Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 23 Nov 2014 08:47

Vivek K wrote:Can India conduct an independent and sovereign procurement program or the dependence upon former suppliers and the importance of keeping them happy cloud decision making?

The issue seems to be middlemen. IF India can figure out how to get rid of that layer (and not just in defense procurement, the same problem exists in food distribution in India) then there could be a much cheaper and reliable system. Would think that is true anywhere.

VijayN · Post by **VijayN** » 23 Nov 2014 08:47

Why India needs to rethink the Rafale deal

Would this article be any different if India had chosen Eurofighter, SAAB or the the F series?

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/fra ... ime-05991/ - A nice lengthy article for everyone's reading.

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 23 Nov 2014 09:08

SaiK wrote:
It’s a matter of disgrace that we are the biggest importer of arms.” He also said that India’s security is more than tanks and aircraft.
now tell me who said this?

Testing our GK, Saik saar.

On a more serious note, Doval ji, is right. There can be no two opinions about this. Yet in the next coming 10 years can we change this? Our security is situation is the most challenging. Our defence preparedness is lacking, infact we are lagging behind on almost all scheduled weapon systems. Desi equivalents or even lesser systems are taking time in coming to maturity.

If we curb our imports, the gaps will be hard to fill locally. Are we prepared to take this chance? A question only GOI can answer. The NSA is part of the decision making body. Us enthusiasts and arm chair folks are very happy with the present decision making team. We can only hope that their vision is what is right for all of us.

On this Rafale thread, such observations are even more pertinent as this deal will become the single largest import deal ever (AFAIK) and push us more in that direction. Yet, do we have choice? What is the rationale behind an MMRCA? Is the MMRCA a mere whim (thats what I felt watching the StratPost roundtable)?

This deal is so big that if there is even the slightest of doubts on its need lets back out or at least scale down. I know the Rafale will make an impression in deterence, but at what cost?

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 23 Nov 2014 17:49

How much of the total procurement cost is to be invested in India? In terms of percentage? The American experience in this regard is not encouraging so we got to learn from that and start with it ASAP.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 23 Nov 2014 19:09

deejay wrote: On a more serious note, Doval ji, is right. There can be no two opinions about this. Yet in the next coming 10 years can we change this? Our security is situation is the most challenging. Our defence preparedness is lacking, infact we are lagging behind on almost all scheduled weapon systems. Desi equivalents or even lesser systems are taking time in coming to maturity.

If we curb our imports, the gaps will be hard to fill locally. Are we prepared to take this chance? A question only GOI can answer. The NSA is part of the decision making body. Us enthusiasts and arm chair folks are very happy with the present decision making team. We can only hope that their vision is what is right for all of us.

On this Rafale thread, such observations are even more pertinent as this deal will become the single largest import deal ever (AFAIK) and push us more in that direction. Yet, do we have choice? What is the rationale behind an MMRCA? Is the MMRCA a mere whim (thats what I felt watching the StratPost roundtable)?

This deal is so big that if there is even the slightest of doubts on its need lets back out or at least scale down. I know the Rafale will make an impression in deterence, but at what cost?

The question we should be asking is that what is the relationship between deterrence and uber expensive weapon systems like the Rafale. For example which fancy fighters(or other weapons) does a country like the North Korea that it is able to deter deter a much more powerful neighbour and the sole superpower even whilst it blatantly provokes with incidents like torpedoing their ships? I remember back in 2003 the Americans weren't just threatening Iraq for their alleged WMD programme but also North Korea, with Donald Rumsfeld claiming that the US military could simultaneously attack both the countries. Of course they ended up doing little more than twiddling their fingers while NK went on to test Nuclear weapons.
Instead of mindlessly blowing money to buy the bestest of weapons, we should rather be thinking about how we are going to meet our strategic needs. Weapon imports can be drastically, not in 20 years or 10 years, but Today, if only we can start saying no.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 23 Nov 2014 19:52

It's the Q one has been asking for aeons. I came across a fairly recent speech by XI Gins to the Chinese top brass,in which he stressed that nuclear weapons capability was the ultimate weapon of deterrent. No amt. of conventional weaponry can surpass the possession of N-weapons.Nevertheless,delivery systems including airborne that can strike deep,far and stealthily are essential requirements of any would-be N-power including India.The US and Russia still use their venerable B-52s and TU-95/142 Bear bombers testing each others defences.The sad truth is that India does not have any strategic strike capability while the Chinese have hundreds of strat. bombers,aged though they might be but which can reach any part of India esp. from Tibet. IAF Rafales will also face a v. formidable opponent in Chinese SU-35s if the publicised deal with Russia goes through,even though they will not have the complete menu of goodies that Russian versions will possess. The GOI should take a short breather and look at the entire force structure of the IAF holistically before finally sealing the Rafale deal.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 23 Nov 2014 19:54

The amount of aircraft the Chinese are negotiating on the Su-35 is quite indicative of their purpose of entering into such a venture.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 23 Nov 2014 21:20

brar_w wrote:The amount of aircraft the Chinese are negotiating on the Su-35 is quite indicative of their purpose of entering into such a venture.

And also indicative of Russia's purpose in entering into such a venture considering the Chinese purpose, both of which have not changed since the early 1950s. Recall also the legally threatening hue and cry emanating from Russia on India's comparatively miniscule attempt at the same "purpose" with the A7 rifle.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 24 Nov 2014 08:19

Article from last month. Don't recall seeing it posted here before.

________________

French team to visit India to put MMRCA deal on fast track

Huma Siddiqui | New Delhi | Published: Oct 31 2014

SUMMARY
Citing hurdles in final round of negotiations, sources indicate that besides the costs, it is the clause on transfer of technology that is causing more delays

Alarmed that the much-delayed $20-billion deal for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) may be deferred further, a team of senior officers from France's defence ministry and aircraft manufacturer Dassault are to visit India shortly to expedite the procurement process and to ensure that the deal is on track.

Dassault's Rafale fighter was selected to supplement the Indian Air Force's ageing fleet over competition from the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Eurofighter Typhoon, Lockheed Martin F-16 Fighting Falcon, Mikoyan MiG-35 and Saab JAS 39 Gripen..

Sources told FE, 'The negotiations for the MMRCA, which is part of the long-term integrated perspective plan (2012-27) with the French company Dassault, is going on but at a very slow pace as it is complicated process. The French government and the company have expressed concern over the delays. And they are keen that the deal gets finalised at the earliest. However, the whole process will take its own time to be completed.'

Citing some hurdles in the final round of negotiations, sources have indicated that besides the costs, it is the clause on transfer of technology that is causing more delays.

Given that Dassault has no foreign customers for the Rafale and badly needs the export orders, careful negotiation could reduce cost, but so far that does not seem to have happened.

As reported by FE earlier, cost has been an issue since the start besides the company's reluctance to transfer sophisticated technology to India and meet offsets requirements. In the last several months, questions have been raised by Dassault regarding the role of Hindustan Aeronautics in the MMRCA. Moreover, the French company is unwilling to be held liable for the quality, on-time and on-cost delivery of the 108 aircraft to be licence-produced at HAL. However, according to HAL officials, all issues with Dassault have been resolved. As things stand, given Dassault's financial situation the company cannot afford any business risk.

According to official sources, the negotiations have dragged on for so long also due to issues related to MMRCA's 50% offset requirement and transfer of technology. The French, it appears, are unwilling to transfer cutting edge technology such as that of the electronically scanned AESA radar while citing lack of maturity of the Indian defence industry to absorb such critical technologies as an excuse.

There is also a strong lobby of small and medium French enterprises that is against industrial offsets and sees it as a threat to the competitiveness of the French defence industry.

It is the Indian Air Force's threat perception in the face of its depleting squadron strength, down from the sanctioned 44 squadrons to about 34 squadrons at present, that led it to look for new aircraft to replace its ageing combat fleet.

Financial Express

srai · Post by **srai** » 25 Nov 2014 03:50

Viv S wrote:Article from last month. Don't recall seeing it posted here before.

________________

French team to visit India to put MMRCA deal on fast track

...

According to official sources, the negotiations have dragged on for so long also due to issues related to MMRCA's 50% offset requirement and transfer of technology. The French, it appears, are unwilling to transfer cutting edge technology such as that of the electronically scanned AESA radar while citing lack of maturity of the Indian defence industry to absorb such critical technologies as an excuse.

There is also a strong lobby of small and medium French enterprises that is against industrial offsets and sees it as a threat to the competitiveness of the French defence industry.

...

Financial Express

Anyone thinking 100% TOT need to read the bolded part above. Don't be fooled by sleek sales rhetoric.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 25 Nov 2014 04:07

^^^"I know the Rafale will make an impression in deterence"

Sure will. The IN and the IA and The SFC will be deterred (financially) from investing in assets and capability.

The Rafale cost is a wipeout for total capability

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 25 Nov 2014 04:45

for that cost, we can buy capabilities.. we can sling shot from israel help with regards to AESA.. while local LRDE can focus on AlGaN/GaN in plastic pack using surface mount tech. my concern is more of the engine and stealth skin/shape design.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 25 Nov 2014 05:27

SaiK wrote:for that cost, we can buy capabilities.. we can sling shot from israel help with regards to AESA.. while local LRDE can focus on AlGaN/GaN in plastic pack using surface mount tech. my concern is more of the engine and stealth skin/shape design.

Or we can keep Hollande on his scooter and fund the French village lifestyle

http://www.black-city.fr/party/wp-conte ... k-city.jpg

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Nov 2014 10:39

Serious Qs indeed. If the French are unwilling to play ball,then all bets are off.As the above post says,AESA radar tech can be obtained from several sources.Israel,Russia,Sweden.Why,if I'm right,even the Typhoon hasn't got its radar as yet! Any of these nations would be more than willing to supply the same. Unfortunately,HAL hasn't got its act together,even with Mk-1's FOC supposedly delayed yet again. That makes the IAF's state of affairs v. precarious with no indigenous numbers arriving,other than MKIs. Other players will sense opportunities. One wonders what "Santa" Putin will be bringing in his sack this festive season!

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 25 Nov 2014 12:41

Said it since day 1, all this French talk of full tot was complete marketing hogwash. If such tech as AESA is not shared, might as well go for FMS of F-35 with a licence to local assembly, at least we'll be assembling a 5th gen fighter. The prices will be roughly the same.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 25 Nov 2014 14:14

srai wrote: Anyone thinking 100% TOT need to read the bolded part above. Don't be fooled by sleek sales rhetoric.

100 % R&D is not asked for nor possible , You cant really replicate 100 % of Rafale in India coz of time and cost reason.

Eventually the French or any one has to give whats there on the Agreement with due time lines matching TOT ....its a long process would take a decade to get TOT level we asked for.

khan · Post by **khan** » 25 Nov 2014 23:23

This has been said before and it bears repeating. We don't need full blown TOT for any aircraft purchase. In terms of aircraft design (and soon manufacturing), we have reached an inflection point. All the labs need is funds and a reduction in bearucracy so that we can refine and improve homegrown tech. Given enough "support" indigenous tech will become as good or better than any other.

TOT was needed in the 1990's when we didn't have a base level of technology to build on. At this point dedicating resources to study or reverse engineer French tech will only slow down the evolution of home grown tech and will be counterproductive in the long term.

What we really need are production lines for frequently replaced parts so that we can keep imported planes flying through sanctions and prolonged hostilities. Less frequently needed parts can be stockpiled.

This obsession with ToT seems to be a colonial hangover from when India did not have that base level of tech.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 25 Nov 2014 23:54

Septimus P. wrote:Said it since day 1, all this French talk of full tot was complete marketing hogwash. If such tech as AESA is not shared, might as well go for FMS of F-35 with a licence to local assembly, at least we'll be assembling a 5th gen fighter. The prices will be roughly the same.

Prices will be less. See w_brar's links on LM in his posts. And the JSF will do more so fewer planes. No kickbacks, supply chain is like ordering from Amazon.

My guess is that Obama's visit is going to see some major deals signed.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 26 Nov 2014 00:43

The F-35 is totally outside of the MRCA or the IAF at this point. I doubt Lockheed even takes this seriously. Choppers and P-8's and other transport aircraft could be carried forward.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Nov 2014 00:54

The F-35 at its current prices of at least $100m+ a pop isn't going to arrive here,esp. if the FGFA deal is followed through.Putin visits before O'Bomber and having gone some considerable way into the programme,thrashing out issues is far easier than embarking upon another aircraft whose dev. hasn't been completed and where the US and its allies get first pick at the cherry.Moreover,the JSF is single-engine and the IAF is more interested in a twin-engined,twin-seat fighter.

Let's stick to the topic here,the fate of the Rafale. I was looking at the ATAS sonar deal with Germany.After the DRDO failed to deliver,there wasn't even the fig leaf of local production for the first 10 sets all to be built in Germany,with a follow on potential for 20+ more warships,plus 16 shallow water ASW craft.If the French have doubts about HAL's capability to deliver,the IAF should then insist at least upon the first few sqds. built in France/transferred from France in the interim,more OEM built aircraft in the deal before we master building the same at home with TOT whatever.It would probably cost less too.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 26 Nov 2014 00:58

100% ToT may not be possible, but 400% cost reduction must be possible?

let us do this: take 40 rafales as they were saying earlier in complete delivery and some maintenance deal. reduce the cost, since we are not ToTing.. get it all imported. now focus on LCA, MCA/PAKFA/..

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 26 Nov 2014 05:05

brar_w wrote:The F-35 is totally outside of the MRCA or the IAF at this point. I doubt Lockheed even takes this seriously. Choppers and P-8's and other transport aircraft could be carried forward.

The MMRCA is dead. The selection should be based more on strategic interoperability (India/Japan/Oz/US) than on the MMRCA

The original MMRCA contest was posited to exclude the JSF because it was not deliverable within the time frame then specified.

Come 2015, the JSF deliverability and the Rafale's production end coincide. LM had even offered the F-16 as a stopgap/trade-in for the JSF.

Things change. You may recall the original RFP was for a single engined fighter which, under EU/US/Russian/French (M2K production ended) pressure got changed into including twin engined ones

We don't have to buy the JSF but for heaven's sake, don't blow $20bn on an obsolete fighter that will add little to our capability WRT to PRC and that we don't need for the pakis.

BTW, it's not just the IAF's ASQR requirements that have to be taken into account. It is the overall strategic capability of India: dissuasion and deterrence.

member_28722 · Post by **member_28722** » 26 Nov 2014 05:05

Viv S wrote:Please revise your figures. Our contract was for license assembly of 140 aircraft (augmented by a later order of 40 more). Of those almost half (Phase I-III) have been built from SKD and CKD kits. It wasn't until Phase IV that the production was indigenized. Even assuming a more aggressive effort for the Rafale, at least a third of the 108 aircraft we're manufacturing will be kit-built. Tejas Mk2 production will be in full swing well before the Rafale's indigenous production begins.

My apologies .. I confused your initial comment as off the shelf.

The F-22 can do what it can do primarily because its fields a VLO airframe. And while the Chinese will progressively upgrade their J-31s with newer avionics, no amount of French investment in the Rafale will alleviate its lack of low observability.

A progressive upgrade which will take a decade to realize and not 4 years.

How many Rafales are actually in Indian service at the moment? None.

However by the time Rafale deliveries begin, the list of countries operating 5th gen aircraft will include -

1. US
2. UK
3. Norway
4. Netherlands
5. Italy
6. Turkey
7. Israel
8. Japan
9. South Korea
10. Australia.

By the time domestic production of the Rafale begins, those countries will be joined by -

11. Canada
12. Denmark
13. Singapore
14. Russia
15. China

(With 16. Belgium and 17. Finland right behind.)

Since Rafale is not being selected in 2018 and bulk of all airforce will continue to be 4th gen till 2040 (except US), my point stands. Also I expect India to be in 11-15 for 5G also. We will either sort out FGFA problems or go in as JSF partner.

UK/Germany - Eurofighter
US - F-15
US - F-16

The Gripen entered service in 1997 (2002 for the C/D). So the 'within a decade' part doesn't hold water either. Bottom-line the presence or absence of carrier capability is no reflection on the aircraft's performance.

US already had Tomcat and Hornet, PRC doesn't. UK hasn't had a ship capable of operating anything other than Harriers since before Falklands.
US, India, Russia, France have real carrier abilities today and all have either a carrier version of their indigenous aircraft or a seperate indigenous aircraft all together. Even our Navy wants an N-LCA which is more unproven compared to J10. PRC doesn't inspite of supposedly having a 'superior' aviation industry. So J10 is not a 'cornerstone' essentially because the design is not Made in China.

Credit nothing. Nobody who's using an Apple is particularly concerned about value-for-money. No even moderately budget-conscious person anyway. And every Chinese brand mentioned delivers better value per dollar than your Apple. (So do both Indian brands for that matter.)

I will reply when I stop

(You do know that its quite cheap to get an Apple in actual 4G countries)

Don't believe everything you find on google.

This is from the Swiss evaluation of the Gripen E -

Not google ... Janes
http://www.stratpost.com/gripen-operati ... ters-janes
Rafale is $16,500, and lower than Typhoon.

That's absurd. The USD-INR exchange rate has no effect whatsoever on the dollar value of the contract.

I was joking. We have agreed long back that Rafale is a costly deal. There is no need to keep bring up the cost again and again. I am tired of replying to your cost posts.

Reliable source is Jean-Michel Guhl. The PESA's range is about 100km. Same as the MMR's.

This link also says that Rafale is designed to be LO. If you are taking this link as the Amrit/Holy Grail of information on Rafale then it essentially throws your LO J31 > non-LO Rafale out of the window.
w.r.t radar, Rafale's radar meets the requirement and per recent news we will get full source code of the same and are free to do what we want to. Irbis was not in MMRCA competition and we will never get full source code of APGs. Typhoon also did make it to final round and was beaten on cost not quality. If their costs were equal we would have been having this discussion today on Typhoon.

I don't have to assume that the PRC's plans will go like clockwork to know that the J-20 & J-31 are LO designs (even if not VLO like the F-35), they will be cheaper than the Rafale, will be produced at far higher rates and will feature avionics that are constantly upgraded. The J-10 already scores on three out of four aspects and while it may not field an EW suite as sophisticated as the Rafale's, it still delivers far better value for the same budget.
1. They aren't going hold back their strength in a conflict against India. To say nothing of a two front war.
2. The US and allies will collective have more than enough numbers to face off China (it'll be much tougher if the air war takes place over/around the Korean peninsula). Probably not enough for power projection though. Same doesn't apply to the IAF, which will be inducting 4th gen fighters at less than half the pace of their 5th gen fighter induction.
3. 'Substandard' with the F-35 as the benchmark perhaps. The Rafale for all its maturity is still lugs around an airframe very observable to enemy air and ground based radars.
4. The PAK FA hasn't flown that many more sorties. It goes into production in 2016.
5. Ten years ago, the very idea of a Chinese stealth fighter was met with derision on this forum viz. 'won't happen'. And the problem with operating in Tibet is air density, which can be overcome with greater excess thrust. Infrastructure is arguably better than in the Indian NE. And for all the talk of it being a third pole, fact is temperatures in Tibet aren't quite that low (north of the Himalayan ranges). Its colder in Chicago today, than it is in Lhasa.

Of course you are assuming that. Its the cornerstone of all your J31 vs Rafale points. Even though J20 is still prototype and J31 had problems flying without weapon at Zuhai, yet PRC aviation industry will overcome all problems to have them ready for mass production in 4 years. That's what your posts are saying.
With regards to your remaining points
1. So what we need 2000 fighters now?
2. You think they can iron out all their problems and produce 60 5th gen fighters a year from 2018/19 onwards? Operational costs of 5G are nearly double/triple compared to 4G for a well developed aviation industry like US.
3. If J31 5th gen, then yes F35 should be a benchmark. If no, then J31 is not 5th gen.
4. PAKFA sorties were at 450 in 2013, they should easily get to 1000 by 2016. PAKFA also had achieved 40 min flight in 2011. Still its taking 6 years, and you expect PRC to do that faster considering where they are now?
5. The only way they are going to go from Zuhai airshow level to Tibet operational in 4 years is if they find Alladin's genie.

Fine we'll stick to aerial radars. The KJ-200 and KJ-2000 are both AESAs and have been in service for about a decade. The first DRDO AEW&C will be delivered next year. The first fighter AESA was delivered with the J-16 last year IIRC, while the J-10B/C will receive it in 2015-16. The Uttam AESA will be delivered with the Mk2 post-2020. Like it or not, fact is they have a lead in it.

KJ2000 was Mainstay (possibly even TSP style painting). Its either that or accepting that PRC developed an AESA AWACS in 3 years. Balance of probability says former.
KJ3000 was their first actual indigenous AESA radar and we had DRDO AEWC ready a cpl of years later, which is not bad if you look at the budgets. Yes, realistically, as a whole, their aviation industry is ahead of ours, but not in all subsets, which is good to know

'Good learning experience' has been thrown around since the first MiG-21 went into production in 1966. The FGFA will employ the same airframe, same avionics and same propulsion as the PAK FA. Our 'design inputs' will consist of integrating a non-Russian HMDS, LDP, MFD, refueling pod and Indian datalink & IFF.

How many Migs were actually 'Made in India'. Compare this with Sukhoi and yes, it's because of these experiences we have made LCA.

The delays and developments in the deal are owed less to political interference and more to IAF overreach and bureaucratic apathy in the MoD. Neither of which have changed with the swearing of the new govt. All the same, lets see.

How was RFP expansion/modification allowed to include Rafale and Eurofighter? This is the single biggest reason for the delay. MoD, far more than IAF is responsible for current state of affairs of MMRCA.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 26 Nov 2014 06:28

Gais..? Gais.. there ij already a dhaga on eph-panties (that ij hindi phor 35, naat to be conphused with something wimmenj and some men wear). Plij staap messing this dhaga with eph-panties rona dhona, like ebhery other dhaga on PRF. Iph PRF had a dhaga on childrens cartoon, that would aalso be overrun by beoblez advocationg the eph-panties.

kmc_chacko · Post by **kmc_chacko** » 26 Nov 2014 08:17

Since every one in NATO & USA friends except France are going for JSF or 5th Gen fighters. What will be the future of Rafael ? will there be a 5th Gen or it will be last French fighter as 5th Gen fighter need a huge investment and Rafael is not brought by any other nations and French finding it difficult to even R&D on Rafael (there might be some thing going on but it is too slow. considering other nations R&D)

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 26 Nov 2014 08:26

5th gen won't come form France. Neither European nation is going in for it. They are currently working to formulate a basic requirement for a next generation stealthy UCAV with the British. That is just in the discussion phase with both parties no doubt negotiating based on their position through the Taranis and Neuron. Its too early in the day to tell where that effort leads, and whether Europe will do one, two or three different program. The time for 5th generation western fighters has come and gone. The F-35 has cornered the traditional western market with the exception of the Middle East and it is widely believed that LMA would be permitted to market the fighter there once the IDF inducts the fighter into its fleet.

kit · Post by **kit** » 26 Nov 2014 10:15

This could be OT but gives an indication as to whether Rafale will be supported throughout its cycle..Reports say that the french are directly going in for development of a 6th generation fighter skipping the 5th generation ..no not the Neuron ..its only an intermediate..the 6th generation details are fairly sketchy at the moment but it could be a manned fighter

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 26 Nov 2014 10:24

What the details are claiming is that they could build upon a manned version of the future aircraft they are studying at the moment. That is pretty much all that is being said. Regarding skipping 5th generation, they did that already when they chose to develop the rafale and stick with it. The F-22 was the first 5th generation and essentially the market maker and it IOC'd nearly a decade ago. They cannot work on a 5th gen now and field it in time for it to be still relevant.

Ultimately the problem comes down to money. What do they need to invest in and for what mission? They primarily need to support NATO and as such they have the F-22's, F-35's, and the existing fleet. On the other side you are getting the Latest flankers and the PAKFA's with uncertainty as to what number would exist say in 2025 or 2030. Now we also do not know what the rate of modernization will be for things like Active BVR weapons (remember russia never really bulked up on R-77's as per most accounts) etc. Also, what sort of impact would financing UCAV's would have on European defense expenditures. Beyond supporting NATO (and being subsidized by the US DOD budget) they have no real need to go all out and take a lead on 6th generation fighters. 6th generation is likely to be even more expensive than 5th generation (As history has shown - each generation costs more than the previous one) and as such what sort of market do the french have? or can expect to have. All these factors would ultimately determine what qualities and technologies a future project has. Remember it was essentially these things that led all the major players in europe to abandon the idea of a dedicated 5th generation aircraft. Even the USAF would have abandoned the F-22 or not conceived it the way they did had they known that the cold war would end and the eventual fleet would be shrunk to below 200. They would have most likely developed an advanced version of the F-15 (much like the flanker, and super flanker) and concentrated on the F-35. For the sort of capabilities one is hearing for 6th generation, think around 30-40 Billion in development costs alone for a western project. Thats 150-200 million dollars of R&D cost alone for a fleet size of 200 without building the aircrafts ..

kit · Post by **kit** » 26 Nov 2014 13:19

thank you..that was a good explanation !

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 26 Nov 2014 13:29

saurabh.mhapsekar wrote:A progressive upgrade which will take a decade to realize and not 4 years.

1. The F-22's upgrades have been long delayed. That hasn't made it any less of a 5th gen aircraft, because it has remained a VLO design from Day 1.
2. The Rafale will still be in service after a decade. How do you propose retrofit VLO capability to it?

Since Rafale is not being selected in 2018 and bulk of all airforce will continue to be 4th gen till 2040 (except US), my point stands. Also I expect India to be in 11-15 for 5G also. We will either sort out FGFA problems or go in as JSF partner.

The Rafale deliveries will start no earlier than 2018, when every other country on that list will be inducting (not selecting) 5th gen aircraft.

In 2026, we'll have the only major air force in the world still inducting brand new 4.5 gen aircraft [along with Brazil and Pakistan (and possibly Iran)]. Most air forces will phase out their 4th gen fleets by 2040. We'll be operating ours as late as 2065, so your point doesn't stand.

US already had Tomcat and Hornet, PRC doesn't. UK hasn't had a ship capable of operating anything other than Harriers since before Falklands.
US, India, Russia, France have real carrier abilities today and all have either a carrier version of their indigenous aircraft or a seperate indigenous aircraft all together. Even our Navy wants an N-LCA which is more unproven compared to J10. PRC doesn't inspite of supposedly having a 'superior' aviation industry. So J10 is not a 'cornerstone' essentially because the design is not Made in China.

There are two independent issues that you're conflating here - the J-10's design and the overall Chinese aviation industry. The absence of a carrier variant for the J-10 has absolutely zero bearing on its capability as a fighter aircraft. And while SAC did manage to get access to a Su-33 prototype, the actual (and very rigorous) process of navalising the Su-27 platform was carried out by them in-house.

I will reply when I stop (You do know that its quite cheap to get an Apple in actual 4G countries)

And when you have finished '

' you may realise that 4G networks have nothing to do with the cost of the handset and if the companies in question were to start bundling Chinese units they'd easily beat the costs quoted by Apple.

This is from the Swiss evaluation of the Gripen E -
Not google ... Janes

Rafale is $16,500, and lower than Typhoon.

Everyone on BRF has seen those Jane's figures (variable CPFH in USAF terminology) and nobody thinks that's the grand total of the operating costs involved. The actual budget documents from the USAF & USN vis a vis the F-16 and SH, show figures that are considerably larger than the ones quoted by Jane's. Same applies to the estimates from the Swiss evaluation.

I was joking. We have agreed long back that Rafale is a costly deal. There is no need to keep bring up the cost again and again. I am tired of replying to your cost posts.

I've heard that exchange rate argument made several times here before (though never as a 'joke'), but if you say you were joking.. alright.

This link also says that Rafale is designed to be LO. If you are taking this link as the Amrit/Holy Grail of information on Rafale then it essentially throws your LO J31 > non-LO Rafale out of the window.

This is just base semantics. It could simply be matter of interpretation. How do you know he wasn't referring to the Emcon concept? The range figures vis a vis the RBE-2 on the other hand are very specific, spells out the relevant target RCS, and leave no room for ambiguity whatsoever.

w.r.t radar, Rafale's radar meets the requirement and per recent news we will get full source code of the same and are free to do what we want to. Irbis was not in MMRCA competition and we will never get full source code of APGs. Typhoon also did make it to final round and was beaten on cost not quality. If their costs were equal we would have been having this discussion today on Typhoon.

Getting the source code of the radar (assuming we do get it) still won't change is mediocre power output. While the J-20's radar might not have the SAR resolution or the dexterity of the RBE-2AA, in terms of range it'll beat the Rafale, as will the J-31.

Of course you are assuming that. Its the cornerstone of all your J31 vs Rafale points. Even though J20 is still prototype and J31 had problems flying without weapon at Zuhai, yet PRC aviation industry will overcome all problems to have them ready for mass production in 4 years. That's what your posts are saying.
With regards to your remaining points
1. So what we need 2000 fighters now?
2. You think they can iron out all their problems and produce 60 5th gen fighters a year from 2018/19 onwards? Operational costs of 5G are nearly double/triple compared to 4G for a well developed aviation industry like US.
3. If J31 5th gen, then yes F35 should be a benchmark. If no, then J31 is not 5th gen.
4. PAKFA sorties were at 450 in 2013, they should easily get to 1000 by 2016. PAKFA also had achieved 40 min flight in 2011. Still its taking 6 years, and you expect PRC to do that faster considering where they are now?
5. The only way they are going to go from Zuhai airshow level to Tibet operational in 4 years is if they find Alladin's genie.

The PAK FA is a still a prototype and they still putting it into production in 2016. Its definitive variant might only come only in 2023 but the interim one is more than a match for the Rafale are air combat.

1. The IAF will face lopsided odds against it and the Rafale doesn't change that equation.
2. You're wrong about the operational costs. 'Double/triple' is complete guesswork on your part.
3. The J-20 and J-31 are both VLO designs whether you like it or not. And they'll both be inducted in far greater numbers than the Rafale.
4. The PRC is behind the RF only in terms of propulsion. It most other respects its caught up with the Russians, and in several respects outpaced them.

_________________________________

Not surprisingly, this year’s CIDEX show saw groups of Russian specialists going through the halls and looking for components that they could source out of China to be utilised in Russian-designed weapon systems. Russian specialists will point out that they are now at a huge disadvantage to the Chinese in two very significant respects.

One is that the commitment by the central government in resources to the defence electronics sector is both sustained and serious. “They can take a field where there is nothing but flat land and wild grass,” said one Russian company representative, “and the next thing you know there is a full-blown factory or design centre there turning out a world-class product.”

The other advantage to China is the unfortunate reality of actuarial tables. Younger scientists and engineers who are needed in Russia to form the next-generation of weapons designers are leaving the nation in droves. A few years ago the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) estimated that 70,000 scientists and specialists from Russian defence institutes and military-industrial complex enterprises had left the country.
_________________________________

5. The number of Rafales delivered to India, four years hence will firmly be in the low single digits.

KJ2000 was Mainstay (possibly even TSP style painting). Its either that or accepting that PRC developed an AESA AWACS in 3 years. Balance of probability says former.
KJ3000 was their first actual indigenous AESA radar and we had DRDO AEWC ready a cpl of years later, which is not bad if you look at the budgets. Yes, realistically, as a whole, their aviation industry is ahead of ours, but not in all subsets, which is good to know

You're assuming without evidence or basis that the Chinese started AESA development only after the Phalcon sale was blocked by the US. Its widely reported and accepted (incl. by IHS Jane's) that the KJ-200 and KJ-2000 both employ AESAs.

'Good learning experience' has been thrown around since the first MiG-21 went into production in 1966. The FGFA will employ the same airframe, same avionics and same propulsion as the PAK FA. Our 'design inputs' will consist of integrating a non-Russian HMDS, LDP, MFD, refueling pod and Indian datalink & IFF.
How many Migs were actually 'Made in India'. Compare this with Sukhoi and yes, it's because of these experiences we have made LCA.

How many MiGs? Hundreds. And there was no hand-holding by HAL for the ADA during the LCA program . The Tejas is a product of sweat and perseverance and not in the least of ToT purchases.

Nikhil T · Post by **Nikhil T** » 26 Nov 2014 23:26

French Defence Minister to visit India amid deadlock over Rafale project

NEW DELHI: With the almost $20 billion MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project for 126 Rafale fighters stuck in the final stages, French defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will be holding talks with his Indian counterpart Manohar Parrikar next week in a bid to resolve the imbroglio.

As was first reported by TOI, 90% of the draft contract for the complex MMRCA project has been finalized, under which the first 18 jets are to be delivered to IAF within 36-48 months of the deal being inked. The rest 108, in turn, will be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) with transfer of technology over the next seven years thereafter.

But the major bone of contention is French aviation major Dassault's continuing reluctance to accept responsibility for the 108 fighters to be built by HAL as far as liquidity damages and timelines for production are concerned.

This has stalled the finalization of the project for several months now. Drian, on his part, is slated to hold delegation-level talks with Parrikar on December 1 during his two-day visit to India. "The MMRCA will obviously figure in the talks," said an official.

It was in January 2012 that India had selected Dassault's Rafale fighter over its five other rivals for the MMRCA project after an extensive technical and commercial evaluation. But the final negotiations have proceeded at a glacial pace since then, rekindling the hope of Eurofighter Typhoon, which is backed by the UK, Germany, Spain and Italy.

British defence secretary Michael Fallon, in fact, recently told TOI that the Eurofighter was fully ready to step in to fulfil India's requirements if negotiations for the Rafale failed.

But, as reported earlier, there can be "no comebacks" in the ongoing MMRCA project as per the Indian defence procurement policy and CVC guidelines. India can either ink the deal for the Rafales or scrap the entire MMRCA selection process undertaken since August 2007.

With IAF down to 34 fighter squadrons, when at least 44 are required, IAF has identified the MMRCA project as its "topmost priority" for the Modi government. The indigenous Tejas light combat aircraft, which is yet to receive its final operational clearance despite being in the making for 30 years, simply cannot fulfill the MMRCA's role.

A MMRCA, for instance, will have three times the range and weapon-load carrying capacity as compared to the Tejas, which will be critical to take on China if required. India is also pushing Russia, ahead of President Vladimir Putin's visit here early next month, to come back with a plan to substantially reduce the delivery timeframe for the stealth fifth-generation fighter aircraft (FGFA) if it wants to stitch-up the futuristic project by next year.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 27 Nov 2014 00:35

Looks like Dassault doesn't want to guarantee HAL built Rafales despite getting paid for transfer of technology. They might have misgivings about HAL made aircraft.
However India needs the Dassault guarantee as HAL is not the design cognizant party.
If France wants the deal as its of national importance, then they might have to give sovereign guarantee to India that there will no design lapses in the Rafale built by HAL to Dassault designs.

member_24684 · Post by **member_24684** » 27 Nov 2014 05:51

meh another soon

French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian will arrive in India on a three-day visit later this month to hold talks with his counterpart Manohar Parrikar during which the issue of the multi-billion dollar deal for Rafale combat aircraft is likely to come up. He will arrive in India on November 30 and hold a series of meetings with top defence and government officials the next day

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 897_1.html

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 27 Nov 2014 06:15

do we now at least know what ToT aspects are we seeking? what are the design changes expected? etc? if we don't know that, we will be heckled by media, french-men and babooze!

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 27 Nov 2014 06:56

Nov 26, 2014 :: India will dump MMRCA Deal with France - Russian Media

idrw wrote: Russian news and analysis website Pravda.Ru today has made a strange claim in its report that Indian authorities may cancel the contract that was signed with France in early September for the delivery of 126 Rafale fighters, should France refuse to supply Mistral vessels to Russia. The contract with India is evaluated from $20 to $22 billion.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 27 Nov 2014 07:10

NRao wrote:[...
Russian news and analysis website Pravda.Ru today has made a strange claim in its report that Indian authorities may cancel the contract that was signed with France in early September for the delivery of 126 Rafale fighters, should France refuse to supply Mistral vessels to Russia. The contract with India is evaluated from $20 to $22 billion.

Rectified spirits at work. The Russian alternative to branded Vodka.

If India dumps the the Rafale, it won't be because of the Mistrale (??). Strange that the Russians are using us a lever to club the French. They need us? they are so weak?

They are right in one respect: there will be no Rafale. Too expensive and too obsolete. What they don't say is that the same will apply to PAK/FA whatever and certainly not the fabled unicorn known as the MiG 35.

The Russians still think they own us.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 27 Nov 2014 07:20

ramana wrote:Looks like Dassault doesn't want to guarantee HAL built Rafales despite getting paid for transfer of technology. They might have misgivings about HAL made aircraft.
However India needs the Dassault guarantee as HAL is not the design cognizant party.
If France wants the deal as its of national importance, then they might have to give sovereign guarantee to India that there will no design lapses in the Rafale built by HAL to Dassault designs.

nobody will guarantee the product quality made by others.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 27 Nov 2014 07:46

ramana wrote:Looks like Dassault doesn't want to guarantee HAL built Rafales despite getting paid for transfer of technology. They might have misgivings about HAL made aircraft.

They do indeed as is evidenced by their willingness to take full responsibility for Reliance made aircraft. It is not the transfer of technology that bothers them but the potential unlimited liability.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 27 Nov 2014 09:24

Dassault quiet on reports of "imminent" sale of Rafale to Qatar

France's Dassault Aviation declined comment on Monday on a media report that said France could soon sell at least two dozen Rafale combat jets to Qatar.

Europe 1 radio reported France was in "very advanced negotiations" to sell a tranche of at least 24 of the Dassault-built fighters to the Gulf state, which has been seeking a total of 72 warplanes to renew and expand its fleet of French Mirage 2000 jets.

"We never comment on export prospects," a spokesman for Dassault Aviation said.

Europe 1 radio said such a deal would be worth 2.5 billion euros and could help unblock other negotiations as France seeks a first export customer for its premier military product.

France has been in exclusive negotiations with India for 126 Rafale planes for about two years.

Defence sources say France and Qatar have held intense negotiations in recent months over fighters and other arms.

Dassault is seen as one of three contenders for fighter business in the Gulf state alongside Boeing's F-15 and the four-nation Eurofighter Typhoon, which last week became the latest combat jet to include plans for an advanced radar.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 27 Nov 2014 14:27

If Rafale deal isn't good enough then why won't let it sell to the Chinese. The deal that Russians are offering to the Chinese, radars et al, is probably the best for money. But this is all about money at this point isn't it, which is why dissing PAK-FA along with to muddle it even more.