, officials said Tuesday.
An officer and six sailors were also wounded in the attack early Saturday on the high security facility, a navy spokesman said, adding that four attackers had been captured alive.
After interrogating the suspects, the navy said in a statement that intelligence agencies had carried out raids to arrest suspected collaborators and accomplices and had recovered "a large quantity of arms and ammunition".
The Pakistani Taliban on Tuesday claimed responsibility for the attack, claiming they had inside help.
"We claim responsibility for the attack on the navy in Karachi," spokesman Shahidullah Shahid told AFP.
"We had support from inside the naval force for this attack. This operation was successful because of this support. We will continue targeting security forces like this in future also," he added.
A_Gupta Ji :A_Gupta wrote:Sharif's letter to Modi
http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/national/0 ... r-valuable
AoA!!!!!!Brace yourselves for rhona dhona from across the border -
http://www.espncricinfo.com/pakistan/co ... 79257.html
Ajmal banned from bowling
In a huge blow to Pakistan, offspinner Saeed Ajmal has been banned from bowling in international cricket by the ICC.
"An independent analysis has found the bowling action of Pakistan's off-spinner Saeed Ajmal to be illegal and, as such, the player has been suspended from bowling in international cricket with immediate effect," an ICC release said. "The analysis revealed that all his deliveries exceeded the 15 degrees level of tolerance permitted under the regulations.
No, they are BSF.habal wrote:that looks to be bangladesh bdr camo.
Two people were shot dead on Lyari’s Mewa Shah road. The deceased persons — including a father and his four-year-old son — were killed when assailants opened fire while they were en route to school.
Separately, one person was gunned down in Orangi Town’s L-Block area. The identity of the deceased person could not be ascertained.
Meanwhile, a body bearing torture marks was recovered from Sher Shah Town near Gulbai Mazar area. The victim was tortured before being shot dead.
Added to dictionary. Please to suggest changes/improvements.Anujan wrote:^^^
Good Sharif is badmash. Bad Sharif is COAS Raheel Sharif
http://www.gettyimages.com/detail/news- ... /453633902sum wrote:^^ is the pic in the above article of BSF soldiers saluting?
Indian Border Security Force (BSF) soldiers salute during a flag hoisting ceremony to celebrate India's 68th Independence Day at the India-Pakistan Wagah border post on August 15, 2014.
Are there less comical characters available? Shrilleen is waiting on the bench right behind Dimmy.SSridhar wrote:I agree with this assessment. The PA and the ISI could not have been so dumb to put their stakes and H&D behind men who on earlier occasions have proven to be politically comical.Nandu wrote:TSPA has brought Nawaz down a notch, and gained absolute control over security and foreign policy.
That is what they wanted and they got it.
Dimran and Padri were used and discarded like condoms. They don't know it yet, but will eventually realize.
...
Anujan, India to the best of my knowledge hasn't wanted anything else. The problem is not our desire or lack thereof. It is not even their relationship with Pakistan IMO. The root of the problem is China is an paranoid country that deals with it's paranoia by becoming as inscrutable as possible. A country with the economic heft of China *has* to allow other countries access to various actors in it's political arena and other ways to get insight into their political development. Barring that, any powers that have to interact with it will be paranoid about Chinese intent. That will result in increasing Chinese paranoia about others ganging up on them. This is exactly how it will play out even if India were to roll over and show it's belly. Their proliferation to Pakistan was at a point when we posed absolutely no threat to them whatsoever. The larger and faster China grows, more the current co-existence will unravel. Unless they can manage to somehow make their polity more transparent in a gradual, stable fashion, China will remain a problem and our biggest threat, even if we were not to think of them that way.Anujan wrote:Why not. Like it or not, we are stuck with China. They are our neighbors and unlike Pakistan are succeeding as a country. Someone once said about diplomacy (paraphrased) that people think diplomacy as a quest to find some kind of moral closure. We are right and they are wrong and they should be taught a lesson. It is not about that. It is about negotiating peaceful coexistence for the future. I believe that India and China can coexist like Japan-China, SoKo-China or US-China. Not exactly friends, but not enemies either. More importantly each knows what they want with from the other and can agree to abide by the rules.
If we can cut Pakistan's support from under them, that would be a huge gain.
I think the game plan, which continues to be in play, was to file the murder case against ns for the Lahore firing and make him leave under the threat of being bhutto-ized. It worked before under Musharaf, there was no reason to think it won't work again. It worked when zardari was president, using the constant threat of reopening the swiss case against him--zardari agreed to neuter himself and the case remains unopened despite zardari no longer having immunity.ramana wrote:I think this is the "The Coup that failed" and will have consequences.
Either PAA will go back to barracks like in FSU or there will be a hanging.
Either way Dimran has shown himself to be a dimwit.