Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 23 Dec 2014 16:09

F-35 for MMRCA competition

- meaning that before another options for MMRCA emerges and establishes itself? Better to purchase Su-30 MKI and continue with our own industrial ways.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 23 Dec 2014 16:11

I am surprised that French has not calibarated their approch suitable to the present dispensation in India and offered some goodies etc which make their chances of sucess more. No wonder UAE ditched them. I do not see F-35 coming in as T-50 version and AMCA are all are there already under considaration etc with us.I agree with may be SU30 Mki may be a way to go. May be Super or some other updated version with all bells etc.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 23 Dec 2014 22:38

vishvak wrote:F-35 for MMRCA competition - meaning that before another options for MMRCA emerges and establishes itself? Better to purchase Su-30 MKI and continue with our own industrial ways.

Even better if we put LCA Mk2 on 'war footing'

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 24 Dec 2014 18:41

It's not HAL who can lobby for an alternative.The IAF will have to make the call if the GOI says that the Raffy deal is impossible to conclude. But the writing is on the wall if the French do not come down from their high horse. The IAF had better get its alternatives,plan B,C,D,whatever ready.The DM should also ask it to do so asap so that no time is lost if the deal crashlands.

Will · Post by **Will** » 24 Dec 2014 21:11

The LCA Mk1 hasn't even attained FOC. Depending on the Mk2 to fill in the MMRCA gap is a big no. If this keeps up the IAF will have even less sqns then the PAF.

member_28730 · Post by **member_28730** » 25 Dec 2014 00:56

If the Rafale deal is indeed cancelled by the govt. I feel a direct purchase of 3-4 sqns of Mig 29 in its latest avatar would be a relatively quick and economical stop gap solution to bring in the numbers. If one lot of used M2K ideally 40 (seems a pipe dream now) could be purchased from France and/or Qatar will further strengthen the sqns. Having done this some of the money saved could be invested in speeding up LCA2 development and production. Our requirement for a 4.5/5th gen aircraft will only be met by the FGFA though.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 25 Dec 2014 03:44

Cosmo_R wrote: Even better if we put LCA Mk2 on 'war footing'

Well Saar, iirc they have been on so called war footing for.past few years. Makes no difference to the pace... Chalta hai continues wrt timelines

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Dec 2014 13:21

The LCA is in serious doubt no whether it will replace even the MIG-21s! The MIGs are now being nursed ever so carefully to serve until 2025.The Dear Lord forbid if we enter into a conflict before then.Both numbers and quality do matter-equally.One super-capable aircraft cannot be in tow places at the same time,on both the western and eastern fronts. China has capable aircraft in their thousands,including strat. bombers and a large inventory of tactical and strat missiles in Tibet,. The IAF have to see the light of day ,remove its blinkers ("only Rafale",ad nauseum) and learn to cut its uniform according to its cloth. Acquiring 4-6 sqds. of upgraded std. new MIG-29s/ 35s is the most cost effective manner in which we can stem the rot. This will allow us to retain our current sqd. strength at low cost,also allowing us to acquire dedicated bombers like the SU-34 to add to the 270+ MKIs already in the pipeline.

member_28476 · Post by **member_28476** » 27 Dec 2014 22:45

Recently talked with top ranked industrial involved in MMRCA.
He disclaims that OEM partner 100% liability was in original RFP.
Things are going pretty well between IAF, HAL and Dasssault. Of course there were hurdles...
It is CNC that want Dassault to be liable for deliveries and quality. Last hurdle. I let you expect why.
Contract (15k pages long) otherwise more or less wrapped.

Kersi D · Post by **Kersi D** » 28 Dec 2014 00:04

Pagot wrote:Recently talked with top ranked industrial involved in MMRCA.
He disclaims that OEM partner 100% liability was in original RFP.
Things are going pretty well between IAF, HAL and Dasssault. Of course there were hurdles...
It is CNC that want Dassault to be liable for deliveries and quality. Last hurdle. I let you expect why.
Contract (15k pages long) otherwise more or less wrapped.

CNC ???

krishnan · Post by **krishnan** » 28 Dec 2014 00:46

Contract Negotiation Committee (CNC)

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 28 Dec 2014 06:00

Cain Marko wrote:
Cosmo_R wrote: Even better if we put LCA Mk2 on 'war footing'
Well Saar, iirc they have been on so called war footing for.past few years. Makes no difference to the pace... Chalta hai continues wrt timelines

Alright surrender footing

Malayappan · Post by **Malayappan** » 28 Dec 2014 09:30

Rafale deal deadlock

Interesting Author name!

He has had to add a 'Rao' to stay different!

From that article

If India forgets about technology transfer for now, allows complete manufacture in France and in return insists on an accelerated delivery schedule of all 126 aircraft, and a significantly lower price point of no more than 100 million USD per aircraft including spares and maintenance and payment after delivery, perhaps even loaner aircraft in the interim, then that might be a way out of the deadlock.

uddu · Post by **uddu** » 28 Dec 2014 10:35

Will there be Indianization of the Rafale? a la MKI as in Sukhoi-30 deal?
Later we must be in a position to fit..Uttam AESA Mark-II (commonality with LCA, AMCA), Astra missile, glide bombs or any weapon system that go into LCA and AMCA. Also in the long run even Kaveri engine.
We do read that Mirage-2000 upgrades are hit because of spare parts
http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... groundings

Hope similar issues dont arise in the long run..Proper planning with indigenous spares are a need for this deal...else it's not worth if we end up with Rafale on the ground while the AMCA is flying high. The money invested will be wasted.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 28 Dec 2014 13:24

Pagot wrote:Recently talked with top ranked industrial involved in MMRCA.
He disclaims that OEM partner 100% liability was in original RFP.
Things are going pretty well between IAF, HAL and Dasssault. Of course there were hurdles...
It is CNC that want Dassault to be liable for deliveries and quality. Last hurdle. I let you expect why.
Contract (15k pages long) otherwise more or less wrapped.

100% liability will require 100% control? The production line will be fully under Dassault control?

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 28 Dec 2014 15:59

uddu wrote:Will there be Indianization of the Rafale? a la MKI as in Sukhoi-30 deal?

Indian IFDL, IFF module and possibly some weaponry (over the long run). Aside from that, nothing. The Su-30MKI's modifications were a result of deficiencies in the base design, and all of the changes added genuine value to the aircraft.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Dec 2014 02:21

Malayappan wrote:Rafale deal deadlock

Interesting Author name! He has had to add a 'Rao' to stay different!

^^^"The answer to both is that India is not allowed to buy the F-35. The Russian PAK-FA far off in the future is the only way India will get stealth aircraft, so for now it has to settle for improving the BVR capability, so it needs the Rafale because the Rafale has a good radar and weaponry to match. "

Obama and Ash Carter would like nothing better than to make a quick sale of 60 F-35s. LM will rush to build a second line in India if given half a chance. There's a lot of fear that UK, Italy, Spain and others will not be able to exercise full options. Japan, Singapore, SOKO and Oz all will 'hope' for interoperability and for economies of scale.

And of course, our friends the Israelis can sense the potential for their 'upgrades'.

I don't know where that article in NITI is headed. All directions apparently.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 29 Dec 2014 02:50

Cosmo_R wrote:
Malayappan wrote:Rafale deal deadlock

Interesting Author name! He has had to add a 'Rao' to stay different!

^^^"The answer to both is that India is not allowed to buy the F-35. The Russian PAK-FA far off in the future is the only way India will get stealth aircraft, so for now it has to settle for improving the BVR capability, so it needs the Rafale because the Rafale has a good radar and weaponry to match. "

Obama and Ash Carter would like nothing better than to make a quick sale of 60 F-35s. LM will rush to build a second line in India if given half a chance. There's a lot of fear that UK, Italy, Spain and others will not be able to exercise full options. Japan, Singapore, SOKO and Oz all will 'hope' for interoperability and for economies of scale.

And of course, our friends the Israelis can sense the potential for their 'upgrades'.

I don't know where that article in NITI is headed. All directions apparently.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=6203&p=1771686#p1771686

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 29 Dec 2014 04:09

@brar_w ^^^ thanks for the link. Too much for my old mind to grasp. I will note that early adopters combined with the politics of trying to kill 5G capability elsewhere means India can play outsize role in the process. If India selects the Rafale it means the French industry lives to fight another day along the lines of Sweden and Gripen. If India goes with F-35, it kills PAK/FA, Rafale and all other contenders.

The GOTUS is very much hung up on reciprocity for the nuke deal. The P8s and C-130s have gone some length but they want more: the MQ4, the Sikorskys and above all, the F-35s.

One ring to find them and bind them.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 29 Dec 2014 04:18

I do not look at it this way. The Rafale is an extremely important program for the French. A strategic asset. Something like a mix of the F-16 and B-2 to the US. Remember, India is only buying a small amount of the birds from the french lines, so it is a virtual given that if this deal is delayed the french would end up footing the bill and taking over the production that they had earlier allowed for export.

As far as the purchases being something only to satisfy some expectation from the Nuclear deal and nothing to do with competent hardware for a purpose -is a matter of individual opinion. The triton is an extremely cost-effective and capable maritime platform and the Block 40 is also very capable at what it does. The capability and the virtual monopoly in that market segment basically sells the thing itself. Japan, Australia would be procuring this and the US is already invested in the platform in the long run. These lines are sold solid and the non-permissive environment alternative is apparently already in LRIP (RQ180).

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Dec 2014 13:38

It is unlikely that the JSF will be viewed as a Rafale alternative.it was never in the list and if the Raffy is to be dumped,then the other aircraft will be re-examined from various angles.One glaring deficiency in the entire MMRCA requirement has been the cost factor. $10B was acceptable 4-5 years ago,but $20B-30B? Unacceptable. The best chance for the JSF in the F-35B avatar is for use aboard outr future larger carriers.The RN's QE-2 design which was based upon the Falklands experience,eventually plumped for the SATOVL version as in the F-War,it was found that Sea Harriers could conduct 4 Harrier launches in the time it took to launch just one F-14 from US carriers.However,STOVL comes with some drawbacks as opposed to conventional cat-launched aircraft,but is huge in advantages such as a simple vertical landing/recovery,no costly cats/EMALS launch systems,arrestor wires,etc.,costing a billion+ at least .STOBAR is perhaps the best compromise,as the limitations of STOVL aircraft is offset by using conventional carrier aircraft ,but with some limitations reg. payload,etc.

The latest recommendation by the parliamentary committee on defence ,that the IAF should immediately beef up sqd. strength ahile allocating more funds for the IN,must be taken seriously by the Def. Min. Therefore,cost-effective multi-role strike aircraft must be acquired asap to prevent the sqd. strength from plummeting to disastrous depths.Pak is rapidly increasing its numbers by local manufacture of JF-17s,modest but effective aircraft.The IAF is losing its numerical superiority by the day with no solution in sight.An acquisition of around 120 aircraft costing $40-50m is the need of the hour,plus a huge effort in ramping up LCA production which is just 8/yr.

member_28476 · Post by **member_28476** » 29 Dec 2014 14:45

Indian IFDL, IFF module and possibly some weaponry (over the long run). Aside from that, nothing. The Su-30MKI's modifications were a result of deficiencies in the base design, and all of the changes added genuine value to the aircraft.

The only public things about indianization are : HMS, opening of two harpoints and SATCOM. There were claims from russians about KH31 and claims from israeli about "integrating stuff". I would like to know as much as you do, but DA politics are to let client speak for themselves.

100% liability will require 100% control? The production line will be fully under Dassault control?

I think you are at the core of the last hurdle sir. If CNC wants 100% liability from Dassault, let me know how you would react if you were FROM Dassault?

member_20317 · Post by **member_20317** » 29 Dec 2014 17:08

From the negotiations POV on the matter of "100% liability will require 100% control":

Any govt. of the day would commit a political hara kiri if they even appear to have dumped Rafale for JSF. Some quarters would be waiting for just this sort of thing. GoI can actually dump it but cannot appear to have dumped it. That is the only difficult spot that would need to be covered and the current team came in basis their capacity for communication. JSF was available to India just as much as it is available to everybody else. Hell the Chinese 'stole' it - what more can you ask for. This write up by Sitaramrao Yechuri is just to show how the govt of the day thinks. Right now only the political hacks (karyakartas) and known hawks are saying that Rafale is too expensive. Primarily because there is little political capital lost if the final decision goes against these hacks and hawks. But within the system there is easy availability of a lot of real cool players (real experts) who have not even weighed in on the debate around costs-capabilities-comparisons. Probably because they want to give full measure of freedom to the Indian establishment to negotiate the thing through. The real informal benchmark for an impending failure of talks would be, if these people are brought into the play. Then you can be sure that the GoI has said 'no' the way it usually says it - with smiles and informally, allowing the death by old age. But then again, there are a lot of other things that can happen too.

Dassault would be very wrong if they think that merely because we are too far into the negotiations hence Rafale cannot be abandoned. Actually nobody would ever be able to allege 'collections' by this regimen hence purely from political PoV, they would be least bothered if Rafale falls through. And dumping what appears to be wrong without exerting to set things right, is considered quite Gandhian in India.

Moreover, several Indian governments have inventoried IAF with politically inspired weapons and they are quite capable of doing that again. Ombaba is coming and the hacks are already saying that JSF can be had for the price of Rafale - but is not allowed for Indians. Imagine Ombaba being gracious and 'allowing' JSF for Short Dark Rice Eaters. SDREs happy, TFTA happy, General Aladeen happy only Dassault remains unhappy!

As the Rafale gets delayed its rationale keeps going down. The allocations for capital exp. suggest that Rafale is not happening this Financial Year in line with the negotiators claim that we are in no hurry. If this suspicion is right and if Dassault tries to acts smart by delaying for one more year then really who would be excited about supporting Rafale in FY16-17 for a 4 year planned raising of first few squads. Just when the LCAs begin to come in and LCA Mk-2 PVs begin to make their presence felt.

This govt knows that the low lying fruits on the 'Make in India' tree are the MIC businesses. This is Saffron inspired pump priming. And LCAs make for much much better 'Make in India' initiatives. The only real difficulties are the tentativeness of the India private sector but they can be brought around by just a few extra dollars and a display of personal interest from PMO.

Come to think of it the responsibility clause is not unjustified in any manner. I am rather proud that they are asking for it. Just consider what happens if something unforeseen happens. Like the damned auto-ejections in MKIs. With Rafale being as expensive as it is, 2/3 unforeseen events and 2 hajar keyrore go down the WC. That will become instant ticket to hell for the Indian partner (HAL/Reliance/WT_).

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 29 Dec 2014 18:34

Pagot wrote:
100% liability will require 100% control? The production line will be fully under Dassault control?
I think you are at the core of the last hurdle sir. If CNC wants 100% liability from Dassault, let me know how you would react if you were FROM Dassault?

Pagot,

Now there are two stories:

One story is from Dassault through you - that the RFP does not assign such a responsibility to the vendor, and the second:

But, if you visit Rafale Deal Nosedives in Negotiation Combat, dated Dec 21, 2014, which says:

After cost escalation, the French major Dassault Aviation, which manufactures Rafale fighter jets, has refused to take “full responsibility” for the 108 fighters to be manufactured in India by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) as per the original tender. Eighteen of the 126 planes will be purchased directly from Dassault, while Hindustan Aeronautics Limited will manufacture the other 108 under a licence, at an upcoming facility in Bangalore. “The ministry is in no hurry to conclude the negotiations despite what people may say. Dassault has to accept commitment mentioned in the RFP (Request for proposal),” a key defence ministry official said on the condition of anonymity.

So, the question is which is true?

I am inclined to believe that the RFP was poorly written and this issue has been left open to interpretation. So, until I see the contents of the RFP, both sides are right. Shylock lives!!

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 29 Dec 2014 23:40

Pagot wrote:
Indian IFDL, IFF module and possibly some weaponry (over the long run). Aside from that, nothing. The Su-30MKI's modifications were a result of deficiencies in the base design, and all of the changes added genuine value to the aircraft.
The only public things about indianization are : HMS, opening of two harpoints and SATCOM. There were claims from russians about KH31 and claims from israeli about "integrating stuff". I would like to know as much as you do, but DA politics are to let client speak for themselves.

100% liability will require 100% control? The production line will be fully under Dassault control?
I think you are at the core of the last hurdle sir. If CNC wants 100% liability from Dassault, let me know how you would react if you were FROM Dassault?

Power without responsibility is the privilege of the HArLot

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 31 Dec 2014 16:48

"India could consider buying more Sukhoi-30 fighters if the $25 billion proposed deal to buy 126 Rafale jets from France collapsed, a top government official said."

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 01998.aspx

The key line is : "The top government official also made it clear that under existing rules, there was no scope for the Eurofighter consortium, backed by four European countries, to re-enter the race to sell its Typhoon fighters to India. The Germany-led consortium had come up with a revised proposal -- sweetened with a discount -- to sell 126 Typhoons to India"

What ^^^ implies is that if you were in the MMRCA contest, you cannot be eligible for any resubmission.

Of course, that leaves the JSF

I think LM wrote these rules.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Dec 2014 17:35

The JSF was never evaluated.Being a 5th-gen stealth fighter with so much exotic tech,negotiating a TOT "build-in-India" deal will be a nightmare,taking years of negotiations IST. The other cointenders may be evaluated,but the most likely happening as mentioned is "more of the same",buying more Flankers.If so,and regardless of the MMRCA /Raffy deal,I wish that the IAF realize that they possess no dedicated bomber whatsoever,are at a huge disadvantage vs China, and order some SU-34s or even a fair number of upgraded Backfires,readily available,for carrying our N-tipped missiles.

Vamsee · Post by **Vamsee** » 31 Dec 2014 18:57

Rafale in storm clouds, Parrikar says IAF can make do with Sukhoi-30s

Speaking to the media on Tuesday evening, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said there were “complications” in the negotiations that have already dragged on for almost three years, with the French side reluctant to meet commitments that the IAF had specified in the tender.

Ominously for Dassault, Parrikar said that additional Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, which HAL builds in Nashik, were adequate for the IAF in case it was decided not to procure the Rafale.

The IAF currently plans to have 272 Su-30MKI fighters by about 2018. HAL’s Nashik production line is building the fighter at Rs 358 crore each, less than half the estimated cost of buying the Rafale.

“The Su-30MKI is an adequate aircraft for meeting the air force’s needs”, said Parrikar.

member_28911 · Post by **member_28911** » 31 Dec 2014 20:38

^ +1
Keep building Su-30MKI till 2022-23 when FGFA will be ready. For numbers increase the order of LCA MkI.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 31 Dec 2014 21:27

More a ploy to get more from the French? That is my leaning.

Rafale is not going anywhere. I fully expect it to fly in IAF colors.

Will · Post by **Will** » 31 Dec 2014 23:34

The Rafale deal is in a mess no doubt. But everyone plumping for more Russian planes forget that the main reason for the MMRCA was to reduce dependence on Russian equipment. India needs to break out of the Russian stranglehold where arms are concerned. Some Russian official complained that India was taking Russia for granted. Russia is forgetting that it has been Russia that has been taking India for granted by not meeting obligations and arming India's enemies. Contracts with Russia are not worth the paper they are signed on. Today Russia is in a bad situation and their industry is in the doldrums. What sense does it make for India to continue to support the Russian arms industry when they tech India pays to develop will soon end up in China and Pakistan. Its only with India that Russia cries IPR.

Having said that we have screwed ourselves leaving no alternative and both the French and the Russians have us by the b****. This will continue to happen till we build a truly indigenous defence industry.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 01 Jan 2015 00:10

Cosmo_R wrote:What ^^^ implies is that if you were in the MMRCA contest, you cannot be eligible for any resubmission.

Of course, that leaves the JSF I think LM wrote these rules.

Under the MRCA rules, no one other than Rafale can be selected at this point, whether previously in contest or not.

If they want something besides Rafale, the first step will be to scrap the MRCA, at which point those rules don't matter and it could be anything from Gripen to F-35.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 01 Jan 2015 00:16

Ankar wrote:^ +1
Keep building Su-30MKI till 2022-23 when FGFA will be ready. For numbers increase the order of LCA MkI.

The serviceability issues have also been addressed to an extent and will improve. Best to rely on MKI, LCA.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 01 Jan 2015 00:27

F-35 is no MMRCA since one can't be reduce dependence on Russia and increase dependence on USA! I never understand how USA politicking in the Indian subcontinent remains ignored!

Shalav · Post by **Shalav** » 01 Jan 2015 00:42

Unless the forthcoming Obama visit to India results in breakthrough agreements, such a Make in India for the F35, the bargaining on the Rafale will continue - at-least from the Indian side. Dassault always has the option to break-off the bargaining citing no progress.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 01 Jan 2015 03:25

What ever happened to the light-medium-heavy philosophy of the IAF? Will it be broken so fast?

On F-35, parts are made in various countries, so the idea of "Make in India" or ToT does not even arise. At best India would get a line where India would contribute to making some parts and assembling the plane for herself. But ............... it ain't happening.

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 01 Jan 2015 04:00

The Telegraph: Rafale deal hits air pocket

New Delhi, Dec. 31: Is the French kiss coming unstuck?

Three Januarys ago, India's defence ministry had announced that French firm Dassault Aviation's Rafale fighter jet had been selected for exclusive negotiations to meet the Indian Air Force's combat aircraft requirement of 126 planes.

The deal, described as the "world's biggest French kiss", was estimated to be $10 billion initially but by common consent has now soared upwards of $20 billion, making it one of the biggest military contracts in the world.

Three years after the selection, a senior Indian defence official has confirmed that the Indian negotiators are wary because "the French seem to be going back on their word".

Defence minister Manohar Parrikar said that Dassault Aviation had agreed to appoint an "empowered person" who was likely to visit New Delhi next month to iron out the differences.

Ministry sources say the contract negotiations are log-jammed over the issue of guarantees for those among the 126 aircraft that are to be made in India. They say the Request for Proposals - or global tender issued in 2007 - had specifically said that all 126 aircraft had to be guaranteed to operate for a specific number of hours by the original equipment manufacturer, in this case Dassault.

Under the tender, the Indian Air Force would buy 18 aircraft "off the shelf" in "flyaway condition". Dassault would stand guarantee for these 18 aircraft, its officials are understood to have told the Indian negotiators.

But how could it be expected to stand guarantee for the aircraft that would be assembled in India by the defence public sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the French negotiators are understood to have asked.

HAL would have a work-share arrangement with other public and private firms, and would assemble the aircraft largely from partly and semi-knocked down kits to be supplied by Dassault.

French sources said earlier this month that they were not too worried about the prolonged negotiations. Indeed, they said, the contract to upgrade the Indian Air Force's Mirage 2000 aircraft, also supplied by Dassault, had taken longer than three years.

But today, Indian defence ministry officials speculated privately on what the air force's options were - ordering more Sukhoi 30Mkis from Russia, for instance - to meet the requirement for medium multi-role combat aircraft.

A former air chief, Air Chief Marshal N.A.K. Browne (now ambassador to Norway), had said that "there is no Plan B", underlining the urgency of procuring the Rafale.

Nor do the rules of procurement permit opening negotiations with other potential suppliers under the same tender.

If the L1 (the lowest bidder, Rafale) is not found to be compliant, the tender would have to be scrapped, pushing back the already delayed acquisition programme by several more years at a time the air force's combat strength is falling by the month. The Rafale was selected over five other competitors.

The officials are still not ruling out a contract with the French because they believe that Dassault, which has not been able to sell the aircraft to any air force apart from France's own Armee de l'air, is under pressure to bag the Indian contract.

For India and its air force, the medium multi-role combat aircraft is currently the largest single defence contract being negotiated.

The Typhoon and the Rafale, both twin-engine fighter jets that were seen in action over Libya recently and claim to be in the four-plus generation of aircraft, were short-listed after 643-point technical and flight evaluation tests by the air force through 2009 and 2010. The Rafale beat the Typhoon on price in the final round.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 01 Jan 2015 04:01

You cannot make a modern 5th generation fighter 100% in house as a foreign customer unless you are willing to give so much time to absorb technology that you significantly risk diminishing capability gained from the actual acquisition of a cutting edge 5th generation technology in the first place. Nor is it economical to aim for 100% for a 100 odd order unless "money is not a concern" or you have "skin in the game" as developmental partners, whereby you have access to shaping the requirements and/or the future path of development of the project. Nations that have chosen to incorporate anything other than a direct FMS purchase model (Italy, Japan so far) have chosen to go for the most "bang for the buck" around the 1-2 Billion dollar domestic investment aimed at generating and retaining skilled aerospace jobs, fostering advanced aerospace manufacturing of critical components etc.

So do not expect much other than what has been already reported (reports about UAV's, Attack helos, transporters, perhaps more P8's etc) and definitely nothing on a crazy deal offered and expected on the F-35 or even the older Super Hornet. I do not think the IAF would be interested in a competition for the MRCA if for some unlikely reason the rafale is canned. They would most likely go ahead with the already selected, established and widely accepted (political) Su-30MKI's to make up the fleet numbers even at the risk of not diversifying away from Russian kit.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 01 Jan 2015 05:24

I think it is bye-bye Rafale. Maybe the GOI will buy 40 Rafales off the shelf built in France configured for 'strategic strike'.

The whole idea of being able to import an 'aerospace ecosystem' is coming a cropper. The MoD and the IAF will have to realize that such an ecosystem can only be built around the LCA.

The gap fillers will have to be the LCA Mk1, the SU-30MKI, and perhaps a few squadrons of the SH (if purchased quickly under the FMS route).

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 01 Jan 2015 08:12

Kakkaji wrote:I think it is bye-bye Rafale. Maybe the GOI will buy 40 Rafales off the shelf built in France configured for 'strategic strike'.

Unfortunately, the Rafale is not really suitable for a strategic role. Good ESM systems but its unfortunately still susceptible to enemy air and ground based radar, both of which will be peering into our airspace.

The gap fillers will have to be the LCA Mk1, the SU-30MKI, and perhaps a few squadrons of the SH (if purchased quickly under the FMS route).

The SH is a good workhorse but doesn't deliver that significant a capability boost over the Su-30MKI (though it'll be far better in terms of operational availability and sortie generation). And while far cheaper than the Rafale, in absolute terms its still a pretty pricey aircraft.

brar_w wrote:They would most likely go ahead with the already selected, established and widely accepted (political) Su-30MKI's to make up the fleet numbers even at the risk of not diversifying away from Russian kit.

The fleet would then be entirely Russian by 2030, aside from the Tejas. Doable but worrying all the same.