Eastern Europe/Ukraine

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 28 Jan 2015 12:42

Y. Kanan wrote:
UlanBatori wrote:Given everything, it looks like Putin is being forced into a swift move: Take over all the region east of the Dnieper, down south to Crimea, and guard the riverfront. If he does it fast in the winter, there is not much anyone can do about it. What more sanctions are they going to impose?
The time to do that was back in March when the Ukrainian armed forces were in complete dissarray nationwide. Or in September after the Ukrainian army was routed and in full retreat.

Now it's too late. Russia would have to build up a huge invasion force to take all Donbass, and the casualties would be enormous. The Ukrainian military has gotten its act together and is now more formidable than they've been since independence in 1991.

No, No one wants to take the first step it seems. Debaltsevo is about it for now. Even mariupol is not changing hands or being fought over. Putin is certainly not moving too far west.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 28 Jan 2015 13:36

Now it's too late. Russia would have to build up a huge invasion force to take all Donbass, and the casualties would be enormous. The Ukrainian military has gotten its act together and is now more formidable than they've been since independence in 1991.

Really. ?!

They ve made a formidable army in six months. Must ve been the American training.

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 28 Jan 2015 13:43

I think Amirkhan and Oiropeans economy is down in dumps. They need war to kickstart the economy. Now, there seem to be two possibilities:
a) jihad-crusade. Enemy: Eyeran/Syria
b) cold war 2.0. Enemy: Roos

Ukrain, ISIS(Turks?), ...etc are just cannon fodder.

I think Putin is playing for long-term game. He is more interested in saving Russia right now rather than winning Ukraine. Because Ukraine anyway doesn't have much to win.

From Russian perspective, Russia needs to ally closely with China and Bhaarath. And it needs to quickly put an end to the dollar reign. Its the dollars and euro which allow Ukrain to be armed and trained. If the dollar and euro is weakened, then Ukrain will also be weakened.

I think we might be approaching the end of dollar regime and Russia will fire its salvos in that direction. China will be more than happy to oblige.

I think this war will have to be decided on battlefield but by currencies/economies.

Actually, if Putin had not interfered in Syrian thing, then Syria might have already been taken care by now and the war might have proceeded to Eyeran. Putin interfered and saved Syria. I guess that would have made Russia as higher priority because as long as Russia is strong, it will act as a counter-balance.

RSoami wrote:
Now it's too late. Russia would have to build up a huge invasion force to take all Donbass, and the casualties would be enormous. The Ukrainian military has gotten its act together and is now more formidable than they've been since independence in 1991.
Really. ?!
They ve made a formidable army in six months. Must ve been the American training.

Training is over-rated. There is no better training than battle-field experience. How do you think world wars were fought?

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 28 Jan 2015 13:59

Since everybody is giving opinions, I will give mine too.

Russia has the advantage in this game. Mostly because of the connection that Ukrainian economy has to the Russian economy.
The more West tries to damage Russian economy, the more they damage the Ukrainian economy or whatever is left of it, the more they have to pay to keep Ukraine propped up.
Noone loves its money more than the shopkeepers of the west. As much as they are wealthy, they are less willing to pay for Ukraine and suffer than Russia. US and EU together have only agreed to pay $4 billion after much haggling.
Ukraine needs $100 billion in the next 5 years. And that much, if Ukraine gets on the right path and cuts to size the oligarchs and corruption. With the richest of the Oligarchs as president, we can rest assured that will never happen.

Militarily, the ethnic russians constitute 40% of Ukrainian population. Thats not a number that can be subdued. In any power sharing equation NATO will lose out first thing. Putin just have to give some manpads and some arms to the pro-russians and he can keep Ukraine simmering forever. WIth no stability, there will be no economy. And with no economy, West will have to finance 20 million people at least forever.

The EU is in a monkey trap. There wont be any good coming out of it for them at least.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 28 Jan 2015 14:05

RSoami,

You have it wrong. The fears of the populace show a different opinion on the ground.

Unrelated, Youtube has a lot of interesting recent action.

dnivas · Post by **dnivas** » 28 Jan 2015 14:48

counter battery fire with eng sub

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 28 Jan 2015 16:30

You have it wrong. The fears of the populace show a different opinion on the ground.

May be I am wrong. It doesn matter.
Can you elaborate a little more on `populace show a different opinion on the ground`?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Jan 2015 17:24

Now it's too late.

Nope. It is Winter. The time is now. Advantage is on the side of those who have mobility, shelter, food, heat, fuel and ammo. Blow 10 bridges and it's all over for the UkBapZis east of the Dneiper. If 3 are blown there is going to be the proverbial "whoosh" sound of the UkBapZis running to get across b4 the other 7 are blown.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 28 Jan 2015 22:08

http://247wallst.com/energy-economy/201 ... gy-sector/

About the economic reforms that are going to deliver Ukraine from evil russia.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 28 Jan 2015 22:38

Blowup the bridges on the dneiper and it is game over for Kyev, but clearly American military and tech/satellite assets are in place to ensure that such things do not happen. Probably clear to both sides that the bridges across the dneiper are crucial to the survival of the kyev -- Russia is probably also not quite ready to completely burn bridges with the EU, and may have calculated that EU may not go along with the US after a bit (though that seems like wishful thinking to me -- EU is the USA's sockpuppet given that they do not actually have the military/economic resources to defend west ukraine if the USA stays out of the fight).

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 28 Jan 2015 23:11

Tuvaluan wrote:Blowup the bridges on the dneiper and it is game over for Kyev, but clearly American military and tech/satellite assets are in place to ensure that such things do not happen. Probably clear to both sides that the bridges across the dneiper are crucial to the survival of the kyev -- Russia is probably also not quite ready to completely burn bridges with the EU, and may have calculated that EU may not go along with the US after a bit (though that seems like wishful thinking to me -- EU is the USA's sockpuppet given that they do not actually have the military/economic resources to defend west ukraine if the USA stays out of the fight).

Unfortunately, not quite true. The east west separation does not yet run to the dneiper. Blowing up those bridges wouldnt change much for kiev unless there is a threat preventing them from crossing. This is not WW2 style trench fighting. These are small number skirmishes.

Russia doesnt want to openly invade, otherwise if there was utility in blowing up the bridges thrn they would be off by now.

Russians can wait to be kicked off SWIFT, or take proactive action. If they have any cards to play.

chanakyaa · Post by **chanakyaa** » 29 Jan 2015 07:28

... WIth no stability, there will be no economy. And with no economy, West will have to finance 20 million people at least forever.

If TSP, population of 150million, can be kept afloat for 50 year (and counting), why can't Ooikrane be kept afloat? And, you may be mistaken who really is paying for it.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 29 Jan 2015 07:34

kiev still has a lot of territory east of the dnieper before the rebel areas start.

kherson at the mouth of the dnieper is the ideal prize imo as it not only grabs a good chunk of coast, opens a land route to crimea but also acts as a gatepost and tax collector for all traffic flowing in and out of the dnieper to kiev itself from the sea.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 29 Jan 2015 08:08

Yes, Dneiper is too ambitious given that the edge of the fighting is still a while away, and Dneiper curves westward in the north. the link I posted a few days ago has an updated map, and the rebel freedom fighters have made gains in the past week or two but mariupol is still being fought over, so the progress.
Even Kherson is quite a while away from the current rebel front.

http://liveuamap.com/en/2015/24-january ... 421&zoom=8

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 29 Jan 2015 08:25

Its interesting that Donetsk has opened up 3 fronts and keeping at it on all three... just like the Republic President said he would.

Putin had a lot of high cards earlier but with the economy going downhill and the threat of more sanctions and EU not able to move forward on its own, unless Putin wants Russia to turn turtle, he will not be interested in an invasion.

But the funny thing is that whenever there is some kind of a possibility of a deal between EU and Russia, some magical lever comes up and fighting intensifies.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 29 Jan 2015 08:45

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/kot_ivan ... iginal.jpg

This is the most recent situation map. In Russian, but fairly self explanatory. Highlights:

1. Rebels making a serious effort to cut off the Ukrainian salient into Debaltsevo (Дебальцево). They have reportedly made
further progress since this map.
2. Rebels have advanced a bit, west of Donetsk - along both the roads leading to the city. Ukies attempting a counterattack,
North and South of the city (blue arrows).

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 29 Jan 2015 08:51

But the funny thing is that whenever there is some kind of a possibility of a deal between EU and Russia, some magical lever comes up and fighting intensifies.

The presence of american trainers and the weekly trips of the high command of the western ukraine govt. to USA says all this is being remote controlled to ensure the EU and Russia don't patch up ever again.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 29 Jan 2015 08:53

^^exactly. that's whats I meant without stating that. Nowadays suspect that the American freaks don't want a bilateral talk between SK-NK either!
Been seeing the same pattern there too.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 29 Jan 2015 09:01

Remember reading some american realist strategist who talks about dividing adversaries up into smaller states so that there are fewer competitors for the US over time -- hooking up with the next rising power (china) allows US to remain on top of the heap for longer, and that also means ensuring that no other power can challenge this duopoly. This also means doing the mafia thing of ensuring no other challenger coalitions coalesce, like a EU-Russia coalition.

Added later: this whole asia pivot crap is like a generalization of the above idea, you alternatively aid future powers to the minimum possible extent to reduce the risk of newer powers challenging you or getting overtly hostile to you.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 29 Jan 2015 17:48

http://rt.com/op-edge/227039-ukraine-usa-financial-aid/

US seeks to swallow Ukraine to exploit resources, bring it into NATO’
Published time: January 28, 2015

Ukrainian Finance Minister Natalia Yaresko (R) listens as U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew speaks during a joint news conference in Kiev January 28, 2015.(Reuters / Gleb Garanich)

The US, along with West-controlled financial institutions, plans to take Ukraine into its economic, financial and military orbit, Richard Becker from the Answer Coalition told RT.

RT: Is there any hope that Western financial aid will improve the situation in Ukraine?

Richard Becker: I think it’s extremely doubtful if there is any hope at all. In reality the government, the previous government and the present government, agree to terms that impose austerity on the people of Ukraine. And we’ve seen that everywhere this kind of bailout or this kind of financial aid has been extended to countries it has always resulted in problems, severe problems: dislocation, unemployment, loss of subsidies, lowering of standards of living for the great majority of the people in those countries. And we believe it’s very likely to be the same with Ukraine.

READ MORE: Ukraine to receive €1.8bn from EU

RT: What is the role of the United States in the Ukrainian conflict in your opinion?

RB: Well, I think that it’s important to take note of the reason why that conflict is going on at all. And this is due to the intervention of the United States and some of the major powers, major countries in the European Union, who have intervened vigorously and I would say illegally in the affairs of Ukraine going back for quite some time now and leading to the overthrow of the Yanukovich government, the coup that took place overthrowing him. And we should remember that the US has sent some of its top personnel in, and is continuing to do the same thing, the Secretary of the Treasury I believe is going there now. And the IMF is an institution which is also largely controlled by the US, based in Washington DC. There is nothing good that’s going on here from the point of view of people in Ukraine whether people understand that, realize that or not. This agenda of the United States government is one of bringing Ukraine into its orbit in a permanent kind of way, in its economic orbit, its financial orbit and its military orbit. And this is what’s really going on. And I think this is why that’s understood by many people in Ukraine who are resisting this agenda.

RT: Why did the US intervene in this conflict back then?

RB: Well again I think it’s important to remember that what set off the demonstrations of November 2013 by right-wing forces…was an offer by Russia and on much better terms to help Ukraine overcome its debt crisis and its financial crisis. And the Yanukovich government was willing to accept that and was trying to play a balancing game between Russia and Western Europe and the US. But that was not acceptable to the US. And the US agenda has bent to take Ukraine into its orbit and the US intervened very strongly trying to bring this about. But of course Ukraine could find the way out of the financial crisis and it would make more sense, it would have seemed for them to take the Russian offer which was on much better terms, and Russia of course being a close neighbor and trading partner and so forth. But as long as the austerity agenda is in place that is headed by giant banks of the West-ruled institutions like the IMF and the World Bank there is no hope that Ukraine will a see real recovery at least the recovery from the point of view of the majority of people.

READ MORE: US increases Ukraine support to $2bn

RT: What can we expect from the US Treasury Secretary being involved?

RB: Again, nothing good. The Treasury Secretary, the finance minister of the United States, always represent the big banks and that has been a pattern over and over again. They shuttle back and forth between the biggest banks like JP Morgan Chase and Goldman Sachs and others and their positions inside the finance ministry of the US also which is called here the Treasury Department… But their agenda is not the agenda of the people of the US, they certainly do not have the interest of the Ukrainian people, and what they are doing is seeking to advance the interests of those that they truly represent which are the giant international multinational banks.

RT: The Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko seems not to fulfill promises he once made. What is your attitude towards him?

RB: Well Poroshenko is a very rich man supported by even richer interests, more powerful interests from outside and the fact that you have big corporate capitalist governments in Western Europe and in the US praising him despite as you said he has a record of not being able to fulfill the promises that he made.. something that we don’t find unusual for politicians in the US and probably also elsewhere. But the fact that they are praising him has nothing to do with his role in helping the people of Ukraine … But they praise him because he is really pursuing and furthering their agenda in regard to Ukraine. And you know their hope is to swallow Ukraine to be able to exploit its tremendous natural resources, the labor of the people and to bring eventually Ukraine…into NATO. So that’s why Poroshenko is being praised despite his real record.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 30 Jan 2015 02:49

http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/archi ... ugar-r-i-p

This is from a Non-prol ayotollah and the end of the nunn-lugar bill indicates that the cold war is back on, with ukraine as the first proxy battle ground. This time US will ensure the destruction of the soviets (or maybe ensuring a regression to the loathesome cold war days)? The world will suck again for a while until all of this is done, thanks amreeka, for bringing freedom and democracy out of your bunghole and dumping it on the rest of the planet.

20 years of temporary "cold war peace" interrupted by 2 wars before resuming the cold war again. splendid.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Jan 2015 03:10

The east west separation does not yet run to the dneiper.

Which is why I say, just blow up 3 to show friendly intentions. The UkBapzis will destroy the rest (or not, who cares?) in their rush falling over each other to get back west before the vodka carriers come rolling up.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Jan 2015 06:48

Tuvaluan wrote:http://krepon.armscontrolwonk.com/archi ... ugar-r-i-p

This is from a Non-prol ayotollah and the end of the nunn-lugar bill indicates that the cold war is back on, with ukraine as the first proxy battle ground. This time US will ensure the destruction of the soviets (or maybe ensuring a regression to the loathesome cold war days)? The world will suck again for a while until all of this is done, thanks amreeka, for bringing freedom and democracy out of your bunghole and dumping it on the rest of the planet.

20 years of temporary "cold war peace" interrupted by 2 wars before resuming the cold war again. splendid.

As long as the US remains strong, it will always seek to create chaos, strife and warfare all over the planet. The US govt always uses the word "stability" but they want nothing of the sort. Their entire foreign policy is designed to keep the US military industrial complex well well fed with taxpayer dollars. The perscription is endless war, everywhere. Today Ukraine and the Middle East, tomorrow Central Asia and the Caucasus, after that who knows? Latin America again? Perhaps India?

I've said it before and I'll say it agian: the US is the single biggest threat to world peace, surpassing even China, Pakistan and the Sunni Gulf kingdoms when it comes to troublemaking on a grand scale.

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 30 Jan 2015 06:55

johneeG wrote:From Russian perspective, Russia needs to ally closely with China and Bhaarath. And it needs to quickly put an end to the dollar reign.

If that was a goal, they failed miserably. The ruble has plunged and the dollar is stronger than ever.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 30 Jan 2015 07:38

Y. Kanan wrote:
johneeG wrote:From Russian perspective, Russia needs to ally closely with China and Bhaarath. And it needs to quickly put an end to the dollar reign.
If that was a goal, they failed miserably. The ruble has plunged and the dollar is stronger than ever.

Currency manipulation is the easiest trick in their armor.

usd in taka 77.2
usd in rub 68.75

BD reserves 22B, RUS ~400B. The economists of the world are a class below bakistanis. And I learnt that the hard way.

The reported value of a currency has nothing to do with dollar reign. Accept INR like you do Euro, USD, RMB. There is 20B of hard currency rendered useless.

vijaykarthik · Post by **vijaykarthik** » 30 Jan 2015 08:07

Y. Kanan wrote: I've said it before and I'll say it agian: the US is the single biggest threat to world peace, surpassing even China, Pakistan and the Sunni Gulf kingdoms when it comes to troublemaking on a grand scale.

True. When people tell me that Al-Qaeda / IS is the largest terrorist orgn, I usually think: REALLY? Will the CIA not have to be the largest? Followed by MI5, French, Saudi and etc etc.

Al-Qaeda, ISI are non-state actors and terrorists orgn, alright. But the state actors and the govt based terrorist orgns are the guys who create all this reactionary orgns. Lasting peace can never happen unless the state actors use their proxies in the name of 'promoting peace and goodwill'

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 30 Jan 2015 12:32

[quote]

usd in taka 77.2 usd in rub 68.75
BD reserves 22B, RUS ~400B. The economists of the world are a class below bakistanis. And I learnt that the hard way.

The reported value of a currency has nothing to do with dollar reign. Accept INR like you do Euro, USD, RMB. There is 20B of hard currency rendered useless.[quote]

Currency depreciation hurts a country when its imports are more than its exports (e.g. India). In the case of Russia, it consistently
runs a trade surplus - consistently over $ 10 billion per month, which has only improved after imports from EU slowed and its
depreciating currency made its exports more attractive and non essential exports costlier.
Russia's imports in 2014 fell 26% (EU was the biggest loser) and while its exports also fell about 21% the biggest drop in exports was to Ukraine - which perversely harms Ukraine more than Russia.

On the other hand, Ukraine, despite the best efforts of EU, saw its currency depreciate by 76% in the past year. Since it
imports more than it exports, its a double whammy, made worse by the fact that they have to pay triple the earlier US$ price
for their biggest import - Oil & Gas from Russia.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 30 Jan 2015 13:52

Situation map of 27th Jan, in English. This one shows the strength of all Ukrainian units in the theatre.

http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/dragon_f ... iginal.jpg

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 30 Jan 2015 17:09

Big mistake keeping the fighting confined to this region. Comrade Vlad needs to blow some bridges and give the UkBapZis something to really think about. Where is Force 10 from Tunguska?

If you saw the earlier report on casualties, they are being taken to the hospital in DnieproPetrovsk, west bank of the river. IOW, there is not much strength east of the river except for those force concentrations near the frontlines of the Donetsk Free Republic. Blow bridges, and those concentrations will have to scatter - or at least their supply lines will be gone, meaning death in winter.

Hope Comrade Vlad has read his history books well.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 30 Jan 2015 17:40

for the moment, there is no indication that russia is interested in anything larger thsn skirmishes. there is no rhyme/reason visible to the events, even for something as small as debeltosevo. ground realities are probably doing their thing with minimal outside advice.

why? I have no idea. The US took over iraq, Afg with far less reason. And Yemen is shaping up as the next colony without much fuss.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 30 Jan 2015 23:30

udaym wrote:
... WIth no stability, there will be no economy. And with no economy, West will have to finance 20 million people at least forever.
If TSP, population of 150million, can be kept afloat for 50 year (and counting), why can't Ooikrane be kept afloat? And, you may be mistaken who really is paying for it.

Ukraine is much closer to Europe. It is white and christian. Everything there is going to be analysed deeply.
For example, US is happy to keep Pakistanis afloat by just arming them. They dont really care much for who is ruling them and how many are dying from hunger etc.
Since its Europe, it will cost them a lot more. Both in financial terms as well as psychological terms. Few Europeans would question arming a terrorist entity like Pakistan. Many many more europeans will start asking questions if an unpopular right wing Junta continues to rule Ukraine and bomb its own people.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 30 Jan 2015 23:39

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/30/europ ... ne-crisis/

12 civilians have died in Donetsk as the city centre is being shelled.
One can safely assume that Ukraine`s goose is cooked for good. It is unlikely to stay as a unified country after such bloodbath.

RSoami · Post by **RSoami** » 30 Jan 2015 23:53

https://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-p ... 79003.html

Looks like Debaltseve is going to fall soon too. So much for the `formidale Ukrainian military`. They are evacuating.

Tuvaluan · Post by **Tuvaluan** » 30 Jan 2015 23:57

Given how debaltsev is surround on 3.5 sides out of 4 -- it is only a matter of time surely. How long before Mariupol falls I wonder.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 31 Jan 2015 08:31

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWN2qPw ... 4404#t=145

Clip showing captured Ukrainian tanks and rebels. The video gives some idea of what the rebels are like
- seem a pretty ordinary bunch of guys not acting like a regular (Russian) military unit - contrary to what Ukies claim.
The sign on one of the tanks is `Viking', presumably after a notorious SS Division that operated there in WW2.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 31 Jan 2015 08:47

Tuvaluan wrote:Given how debaltsev is surround on 3.5 sides out of 4 -- it is only a matter of time surely. How long before Mariupol falls I wonder.

https://pp.vk.me/c621720/v621720011/f19 ... 7LEqIU.jpg

This pic is from the town of Avdeevka, ( to the West of Donetsk airport), which is supposed to be a staging area
for the Ukies to mount another attack on the airport. However, the tank & BMP in the pic are in hull down position, dug in,
as if to await an attack. They are also very close to a residential building - since its a pro Russia area, Ukies are probably
hoping their position won't be targetted by rebel artillery.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 31 Jan 2015 14:03

http://rt.com/news/228043-ukraine-confl ... sia/[quote]
Ukraine chief of staff ‘thwarts Western allegations’ by admitting no combat with Russian troops
Published time: January 30, 2015 23:17
Members of the armed forces of the Donetsk People’s Republic drive a tank on the outskirts of Donetsk, January 22, 2015. (Reuters / Alexander Ermochenko)

The Ukraine army’s chief of staff has admitted that Kiev troops are not engaged in combat with Russian units, thereby thwarting all Western allegations of Moscow's “military invasion,” said Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov.

“Yesterday afternoon the Chief of the General Staff – Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine – Viktor Muzhenko officially acknowledged during a briefing for foreign military attachées that Russian troops are not involved in the fighting in the country's southeast,” Konashenkov said on Friday.

Given the fact that Muzhenko directly supervises military operations in the southeast, “his statement is a legal fact, which thwarts numerous accusations made by NATO and Western states” concerning Russia's alleged “military invasion” in Ukraine, the spokesman added.

The Russian Defense Ministry, however, was puzzled by a statement from Muzhenko's subordinate, Sergey Galushko, made several hours later. According to Galushko – an employee of the Department of Information Technology – Russian troops are located in the so-called “second echelon.”

READ MORE: Multiple deaths after shelling of humanitarian aid center, bus stop in Donetsk

On Thursday, Muzhenko said “the Ukrainian army is not engaged in combat operations against Russian units.” He added, however, that he had information about Russian individuals fighting in the country’s east. He also said the Ukrainian army has everything it needs to drive off armed units in Donbass. His speech was aired by Ukraine's Channel 5 television, owned by President Petro Poroshenko.

Ukrainian servicemen sit atop armoured personnel carriers (APC) (Reuters / Valentyn Ogirenko)
Ukrainian servicemen sit atop armoured personnel carriers (APC) (Reuters / Valentyn Ogirenko)

Commenting on Muzhenko’s statement, Galushko said that reporters were only allowed at the open part of the meeting. He said that later, during the closed part, the chief of general staff said that Russian units are “in the second tier.”

Muzhenko himself did not elaborate on the initial statement.

Kiev began a military assault on eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Lugansk regions in April 2014, after they refused to recognize the country’s new, coup-imposed authorities. According to UN estimates, more than 5,000 people have died as a result of the conflict.

READ MORE: US plays ‘instigator’s role’ in Ukraine crisis – Russian UN envoy

Since the start of Kiev’s military operation, Ukraine and Western states have repeatedly alleged that Russia has a military presence in the country's east. Moscow has refuted those claims on multiple occasions.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov reiterated Moscow’s arguments on Wednesday, calling on those who believe the opposite to prove their point. “I say it every time: if you are so sure in stating that, confirm it with facts. But no one can or wants to provide them,” he said.

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said it has not registered any movement of military vehicles at the Russia-Ukraine border checkpoints it observes, according to a statement made on January 22.
[/quote]

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 01 Feb 2015 03:52

RSoami wrote:https://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-p ... 79003.html

Looks like Debaltseve is going to fall soon too. So much for the `formidale Ukrainian military`. They are evacuating.

You're not hearing about Russian casualties. We don't know how may Russian "volunteers" have already died in Ukraine but it's almost definitely in the thousands. The numbers of aggrieved mothers, friends and family members talking about their sons coming back to be buried in unmarked graves is alarming. The scale of Russian eqpt losses is also alarming, including scores of tanks and AFV's, to say nothign of the vast quantities of rockets, shells and other heavy ordnance being expended. Even if you ignore the thousands of Russian dead, this effort has been very, very expensive for Russia.

I think the Ukraine rebels and the Russian troops fighting alongside them have suffered far more than most of us realize. And most of this is Putin's fault. By showing weak leadership and dithering endlessly, he's allowed the Ukraine situation to become a real meatgrinder for the Russian armed forces. If Putin was a real leader he'd have either stopped at Crimea and made peace, or invaded and taken all of Donbass back in March when the Ukrainian army was in dissaray. It could have been done almost bloodlessly at that time; Russia would have suffered the sanctions but little else. But now, with all that's happened, it's too late for any outcome other than a Russian Pyrrhic victory or an outright Russian defeat.

Shreeman · Post by **Shreeman** » 01 Feb 2015 06:02

There is no doubt Russian casualties are quite large.

But there is no point in arguing about Putin, the individual. All previous ground rules have been abandoned and no one anywhere predicted this. There is no other alternative, is there? The EU/US have made an India/Pakistan out of it and would have had Ukraine in NATO otherwise.

They arent rushing to embrace turkey, but no problems with respect to east europe.

What is the solution going forward? Russia withdraws and there is a slaughter of russians in east ukraine.
Russian expands to the west and US/EU impose more sanctions. Russia stays put and US/EU take their time to expand sanctions.

The bridge to Crimea is a start.

Cuba is still a terrorist nation. Guantanamo is never going back to Cuba. Leadership has nothing to do with it. Same applies to east ukraine. Crimea was never ukrainian, that was a nehru==gorbachev thing.

Russia is strong enough to keep up with the state of affairs in ukraine this way. But a cold war at these borders will eventually eat away at it. They need to push back west. And there is no "how far" to it. You push back or get encroached.

china is doing this to India. on multiple fronts. china is doing this to japan, vietnam, phillippines, and so on. Where did it learn this from?

Y. Kanan · Post by **Y. Kanan** » 01 Feb 2015 06:43

Shreeman wrote:There is no doubt Russian casualties are quite large.

But there is no point in arguing about Putin, the individual. All previous ground rules have been abandoned and no one anywhere predicted this. There is no other alternative, is there? The EU/US have made an India/Pakistan out of it and would have had Ukraine in NATO otherwise.

They arent rushing to embrace turkey, but no problems with respect to east europe.

What is the solution going forward? Russia withdraws and there is a slaughter of russians in east ukraine.
Russian expands to the west and US/EU impose more sanctions. Russia stays put and US/EU take their time to expand sanctions.

The bridge to Crimea is a start.

Cuba is still a terrorist nation. Guantanamo is never going back to Cuba. Leadership has nothing to do with it. Same applies to east ukraine. Crimea was never ukrainian, that was a nehru==gorbachev thing.

Russia is strong enough to keep up with the state of affairs in ukraine this way. But a cold war at these borders will eventually eat away at it. They need to push back west. And there is no "how far" to it. You push back or get encroached.

china is doing this to India. on multiple fronts. china is doing this to japan, vietnam, phillippines, and so on. Where did it learn this from?

All true; the Russians had to respond to this encroachment and a new Cold War (sanctions and all) was already inevitable because the US was hell bent on it. I don't dispute anything you said. But I'm glad we don't have a government that tells grieving mothers to shut up and denies them death benefits because its politically inconvenient to admit their sons died fighting for a country that doesn't even appreciate them. As a country, we may sh*t on our vets sometimes, too, but in the end most Indians are better than that. The Russians are (sometimes) a good ally and they have their uses, but I for one am glad we're not like them. It's a good thing we don't have a govt with the kind of far-reaching power and intimidation to keep so many people silent. I'll take our weak, ineffective governance over that kind of oppression any day.