Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 25 Jan 2015 18:22

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGEMEH- ... l=84503534

English speaking soldier caught on camera in Mariupol (tells the reporter `out of my face' @ 0.13) - shown
on a Ukrainian TV channel.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Jan 2015 19:41

These chocolatos will never learn!

http://rt.com/news/226043-ukraine-minsk ... oroshenko/

Ukraine military 'to boost forces in the east' as Poroshenko calls to stick to Minsk accord
Published time: January 25, 2015

Kiev “sees no alternative” to the Minsk ceasefire accords, President Petro Poroshenko said. However, the Ukrainian military is building up troops in the east to conduct “an adequate response” to the militia advancement, the Defense Ministry stated.

The violence in eastern Ukraine escalated recently with the ceasefire deal penned in Minsk last year finally shattering. Ukraine last week attempted to launch a massive offensive operation against militia positions, but it ended in failure. Their opponents have since pressed forward and gained ground, advancing in the direction of the port city of Mariupol in the south of the Donetsk region.

READ MORE: Donetsk militia 'not going to storm Mariupol', trades accusations with Kiev

Amid an apparent setback for the Ukrainian military, President Petro Poroshenko called for sticking to the Minsk accord.

“The Minsk agreement is a priority for us, we don’t see any alternative to it. We will not allow it to be undermined. Everything relies on it. Now we must implement it comprehensively and accurately,” the Ukrainian president said.

The ceasefire deal between Kiev and the militia forces, which was sponsored by the OSCE and Russia, was never fully implemented. It helped tone down the violence, but OSCE monitors reported regular violations committed by both sides of the conflict. The self-proclaimed Donetsk and Lugansk Republics accused Kiev’s troops of launching regular attacks on residential areas of Donetsk, Lugansk and other cities.

While the tension continued, Kiev angled for switching the peace negotiation from Minsk to another format - the so-called “Normandy format” - which would exclude the rebels and include several Western nations. Attempts for talks were virtually abandoned recently, with two key meetings canceled due to failure to agree on an agenda.

As Poroshenko demonstrates a willingness to talk directly to the rebels, his military are building up troops in the east of the country.
Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko walks along a formation of soldiers during his visit to the Zhitomir Region. (RIA Novosti/Nikolay Lazarenko)

“To respond adequately to the actions of the 'terrorist' groups, we are continuing to build up reserves in practically all sectors where combat action is being conducted,” Defense Minister Stepan Poltorak said on Sunday.

READ MORE: Donetsk shelled as Kiev ‘orders massive fire’ on militia-held E. Ukraine

The militia said they no longer trusted Poroshenko and his calls for peace after months of the ceasefire.

“Poroshenko is cynical beyond all limits. For us the Minsk process was a question of life for our civilians. For Kiev it was a cover [for preparing the offensive],” Denis Pushilin, a Donbass representative in Minsk, told Interfax.

“Why do they pretend in the US and Europe that they don’t see Kiev’s aggressive policies? It’s business for them in Washington, and we are being killed here,” he added.

The violence in eastern Ukraine has claimed more than 5,000 lives, according to the latest UN count, and sent some 1.5 million refugees fleeing for their lives to Russia or other parts of Ukraine.

READ MORE: 5,000+ killed in Ukraine: UN concerned, Donetsk rebel leader talks of 'offensive'

The episode in Mariupol on Saturday claimed 30 lives, when a barrage of rockets hit a residential area in the east of the port city. Kiev was quick to accuse the militia of launching the attack, which the latter denied.

The Donetsk Republic leader said that after "Kiev decided to shift the blame on us for its erroneous fire from Grad multiple rocket launchers at residential areas [in Mariupol]," he gave an order to suppress the positions of the Ukrainian military stationed east of the port city.

Zakharchenko added that the forces of the People’s Republic of Donetsk (DPR) have no plans of storming the city itself.

It remains unclear whether militia forces will be strong enough to take over Mariupol. Over the months of the ceasefire, the Ukrainian military has fortified its positions around the militia-held areas.

During a phone conversation on Sunday, Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry, called for an immediate cessation of shelling in eastern Ukraine and for the withdrawal of heavy weaponry, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

Both Moscow and Washington confirmed their readiness to promote a peaceful resolution to the Ukrainian crisis, with Lavrov stressing that “actual results may only be achieved through direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk, which Kiev is avoiding by all means, taking a clear course at the violent suppression of southeastern Ukraine."

The Russian FM also urged the US to use its influence on the Ukrainian authorities in Kiev in order to persuade them to backtrack from the military scenario, they said.

In another phone call with High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Federica Mogherini, Lavrov stressed the shelling of Donetsk and Mariupol should get an objective investigation, with the involvement of OSCE observers.

The Russian Foreign Ministry emphasized “that if Ukrainian authorities had accepted the January 15 proposal made by the Russian president on an urgent withdrawal of heavy weaponry from the line, specified by the Minsk memorandum from September 19, 2014, the tragedies of Volnovakha, Donetsk and Mariupol could have been avoided.”

Meanwhile Russia cements ties with the Abhkazia republic,in the backdrop of the UKR crisis.

State Duma ratifies key strategic treaty with Abkhazia
Published time: January 23, 2015 13:59

The Lower House has ratified a treaty on alliance and strategic partnership with the Republic of Abkhazia, introducing the principle of collective defense with a special military force formed jointly by the two states.

The treaty ratified by the State Duma on Friday was signed by the Russian and Abkhazian presidents in November 2014. It provides for forming a common security and defense zone, and guarantees that in case of foreign military aggression against one of the countries the other would consider it aggression against itself. The two nations will also take joint measures for protection of the Abkhazian state border.

Russia also pledged all-rounded diplomatic support for Abkhazia in a bid to increase the number of nations who officially recognize the republic. Moscow also wants to promote Abkhazia’s membership in various international organizations.

However, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin completely ruled out the possibility of Abkhazia’s accession into the Russian Federation. “We have recognized the Republic of Abkhazia and the Republic of South Ossetia as independent states. We are doing a lot to ensure international recognition of these two nations,” Karasin said at a press conference on Friday in the State Duma.

The nations of Abkhazia and South Ossetia emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent civil war in Georgia. The republics weren’t officially recognized, but the post-Soviet bloc CIS deployed peacekeeping forces to the region to prevent further bloodshed.

Russia officially recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in August 2008 – shortly after the Russian military repelled the Georgian armed forces’ attack on South Ossetia in the so called “five days war”. Several other countries have also recognized the republic’s independence following Russia’s example.

In December 2013, Russia introduced a free trade regime with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

PS:Pres. O'Bomber's swipe at Russai during his press conference in Delhi was extremely undiplomatic.One can expect a typical Russian response and he has offended his host by speaking out of turn,saying that the US will increase sanctions upon Russia.Russia and Putin couldn't care a fart about O'Bomber's anti-Russian policies and will only harden its attitude towards events in the MEast ,Syria in aprticular.Unlike Yanquis,Russians know hardship well and despite the aggression and invasions against them from the Mongols,Napoleon,Hitler et al,they have never succumbed and never been defeated. O'Bomber would do well to watch that superb Hollywood film,"Enemy at the Gates" to understand Russian resolve.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 25 Jan 2015 20:33

Philip ji, this point of USA Prez talking in India about Ukraine is well made - regardless of any mention of Ukbapzis. It is one thing that journalists from USA come to India and present questions about reach of US realpolitik and support to others directly/indirectly. It is quite a different from noisy scenes created by throwing fists against a few NRIs when the Indian PM visited USA.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 26 Jan 2015 03:37

invasions against them from the Mongols,Napoleon,Hitler et al,they have never succumbed and never been defeated

Mongols beat the russians and ruled the steppes for around 200 years.The golden horde.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Jan 2015 13:53

The Strat page says that Russia is on the brink of an offensive to shore up conquest of the Crimea,"red flagged" as it does,saying that there exists a window of opportunity for Russia to do so while the UKR-EU-US have yet to get their mil act together.
The victory for the Left in Greece is the immediate crisis at hand and will consume the EU for many months to come.Its financial crisis will paralyse it from taking any mil action in the UKR. The Russians just have to do what they're doing right now, steadily beefing up DR forces with eqpt.,etc., and copious qtys. of vodka no doubt! The UKR is bankrupt,its military refusing to learn from their losses and suffer numiliation every time they face off with the DR militia!

Mariupol is perhaps going to be the next target of opportunity.If the DR forces can prevent the port from being reinforced by land by the Kiev clique,then all that Russia and the DR have to do is wait for the fruit to fall ,perhaps in the Spring.The need to supply the Crimea by land at the moment until a bridge is built linking Russia and the peninsula,is required in order to retain absolute control,though maritime assets can also be pressed into service if needed.

After taking a pasting,the Choco soldier cries for help!
http://rt.com/news/line/2015-01-25/#79759

Kiev urgently summons NATO-Ukraine meeting in Brussels

Ukraine has called an emergency meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Commission (NUC) for Monday to discuss the fighting in southeastern Ukraine, Ukrinform news agency quoted Deputy Chief of the Ukrainian Mission to NATO for Political Affairs, Yegor Bozhok, as saying. “The head of Ukrainian Mission to NATO, Igor Dolgov, called on the NATO Secretary General to convene an emergency meeting of the Commission Ukraine-NATO to discuss the current situation and further action,” Bozhok said. He added that the mission activated the mechanism for crisis consultations with NATO in accordance with the Charter on a Distinctive Partnership between Ukraine and NATO. According to RIA Novosti, the meeting will take place in Brussels.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 26 Jan 2015 15:08

Phillip,

This is a new afghanistan. Except Russia has real issues so it cant do a afghanistan style retreat here. Eukranian army is already prepared, these declarations of boost to the east are done after the boost, not before.

The opposing side has shown it will make the conflict assymetrical too. And that is uncomfortable for OSCE in the short term. Look for them to wiggle out of their responsibility while maintaining presence.

The rest will remain hot for the year, just how hot, remains the question. Russia does not want ukraine foisted upon it. West is saying it will cost the same, in sanctions either way.

Meanwhile, syrian training has started. The news in the Spring will first come from there. Then ukraine.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 26 Jan 2015 18:27

The kick in the backside after the failed attempt by the UKR to retake the Donetsk airport has sent alarm bells ringing in the choco soldier's HQ in Kiev. The Mariupol incident has also seen a quivering of knees,as an afeared Russian ,oops1....DR militia offensive in the east to further stabilize control of the territory under its civilian control may be imminent.

http://rt.com/news/226315-ukraine-state ... ncy-alert/

kiev introduces state of emergency in Donbass, high alert across Ukraine
Published time: January 26, 2015 13:03

Ukrainian servicemen stand guard on a street in Mariupol, eastern Ukraine, January 24, 2015 (Reuters / Nikolai Ryabchenko)
The Ukrainian government has introduced the state of emergency in the war-torn south-eastern Donetsk and Lugansk Regions, and put all other territories on high alert, Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk announced.

"In accordance with the Ukrainian Code of Civil Protection, the Cabinet of Ministers has adopted a decision to recognize an emergency situation at a state level. The Ukrainian government has decided to impose the state of emergency in the Donetsk and Lugansk Regions," Yatsenyuk is cited as saying by Interfax-Ukraine.

According to the PM, the move is aimed at providing the most efficient coordination of all government agencies in order to ensure civil protection and the safety of the population.

The statement was made after the field meeting of the Cabinet of Ministers, which took place at the headquarters of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Kiev on Monday.

READ MORE: Putin: Ukraine army is NATO legion aimed at restraining Russia

Yatsenyuk also said that the state of emergency in the southeast will be overseen by a special government commission.
It will be headed by the PM himself, with Deputy-PM Gennady Zubko and Emergencies Minister Sergey Bochkovsky being his deputies.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Jan 2015 18:55

Mongols beat the russians and ruled the steppes for around 200 years.The golden horde.

Lest v phorget!

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 26 Jan 2015 20:49

UlanBatori wrote:
Mongols beat the russians and ruled the steppes for around 200 years.The golden horde.
Lest v phorget!

Interestingly, the `Russia' the mongols defeated was at the time, a small kingdom with Kiev as its capital. The Mongols were
defeated by Ivan IV (The Terrible) who ruled from Moscow and considerably enlarged Russia's territory.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 26 Jan 2015 22:48

^^^They beat a lot of Russian principalities including the biggest one in Kiev. And decided who was to rule them for next 200 years. And received tribute from them. Moscow principality grew strong under the Mongol patronage. Moscow was weak and was supported by the mongols who backed the weaker principalities against the larger ones.
Alexander Nevsky, who is lionised in Russia for stopping the expansion of German order of teutonic knights, also paid tribute to the Mongols.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 26 Jan 2015 22:54

http://zeenews.india.com/news/world/put ... 36890.html

Fighting was said to be particularly intense near the government-held city of Debaltseve, halfway between the rebel strongholds of Donetsk and Lugansk, where the military said separatists were attacking with tanks and multiple rocket launchers.

Putin, on a visit to Saint Petersburg, claimed Ukrainian men wanted to flee to Russia because they did not want to become "cannon fodder" in an army that he described as mostly "volunteer nationalist battalions".
"In essence, this is not an army, this is a foreign legion -- in this particular case NATO`s foreign legion, which of course does not pursue the objective of serving Ukraine`s national interests," Putin said.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 26 Jan 2015 22:58

http://rt.com/news/226315-ukraine-state ... ncy-alert/

Kiev introduces state of emergency in Donbass, high alert across Ukraine

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 26 Jan 2015 23:40

http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/phot ... 78321.html

Ukraine hides devastating losses as Russia-backed fighters surge forward

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Jan 2015 02:47

BREAKING: Jets bombing targets around #Deblatseve #Ukraine - Kiev Post

Apparently there is a large UkBapZi force surrounded there, and trying to break out and run away. If they have to surrender I wonder what happens.

habal · Post by **habal** » 27 Jan 2015 07:59

Please watch from 0:20

Look what a reporter accidentally unearths from Ukraine, Mariupol.

UBCN version on this is eagerly awaited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW1JdOXdJkU#t=24

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Jan 2015 09:49

RSoami wrote:http://www.kyivpost.com/multimedia/phot ... 78321.html
Ukraine hides devastating losses as Russia-backed fighters surge forward

What has changed is that Ukrainian media are now starting to question the Govt line. They are starting to match
casualties at hospitals and new graves being dug, with official casualties reported and the discrepencies are big.

With Putin now saying the rebels face a NATO legion, it signals the gloves are off. Either Russia will be less keen to negotiate
with NATO, or it might intervene in the fighting a little more actively.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 27 Jan 2015 11:51

https://pp.vk.me/c621427/v621427497/fb4 ... 9kTJYw.jpg

https://pp.vk.me/c540108/v540108169/144 ... 0IStUM.jpg

Czech tanks being loaded on a Ukrainian AN 225. Looks like an emergency airlift to replace supplies
(otherwise train supply would have been cheaper).

Similar deal was earlier struck with Hungary for 50 old T-72's.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 27 Jan 2015 13:08

Tx RS/Ulan.Here are xcpts. from the report.

Anastasia Vlasova

Kyiv Post+

Radio Free Europe/ Radio Liberty: Mariupol; a strategic and symbolic target for pro-Russian rebels
Associated Press: Rockets kill 30 in Ukrainian city as rebels launch offensive

ARTYOMOVSK, Ukraine – An ashen-faced man in a loose-fitting military uniform shuffles past a blood-soaked stretcher propped against the wall. Slowly stirring a cup of tea, he watches Ukrainian military officials announce the day’s casualties – one killed and 20 wounded.

“Don’t believe what they tell you,” he says, checking the door is closed before continuing.

“There are many, many more. At least 280 were injured in just one day last week and 30 or 40 killed. There were many more killed this week, Debaltseve and Konstantinovka are the worst cities now. I take 18 wounded to Kharkiv myself every day.”

The man, who didn’t want to be named, is a medic in Ukraine’s overstretched, under-resourced army. Clearly traumatized, he speaks quietly and hesitantly, barely audible over the low rumble of artillery fire from the outskirts of town.

His words confirm Ukraine’s worst-kept secret - that the Ukrainian army is drastically understating its casualties. But only now is the scale of that understatement starting to become clear.

On Jan. 22, the director of Kostiantynivka hospital told Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors that in the last two weeks that the number of soldiers admitted has “increased dramatically, with figures comparable to those in August and September 2014.”

Between Aug. 10 and Sept. 3, when Russian troops first entered Ukraine in support of a beleaguered rebel force on the brink of defeat, the Kyiv Post estimates at least 200 servicemen were killed.

Many of the recent casualties are coming from areas around the besieged town of Debaltseve, a strategic rail junction between Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, where thousands of Ukrainian soldiers are struggling to prevent being surrounded and cut off from Ukrainian lines.

The town’s defenders – and its civilian population - have faced an incessant artillery bombardment from three sides since Russian-backed rebels launched a massive offensive all along the front line last week.

With the imminent threat of encirclement, speculation is rife that Ukrainian forces are planning a withdrawal from the isolated position.
But the soldiers themselves remain defiant.

Marian, a 25 year-old infantryman from the 128st Brigade, had shrapnel rip into his ribs and through his shoulder when he was hit by a rocket outside his checkpoint at Chernukhino, just outside Debaltseve.

“I don’t know when it will finish. But in Debaltseve, our soldiers will stay until the end,” he says firmly as he sits in a crowded, crumbling hospital ward with his wounded comrades. “Reinforcements are coming, everything is fine,” he adds.

Their stand has already come at a bloody price. One soldier has a deep scar on his head where shrapnel had torn into his skull, the other heavily bandaged legs from the blast of a rocket-propelled grenade.

Despite heavy casualties, the army itself appears to have minimal resources to deal with wounded soldiers. Civilian hospitals, already ill-equipped and in desperate need of repair, now not only have to deal with vast numbers of wounded non-combatants, but also provide emergency care for soldiers.

“Usually our hospital can provide services for 23,000 people, but now it has to provide services for about 100,000 people,” Olga Vladimirovna, the surgical director of Kurakhove hospital, told the Kyiv Post.

The situation at Artyomovsk central hospital, where the wounded from Debaltseve are brought, is much the same.

“There is so much work I didn’t even sit down today,” says surgeon Dmitriy Bondar, after his last patient is wheeled away on an antique trolley, down a dark corridor with faded, peeling walls.

“There are many soldiers every day. There are many wounded. Always, but in the last three to five days there are so many more. I’m treating between 10 and 15 people every day from Troitskoe, Debaltseve, Popasnoe, and Dzerginsk. We get no more medication from government, only from volunteers.”

Bondar is not as optimistic about the battle for Debaltseve as his patient Marian and his comrades, having seen too many young men just like them leave his care in boxes.

“The situation is bad in Debaltseve, it’s bad everywhere. Yes, the soldiers are still standing at their positions ready to fight. But we don’t see any help coming for them.”

Kyiv Post editor Maxim Tucker can be reached at [email protected] or via

*Well,judging from this report,the gloves are certainly off! Hilarious,a US general awarding UKR choc soldiers medals. It makes utter crap of US howls of dismay about Russian interference in the UKR when it is doing the same thing.

‘If an American General thanks Ukrainian soldiers for fighting, that means he is their general as well’
Published time: January 26, 2015

American General Ben Hodges handed out medals to wounded Ukrainian soldiers, thanking them for fighting for their country, which means the US openly says it is involved in the Ukrainian conflict, political analyst Aleksandr Pavic, told RT.

After the Mariupol shelling, videos appeared on the internet showing armed men wearing uniforms who spoke English sparking allegation that foreign military contractors might be fighting among Ukrainian troops.

RT: We've previously heard claims of Western private military companies active in Ukraine, could that explain the videos?

Aleksandr Pavic: Washington in fact just announced that they are sending American soldiers to Ukrainian this spring to give training to Ukrainian National Guard. And this was announced on January, 22 by the Commander of the US forces in Europe, General Ben Hodges. So they are going to train at least four companies of the Ukrainian National Guard - that’s really direct involvement and I’m sure it won’t end on just that.

RT: Kiev has long been urging the US to support it with arms - something Washington says it hasn't done. Will it one day agree to sell weapons to Ukraine?

AP: Well, arms are coming. I mean Congress has already approved some modest military aid to Ukraine. I think this happened recently, it’s relatively modest. You know there is so little transparency in Washington now. You can actually approve this sort of thing even without Congress, so I’m sure arms are coming in, no question about it. The Ukrainian army was on its knees just a few months ago. Somebody has to be helping them to replace what they lost during the last year and it’s certainly the Americans in the first place.

READ MORE: Military-clad English-speakers caught on camera in Mariupol shelling aftermath

RT: Do you think these videos are true and the West is really fighting on Kiev's side?
Last spring in Donetsk you could hear English-speaking uniformed personnel walking the streets while Donetsk was still in the hands of Kiev. And they were spotted by the locals. When they were spotted somebody started yelling “Blackwater” and they pretty much turned and walked or ran away… Also just a few days ago the chief of US forces in Europe, General Ben Hodges, whom I just mentioned, he visited the central military hospital in Kiev and he was actually handing out decorations, medals, to wounded Ukrainian soldiers, and he explicitly thanked them for their duty to their country, meaning pretty much that America is saying: “This is our war now.”
AP: Absolutely believe they are true.An American General thanking Ukrainian soldiers for fighting for their country, what does this mean? It means that he is their general as well. Pretty much the United States is now openly saying that they are involved in the Ukrainian conflict.

RT: Kiev has also called for an emergency meeting with NATO over the recent escalation of the conflict. What could come of that do you think?

AP: Well, I think unless a country declares war on another country, pretty much if you get caught red-handed you are interfering in the internal affairs of another country, and even so I mean you must justify it in some way so they are still trying to keep a pretense of But somebody is helping the Ukrainian Army. They can’t renew their fighting capabilities by themselves, that’s for certain, and the aid must be coming in from the West. Where else is it going to be coming from?
respecting international law and the UN Charter. So this is the main reason really that they are being very careful not to get caught. But again as we can see they are being supported; it’s just that it’s very spotty evidence.
‘West concerted effort to aid the junta’s repression of the population in the East’

According to foreign affairs expert Nebojsa Malic, videos circulating on the web prove there are Western servicemen involved in activities in Ukraine.

“It could theoretically be Canadian, but it sounds to me like American military. This is perfectly in line with mainstream NATO policy of intervening in Ukraine providing ammunition, weapons and even advisors to the Kiev junta,” he said.

Last week, Malic said Bosnian Minister of External Trade and Economic Relations Boris Tucic “resigned over pressure to sell weapons and ammunition to the Kiev government.”

“So again we’ve got this concerted effort in the West to aid the junta’s repression of the population in the East combined with this propaganda war basically blaming everything on this phantom Russian invasion for which no evidence has ever been produced,” the analyst said.

“Considered that US advisors were working with the Croatians back in the 1990s and that the Kiev government has repeatedly invoked this precedent as something they would like to see there. And considered persistent rumors that former Blackwater, now calling itself Academi, has been involved exactly in that particular area from Odessa to Mariupol,” Nebojsa Malic says that he wouldn’t be surprised if these English-speaking soldiers in East Ukraine are mercenaries.

However, according to the analyst, these people “have some very poor operational security practices otherwise nobody would have spoken English to a local TV reporter if they were trying to keep a secret.” As opposed to “a combat role of various Western volunteers who joined that volunteer battalions out of some personal Nazi sympathies,” these mercenaries are playing “a sort of advisory guidance role.”

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 27 Jan 2015 16:54

After Putins recent statement that Ukr Armies are legions of NATO , I suspect the battle lines are drawn and there would be any peace plan in near future.

More sanctions will come on Russia most likely russia would be blocked from SWIFT and russia might just dump the Euro/USD and start trading energy in Renminbi and orienting its economy toward brics and asia by end of this decade.

In any case the chinese are more than eager to help russia even when no help was really asked ......so the net gainer in this would be the chinese in short/medium run and brics in the long

The net loosers are the EU they seem to loose every thing and US is willing to play it till the last dollar with nothing to loose and every thing to gain

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 27 Jan 2015 18:11

russia might just dump the Euro/USD and start trading energy in Renminbi and orienting its economy toward brics and asia by end of this decade.

IMVHO, The Russians are either very smart or very dumb.
They are white christians just like Europe. The Russian elite almost always looks towards the west much like our own chintoo PM Nehru. Unlikely that they are gonna change course this time when they have not in the last 200 years of hostility from Europe.

Also the russians still continue to harbour suspicions regarding China.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Jan 2015 19:26

habal wrote:Please watch from 0:20

Look what a reporter accidentally unearths from Ukraine, Mariupol.

UBCN version on this is eagerly awaited.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW1JdOXdJkU#t=24

What is that? I couldn't recognize it.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Jan 2015 19:27

Russia got junked on the ratings end. Speaks volumes about how the ratings are more about politics than anything else.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Jan 2015 20:39

Not necessarily American. British (Aht-my face...Ahta-my face, please!) or South African? Doesn't sound Australian or New Zealand, but too little to go on. Could be New Yorker to talk that fast? Definitely not French or German, and probably not Dutch. Not Scandinavian. Not Israeli, not Indian, not Paki, not Arab. I haven't heard many S. Africans speaking English. When they do it is only like Herschel ***King Gibbs, or Andre ***king Nel, who include a reference to 3-star royalty between any 2 words. So a South African should have said

Outta my ***king face!

This is someone trained to be polite and correct but very firm with news media even when very excited. But not sufficiently so, to have seized and smashed the camera to avoid having that released. How many aam soldiers are trained that way? Definitely a specialist/advisor of some sort.

Maybe from the Grand Duchy of Fenwick.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 27 Jan 2015 20:52

As UBNC predicted yesterday:

Its military said seven Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 24 wounded in intensified clashes in the past 24 hours, with heavy fighting at Debaltseve, a small town the rebels have vowed to encircle to safeguard their main strongholds.

Ivan, a 35-year-old who fled Debaltseve months ago but spoke earlier on Monday to relatives inside the town, said it was almost entirely surrounded by the rebel advance.

"It's been almost impossible to get through for the past 48 hours. The road is being shot up by separatists. There is no electricity, no water. The hospital is all smashed up and the shops aren't working," said Ivan, who declined to use his surname for security reasons.

"Ukrainian troops are still holding on in the town, but the question is how long they can hold on without more support."

The military has reported civilian casualties at Debaltseve without giving any figures...It remains to be seen how far the rebels intend to push their advance. Western governments that suspect the Kremlin's hand is behind the rebels have long said they believe Putin's goal is a stable "frozen conflict" on Ukrainian territory.

If so, the present advance may be intended mainly to push government troops further from Donetsk and Luhansk, to make those two strongholds more secure.

Should clear them out to the Dneiper for stability.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 27 Jan 2015 21:43

Deans wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGEMEH- ... l=84503534

English speaking soldier caught on camera in Mariupol (tells the reporter `out of my face' @ 0.13) - shown
on a Ukrainian TV channel.

American military, unmistakable.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 27 Jan 2015 22:11

Ah, so the fun was because of the sounds. I had my speakers muted. Get it now.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 28 Jan 2015 06:23

So we have Russia playing nice with all the islamic countries including pakistan by outlawing any free speech against islam, and works with Turkey to keep the oil flowing into EU, so basically this ensures that US/EU cannot use islamists against russia like they did in the past. That may also be why all the US is playing extra nice to KSA and Pakistan too -- getting KSA to keep oil prices low to hurt Russia's economy is the new reason why KSA is USA's bestest friend still.

US has hurt russia by
(a) cutting off economic relations with EU and sanctions
(b) keeping ukraine burning for the short to medium term
(c) Getting oil prices to crash with its rentboy KSA

weaknesses:
(a) ensuring KSA continues to keep prices low for as long as possible which may get harder over time if the locals start to feel the pinch but the royals don't -- this is where Russia and Turkey may cooperate to have ISIS take down the royals

Russia has responded by:
(a) roping in turkey to have access to EU
(b) making defensive moves to ensure Abkhazia and other border states don't go the ukraine way
(c) not giving a reason to the Saudis and islamists to target russia by going the opposite way on the free speech issue etc. (not sure how much this helps)
(d) restarting nuclear sub patrols in the oceans
(e) instensifying the fight into Ukraine big time in the short term

weakness:
(a) weak economy cannot support too many military moves so there must be moves to keep the economy going well even without getting the income from high oil margins
(b) need to find new economic partners to replace US/EU

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Jan 2015 06:49

It is a festering sore. Notice that no one talks about Georgia and its infamous Presidente any more, since the misadventure some years ago left him with brown pants under his SUV in the street in Tbilisi.

Lesson 4 Comrade Vlad: End the mess. Send in a vodka convoy, encircle the UkBapzis, force a surrender and release them only after a complete ceasefire with the LOC on the entire Dneiper river. Artillery trained on downtown Kiev, the UkBapzi junta deposed.

The Sanctions won't be any worse than they are now.
The way I see it, the PetroDollar is being uprooted, but because oil prices are so low, the price of gold is not shooting up (yet). But the Saudis will close the tap once the Frackers and renewable energy companies and Carbon Reduction Equipment Manufacturers have been acquired by the oil producers, or been driven out of bijnej.

As oil prices rise again, gold will be the 'new' petrocurrency, I think. Russia will be rich again, sanctions or no.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 28 Jan 2015 07:38

Mr Batori, with due respekt, what good will that do? Suppose the response had been along Georgian lines. Crimea would still be "disputed" and Odessa would be a bigger NATO port than it is and US destroyers would be wandering into sevastopol on friendly visits along the lines of Georgia.

And more than 5,000 lives would have been lost.

Now, can the response be Georgia now? No. Because the repair that has been done to the right sektor over the past year will ensure major destruction and large scale casualties.

And after that, who takes care of the peace-poor ukranians? Ukraine was surviving barely by selling its crown jewels. Now they are beholden to IMF. And like vodka, champagne has been flowing from the west continuously.

Short of raising the stakes to full scale Nuclear conflict, there isnt a solution. And if that happens, guess who is more confident of coming out More or less intact.

Oil prices are not going to 60/stable for a while. Russia has a problem at its hands in the shape of 10s M ukrainians. I dont think Russia is going back to any "rich" status any time soon. In fact, there is better than 50% chance of new gorbhochevization and the number of countries rising by another 10. Think how quickly siberia would be "recognized" should the opportunity arise.

It is largescale warfare, under cover along the lines of syria. Or Yemen, or Sudan, or Somalia, or Mali. No one wants to see media coverage of it. And there is no real media access or capability/influence.

There is no discussion except vilification of russia, everywhere, including in social media. That is scary. Russia has no real weapons to fight this trend. And there isnt sufficient time to rearm like china. I dont see a positive for russia.

There was no benefit to taking over ukraine. There isnt one now. Re. currencies, I know nothing.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 28 Jan 2015 09:08

I don't know I Russia wants to fight now at all, UB. Will be most surprising. But then I do also think that the NATO is egging Russia on! Russia and Putin is surely caught between a rock and a hard place and EU is playing spooky too.

It will be lovely if Greece moves out of EU. Now, that will be tectonic shifts. And Russia has already made noises to Greece that it doesn't mind lifting sanctions if Greece does indeed walk out. Heh. The larger qn ofcourse will also be what kind of levers are going to be applied on Greece. On Germany. on EU. By whom and on whom. etc. And of course the elephant in the room: How long will this motley bunch of Greece coalition of the willing last. Though it doesn't look like it influences the Uk crisis, it will be a seminal moment and can tip the scales one side or the other.

It will be a political game that will be played from here both in Ukraine and Russia. I don't quite know how they can ever get into a mil battle and wrest control. Any side. It will be a full fledged war and will be nuclear.

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 28 Jan 2015 09:23

The most fundamental aspect of ukraine conflict is its population of $46M and its size. If this country somehow made to fight against Russia then they can tie it down for a long time (worst case) or they can make Russia subservient to western interest (near infinite natural resources) as best case.

It is a matter of time when chocolate soldier will sound like zulphucker ali bhutto and say they will 'eat ~~grass~~ snow' but will keep fighting ruskies. This is a long term play.

All west needs is willing condoms like in Pakis. Ukrainians have amply demonstrated that they will put Pakis to shame.

Putin, sometimes, shows MMSities thinking there may be a possibility of homecoming, which will not happen in the short and medium term.

Limiting themselves to Crimea is like us limiting to current J&K in 1949. Putin is well advised to review the case.

Better strategy would have been that of China's Tibet strategy but also difficult for Russia to do as defender of the existing world order.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 28 Jan 2015 09:46

Greece is a non entity, trying to save its own hide and will never carry even cuba level importance. They may walk out of EU (fat chance), but never out of NATO. Greeks are not relevant here.

NATO will expand east, and that is the EU in uniform. All this good cop bad cop is useless.

I find it remarkable that the same folks who are so adept at judging complex undertones of the indian culture, economy, and commerce then turn around and assign these super power to outsider politicians. Everyone is poking in the dark, or pokering if you will.

Russia sat still at Libya. Tried to stop Syria, wont be able to anything re. ukraine. The part they dont control has already been usurped.

No one, not even Russia has the answer as to what an acceptable end game is. Ukraine has made a j&k out of crimea, let alone donetsk. And while russians ought to be grateful that crimea isnt being shelled it is a matter of when, not if.

Putin is after all, a politician. The russians are isolated even from those who want them to succeed. And they have never been in this situation before. Internally, there exist all manner of pussy riot. Externally, there is hardly a friend left. Syria. Who else?

This is not a matter of currency, nor weapons. Slowly, Putin will turn into Hitler. And its nkt Putin the person, it is the russian administration. In parallel, the russian forces are being made luftwaffe via MH17 and the like. Any stray bullet is a war crime if it flies west.

In a year, Russia has been isolated, rated junk, sanctioned, and for all practical purposes parked next to North Korea.

And worse of all, the western population could care less.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 28 Jan 2015 09:52

One year before Maidan protests, Ukraine politican goes into details of how the 'flower' revolution is going to be orchestrated

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9hOl8TuBUM[/youtube]

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 28 Jan 2015 10:06

AFAICT, Russia is not all that weak yet, and the ratings con game is not really relevant unless western investment is involved, which is not the case for Russia now. West Ukrainians maybe the first ones to decide they don't want to be cannon fodder in this war, but it is not like they have much of say in such matters, but if they rise up against the kiev crowd, the war may fizzle out, since the US/west is not going to put its troops on the ground. Non western coverage of Ukraine helps putin up the ante -- war crime trials by the kangaroo courts of the US/EU will be ignored. Not sure Russia is that much of a pushover to splinter apart with the kind of economic pressure applied so far -- though a few more years of these sanctions not being countered by russian parliament with some solid economic planning will really mess with them. This is going to be long and ugly, all thanks to the global leaders of freedom and democracy starting new wars when the old ones start to fizzle out.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 28 Jan 2015 10:21

^^^ You are waiting for a revolution in kiev. They are acting for one in Moscow.

Freedom, Freedom, Freedom, Oy!

Yemen is coming along well. Turkey has had its riots. Jordan will join in soon enough. Really saudi is the odd man out in the near term as far as missing actors go. Then the east/west firewall will be complete. With Russia stuck in the east of it.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 28 Jan 2015 10:23

This is an excellent analysis. Perhaps it also has significance for India's strategy regarding Pakistan.
_____________________

http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com/2015/ ... peace.html
SUNDAY, JANUARY 25, 2015
"Putin's counter-intuitive 8 point peace plan for the Ukraine"

There is a lot of speculation about Putin's end goal. They range from "Putin wants ton conquer the Ukraine and then Moldova, the Baltic States and (who knows?) even Poland" to "Putin's wants to back-stab Novorussia and sell it in exchange for Crimea". And these are not just empty speculations, because your assessment of what is happening today will largely depend on what you believe Putin's end goal is. For example, if you believe that "Putin is about to sell-out" theory, then the Minsk agreement is just the first phase in a general surrender of Novorussia to the Nazis. But if you believe that Putin's end-goal is to regain control all (or most) of the Ukraine, then the Minsk agreements are just a way to keep the junta at bay while giving it the time to commit economic suicide before striking. So what is Putin's end goal?

Putin's 8 point peace plan:

The Ukrainian newspaper Zerkalo Nedeli, UA, has recently published a fascinating article entitled "Blood Topography" which made a detailed analysis of the line of separation agreed upon in Minsk and whether it should have included the Donetsk Airport or not (it placed the airport on the Novorussian side). But at the end of the article, the author, Tatiana Silina, writes that according to her sources, Putin's real peace plan for the Ukraine is composed of all of the following elements:

The federalization of the Ukraine (even if under another label such as "de-centralization").
A special status for the LNR and DNR which would include the creation of a purely local political authority not subordinated to Kiev.
A full budgetary autonomy.
Full freedom to chose the official language
Full cultural freedom
The right to "chose the vector of economic integration"
The Ukraine must be declared a neutral state
All of the above must be explicitly stated in the Ukrainian Constitution.
Tatiana Silina added "Putin's methods may have changed, but not his goal: to attach the Ukraine to Russia".

Now here is where it gets really interesting. Consider this: how is it that Silina begins by listing 8 goals which (apparently) are designed to separate the Donbass as much as possible from the Ukraine and then concludes that these goals are designed to attach the Ukraine to Russia? This is a crucial question, so let me repeat it again:

Why does separating the Donbass from the rest of the Ukraine attach the Ukraine to Russia?

The second question is not less important, and it flows from the first one

Why does Putin not simply demand the full secession of the Donbass or even its reunification with Russia?

To understand, let's us make a simple but crucial thought experiment. First, let's consider if the Donbass fully secedes from the Ukraine and joins Russia and then compare it with Putin's solution.

Novorussian secession:

We assume that Kiev agrees with this (out of political, economic or even military necessity). The Donbass follows Crimea's example and pretty soon becomes the southwestern region of the Russian Federation. The first obvious consequence is that he war stops and that the rump-Ukraine becomes much more unitary. Having lost the potential support of Crimea (gone!) and the Donbass (gone!), other "trouble" regions (Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhie, Chernigov, Kharkov) soon basically give up any notion of resisting Kiev and those who cannot accept a Nazi junta are forced to either shut up or relocate ("encouraged" by the Ukie-Nazi slogan "suitcase - train station - Moscow"). Furthermore, the regime at this point will say that Russia betrayed the Ukraine whose sovereignty she had promised to guarantee when the Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons and that joining NATO is the only way to preserve the rest of the country. The population will mostly agree. There is no Russian language constituency left, so Ukrainian becomes the only language, the Russian language media disappears. The multi-billion effort to rebuilt the Donbass becomes "Russia's internal problem" while the US and EU "aid" is directed only at the comprador elites of the rump Ukraine (aka "privatization" and "opening up of the economy"). This new Ukraine completes the NATO encirclement of Russia from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

Novorussian autonomy inside the Ukraine:

Formally, de jure, the Donbass remains part of the Ukraine and thus it remains represented at the state level: the Rada. Because the LNR and DNR are free to chose their vector of economic development (i.e. join the trade union with Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia), they begin to have a "gravitational pull" on the entire Ukrainian economy. There us *much* more money made in lucrative contracts with Russia then there is by trying to sell something to the EU. The Russian language and culture remain vibrant in Novorussia and the effects of that are felt throughout the Ukraine. In contrast, the Ukrainian language becomes the "dialect of the loser", the sign of the pauper. And because the Ukraine remains constitutionally neutral, NATO simply cannot get in. The economies of all the regions listed above (Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Zaporozhie, Chernigov, Kharkov) become more and more dependent on the "Novorussian special economic zone". Since the West has nothing to offer economically, it can only rely on the west-Ukrainian minority to promote the Empire's interests, which is wholly inadequate to counter the effect of the political and economic power of the eastern Ukraine.

Which of these two scenarios make more sense to you?

The first one basically hands over the Ukraine to the Empire and while the second one uses Novorussia as an unbreakable tether tying the rest of the Ukraine to Novorussia and Russia. In other words, Tatiana Silina is absolutely correct "Putin's methods may have changed, but not his goal: to attach the Ukraine to Russia".

The fact is that to truly (de jure) cut-off Novorussia from the rest of the Ukraine is tantamount to hand over the rest of the Ukraine to Uncle Sam and his EU puppets. Keeping a nominally unitary Ukraine with the Donbass de facto independent makes it possible for Russia to "reel in" the entire Ukraine. And since there can be no safety or security for either the Donbass or Russia with a NATO run Nazi regime in power in Kiev, regime change and the full de-nazification of the entire Ukraine is the only viable long term solution to this conflict. That goal can only be achieved if Novorussia remains nominally part of the Ukraine.

The Saker

Satya_anveshi · Post by **Satya_anveshi** » 28 Jan 2015 10:31

Russia to respond to possible disconnection from SWIFT — PM

"We’ll watch developments and if such decisions are made, I want to note that our economic reaction and generally any other reaction will be without limits," he (Medvedev) said.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 28 Jan 2015 10:45

More devs:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-2 ... ard-russia

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 28 Jan 2015 10:46

Should be instructive to see how EU and US take to the new moves that are on ground. Likely that they will disturb the apple cart and call for fresh elections ASAP so all is well and sound!

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 28 Jan 2015 12:36

UlanBatori wrote:Given everything, it looks like Putin is being forced into a swift move: Take over all the region east of the Dnieper, down south to Crimea, and guard the riverfront. If he does it fast in the winter, there is not much anyone can do about it. What more sanctions are they going to impose?

The time to do that was back in March when the Ukrainian armed forces were in complete dissarray nationwide. Or in September after the Ukrainian army was routed and in full retreat.

Now it's too late. Russia would have to build up a huge invasion force to take all Donbass, and the casualties would be enormous. The Ukrainian military has gotten its act together and is now more formidable than they've been since independence in 1991.