Eastern Europe/Ukraine

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by chanakyaa »

OOkraine on sale!! Going once, going twice, SOLD!!

Finance Ministry - SOLD
Health Ministry - SOLD
Economic Dev Ministry - SOLD
Anti-Corruption - Just Sold!!
P0roshenko lucky to keep ministry of Chocolates

OOkraine’s anti-c0rruption agency could go to foreigner...Geeorgia's S@@kashvili?? No $h!t
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

http://mashable.com/2014/12/27/ukraine-blasts/
Blasts in junta controlled cities.
Olexiy Melnyk, co-director for Foreign Relations and International Security Programs at the Kiev-based Razumkov Center, says he is concerned about violence from Ukraine’s war-torn east spilling over into other regions. Melnyk believes pro-Russian rebels have snuck through Ukrainian military lines, and are operating “from south to north to west” Ukraine.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Philip »

The West blinks first?

Sanctions are a double-edged sword! The EU is realizing that it is fast losing its valuable Russian markets,esp. for high-value goods like cars,etc.,as Russian roubles go less the distance these days. They are also afeared that the Russian energy tap might be turned off if the US desire to impose more sanctions is forced upon them.

http://rt.com/news/218271-eu-confrontat ... ne-russia/
West wants to end confrontation with Russia over Ukraine – EU foreign policy chief
Published time: December 29, 2014
Western powers want to find common ground with Russia and end their confrontational approach over Ukraine, the EU's foreign policy chief told Italian media. She denied that the EU differs from the US in its position towards dealing with the crisis.

READ MORE: Ukrainians name Donbass deaths ‘event of the year,’ ignore EU deal – poll

Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, identified Ukraine as one of the top conflicts worrying Europe, especially regarding its impact on the eurozone’s relations with Russia.

During an interview with Italy's la Repubblica newspaper, Mogherini suggested opening up direct dialogue with Moscow.

“On the one hand, we should strengthen our support for Ukraine, where the internal economic situation could very quickly become very serious. And, on the other hand, we should begin a direct debate with Moscow on our relations and the role Russia could play in other scenarios of the crisis,” Mogherini said.

“Even in Kiev everyone asks the question of how the conflict could be brought to an end,” the official added, saying that the situation is “very difficult for Russia.” She added that it is in Moscow’s interest to “cooperate.”

READ MORE: Moscow to supply coal, electricity to Ukraine without prepayment
At the same time, Mogherini rejected the idea that the EU’s position on the crisis differs from that of the US.

“It is not true that there is a soft Europe stance, which opposes the US hardline position. On the contrary, the latest data shows that trade between Russia and Europe is declining, while trade between Russia and the US is increasing,” she pointed out.

Mogherini said that Washington's views on Russia match those of Europe, adding that “everyone wants to get out of the logic of confrontation.”

READ MORE: Obama signs Russia sanctions bill, no plans to use it for now

The EU foreign policy chief also identified situations in the Middle East and Libya as major concerns for Europe, pointing out that Russia plays a significant role on the international arena and could help to resolve those conflicts.
“We all know Russia plays an important role not only in Ukraine, but also in Syria, Iran, the Middle East, Libya,” she said.

Austrian President Heinz Fischer (Reuters / Dado Ruvic)
More sanctions against Russia are ‘unwise and harmful’

Meanwhile, Austrian President Heinz Fischer warned against intensifying sanctions against Russia, calling the move “unwise and harmful” in an interview to Wirtschaftsblatt newspaper.

The approach that more and more sanctions should be implemented against Russia until it is “weak enough” to forcefully accept the EU’s own “political objectives” is a mistake, according to Fischer.

READ MORE: 'Don’t get Russia wrong': NATO intel warns against misjudging Moscow on Ukraine


“I support those who say that we have reached a stage where...the imposition of new sanctions against Russia will continue to hinder its development, but will not bring us closer to an amicable solution,” Fischer said, adding that it will only create a deeper rift.

“The Russian economy has a certain degree of robustness, but the sanctions pose considerable problems...a serious crisis in Russia and an economic collapse would only create more problems. The doors between Europe and Russia must remain open in the economic field,” he stressed.

A woman enters a destroyed building after it was damaged by recent shelling in the western part of Donetsk, eastern Ukraine (Reuters / Antonio Bronic)

What the Ukraine crisis needs are talks around decentralization reforms, Fischer noted.

“Serious talk of reforms in the area of decentralization or federalization would have to be done, which would foster a situation in eastern Ukraine where both sides could live together.”

In terms of moving towards a solution in Ukraine, a respected ceasefire and reasonable dialogue would need to be observed, Fischer added.

READ MORE: 'Difficult' new Ukraine peace talks begin in Minsk as Kiev sets course for NATO

According to the Austrian leader, the EU overestimated the appeal of the free trade deal, which forced Ukraine to choose between Europe and Russia.

“Brussels apparently overestimated the attractiveness of European Association Agreement compared to the other option for Ukraine – namely the offer from Russia,” he said. “It was recognized only at the last moment that it was a real ordeal for Ukraine to choose between EU offer and the billion offer from [Russian President] Vladimir Putin, which was better suited for the realities faced by Ukraine in the fall of 2013.”


Ukraine needs to be free to build its own relationships with both Europe and Russia, Fischer concluded.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

A change in European stand will only come when Ukraine is at the verge of default and individual states refuse to cough up the money. And it will certainly not be announced by political jokers of European union. More likely by Merkel.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by chanakyaa »

2014 "End of Year" report and a look into what 2015 might bring
Introduction:
By any measure 2014 has been a truly historic year which saw huge, I would say, even tectonic developments. This year ends in very high instability, and the future looks hard to guess. I don't think that anybody can confidently predict what might happen next year. So what I propose to do today is something far more modest. I want to look into some of the key events of 2014 and think of them as vectors with a specific direction and magnitude. I want to look in which direction a number of key actors (countries) "moved" this year and with what degree of intensity. Then I want to see whether it is likely that they will change course or determination. Then adding up all the "vectors" of these key actors (countries) I want to make a calculation and see what resulting vector we will obtain for the next year. Considering the large number of "unknown unknowns" (to quote Rumsfeld) this exercise will not result in any kind of real prediction, but my hope is that it will prove a useful analytical reference

....(Click link above for the entire post)
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by vijaykarthik »

Looks like a separatist leader was killed by other fellow separatists.
Is this a new twist or what?
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

The Americansare stillworking at convincing people that Yanukvich eviction was not a coup.
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/world ... usted.html

But this one is funny.
Few outside the Russian propaganda bubble ever seriously entertained the Kremlin’s line.
Few outiside the western propaganda net believe anything that they say.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Austin »

Funny thing Russia has not even entered in 2015 and the recession ( 4 % GDP drop projected) and Europeans are already panicking as it would be their economy would also be getting seriously impacted .
Now EU would see the US game and in the end US has nothing to loose economically and its geo-strategic game is at EU expense :rotfl:

Hollande: economic sanctions against Russia must be stopped

Russia 'may face chaos' if extra sanctions imposed: Germany
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2015/0 ... e-j06.html

Nice article countering western propaganda.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by vijaykarthik »

Hollande says that the sanctions should be removed against Russia if they stop interfering in the Ukraine crisis. Also mentions that he spoke to Putin and Putin told him that he doesn't want to ANNEX anymore of Ukraine.

Interesting development this. They are also meeting in Astana next week. Oh, Merkel is also joining along with Chocolate.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Tuvaluan »

All Putin needs for Russia is the warm water ports of Crimea in sevastopol -- this is of crucial geopolitical importance to Russia. IMO, this is why Putin has shown no interest in the nazi infested parts of west ukraine across the dneiper. The question is how long will it take for EU to build ports in West Ukraine...not for a while if all EU states are going broke.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Shreeman »

^^^ Why this obsession with simplistic analysis. Did takeover of crimea by NATO bother russia? Yes. Did the country as such want a former part of USSR and last buffer in NATO? No..Do they worry about engjnes/tech etc being disrupted? Yes. Do they care about other russians who may be first cousins or even brothers? yes. Is there a single "they" here on either side? No. Will France, Germany etc stop meddling in Ukraine? No. Will things be worse in the spring? Yes. Will russia leave odessa alone? Not if it is attainable. Will the "west" keep borders "cold" if Russia and NATO faced each other, but this time with a proper land bases and cannon fodder for westerners? No. Will the poles hate russians any less if the sun rose in the west? no. Does anybody cares that ukraine is down the toilet like syria, iraq, iran, libya, georgia, and afghanistan before it? no.

if the ceasefire holds, its because a temporary looting/sharing agreement is in place. There will always be More alex nevelnys, pussy riots, and more violence in general in russia. doesnt hide domestic problems in the west any more, the big bad bear. But right now the threat to europe is not from russia, and even the mighty europeans (angela merkel, chief incharge) have ever been able to fight on two fronts.

odessa is a fine port, and across the pond are anything from turkey to moldova. port, shmort. russia could build itself alternatives to crimea too. but the ports are dead red herrings here. like everything else.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Tuvaluan »

^^^
Why this obsession with simplistic analysis. Did takeover of crimea by NATO bother russia? Yes. Did the country as such want a former part of USSR and last buffer in NATO? No
I am not saying there is only one reason for the behaviour of the actors in this situation (that would be silly) but geographical assets that provide capability will be defended by the states that possess them. I suggest you take a look at the number of warm water ports available to russia. The northern part is the arctic ocean and ports are inoperable for most of the year except for murmansk. The rest of the ports are on the pacific ocean. Only the ports on the black sea are operational at all times -- I would like to see EU try the same stunt on East Ukraine/Crimea now or ever. this is not a temporary ceasefire, and we can observe events to see who's right in due course. Larger point is that Ukraine's ports provided Russia with access to the meditteranean sea/atlantic ocean and are strategically important for Russia. Putin clearly has done his cost/benefit calculations and figured out that the cost of pushing into western ukraine with a hostile population is not worth the trouble, and is happy to just do easy pickings of east ukraine with a russia-friendly population.
if the ceasefire holds, its because a temporary looting/sharing agreement is in place.
AFAICT, the eastern part of Ukraine wants to be part of Russia unlike the western part, so any perception of looting/sharing is just a matter of whose side one is on. The ceasefire is likely to hold because Russia and Germany and other EU nations have lot more to lose than the USA -- there is no common "western" interest here. Clearly there is a divergence in the EU and US views on how far this war should be taken to russia, and the EU states would have to be stupid to push the war further, so the above news item indicates a face-saver for both sides, so they can put an end to this episode and move on.
odessa is a fine port, and across the pond are anything from turkey to moldova. port, shmort. russia could build itself alternatives to crimea too. but the ports are dead red herrings here. like everything else.
Nonsense. Losing control of warm water ports to adversaries in such a large country that is landlocked to the west is hard to compensate -- that is the first step to strategic encirclement of russia by its adversaries. This war is being fought at multiple dimensions surely, but some losses are harder to recover from than others. I say this because sea-routes can support much larger throughput of materials in tonnage compared to land routes -- think of the difference between the amount that can be plied by one container ship, as opposed to land-based transportation. This also means that if Russia's adversaries took control of all the ukrainian warm water ports in the black sea they would be able to rapidly build capacity/capability to challenge Russia in Ukraine -- there are very few Russian ports on the black sea that are currently operational.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Shreeman »

The interpretation in Tuvalu, is but one way the dice could come up. I ask -- after georgia, can there be a ukraine? Except I asked (of myself, not the forum) this not now, but when the question was relevant. Those that favor Russia, claimed glory to Russia and the military victory and line drawn in the sand for NATO and Russia is different and so on. They could have been right.

Re. the ports, there is more to the coastline than the words floating about in the media.

Losing Crimea was not an option for Russia. Crimea is not a commercial decision. The place was/is russian.

Is losing Odessa a feasible option for NATO now? Is ukraine sustainable in ANY way now? Media noises are all the same -- recall the CG related nonsense in the other thread. The good cop (europe)/ bad cop(US) only causes a few more sheep to lose their wool for eye shades.

I dont think the "ceasefire" will be stable. Ukraine is not georgia. And this time the investors seem to be in no mood to keep any agreed bargain when the snow melts.

You could still be right, but my hat will still save me from RF radiation based cancer.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Tuvaluan »

Tuvalu is rich in fishes including the infinitely knowledgable Nostradamus Nostradaminae species and this gives us Tuvaluans an edge when it comes to reading fish entrails to predict the future of this galaxy with some degree of confidence...just putting it out there.

As for my argument re: ports, I am not basing on it on anything I have read in the media, except for reports of specific events that are likely to be dots worth connecting to see the contours of the eventual picture, metaphorically speaking. The only things worth watching in the news are verifiable events, people lie and their opinions are most baseless, so all of that is meant to be ignored while connecting dots and reading fish entrails.
After Georgia, can there be a ukraine
Ukraine will exist in some form, but the more relevant question is whether this Ukraine will be able to sustain itself without assistance from sugardaddies in the west while antagonizing russia. So the question of a sustainable Ukraine is something that should worry the west, not Russia -- which is the implication of my earlier post about this being a stalemate of sorts.

Russia has enough oil to keep Eastern Ukraine in its fold, and EU/USA do not have the werewithal to fill the gap should they manage to tease ukraine out of Russia's fold.

Who is going to pay Ukraine's energy bills? is Germany going to foot that energy bill and screw with it one of its top energy suppliers (Russia), and if so, what are their energy alternatives if they antagonize Russia? The german populace is not as keen as the Merkel govt. seems to be, when it comes to antagonizing russia for this reason. Also, the answers to these questions will change depending on the time frame. Will Ukraine remain with Russia in 5 years? 10 years? 50 years? Depending on when Russia's oil stops being useful leverage to keep the parts of Ukraine in its orbit, the answer will be different, so I think the questions have to be more specific to avoid confusion.

clearly, there are many variables that can affect the outcome in the short term, which include (a) china's actions in its oil trade with russia -- china has been buying Russia's dollars and replacing it with Yuan, so it is in China's interests to increase its own power quotient at the expense of all other players. Russia/China trade is also going to be de-dollarized according to recent reports (b) Russia declining population growth -- this variable will probably affect whether Russia manages to be in one piece or not in the future. (c) Non western investors in Russian economy that compensate for the exiting western companies.

If India and China have a strong growth rate in the next decades, then Russia may be able to sustain its agenda even without western investment...but who knows.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Yesterday French President Francois Hollande made a statement to end sanctions against Russia immediately ( he meant 'Now') and today this incident suggests a curious link that points to those that will be p!ssed by his statement.
Hollande made quite a strong statement that sanctions are hurting EU and not as much to Russia.

Who will be p!ssed at that statement - US? KSA? take your pick.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by habal »

USA is al-qaeda, al-qaeda is USA
USA is ISIS, ISIS is USA

Putin presents condolences to Hollande over terrorist attack on office of Charlie Hebdo
"The Russian leader condemned the barbaric action and expressed the hope that its perpetrators would be found and would face condign punishment,” the Kremlin press service went on to say.
Putin asked Francois Hollande to convey a feeling of profound compassion and words of support to the families of the dead and wished the earliest recovery to the injured.
The French president thanked Putin for his manifestation of friendly feelings.
http://itar-tass.com/en/world/770482

France Seeks End to Russia Sanctions
French president sounds like he is not opposed to going some way to accommodate Moscow on Ukraine

Hollande is hurting politically on sanctions and the Mistral fiasco.

Clearly he would prefer them lifted, but in a way that saves his face and leaves him free to argue they "worked" and he was right to favor them initially.

By tying end of sanctions to some undefined "progress" that Moscow is supposed to deliver he also ducks responsibility if he fails.

He'll claim he had done all he could have and tell French workers they should really be angry with Russia.

This is an excerpt from an article that originally appeared at France 24
http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/06/2245
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

From a relativelyneutral source
http://www.dw.de/ukraine-preparing-for- ... a-18172158

Ukbapzis preparing for war. Hmmmm
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by habal »

Ukbapzi sponsors would like a war with Russia before they can fully implement the alternate SWIFT system. Atleast that's what I think this fuss is all about.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Philip »

The asinine EU oafs after the Paris attacks should realize who the real enemy is! They have been sold a snake-oil scare by the US against Russia and are now learing the hard way that the real enemy to world peace are the fanatic,rabid followers of militant ,jihadist Islam,who cannot tolerate a liberal world free and democratic.Russia waged war against the same scum in Chechenya and won a bloody war there with large casualties,but it "bit the bullet",past time for surrender circus cycling buffoon Hollande to show that he has "nuts" not just for frolicking with his lady loves!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by chanakyaa »

Ummh!! Looks like EU has realized that sanctions are hurting their economies more than than Russian. Has the back paddling begun?

EU Says Russia Showing 'Some Signs' of New Approach on Ukraine
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Tuvaluan »

the back pedalling began a few days ago. quote from the article posted earlier by Austin:
"The goal was never to push Russia politically and economically into chaos," Gabriel told the Bild am Sonntag.

"Whoever wants that will provoke a much more dangerous situation for all of us in Europe," he said, pointing out that Russia was a nuclear power.
The last statement is with reference to Russia's restating its nuclear doctrine of its willingness to do a first strike should the EU start pushing in on its borders, as the USA would like it to do. That's not going to happen. Of course, anal-e-sys in Indian think tanks are mouthing the US point of view that russia is making such threats because it is weak and is about to come crumbling down...maybe so, but the EU will not take the Russian nuclear doctrine as lightly as the USA.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Philip »

Mil analysts say that despite the current rouble slide,etc. there is no let up in funds for mil modernisation,esp Russia's strat deterrent.3 new Borei class subs have been commissioned, with many more to come,at least 8.They will deal with the US,20 ICBMs with 10 warheads each .That's at least 1.600 warheads! For Europe,they have a range of new land based mobile missiles and enough ground troops and air and armour support top make life miserable for NASTO which is in the throes of troop/mil reductions ,fighting off the EU's eco woes. With Greece about to keel over and be dumped from the EU,the EU desperately wants to resolve its affairs with Russia despite US pressure. Putin can hang in for at least two years before reorganizing his strategy.He can fiddle about with the energy tap to the EU whenever he wants if they up the sanctions ante and new nations are greedily eyeing the opportunities to export to Russia goods now banned from the EU.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

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deleted
Last edited by Gerard on 09 Jan 2015 15:55, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please maintain thread discipline
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

It seems that the $350 billion reserve that Russia has built up is a masterstroke.
Russia wont fail long before Yats starts eating grass.
And pet dog eating grass would be the failure of US of A and the fire eaters of DC.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Y. Kanan »

Is the fighting picking up in intensity once again? Kind of looks like it:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30744825
http://news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-sepa ... 08172.html
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

Russia might demand the $3 billion a little earlier just to put some Washington chhaddhis in a twist.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/ ... 6M20150110
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by habal »

this is the ukrainian fighter pilot who supposed to have shot down MH17

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... board.html
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

Looks like the Donetsk airport is going to change hands.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... se-4971469
A defender of the airport, who are popularly known as 'Cyborgs', claims the rebels have issued an ultimatum to leave the terminal by 5pm today or face destruction.
One of them told Ukraine's LIGA Novosti: "They're smashing us from both sides with tanks 400 metres away and artillery.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Surya »

The New Ukraine Is Run by Rogues, Sexpots, Warlords, Lunatics and Oligarchs

Read more at
http://observer.com/2015/01/the-new-ukr ... z3Or1xJ29X
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Satya_anveshi »

Ukraine is new Af-Pak
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Tuvaluan »

Ukraine and Af-Pak are hot spots far away from the US, where the US can afford to raise the temperature without worries of blowback, and cause pain to its strategic competitors.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by vijaykarthik »

2 interesting things happening side by side

a. Russia cut off gas supply through Ukraine. Plans to do it through turkey instead. (I thought the pipeline isnt ready yet?) EU doing its self-righteous act. Looks like Alexei Miller has given an ultimatum
b. Fight intensifying in E Ukraine.

In the meanwhile the peace conf in berlin didn't work too well but Kiev insists that a new conf will happen soon!
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by RSoami »

Was talking to a gentleman well versed with the regional dynamics and he said two interesting things.
1. European Union has lost its high moral ground by supporting the Coup
2. The security architecture that EU was building together with Russia in eastern Europe has crumbled. Every eastern European country from the baltic states to Poland can feel Russian threat psychologically more than ever.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Shreeman »

EU never had any moral high ground. Hasnt even existed long enough to gain one.

The security architecture thing was a flop long ago due to actions in Libya, turkey, Syria. A small pond away and hemorrhaging more serious issues into oiuyorupe daily. Some at invitation, even today.

You need a big pond on either side for true security -- atlantic/pacific, or arabian/bengal. Europe needs to start digging already.

Ps: mountains also work. Must be steep, and high. Also, fighting a fair bit in the winter. Not like the talipan who hibernate at the first snow. You have to admit the slavs are a tougher bunch. All that hardware repaired in these six months will come handy in march.
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by chanakyaa »

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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by UlanBatori »

How come there is no alert here - on PeeAref of all places?
Russia throws down the gauntlet: energy supply to Europe cut off; petrodollar abandoned as currency war escalates
-Friday, January 16, 2015 Mike Adams, the Health Range

"Yesterday Russia cut off its natural gas supply to Europe, "plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated," reports the Daily Mail. [1]

"This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply. Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in."

Learn more: http://www.naturalnews.com/048313_curre ... z3P3zP7C4Q
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Re: Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Post by Shreeman »

Turkee gas route. Nothing is cut. If yourope wants gas, they kan get it from turkee. As such ukraine was carrying less than 7.5% of the 30% russia sales.

Russia should have dun this in aktubar. winter fighting here we come?
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